54 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of December 24th”

1. Happy Holidays to everyone. Thanks Jim for keeping this truly great website alive and progressing.

2. Merry Christmas everyone. Hope you all have a safe and happy holiday. And I echo Bellman’s thanks to Jim for making this site a must stop for any Phillie fan…

3. I love this site, and salute you for your hard work. I’m an old man that has followed baseball since the fifties. At first, I was skeptical of the new analytics movement, but I’ve come to realize their importance in the game today. Over the last several decades many of my friends have joined fantasy leagues in football and baseball. I looked into it, and decided that it wasn’t for me. How could I ever justify rooting for the Phillies, but hoping that a player on the other team has a big day? To each their own, and I’m certainly ok with fantasy sports, but it has had an effect on the fans.
   The fans select their teams, and suddenly, many feel that they could be doing a better job than Klentak. They don’t attend the meetings, or join in on Matt’s phone calls, but somehow they have a better grasp on the team than Klentak.
   We, as fans need to blend the past and present technologies. Middleton, MacPhail, and Klentak all know that the greatest computer on Earth will never measure a players Heart and Desire.
   I hope that everyone out there has a Happy Holiday, and that we all pledge to respectfully disagree with each other in the New Year.

   1. Mike,

      Great post in keeping with the spirit of the season and the spirit of this website.

      Heart and desire might be the new name for Scott Kingery, somebody who had to send videos to college coaches just to finally get a non-scholarship invitation, and now he’s on the doorstep of red pin stripes.

      1. I cringe when I hear Kingery’s name being kicked about in trade talks. He’s so much more than another piece on a chessboard.

4. Guys,

   I know it’s only winter league and small sample size, but Luke Williams is putting up some good numbers.

   1. Frank,
      Merry Christmas.
      I have my doubts on the quality of pitching in that league…look at Jorge Alf’s metrics, along with Kyle Martin’s advanced metrics.
      And wonder why , for some reason, they do not even list the Columbian League as a winter league on the MLB website.
      http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/
      http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi

      1. Romus,

         Good point. Thanks.

         Happy New Year.

5. Jim, thanks for all your efforts you put into this site. By far my favorite, and usually my first stop every morning. Happy Holidays!

6. What does everyone want / think our bench will look like in 2018? In my mind Joseph is all ready gone. I don’t see a spot for a RH power hitting, strictly 1st baseman. Obviously an 8 man pen means a 4 man bench. Technically a 3 man bench because one of those spots is must be a catcher. If Rupp is traded I wouldn’t be opposed to signing an AJ Ellis or someone like him & carrying 3 catchers. I’d very rarely ever start the 3rd guy but by carring 3 catchers it would allow Knapp & Alfaro to be used more to PH. If our outfield stays as currently constructed I’d rather not have a guy on the bench that is strictly an outfielder because I believe those guys need to play as much as possible. A utility player like Florimon or Valentin is also a certainty. I highly doubt they’ll do my 3 catcher idea, so our bench will look mostly likely look like

   Catcher – Rupp RH or Knapp S
   Outfielder – Altherr RH
   Utility – Florimon S or Valentin S

   I’d rather they not carry 2 light hitting UT players but it’s a possibility. I’d prefer they find a veteran INF (non 1b) LH bat with some pop

   A quick glance at the available free agents & there’s really nothing very enticing:

   Stephen Drew
   Danny Espinosa
   Conor Gillaspie
   Chase Utley
   Ryan Goins

   I was originally hoping to get Chase Headley in a salary dump. Is there anyone else out there that you think could be a possibility? Prado is surely available but he’s RH. Ben Zobrist is owed a ton of money & has two years remaining. Chicago would have to willing to pay a very hefty portion of his salary or give up quality prospects for me to bite on him.

   Thoughts on Rupp gone / sign AJ Ellis so Knapp/Alfaro can PH more often?
   Would you go with Florimon & Valetin or would you also like to find LH bat?

7. Reports had the Cubs offering infielder Addison Russell, outfielder Albert Almora, and left-hander Mike Montgomery for Manny Machado.
   I wonder what the Phillies had on the table…if anything at all.

   1. Mr Romus, i could be wrong, but I believe that was a proposed trade from a writer.

      1. Boston Globe’s Nick Carfado reported that.
         http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=494479
         Normally they get from their sources, most times, not always, reliable information..

         1. Very interesting. Didn’t realize that was an actual offer. Thank you

         2. I have found Cafardo to be among the most unreliable reporters. Like all Boston hacks, he panders to the Boston fans. I need to hear his stuff from one of the national guys like Heyman or Rosenthal to substantiate. And when I hear it from them, it is before Cafardo has it. It seems he doesn’t get anything before the national guys.

            1. Agreed. Cafardo is to Boston what Eskin is to Philly.

   2. That offer is very light. There’s no way I pull the trigger on that offer if I’m the Orioles. They will certainly do better than that at the trade deadline if Machado is healthy and having a typical season.

8. I consider Theo Epstein to be one of the best team Presidents/GMs around. I can’t believe that was a genuine offer from the Cubs without an extension window for MM. That is light for MM with an extension and way too much for him without one.

   1. That apparently was the issue between great offers and moderate offers…..that is, the 72-hour window to negotiate with Machado and his agent on a LTC.
      Baltimore was not allowing that…..so in effect, they were not going to get many outstanding offers for a one year rental of Machado.
      Why would a GM give up 3 or 4 outstanding prospects for a temporary player with no guarantee he would resign.

9. If I’m the Phillies (without a 72-hour negotiation period with MM), I offer the O’s Franco, Velasquez, and any three other pitchers in the organization aside from Nola and Sixto, along with the latitude to take on extra salary. Franco and VV are high risk, high ceiling guys, reasonable for one year of Manny and the risk of not being able to re-sign him. Duquette has little leverage and whatever he still has is dwindling fast. From their depth and payroll flexibility, there’s no reason why they can’t deal in the “one year only” scenario.

   Otherwise? I wait for Machado to turn free agent after ’18. I ain’t giving up Jetpax or JPC or Sixto unless I’m locking MM up from 5 years (with the probable opt out) up to 12 years.

   1. Why? There’s no reason to give up all those prospects. They still wouldn’t win the series and he won’t sign before FA so there’s NO reason to do it.

      1. 1 – Anyb

         1. 1- Any other team that would acquire MM by trade would most likely be in a position to re-sign him which raises the chances of them actually doing so. Baltimore has virtually NO shot at extending him.

            2 – The 2 MLB players I’m offering are IMO high risk talents which justify the move.

            3 – Having Machado even for one year improves our prospects of winning more games in ’18 while though not necessarily making us a contender, should make us more attractive to next year’s FAs.

            1. 1 – Any team that acquires MM isn’t in any special position to sign him after the 2018 season. It’s unlikely that he’s going to love it so much that he wants to stay without testing the market.

               2 – They MLB players mentioned are certainly high risk players but they are also high reward players. Would be a real failure if either of them become solid players. As for the 3 pitchers that would also be included, that covers many very good arms beyond Nola and Sixto. You’re talking about 3 top-10/top-15 players from a good farm system..

               3 – Having Machado for one year certainly improves the prospects of winning games in 2018 but will mean nothing to 2019 FAs when he’s leaving.

               The only possible reason for trying to trade for Machado in 2018 without a negotiating window is that they can try to extend him and when he confirms that he’s not interested, they then turn around at the trade deadline and move him to try to replace what they traded away to get him..

               1. “3 – Having Machado for one year certainly improves the prospects of winning games in 2018 but will mean nothing to 2019 FAs when he’s leaving.”……only net results in the 31st or 32nd pick in the 2019 draft.
                  Not worth the effort in a trade without him signing.

                  People claim Os will get more for him at the deadline in July…..I do not see it that way…..first, the market is dwindled to just a handful of teams, second, look at Darvish as a prime example…the Os will get possibly one premier prospect and maybe a secondary prospect…and two-month rentals do not get compensation from the acquiring team when the player goes free agent, and no QO is allowed to be offered.

               2. I agree with you Romus that his value is higher now than it will be at the trade deadline if for no other reason than because he cannot be offered a QO after the mid-season trade.

                  My point in the response was that moving him at the deadline would be the only way to try to recoup some of the talent traded to get him. I do not think they would get a better deal..

               3. 3up……yeah, in July, that will be the Os last opportunity to get any value of significance for him..
                  In hindsight, bringing Manny up at age 19 may have been some faulty ‘crystal-ball’ reasoning on the Os management part.
                  But then again In 2012, the team made the playoffs for the first time since 1997. Then In 2014, with Manny only being 21-years old, the Orioles won the AL- East with 96 wins and made it to the ALCS. Many people attribute the success of the Orioles to the management of Buck Showalter and Duquette.

   2. Kingery, Scott Kingery. S C O T T K I N G E R Y!!!! Not “Jetpax”!

      1. You know, I thought I was a curmudgeon. You can post other comments besides those protesting somebody’s nickname. If he turns out to be what many now think, you might have to get used to it.

         1. Curmudgeon? bad-tempered or surly person.

      2. I have no idea why “JetPax” bothers anyone. See Kingery’s MiLB page and look at his Twitter handle. No one on this site gave him the handle. He likes it, if his Twitter handle includes it. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664068#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

         I guess it might upset Fred Flintstone but George Jetson would be fine with it.

         1. bellman1…how about JP8?
            …..he is the fuel that drives the jets! 🙂

         2. That is half the point. You like your own nickname and use it. Corny, like the nickname.

10. Very good piece by David Murphy laying out possibilities for the outfield situation. In the end, he suggests that Nick Williams might be the most viable trade piece in a package to acquire a starting pitcher. But also points out that if all 4 OFs – Hoskins, Altherr, Herrera and Williams – equally shared 162 games, they’d each play 121, and that’s before you factor in Santana’s days off and the 10 road games vs AL clubs where a DH will be used. The Cubs, Cards and Brewers all had 4 OFs last season who accumulated well over 400 PAs. Something to consider.

    Good read by Murphy who used two factors -defensive liability and reliability – to evaluate each player’s feasibility in CF. He also used the gap between ‘what would we get in return’ and ‘what do we lose’ in trading each player.

    1. Of course, he mentioned that it’s reasonable to assume Hoskins would sit the least among the group.

       1. 8mark…so David Murphy thinks Nick Williams would bring back a better starting pitcher/return value than Doobie Herrera?….that is interesting.
          IMO, the Phillies at this point do not need anymore mid-to-bottom rotation arms….they need a top of the rotation arm.
          And unless they go ahead and sign a FA like a Darvish, or hopefully not an Arrieta, what would be the sense in trading for another back end arm.
          All Nick Wiliams at his point is potential off a very good rookie year…and that is what you will get in return…potential pitching.

          1. Romus, I actually don’t agree with Murphy that Williams would bring back a better arm than Doobie. And you know I’m on board with trading the latter. The idea of a 4-man OF, however, has merit. Bottom line – Klentak MUST acquire a very good SP to begin the season.

             1. 8mark….agree , Klentak needs to get that other quality starter from somewhere.
                And as for the OF situation……if Quinn stays healthy, and Cozens and/or Pullin both progress at the palte with the ‘Pigs..then it gets more crowded out there by the second half of the season..

    2. I think this is like any Hernandez trade. no reason at this point to give away talent. plenty of opportunity for completion and for people to play. The goal should be trying to apply organization depth ( an extra OF like Williams , an extra 2b like Hernandez, redundancy in the minor leagues) to try to get top of the rotation or potential top of the rotation starting pitching

       1. the question is “can you get the type of pitching we are looking for with a package of Williams, hernandez, knapp, moniak , minor league starter other than sanchez. I look at those guys as tradable commodities?”

    3. 8mark,

       Nice piece but no mention of Roman Quinn nor of the possibility of Kingery playing centerfield.

       1. Quinn is such a wildcard. He would be a great addition either here or as a trade chip but has to show he can stay healthy. I see him as a 4th OF on the major league team this year ( assuming we trade one of Herrera, Williams or Alther)

       2. Kingery in CF scenario holds no appeal to me. A healthy Quinn will be the last OF, yes.

          1. I agree. by reports, Kingery is plus defense at 2b. Let him settle in there for a long productive career. Its up to Gm to find a way to get value out of Hernandez. that’s his job.

          2. 8mark,

             I agree on keeping Kingery at 2B. Mention the outfield only because it sounds like a plausible possibility if Odubel is traded. Even then, I doubt they do it.

11. For the records, is it me or is this the slowest trade and free agent market ever?
    its January and almost all the major free agents except a run on relief pitchers are still on the market and the only a handful of trades.
    why do people think the market is so slow/
    I have a theory that we are seeing fewer transactions because so few teams are actually trying to win in 2018.
    there are maybe 10 teams or so looking to make a real run at playoffs in 2018
    otherwise you have teams in a rebuild like us or teams starting a rebuild like Detroit, tampa, KC.
    there are only so many players that can go to teams trying to add veteran talent to win in 2018

    1. Largest contract so far this off season over $40M…..you guessed it…Phillies and Matt Klentak to Carlos Santana. Go figure.
       The Stanton/Ohtani/Machado circus events really slowed things down in December….except for the dozen or so 2-year contract signings of relief pitchers.

    2. I think more and more clubs highly value their own young top talent and are therefore reluctant to trade them. This is why I believe the market has become so slow to develop. A lot of experts thought it was because of Stanton and Ohtani. Guess not.

       1. It is not trades that are the main focus of evidenced of the slow market…it is the lack of free agent signings.
          From pitchers like Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, Lackey, miley and Lynn to big bats like JD Martinez, Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Frazier, Holliiday, Logan Morrison, CarGo and Jay Bruce.
          Even our boy Jeremy Hellickson is still out there.

12. I don’t know that it is a question of competing in 2018, I think it is the FA class after next season that has a lot of teams not spending crazy $ this year. When there are rumors that the ask for Arrieta was 6 years and $160M, I can understand why no one wants to sign him. The teams with controllable, young SP with high ceilings, are asking for an awful lot, so those moves haven’t been made because most GMs are from the same school now, and don’t want to over pay. There is a good chance that 2 guys get $400M, or close to it, contracts next year, so a lot of teams are saving for that run.

13. HOPES & DREAMS DEPT:

    Imagine the following opening day roster and all hail Matt Klentak!
    (Could he make it happen…??)

    Catchers(3) – Alfaro, Knapp(S), Fryer (or some other vet)
    Infielders(5) – Santana(S), Kingery*, Crawford(L), Machado**, Florimon(S) (or Valentin)
    Outfielders(4) – Hoskins, Altherr, Williams(L), Quinn(S)

    Rotation(5) – Darvish (or Arrieta or Lynn), Nola, Duffy(L), Eickhoff, Pivetta
    Bullpen(8) – Neris(9), Hunter(8), Neshek(7), Morgan(L), Milner(L), Arano, Ramos, Garcia

    Obviously traded – Herrera, Hernandez, Velasquez, Franco, Rupp, TJ (maybe DFAd?)
    And please don’t ask me to specify who was traded for whom other then the big deals were with KC and Baltimore. I’m lazy, I admit it. (Where’s Hinkie? Let him do the hard work.)

    *Someone posted a good point earlier that if the Phillies are that high on Kingery, they’re likely to want to extend him early (perhaps after his 2nd year) which would make his arb status irrelevant, so then why not promote him? (Though I can see why he could use more seasoning in AAA.)

    **”Insiders” in Baltimore insist that Duquette and the O’s have no hard deadline to move on trading MM. Not suggesting it’s likely that we’ll get him (remember – this is a dream sequence) but I believe it’s more likely that he still will be traded. Baltimore has no sound reason not to.

    Anyway, this would make my 2018 a very happy new year.
    As things stand currently, Fangraphs projects the Phillies to win 78 games. This roster is worth 83-85 (IMO). Let’s roll!!!

14. Condolences and deepest sympathy to former PhuturePhillies owner and writer Matt Winkelman on the recent passing of his mother.

15. On Machado – I’ve been one of the early and biggest Machado to Philly drum beaters, but I no longer see the Phils trading for Machado this season. Any team who will trade for Machado will surrender good players and assets, and the FA is the best opportunity for Machado to get that live changing contract so he will not miss that chance. The Phils will go the FA way to acquire Machado since they can afford to sign another big FA and lure both FA’s to sign.

    On Williams – he will not be fetch the best return – that’s Doobie. But a Williams + Cesar package (and some prospects) might bring a Duffy-type or a #2/#3 type the most.

    On FA signings – although McPhail already said that they will not pay for past performance, thus, not paying big $$ to FAs, I can see the Phils making a play to the FAs that will be significantly discounted.n
    On Yelich and Reamulto – every GM knows that Jeter will trade both sooner that later and Klentak will have Jeter’s cellphone # in his favorites. He will strike to acquire one or both with a combination of top prospects and absorption of bad contracts. Hot start from Alfaro, Randolph, Moniak, Kilome, Medina might find themselves in a trade package that will send them to the south beach.

    On Klentak – Klentak is Colangelo and Colangelo is Klentak. Both GMs will only take low to moderate type of risks particularly in the international and trade market. Klentak’s main play is next year’s FA class and hope that somebody from the farm will rise.

    1. Funny you mention Yelich and Realmuto. Just minutes ago MLBTR sited multiple reports that Miami is actively listening to offers for both. There’s something there for Klentak to get creative.

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