2018 Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30 Poll

Time to get ready for the 2018 Reader Top 30 Prospect Poll.  I will start polling in a week or so, and plan on posting a poll each weekday.  We will continue to follow baseball’s standards for prospect lists which states –

“To be eligible for a list, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.”

“The rankings follow the guidelines laid out by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement in terms of who falls under the international pool money rules: Players who are at least 23 years old and played in leagues deemed to be professional (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Cuba) are not eligible.”

Several players exceeded their Rookie status during the 2017 season – Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, Hoby Milner, and Ricardo Pinto.

A few more are no longer with the organization – Cameron Perkins (SEA), Brock Stassi (MIN), Jesen Therrien (LAD), and Ty Kelly (FA).

The first ballot will be comprised of first 20 players from MLB’s Top 30 Prospect list.

There are about 251 players within the organization who still have rookie status.  The first ballot is listed below (in alphabetical order) –

  • Jorge Alfaro,
  • Daniel Brito,
  • Dylan Cozens,
  • J.P. Crawford,
  • Enyel De Los Santos,
  • Elniery Garcia,
  • Jose Gomez,
  • Kevin Gowdy,
  • Adam Haseley,
  • Franklyn Kilome,
  • Scott Kingery,
  • Adonis Medina,
  • Mickey Moniak,
  • Jhailyn Ortiz,
  • Roman Quinn,
  • Cornelius Randolph,
  • JoJo Romero,
  • Sixto Sanchez,
  • Cole Stobbe,
  • Ranger Suarez.

I will add names, as necessary and as randomly as I did last season.  I’ll get the remaining players in the MLB’s top 30 on the ballot as quickly as possible.  In the past, I have added more prospects based on any remaining from the remainder of our previous Reader Top 30, any remaining eligible prospects on the 40-Man Roster, guys coming off good seasons, and guys I liked.  This year that would have looked like this –

Remainder of MLB’s Top 30 – note that De Los Santos pushed Hammer off the 30, but I still included him here – Spencer Howard, Tomas Eshelman, McKenzie Mills, Drew Anderson, Luis Garcia, Eliezer Alvarez, Victor Arano, Edgar Garcia, Seranthony Dominguez, Francisco Morales, and J.D. Hammer.

Remainder of Reader Top 30/40 – Harold Arauz, Mark Appel, Alberto Tirado, Nick Fanti, Andrew Pullin, Jesse Valentin, Jose Pujols, Bailey Falter, Tyler Viza, Cole Irvin, Arquimedes Gamboa, and Deivi Grullon.

For reference, here’s last year’s Reader Top 30 plus ten.

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Mickey Moniak
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Nick Williams – no longer eligible
  6. Franklyn Kilome
  7. Sixto Sanchez
  8. Rhys Hoskins – no longer eligible
  9. Dylan Cozens
  10. “C” Randolph
  11. Scott Kingery
  12. Kevin Gowdy
  13. Harold Arauz
  14. Andrew Knapp – no longer eligible
  15. Jhailyn Ortiz
  16. Adonis Medina
  17. Mark Appel
  18. Nick Pivetta – no longer eligible
  19. Ben Lively – no longer eligible
  20. Alberto Tirado
  21. Elniery Garcia
  22. Nick Fanti
  23. Cole Stobbe
  24. Drew Anderson
  25. Andrew Pullin
  26. Carlos Tocci – no longer with the organization
  27. Ricardo Pinto – no longer eligible
  28. Jordan Kurokawa – no longer with the organization
  29. Thomas Eshelman
  30. Jesse Valentin
  31. Jose Pujols
  32. Bailey Falter
  33. Victor Arano
  34. Daniel Brito
  35. Tyler Viza
  36. Seranthony Dominguez
  37. JoJo Romero
  38. Cole Irvin
  39. Arquimedes Gamboa
  40. Deivi Grullon

Prospects on the 40-Man Roster – Yacksel Rios and Jose Taveras.

A Bunch of Guys Who had Nice Summers, Winters, or Maybe I Just Like Them – Joey DeNato, Elniery Garcia, Enyel De Los Santos, Jacob Waguespack, Mitch Walding, Austin Davis, Brandon Leibrandt, Drew Stankiewicz, Damek Tomscha, Zachary Coppola, Cord Sandberg, Jiandido Tromp, Trevor Bettencourt, Luke Leftwich, Seth McGarry, Edgar Cabral, Darick Hall, Mark Laird, Ismael Cabrera, Will Hibbs, Mauricio Llovera, Raul Rivas, Jesus Alastre, Connor Seabold, Randy Alcantara, Connor Brogdon, Kyle Young, Julian Garcia, Luis Ramirez, Alejandro Requena, Greg Pickett, Josh Stephen, Ben Brown, Anton Kuznetsov, Ethan Lindow, Oscar Marcelino, Denny Martinez, Jakob Hernandez, Jhordany Mezquita, Manuel Silva, Victor Sobil, Brayan Gonzalez, Dalton Guthrie, Jonathan Guzman, Rafael Marchan, Jake Holmes, Quincy Nieporte, Simon Muzziotti, and Ben Pelletier.

Today’s Poll

Last year, I added a poll about seven days into the process to allay any concerns that I was shaping the poll.  At the end of this article, you will find a rather long poll that includes all the guys above who aren’t on MLB’s top 30.  You will be able to select as many players as you want to be added to the poll as we proceed through the process.

Features of this poll include –

  1. The order of names has been randomized.
  2. The Other answers option has been activated so you can add a player not listed.
  3. You can choose multiple prospects.
  4. There is no limit to the number of prospects you can select.
  5. Results are hidden.  I’ll publicize them later.
  6. Repeat voting is blocked.  So make all your selections the first time you take the poll.
  7. The poll will be open for seven days.

The guys who get the highest number of votes will be the first guys added to the poll.

If you submit a player in Other who is listed in the poll, that vote will NOT be counted.

The Other Top 30

I am always interested in how the drawn out polling process compares to a one time submission.  I request that each participant submit her/his own Top 30 to prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject – My Prospect List.  I am curious how the day-by-day voting and discussion affects the outcome when compared to a one-time submission early in the process along the lines of an MVP ballot or a football top 25 ballot.

Corresponding With the Pollster

Since we’re only doing a top 30, a lot of the guys listed above might not make it to a ballot. If you have a favorite that you want considered for the ballot or want to ensure that one of the guys listed above makes it to a ballot, e-mail me at prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject – Add Prospect.  You can also include the request in the comments section.  I am NOT going to use the Other option in the poll this year. If you want to make your silly suggestions, you can do it in the Comments section so that everyone can see how funny you think you are.  Last year I had to sift through votes for former Phillies prospects as well as some made up names.

More Players

I have seen most of the players in the organization.  Those who are drafted and assigned to Williamsport either spend a few days at the Complex before their assignment or return for Instructs.  I probably have a bias for the guys I watch in XST, the GCL and FSL.  So, if it looks like I’m missing someone you think should be considered, send me those names.

Here are the rest of the players eligible for consideration.

Lehigh Valley – Logan Moore and Malquin Canelo.

Reading – Tommy Bergjans, Ranfi Casimiro, Garrett Cleavinger, Alexis Rivero, Mario Sanchez, Jeff Singer, Shane Watson, Tom Windle, Derek Campbell, Zach Green, and Kyle Martin.

Clearwater – Aaron Brown, Tyler Gilbert, Blake Quinn, Austin Bossart, Jose Antequera, Grenny Cumana, Jan Hernandez, Emmanuel Marrero, and Carlos Duran.

Lakewood – Gustavo Armas, Casey Brown, Luis Carrasco, Grant Dyer, Alex Garcia, Tyler Hallead, Jonathan Hennigan, Jake Kelzer, Felix Paulino, Addison Russ, Colby Fitch, Gregori Rivero, Luke Williams, Austin Listi, David Martinelli, and Henri Lartigue.

Williamsport – Andrew Brown, Kyle Dohy, Damon Jones, Orestes Melendez, Jhon Nunez, David Parkinson, Ramon Rosso, Will Stewart, Zach Warren, Rodolfo Duran, Nerluis Martinez, Jesus Azuaje, Nick Maton, Brian Mims, Jake Scheiner, Yahir Gurrola, Malvin Matos, and Luis Encarnacion.

Gulf Coast League – Rafael Carvajal, Bailey Cummings, Jose Jimenez, Robinson Martinez, Sutter McLoughlin, Justin Miller, Sandro Rosario, Sati Santa Cruz, Kipp Moore, Lenin Rodriguez, Keudy Bocio, Gunnar Buhner, Jesus Henriquez, Edwin Rodriguez, D.J. Stewart, Jack Zoellner, Kevin Markham, and Danny Mayer.

Dominican – Bryan Alcala, Leonel Aponte, Ruben Aponte, Alexis Araujo, Osvaldo Arauz, Alfredo Benitez, Jonas De La Cruz, Carlos Francisco, Alexis Herrera, Derwuin Marchan, Anderson Nunez, Melvin Nunez, Luis Pacheco, Anderson Parra, Jose Perez, Aldemar Rivas, Carlos Salazar, Yeison Sanchez, Ramiro Soto, Jean Carlos Valdez, Freddy Barreto, Juan Mendez, Carlos Oropeza, Victor Alfonso, Alexito Feliz, Juan Herrera, Leandro Medina, Yeremy Nunez, Nicolas Torres, Jose Tortolero, Julio Francisco, Raymond Mora, Yerwin Trejo, Rusbel Vasquez, Ronaldo Gonzalez, Abdallah Aris, Eudiver Avendano, Jeison Blanco, Antonio Canizales, Jose Conopoima, Ludovico Coveri, Gustavo Ferrer, Erick Heredia, Wilberson Liendo, Alejandro Made, Gregorix Mateo, Yefferson Mercedes, Moises Nolasco, Jose Palacio, Jorbin Romero, Dalvin Rosario, Juan Santos, Victor Santos, Luis Suarez, Junior Tejada, Gabriel Yanez, Juan Aparicio, Ronald Torrealba, Maximo De La Rosa, Edgar Made, Luiggi Mujica, Luis Rojas, Enny Rondon, Christian Valerio, Wilbert Garcia, Dixon Gutierrez, Jevi Hernandez, Luis Matos, Juan Carlos Smith, and Jose Rivera.

Unassigned – Wilman Silva, Enmanuel Omana, Luiggi Pineda, Luis Garcia, Carlos De La Rosa, Carlos Bettencourt, Wilerik Diaz, Reiwal Gonzalez, Alexander Kline, Orangel Lopez, Alfonzo Puello, Victor Vargas, and Scott Harris.

And finally, the poll (it’s long, containing 63 names)-

46 thoughts on “2018 Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30 Poll

  1. Alfaro has 131 PAs and 123 ABs in the big leagues. You can’t get any closer to saying he’s a Major Leaguer and no longer eligible for Minor League ranking. I guess the rules are the rules. If he had 129 ABs, he’d still be eligible but maybe the 130 AB rule is arbitrary and 131 PAs would make him ineligible for our minor league top 30. I guess I’l create a list with him and a list without him and arbitrarily decide whether to send the list with or without.

    1. The irony here is thick. We all “know” that Alfaro is going north with the Phillies due to his lack of options. And that he will likely drop off MLB’s top 30 by the end of his second or third start. Maybe we should go past 30 (hangs head at the thought of the extra work) so we can move people up when a prospect graduates?

      1. As it stands now, De Los Santos is really the #6 prospect once you take off Kingey,Crawford, and Alfaro. Unless you put the braves C above him.

        I know the readers list can vary greatly so let’s see how it unfolds. This year is tough because … You’ll make your list and some of Them will be gone for a young pitcher IMO. Better go to top 40 lol

        1. Why would you take Kingery off the list? He hasn’t played in the majors. It doesn’t matter if he loses eligibility before 2018 ends. This is the top 30 going into the 2018 list. We’ll vote on the going into 2019 top 30 list at this time next year. Crawford and Alfaro also belong, on that basis, although it is a closer call.

      2. To me the top-30 is the top 30. It’s always good to look back and see how many from the top-30 pole list graduate, fall, leave the organization, etc.

        Alfaro is an unique case but fits the definition for now.

  2. The recent J2 signees are always been the wildcard in my rankings because it is hard to rank any prospect who hasn’t played any pro baseball yet. Although Jhailyn Ortiz and Francisco Morales proved the last 2 years that I can buy into the hype.

    Simon Muzziotti and the recent signee Abrahan Gutierrez played at least a season before the Phils scooped them, so it’s easy to finad a basis for their rankings. For the 16-yo Luis Garcia — I still don’t know whether to consider him in my rankings or not.

  3. I’m curious to know how far both Cozens and Stobbe fell in the rankings. I think both should be an easy out in the Top 30. Maybe both are in the back end of the Top 40 (around 36-40).

    The new guy Enyel delos Santos has a shot to be in the Top 10. While JoJo will be the top fast riser followed by Ranger (easy Top 15) and possibly Taveras (Top 21-25)..

    1. I’m not exactly bullish on Cozens as a big-league hitter, but I doubt there are 30 prospects more valuable than a 23-year-old corner outfielder who has hit 67 home runs across AA/AAA in the past two seasons.

      1. @Mike – this will all depends on how you value prospects. Guys like me give more weight on physical projections left, thus, younger prospects with loud tools score high in my rankings. I’ve seen BA and MattWinks do the same approach (PROSPECT = PROJECTION).

        That being said, the Phillies farm is loaded with toolsy prospects in the lower minors that will pass Cozens easily in a prospect ranking — Gamboa, Brito, Morales. Jon Guzman, Brayan Gonzalez, Luis Garcia, Muzziotti, Mezquita to name some of them. Then a group of high picks in the last 3 years of Rule IV draft will probably rank higher than Cozens too. So toolsy prospects, the Rule IV high picks and some prospects obtain from trades can easily make a Top 30 group and push Cozens further down the rankings.

        There is no question about Cozens power potential. But the big question mark is his ability to hit in the MLB level. If Cozens can’t hit then his power value goes down the drain.

        1. I place a lot of value on upside in my prospect rankings, but performing in the high minors has to account for something. He’s not a college guy going up against kids four or five years younger. And I don’t think we’re talking about “potential power” in Cozens case. The power is there, and it is legitimate. The question is whether it would be worth watching him hit .200 and strike out in 40 percent of his ABs while he’s hitting home runs in the big leagues.

          1. We’ve seen Cozens for 5 years now and the potential and risks are pretty much the same since Day 1.

            I’ve been generous to Cozens in rankings including the recent ranking that I just currently completed. I normally just put the prospects names on top of the other and do the numbering after I’m done. It surprised me to see that both Stobbe and Cozens are booted out of the Top 30. I spent time to re-evaluate the back half of the Top 30 and it is not that hard to see that there are a lot of prospects who have better prospect profile than Cozens. I know MLB gives weight to proximity, so it will not surprise me to see made the Top 20 in MLB rankings. But for BA and PMT. I’m almost certain that Cozens will not make the Top 30.

          2. That is the issue with the Rangers and Gallo. Though Gallo is able tio take a walk, whereas Cozens does not seem to want to do that. However, in 2015 he was instructed to modify his approach and he made the effort and did it when he was at CLW. So perhaps another mandate was given to him for 2018 in LHV.

    2. Cozens is still in my top 20. It’s very hard to find that kind of power. I haven’t given up on him yet. If he finds a shorter swing and more selectivity, I still think there’s a player there. He sees all of his former teammates in the majors, that has to be very motivating.

      1. @Murray – I started to do my Top 50 and it is hard to include Cozens in the Top 25, maybe he can be Top 30 but that’s being generous to his power potential. I have Hall and Cozens not making the Top 30. I find Hall to be the easier prospect to rank higher, but the depth across all level pushed both Hall and Cozens down in the rankings. The power tool is huge, but the question marks (i.e. ability to hit in higher levels) are much bigger.

      2. Cozens’ walk rates are not bad an offer some hope for the future. That said, red flags are everywhere and we were always concerned about platoon splits with him. But it wasn’t only that. Last year he didn’t hit righties well either. Also, after rebounding from a terrible April with a great May, he went right back in the tank, ending the year poorly.

        But, he is athletic, the power is real and he’s still relatively young. Odds are against him being anything more than a major league platoon bat (if that), but if he can get his bat on the ball and avoid too many bad ABs the potential is still there.

        1. Cozens apparently seems to be a version of a poor man’s Joey Gallo.
          Gallo though carries a way better OBP indicating he takes more balls and less swings outside the zone compared to Cozens.
          Though I have had Cozens comped to fromer Indian Russell Branyan from days gone by.

      3. Murray,

        I think you’re right about motivation.

        I’ve not been as big a Cozens booster as most given his K and BB rates. However, this year I might find myself on the opposite side and rate him higher than most given 1) his evident power and athleticism and 2) the motivation that you mention.

        Now, if he just can’t see pitches, that’s another thing. But my guess is that he can and that he will be highly motivated to get the heck on base.

  4. The Phillies consider both Alfaro and Crawford as major league players so they will not be on my list. Kingery will because they will probably start him at LHV. The system is deep. This year should be interesting. I like the number 30.

  5. Who do you rate higher: Cozens or Quinn? One can hit a wiffle ball out of any Major League park but can rack up Ks like grains of sand. The other can’t stay healthy. His most ABs in a season is 492 which he had in 2014 between CLW and the Arizona Fall Ball. Quinn keeps popping up in our lists but he’s a half time player. Is that better than a whiff champion who can hit the ball out of anywhere? Tough call. I always rate Cozens higher but maybe neither deserves to be in the top 30.

    1. bellman,

      Really interesting question.

      I was a big Roman Quinn fan, but not anymore, even though I’m willing to be won back if he can play healthy.

      Maybe what Cozens and Quinn show is how hard it is to succeed to the MLB level and how few get there for the different reasons each of them illustrate.

    2. Quinn, easily. Quinn is a legit prospect who just needs to stay healthy. He is injury prone but has also just been unlucky a couple times. Cozens, conversely, has huge swing and miss issues, particularly against lefties. It’s no contest, IMO.

      1. Cozens obviously needs to improve over last season, but he can succeed despite big swing and miss issues. Ryan Howard certainly did. Cozens swing and miss problem is more severe, but then he doesn’t have to match Howard’s first 5 MLB seasons to have significant value. I think Quinn also has value. Actually, he is an excellent test of the Phillies new and approved approach to conditioning and health. One has to suspect that an improved stretching/exercise/general warmup program (especially in the sort of cold weather that accompanies the start of the Reading and Allentown seasons) would have helped him in years past and may this season. Do the young players properly handle the transition from ST in balmy FL to night games in eastern PA?

  6. off topic here and don’t mean to offend anyone, regarding another site, but is anyone having trouble getting on to Philliephans.com. my attempt always states that his connection is not private and to stay away. Maybe I have been banned. Don’t know why. Thanks.
    gm

    1. GM, there are issues with the security certificate. You can get in using Firefox and clicking on ‘Advanced’ in the Settings. From there, you can bypass the security warning / barrier. I wasn’t able to get in using Chrome. Regards, Jeff05

    2. It’s an expired certificate problem, as has occurred in the past and it hopefully will be fixed soon. You haven’t been banned. On my browser, I’ve been able to just ignore the warning and power through to the site.

  7. Another report that the Dodgers may be willing to include a prospect(s) in a deal to dump Matt Kemp’s salary

    I mentioned this weekend I would eat Kemp’s 38.5 million (over 2 years) if LA included Mitchell White. IMO, White is going to be a stud pitcher. He’ll probably reach MLB sometime in 2018.

      1. I’m assuming your talking about the ballot above? As I read it, the ballot above is for people to choose who they think should be added to the ballot when doing the top 30. Crawford isn’t there. Alfaro isn’t there. Cozens isn’t even there. If they were is our top 30 last time, they aren’t in the list above. Pick as many for the ballot above you think are ready to make the top 30. They’ll be added to the list based on how many votes they get in the ballot above.

  8. Update: The polling this year isn’t as heavy as it was last year.

    If it wasn’t clear, I am polling for the prospects to be added AFTER the MLB top 31 have been included as selections.

    I check a couple times each day. The results have been consistent –

    1-4: Young, Irvin, Hall, and Fanti
    5-7: Mezquita, Pullin, and Muzziotti
    8-11: Gamboa, Taveras, Elniery Garcia, and Pelletier
    12-13: Falter and Valentin
    14-15: Tromp and Gonzalez

    Arauz and Grullon are on the bubble. Greg Pickett has made a big jump in the last 24 hours. Note that there is no specific number of prospects to be added, but rather all players who exceed a certain percentage of the vote.

    The new guy, Enyel De Los Santos, was incorrectly included in this poll. He will be included in the initial reader poll since he is in MLB’s top 20.

  9. I thought Elniery Garcia was let go. Maybe I dreamt that. For some reason, I’m feeling, the big kid, Waguenspack, to make a big jump this year. just a feeling.
    gm

      1. Has anyone else noticed that Tommy Hunter is not listed as a transaction, or that he still does not appear on the 40 man roster, on the Phillies website?

        1. All the teams at all levels are notoriously slow at listing transactions. Almost like it’s only a part-time, minimum wage job for whoever does the update.

  10. I can do a top 30 in just pitchers alone. There are a few spots where its crowded as who is better than who. Also it is harder to judge a GCL pitcher vs an A or AA pitcher as the innings are not there and smaller sample sizes can be misleading. But pitching wise the system is stacked especially in Clearwater and Lakewood ranks. Elniery Garcia is on MLB top 30 but I have him at 30 in just pitchers while Gowdy I have off the list until he actually pitches following TJ surgery. De Los Santos addition could be a precursor for a trade involving pitching prospects as I have him closely ranked with several other pitchers near top of list. This is an interesting activity to try to rank them.

      1. I was only doing that to figure out the depth at the pitching position and ended up with 30 names to consider to rank. But I do like this idea of separating pitching from position players

  11. Happy Holidays everyone!
    I really enjoy reading Jim’s write-ups and the dialogue that follows. You all made my 2017 a little easier! Thanks.

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