333 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of December 17th”

1. I thought I read someplace that P Florimon was still in the Phillies org but the “links” do not indicate him resigning? Did I miss him on one of the rosters?

   1. He was signed to a minor league deal with a camp invite. If healthy, he’ll have a chance to make the club. If Cesar is traded, Florimon will have a great chance to replace him, at least until June 1.

      1. Correct. He became a free agent on November 6, 2017 (when he selected free agency after being outrighted off the 40-man roster) and re-signed with the Phillies on November 15, 2017.

         – Florimon’s MLB page is current only up to the November 6th transaction.
         – His MiLB page has neither transaction (in fact, it lists NO past transactions) and still lists Pedro as a free agent.
         – Baseball Reference is up to date with both recent transactions.

2. Not very interesting but, after losing Stassi and Perkins, will the Phils push Martin up to LHV or sign a 4A veteran to play 1B. The LHV lineup looks to have an OF of Pullin, Tromp, and Cozens (I don’t expect Tocci back) with an IF including Walding and Kingery (and later Valentin) and maybe two 4A guys at SS and 1B. With JP in the majors, I think they’ll bring in a good 4A glove to play at LHV and to join JP in spring training. It could just be Florimon if Cesar isn’t traded (I think Valentin, with a 40 spot, makes the 25). Moore is the back up catcher and the starter could be Knapp, especially if they bring in a veteran back up. How funny would it be if they traded Cesar and brought Utley and Chooch back to be on the bench.

   1. Where do you see Roman Quinn? On the bench in Philadelphia? In the mix in LHV? In another organization? On the DL?

      1. In the post-op recovery room. Only half kidding.

         Nobody really knows how good Quinn is or could be. But I think he’s worth more on the team than he is in a trade, so he’s a wild card player. You certainly can’t rely on him, however, that’s for sure.

      2. Yes with the 40 issues he’ll definitely be on the 25, IF HEALTHY!

      3. Quinn has to be the fifth OF at this point, right? Could play all three positions in a pinch, switch-hitter, pinch-runner. As has been stated previously, it’s all about health with him. He has little to gain from another year of AA/AAA pitching.

         1. My wild prediction for 2018 … Roman Quinn gets at least 80 starts in the Phillies OF.

            1. YEAH and I will hit the power ball.

            2. I think that it’s very possible that he is the Phillies 5th OF and that he appears in 100 games for them. I doubt he will actually start 80, unless Odubel involved in a trade for pitching. I look for improvements in the Phillies conditioning program this season, which may help Quinn. I also hope they teach him how to slide.

   2. I do expect Tocci back. Cant see Texas giving him a full yr roster slot.

3. Phillies deal with Santana proves to be on target with MLBPA:
   https://nypost.com/2017/12/18/carlos-santana-deal-proves-mlb-players-union-made-right-call/

4. Now that Realmuto wants out of Miami also, how would people feel about an offer of Alfaro and a pitching prospect like Medina for him? His defensive ratings were very high this year, plus the good bat, so he’s a good player.

   1. I’d love Realmuto but Medina is too much. I’d pick a pitcher farther down the organizational chart. I’d rate Medina after Sanchez and before Kilome.

      1. Medina too muich?
         Realmuto has been close to a 9WAR player over the last three years and only two years older than Alfaro.
         I would think Hill and Jeter will want more than Medina….unless they are fearful of Realmuto’s abrittration cost, and who knows what monetary contraints they are now under, however Realmuto is under team controlled for the next three seasons..

         1. Agree with you, Romus. Miami can do a lot better than Alfaro and Medina for Realmuto. At this point, Jeter should be all in on a full blown rebuild. Realmuto, Yelich, and Straily should be traded now or this summer. Yelich and Realmuto should bring back excellent returns, Straily should deliver a good return.

            1. How about Herrera, Altherr,
               Alfaro, Medina, Kilome, Lively for Yelich, Realmuto and Straily?

               1. I think it’s too much upon reflection but the return would be significant for us.

               2. Does it have to be Ben Lively…I like the kid….he definitely has defined guns for a pitcher…or for that matter a baseball player in general.

               3. @Murray – i might be too light if Yelich is included. To get Yelich, JT and Straily, it may need to be done in 2-3 separate transactions so it not be complicated and make Klentak’s head explode. Currently, MIA has a thin OF and have some bad contracts to dump — that will be Klentak’s window of opportunity to exploit.

                  With the acquisition of Santana and moving of Hoskins to LF, since might complicate the OF situation since I’m not sure if both Doobie or Yelich can play RF with average defense.

                  Assuming that either Doobie or Yelich can play RF, my proposal to Jeter will be:

                  TRADE #1 – Alfaro, Taveras and Lenin Rodriguez for Reamulto and Prado’s contract.

                  TRADE #2 – Nick Williams, Kilome, Mills (or delos Santos) and Randolph (or Moniak) for Yelich and Chen’s contract.

               4. I suggested Lively because Marlins will need a replacement in the rotation immediately for Straily plus wantva future prospect pitcher with high upside.

               5. I don’t understand why everyone is in such a rush to trade all of our minor league pitching depth. Some off it certainly but not Medina AND Kilome.

                  The FO has already indicated that they are not willing to give monster contracts to pitcher so we need Sanchez to develop into a TOR and at least one of Medina or Kilome to be at least a MOR.

               6. Murray … If I was Klentak, I would take a pass on Straily. The Phillies have plenty of Straily’s. I would also look to lessen the prospect cost by offering to take back Wei-Yin Chen (3 yrs/60 million).
                  Also, at this point, I might hold off on any offers for position players. I’d be planning to save my best trade chips for a young, controllable starter. I’ve put together my own list/rankings of arms I’d love to see in Phillies pinstripes. Some of these guys may be more available than others. Some may be had now. Some may more likely to be had this summer. Some may come at too high a cost, some may be more affordable (in terms of prospects):
                  1. Marcus Stroman (27 YO in May)… 3 arb years
                  2. Blake Snell (25 YO) … 5 yrs team control, 3 yrs of arb
                  3. Aaron Sanchez (25 YO) … 3 arb years
                  4. Michael Fulmer (25 YO next season)… 5 yrs team control, 4 yrs of arb
                  5. Chris Archer (29 YO) … under contract 4 yrs/34 million
                  6. Danny Duffy (29 YO this week) … under contract 4 yrs/60 million
                  7. Daniel Norris (25 YO in April) … 4 yrs team control, 3 yrs arb
                  8. Gerrit Cole (27 YO) … 2 arb years
                  9. Danny Salazar (28 next month) … 3 arb years
                  10. Carlos Rodon (25 YO) … 4 arb yrs
                  Stroman, Snell, and Sanchez would be in my first tier. Sanchez would probably be my #1 target/want, but falls a bit because of injury history. Snell makes my top 3 because he’s LH, has 5 years of control, and I love his stuff. Daniel Norris is a dark horse, a great “buy low” target. He’s also been stung by a series of injuries (cancer, bad back, but no serious arm problem). IMO, Norris is a great bounce back candidate, and he’s still very young.

               7. Craziness, the majority of trade scenarios has Herrera In them. I get it he makes mental errors that has us throwing things at the tv but when he’s on and focused he’s 1 of the better CF in the job. Good defence, good arm, good speed, good eye, good pop, dude is a player and still young. His value is actually very HIGH and there’s almost no way they should trade him.

               8. Definitely agree Odubel is terribly under-rated around here.

               9. @Murray – i agree with Hinkie about Straily, that’s why I left him off my 2 trade proposals. As much as I like to acquire Yelich, Hoskins move to LF took a spot for the young OFs and Yelich might be a LF/CF guy.

                  @Aron – the SP’s depth (AA and below) of top arms includes Sixto, Kilome, Medina, delos Santos, JoJo, Morales, Gowdy. Ranger, Howard to name a few. Any trade involving a good MLB player in return will need to tap into this pool so getting 2 prospects (i.e. Medina, Kilome) is not necessarily draining the pool.

               10. Hinkie…you might to take Cole off that list….looks like Yankees will make a real run for him…Clint Frazier is at the heart of their package to the Pirates..

               11. @berjeraj – being included in a trade doesn’t necessary mean that the player is being underappreciated. I myself normally includes Cesar and Doobie in most of the trade scenarios i have.

                   Outside of Nola, Doobie has the most trade value in the 40-man followed by JPC and Hoskins. Cesar has some value, but 2B with no loud tools is not that appealing.

                   What is crazy is trading Doobie for scrubs. But if the Phils want to acquire a really good player, they need to sacrifice either cash, really good young and controllable MLB player (i.e. Nola, Doobie, JPC, Hoskins) or high end prospects (i.e. Sixto, Kingery, Haseley,

                   So you have to look at both sides of the equation before you make any conclusion that people just want to dump Doobie.

               12. @kurdt I get that. BUT, why trade a good player that is very hard to replace? Who’s going to play CF? There’s no one in the Org that can perform close to him. Yelich isn’t a huge upgrade if any to him minus the mental misques. There isn’t many trade scenarios that make sense to include Doobie

         2. Medina in addition to Alfaro is too much, if I wasn’t clear. Medina has a chance to be a #2/#3 and is the second best pitcher in the minors. Let’s hope someone from Mia believes in Alfaro’s upside and smaller contract.

   2. REALMUTO had 240 total bases last year. He walked 100 times which I really like, but I’d be inclined to keep Alfaro, just feel like he has a lot of upside. If the Marlins will part with both him
      And yelich, then id put Alfaro in the deal. Not sure if that makes sense though.

      1. If you believe a player’s minor league metrics paint somewhat of a picture of future projections…which is what analytics are all about in some circles…Realmuto had a 16% K rate in his minor league career…majors it is 18%.
         Alf’s in 1000 more PAs in the minors has a K rate of 27%.
         I am inclined to bet more on Realmuto over Alf in the long run.

         1. But it’s Alfaro’s horrible walk rates that are the killer. He looks to me like a great physical talent that may never gain traction.

            1. Amen.
               He has been that way for the last 5 years…..a leper will eventually show their spots, even though the last two months in Philly saw a different Alfaro than previous years, but it was a SSS.
               Personally Knapp would work for me…switch -hitter who does have an ideal hitting approach that is conducive to above average OBP metrics….and if hitting 7th or 8th in the line-up, he may be very suited in that role.

               1. Knapp still has work to do on his defense, but I’m a fan and I’ve always believed in the bat. They need to give him a shot. I view this year as a catcher by committee approach. You want to play more? Fine, then produce. Otherwise, you’re traded or on the bench.

               2. I do agree that Knapp offensively probably is a safer future projection than Alfaro because his plate discipline looks quite solid though behind the plate he has a lot of work to do. While it was great to see Alfaro hit in the mlb last year and for some power he as well needs a lot of refinement on defense.

                  I’d definitely love to go for Realmuto and Yelich. Certainly would take back salary to compensate though without that your looking at quite a package.

                  Alfaro, Kilome, Williams, MM, Lively or whatever EOR starter, to go along with probably some A or lower prospects that have nice upsides. Now if Herrera and or Hernandez is involved (if Castro gets moved) that lessens the prospect push though probably includes Alfaro, Williams/Kilome n some stuff.

      2. I’d trade 2 Alfaros for Realmuto

   3. Realmuto isn’t going anywhere. He’s one of the remaining decent players in Miami and is still cost controlled. He might not be happy but he’s not going anywhere without significant return..

5. I like Realmuto for Alfaro +

6. From the twitter:
   Told by Canadian sources, Phillippe Aumont deal with #Tigers is a minor league deal. Prior to transition to Canadian League for 2017, Aumont made 10 relief appearances in 2016 with Triple-A Charlotte (12.27 ERA with 11 BB over 11 IP).

   Sounds familiar

7. How do you think Cozens handles the news of his bash brother manning LF full time? If he turns the corner … If could get ugly at the OF log jam. What do you guys think? What are his chances of pushing for the RF spot?

   1. i have big concerns with Cozens, but before I write him off, I really, really, really like to see him get at bats in MLB (at least 150) and play RF. If Cozens steps up the way Judge did (despite of the red flags) this past season for the Yanks, balls will be flying in CBP with Hoskins, Santana, Cozens, Alterr, Nick and Alfaro in the batting order.

      1. Cozens is somewhat of a good wild card to have for a team with so much depth.

         It would be good to get Williams & Altherr 400 ABs each. If Cozens cuts down his K rate & improves split stats while keeping power, he will be forcing himself into the lineup.

         But we aren’t there yet.

         1. Cozens did just that in 2015 at CLW in approx 400 PAs….20%K rate and 7%BB rate, with a slash of 282/.335/.411…..and there in lies the issue…an OPS of only .746 and an ISO of only .129….lowest of his career.
            Whereas as bad as 2017 was…his ISO was still a respectable .208
            So he made contact but was not driving the ball when he adjusted his approach in 2015.
            I think the Phillies want him to do both….make more contact and still power the ball.

         2. I have an idea. How about we don’t carry 13 pitchers and do carry five outfielders?

            The evolution of pitching being a part-time job has reached the point of counter productivity, perhaps. Wonder if there’s a sabermetric to measure the impact of having a fifth and sixth — by definition worse than one through four and cutting down the Number One pitcher’s percentage of games pitched — pitchers in rotations. And what’s the percentage of at least one relief pitcher having an off night when the manager runs out multiple pitchers, which is almost always in our world of 3.5-plus-hour games. There must be some probability analysis that can be done.

            Maybe the ultimate solution is to have 25-man pitching staffs.

8. It appears the Phils have done a good job accumulating pitching. Lots of talk about trading for a starting pitcher I think they might be better off useing this year to evaluate what they already have.

   Nola seems a lock and they have Eickhoff, Verlasquez, Eflin, Lively, Leiter, Pivetta, and Thompson battling for the other spots. They also have E Garcia, Eshelman, Anderson, and De los Santos waiting in the wings. Any predictions what the rotations might look like for the phillies and Iron Pigs if they stick with what they have?

   1. Klentak still need some work to do the unclog the SP situation especially if he intends to sign a FA SP. Currently, there are 13 SPs in the 40-man and another 7 (excludes Appel) that are projected to start in LHV and REA so 20 starters for 15 starting rotation spots – so 5 will be traded or moved to the pen. Seranthony, Leiter and Wags can pitch from the pen and there will be around 2 who will be in the bubble.

      Based on the current 40-man roster, my expected rotations will be:

      PHI – Nola, Eickhoff, Vinny, Pivetta, Lively
      LHV – Eflin, Anderson, Eshelman, Irvin, Taveras
      REA – Kilome, delos Santos, Elniery Garcia, Ranger Suarez, Viza

      Move to the Pen – Seranthony, Leiter, Wags

      Bubble – Thompson,Leibrandt

      Sixto and JoJo will probably start in CLW but expect them to get promoted to REA after the Rule IV draft.

      1. Eshelman will be in the rotation and he will give them one “quality” start after another (a lot of 6-7 inning 3 run outings – and I’m not down on that). He won’t be fancy or overpowering, but on a team that scores a lot of runs he could be very effective.

         1. I could see that. On a playoff contender he’s a nice 4/5 option if u have a strong lineup and 1-3 in the rotation.

            1. I think he could end up being better than that over time. Righties who throw 91 or 92 usually cannot rise above being a 4/5, but Eshelman has 80 command (he’s an outlier in terms of this ability), so if he can develop even one borderline plus pitch, his command of all pitches gives him a chance to become a 3.

               1. There are comps to Eshelman’s game….specifically RHP starters.
                  Cubs Kyle Hendricks for one….whose actually velo is 87-89.
                  Then there were Mark Buehrle and Jered Weaver, then at the end of their careers Tim Lincecum, Chris Young, Dan Haren and Justin Masterson.

                  BTW…Tim Lincecum is making a comeback…Phillies ought to look into him on a minor-league contract non-roster ST invite.

               2. Oh I know the command is elite, but unless one of those pitches is plus he’s probably not getting there (at least based on previous players with his skill set) though I don’t rule out the possibility the command makes those pitches play up even more. Still I see no problem with him being an inning eater fourth starter. This team needs that especially with the parade of guys they been throwing out there.

9. espn.com says Yelich is unhappy and Phillies among teams who’ve recently asked about him

   1. I suspect there are a lot of unhappy Marlins now with two of their big boppers now gone and rebuilding is in order.

      1. Think Starlin Casto is trilled about now? you’re right that everyone they have signed to a contract is probably looking to move..

         1. Thrilled that is, not trilled!!!

10. I love Alfaro’s upside but a Realmuto/Yelich return for a boat load with the exceptions of Crawford, Kingery, and Sixto is quite compelling.

    1. Alfaro, Williams, Velasquez, Kilome, Eshelman, and either Moniak or Haseley
       FOR
       Realmuto, Yelich, Prado and Chen.

       1. Pass.

11. I am not trying to rain on any discussion about possible trades with the Marlins – but quite frankly, Jeter & Company are way in over their collective heads on managing this mess of a franchise. Despite those players who folks think should be traded and to whom, I would submit that if there is one more of these franchise ending trades (like the 2 that have taken place so far) the commissioner has an obligation to step in and cause Jeter and the other “baseball” officials to cease and desist. They are systematically destroying any and all credibility that the Miami fans might have had – as if that was even possible – given the prior owner. But this state of affairs – is becoming the vultures circling the carrion. Now, the few quality players left are asking to opt out ? That, to me, says it all. Moreover, MLB has a duty to the other franchises, Miami, and remaining players to not let this team devolve into a double A team. Yes, I would be in favor of the Phillies sending a bag of balls and bats for Yellich, but that all kind of seems “Yankee like” to me….let’s not create another Kansas City Athletics farm team ala 1955-1967 for the big teams to pick apart.

    1. As Scott Boras says….the Marlin organization ‘went from a jewelry store to a pawn shop’.

    2. Since I attend an occasional Phillies game in Miami, I’m on the Marlins email list. Just got one promoting ticket packages for the 2018 season. All I could think of is who in Miami is motivated to buy a package of tickets for this tear-down?

       As Donald Trump would say: Sad

       1. Cheer up! Their incompetence is to our advantage. It’s great having a doormat in the division. Think about the Patriots. Don’t you think their greatness was enhanced by their ability to rack up win after win against crappy teams in their division? The cards are starting to fall our way a little. I’m happy about it.

    3. its not like this is the first time the marlins franchise has done this. you cant tell a new owner hes obligated to keep a player with a ridiculous contract he didnt give to a player, or keep a player he has no intention of giving the money to when he’s going to be a FA in a couple years.

       1. It’s MLB’s fault for allowing the sale of the team to impotent owners. That team was a decent pitching staff away from competing.

          1. Hinkie-you are spot on here. Despite Jeter’s Madison Avenue good looks etc. he and his group never should have been permitted to buy this franchise.

             1. Unfortunately, the Marlins were believed to be hemorrhaging money, losing at least $30 million annually, and that’s what prompted Loria to sell so fast….and Jeter and his group were one of the first on board to offer, so MLB wanted to get it done….then there was the Jeter mystique and name recognition for PR purposes that made the sale to his group even more enticing for MLB…

             2. When it comes to Yelich and Realmuto wanting out now from the organization……Marlins Hill/Jeter tell them a thing or two.
                http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=493574

12. I hate to say it but Realmuto is much better than Alfaro and Yelich is better than any of our OFs today, although I think Williams and maybe even Altherr and Herrera have the upside to possibly exceed Yelich one day.

    1. If we can upgrade Alfaro and Williams to Realmuto and Yelich by taking on salary ( prado) or adding from farm system depth, I would definitely do that

13. The reality here is that Klentak is really valuing OBP and I think guys like Galvis, N Williams, Joseph, Cozens, Franco, and Alfaro will be traded if and when decent value can be obtained. Guys like Hoskins, Santana, Cesar, Altherr, Herrera, JPC, and Kingery will be valued much higher. While Alfaro and Nick Williams have potential, they were not acquired by Klentak and he won’t hesitate to move them for the right price.

    1. True, though I think Williams & Altherr can still get the higher OBP in this lineup.

       Alfaro will provide some excitement offensively, but he is also still learning to call games.

       This is absolutely a make or break year for Franco. Since there is no other viable 3B in the system, it would be prudent to hold Cesar & let Kingery take over 3B if it comes to that point.

       As for Yelich, Realmuto, & Machado, Klentak needs to strike while he can. But Yelich would have been the target before Santana was signed. It appears they like the idea of holding the farm & signing FA’s instead.

    2. Agreed on all counts.

14. Who can tell me about veteran backup catcher Eric Fryer who signed a minors deal with the Phillies today?

    1. lifetime AAAA player.

       Here are Baseball Reference’s stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fryerer01.shtml

15. Way to much Yen and Prado are useless . I mean if Jeter is dumpling salary and his players aren’t happy .

16. Kim signed to play in Korea again. $2.6 M a year for 4 years.

    1. North Korea>??

       1. I don’t know if you meant that to be funny, but it sure was.

          1. ty

17. I posted this in the wrong thread last night so I’m re-posting it here.

    Another report that the Dodgers may be willing to include a prospect(s) in a deal to dump Matt Kemp’s salary

    one possible way the dodgers might be able to offload some of the kemp $ is to package him with a prospect(s). they are nothing if not creative.

    — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 18, 2017

    I mentioned this weekend I would eat Kemp’s 38.5 million (over 2 years) if LA included Mitchell White. IMO, White is going to be a stud pitcher. He’ll probably reach MLB sometime in 2018.

    1. I would be on board with something like this. It’s the classic NBA salary relief for a draft pick deal.

    2. It’s a great theory and maybe there’s a middle ground number but $38M is way too much to eat to get a single prospect. I’m ok with taking Prado to get something on the Marlins.

       1. Then, maybe you’s be ok with the Phillies taking on 30 million of Kemp’s salary for Mitchell White since Prado is owed 28.5 million over 2 years, and the Marlins have no prospects nearly as good as White.

       2. I agree. I would rather take Ian Kennedy from KC if you could get Duffy at least you might can someone you could use as a fifth starter

          1. Agree with takin on Ian Kennedy for a Duffy, he has three years left at $49M ($16.5M-AAV).
             Phillie need a reliable LHP in their rotation.
             If they ever make it to another World Series…..11 of the past 15 WS winners had a LHP in their rotation.

    3. 38,5 million for a prospect. especially a pitcher is sick

18. Hamels and his wife just donated their 9.4 million dollar mansion to a charity that helps children with special needs and chronic illnesses………….what an incredible class act.

19. Ottawa Champions have sold the contract of Phillipe Aumont to the Detroit Tigers. It is expected that Aumont will join the Tigers triple-A affiliate in Toledo, OH.

20. Think the Phils have something to learn from the 76rs. Once you start the Process you have to stay the course. Despite their recent travails (plethora of injuries), the 76rs stayed the course and now have a core of exciting young and dynamic players. Sold 14 thousand plus season tickets. They haven’t yet reached the final objective but are drawing attention and playing well (despite some warts). The Phils subjected their fans to several years of penury while they built a stong (albeit not yet top-of-the-line) farm system that began to show results last season. Doesn’t matter if they don’t get to the wild card next season, as long as they provide the fans with exciting, dynamic playing and, above all else, effort, always the extra effort and greater expectations for 2019.
    I was disappointed with the Santana trade. I hoped to see Hoskins develop into a top flight first baseman, instead of being shunted out to left field. Don’t forget that he was a much better hitter at first (if I’m not mistaken) when not being forced to learn a new position. Odubel IMO should be untouchable. Despite his occasional brain cramps, he’s exciting, hits well, dynamic and could certainly develop into a very good CF. Williams deserves at least another year in right field to see what he really has to offer. I suspect he can also turn into an exciting, crowd attracting player and long-term occupant in right field. Altherr must, of course, prove he can stay healthy. If he does, he will be a very solid left fielder. Behind the plate, give the job to Alfaro with Knapp as his backup and let them go at it. I would not be in such a hurry to peddle CH. He is a very good second baseman who has gotten better every year. With decent coaching, he could still learn to run the bases and steal 30 a year. Too early to simply turn the job over to Kingery. Give him time or shift him to third if the most glaring problem in the lineup doesn’t get it together next season.
    The Galvis trade and the signing of the two relief pitchers were good deals. I would not have gone after Santana, subjecting Hoskins to becoming another Burrell in left. Just not fair. Now go after a good yound pitcher under long-term control (preferably left handed) and let the rest of the young kids do their thing. There is a lot of potential among the young pitchers and several could certainly blossom into 3rd and 4th starters, maybe even a 2nd.
    As for the importance of a veteran presence in the dugout, I think that is overblown. However, you could always look for this type of leader for utility roles in both the infield and outfield.
    I truly think that patience is needed and that the Phils must “Trust the Process” as the 76rs have. There are no shortcuts. They are in a position in which they can continue building the farm system while fielding an exciting and dynamc team in the pursuit of their goal of becoming a perennial contender. Thanks for listening.

    1. Concerning the signing of the two relief pitchers you referenced above:
       A little nugget from another Phillies blog site…TGP:…form one of its regular posters.
       ” Statcast tracks xwOBA (expected weighted on base average) for both hitters and pitchers. It predicts outcomes based on the exit velo/launch angle of batted balls.
       Of available FA relievers, Neshek and Hunter were #1 and #2 in lowest xwOBA last season. Of the 191 relievers to face 150 batters, Neshek ranked #2 in all of baseball, while Hunter ranked 7th. Meaning, they allowed a ton of poorly hit balls off the bat. Addison Reed ranked 111th.”

    2. The Sixers rebuild plan involves a lot of creativity, foresight and risk taking. Klentak can take all the time he wants to study the Sixers, but the fact of the matter is, Hinkie and Klentak are too different. Klentak cannot and will not make the bold moves that Hinkie did. Klentak will take the path of less resistance – a path that 90% of the GMs takes. I’m 100% sure of that.

       We are all phanatic here, but you need to be realistic about the abilities and capabilities of the players in the Phillies roster. Sixto is probably the only “premium” talent in the organization for the last 5-6 years (and note that I’m a big Nola and Kingery supporter). Thus, everybody is deemed expendable in exchange for a legitimate MLB stud. Prior to this season – Doobie and Cesar are the two best Phils for last few years. As we’ve watched them develop, it is easy to see that both Doobie and Cesar are not legitimate “studs”. Both are perfect complimentary players, but they are not studs or “untoucheable” are you call it. If Doobie and Cesar are the best players in your team, then your team is not that good. Period.

       One of the biggest mistake that RAJ era consistently made is over-estimating the abilities and capabilities of the players wearing the Red Pin Stripes. And you are making the same mistake.

       I love every player in this organization as most of us do. But not all the best things happen to everyone. Some of these players will eventually stall, get hurt and not perform as expected. This is just the nature of the beast. The best way to counter this nature is to continue to pursuit talent in all fronts (Rule IV, IFA, FA, etc) and replenish the major league team with as much legitimate studs as possible.

       Relying on a bunch of low ceiling players to be good as you expect them to be is bound for failure.

       1. KuKo……….”Relying on a bunch of low ceiling players to be good as you expect them to be is bound for failure:……you do recall a 15 years ago five players with midland ceilings and relatively modest BA rankings …Howard( one ranking- BA-27), Rollins (two rankings-BA-31) Utley (one ranking-BA-81)., Ruiz and Victorino…never ranked…were able to ascend to higher levels

          1. Even Werth got only as high as BA-48 in 2000.

             1. you can nit pick all you want, but it requires tremendous eye and luck to find a Victorino and Werth in the recycle bin. all i can say is the Werth’s, the Shane’s, etc are the exception, there are not the rule.

          2. @romus – Howard, Chase and JRoll already has the makings of a great player (similar to what we are seeing with JPC, Hoskins and Kingery) before they joined the major league team. These are not the low ceiling players that I’m pertaining too in John Morris post.

             John Morris mentioned Cesar, Doobie, Williams, Knapp, Altherr and the young pitchers who have #3/#4 potential. These group are not Howard-Chase-JRoll group and it’s not hard to see.

             John Morris actually mentioned Kingery, but he wants Kingery to be shifted to 3B to accommodate Cesar at 2B.

             I’ve been putting all my marbles to Kingery as the future 2B for almost 2 years now. If the Phils want Machado, no need to shift Kingery. Trade Cesar ASAP and play Kingery at 2B. If Machado wants SS, then move JPC to 3rd.

             1. KuKo…..’Howard, Chase and JRoll already has the makings of a great player’…pls define that.
                Dallas Green had Howard pegged as a AAAA player when he was at Lakewood swinging and missing
                Chase’s minor league metric did not project to what he eventually would be.
                Rollins minor league overall slash….261/.328/.383…is very mediocre, but he rose to the occasion and then settled into that projection later in his career..

                1. @romus – to simply, Howard, Chase and JRoll ranked in BA Top 100. AS prospects, you don’t rank in BA Top 100 if you don’t have good potential. So they are not the low ceiling players that I’m talking about.

                   Now, compared that to the names that John Morris enumerated, it’s obvious that the Howard, Chase and JRoll are better regarded players. Maybe Williams, Alfaro and Jake are once high ceiling prospects, but after seeing them for 1 1 /2 they are not just in the same level of the Howard-Chase-JRoll and don’t provide the same impact to the team.

                2. KuKo…then IMO, we agree to disagree.

    3. Also, the Sixers drafted in the Top 10 for the last 5 drafts compared to the Phillies 4 — so the Sixers is pretty much only 1 year ahead of the Phils in the rebuild.

       Out of the 5 Top 10 picks, the Sixers got at least 2 generation talent (Fultz is remained to be seen) while Phils is only looking at Nola (who was criticized a lot for not being a TOR) as a potential superstar.

       Therefore, Klentak doesn’t need to look at the Sixers but rather look at himself and the team he is surrounded. Klentak just needs to ensure that he has the resources and the right people helping him make the best decision.

       I’m not a big fan of Klentak because he is more of pencil pusher for me. As I already posted in the previous thread, Klentak is way behind Howie and Hinkie as far as creativity, foresight and risk taking is concerned.

       1. Comparing rebuilding in Baseball to Basketball is absurd. In basketball you are assembling a roster of 12 players versus 25 (and really only 10 of those players are ever part of a rotation). And generally someone drafted at the top of an NBA draft can be a starter in year one versus MLB where they are years away (the Sixers sort of subverted this by drafting numerous players who did play for the first year or two or more). All it is much quicker to rebuild through the draft in the NBA than MLB.

          1. @Anon – baseball and basketball are not the same. But the philosophy in building a team and GMing has the same foundation baseline. If you already attended a Masters class/MBA – the students came from different ages, field of work, etc. Despite of the differences in background, the core foundation of MBA applies to all fields.

             The comparison between the Sixers and the Phillies don’t lie on the selection and assembling of players to form a team —- but rather on the rationale and foundation on how the decision making process (i.e. scouting, player development and selection of players and coaches) has been made.

          2. @Aron – I will be more specific. Just like Klentak, Hinkie’s main job is to put together a team. As a GM and decision maker, here are some of the GM moves that he did:

             a) Evaluated the team and decided that the 2 best players – in Thad Young and Evan Turner are good complimentary players and not the studs that you need to build around. Hinkie with no hesitation traded Turner for a 2nd rd pick, and find himself in a 3-way trade to dump Thad Young for a future 1st rd pick.

             b) Evaluated that the MCW (the reigning ROTY and supposedly part of the new “core”) is not good enough, and again find himself as a 3rd fiddle in a 3-way trade and dump MCW for a conditional 1st rd pick. This move received a lot of criticism from the fans and everybody.

             c) Traded every other player that are not studs for future 2nd rd picks and open roster space for what Brett Brown called as “gypsies” — these gypsies produced Robert Covington and TJ McConnel.

             d) With payroll flexibility on his had, Hinkie absorbed contracts for future picks with the best one with SAC getting the pick swap in 2018 and unprotected Rd 1 in 2019 to absorb contracts of Jason Thompson, Carl Landry and Nick Staukas. Hinkie gave up 2nd rounders that he acquired from letter b) and c). McGee is another roster dump that Hinkie absorbed for future Rd1.

             e) Hinkie also did not hesitate to bet on high risk gamble like Joel Embiid. Because he knows that generational talent rules the game.

             f) Hinkie also acquired usable players (i.e. Ilyasova) an flip for future picks.

             If you look at the though process behind Hinkie’s moves, you can see that Klentak can apply the same to the Phils:

             – don’t hesitate to move complimentary players for a chance to get an elite talent. Young and Turner is almost similar to Doobie and Cesar. Good MLB players, but complimentary but not stud.

             – MCW is similar to a young low ceiling MLB player. Trade them while their value is high. The Phils have a lot of marginal MLB players that are not elite. Hinkie will not hesitate to these these low ceiling players for whatever — international $$, low minors

             – Payroll flexibility. This is the most popular suggestion in this site. Absorb contracts for prospects. Hinkie will not hesitate to do this.

             NBA and MLB are definitely 2 different sports that have different mechanics but GMs of both sports can apply the same GM philosophy.

21. I don’t think moving Hoskins to LF is going to affect him as a hitter. It’s also not going to impact his LT development at 1B. He’ll get some reps there this season, and eventually he’ll move on over (unless he develops into a plus fielder as an OF, of course). The one problem it might cause is below average defense on that side of the field.

    I agree wholeheartedly on Herrera.

    Overall, they’ve been pretty darn patient with the rebuild. The Santana signing cost them nothing but a second round pick. They’ve got a ton of assets, similar to what the Sixers had recently. They also have the same problem: A glut of position players (instead of bigs) and a lack of pitching (instead of wings). They need to complete a deal to alleviate this.

    Hernandez is a good player, but if they can get value for him and hand the starting 2B job to Kingery, I do it in a heartbeat. If they keep getting lowballed, they should keep him.

22. A quick look at the current state of the roster

    Top 10 position players in order of potential PAs:

    Cesar
    Herrera
    Hoskins
    Santana
    Altherr
    JP Crawford
    Knapp
    Franco
    Nick Williams
    Scott Kingery

    As it stands, I think we might see Kingery or Cesar stretched out as a 3B if Franco doesn’t hit in the first month of the season. That wouldn’t be any crazier than moving Hoskins to LF. There is a ton of OBP in the top 7 guys in PAs. I don’t have Rupp or Alfaro listed, even though one of them will probably crack the top 10, because I like this version better 🙂

    Top 5 starters (by IPs):

    SPs:
    Nola
    VV
    Eickhoff
    Pivetta
    Lively

    God, this is ugly. You can replace any of the 2-5 starters with Thompson or Eflin and it’s just as bad. One of the 5 worst staffs in the majors? It’s pretty clear we need two starters in the offseason.

    Top 6 RPs:
    Neris
    Neshak
    Hunter
    Morgan
    Ramos
    Garcia

    This is a genuine strength. You can see why Klentak wanted extra quality arms here. The starters are probably only going to give you 5-6 okay innings when Nola isn’t on the mound.

    All in all, that looks like 75-78 wins without any help.

23. While I wanted Klentak to sign Darvish (and preferably Ohtani which is now moot), I don’t expect the Phils to hand out big $$ contracts to SPs this offseason. The biggest driver to the success of the 2018 season will be the development of the pitching stuff in the 40-man.

    Vinny and Pivetta – are they reliable starters or the Phils just start to convert and development them as high leverage arm with their mid-90s FB and a solid breaking ball?

    Lively, Eflin, Jake and Leiter – are they still legitimate option or are they bound to be journeyman?? Eflin and Jake can still salvage their career as a pen arm with their FB-SL combo.

    Seranthony, Anderson and Kilome – all 3 are solid pen arms with high probably of success. is pen their fate or anyone from this trio can make a good impression and show MOR potential? Seranthony appears headed to the pen in 2018, not a good indication.

    Taveras and Ranger – both are owners of the best change ups in the system and showed ability to put batters away. Hidden gems or will be overmatched in the majors?

    I will always be high on Nola and I see him take the Cole Hamels role. Eickhoff will continue to be a dependable starter but he probably reached his ceiling as a starter. So a true break out performance from Vinny, Pivetta, Anderson, Seranthony and Kilome can help turn the page and start the year of contending for the Phils.

24. Corey’s Seven Pitchers the Phillies Should Target:
    http://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/phillies-starting-pitcher-trade-targets

    I am in on Fulmer, Duffy and even Cole Hamels in July, then a resign here
    He omits Stroman.
    But has fav Archer
    Also adds Gerit Cole and surprisingly Corbin and Greinke of the DBacks..

    1. I’m intrigued by the idea of taking on Greinke’s salary if it doesn’t cost too much in prospects. If the D-Backs are ready to give up on Owings, they could take Cesar and move Segura back to SS. Would Cesar and a pitching prospect get such a deal done? Say, Kilome?

       A trade for Duffy or Fulmer would still be on the table, using Williams and a few other prospects. A rotation of Greinke/Nola/Duffy/Eickhoff/VV or Pivetta suddenly doesn’t look so bad …

       1. “Greinke/Nola/Duffy/Eickhoff/VV or Pivetta suddenly doesn’t look so bad …”
          that rotation could go down to the wire in September with the Nats for the NL East. or at least at a minimum, qualify for a wild card berth.
          I just do not have the confidence in Matt Klentak to orchestrate all those moving parts to get that end result done.

          1. I think they’ve got a plan. All of the moves they’ve completed up to this point (signing Santana and bolstering the pen) points to an intent to compete this season. They also appear to be aiming high for a SP in trade. I doubt they make a move for Greinke, but I think they do improve the rotation in the coming months.

             1. With KC’s Duffy……take on 33-year old Ian Kennedy’s contract also, and he can slide into the 5 spot of the rotation, then the exchange may be very beneficial for the Phillies for Duffy. Heck add a little more surplus value from the Phillies farm …and maybe get the CBA Round A pick form the Royals, making up for the 2nd round pick loss from the Santana signing.

                1. I’m all for any moves where the Phils flex their financial advantage in order to bring in talent and avoid losing prospects. They won’t be in this position again after next year.

             2. If they get Greinke, does that mean Neshek finally gets his autograph?

                1. Hah….now wouldn’t that be something.

       2. Segura is a Mariner so your proposal won’t work. 😉

          1. Jeez, did I sleep through 2017?

             All the more reason to offer Hernandez!

25. KuKo, I generally agree with you, but I can equate Thad Young and Doobie, but Cesar is better than Evan Turner. Your point is very good. Klentak needs to take stock of what he has, decide who the players are that will be part of a Playoff team, and move the rest for future picks/prospects or upgraded talent in a multiple player for 1 player.

26. Machado is believed to be traded by week’s end or not at all until the trade deadline. Nobody’s willing to part with two of their top controllable arms. But I would offer Baltimore the following:
    Franco and Joseph along with any three pitchers in the organization, except Nola or Sixto. We could take Trumbo and his inflated salary as well and flip him, perhaps ask for some int’l money too. Don’t know if it would be enough to get Manny from the O’s but it’s a reasonable risk that I’d be willing to take in hopes that once he’s here, he’ll be more inclined to want to stay. Of course, winning at CBP would bring the party atmosphere back to South Philly.

    1. 8mark…unless the ownership changes it mind……Manny stays an Oriole….and they will suffer for it in the long run, since they will not get half what they could have received this month if they moved him now vs waiting until July or August.
       Also…..they would receive even more if they let a team have the 72-hour window to negotiate a LTC with Machado and Dan Lozano before finalizing a deal…..but hey that will be their issue come October 2018…they may be staring at the 32nd pick in the 2019 draft.

    2. Possible Returns For Manny:
       http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=493712

       1. Romus,

          This reminds me of Ohtani and Stanton. We, who are Phillies focused, discuss all kinds of scenarios for getting our man. But in the world at large, rarely a mention of the Phillies or, as in this case, none.

          So far, the Phillies’ biggest move is getting a first baseman. Who’da thunk it?

          1. Frank,
             Orioles just t lost closer Zach Britton until July perhaps with a torn Achilles…he also a FA after ’18.
             Their window is closing on value returns for Machado, Britton and maybe even Jones.
             I was wrong…I thought that Andy MacPhail could work out a deal with the Os and also a subsequent LTC signing for Manny since he is very familiar with the Angelos family, father and sons, and Manny and his agent.
             Se la vie!

             1. Trading for Machado will freeze plans at 2B & 3B until next off-season. Without an extension in place, you hold CeHe at 2B & you keep Kingery from being called up.

                Based on this, it would be prudent to stand pat, let Franco raise his trade value, & give Kingery a chance in the majors this year, then decide on whether to pursue MM next year. History will show that he will play very well this year to get the big extension.

                Based on Klentak approach, they could take on Grenke if the D-Backs take enough of his salary. Could be worth it if his salary burden is about $20M annually, which would require the D-backs to take on $60M over 4 years.

                I would rather package the pitching depth & trade for a controlleable young SP with TOR potential to grow with this team.

27. Marlin’s Jeter Holds Town Hall With Season Tix Holders:
    …….oh boy…he would get more love in NY!
    http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=493702

    1. I read that players might be paying Jeter too get traded.

28. Giants get Longoria. Does that signal a willingness to deal aSP? I would think so and there is a great match up with Phils.

    1. You obviously mean Tampa. Here’s the thing. Tampa will trade us Archer for Sanchez and Kingery. Would you do that? I know I wouldn’t. If Tampa would accept other players, then we could have a deal but I think some team might trade them their #1 prospect.

    2. Matt they traded Matt Moore to the Rangers.

       1. I apologize, I meant did trading Longoria signal that TB was open for business. I would not trade Sixto or Kingery for Chris Archer.

          1. Me niether

29. Going back a bit, I really think too much is expected of Crawford and Kingery. Galvis is gone – no complaints. However, getting rid of CH means we turn the middle infield over to two unproven offensive players (at the major league level). Imagine if Franco does not hit. That means one of the possibly weakest infields in all of baseball. I agree that both Crawford and Kingery are great prospects but they are just that: prospects. Particularly in the case of Kingery who has very little AAA experience. As I said yesterday, you cannot hurry the Process without derailing it. Keep CH. Slide Kingery into the lineup gradually, possibly with some time at third base depending on Franco’s performance. Maybe even give him some outfield experience. If the past holds true, CH will improve even further thus raising his eventual trade value.
    How many times in the past have we seen much heralded prospects arrive in the majors as the future of major league baseball, only to fizzle after a year or two and slide back into oblivion. Nobody is saying that this is going to happen to Crawford or Kingery, but it could, particularly when the press, the fans and many others are touting them as future franchise players when they have yet to prove they are worthy of a solid position on the roster. Let’s leave well enough alone and go after a solid no. 2 or 3 young starter, preferably left-handed and save the energy and dollars for the Machado sweeptstakes after next season. Trust the Process (though K. is no Hinkie, a man of vision if there ever was one).

    1. Cesar’s value will diminish as he gets closer to free agency. I don’t think they should give him away for nothing, but if they can get value for him, and they have a replacement available in Kingery, they should move him.

       Regarding young players, I think you’ve got to trust your scouting and let them show you what they’ve got. Players like Crawford and Kingery need reps. They need to see big league pitching, then adjust as pitchers adjust to them. That only comes with playing every day. If they bust? Then you bring up another guy or sign/trade for someone. It’s the nature of the business.

       1. “Then you bring up another guy” – who? ( not from the Phil’s system)
          “or sign/trade for someone” – at what cost in prospects?
          A good GM must be ready to accept risk, but only measured, reasonable risk that does not jeopardize the overall process.

          1. @John Morris – 2B doesn’t cost a lot in terms of money and prospect unless you talking of a perennial all-star 2B with loud tools — Cesar is not the perennial all-star 2B with loud tools. Klentak will not get a haul for a Cesar-type player and it will not cost the Phils a bounty of prospects to get a Cesar-type via trade.

             Unless you’re looking for someone like Altuve or Utley, solid 2B are not hard to find. Most teams will just convert some of their SS to fill a 2B position. And in the past few years, Sal A. has been doing a good job in finding solid middle infield prospects with better tools and abilities that Cesar. Even in the upper minors, the Phils already have some Cesar-like players in Valentin, Alvarez and Gomez.

          2. “A good GM must be ready to accept risk, but only measured, reasonable risk that does not jeopardize the overall process.” — you’r talking like Cesar is the Joel Embiid of the Phillies process. Trade a Nola, might set the Phillies back and possibly Doobie.

             It is also ironic that you talking about GM’s being ready to accept risk, and yet you prefer a low-risk, low ceiling player in Cesar than a high-risk, high reward prospects like JPC and Kingery.

    2. @John Morris —- “prospects but they are just that: prospects.” — this is the lamest excuse that’s been overused a lot of time. Most if not all the best players in the MLB past and present — guess what?? are once known as prospects. If a GM is giving up a future HOF in place of a prospect, then you have a point. But Cesar is not a HOF future.

       What skill set do you think that Cesar can still improve? If he going to hit .370 and 0.420 OBP? If he going to be a regular 20-20? if he going to be a GG winner or an all-star? can he play other position? In sports and athletics, your success is most likely limited to your skills and abilities. Cesar doesn’t have the loud tools that can increase his ceiling and skyrocket his career — and he is limited only to 2B — one of the least demanding defensive position in baseball. we’ve seen Cesar for 10 years now and the eye test result is still the same since Cesar was a prospect. Cesar is a light hitting 2B with good plate discipline.

       You need to be balance in your assessment. You cannot just assume that all good things will happen to Cesar (i.e. still continue his development after years of playing major league baseball) and doubt the abilities of the prospects.

       Most of us here know that I’m on Kingery as the future 2B bandwagon for 2yrs + now. Kingery’s climb in the nationwide awareness and rankings at least proved to me that I’m not bias in my assessment.

       1. Cesar is not that light hitting and he has improved all facets of his game continually through the minors and into the majors. He’s quite a good offensive player and his power could still increase given his skill set. I don’t get why the love of Kingery (which I share) seems to detract from Cesar’s abilities, but around here, it does.

          1. On the Phillies…most of all Cesar’s peripheral metrics were plus….however he was ninth in SLG (.421) of all position players on the team and tied with Freddy for 13th in ISO @.127…..his wRC+ was a respectable 111 with 100 being about league average….and which incidentally Doobie sat at, 100.

             1. That’s the first time Ceaser had his slg % over .400 since he’s been 19 . Plus Kingery had a slg of .608 in Reading .

          2. @catch – Cesar’s ISO is consistent in minors vs majors at 0.095ish — which is below the 0.140 league average, therefore, he is a light hitter. NAt this stage of his career, Cesar will no longer made adjustments to his mechanics so I’m not sure where Cesar will get that power surge that you expect – he has no room to physically grow, no power from the wrist and his swing.

             I think my current assessment as “light hitting 2B with good plate discipline is accurate”. Cesar will need to increase that ISO and tap that speed to increase his current value. I guess that 95% of the GMs don’t expect that to happen.

             1. @KuKo, I agree with you

             2. Cesar is well above average as an offensive player. In the last 4 years his OPS+ has gone from 61, 92, 106, 112. He is also a well above average defensive player. He has improved his numbers each year and he seems to be developing more power. Is he an all-star? No, probably not, but he’s right at the level below that and he’s darned good!

                Just say you like Kingery more (like I do!) and go from there, but shooting down Cesar is a silly way to go about this. Cesar’s a very good player and he might still get quite a bit better. He’s not the reason the Phillies were bad. He’s one of the reasons they weren’t a lot worse.

                1. Kingery can play multiple positions, CeHe cannot

                2. That’s not the point. I am NOT arguing that Cesar is better than Kingery is going to be. To the contrary, I’m as big of a supporter of Kingery as there is on this site. This not a comparison between the two players. It’s about people undervaluing Cesar (ultimately for purposes of a trade) and taking some kind of unfair shots at him for reasons I really don’t understand.

                3. @catch – i’m not sure why you keep saying that people are undervaluing Cesar? This statement is just similar to some people overvaluing Cesar. Rather that complain and do your generalization with lack of specifics, I want you to debunk this assessment of Cesar:

                   LIGHT – his career ISO of .095 is way below the league ave
                   HITTING – we know that Cesar can hit. He’s a legitimate 0.290+ hitter
                   2B – he can only play 2B effectively and nothing else

                   with

                   GOOD PLATE DISCIPLINE – like hitting, this is unquestionable.

                   The statement above is — Light hitting 2B with good plate discipline. so what part of this statement is being undervalued? The hitting and plate discipline will no longer have a lot of improvement (Cesar will max out at .295 ave and .365 OBP) — so the room for improvement is only on speed/baserunning and power/ISO.

                   I will give Cesar the benefit of the doubt in the baserunning, but I agree with Murray that coaching may not fix bad instincts. And power? Obviously that career ISO 0.095 has a lot of room to improve. Cesar is a singles and doubles hitter — even if Cesar maintained his career 2017 offensive numbers – the ISO 0.127 is still below league average.

          3. i intentionally put 2B after the light hitting because Cesar cannot effectively play any position other that 2B.

             1. Catch – he’s good but not worth another team’s top pitchers. Kingery has higher upside.

          4. Cesar’s career offensive numbers are eerily consistent in minors vs majors. The improvement that I can positively expect in increase in SB to 20 with improved SB%. I don’t even expect Cesar to average above 0.300 hitting and 0.380 OBP on a year to year basis starting next year. Cesar ISO can increase to above 0.100 but it will still be way below the league average.

             1. Honestly, Cesar is the worst base runner with his speed that I have ever seen. He has no feel as to when to take the extra base and when to stop. He usually just stops because he doesn’t want to be out. His feel for stealing bases is just as bad. Coaching won’t change him unfortunately, he just doesn’t have the instincts.

             2. KuKo:
                Cesar’s ISO was .127 in 2017.
                BB10.6 %……K18.0 %….ISO.127….BABIP .353
                Where did you see less than.1?

                1. @romus – i evaluated players based on their total body of work – so minors, majors, everything. not a particular hot/cold stretch or a good/bad year.

                   what your post above tells me is that Cesar has a career year offensively (career best HR, 2B, SLG, OPS) in 2017 – which is not the point. Even in Cesar’s career best offensive his ISO is still way below league average – so he is a light hitter.

                   Looking at Cesar’s 10-year body of work, his majors and minors stats matched the eye test. Cesar is a reasonable .290/.360/.395 with 15-20 SBs.

                   Can still still improve? Yes of course, that SB% and ISO is bad that there’s no way for it but to go up.

          5. Cesar is a “nice” player, a good 2b. What I don’t get is the widely held idea that he’s indispensable to the transition of young players. His value is declining as each week passes. He’s not a core piece for the future. Some people laughably suggest he can hold down 3b. (Yeah, ONLY IF Manny Machado is on his left side, because at least the latter has power.) In my opinion, this isn’t a question of who’s better – Cesar or Kingery – but rather a question of maximizing a player’s value while he’s sustained a level of proficiency. Kingery’s power alone (even if he’s just a 15-20 homer guy) justifies trading Cesar, not to mention Kingery’s leadership intangibles and head for the game. Sorry, I really don’t see CeHe ever having the increased power or improving other skills to profile as any more than he already is, a nice player.

             I like what Klentak has done the past week or so, but I’m afraid he’s playing chicken with potential trade partners, holding out for what he won’t eventually get anyway. If Archer (who Tampa doesn’t HAVE to trade) will cost us too much in prospects, I’d offer a package around Cesar to Detroit for Fulmer. Then it wouldn’t matter to me whether we went lower range for somebody like Cobb OR who knows? Maybe Darvish or Arrieta linger through January and we find a relatively short term, front loaded FA bargain in either of them.

       2. light hitting 2b. Your cant be serious. He has gotten better and better, really the disrespect for this kid is silly. Especially for guys who watch the game.

          1. Ok, he’s not light hitting like Richie Ashburn. But is he among the top 20 MLB second basemen in terms of HR/gap power?

             1. 8mark….yes….he is number 18 in ISO according to Fangraphs at .127

                1. I stand corrected, Romus……..I think.

          2. @roccom – i don’t need to be serious. Just look at Cesar career ISO in minors and majors – 0.094/.095. even in Cesar’s best offensive year, his ISO is 0.127 — still below league average.

             Cesar is a singles/doubles hitter. People don’t talk about Cesar’s power since he signed with the Phils >10 years ago. Also, look at Cesar’s career HR and 3B.

       3. God this game is so off base. Hernandez has improved every single year he’s been up. Why can’t he continue to improve and why can’t he improve his base stealing? If he can get to 30plus SB which is in his range w his speed, that’s an all star 2B right there. Period.

          1. Take* not game

30. Just a general comment – everyone needs to understand that Klentak is smartly not going to trade assets for one year, and maybe not two years, of any player with the “hope” of any extension. That includes a pitcher as well as MM. if they get an extension, great, then they’ll do a deal. MM is not doing an extension. A pitcher might do an extension to get the certainty of future cash. The only one year player we would take would be the salary dump type that doesn’t cost us real assets. I still think an OFer will go in trade for a pitcher but I’m not sure who that pitcher might be. Guesses??

    1. I firmly believe Klentak is working on something. Probably wanted to make sure the Slamtana deal was official.

       1. I thought so but now I don’t. I think he made the Santana move to be able to trade an OF if a real deal offer came up but I don’t believe anything is close. I think it’s a waiting game now to see if trade and/or FA prices come down. That could take to Feb. patience is required by us all!

    2. Agree Murray,

       The O’s will ask at least one of Nola or Sixto for 1-year rental of MM. Any 2 of Eickhoff, Pivetta, Vinny, Lively, Anderson, KIlome comes with a big question mark that will make the O’s look for better offers.

       The only FA signings I like to see are Darvish, McGee, Shaw and Watson. I guess, none of this will happen.

       With the Santana signing, I’m still optimistic that trade will be coming involving some of the young players in the 40-man and some prospects.

       1. Everyone who I have heard talk about Machado. says he will test the fa waters. So why would you give them anything good for one year of him. Especially even with him, your still a non playoff team. Sixto is a better prospect than kingery.

          1. Roc,

             Sixto vs Kingery? Why would you compare a pitching prospect vs a position prospect? I like oranges more than apples, so what?

             Two things are going against the Phillies right now –
             1 Everybody knows Klentak HAS to trade Cesar because they know that Kingery is the apple of the FO’s eye, whether they be right or wrong. He’s got to realize that, be honest, and pull the trigger before he’s standing by himself holding two 2b and looking like a goof.
             2 Everybody knows (including MM) that the Phillies have a serious man crush on Machado. Every scenario that’s been discussed carries inherent risks of getting/not getting their man come free agency ’18.

          2. rocco…..you are correct.
             And many GMs think the same.
             And we are not talking about the 29 other GMs , but a handful that have a current interest in Machado.
             Then come July…..why give up much for a one year rental hoping to get into the playoffs and deep into them also..
             And come July it will be a two-month rental without compensation.

31. The market is moving very slowly. For whatever, MM deal or no deal ? none of the big free agents have signed (unlike this time last year) , or even look close to signing. So far, peripheral events seem to shape the news, Britton’s injury ? does this force the O’s hand to go for the make over now or ? Does the Longoria trade mean Tampa will retool ? It seems like these sideline events may have significant effect on who is available and for how much…..This all looks like a high stakes game of chicken – waiting for somebody to flinch. Last guy who flinches wins – and this is going to take some time to play out. Criticize Klentak all you want, but he is dealing in a passive market and to force the action when your opponents are afraid to act would be injurious. We are all stuck watching the chickens brown on the rotisserie.

32. Just an idea, But how about a two year deal for Johnathon Lucroy. He would be an upgrade over Rupp and let the team ease Alfaro into the starters role. Knapp can be the AAA catcher to start the year or a lefty bat off the bench if you dont carry 13 pitchers.

    1. Love Lucroy. I’m down with that. Make Knapp the back-up and work him in there. If he gets better than Lucroy, then flip Lucroy or make them share the position for a while. Let’s not waste a lot of time with this Alfaro experiment – I don’t see him ever having the OBP to be anything but frustrating.

       1. I don’t like the idea. Prefer the guys we have now.

       2. Not sure what team would want Alfaro. I would guess a tear down team might depending on their current prospect depth.

          I think a vet catcher would help the staff, and before Santana, would be a stabilizing player in the lineup.

          I think trades of Alfaro and Williams may be at sell high, so I’d be thrilled if they could headline trade for a good pitcher, but that is not enough.

          With injury risk so high for catchers, I would invest less money, be willing to have a non-star player at that position.

33. I understand that there are a lot of folks on here that like Cesar. I think he is a good player, not a very good one, and not a focal point of a Contending team. Maybe we are wrong about Kingery, but I believe in his ceiling. Not to compare him to Utley, but the Phils traded a very good player, in Placido Polanco, to make room for him.I believe that Polanco was a better player than Cesar is. That is not, at all, any disrespect to Cesar. The longer he stays here, the less valuable he becomes. The Phils can keep Kingery in AAA all year if they choose to. That does not make Cesar more valuable next off season. Maybe they do that? Maybe they end up getting little for him or someone gets hurt during the year, and they trade him. Whatever they do, the thought to trade him this off season is not based on disrespecting him, but wanting the team to get back to Contention, and believing that Kingery will be more of a central figure in that team than Cesar.

    1. I’d have a better feel if I knew what the offers for Hernandez were. Hard to just give away a good player

    2. But the Polanco trade was terrible. I certainly hope they don’t repeat that mistake.

       1. Actually it’s a good cautionary tale of why you have to be careful not to trade a guy in too hasty a manner. If they had just kept him he could have played third base rather than trading him for a psychopath relief pitcher.

          1. Actually, 3B was considered an area of strength back then. They had Bell coming off a 4 WAR season and two good 3B prospects (Juan Richardson and Jake Blalock). Plus there were concerns that Utley might not be able to handle 2B, so they had a SS prospect (Anderson Machado) ready to take over and shift Utley back to third.

             Pretty sure everyone thought 2B was the place we had to be worried about.

             1. The point is that they traded a very valuable player (Polanco) for a MUCH less valuable player when they thought they had the positions covered. With very few exceptions, it’s almost always a bad idea to execute a trade of any kind where the value given notably exceeds the value received. My view of this is that the GM who executed the trade (Ed Wade) simply wasn’t value focused at all (this was in the dinosaur era of Phillie analytics – meaning there was none other than scouting reports and what we all could read on the back of a baseball card), he just thought he had an extra second baseman and felt he needed a relief pitcher. I don’t think there was much more thought to it than that.

                These trades usually come back to haunt you, and this one certainly did. And, you’re right about David Bell’s 2004 season, but he was in the middle of a very bad season as a declining 32 year old when the trade was executed and within a year the trade could be seen for what it was – a full blown disaster.

34. Travis Wood is available, I’d sign him as a low risk, medium upside guy, probably get him on a minor league deal

35. Regarding the IF (2B, SS, 3B), the Phils basically have 4 guys for 3 positions. Of those 4, one has never spent a day in the majors, one had an awful season last year, one is promising but unproven, and the other is Cesar Hernandez. The Phillies do not need to trade him. I’d start the year with Kingery in AAA and the other 3 starting and evaluate Franco’s performance at Memorial Day and see how to proceed. I personally think Crawford, Kingery and JPC are the 3 to keep, but I hope Franco surprises us all. I think Santana has a chance to get through to Franco in a way coaches haven’t. I think Santana is a very good player but his biggest contribution could be his mentoring of Franco and Odubel.

    1. ” I personally think Crawford, Kingery and JPC are the 3 to keep,”????

       1. Crawford and JPC are alter egos, Romus. He probably meant Sixto.

          1. Perhaps.
             Still too early in the morning for me to reason.

             1. romus stop the all night drinking m8

       2. Oops, JPC, Kingery, and Cesar

36. Still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Be nice if it happens before Christmas.

    1. was just thinking the same thing….. we want to know klentak! Well Alfaro may now make sense in a TB trade for Archer. Maybe the other teams are setting themselves up as well, causing a delay for us patient phans

       1. I’ll drive him to the airport.

          1. Alfaro isn’t going anywhere. But h could make sense to a team like the Rays…DH type player who is lost cost

             1. *he

          2. I hope to Miami along with other things for a certain catcher but I doubt it happens. He’s the one guy on the team I’d be looking to move for an upgrade at C or maybe a pitching upgrade.

37. Fangraphs’ Travis Sawchik ….Are The Phillies Spending Wisely?
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-the-phillies-spending-wisely/

38. catch, I agree with you that the return for Polanco was terrible. I was simply stating that the Phils traded him to make room for Utley. They may keep Cesar. His return may be minimal no matter when they trade him. My only real point was that looking into the future and thinking that Kingery will be a better player is not a sign of disrespect to Cesar.It is simply a belief that Kingery will be a better player. All I want is the Phils to be a perpetual contender, starting no later than next season. I see Kingery as a key part of that.

    1. matt – I agree with you. IMO, they may need to take what they can get for CeHe to make room for Kingery. That’s a solid trade off.

    2. True but we have to remember that Cesar is very good and relatively cheap so he’s not going anywhere unless the Phils get value for him. I am totally in the Kingery bandwagon but too much talent is never a bad thing. Guys get hurt, other teams get injuries, things tend to work themselves out.

39. Merry Christmas everyone. One quick question that may have already been asked/answered in the myriad of responses over the last week but if Tommy Hunter was officially signed on Dec 15 why does it take so long for them to add him to the roster, etc?

    Again maybe someone answered this but I have noticed this to happen occasionally from Dec 15 until Feb. I just assume he is away and unable to take physical or something but every now and then there is a problem (like failing a physical).

    1. I don’t think Hunter is official, yet. Probably just timing with the physical. They do this a lot, it seems. The free agent catcher who was with the Braves (Abrahan Gutierrez) hasn’t posted yet either.

       1. Thanks Jim, hope to get down for a game or two this spring. Looking forward to March in beautiful Clearwater. Merry Christmas!

40. Michael Fulmer is not that high on my wishlist because of some injury concerns. But can the Phils acquire Fulmer with Zimmerman’s $75M contract for Cesar, Pivetta and a throw in like Leiter?

    1. I wouldn’t think the Tigers trade their best player and asset in a salary dump. I like Fulmer, but I don’t love the injury issues and his K/9 numbers leave a lot to be desired. If they move him it’s for a haul he’s under contract four more years dirt cheap and valued highly league wide.

41. Pivetta has a chance to be really good. I wouldn’t do this deal.

    1. @roccom – true, i like Pivetta too. But DET will ask for a high upside young SP in any deal with Fulmer. DET don’t really have a payroll salary situation so the $75M dump may not be a big deal for them. Pivetta, Vinny and Kilome are the potential selling point and Pivetta is probably the best option based on health and upside.

42. I no longer want to talk about Cesar, but rather some of the players in the 40-man what we are not talking about as much. There are 2 SPs in the 40-man that I really like – Drew Anderson and Seranthony Dominguez. I both can hold really good value as high leverage pen arm although both have health risks. But I want to know from anyone what you think of Anderson and Seranthony’s comparable and potential as starters.

    Anderson – his ceiling is deGrom lite as #3 potential with the development of his CU. I think the FB-CB is really good. Although the command in 2017 has inconsistencies, this is not a big concern. Nola started as a FB-CB guy, and eventually develop a reliable CU.

    Seranthony – the play of moving him to the pens is too premature for me. I thought of reading here or somewhere (because it’s not in the MLB site), that Seranthony has a plus SL/CB or slurve and a his CU is already above average. A plus FB-SL/CB plus an average CU seems like a Enyel delos Santos-like #2/#3 potential to me.

    Ranger is intriguing because of his plus SL and CU (some reviews say that Ranger has the best CU in the system). The 91-94 FB is just fine for a LHP. I watched a lot of LWD games, but never had the chance to see Ranger in action. I will start to follow him in REA and LHV.

    Enyel delos Santos will be target SP. The reviews look good, I want to see it myself.

    1. I’m ok with Dominguez going to the pen. I think he could be dominant there and start the year the AA and end it in South Philly.

       1. South philly softball league is at the lakes on pattison avenue

       2. Seranthony was injured part of last year. If he is healthy this year you will end up wanting everybody to forget you made the suggestion to send him to the pen.

          1. HariS…i think Matt Klentak made that comment before the winter meetings…that they were planning on moving Seranthony to the bullpen.
             I think I read that somewhere…NBCSports Jim Salisbury or MLB.com, Todd Zo

             1. I remember seeing this as well. Probably a little soon because I’d like to see him start some more at the upper levels. Though he could be a valuable high leverage RP and it probably gets him here faster.

    2. I have watched all three pitchers every year since they were in Williamsport – personally, not just following their stats. The only thing I can add to your (correct) assessment of the three is that all three are driven to succeed and have a work ethic that will make Kap happy.

43. The two-hole hitter:
    Will be different not having Freddy in the two-hole next season!
    Kapler’s approach.

    “In the two-hole, I think it’s a really important spot in the lineup, gets on base, comes up with men on base quite frequently,” Kapler said. “Carlos (Santana) can handle the two-hole. We know that he can slug and hit for power, so the three-hole might be a good spot for him too. So who knows? He can hit anywhere in the lineup and that’s part of what makes him especially attractive is, we can mix and match and move him around.”

    1. I actually like Santana in the 2-spot specifically because he can both get on base and drive in runs. Just not sure they really have a 3-hitter with him hitting 2nd…

       1. I guess Herrera would be the guy closest to that designation if Santana is in the two-hole.
          With Hoskins as clean-up, I do not see any of Franco, Altherr, Williams, or Alfaro/Knapp able to handle it.
          I would like to see JPC step-up and be that two-hole hitter soon, then Santana can go to the three., .

       2. Long term, JP is your 2-spot hitter – he’s ideal for that place in the line-up.

          1. I agree long term but don’t think he should start there out of the gate. Needs a little time to get adjusted…

             1. I would expect Crawford to struggle next year, for the first half, maybe a month less. He will struggle so much.. people will be clamoring for Galvis. After he his through that learning curve, I expected him to be what he is going to be at the MLB level. He tooks some lumps this year, but I dont think his learning curve is over just yet.

    2. 3-hole is probably best for Santana batting behind Doobie-Cesar and followed by Hoskins as the clean up. Williams or AA will be protecting Hoskins depending who pitches – RHP or LHP.

       1. agreed, but I don’t see Cehe making it through the offseason. I guess we will know relatively soon.

       2. KK, agreed, except I see the outfield as a bit more fluid than that. There will be days when Hoskins is playing 1B. There will also be days when Odubel is on the bench (either rest or discipline). Positional flexibility. Hernandez may be here until the trade deadline. Crawford has shown he can handle 3B. Betcha Kingery gets a few games at 3B in AAA to start the year.

          1. After the Phillies soon trade Odubel for Archer, I see a regular OF of Hoskins-Altherr-Williams with an intact Quinn as floating 4th man, and Rhys spelling Santana at 1b once or twice a week.

             1. Since the bullpen will be 8 deep, the 12 position slots:

                Santana – 1b/DH interleague road games
                Cesar – 2b, Kingery – 2b/3b
                JPC – ss/3b/2b
                Franco – 3b/1b
                Florimon or Valentin – utility IF
                Hoskins LF/1b
                Altherr CF/LF/RF
                Williams RF/LF
                Quinn 4th OF
                Alfaro c/1b
                Knapp c/1b
                veteran catcher (AJ Ellis return? Knows Kapler from LAD days)

                1. The vet catcher has already been signed, Eric Fryer, the Cards backup on a minor league deal. Santana will also be emergency catcher. No team carrying 13 pitchers is also going to carry a third catcher.

                2. Hari, Eric Fryer was signed to a minor league contract and won’t necessarily be on the 25-man roster. He’ll more likely be depth in Lehigh Valley. Santana hasn’t caught since 2014 due to concussion issues similar to Joseph’s.

                   Mark, Ellis reached agreement with the Marlins a couple weeks ago for $2.5M..

44. Phillies have announced minor league staffs
    https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/phillies-announce-2018-player-development-field-staffs/c-263886656

    1. GCL Phillies East and GCL Phillies West!! I like it!

45. Excerpts from the recent Jay Floyd interview with Adam Haseley:
    All new guys to the organization would be slated to go to the fall instructional league, following the regular season. What is that like and can you talk about the other camps you attended?

    For instructs, overall it was really beneficial, I thought. I got to meet a lot of the different coaches and the hitting instructor for High A was there and I met a lot of teammates, whether it was the Latin players or other players that I didn’t play with. I thought it was good. We got to start testing new ideas and get some more reps and travel around and play at different locations. I really enjoyed it.

    -Did you attend the strength camp or the speed camp that the Phillies hosted down there?

    I attended both of those. It was good. The strength camp got underway around October 31st or November 1st and I took two weeks off from lifting after instructs, just letting the body and mind rest, so I thought November 1st was a good time to start. In the speed camp we worked a lot of things, whether it was first jumps or form running, so it was real good. It was a good start and I have kept training. I’ve been working really hard and trying to get ready for the next season.
    To read the entire interview go to:
    http://www.phoulballz.com

    1. What time is the Christmas party Sunday romus. I am bringing a loaf of bread. okay

       1. Panettone?

46. In addition to the moves by the Big League team, I am very excited to see the young guys up their games. Haseley, MM, “C”, Sixto and Kilome and the other young Pitchers. Even Quinn and Cozens get a fresh start come February. Quinn has always been a weapon, maybe he finally stays healthy? Every good team gets a little bit of luck, so let’s get our share!

    1. matt13…..speaking of upper their game…Dylan Cozens a few days ago…no off season for him.
       https://twitter.com/dylancozens?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    2. Here are my prospects to watch:

       a) Roman Quinn – can he actually stay healthy?

       b) Sixto Sanchez and JoJo Romero – can they dominate the upper minors?

       c) Enyel delos Santos – is the stuff that good to be a potential TOR?

       d) Cornelius Randolph – showed above average power in 2017. Can he hit 0.275+ with 0.150+ ISO?

       e) Haseley – can you follow a Benintendi-like path in the minors?

       f) Mickey Mo – repeat LWD or start in A+?

       g) Kevin Gowdy – is his sutff before or worst after the injury?

       1. KuKo:
          e)…if he does follow that path, he will be in Philly in August this season.

       2. Gowdy will be out all 2018 season after Tommy John. That decision happened a few months back. You won’t be watching Roman Quinn very long. We should start a pool to bet on how long he goes before being injured. The rest I agree with. I’m also watching Jhailyn Ortiz – can he continue to hit in LWD in his age 19 season?

47. The Phillies minor league system will miss Brian Sweeney. He did a great job as the Lakewood pitching coach and the players really seemed to like him. You also can’t argue with results. He was supposedly interviewed for the Phillies pitching coach opening. Too bad he couldn’t be retained in some capacity but I guess it was hard for him to turn down a spot on the Indians staff.

    1. I wonder what kind of money those minor league coaches get??

       1. I’m guessing about $40-50k – like a youngish school teacher I’ll bet. I doubt it’s much.

       2. Can’t be that much a buddy of mine was the hitting coach for a low a team in WV and he was working at Amazon in the off season. He’s now the Manager of the Hudson Valley Renegades, no more Amazon haha

48. rocco…..a Christmas message for you from the Phillies.
    https://www.mlb.com/phillies/fans/holiday-card?partnerId=ed-12146342-1039349243

49. I did not read the whole Middleton piece that Mike Sielski did, but the thrust is that they are ready to win, and he will spend. They want to rid themselves of the small marketm frugal mindset of a generation ago. I don’t know if that was a quote or paraphrasing. Says Klentak has a bad deal on the table for a controllable SP, but that “with a tweak” it is a good deal,and one “I would do” according the the piece. Until proven otherwise, I trust that Middleton will do what he says, and I hope that SP comes soon.

    1. Mike Sielski was snowed by John Middleton in his article. Mike did not ask why as part of ownership in our glory years(2007-2011) and before that the Phillies did not spend any real money on analytics, latin american/foreign young players or beefed up scouting. I do not believe John Midlleton but at least he did not mention the legal fight with his sister this time. Real poor article by Mike Sielski which was done with no research.

50. Matt13 – article above in Philly.com states Archer and Cole are deemed to demand “an arm and a leg.” Good read.

51. Chris Archer. Reports are Klentak is talking to the Rays about him. With Evan Longoria traded to the Giants, the Rays now need a third baseman. The Phillies have one that has drawn some trade interest. Add a couple of pitchers, etc. Maybe.

    1. Hmm. Williams, Franco and Kilome?

52. I’ll bet every team we’re talking to about pitching is asking for Kingery over Cesar. Phils may have to decide whether to keep Cesar and trade Kingery for a pitcher.

    1. Which is fine. If he can help get an arm in here then I’m all for it. His ceiling isn’t THAT much higer that what Hernandez is producing (and he’s producing at the ML league level). Kingerys K/9 and BB/9 both went in the wrong direction upon his arrival in AAA. Let another team take the risk, I’ll stick w the guy who’s producing at the ML level. And who continues to improve.

       1. not, that’s not fine. Kingery will be the superior player and is much younger meaning he will still be good when the team is.

       2. It all depends on the pitcher he brings back. If Kingery + Williams gets you Gerrit Cole or Marcus Stroman, then I’d pull the trigger. It would have to be one of those two guys, though. Any of the others and Kingery is off-limits.

          Sixto Sanchez shall not be touched.

          Kingery has far better upside, and I’ve said all along I would trade Cesar if the right deal came along. But a scenario where Hernandez becomes the long-term option isn’t terrible if it brings top-end pitching in return. Let’s say they can swing a deal for Gerrit Cole using those two plus a pitching prospect, then make another deal that brings in Duffy for prospects (perhaps built around Haseley). Here’s the lineup going into 2018:

          Hernandez
          Herrera
          Santana
          Hoskins
          Altherr
          Franco
          Alfaro
          Crawford

          SP: Cole, Nola, Duffy, Eickhoff, VV/Pivetta

          That team, with the re-tooled bullpen, is a wild card contender at minimum.

          Not saying it will happen, but even if Kingery develops into Daniel Murphy 2.0, the wins will ease the sting.

          1. I still don’t understand what ppl think Kingery is gonna be. He’s not gonna be utley, he’s not gonna be pedoria. Strictly by odds, he’s not even likely to produce what Hernandez is producing. And why are people acting like Hernandez is 35, he’s not even 28, he has 5 more years of good baseball in him before you see a decline, not to mention he won’t be developing when they are good. If Kingery brings back a TOR or A 2, I’m doing it in a heart beat.

             1. It’s funny.

                I’m in the middle in this discussion.

                I think a lot of Kingery and I mean A LOT. And I base this on a lot of factors, not the least of which is having seen him play a bit. Dustin Pedroia is a former MVP, so I guess odds are that he’s not going to be that, but I do think he’s got a decent chance to be at least an occasional all-star and perhaps even regular all-star. As for him being another Utley, that’s unfair because, at his peak, Utley was on a HOF pace (one of the best 5 year production spans for second in MLB history) and still has an outside chance to get there. He could be a truly great player and not be another Utley. But my view is that the signs point to the fact that Kingery is likely to be better than Hernandez because he’s got a very good hit tool, his baseball instincts are through the roof and he’s already a plus fielder and elite runner. If he does what I think he can do, he’s going to be a borderline star pretty quickly (maybe even by year one or two) and he has the heart and soul of a lion. He wants to win the way a guy like Utley wants to win. That’s the kind of guy you build a team around. As I’ve always said, he might not be their best prospect, but I think he’s their most important prospect. He will be the post boy for the new Phillies and Kapler (who will LOVE this guy).

                But I still like Hernandez. So many people vociferously argue against him as a way to pump up Kingery. But why? Cesar’s abilities have nothing to do with Kingery’s abilities, but that’s how folks decide to make their arguments, which annoys me. Still, in the long run, I think Kingery’s going to be a better player. But if they could find some way for one of these guys to play second and the other to slot in at, say, third, you could at least make both productive until you got an offer you liked for Cesar.

                1. catch,

                   I agree with every word you say about Kingery.

                   As for Utley, he’s Number Four on the Phillies all-time WAR list ahead of Hall of Famers Ed Delahanty, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Richie Ashburn and others. He’s had an outstanding second career with the Dodgers given his age and more limited role. And as an assistant manager of the Dodgers grounds crew told me, he owns the clubhouse. I think those intangibles combined with his on-field success and his key roles in helping teams win championships from division titles to the World Series will get Utley into the Hall of Fame someday.

             2. It all depends on whether his power is for real. If it is, he could be an All Star 2B. He would certainly be a more dynamic player than Hernandez in that scenario. But, again, I’d be willing to take that risk for a big-time young starter to pair with Nola.

             3. Hernandez isn’t old but will be playing his 2018 season at the age of 28, meaning he is currently in his prime. Kingery is 4 years younger and will be entering his prime when the team is.

                If you want to make a comparison, I would say:

                Age – Kingery
                Power – Kingery
                Base Running – Kingery
                Speed – Equal
                Defense – Equal
                OBP – Hernandez
                BA – Hernandez
                OPS – Kingery

                What I expect Kingery will be is a younger version of Hernandez with more power and better base running ability.

                If Hernandez isn’t bringing back a TOR arm then why would Kingery.

                1. ‘Defense – Equal’…..I do not see it that way after watching both of them for the last two years. Kingery to me is 55FV60 defense. In fact, IMO, better than Utley at the same stage of their age and career status.
                   Here is 2017 SDI…just for 2nd basemen in the NL:
                   .DJ LeMahieu COL…. 10.2
                   Dee Gordon MIA ………4.3
                   Ben Zobrist CHC……..3.6
                   Brandon Drury ARI… 3.2
                   Logan Forsythe LAD….. 2.7
                   Jose Peraza CIN.. 2.6
                   Josh Harrison PIT… 1.1
                   Kolten Wong STL. -0.9
                   Brandon Phillips ATL -0.9
                   Yangervis Solarte SDP -3.2
                   Jonathan Villar MIL -4.0
                   Cesar Hernandez PHI -4.1……….*****************
                   Daniel Murphy WSN -5.2
                   Neil Walker MIL -5.8
                   Scooter Gennett CIN -6.6
                   Joe Panik SFG -6.8

                   ….now some people do not put much stock in SDI, but they do account for 25% of the Rawlings Gold Glove computations.

                2. However…… when it come to Fangraphs…Cesar is ranked 6th in all of baseball for defense….with a rating of positive 4.9.
                   Behind only Dee Gordon, Kinsler, Sanchez, Ramirez and LeMahieu….go figure.

                3. 3up,

                   I’d give the defensive edge to Kingery. He makes some amazing plays and his superb baseball instincts cause instantaneous reactions in the field lead to some plays that most others, including Hernandez, wouldn’t have made.

                   As for OBP, initially Hernandez has the advantage, but let Kingery gain experience and his numbers should move up.

          2. @Mike Honcho. I don’t think Gerrit Cole is the guy for whom I trade Kingery. He is not an Ace. Yeah, you look at his stuff and you can definitely see Ace. But he just doesn’t have that edge mentally. His best years were when he didn’t have to be The Guy and he has faltered when he was asked to be The Guy. And his homer tendencies could be killer in CBP. I’m not trading Kingery+ for two years of a #2

53. Phillies won’t be trading for a good starting pitcher

54. Kingery shouldn’t be traded. He’s a face of the franchise type of player IMO. Ill bet Cesar and one of our minor league pitchers other than Sixto is what the deal will be.

    1. Agree keep Kingery…..why not just sign Lance Lynn….and give up the third pick in the Rule 4 draft….they already lost the second with Santana.
       No prospects traded.
       And Phillies still have the max. of int’l money, even with the $500K forfeiture with the Santana signing.
       Lynn is not a TOR but he is a quality #3.

       1. I’d rather they sign Darvish, but if they could lock Lynn up at a reasonable price on something similar in duration to Santana’s contract (3 years with 4th option year), it might make a lot of sense. Lynn could go a long way to solidify a very shaky rotation.

          1. I also want Darvish first….but looks like he wants the Cubs or some other legit. contender.
             Signing both wold be a coup for sure and would show the NL that the Phillies are serious for a run.
             But…….the Phillies apparently have differing plans on the matter.
             What would the Yankees do?
             Get them both…screw the third pick and still not worry about the luxury tax issue.

             1. I agree Romus, I wanted Darvish but I think he goes to the Cubs or the Astros. What if Boras does not get Arrieta the $ he wants. Does he take a 1 year deal at $25-$30Million? And, would you take him? Maybe with an option year?

                1. I wouldn’t pay Arrieta that kind of money, even on a short term deal, unless I thought the team had an outside shot of making the playoffs. Now, if they signed a guy like Lynn then a one year or two year Arrieta deal would make a lot of sense.

                2. I learned a lot this past year from how the Eagles handled their off season. Their view was that, so long as they didn’t sacrifice the future, they would still try to spend the money and make the moves necessary to improve the team as much as possible for the coming season. I think they struck a beautiful balance, which is reflected by their record.

                   Spending money short term on starting pitchers makes sense. Starting pitching is wonderful because it’s virtually impossible to fill all 5 spots with stars (even the 2011 Phillies team had a so-so number 5 starter) and starting pitchers always get hurt. So if the team added two higher level FA starters – one on a medium length deal and one on a very short deal, they might actually give themselves a chance to compete, they would free up some younger pitchers for trades but there would still be two rotation spots for younger guys to audition for. I like the idea of Darvish and Lynn – boy that would make this team a lot better. If they don’t make either contract longer than 4 years, it shouldn’t hurt the team in the long run and if they can do a one year overpay for either, that would be great.

55. Romus-Lance Lynn is a gamer of a pitcher. Not going to go into the math here but sabermetrics does not like him any longer. Deteriorating peripherals and a fly ball pitcher which at CBP would be a disaster. His ERA is very much overstated (too low). That said, something tells me he is still going to be effective, especially as a # 3. I like your idea.

56. Eric D, I know we go back and forth on this and you may be right, and I may be wrong. I don’t claim to be a scout, but I have seen a lot of Cesar, and a little of Kingery. In Kingery I see a team leader, a smart Baseball player, a guy involved constantly in the game. Like Utley and Pedroia. I don’t get that feeling from Cesar. I see a good player with limited Baseball IQ, poor base running skills and good, not elite D. A good player, not a special one. The job of Matt Klentak is to make that call. Look at what Cashman has done with the Yankees in 3 years, and very little was because they simply outspent everyone. He won every trade he made. I expect John Middleton to match anyone’s ability to spend, so the job will be for Klentak to identify the elite talent from the good ones. Time will tell, but yes, what I expect from Kingery is Pedroia, and I don’t trade him.

    1. I’m higher on Cesar than you are, but I generally agree with your sentiments. As much as anything, Klentak needs to win as many trades and signings and decisions as possible. Do that for a few years and one day, you show up to work and the team is pretty darned good. They are getting there, however.

    2. Matt,

       I think you summed it up perfectly. CeHe is good. Kingery can be great. And he’s four years younger.

       1. Kingery will definitely be better than CeHe. He’s got the Utley factor. Wish they’d trade for a 1/2 pitcher but doesn’t look it as asking prices may be too higher. Phillies top guys are one or two years away. Hoping that Pivetta, Zach or Jake make yuge strides

          1. Everyone said Cody Asche had the “Utley factor” too.

             1. No, everyone wasn’t onboard with Asche…

                1. “everyone” was the wrong word, but there were a lot of comparisons of Asche to Utley

             2. Otero,

                As I recall, there were stories likening Asche’s work ethic to Utley, not making other comparisons.

                From the little I’v seen of Kingery, he definitely has the “it” factor. Matt13 summed it up well several messages above.

                1. It definitely had a lot to do with the work ethic, but it was also their swings. I recall there also being a feeling that Asche’s defense would play up a little better than the scouting reports, the same way Chase’s did.

                2. I was expecting Asche to exceed his pedigree due to the ‘it’ factor. I did not think he was a HOF or even a potential all star. BUT, I figured he would be a starter at 3B who would be an average hitter. His positional flexibility and ‘it’-ness would allow him to be super sub for years, if Franco became a star.

                3. Prospects are full of unexpected risks and surprises. I like Kingery over Hernandez long term, but there’s a decent chance (you make the odds, maybe it’s a 20 percent chance and maybe it’s a 45 percent chance – it’s hard to know) Hernandez will end up being the better player. We’ve had good surprises (Rhys Hoskins, Jerad Eickhoff, and Hector Neris come to mind) and some unexpected disappointments. Asche had a lot of things going in his favor – since we started this site, he and Dom Brown were the biggest unexpected failures. Asche had a great work ethic, he was fairly young and had a superb swing, I mean just a thing of beauty. But he couldn’t hit major league pitching and he wasn’t athletic enough and didn’t have strong enough secondary skills to justify his existence if he wasn’t at least an above average hitter.

57. Sounds like the Yanks might get Cole from Pitt for Frazier, Chance Adams, and a lesser prospect. What would a comparable package look like from the Phils?

    1. Buddy….I think comparable to the Yankees offering…..Williams, who has more raw tools than Frazier but not have the ceiling, Kilome may be close to comparable to Adams, since they want MLB ready pitching….. and not sure who the lesser prospect would be, but someone like Eshelman or Medina may be on order, since it is pitching that the Pirates also want in exchange for Cole.
       Nut the Pirates want Torres ilo of Frazier…..and the Phillies only have Kingery or jPC that come close to that quality.

       1. So would people support a Williams, Kilome, and Eshelman trade for G Cole?

          1. It wouldn’t be enough.

    2. are the Pirates down on Meadows as a prospect or might they try to get rid of both McCutcheon and Marte if they made this deal? i assume Pitt would prefer pitching and infielders, hence their request of Torres instead of Frazier.
       seems like Pitt would have use for CeHe- Harrison could be used around the diamond, especially at third depending on what they get out of Freese- adding a couple young arms like mentioned might be attractive to Pirates- only 2 years of control and the 31 homers given up by Cole last year obviously a concern, but if you’re looking to be taken more seriously, that kind of move would do it.

       1. Wow….did not know that about Cole and his propensity to give up the HR ball last season……1.4 per 9, for 2017…..more than double his previous four yearly averages.
          And in CBP that could be a real red flag…then again the Yankees are trying to get him and their stadium is a hitter-friendly HR park like CBP.

58. Thank you Jim for the info on Elniery. i guess he still has a chance. also great news on the 2 CGL teams for the amount of young ones they are trying to develop. and I agree with roccom, i think pivetta has a real good chance of being a stud starter. i wouldn’t give him up. Merry christmas and Happy holidays to all.
    gm

    1. The Phils should absolutely keep Pivetta and lock him in to 35 starts this year at the big league level and let him learn on the fly. It may take some time, but young pitching takes time.

59. Good discussion: Is Cesar + Archer better than Kingery + Duffy or Corbin or possibly just Ian Kennedy?

    1. IMO….Kingery + Duffy ,( though not Corbin), > Cesar + Archer.
       Duffy is the LHP that is required anymore in the rotation in a playoff series,especially in the WS, since over the last 15 years , 11 winners had a LHP start in the series. I prefer those odds.
       Kingery, I am not going to beat that drum anymore, in long run he is the guy for me.
       Archer…better check his last two years…….not good…..he is trending down, maybe its the team he is own, who knows.

       1. Romus, that’s some good WS/lefty info. Compelling pro-Duffy argument.

          I think Klentak has his trade ducks lined up – Duffy, Archer, Fulmer, Stroman, Cole. Just a matter of pulling the trigger. Remember, just about every team has some dead salary they’d like to unload, and Klentak should take advantage of that. Depending on who and how much should determine which.

          1. PREDICTION:
             Phillies will trade for KCs LHP Danny Duffy, and they’ll sign FA RHP Lance Lynn.

             2018 Rotation:
             Nola-Duffy-Lynn-Eickhoff-Pivetta/Velasquez(if he isn’t traded)

             1. IMO, if it were up to John Middleton right now…..it would be a rotation of top four of Darvish, Nola, Duffy and Lynn….the 5th anyone of their youngsters who can step up.
                Middleton wants to spend the money now, but understands the MacKlentak plan and is willing to let them play it out, for now. .

                1. I wont mention Cesar again after this. I don’t want him moved for a back end starter or seventh inning relief pitcher. First I rather make him a utility guy, then give him away. Klentak cant show weakness and give him away for nothing. It will show a sign of weakness. that other gm will see. imo bad business. Cesar doesn’t make a lot and has couple more years on his deal I believe. Bring up Kingery and see how good he is. if he is as good as most think. Why at his cheap salary, cant we use Cesar at third , short and second and outfield in a pinch. better than giving him away. imo

          2. 8mark…agree, ‘just about every team has some dead salary they’d like to unload’….I just hope Matty K takes advantage of that opportunity.
             With Duffy……he could also take on Ian Kennedy’s salary and perhaps pick up their CBA, 35th, pick while doing that.
             It is just that many teams anymore, outside the old Marlins regime, and the current Orioles, try to hold those picks, treating them like gold.

60. Not going to prolong the Cesar/Kingery debate. I think Klentak has one of the OFs he is willing to trade along with 1 of the group of Major League ready SPs and a lesser prospect, and if he can get one of the SPs for that, he makes the deal, otherwise it may be Jaime Garcia. I think Duffy can be gotten a lot cheaper than Cole or Archer.

    1. The Kingery/Cesar debate is a big round, endless, frustrating circle. Much like the debate about GMs. Even Ruben Amaro has his tireless supporters. It all goes nowhere.

       1. I’m not frustrated by it at all. Kingery will be 10x better

          1. Ten times better, eh? So either Kingery is the second coming of Mike Trout, or Hernandez is somehow the 2B version of Desi Relaford and we just never noticed?

             I think the situation is pretty clear. Kingery is a very good prospect, and should only be traded to get a blue-chip young pitcher. Otherwise, he should be held onto.

             Cesar is a Top 10 MLB second baseman. He should only be traded if something of value comes back. If it’s a reliever or back-end starter, or somebody’s failed prospect, forget it.

             If they’re both on the roster in April, so be it.

          2. Yes, 10 times better. I’m sure Kingery will produce one 35-40 WAR season after the next.

             1. Lol you guys really like to jump on people around here. Maybe not 10x better Kingery will be a better ball player than CeHe. Sorry if my opinion differs from you couch scouts

                1. LOL. No need to be so sensitive. I don’t think you need to be a real scout to know that Kingery is not going to be 10 better than Cesar. And, if you look real hard you’ll see that a lot of people – including me – agree that Kingery will be the better player. So we are probably more in agreement than you know, just not quite to the same degree.

                2. Some of Kingery’s metrics for 2017:
                   Reading (AA): ….317 PA, slash .313/.379/.608, … 8- 2B, 5-3B, 18 -HR,….19/22 SB, BB9% K16%,…. 166wRC+…WARP…4.0

                   LHV (AAA): ….. 286 PA, slash .294/.334/.449, …11- 2B, 3- 3B, 8 -HR, … .10/12 SB, BB4.5%, K20.%….. 117 wRC+….WARP…1.1

                   Defense:: 113 GP, six errors, .989 Fld %;…. as 2B, since assume he will be there as a Phillie

                3. Catch – just being sarcastic sorry lol didn’t have my coffee yet. Phillies are in a positions some teams envy; two solid 2B options they both do things very well.

61. catch, I just hope that this GM is as smart a his Dartmouth degree would indicate. I loved that era from ’07 to 2011, and I want the Phils to be back with the big boys again. Getting Santana gave me hope.

62. No Ohtani But Maybe Osiel:
    Phillies didn’t get Ohtani and that was a disappointment to Hinkie and KuKo…. among others…..but now there is hope for getting Osiel come July 2nd.
    Cuban RHP Osiel Rodriguez, who turned 16 on Nov. 22 and will be eligible to sign on July 2, 2018,…..his fastball sits at 93-95 mph and touches 96. A 15-year-old pitcher who can throw 90 mph is a power arm for his age group. A pitcher in Latin America who can reach 93-94 mph is at the top of his international signing class in terms of velocity.

63. MLB Cultivating China:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2017/12/22/mlb-partnership-will-see-more-than-20-new-baseball-training-facilities-built-in-china/#3479da332a01

    1. yea, i met former TOR Blue Jays pitcher Jesse Litsch at a random dive bar in Jiangsu Province, China. He was working at one of the MLB training centers nearby. I believe it was the Wuxi center (not far from me) that turned out the kid drafted by the Orioles, Xu Guiyuan. Just a matter of time before a Yao Ming-esque figure emerges in MLB and sparks an intense interest in baseball

64. i’ve been on the Kingery band wagon a long time. Kingery just has a better baseball I Q and instincts as a player. Kingery power is easily better that Ceaser was at 24 yrs old. Kingery minor SB % is much better Ceaser . Kingery a!most won a batting title at Arizona st. Kingery also adjusts quickly so his .ops should improve AAA as it did last yr in AA. I mean this will be Kingery 4 th yr he should start off solid in AAA a be ready by May or June imo.

    1. Tim I am wondering , how many times have you seen kingery play??

       1. rocco…here is a very comprehensive review and scouting report on the 2017 version of Scott Kingery by Jeff Israel:
          http://philliesminorthoughts.com/2017-eyewitness-evaluation-scott-kingery/

          1. Romus m8 have great holiday. Scouting report is nice to see. doesn’t mean he will be that much better than Cesar. but I am not saying to not trade Cesar just get value or keep him. is the way I would do it and hope the Dartmouth gm does the same.

             1. rocco…same happy holiday wishes to you and the family.

       2. 3 full games it’s easy too the difference .

          1. That’s to see the difference . @ Romus ty great scouting report I forgot about the 2 hitting streaks at LV.

65. I’m a Lynn can too along with Duffy . I can’t see the Phillies signing Santana ,Hunter , Nestek , without upgrade the Sp.

    1. Now that they already signed a player with that QO, the penalty to sign another is much less. (3rd round draft pick and the slot money with it)

66. Beato Back

67. Just saw where the Yankees signed two more int’l players, including OF Raimfer Salinas who’s been mentioned as a Phillies hopeful signing. As it currently stands, NYY has FIVE of the top 20 international prospects. Hate ’em!

    I don’t know how they do it? Yeah they’ve loads of money and the alluring market, but you still have to evaluate, acquire, and develop talent. They always seem to maintain relevance as a contender.

    C’mon MacKlentak! Flex those muscles (and I don’t mean Gabe’s) and flaunt the bling!

    1. Unbelievable what Cashman and the Yankees do with acquiring talent at the beginning of the pipeline in the Latin market….Salinas and Cabello were top ten LA prospects according to MLB.com in that class.
       I cannot fathom why other large market GMs do not do similar tactics.

       1. Romus, they sent their non-roster players to other teams for spending money on Otani who they did not sign. They did the better option of signing more top Latin players than an injured Japanese pitcher. The real question is why Klentak/McPhail did not follow this blueprint?

          1. philabaltfan….yes.
             Now in five years from now they will have to make some 40 decisions…..but then again if all these top LA players they signed pan out….then they become trade chips for MLB players….as they did to get Sonny Gray and the like.
             it is a fairly simple plan and they utilize it to the max.
             What do you think a RHP like Drew Anderson would bring back in int’l dollars….a million, maybe?
             If he is not projected to be in the starting mix of all the youngsters….why hold on to players like that

             1. Why would anyone else want him? You can’t just trade our B talent.

                1. You haven’t been reading the int’l money trading?
                   Hinkie has a list of them……and there are 25/26-year AAA pitchers getting up to 1/2 million in return. Anderson would be Grade A prime beef based on age, raw stuff, and already has that cup of coffee in the majors…which almost all do not.

68. Looks like the Dodgers are going to try to salvage the career of one- time Sox high prospect LHP Henry Owens….who the Sox dangled as part of the package for Hamels in ’15.

    http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=494081

69. Merry Christmas to all of you fellow Phuture Phillies loyal readers. I wish the very best for you and your families. Jim, I thank you for all of your hard work, making this site such a successful one, causing me to pop on it about a dozen times a day! To you and your family, the very best of the Holiday season!

70. Merry Christmas!

71. Thanks to everyone for making this such an enjoyable activity for me. Happy holidays!

    1. Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all.

       Jim, thanks for making PhuturePhillies a fun part of my life. And thanks to all the highly informed posters who every day fill PP with the most informed and thoughtful discussion.

       Looking forward to February 14 and beyond. A fun year, I hope.

72. To all participants on this site – thank you, especially Romus and Hinkie, who invariably find sites/articles and information that I do not find/see. Most of all, thanks to Jim for all his efforts and fine work in making this site so incredibly informative – all the time, every week !!!! Merry Christmas and Holiday wishes to all participants. Thanks for the constant Phillie – fix !

73. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all the PhuturePhillies families and theirs.

74. Wishing everyone the best this Christmas, true joy and true peace.

    Thanks to Jim and the crew that tirelessly make this all work. And to contributors like Romus, Hinkie, KuKo, and countless others who bleed Phillies red. This is the only regular site I visit or post and it’s because of the insight, info, and humor that you all provide for a workaday guy like myself.

    Cheers to 2018!

    1. Have a great holiday to all,

75. Happy holidays everyone. May the new year bring you joy, peace, happiness and the wonderful prospect of good Phillies baseball.

76. Happy Holidays everyone!
    I really enjoy reading Jim’s write-ups and the dialogue that follows. You all made my 2017 a little easier! Thanks.

77. Happy Holidays everyone!
    I really enjoy reading Jim’s write-ups and the dialogue that follows. You all made my 2017 a little easier. Here’s looking to the 2018 season.

78. Merry Christmas to Jim and every Phuture Phillies phans !

79. Merry Christmas to every Phillies fan. My God bless you with lots and lots of wins.

Comments are closed.