2016 Draft Discussion, May 9th

The 2016 draft discussion continues here.  These discussions will be accessible under “The Draft” menu option “2016 Draft Discussions and Picks” for reference.

BA updated their Top 100 Draft Prospects on May 5th. The new top of the list is –

  • #1 – A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
  • #2 – Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS, KA
  • #3 – Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat HS, NJ
  • #4 – Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
  • #5 – Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
  • #6 – Corey Ray, OF, Louisville
  • #17 – Nolan Jones, 3B, Holy Ghost Prep, PA (my alma mater)
  • #57 – Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma has dropped to #57 (probably his last week here)

Florida’s A.J. Puk gave up a 2-run HR to Nick Senzel as the Gators dropped a Saturday (May 7th) game to Tennessee, 5-2.

Player IP H R ER BB SO WP BK HBP IBB AB BF FO GO NP
A.J. Puk (L, 1-2) 3.1 3 2 2 6 6 0 1 1 0 13 20 2 2 91

When Baseball America updated their 100 Draft Prospects, They also published their Top 50 Draft Prospects Scouting Reports.  Most of it is behind the pay wall.  This portion about Puk was in in front of the pay wall.

“The top-ranked player in Florida’s top-ranked 2013 recruiting class, Puk has developed into a potential top overall pick in college. He broke out as a sophomore, helping Florida to the College World Series and then pitching for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team. A Preseason All-American, Puk was inconsistent at the start of the season and was briefly sidelined by back spasms. But he has since rounded into form and again looks the part of dominant starter. Puk throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90s and thanks to the downhill angle and the excellent extension his 6-foot-7 frame enables him to get, the pitch plays up even further. Puk’s slider and changeup both could use further refinement, but both have a chance to develop into average offerings. His slider sits in the mid-80s with horizontal sweeping action, though it can sometimes back up. Puk repeats his arm slot well and gets his torso over his front side consistently. When he stays balanced and online, he is very difficult for hitters to square up, even if they make contact. He throws a lot of strikes, particularly for someone of his size, and can locate his fastball to both sides of the plate. Puk’s overall skill set and body of work have positioned him to be the first college pitcher drafted, and he has the potential to become Florida’s first ever No. 1 overall pick.”

Riley Pint was reported to have hit 100 mph a couple weeks ago.  I’ve got nothing since.

The Kansas City Star recently printed a story on Riley Pint and Joey Wentz (BA’s #19), the other pitching phenom in the KC area.

Jason Groome pitched in a game Saturday, May 7th against Toms River North.  He was lifted in the fifth inning.  His fastball was clocked at 95 mph in the early innings.  Here’s a description from the Press of Atlantic City.

Oklahoma’s Alec Hansen recorded his first win of the season with 6.0 innings of 2-hit ball in a Sunday (May 8th) game.  He struck out nine.  Oklahoma crushed KSU, 12-0.

  • Hansen (1-4) – 6-0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 Balk, 21 BF, 82 Pitches/53 strikes

Kyle Lewis, Mercer: .432/.561/.801/.1.362

48 G, 176 AB, 56 R, 76 H, 10 D, 2 T, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 54 BB, 4 HBP, 37 K, 5 SF, 6/11 SB

Nick Senzel, Tennessee: .343/.446/.599/.1.045

47 G, 172 AB, 50 R, 59 H, 18 D, 1 T, 8 HR, 52 RBI, 32 BB, 4 HBP, 16 K, 5 SF, 21/22 SB

Corey Ray, Louisville: .315/.384/.590/.974

47 G, 200 AB, 44 R, 63 H, 14 D, 1 T, 13 HR, 51 RBI, 24 BB, 2 HBP, 30 K, 5 SF, 35/35 SB

 

143 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion, May 9th

  1. The smart move is to take a position player. If the top 3 guys are pitchers, and 2 of them are from HS, try to get your highest rated position player a bit underslot. The draft history overwhelmingly favors taking position players.

    1. Very good point. As long as the position player has the upside to become an all star caliber player and not joe shmo

      1. Lewis is looking more and more viable as 1.1 with a month to go. Is that enough time for someone else to emerge? I’d like to hear/read how much Phillies have been scouting him….

      2. What is Lewis projected as? An above average fielder in left field that might have 30 hr pop and a good OBP? I’d call that an all star.

  2. Actually would like to hear of players who may be available at #42, #78 and even #107. There could more than just the #1 pick becoming an impact player

    1. I am in love with Kiebloom at 42. Love his swing. but don’t know what the scouts think.

  3. This week’s results by Puk and Groome pains me. I am coming around to the plan that we take the best available player who will take $6 mil. And use the rest to draft high profile picks later. I really don’t see any separation. What a bummer. We finally get 1:1 and it is a down year.

    1. Just once, I wish a Phillies sports team had a high pick in a good year. Pens get Crosby/Malkin back to back, Nats get Harper/Strasburg. Flyers get Van Riemsdyke, Sixers get Turner, Okafor. Kills me

    2. Do you think Lewis would take 4 mil nobody ever was a 1.1 from a small confence. Groome k’s Rose twice and the 1st base man too, hid team made 3 error ‘ s too.I’m glad he was hit around that may bring his price down. Nick Senzel and Micky Moniak are also in play , Dakota Hudson if pitches – more 11 k game in Sec he talked about more.

  4. I actually agree for once with you. I am right now in a fog on who would you take with top pick that is worthy. Groome still has to be consider. I know people are talking about the kid at mercer.

    1. rocco….if yuo take a college OF bat at 1.1, more then likely, he will be up NLT 2018. Then a a few OF prospects in the system that will be major league ready and can be moved for pitching, ie Randolph, Cozens, Williams or Quinn. With Herrera currently the one fixture it appears now.
      Can’t keep them all.

      1. I think you can make a good case for Lewis because of the power and ability to be a good defending corner outfielder. Ray too could be interesting. Maybe not as much HR power, but could be a guy who bangs in 30/35 doubles, 4 triples and gets 15ish HRs, but also steals 20 maybe more bags with plus defense. Personally I’d take either of those two before I took Puk or Pint. I don’t like that Puk doesn’t have any potential plus secondary offerings and still struggles with control/command. To me that’s not worth it at 1.1 he’s just not good enough and he’s had the college experience already so how projection is even left for him? I’d still have Groome in the 1.1 discussion because of the possible multiple plus pitches and command/control at a very young age with good repeatable mechanics. As far as Senzel goes, can he play third well in the majors? If not what is he defensively a first basemen? For me it’s Lewis right now with Groome and Ray tied behind him.

  5. I’ve seen Corey Ray compared to Ray Lankford and I’ve seen Jermaine Dye mentioned as a likely outcome for Kyle Lewis. Now many may say that is not what you want from a #1 pick, but consider:

    Ray Lankford had a career 116 OPS and 38 WAR

    Jermaine Dye had 325 career HRs and 20 WAR

    Former #1 pick and Phillies Wall of Famer, Pat Burrell had 295 HRs and career 18 WAR.

  6. I feel a little bit like a proud father. After two weeks of berating everyone on here about this myth that had circulated about Groome being this cant miss #1 overall pick, everyone is finally coming around that there are other options that are as good or better than Groome.

    To v1again’s above point, I don’t think the Phillies necessarily need to take a guy that will take $6 million. Just take the best guy period. None of these guys are going to command more than $6.5 to $7 million bonus, which already gives you $2 million to $2.5 million underslot.

    The #1 pick slot bonus value is $9,015,000

    Dansby Swanson got $6.5 million from the Diamondbacks as the No. 1 pick in 2015, while Gerrit Cole set the all-time Draft bonus record with $8 million from the Pirates as the No. 1 choice in 2011.

    No one in this draft is getting Gerrit Cole money. They are more likely to fall into the Dansby Swanson range.

    If they give their #1 pick $7 million bonus (which I think is a little higher than they will actually end up giving), the Phillies will have $2 million to spend on overslot guys. That is a good amount. Just take the best guy….

      1. One rough inning and a half is changing my mind about a pick. His stuff was still there. The mistake he made was throwing a curveball (it was a HANGER) to someone he just blew away twice with fastballs. If he would have stuck with the fastball the kid prob wouldn’t have hit the double and then I believe he was trying to mix in a 2 seam bc the ball that was hit for a HR was at 88mph, in the “later” innings he was still above 91-93. Could be wrong. Again tho i’m not getting turned off by a bad inning and a half. I can get why rankings would change but scouts are smart enough to know things like that happen.

        1. Agreed Eric I think it’s a good thing his price might come down. GC on Monday in front of a bigger crowd . Nick Senzel did put a message out , plus that scout said there are ” millions”” of reasons why The Phillies wouldn’t draft Groome maybe now it’s less .

        2. I think it just goes to show how fluid the top of this draft is right now. You could make a case for four maybe five guys. It doesn’t turn me off him either.

      2. Actually he is a safer pick because he’s a college pitcher and by definition further along in his development than Groome, since Groome has much more development to go. ..and therefore more time to fail or get injured.

  7. Expect Riley Pint to be the new #1 when BA updates their next top 100. Last week those guys were gushing over Pint’s 100 mph FB, 95 mph Slider and 90 mph change-up.

  8. I have been all on board with Groome, and never thought much of Puk, and I am completely discouraged after these latest outings. I have followed what you have said Tommy, and it looks like you may be right and I may be wrong on Groome, but what is left is really disappointing. I wouldn’t be happy with a Lankford or a Dye ceiling for 1.1, and it looks more and more like a lousy year to be picking first. I know they need to take the best guy, but if the best guy isn’t that great, it isn’t worth much.

  9. take a college hitter 1.1 or Puk. Offer then underslot by a lot- $5 million bonus,. If they say no, draft 1.2 next season and hope the choices are better.

  10. It’s awful tough to go that route. I don’t care what the pick costs if he is a true #1. And, if he is not, who are you saving for? I haven’t heard anyone other than Quantrill who could be really good but is falling, and he won’t ever reach the 2d round. Puk isn’t even the best pitcher on his team.

    1. I think the thought here is that no one is really worth 1.1. I’m not sure its the worst strategy, though I don’t think I really like it

    2. No I am saying press reset and draft 1.2 next year- screws over the guy we draft this year which is unfortunate but the system is stupid and allows for this. So- they could draft Groome for example- offer $ 3 million a year signing bonus. He will say no and be forced to go to college.. We use the extra $ to draft at 2.1 and then draft 1.2 next year and hope that that player is more elite-

      only thing I do not like about this is screwing over the guy we draft. Otherwise, it is gaming things which the Astros sort of did a few years ago

      1. I am fairly certain that in order to get the pick next year that a team needs to offer a minimum % of slotted bonus $. I seem to recall that came up as part of the Aiken fiasco from a few years back. If you do not offer above X, you get no compensation. The X is well above 3MM for 1.1.

      2. You need to offer 40% of slot. And if you don’t sign the guy, the slot disappears. You have nothing extra to use later m

      3. There would be no “extra money” in that scenario. If the Phillies don’t sign their 1:1 selection, they lose the $9.3M slot bonus pool and can’t use that money on other players.

    1. Sorry it took so long, but I don’t have the time or resources to include the information for every prospect mentioned in the comments section by readers. However, the latest BA Top 100 provided an opportunity to include info on more than the 4 pitchers I’ve been covering to date.

  11. There may not be Strasburg or Harper type but I think we’re downplaying how valuable the guy being drafted #1 is going to be.

    This was pretty much the same scenario last year. Dansby Swanson wasn’t a sure fire #1 overall pick. But he was ranked by Baseball America as the #17 prospect in MLB coming into this season.

    I think we are looking at that level of player being added to the system. Its not like we’re adding a low level prospect like a carlos tocci or brock stassi. Whoever we add is going to likely the best prospect in our system next year.

    1. I think you are exactly correct. We are unlikely to get one of the true 1.1s, but we got excellent players in Nola and Crawford. We should be able to pick a 1.1 who is as good as those two and then with the money we save from the $9 million allocation pick another guy who is in the Nola/Crawford range of talent/probability. There is at least legit 1.3 to 1.5 talent in this draft and we have our pick of.those guys. This is going to be a good draft.

  12. Kyle Lewis is the guy I’m leaning towards now.

    Ive been leaning towards Puk but hes been so up and down. I wouldn’t be upset if he was the pick but his inconsistency worries me.

    Lewis probably has the most bust potential of the top guys but he also probably has the most elite tool with his in game power. And his improvement in plate discipline this year is fantastic to see. Add to that his performance in Cape Cod League last year and its just enough for me to take the plunge and risk the #1 pick on him.

    1. Tommy, I too have become more interested in Lewis. Do you have an idea of how each of his skills rate 20-80?

      1. I honestly don’t. Sorry.

        Another interesting development is that Nick Senzel is starting to show some in-game power that he had not in the past. The book on him was always that he had a really good hit tool and raw power and showed this power in BP, but never in games. He now has 8 HR in 177 AB this year, after only hitting 6 in 381 AB his first two years.

        Could he be in play if the Phillies think his power surge is for real?

        Delvin Perez is also interesting to me…supposedly maturity issues but maybe most talented player in draft….

        1. I like Lewis as well. I tend to agree with you that of the players mentioned to go 1.1 he’s probably got the most bust potential, but also probably the best ceiling as well. As long as he can be at least an average defender that’s a good pick. A guy with possibly real 60 in game power (maybe more) and at least a 50 hit tool probably 55 maybe 60 if the plate discipline changes are real and carry over. Ray is the other guy I’d strongly consider and think he’s got a nice profile.

      2. Kyle Lewis’ Scouting Report…Fueled By Sports

        Hitting………There wasn’t much talk about Lewis until his breakout performance at Cape Cod this summer and now the outfielder is all the talk. Lewis is exactly the thing major league teams look for, which is a tall and athletic outfielder that can hit for power and average. He has an effortless swing that generates excellent bat speed and he knows how to use all fields. Lewis doesn’t play against the best competition at Mercer, so he will most likely need a big season to keep his stock where its at.

        Fielding……….Lewis has tremendous speed and range in the outfield and should be a quality corner outfielder for years.

        Baserunning…..Lewis’ size and speed may remind some of Justin Upton or Jason Heyward, but don’t expect him to steal more than 20 bases in a season.

        Kyle Lewis’ Scouting Grades

        Contact: 4/5… Power: 4/5… Run: 4/5… Arm: 4/5… Field: 3/5
        Overall: 19/25… Potential: B+

        Professional Scouting Grades
        Tool and Grade/Projection:
        Contact 55/60
        Power 45/60
        Run 55/65
        Arm 55/60
        Field 45/50
        Overall 45/60
        ————————————————————-

        2016 MLB Draft – Kyle Lewis OF Profile…Jan 2016
        Scouting grades via MLB.com: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

      3. From MLB.com:

        Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

    2. I have no clue what the Phillies are thinking, but if they are shying away from a prep pitcher due to the risk factor, they may likewise want to avoid the guy with the biggest bust potential among the top college bats.

      I wouldn’t sleep on Delvin Perez. The kid reportedly may be the talented non-pitcher in the draft and plays the most valuable defensive position. We’ve heard about the reported maturity issues, but again, who knows what the Phillies are thinking?

  13. Ask BA: Does Mercer’s Schedule Hurt Kyle Lewis? http://bba.am/KoCkK1 via @BaseballAmerica. I am a little scared of this kid. He faded in cod league . and the competition he faces isn’t the greatest. But there have been others from his type of competition who have made it. Rather take the kid from Tennessee. but only a guess. if its not groome

    1. Lewis does look good and would rather shoot for upside at 1.1 but just hard to wrap the brain around drafting a kid from Mercer #1.
      As far as the level of competition, totally different kind of hitter, but the Cubs drafted a second baseman from there, Chesny Young, a couple years back. Kid hit .374 with more walks than K’s in college- he’s hit .323 in 200 minor league games including .336 this year in AA, with equal walks to K’s.

      1. The same Confence Lewis is in Heath Quinn tied him in HR’S at 17 3 short I rbi stat. He in Mlb top 100 and a lot cheaper.

        1. What does he play? Is he a good contact hitter? Can be a plus defender? Does he display good plate discipline?

    2. Roccom this is his confence stats you want to talk about bad pitching . One team hits .335 crazy numbers.

  14. Gimme any one of Lewis, Ray, Perez or Rutherford at 1:1 for 6 million or less. Then use the 3.5 million in savings to buy-out a few HS pitchers. The 2nd round always has a few top of the rotation types available (like Vince Velasquez, Jake Thompson, Tajuan Walker).

  15. I’ve had problems finding recent info on Riley Pint. I had this (but couldn’t find it last night) from Hudson Belinsky, one of the contributors to BA’s Top 100 Draft Prospects and Top 50 Draft Prospects Scouting Reports. It’s in response to a question on Twitter.

    Hudson Belinsky, “There are concerns about Pint’s delivery and there’s some effort to it. But if he throws strikes, it’s elite stuff.”
    In reply to YoSoy Joey D. @joeydivito, “@hudsonbelinsky Does the force with which Pint uses to create his tremendous velocity worry you? Is he destined to be a closer?”

  16. May be a bit early for trades, but if the Indians are not happy with Perez or Gimenez backing up Gomes, maybe Chooch is someone that would interest them for their quest to the top of the AL-Central. Indians have the Comp Bal pick Round B-72nd, maybe they would deal it for Chooch..

  17. The line on Puk in incorrect. That line is from a game five weeks ago. His stats from Saturday were 3.1 innings, 3 hits, 2 earned runs, 6 walks, and 6 strikeouts.

    1. Thanks, corrected it. Also corrected the text that stated he gave up 2 HR. He only gave up one, a 2-run HR to Tennessee’s Nick Senzel.

  18. IF we take a pitcher, I go Groome simply based on what I have heard and read. Puk should be a consistent arm at this point of the college season. His instability raises my concern. Groome may be off right now for whatever reason but his upside with proper development should bring him along within a few years – he IS 17 afterall. Again, the Phils organization in particular shouldn’t feel the urge to get an arm closer to the big league level (Puk?). They’ve the cash to go get a legitimate FA #1 starter if there isn’t one-to-be already here.

    Having said that, if they have doubts about Groome overall (i.e.immaturity), then Lewis is my man. Exactly one month from today we’ll know…..

  19. I’m not prepared to give up on Groome after one bad start. I still think (based solely on scouting reports I’ve read) he has the highest ceiling of any player in this draft, and I’d be very happy if he wound up being the pick.

    That said …

    I’m quickly warming to the idea of taking a college bat and using the potential savings on some tough signs (as has been proposed many times by many posters here). College position players have been about as sure a thing you can get at the top of recent drafts. Look at the college bats taken in the top 5 in the past 10 drafts:

    Dansby Swanson
    Alex Bregman
    Kyle Schwarber
    Kris Bryant
    Mike Zunino
    Christian Colon
    Dustin Ackley
    Tony Sanchez
    Pedro Alvarez
    Buster Posey
    Mike Moustakas
    Matt Wieters
    Evan Longoria

    Swanson and Bregman are destroying AA pitching. Putting them aside, you’ve got seven All Star-level players from the remaining eleven (and who knows what Ackley and Zunino could have been in a system not as horrible as the M’s). If you give up on the idea that 1:1 needs to be a generational player, you can have a strong assurance that a college bat like Lewis would move quickly and add some needed pop in RF in just a few seasons.

    1. Going back five more drafts:

      Alex Gordon
      Jeff Clement (Seattle again!)
      Ryan Zimmerman
      Ryan Braun
      Rickie Weeks
      Mark Teixeira (Phils took Floyd one pick before)

      It’s interesting to see how many pitchers and high school bats taken in the top five are flameouts as well. You hear it all the time, but seeing all these Coulda Been and Whoda? names sandwiched between All-Star, middle-of-the-order big leaguers is pretty amazing.

      (All right … I’m ordering my Kyle Lewis shirsey).

      1. You are exactly right on Seattle. Many of the good college bats that have failed recently, has gone through Seattle. They have a reputation for rushing their players through their system and not developing their talent.

      1. Yeah, I forgot that Harper did that Juco year in what would have been his Senior HS season. I guess I still see him as a HS player … by college bat, I’m thinking of players who have developed through college programs for several years and are in their early 20s. Not that I wouldn’t pick Harper in a New York minute were he available …

  20. I wouldn’t touch either of Puk or Hansen, which had been my thought even when they were anointed. I would go with Pint over Groome, although Wentz is interesting, and would be a pretty cool story to go with the other top pick in Philly drafts this year. I think the best option at this point is to take one of the big college bats and spread the rest of the money around on high upside high school guys as the draft goes on. I just don’t think it’s clear-cut enough to spend that much on one HS pitcher at 1.1

  21. People have been asking above would this guy take $3 million if the Phillies offered it to him as first pick, or would this guy take $4 million? Generally, if you draft a player underslot, you are still paying him more than what he would have got in his normal slot. For example someone above asked if Kyle would take $4 million if the Phillies drafted him first overall. That’s unlikely. Lewis is likely to be gone by the 4th or 5th pick (whose bonuses are $4,382,200 and $5,258,700) and then add in a premium for being the first pick and you’re probably talking around $6 million at least for Lewis. Which is still a huge savings of $3 million that you can spread around to overslot guys…

    For informational purposes, here are the top ten slot values for this draft:

    1. Phillies: $9,015,000
    2. Reds: $7,762,900
    3. Braves: $6,510,800
    4. Rockies: $5,258,700
    5. Brewers: $4,382,200
    6. Athletics: $4,069,200
    7. Marlins: $3,756,300
    8. Padres: $3,630,900
    9. Tigers: $3,505,800
    10. White Sox: $3,380,600

    And here are the slot values for Phillies picks:

    1. Phillies: $9,015,000
    42. Phillies: $1,536,200
    78. Phillies: $813,500
    107. Phillies: $557,600
    137. Phillies: $417,500
    167. Phillies: $312,700
    197. Phillies: $234,000
    227. Phillies: $184,800
    257. Phillies: $172,600
    287. Phillies: $161,300

    1. You have to go 40% of the slot I think. You could low ball a college pitcher is one shoots up. 4.5 is 40% of 9 mil so may be 5 mil then hit 2.1 hard.

    1. I would be shocked at Rutherford or Moniak being drafted over the college hitters. That would be interesting.

  22. I’m starting to lean toward college bat for 1.1. So far the only one that really interests me is Kyle Lewis, but he has a very noisy swing – there’s a ton of movement.

  23. I’m been saying this for the week Gene Schall was at Nalon James games. The Dodgers have been in on James most mock Drafts, with the exception of BA new one. Charlie if he is in socal he’s having a look at the Hs bats.

  24. Jason Stark Twitter – Other teams say the Phillies appear to be backing off A.J. Puk at No. 1 in the draft & moving toward Mercer CF Kyle Lewis.

    Now that’s what I’m talking about!

    1. He also told Mike Missanelli on 97.5 that he’s convinced the Phils won’t take Groome. I can picture Kyle Lewis in right field in ’18 alongside El Torito in cf and Junior Williams in lf.

        1. Randolph won’t be up at least until ’19. Cozens?? He’s playing well now and that’s good. Quinn has to put together a sustained stretch or whole season that he’ll be something. Just projecting based on common thought now. Besides there will be interesting decisions to be made by that time. Trade possibilities could be plentiful.

      1. 2018 more like 2020 he’ll start in lakewood next yr.Cozen, Herrera, Willams, Pujols, Quinn , Altherr, Goeddel, C, Ortiz below him maybe . Plus you mite have Harper on the Horizon . All these players have seen way better pitching and are older Lewis is only 20 I tbink.. The Phillies might go for the cheapest and easiest to sign. Nobody has ever been 1,1 from a small confence. Plus Stark said PUK last week.

        1. Last year Brendan Rodgers and Dillon Tate were consensus #1 and #2, two months before the draft. Neither one was selected in the top 2.

        2. That’s a plus for Lewis also…..doesn’t turn 21 until July.
          There is that thought…and BP’s Rany Jazaryli did a study on it…. that younger players make better prospects in the long run.

          1. Then we should go Groome he’s 16, lol . 2 OF in 2 yrs we traded for a top 1 and signed 2 LA kids. Our 2nd rd Cozens is really hitting . That’s not including Herrera , Altherr, Goeddel . Maybe there fatten Lewis up to about 225 and he play first.

      1. I don’t know why it would be a ploy. I don’t really understand how a college pitcher with bad command, who can’t get through 6 innings, could be in consideration for the top pick.

  25. According to Jim Salisbury, the Phillies don’t know yet who they are going to pick at 1.1. They like Lewis and Senzel as college bats. However, in a perfect world, they would like to take a pitcher who could team with Nola and Velasquez. They are still considering Puk and Groome. As far as Puk’s season so far, they’re more interested in his projection.

    1. Hinkie…he seems to spot on. Projection I guess is the cognitive word.
      Also in the video, did not realize the high left leg kick Kyle Lewis has in his load. Against lesser competitive pitching that works well with timing
      Will be fun tio watch him vs high velo guys in the college WS next month…..if Mercer makes it.

    2. About Puk’s projection … (from Perfect Game draft chat today) …

      Who are your personal top 5 college pitchers in terms of projection?

      Brian Sakowski:
      Yeesh that’s a good question. Puk is #1, despite being 6’7″ and up to 98-99, he might have more in there still.

  26. They would also have to project Groome going forward . PUK is muck easier once every 4 starts his control will blow up.he needs 2 more off speed pitches and how to hold the runners on. NICK Senzel took him deep and stole 2nd and 3rd off him,Senzel also walked . Cowe the leadoff man for SC doubled of Puk then walked. There’s alot of Senzel and Cowe who are not intimidated of a 98 mph FB in MLB . He going to have to learn how to pitch and and get better of speed pitchers. Groome young and all ready everything needed but ings and time.

  27. Nick Senzel has some serious baseball talent. He stole 2nd and 3rd off of Puk without a throw. Cape Cod league he was voted MVP and best Prospect.He said he just put a nice easy swing on Puk FB and let the pitch do the work.

  28. Fascinating Draft Big Board from KLaw: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2016&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_DraftBigBoard1.0

    Top 5 are:
    1. Ray
    2. Groome
    3. Perez
    4. Moniak
    5. Puk

    A few writeups:
    Ray:
    Right now, if I had the top pick, I think I’d go with Ray, the best all-around college position player who is at worst a solid everyday left fielder with the upside of a Ray Lankford (whose name I’ve heard from a couple of scouts over the past year as a comp for Ray). He can hit; he can run; he has some power. Although center field, where he plays part of the time for Louisville, is a pipe dream, he could develop into a capable left fielder. I think he goes among the top three picks.

    Groome:
    Reports of Groome’s demise from local media in south Jersey are greatly exaggerated; you’re still looking at a tall, athletic lefty with a good delivery and a grade-70 (on the 20 to 80 scouting scale) breaking ball. I think Groome goes among the top four picks.

    Puk:
    Puk returned after missing most of two starts because of back spasms, had two good starts, then walked six batters this past weekend against Tennessee. He could go 1-1, but I think that’s a reach considering that his results at Florida have never matched his stuff — and his stuff isn’t so dominant that he should be the first overall pick anyway. That said, he’s clearly the best college starting pitcher prospect in the draft, so he won’t slide far.

      1. Law routinely has said he doesn’t think the Phils will take a HS pitcher 1:1. So I think both because this is a big board too.

    1. If I was making the pick, I would use the rationale of HS pitchers being too risky to negotiate a great deal with Groome. But I am fine with paying Ray below slot too and using money later. I do buy the argument that one thing you can not afford to do is bust on this pick.

      1. Now Jim Salisbury says the two positional players he has heard about are Lewis and Senzel. Ray’s name was not mentioned.
        And naturally the two LHPs…GaP

      2. The one thing that bothers me about taking Ray is him probably not staying in center and having to move to left. It’s why I’d probably be more comfortable taking Lewis who I see as a better power hitter and equal defender (i think the projection is he would play RF).

  29. What do you guys think the minimum offer without low balling too much would be for Ray or Lewis. Obviously an offer that they would accept.

  30. I believe its 40% percent of slot. which if my math is right under 3.6 million is lowest. so 4 million would be my offer to lewis. If he declines use the rest for hs kids. And get a top pick next year if he doesn’t sign. This kid is no sure thing for a top pick.

    1. He will absolutely not accept $4 million if he’s the 1:1 pick

      And if he doesn’t sign, the Phillies lose that $9 million slot value. So they have nothing to spread around to high school kids.

      Terrible plan all around roccom

      1. So if you offer him 40 percent and he doesn’t sign. You lose all the kids you signed after in the draft. That makes no sense. So what your saying I sign my second round choice for 5 million. third for 3 I lose those picks.

        1. Yes. If you don’t come to terms with the first round pick you no longer have that 9 million slot value in your total pool. It’s exactly what happened to the Astros when they didn’t sign their number one pick and they couldn’t afford the other players they picked overslot.

  31. Not much has been said about Delvin Perez.

    I like players with high upsides, and no position player has a higher upside than Perez.

    Perez could be the 1.1 pick. Plays short very well, potential for both average and power at the plate, great speed, 6’3″, and 17-years old.

      1. Doesn’t have anywhere near the power or hit tools but he’s an advanced defender. Maybe a move to 2B with JPC @ SS?

      2. He doesn’t have near the power potwntial as Correa when he was coming out or the hit tool. There are questions about his approach at the plate.

    1. I’ve said it before – don’t sleep on Delvin Perez at 1:1. Could happen, especially since he is arguably the most talented position player in the draft and almost no one is talking about him at 1:1.

  32. Romus if I don’t sign my first round pick I lose all the slot money and cant sign any one. Even though I offered my first round pick the 40 percent?? help me here

    1. rocco……is this what you are talking about in regards to the signing bonus pool (SBP)?……….iI a team fails to sign a player selected in the first ten rounds (including supp draft picks), the value of that slot is deducted from the club’s SBP.
      Phillies this year is $13.4M…also there is no bonus value assigned to draft slots after the 10th round, but if a club pays a signing bonus in excess of $100,000 to a player selected in the 11th round or later all to the 40th round or to a player eligible for selection who was not drafted, the amount of that bonus in excess of $100,000 is deducted from the club’s SBP.

  33. Lol Hinkle you beat to lol how can BA put another mock before Puk pitches again.Groome too, I like what it says about the socal Bats . Moniak mite make a deal and Ratherford too. Puk on tomorrow at 4 on espn 2 Groome game might be on local tv.

  34. Another chance for AJ Puk to make a good impression on the Phillies’ FO this afternoon. He pitches against Vanderbilt at 4:00 on ESPN 2. Vandy features Bryan Reynolds, a certain 1st round pick next month and Jeren Kendall (might be the 1.1 pick next year).

    1. Puk’s line today vs Vandy:
      IP6..0 H3 R1 ER1 BB2 K11 HR1
      Whiff ratio is still commendable.

        1. Well 1/3 of the 100 were part of the 11 Ks.
          Strike-out pitchers, with high velo, normally run high pitch counts.

        2. Of the 11Ks….he threw a minimum of 56 pitches, with multiple full-counts.
          His command and control still is weak..

          1. The weak command and control is a pretty huge issue when picking this high. I’d just have a real hard time taking him at pick 1 over Groome who has a better feel for control/command and better secondary stuff, Lewis who could be a power hitting corner OF with good contact skills/plate discipline/average or so defense, Pint who has the best and hightest ceiling of anyone in the draft, or the 3B from Tennessee. Even the pitcher from Mississippi State is making a push.

            1. I have so interesting numbers about Lewis I’ll put them monday. Dakota Hudson is his name 2 great starts , 2 pitches rated 65 .

  35. His control and Command are avg at best Vandy bats are weak as a team. He runs so many high counts you could see it his last ing 100 pitches he was done.even know he throws 100 it seems to take its tool on him.

  36. I watched Puk today. Fastball 94-97, but no movement. Slider was hit and miss. Some times there wasn’t enough bite on it. Once in a while, he would unleash a nasty late breaking slider and he reminded me of Steve Carlton. So, the pitch has the potential to be plus. He just needs to be consistent. His change up is not very good. He runs up high pitch counts not just because he K”s lots of batters, but because batters foul off tons of his pitches. A better change up and a more consistent slider would probably minimize the foul balls. The other thing about Puk is his move to first is bad and he works excruciatingly slow with men on base. All in all, Puk has some tools to work with. However, I don’t think there’s any way he makes it to MLB nearly as fast as guys like Aaron Nola and Carlos Rodon.

    1. Ty Hinkle plus he falls to the 3rd so much that a line drive or hard grounder would hit him .

    1. Nice to see st Jude and Karly get the money at least Paul Murphy the area scout should be there for the Phillies .

  37. Alec Hansen’s slide down draft boards continues. He got the start against Okla St. Saturday. He lasted only 2.1 innings. He allowed 5 ER on 6 H and 2 BB. He K’d 3.

  38. Matt Klentak on draft preperations …

    Q. How’s the draft prep going?

    A. It’s going. We’re going to have meetings this coming week with all of our area scouts flying in to present their territory. Then we’ll break again, go get some more looks at some of the players, then we’ll come together again in 10 days or so leading up to the draft. As far as the first pick is concerned, we’ve started to narrow our focus a little bit down to a more manageable number of players. But still have almost a month to go and plan to use every bit of it before we make our final decision.

    1. One thing that is continually discussed about with Puk is his poor command and control, which among other things leads to high pitch counts and early exits.
      But taking a quick look at Clayton Kershaw’s first three years in pro ball at ages 18-19 and 20, and also AJ Puk’s first three years in college ball here is the BB/SO metrics as of 15 May2016. Both tall pitchers , Puk at 6’7″, and sometimes that is a difficult assignment to get their mechanics flowing consistently at a young age.
      Kershaw- 220 IPed…91BBs…3.7-BB/9…11.3 –K/9.
      Puk – 175 IPed…80BBs….4.1-BB/9…..11.8-K/9.
      Majority of all the hitters Puk faced at 18 and 19 were older collegian players.
      At 20/( turned 21 three weeks ago)most hitters Puk faces are now his age or younger in the SEC
      Kershaw, on the other hand at 20, in AA faced a majority of older and experienced hitters.
      The more I hear about whoever the Phillies select, a lot is geared on projectability.
      It will be an interesting decision for Klentak and Co.

      1. Yeah I read the same thing. Its project ability. I have looked at a lot of prospect tape. Lewis like the scouts say has a ton of movement in his swing. He scares me for a top pick. saw some game film on him too. Pint can throw a 100 miles a hour, but I don’t think he has a clue where its going. This is a very tough call. I Just hope they don’t pick a jeff Jackson. I really don’t know what I would do no one stands out. like a lot of other years. My hope is they go after some high talented latin kids. spend a ton in that market if the talent is there.

        1. rocco…..three years ago the Reds took a very talented OFer from a small conference college as their first round pick (27th) , Phil Ervin from Samford (Ohio Valley Conference), similar to Mercer’s level of comp in the Southern Conference….and Kyle Lewis’ team He still cannot get it together. So there will be doubt and risks for any 1.1 selection.

    1. My point…..tall young lefties have command and control issues the majority of the time. Rarely does one ever have that skill at 18, 19 or 20 years old.

  39. His hole delivery has to be redone he’ll never make 150 ings . He’s doesn’t have the power off pitches either. He might him a while to get everything straight . Plus kids that hard some times have to get TJ. There goes 2 yrs down the drain, there talk Moniak might cut a deal.S D trying to get a deal with quintana done.

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