Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #17

Tyler Goeddel was selected the Readers’ Poll 16th prospect.  He received 121 of 408 votes (30%).  He finished 8 votes ahead of Adonis Medina.

Goeddel was selected out of high school by Tampa with the 41st pick of the first round, a Comp A pick, of the 2011 First Year Player Draft.  He signed on August 15th of that summer.  He began his pro career in full season A ball at Bowling Green of the Midwest League as a 19-year old, the equivalent of Lakewood.

Goeddel made incremental increases each season.  He posted a .279/.350/.433 in 2015.  He hit a career high 12 home runs.  In 533 plate appearances, he struck out 98 times (18.4%) and walked 48 times (9%).

He was left unprotected prior to the 2015 Rule 5 Draft and was selected by the Phillies with the first pick.

Top 30 so far:

  1. Crawford
  2. N. Williams
  3. Thompson
  4. Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Quinn
  7. Alfaro
  8. Kilome
  9. Knapp
  10. Eflin
  11. Hoskins
  12. Kingery
  13. Pinto
  14. Cozens
  15. Tocci
  16. Goeddel

The next group added to the poll will come from among the following e-mail requests, write-ins, and my discretion.  They are –

  1. Fanti, Martin, and Moore based on recurrent write-in votes
  2. Encarnacion, Tobias, Rios, Gonzalez, Pujols, Arano, and Leiter based on e-mail requests
  3. Paulino, Laird, DeNato, Joaquin, Rivero, Valentin,  Bossart, and L. Williams based on performance
  4. Pullin, Perkins, Falter, Forsythe, Luis, Mora, Munoz, Pickett, Tasin, Therrien, Lino, Hockenberry, and Stassi just because
  5. Pointer for a friend
  6. Walding to reward Sandy-Oh’s persistence.

The next 5 will likely come from among those in bold font.  Pujols will probably make the cut, but I personally don’t think he is among the top 5 of those I’m considering.

Next up is your selection for #17.

47 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #17

  1. I didn’t recognize the guy in the picture so I knew before I moved down to the article it was one of our very new guys. I can see Goeddel and Medina in these slots but I continue to vote for Lively. I guess it’s my little stubborn streak.

    1. When voting in this range, its easy to make arguments for virtually anyone. I like Lively, too, and when we vote for “break-out candidate,” he’ll be on my shortlist.

      Meanwhile, I’m sticking with Adonis Medina…and not just because I like his name.

      Thomas Eshelman, Nick Pivetta, Alec Asher and of course Darnell Sweeney are the others than make sense to me here.

  2. I guess the left-handed pitching has dropped off the cliff this year. By the 16th pick in last year’s list, we had 4 lefties: (Biddle, Windle, Mecias and Imhof). Mecias is out of baseball (injured). Biddle could be on his way out (injured and maybe a little mental). Windle’s getting votes but mostly from family and friends… I believe. Imhof’s been mentioned a few times but it just doesn’t feel like we’re reached the correct slot for him yet.

    Oberholtzer doesn’t have any options left so he’ll make the team in Philly unless his arm falls off. But he’s not eligible for our poll. Morgan still has a shot at having a slot in the rotation in Philly. If not, he’ll be starting at AAA, awaiting the phone call. Again not eligible for our poll.

    1. Biddle is still a top 50 prospect to me. He progressed to AAA despite physical ailments and is still young enough. Lots of pitchers return from TJ surgery.

      1. As a long shot, Biddle could be pitching in mid-to-late August..he will then be 10 months out from surgery. But the Phillies will probably not rush him and wait a few months more until instructs. Nevertheless, he probably will not be protected on the 40 and exposed to the Rule 5, unless he still can still be placed on the 60 day DL..

        1. I’m not expecting on anything at all this year from Biddle. We’ll have to wait until 2017, I think. I don’t think he will need protecting for 2 more years.

  3. Do we have any scouting reports or high/low comps on Goeddell, people? My high comp: Jayson Werth. PLEASE ASSIST THE GREAT SALAMI!

    1. Every time I look for comps and I look at minor league numbers of good MLB players, I am reminded what a massive jump it is from AAA to the majors. How every flag in the minors usually gets exasperated in the majors.

      IMO the Werth comp is not realistic. Jason Werth had a K/BB rate in the minors of nearly 1:1. Interestingly, he showed little power in the minors. He developed power late (as most do). But his amazing eye has always been there.

      Goeddel has a k/BB rate of nearly 2:1. Which is close to Stubbs, who has a career .244 BA and .313 OB%. Sorry to say, but that might be Tyler’s realistic comp.

      1. v1…thank you…did not want to hurt the Great Salami Guy’s feeling on Stubbs being the high or realistic comp.

  4. Medina, for reasons stated in previous threads.

    From what’s remaining, I have Aaron Brown, Jhaylin Ortiz, Eshelman and Canelo grouped together, although I’m not sure what order I would put them in (probably Ortiz, Eshelman, Canelo and Brown). Ortiz being ranked so high would be based largely on signing bonus and that very loud power tool, although I’m also very encouraged by Jim’s reports of seeing him in instructs.

    1. If the Phillies offered both in trade to another random team, who do you believe would get more value? Aaron Brown or Jhailyn Ortiz?

      1. Probably Brown. He’s way more versatile defensively (can play all three OF positions) has a cannon for an arm and good raw power. The approach and hit tool are huge red flags and will need to improve, but the Phils knew that when they drafted him. However, he did double his BB rate to a tick over 6 percent in CLW, and his K rate isn’t outrageous (20 percent). He could be Steve Susdorf, or he could be a guy who figures it out and becomes a 4th OF or even an average regular.

        Ortiz needs to a.) unlock the raw power, b.) show he can consistently square up hittable pitches and lay off slop, and c.) be athletic enough to handle LF. If he can do this, his upside is an All Star. But the gulf is massive.

        1. Mike Honcho please sober up then come back and read your comment about Aaron Brown having more trade value than Jhailyn Ortiz. I’m sure you’ll chuckle at what you wrote…

          1. LOL … perhaps you’re right. I guess it depends on the situation. It’s the classic scratcher vs. powerball scenario: Brown is far more likely to find his way to a big league roster at this point and has some intriguing tools, while Ortiz is an extreme risk with one monster tool. As a fan, I’d be far more upset about losing Ortiz than Brown (just like I’d prefer a free powerball ticket to a scratcher). I’d imagine there are GMs out there who might take Brown’s skillset plus proximity over Ortiz, however.

            I’ll reconsider the question after I’ve slept this off … 🙂

  5. Medina here, beginning a run of 4 or 5 Pitching prospects. Groome at 1.1 in June will ease the lefthanded burden a bit in future starting Pitching prospects.

    1. I was just going to suggest that Jim add Groome to the poll. He probably has a better chance of playing in Philadelphia than many on the list. [My facetiousness is borne of excitement]

  6. I have been voting for Canelo since 11. I understand how people don’t have him that high, but I don’t get how he’s going to end up in the 20s.

    There were four players that I had loosely grouped together in the rankings who had between 260-290 PAs in Lakewood – Canelo, Tocci, Hoskins, Kingery, Canelo was the best of the group there. You can make a good case that he should be ranked higher than all 3 plus Cozens. He’s a plus defender, showed enough power to collect 40 XBHs last year, and has a decent command of the strike zone.

    1. Canelo isn’t a bad choice at #11. When I put my list together, I noticed how bunched together #11-27 were in my mind. I don’t have much of an argument, one way or another in this group. They’ve never had this many “decent” prospects. It usually falls off around 12-13.

    2. 8 HR for a potential ++ defensive wizard at SS as a 20 year-old in A-ball, 2 years under his league average age. Baseball America ranked him 14th best prospect in the SAL, 6 spots ahead of Hoskins. He showed he can hit, and hit with power in full-season leagues. He can run (17 SB). Scouting reports say he can field and throw better than average. His drawback is his size, but for a SS who is still growing that’s not a problem.

      I rank him ahead of Kingery. The comparison reminds me of Galvis versus Hernandez a few years back, except unlike Galvis, Canelo showed power at a young age, and unlike Hernandez at 20, Kingery has yet to yet to hit well in pro ball so now the choice of the SS over the 2b-man seems easy to me, but I understand the disadvantage that Kingery has coming from college ball.

      1. Agree with you, Canelo has a lot of potential to be a special player. He may have to move over to 2nd base at some point if he stays in the org.which should not be a big problem for him.
        BTW….ranking him 6 slots ahead of Hoskins in the BA top 20 League prospects is not really a big deal…..of all the top 20 league prospects…right=handed batting first baseman were only ranked 2 times by BA.
        Ten leagues rated. First basemen ranked were 12 out of the 200 slotted.
        Nine hit left handed , one-switch-hits, two hit right handed (Rhys Hoskins and Trey Mancini)
        1. Carlos Munoz-APP-20th
        2. Josh Naylor-GCL-14th
        3. Chris Shaw-NRWT-8th
        4. AJ Reed-CAL-3rd
        5. Cody Bellinger-CAL-13th
        6. Jake Bauers-FSL-10th
        7. Dominic Smith-FSL-14th
        8. Ryan O’Hearn-SAL-19th
        9. Rhys Hoskins-SAL-20th-R-R****
        10.Josh Bell-EL-20th-switch
        11.Trey Mancini-EL-18th-R-R****
        12. Greg Bird-EL-16th

  7. Anon, I agree. I had Pivetta here and Medina right before him at 16, Canelo, Ortiz, Grullon, but I’m sure the stat guys here could convince me to switch the order. I’m not really hung up on being right.

  8. Glad to see that Brock Stassi will be added to the mix. If he has a year in AAA that he had in AA, he could move to top of the class. Let’s hope he does.

    1. If Howard should get injured this year for any length of time, the Phillies may give Stassi a cordial ‘cup of coffee’ into the majors for prosperity. As a good soldier he would deserve that gesture. However, not sure it will turn out to be a Wally Pip event.

  9. Moore and Lino and Stassi should have been in the poll from day 1. Many of the players in poll will not even make it to AAA.

    1. Hey Wayne, Not sure about “many” but the odds are that some will never make it to AAA, you are correct. However, odds are that Moore and Lino will never be anything more than a backup catcher. I think the poll puts some emphasis on upside, at least that is how I am voting. Biddle is a great example of this. Again, I’m not a big stats guy when it comes to baseball, I just enjoy the game, and I don’t have the time to get details. Fact is he has been a top prospect since he was drafted. Being a 1 in the draft (i.e.Appel) people looked at his potential. Whether he or Appel ever get to the bigs for any period of time is presumed but not guaranteed.

      With Moore and Lino’s ceiling being a 2nd or 4th string org catcher….that’s probably why they have not been added, but if you send a note to Jim he is good at adding or giving reasons why he is not adding a player.

      Stassi is a conundrum. That I could give reasons why he is not in many peoples top 30’s but I’ll leave that alone if others want to comment for the umpteenth time.

    2. Thank you for mentioning Lino. He’s always intrigued me. He made it to AAA at 22, not easy for anyone, particularly a catcher. He has some defensive tools, a little power, a pretty good eye. He’s always been young for his level, which is a good sign thar he has some potential. The older pitchers he’s been facing have been a bit better than himself so far, but I’d give him a few years before writing him off.

  10. Medina again.

    As for the group of players to potentially be added to the poll: there are four guys who made my list, some I considered and some who had no shot. Valentin is my highest ranked but I’m not totally sure where to put him. I was impressed with what he did in Clearwater despite missing time and not having much experience at that level. He wasn’t as impressive in winter ball though.

  11. Looks like Medina will run away with the #18 (he’s #19 in my list). While most of us raved about Medina’s (19yo, 6’1″, 185lbs) upside, it was actually Paulino (20 yo, 6’1″, 170 lbs) who’s the best pitcher in GCL (based on stats).

    Anybody can share any scouting reports regarding Paulino?

    Felix Paulino 5 4 2.34 50.0 0.90 8.28 0.92 9.20
    Adonis Medina 3 2 2.98 45.1 2.38 6.95 1.19 2.92

    1. Paulino was 90-94 by the end of the year, he will flash some feel for secondary pitches, but neither is consistent, I have heard fringy to average on both the slider and changeup, also throws a cutter in the 88-89 range. He has more present command than Medina, but without the secondary pitches he is in the same wait and see bucket as Ranger Suarez (who ticked up to 90-91 this year)

      1. @Matt – thanks! Do you consider him as “prospects to watch in 2016” in the line as Alexis Rivero and Juan Luis?

        A 90-94 FB and 88-89 Cutter for a 20 yo with projection left has the makings of a plus pitch. Like what you said, the development of secondary pitches will determine his place in the prospects ranks.

    2. Paulino was the GCL pitcher of the yr. Some of the scouting I heard very Athletic with lose arm FB tops out at 95 Slider has above avg sink at times. Avg CU his k/9 and b/ 9 was outstanding yr . Medina had 3 plus pitches so he’s ahead. Paulino is 6 “1” 170 if he can put on about 20 pds and add a 3 pitch he’d easy be in the 15. Plus like Medina he’s only 18 . I only seen 3 ings but his delivery looks good .

  12. Looks like Medina is winning in a blowout.

    I’m surprised that neither Encarnacion nor Jose Pujols is on the ballot at this point, I think both of them are players with exciting power, although admittedly far away. I’d personally slot both of them around the #20 range, maybe a tad higher or lower, but definitely I think they should be in the conversation–certainly if guys like Leibrandt, Asher and Imhof are.

  13. Looks like this will be my last vote for Medina which is good.

    Everyone should keep in mind that rating prospects is about what is their ceiling combined with what is the likelihood of them reaching it. A middle reliever or a utility infielder in the majors is not a big time prospect. Ortiz definitely has a very high ceiling in theory but we’re just basing in the money paid at this point. Aaron Brown will have a big year ahead. He will have to improve his results this year or risk being passed by other prospects and risk falling back to journeyman status. As for Pujols and Encarnacion, they both have very high ceilings but I think we all agree that their chances of hitting that ceiling is growing smaller.

    1. To my point, while guys like Asher and Leibrandt are more likely to reach their ceilings, those ceilings are not high enough to be ranked high here.

  14. looks like medina got this easily. ‘d like to see eschelman, lively, and pivetta start to get some more support

  15. Woo, Medina, walking down the street, ten times a week, I meant it, I said it, I stole my mama’s credit. I’m cool, I’m hot, sock me in the stomach three more times.

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