Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #16

Carlos Tocci was selected the Readers’ Poll 15th prospect.  He received 145 of 418 votes (35%).  Tyler Goeddel finished second with 93 votes (22%).

Tocci was signed as an international free agent on August 23, 2011.  He may be the most divisive prospect in the organization.  There seems to be little middle ground.  He is viewed as either overrated or underrated.

Tocci has given up at least 3 years to the average age at every level except for the start of the 2015 season at Lakewood where he was only 2.5 years younger than league average. His supporters point to the age disparity and find his production and improvement encouraging each year.  His detractors are quick to point out his lack luster stats and absence of power.

After a season in the GCL and 2 seasons in Lakewood, Tocci put up some good numbers in his third attempt at Lakewood in 2015 – .321/.387/.423, 20 BB and 31 K in 261 plate appearances, and 14 SB in 16 attempts.  At mid-season, he was promoted to Clearwater and put up .258/.296/.313, 12 BB and 52 K in 298 plate appearances, and 3 SB in 12 attempts.  His line was greatly affected by an alarming August  – .155/.165/.161 in 98 plate appearances.  An easy explanation would be that he tired during the long season.  But, this was his third season of full season ball.  I have another explanation.  I noticed that outfield defenses were playing him shallower, taking away some of the balls that use to drop in front of them earlier in the season.

Tocci took part in a program to put on muscle and weight during the 2015 off season in Clearwater.  He took part in a similar program this season.  Here are a couple shots of him during 2015 spring training.

Tocci walkingTocci cage

Top 30 so far:

  1. Crawford
  2. N. Williams
  3. Thompson
  4. Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Quinn
  7. Alfaro
  8. Kilome
  9. Knapp
  10. Eflin
  11. Hoskins
  12. Kingery
  13. Pinto
  14. Cozens
  15. Tocci

Next up is your selection for #16.

86 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #16

    1. I like Ortiz’s upside too but we really havent seen him so theres too much of a mystery. so for me its too early. I like goeddel because i think he has a good chance at putting up victorino type numbers and he’ll get plenty of chances to do it in the majors this year

      1. Ya I like his upside as well of Ortiz. At this point most of these guys on my top 30 are either upside in the front end of the farm …., or in the backend with an opportunity to make or break like Goeddel. We will know by the middle of the season if guys like Sweeny and Goeddel are trending up or down (or gone). Ortiz still has a couple years to show something (like Pujols and Encarnacion for the last couple years).

    1. Agreed. For a board that generally seems obsessed with upside, regardless of the probability that it is achieved, Medina isn’t getting much love. He has boatloads of potential.

            1. I’m guessing Wsport. Medina is my choice here 9and has been for a few already). This guy has serious upside.

        1. Yordano Ventura is only 5’11” and 180 LBS, Lincecum was only 5’11” and 175 LBS

          Not ideal for longevity and durability I agree but also not the end all be all for a starter to have success in the league.

      1. Your comment made me go back and look at Medina’s scouting reports…and you both are right, they look great. He slipped through the cracks for me. Probably because of his small sample size of game action and his lack of hype.

        but if he truly shows three plus pitches, he is a candidate for biggest rise in next year’s rankings. very exciting to have a prospect of that quality down this far in the list. shows amazing depth of the system.

        1. agree with v1. it’s not that Medina flew under the radar (he’s my #19 prospect), it’s mainly due to SSS of game action and lack of hype like v1.

          I can see Medina starting with the Crosscutters and he will be my high riser in 2016 if he continues his progression (probably an easy Top 10). I ranked Pinto at #11 so Medina’s size means little to me.

          1. KuKO…Medina’s bulk size is really not that bad …and just turned 19 last month, so he still could get to well over 200 pounds before he turns 21-years old, and IMO 6’1″ is not a detractor.

            1. @Romus – he does look bigger than his size. Hopefully, he starts in WIL (or WIL moves to Camden) so that I can see him in person (I wouldn’t mind the trek).

            2. Okay. At this point, remaining prospects all have significant question marks, so I’ll go with potential on this one — Medina

  1. Medina for me. I have him at 12 actually. I think quite a few players fit in this range Cordero, Ramos, Arano and I might be the only guy on this board that has Luis Encarnacion in the top 20.

    1. DMAR – I have Encarnacion at #32, which says something about the depth of the farm system. I think 14 of the voted Top 15 prospects (Cozens is the exception) are easy Top 20 — so if you consider Medina, Canelo, Tirado, Pivetta, Grullon, Cordero and some higher end prospects in A+/AA and prospect-eligible in the 40-man roster, this will push Encarnacion down in the list.

      But I do hope that Encarnacion will break out in 2016. I think the Power is legit and the Hit tool can be at least be average to above average.

  2. I am in on Medina now. Very interesting guy. I think Canelo is next but I am wavering towards Goeddel, who I think I ding for being a Rule 5 less than any of our previous Rule 5 guys – almost zero chance he doesn’t stick, IMO. What I do ding him for is the fact that I always have to look how to spell his last name. It’s akin to a long-passed character issue, for me. Like almost as bad as choking your coach in high school.

    1. I wanted to choke my HS coach. Apparently he didn’t think my FB was a Plus pitch so he made me throw curve ball after curve ball.

      1. Same here except my curve ball was a straighter slower version of my fastball. It was best when there was guy on 2nd base. We went to straight signs and guys were looking for the break. Was effective for one round through the lineup.

    2. Yeah, Medina here, based mostly on the positive word-of-mouth from the scouting/prospect watching community.

  3. I voted for Grullon here since he’s next in my list. I think Tocci-Grullon-Medina ranking in this range (Top 15 to 20) is justifiable because of the “risks” profile. Tocci and Grullon gets some extra points for playing above average defense at premium positions (CF and C) giving them higher floor despite of the risk.

    Most interesting part of the poll so far is the higher ranking of Hoskins (I have him #14) and Cozens (I have him #23). I guess people value POWER the most in all the tools.

    1. It is nice for corner OFers and 1st baseman do have a little more then the average share of power as part of their hit tool

      1. @romus – where you rank Cozens and what’s your take on him?? Matt Winks had Cozens in the 30s.

        I’m still 50-50 about him and I think he’s better suited to play for the Eagles than the Phillies.

        It’s about time to see the break out, I will be wathing him close in REA.

        1. Hey Kurdt, Just curious wouldn’t .350 avg at AA and .282 at hi A be a pretty good year. I mean how many players who had 400+ AB’s in the Phils minors (past Hoskins, and Knapp) did that well? Maybe there was more than I am aware of but I don’t think to many players that got 400 AB’s in the Phils high minors.

          To funny with the Eagles vs Phils comparison. Would he have made the Panthers lineup? That would be something.

          1. Cozens in the 30’s? Did Winks move to Colorado…

            Cozens is one the board and I agree on after JP. I have him at 14 as well. Cozens reminds me of Chris Davis.

            1. I’ve always been lower than most here on Cozens, and I think Matt was a little harsh in his ranking.

              That said, I don’t think he has power like Chris Davis. The guy hit 8 home runs last year. When Chris Davis was 21, he hit 36 homers between Hi-A and AA. We know Cozens has plus raw power but his hit tool has been enough of a question that he projects as more of a 25-30 home run hitter in the majors if he makes it and hits his ceiling.

              I really think that a lot of commenters here see his size and envision an athletic corner OF with light-tower power, and first hand accounts from some commenters support that. But real scouts always seem to call him stiff and say he’ll be lucky to be average defensively. There’s a big disconnect between what this site’s readers want to see and what scouts are seeing.

          2. Phillies Prospects with >400ABs and OPS greater than Cozens:
            Hoskins, Knapp, Stassi, Altherr, Crawford, Herlis Rodriguez, and just missing was Angelo Mora (340 ABs), and Brian Pointer (276 ABs, but 324 PAs)
            Players with higher ISO than Cozens (min 200 PAs):
            J Hernandez, Hoskins, Altherr, Knapp, Pointer, Stassi, Martin, Perkins, Tobias, Charles, Joseph, Brown, Canzler, Randolph
            Higher Batting Average (min 200PA):
            Tobias, Hoskins, Astudillo, Mora, Knapp, Jimenez, Quinn, Randolph, Stassi, Bogusevic, H Rodriguez, Altherr, Hayden, Crawford, Tocci
            For all the fuss of Cozens vs Tocci, here are there 2015 lines
            Cozens – .286/.336/.426
            Tocci – .287/.339/.363

            1. Very good varied metric comps to Cozens.
              Now sort out all those 21-years and younger, which of course exclude all the college guys.

          3. @Rem – agree that 2015 is encouraging. With Cozens playing in REA in 2016, I expect the offensive stats to be good.

            To me, Cozens is a “POWER” guy who will be limited to RF, LF, 1B and DH positions. I value POWER but i value HIT tool more (since you have to hit to tap the power. Same logic why I value pitchers with command/control over pure helium). While the 2015 stats are really good, i read reports about some red flags on pitch recognition and mechanics (bat speed, movement, etc). I value Cozens the same as Pujols with slight edge to Cozens.

            I haven’t seen Cozens played in person that’s probably why. But I will see him a lot in REA.

            1. @Rem – i got my tickets for the futures game in REA and will be in CLW during my daughter’s spring break. i decided to put my $$ to baseball in 2016 and watch the Eagles game at home. I might drive to WIL and LWD if Corny and some of the Rule IV batch will play.

            2. Tocci Vs Cozens is a bad comparison one has plus power with Avg contact. The other had good contact with limited power. Cozens could be moved to first or DH.Tocci because of his bat can only play center. One Weird fact Cozens as of right now is a much better base stealer. Apples to Oranges again both have a show me yr Tocci repeats Clearwater maybe ,while Cozens is at Reading plus note Cozens has advanced every yr.

          4. RemHo…..in a comparative essence, Cozens in ’15, was in his third year (junior) of college….and he finished the season on a roll in AA ball.

        2. KuKo……Cozens in the teens for me…..13/14/15 area.
          IMO, he plays MLB, maybe not for the Phillies after a shakes out in the OF, but he will be there on some team.

          1. @romus – tnx! Cozens started #18 in my list as of APR 2015. But with prospects added via trades plus Rule IV and V drafts and surpising progression of Medina, Canelo, Hoskins, etc – Cozens slipped down. If not for surprising 2015, Cozens will be out of my Top 30. As of JAN 16, he’s my #23 and makes me feel bad. But to see that Cozens is not in Matt Winks and MLB’s Top 30, I think my ranking is not bad at all.

  4. The one name , conspicuous by his absence on the above selection list is OFer Jose Pujols.
    I have seen a report that had him as high as a ‘mid to late teen’ prospect.
    Which puzzled me, however, his raw physical profile is intriguing.
    He could be a polarizing discussed prospect when his name eventually emergences.

    1. Ya, I just made mention to him in reference to Ortiz above. So far I have seen spurts from him but nothing consistent. Hoping we get more from Ortiz in the next two years.

      You say raw physical profile…. I just saw on MiLB it is 6’3″ and 175 lbs….is that correct? I always thought he weighed more like Ortiz??

    2. Matt Winks is the one I saw who’s high on Pujols (listed @ #14 in his list). It’s hard to justify Pujol’s because of the lack of results.

      I love POWER (bat and arm) too. But I value HIT tool (and baseball instinct) more. Pujols can be between 21-25 because of his loud tools.

      I can see Jhailyn Ortiz as high riser in 2016 together with Medina. I don’t rank Ortiz that high yet, but I think he got good approach despite of his age.

    3. I’m out on Pujols for now. He was in WPT as both an 18 and 19 y/o and the results were not at all what you would expect to see from a future MLB player.

      Encarnacion OTOH is coming into his age 18 season his GCL results were mediocre but head above water so to speak. For now at least I’ll say he still has a chance to blossom into the player they envisioned when they gave him a million bucks.

    4. @Romus. Yeah, I’ve been waiting for someone to request that Pujols be added. Or for Pujols to receive a write-in vote. I find the absence of a clamoring for him to be added to the poll surprising. Maybe the most surprising aspect of the poll so far. FWIW, I plan on adding him in the next batch.

      1. Jim….yes that is what I thought. He could generate some debate and discussion. However, the feeling I get on this board though, is from all the early big signings starting with Tocci, him, Grullon and Encarnacion….he just doesn’t generate a lot of excitement right now as compared to the other three.

  5. Medina here for me. As others have said, he has a chance for three plus pitches. He doesn’t have great size compared to Kilome, but 6’1″ isn’t that small and at 185 lbs, it doesn’t sound like he’s frail. It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes to Lakewood next year, but Williamsport might be more likely with the logjam in the rotations.

  6. I’d slot Luis Encarnacion here! Why is Encarnacion a bigger prospect than his numbers say? Low strikeout total for a potential big bopper. That’s my simple/brilliant metric: K’s vs games played for speed and power guys. Factor in his youth & I think we’ll be yapping about this kid in the Top-10 next January. DOUBT THE SALAMI AT YOUR PERIL!

    1. Encarnacion’s 1B profile (worst defensive profile) limits his value – since he needs to really hit his way up. So far, the Power stats are not showing up. His low K% is probably in indicator that he can improve, but that’s not the only metric to consider his value.

      I think Encarnacion can crack 2016 Top 30 and may go as high as late teens if the bat is there. Top 10 might be a stretch even most of the Top prospects graduate. I can see Corny, Kilome, Alfaro, Medina, Hoskins, Kingery, Pinto, Tirado, Draft 1.1, Draft 2.1 hovering the Top 10-12 in 2016.

      IMO, I can see hitting prospects Lucas Williams and Juan Luis (and possibly Jhailyn Ortiz) moving ahead of Encarnacion in the rankings next year.

      1. @KK, I like Encarnacion, but I agree with your assessment. He’ll really need to improve his hit and power tools to overcome his deficiencies at first.

    1. Ahhh I loved Ben when we first got him in the Byrd trade. He had an amazing WHIP and K/9 then came last season and I don’t really know how you explain those results.

      I know what others have said he pitched better than his results and all but I’m a little suspect now of what he can be.

      1. Don’t be too skeptical of the results – much of it is Reading and EL related and part of it is him being kept in starts after his stuff and stamina began to fade and also not being able to routinely blow high FBs by AA hitters. Is he a great prospect? No, not really, but he’s a good prospect; a guy who could be solid 4. As a prospect, he’s kind of in the Vance Worley level; he’s not bad.

    2. Hey JoeDE, Did you go to Reading and watch him at all last year?

      The 4 games I saw him pitch he was very unimpressive. There is a big gap between him and Thompson. Heck Eflin had a couple unimpressive games last year but I also saw him pitch a couple of brilliant games.

      1. I saw Lively at Reading. He was good, not to the level of Eflin or Thompson. I don’t know what to make of him. Prior to Reading he was a big strikeout pitcher, but only 7K/9 IP for Reading. This was a repeat AA-level year for Ben. In the Southern League, in 2014, he put up 9.5 K/9 IP and almost 11 K/ 9 IP in high-A the first half of 2014. Perhaps he was a part of the PHillies pitch-to-contact philosophy. If that’s the case, it didn’t help him — he didn’t pitch any deeper into games and didn’t pitch as well as in prior seasons.

        1. allentown…I think you are correct with his pitch-to-contact thought. His GB% ticked up from ’14’s 36% to ’15:s 40%. WHIP rose a little and BB went down.
          He may have been throwing more 2Seamers. Do you have his %Usage selection?

        2. I hate the pitch to contact philosophy. I realize there are guys who can’t miss bats and have to pitch to contact. That said, when I cringe when I hear the words “pitch to contact” applied to pitchers with good stuff. I’m an advocate of pitching to catcher’s mitt.

          1. J64….high velo guys do not need to pitch to contact, normally it is the low 90s RHPs that are anointed with that philosophy. That is why I find Eflin puzzling, since if he wants he can crank it up to mid-90s with his 4S, but he says he prefers not to do that. Perhaps he cannot sustain it.

          1. Man if I get rich I’m paying some of you guys to come to the park with me and give me stats as I’m pounding beers! You guys are excellent at bring out stuff that I do for work 9+ hours a day. When I go to the game I just want to see our guys blow kick it. Reading was a lot of fun last year. Looking for more of the same this year and maybe some good times in Allentown.

            Maybe we can get Billy Joel to open a Pigs game…..then I woke up.

  7. I think people are overlooking Canelo. He is an excellent defensive SS and his half season at Lakewood produced an .830 OPS at a very respectable age 20. After promotion to CLW, he held his own with a .619 OPS. He just edged the year younger Tocci in OPS at both levels and he is to SS defense what TOcci is to CF defense. SS defense outranks CF defense.

    For comparison, Goeddel in low-A, also age 20, only put up a .702 OPS. I don’t understand Goeddel ahead of Canelo and Tocci. He’s a career .740 OPS OF who lacks the plus defense. He the shiny new object, because we got him essentially free in the Rule 5, and he played in AA, so he has the proximity thing going, but he projects as a reserve OF.

    I can easily see either Ortiz or Medina here and not too far until it’s Cozens time.

    1. Canelo’s a really good prospect who is being swallowed by the incredibly long shadow cast by J.P. Crawford. Ultimately, he’ll probably end up being traded.

      1. I thought I read somewhere that Canelo will probably end up on second as his future but I can’t remember where. Anyone else remember reading something about that?

    2. allentown…’ I can easily see either Ortiz or Medina here and not too far until it’s Cozens time.’…..Cozens came in at 14.

  8. Pivetta deserves a lot more respect here. Matt Winkelman had him 14th, neck and neck with Medina. His bad AA numbers mask a pretty good High A performance and he has a combination of decent stuff, projection, and proximity.

    1. Pivetta performed better in A+ last year, then Pinto. I guess the key for this list is to not get promoted.

  9. Apologize if this was already posted elsewhere, but I saw BP’s Top 101 was released today with 6 Phillies making the cut in the following order – Crawford, Williams, Thompson, Appel, Alfaro, and Kilome.

    A lot of last year’s list cleared out with a great rookie class in the majors, but I’m still pleased to see some of our prospects higher than I expected in the eyes of a couple national experts.

    1. SORRY. I HAD TO DELETE THE LINK TO BASEBALL PROSPECTUS’ TOP 101 SINCE IT HAS NOT BEEN RELEASED YET AND IS NOT SCHEDULED TO BE RELEASED UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY. SORRY.

      1. Fair enough. Took it from the Reds’ SB Nation Site, which apparently pulled the link from the BP publisher. Didn’t seem too shady to me, but you gotta do what you gotta do. Thanks for keeping us all clear!

        1. Odd since February 3rd is the scheduled release date, but if you google ‘BASEBALL PROSPECTUS’ TOP 101 2016’…it comes up with the PDF and other team prospects on the list.

    2. The list makes me for excited about Nick Williams. They have him #25, and there are some very good players on the list up to #46, that I really like.

      04: Crawford
      25: Nick Williams
      34: Jake Thompson
      64: Mark Appel
      70: Jorge Alfaro
      96: Franklyn Kilome

      1. The Braves guys on the list aren’t ranked as high as I would have expected:

        27. Dansby Swanson
        32. Sean Newcombe
        37. Ozhaino Albes
        79. Austin Riley
        82. Koby Allard

        1. They also have Aaron Blair at 43. So both Phils and Braves get six guys on, but the two highest rated are Phils. I’ll take it.

          1. Oops. Forgot to add him. Interesting to compare the prospects the Phillies, Braves and Padres received in their big trades of the last Six months:

            Cole Hamels: #25 Williams, #34 Thompson and #70 Alfaro
            Shelby Miller: #27 Dansby Swanson and #43 Aaron Blair
            Craig Kimbrel: #14 Manuel Margot and #56 Javier Guerra
            A. Simmons: #32 Newcomb

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