Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #7

Roman Quinn was selected the organization’s #6 prospect by a comfortable margin.  Of 477 votes cast, Quinn received 164 (34%) and and easily outdistanced Jorge Alfaro who received 119 votes (25%).  Franklyn Kilome made a late run at second but eventually fell short with 101 votes (21%).

Quinn has had each of his last 3 seasons truncated by injury.  After a promising start at Williamsport in 2012 where he slashed .281/.370/.408/.778, Quinn struggled to a .238/.323/.346/.669 in half a season at Lakewood in 2013.  He missed 6 weeks to start the 2014 season in Clearwater and posted a .257/.343/.370/.713 before a promising stint in the AFL where he slashed .250/.361/.359/.720 among the games’ future stars.

Quinn started 2015 healthy at Reading and raced out to a .306/.356/.435/.791 before another injury shortened his season.  He spent some time in the Dominican Winter League, but none of the stats listed on multiple sites match.  Even Baseball Reference has 3 sets of conflicting info, two different lines for Licey neither of which match the game logs.

I posted this about Roman Quinn back on October 13, 2012 on my old blog at the end of 2012 Instructs:

This kid looks like Rollins’ heir apparent. Rollins has 3 more years plus an option. That gives the Phillies 3 years to move Quinn through the organization. He displayed decent range and a strong arm on the few balls hit to short.

The most exciting thing is that (are you ready for this?) he bunts and is fast. The first game in which I saw Quinn, the third baseman moved up onto the grass. Quinn still bunted, but pushed it foul. He took the second pitch but still showed bunt. By now the corners were up on the grass 10-15 feet. The kid still bunted toward third. Not even a great bunt. Popped in the air a little, head high, but landed and stopped like I wish my wedge would. Even with the third baseman positioned shallow and charging, Quinn easily beat the throw.

He had 4 bunt hits. He also swings away well. I saw him slap a line drive over the first baseman’s head and stretch it into a triple as it sliced toward the line. He steals bases and flies from first to third. He looks like, what old guys like me call, a leadoff hitter.

So, injuries and a position change have slowed his progress.  But, even then, a newbie like me could spot a gifted player.

Quinn shows bunt
Quinn showing bunt during 2015 Instructs. Photo courtesy of Joe Kuhn.

So far the Top 30 looks like this:

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Nick Williams
  3. Jake Thompson
  4. Mark Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Roman Quinn

The e-mail addresses for your prospect lists and addition of a prospect to the poll are – using the Subject – My Prospect List using the Subject – Add Prospect

Next up is your selection for the #7 prospect in the organization.  Closer vote expected.

81 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #7

  1. I want to believe in Kilome. I truly do. And I’m as excited about watching him this up-coming season as I am virtually any other prospect.

    But today? I can’t just put my money behind that horse.

    Too much risk, too much uncertainly, too few IPs, injuries, no dominant results. Seeing is believing, and I just haven’t seen it. Its all speculation (and wishful thinking) to me right now.

    Ironic, since my choice here also requires a certain leap-of-faith: Alfaro.

    Big holes in his games, has never consistently put it all together. But he has two plus plus, if not elite, tools: power and arm. And plays a position that’s probably the hardest to fill on the diamond.

    The range of outcomes for Alfaro seems as large as anyone’s: from HOF career to selling insurance in four years. But having your 7th best prospect even have that sort of potential upside, mark me down. Even though I can be pragmatic in my ranking of prospects, sometimes you have to swing for the fences.

    1. I loves me some catchers with 80 grade tools. Don’t get me wrong. But Kilome is the clearly better prospect.

      I believe that you are putting too much weight on Kilome’s lack of lights out stats. But he is just learning to pitch. His stuff is electric and his command is good and he is only 19.

      Alfaro is exciting. But he will never see 80 in-game power. His hit tool is just not there.

      Kilome’s fallback is an elite back end bullpen arm. Alfaro’s fallback is a defense only backup catcher.

        1. “Enthusiasm about Alfaro is largely driven by his impressive power potential and his big arm. Jason Parks has previously described Alfaro as being a 6 runner, with 7+ raw power and an 8 arm. put a 75 on Alfaro’s arm, a 65 on his power and a 60 future overall grade. That package means that, if things come together for Alfaro, you’re looking at a potential future All Star.” –Lone Star Ball, Jan 27, 2015

          “Alfaro has the tools and athletic ability to become a high-average, power-hitting catcher with speed.”
          “In a system loaded with young talent, Alfaro sits atop’s list of the Rangers’ Top 20 Prospects”
          “Alfaro’s combination of agility and cat-like quickness behind the plate allows him to easily block balls in the dirt. ”
          “A take-charge type, Alfaro showed good leadership qualities while shepherding his pitchers through games. He showed an ability to frame pitches, moving his glove slightly and deftly to the strike zone to assist the umpire in ringing up strikes.”
 | @BerniePleskoff | November 29th, 2013
          Bernie Pleskoff has served as a professional scout for the Houston Astros and Seattle

    2. I went with Knapp as the surer catcher. I have him one slot above Alfaro. I am the odd man out on Kilome. I like him as a prospect, but see him as all projection. He is in my top 10, but since he didn’t shine stat-wise in SS, I want to see what he does in a full-season league before ranking him this high. He is being values as a middle rotation or better ceiling and has yet to show the ability to throw enough IP to be other than very risky for that ceiling.

      1. I guess I should elaborate on the extent of my contrianess. I have Eflin one slot above Appel at #7 and two slots above Kilome. So, why do I rank the GCL performance of C Randolph as worthy of slot #4, while not ranking Kilome above #9, because he has only done it in SS? I think my two reasons are solid. Randolph was young for GCL. At age 20, Kilome was old for a HS or LA kid in Williamsport. Equally important: Randolph’s stats sparkled; Kilome’s stats did not sparkle. Another reason to downgrade Kilome is that stamina is not yet demonstrated. It may be in there, but in 11 starts in both GCL and NYP over the past two seasons, he has pitched 40 and 49 innings — that’s just under 4 to just under 5 IP per average start.

        1. Can understand your questions as regards to Kilome.
          I also have the same issues.
          The only other LA pitchers signed by the Phillies to get this much early acclaim was Carlos Carrasco. But Carrasco, at his age20 season, had close to 300 innings pitched and showed the results expected for a top 100 ranking.
          So, not sure if the majority of all the published analyst projects are actually something to be excited about

  2. Franklyn Kilome. The comparable I keep hearing in relation to Alfaro does not inspire excitement. Jeff Francouer if he plays RF… Miguel Olivo… if he sticks behind the plate. A decent #3 pitcher could match Miguel Olivo’s 12 year, career WAR, in 4 seasons. Kilome has a higher ceiling than Alfaro.

      1. … and a Top prospect list is different from a ‘Most likely to get a cup of coffee in the majors’ list…

        1. Very true but if you look at best case scenario Alafaro seems to be closer to his than Kilome. In all reality if they both hit their ceiling (Kilome a strong number 2 and Alafaro a .260 hitting catcher who hits for good power and is an adequate defender but great at throwing at base stealers) they are pretty similar. Alafaro is just closer therefore of more value to people who value ceiling. If you were arguing Kilome vs. Lively you have a case but not Kilome vs. Alafaro IMO.

          1. I think you might mean “who value floor.” Proximity is generally a better gauge of floor than ceiling. That said, proximity does help put all prospects in a more defined relief.

            I know some people on this board use perceived trade value as a proxy for ranking prospects. And I’d be hard pressed to believe that Kilome would net a greater return than Alfaro.

            1. Your consistent ‘floor’ is > ‘ceiling’ theme, doesn’t really apply here. Neither Alfaro or Kilome are sure things to make the Major Leagues. Both players’ prospect status is based on highly rated tools that hasn’t produced great results on the field. Both players have low floors, so I really don’t get the application. They’re both all projection based on tools.

              Your telling me that as Alfaro stands right now, with no improvement, and a generous likely outcome of Miguel Olivo (80 power, terrible OBP skills, mediocre defensive catcher) and his career 9 WAR, is a better prospect than a pitcher that all Scouting sources say has a ceiling of #2 starter, with floor as back-end reliever? Even if Kilome is nothing more than a #4 or set-up man, those downside outcomes produce more WAR.

      2. Why do you say Kilome is less likely to reach ceiling than Alfaro?

        That is backwards IMO.

        Alfaro has a serious risk due to his hit tool. Kilome can comman a 70 grade fastball right now. As a 19 yo. He also commands his plus curve. He is a far lower risk IMO than Alfaro.

        1. Yes, I was going to say something similar. Just because Alfaro is at a higher level doesn’t mean he’s more likely to reach his ceiling.

          1. Mark,

            A very interesting article. Thanks for posting.

            My question: how did Steve Carlton, Bob Gibson and Nolan Ryan pitch so hard for all those years and not be injured?

            I understand the argument about kids pitching year-round, but these guys, year-round or not, pitched a lot of innings every year.

            Is it possible that a four-man rotation is the best combination of exertion and rest, assuming you don’t pitch 10 months a year?

    1. I concede that I am not sold on the high ceiling of Alfaro at a position other than catcher. We just haven’t seen any signs that the bat is very good compared to 1B and LF competitors.

  3. Does anyone know how many prospects are going to be rule V eligible next winter? I guess I could figure it out but it seems like to much work.

  4. Alfaro for #7. The Phillies lack power above all other tools. Alfaro has it; plus, an outstanding arm. He, like Knapp, needs time to work on his pitch calling and his hitting skill, but what we lack is there. I look for him to start displaying what he lacks in his game. He is definitely someone to be patient with and to look forward to.

  5. As said above, power and a strong arm define a great catcher if the other factors are covered. He’s risky certainly but Alfaro is a highly sought after prospect because of that ceiling. Kilome is after him for me.

    1. I always think of Valle when I look at Alfaro’s stats. It’s the reason I value Knapp more … a good hit tool and a solid approach at the plate is a much easier road to the bigs than raw power, big arm and wait-and-see.

      1. I don’t want to sound like I don’t like Alfaro but if you don’t like Knapp ahead of him surely Kilome is ahead of him.

        1. DMAR…Knapp is my man here anyway.
          He’s been in the org 30 months now, and lost almost 30% in defensive catching development due to the Oct ’13 surgery, only 42 games in ’14 behind the plate, that is about half of what most minor league catchers due in one season..

      2. The concerns are understandably but Alfaro’s lifetime OBP is .326 – a lot better than Valle’s and the scouting reports are much better than Valle’s who never had any potential carrying tools (Alfaro also takes a ton of HBP [about 20 a year] – to the point where it is a significant part of his OBP). Still, I have reservations and I like Knapp, so I have him rated higher too. My view is that the next three are Knapp, Alfaro and Kilome, regardless of who you rank above who.

    2. DMAR…I think you have a valid point there. Alfaro would seem to have a better power bat, however all the other variables seem similar. Valle did possess a good arm, not in Alfaro’s class, but I think his CS% was better then Alfaro’s at the A level.

      1. And just to be fair in a few more votes I will attempt to argue for Hoskins and thus face some of you tell me that he is Ruf all over again LOL.

        1. DMAR….well, I think you will have two closely behind on the Hoskins’ voting …J64 and v1. And I am also leaning Hoskins in the 10-12 range.

            1. I really like Hoskins’ consistency. He makes use of his talents. If he can maintain that at higher levels I think he can be a 20 to 25 HR guy with 90 RBIs in the Bigs.

              Obviously, the big question is whether he can hit higher level pitching. We’ll know a lot about that in a few months.

    3. I must have missed where Valle was a top 100 guy by the national pickers. Don’t minimize Alfaro because the catchers before him didn’t cut it.

  6. Considered Knapp here, but ultimately went with Kilome, for the same reason i just spent ten bucks on Powerball tickets. (BTW, I plan to use my winnings to buy a minority share in the ownership group … we’re all in July 2!)

    1. Good luck on both fronts.
      Your odds of winning the PowerBall may be better then cracking the Middleton/Buck/Giles/Montgomery and whoever else is in the ownership foundation.

  7. I went with Knapp. Next will be Alfaro then Kilome. I seem to be valuing proximity more than projection at this point in the ranking, which is odd for me. I love the possibility of Kilome being a #2 but I have seen too many talented young pitchers fail to reach that potential.

  8. Went with Kilome,the Only pitcher that projects to a future #2.Has electric stuff,If he stays healthy this year and beyond he’ll move to the next levels quickly.

    My next vote will be for Knapp,Is it realistic that Alfaro’s 2016 numbers will even be close to what Knapp had in 15? I highly doubt it,I hope I’,m wrong.

    1. I really don’t get the ‘electric stuff’ from Kilome. The present Kilome seems far from electric. Tirado, Cordero, Thompson are these more likely guys to call electric. Exactly what about Kilome’s pitching arsenal makes him electric? I think that’s a fair question, because he doesn’t have unusual velocity or an unusual K-rate, or an absolutely killer breaking pitch.

  9. I went with Knapp. I based that, in part, on Alfaro’s injury last year, and the fact that I need to see him, and that Kilome just has not produced numbers, even SSS numbers that match his stuff. They are my next 2 choices, however, so I like both. I just believe Knapp has a legit hit tool, and his improved Defensive play makes me put him here.

  10. What if Alfaro goes out and hits 250 with 20 homers and 80 rbis at Reading and shows improved defense and a great throwing arm? I could also see Knapp hitting 290 with 10 homers at LHV with improved defense. I’ve seen Knapp’s arm in the past but want to see if its improved one more year out from the surgery. Both sets of numbers reasonable? We would have 2 legit future major leaguers but those 20 homers would stand out because power is in short supply and big demand these days. How many catchers in the major leagues can hit over 20 homers?

    1. It would depend on their BB and K rates, but I think that’s about what people are hoping for from them. If Knapp is hitting .290 with a good OBP and improved defense, he might not stay in AAA long enough to hit 10 homers there.

    2. @Murray: Miguel Olivo did exactly what you said in his career season, and produced just 1.6 WAR. He hit .250 with 23 HRs. That line isn’t that valuable when you factor in his K%, BB% and OBP.

      Miguel Olivo 2009: 23 HRs, .250 BA, .292 OBP, 30.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, .241 ISO

      That line produced a negative oWAR.

      Jorge Alfaro 2015 AA: 5 HRs, .253 BA, .314 OBP, 29.5 K%, 4.3 BB%, .179 ISO.

      1. Not very positive, clearly an obp under 300 is going to be tough to overcome. He’ll need to improve that walk percentage. 4.3% is too low for a power hitter

        1. Yes. If he is just an OK receiver, he has a lot of work to do with both his BB% and his K%. If he had strong reviews as a receiver, you can live with that kind of offensive line, but he isn’t thought to be a skilled defensive catcher.

  11. I was reading the last thread, where someone said in response to my vote for Kilome that going for the risky prospect in rookie ball was reminiscent of something this board “used to do five years ago.” Actually when I thought about that a little harder, I realized it’s almost completely backwards. If you had to look at one area where people on this board have consistently been way off the mark, it’s been in overvaluing prospects received back in trades, like Tommy Joseph, Tyson Gillies and Phillippe Aumont. (And, though it’s too soon to tell, I fear Eflin, Lively and Windle could join that list). In other words, what I see if is tendency to fall in love with the other kid’s toys instead of appreciating our own.

    1. I’m guilty of that Andrew. I had mad love for Gillies! I never thought much of the others.

      Eflin I like around 13. He pitches in the MLB for sure. The question for me is what degree of success does he have. If he develops some type of a put away pitch he could be really good.

        1. I’m buying the Hoskins stock. What I see in Rhys is a hitter that really let’s the ball travel. From there he has the quickness and bat speed to drive balls deep the other way.

          Hitters that possess this ability fair better than guys who try to get started too early. That extra fraction of a second allows for better pitch recognition.

          The essential skill to being a complete big league hitter.

          Guys will get by for a while hunting nothing but Fastballs. It would be really interesting to see Ruf’s 2012 38 HR AA spray chart.

          1. Tim….not sure he is considered a prospect anymore by many of the experts!
            Most of the national pollsters have him out of the top twenty as of right now, and saw one at 31st. What does it all mean…he will be in the majors in 2018 pummeling balls all over the field. The Dom Brown Bizarro World effect.

        2. Thanks Romus. I love Rhys.

          IMO he gets under rated because of faulty pattern recognition. Guys like Ruf (who were fools gold) jade our perception. But Rhys is a differs prospect. I believe that he will be a very good MLB player. And I think he will be in the show in 2016.

          1. v1….for sure if he rakes @Reading and continues above average hitting @ LHV, he could very well be a September call-up this season, but if I know the Phillies, they may not want to start his service time and just wait until May/June 2017. Though Franco was a recent exception.

            1. I think more than anything, they want to figure out if he is a long term piece or if they need to find a 1b. No way to tell that than give him ABs

      1. I have to admit that I really believed in Gillies at one point. I thought he was a surefire pro CF with a glove and a bat and a great attitude on the field. Oh well…. I was certainly wrong about him.

      2. Gillies had a lot of injury problems, some misdiagnosis of same, and the Phillies seemed not quite sensitive enough in dealing with the social issues associated with his deafness. The deafness also seemed to cause at least one OF collision which gave him serious injury time out.

  12. Look at the Alfaro vs Kilome this way we do have with Knapp , Grullon to Catcher’s that are high prospects. How many pitcher’s do the Phillies have that possibly be a number 1,2. Kilome nobody really knows his ceiling Alfaro has holes in his game that ready need to be worked on. It’s more projection with Kilome but the easy Delivery and solid work habits he may come on in lakewood .this yr wil see .

      1. Interesting that Ruiz is rated worst at framing pitches to get extra called strikes, yet Phillies pitchers are said to love throwing to him.

        1. Perhaps the fact the Phillies started quite a few different pitchers in 2015 and he just was not too familiar with their tendencies and their pitch ending locations. Plus most of them , not named Hamels or Nola, did not have pin point command.

  13. Weird question and i know it’s not for this section but not many are checking the Gen Discussion while these are going on. Galvis . . has he done better then what people expected out of him when he was a prospect or worse? Or is this what people expected? is this a good outcome for what he was as a prospect?

    1. Much worse defensively, and on target offensively that I expected. I thought he’d be a plus defender at SS, instead he’s minus. His future could be at 2B when JP arrives.

      1. Overall Galvis is what I expected. He’s a utility infielder. But I agree that he is much worse defensively, than his Scouting reports. He a little better offensively, than I expected. Overall a low ceiling prospect, who’s provided low impact in his major league role.

  14. So far my top 9 (while not in exact order) looks good with;

    7) Alfaro, 8) Kilome, 9) Knapp

    I have Eflin at 10, Hoskins at 11, and Cozens at 12 ……will see if that holds of with the majority of yaz

    1. Goeddel > Cozens > Hoskins. But the boards vote will probably fall the way you rank the prospects.

  15. Galvis for his first yr starting has done well 7 hr 50 rbi did good in the field. He not Jp he just holding the torch.

  16. Danny Stumpf is a guy flying under the radar. He’s killing it in the winter leagues with 13 games, 18 IP, 2 ERs, 10 Ks and 5 BBs. Last year in the Texas League he had 76Ks in 70 IP. He is 25 y/o but that’s pretty good for a Rule 5. I haven’t decided whether to include the Rule 5 guys in my top 30 but he might be interesting in the last couple of slots in the top 30 (28, 29 or 30) if I do.

    1. My brain is on work right now but who was the Phils pitching rule 5 last year. I maybe getting him mixed up with someone (maybe not even a rule 5) from the year before who looked good the first half of spring training than not so much.

      Hopeful he and Goeddel can stick!

        1. the good news is Stumpf’s command seems to be a little better. I was surprised Oliver didn’t catch on in a big league pen last season. His K rate was a sick 10/9

          Unfortunately for him his BB rate was almost that high!

          1. Agree.
            He would have been of good usage in the over-used Phillies pen last year if he could just have a more command.

  17. I personally do not rank Rule 5 guys in my January prospect rankings. If they somehow stick with the team after spring training and get assigned to AAA or AA then I will will rank them after the draft in June.

    I also don’t consider guys like Sweeney and Asher but per your rules I’m surprised Asher’s name is not being mentioned more. Not that he profiles as top 10 but if I were considering him qualified for a ranking he would top 30 for sure.

  18. I guess the main reason I don’t rate Kilome higher is I’d like to see him perform at a higher level (A,AA not better performance though I’d like that too) before I rate him ahead of some of the proven commodities Not down on him by any means just not as sky high as other voters

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