Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #6

Cornelius Randolph is selected #5 prospect in the organization by a comfortable margin. He received 274 of the 479 votes cast (57%).  The race for second was much closer.  Roman Quinn edged Jorge Alfaro by 2 votes, 54-52.  

Randolph was the Phillies’ first round pick, seventh overall in the 2015 MLB June Amateur Draft.  The young man turned 18 just a few days before the draft.  He signed on June 17th and was in Clearwater 8 days later where he debuted by going 3-3 with a triple, run scored, RBI, and walk.  He made his first start in the outfield on June 29th.

From the beginning, “C” has impressed with his advanced approach at the plate.  Every at bat he already looks like a big league hitter by his confidence, his stance, his composure, and his adjustments during an at bat.

Randolph slashed .302/.425/.442/.866 in 212 plate appearances.  He walked 32 times and was hit by a pitched ball 6 times.  He struck out 32 times in 172 at bats.  He only homered once, but he had 18 other extra base hits.  He batted third in all but one game when he went 2-4 batting clean up.

Line drive to right during Instructs.

Randolph’s splits are virtually the same against right-handed or left-handed pitchers. He hit better in August than he did in June and July.  With runners in scoring position (RISP), he slashed .326/.476/.565/.1.041.  With 2 outs and RISP, he slashed an even better .438/.591/.938/.1.528.  And in extra innings, he went 3-3 with a double, walk, and 3 RBI – 1.000/.800/.1.333/2.133.

Randolph was converted to the outfield this summer and committed no errors while playing left field.  On the base paths, he was caught stealing on 5 of 11 attempts.

“C” is one of my favorite players to watch, especially at the plate.  Some observers down here have compared his approach and style to Tony Gwynn.  I’d be happy if he developed enough power to warrant comparisons to Gary “Sarge” Matthews.

The e-mail addresses for your prospect lists and addition of a prospect to the poll are – using the Subject – My Prospect List using the Subject – Add Prospect

Next up is your selection for the #6 prospect in the organization.  Could be another close vote.

Photos courtesy of Joe Kuhn

82 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #6

    1. I liked Quinn at #5 personally. Nothing against C I just feel like Quinn is closer and I think he can be an above average mlb player. His speed is real!!

    2. Fritz… Very well put. Impressive analysis. Speed never slumps. I love the way you said that in 3 quick words. Indeed, sir.

    3. You seem to value floor over ceiling. Which is fine. But when you have a guy like Kilome, who has the ceiling of an elite pitcher, I can’t vote Quinn over him. I like Quinn. Don’t get me wrong. He is a good prospect. But Kilome is an elite prospect.

      1. I’d rather flirt with the cute girl at the party, whom I have a better chance of kissing, than the supermodel =)

        Sure, if I hit it off with the supermodel, its a dream come true. But the odds of that happening are pretty low. I’ll take bird in hand every time.

        What are the odds Kilome reaches The Show? Right now, based on age, injuries and production, I’d put that at around 10%.

        How about for Eflin? I’d say its probably 50/50 he reaches the big leagues.

        If I have a 10% chance with a girl who’s a 7, my expected return is .7.

        If I have a 50% chance with a girl who’s a 4.5, my expected return is 2.25.

        Its not necessarily floor that interests me–but a prospects’ expected contribution at the major league level, namely, tools X likelihood of achieving that result.

        If I was ranking the girls solely on their looks, sure, the supermodel would outrank the cute girl. So I completely understand why people on this board value raw tools over estimated expected return.

        1. fritz…interesting philosophy.
          You have Kilome at 10% of ‘reaching the show’, I assume as a one/elite/ace?…..percent could be a lot higher if he ends up in the bullpen with only two outstanding plus pitches

          1. Yeah, that was a flawed response. the percentages were made up and the value was also made up. neither metric was based on anything besides Frtiz’s wild ass guess.

            Eflin projects as a #5. The value gap between a #1 and a #5 is enormous. Even if the probability is 5:1 as fritz states, which I don’t think it is, the expected return on a #1 outweighs the expected return on a #5 with a higher probability.

            1. What would say the odds are that Eflin reaches the majors? I think 50% is a fair bet. Maybe slightly higher.

              Likewise with Kilome: He’s 20, hasn’t risen above low-A, has been injured and has less than 90 IP. I’d say, based on historical comparisons with similar pitchers, 10% is a fair estimate of his chances of reaching the show. I even think 10% is generous.

            2. you would say that because you are fan and want to believe it. but you will have a hard time finding a scouting report from professional scouts who have watched him pitch that would support that he has the ceiling of a #3. his k rate is horrific.

            3. Plus Quinn has been injured 3 times he’s only 22 . Two were leg injuries which is his bread& butter . He has reached 325 at bats once I believe he needs 1 season of at least 400 AB’s. Quinn maybe the biggest risk right now. 2 other things 1 Herrera already in CF and has done well his first yr. Weather Herrera can do it again with less k’s and still hit for a high avg with some pop needs to be seen. Herrera also had a 3.3 war defense which pretty good . 3 Ben Revere had 597 AB’s last yr as mostly a lead off man. Can Quinn stay heathly enough to play CF everyday in the Majors. Kilome has risks too but he throws 97 mph with downward movement at 20 . They both have risks everybody has there own option which -is higher.

        2. If you have 100% change with a girl who’s a 3, your expected return is 3. But you should have a baseline of girls you would not be interested in.

          Say that line is 3. You should then subtract all of those from the 3, so the 10% chance with the 7 becomes (7-3)*.1 = .4. 50% chance with a 4.5 = .75. You can of course move your baseline up or down accordingly.

          (None of this should be taken seriously; just having some fun)

          1. I don’t think you want to assess probability to your established “3” in either case. But it’s still fun. I’m still trying to figure out how the supermodel became a 7. Must be one of those waif thin supermodels. No thank you.

        3. no offense Fritz – but I got the sense that you are not more of a “risk taker” in your stance. I can start to see that when you value RP’s highly than most and your cute girl analogy.

          in the finance world, you’re like an investor who likes to invest in Treasury Bonds (with low but safe and steady returns) than Stocks (high risk but may bring back amazing returns).

          i’m not questioning your logic but now I start to understand it because I’m quite the opposite that’s why i disagree with most of your position – which is cool. peace!

        4. I’m pretty sure your chances with even the cute girls would be diminished if they found out about your flirting metric.

      2. v,

        Quinn might be elite, too, if he could ever stay healthy.

        His speed, base running, fielding, arm, hitting ability and hint of at least some power can make him an all-star, I think.

          1. I really don’t think that’s a best case since Coleman was a well below average hitter and, according to Fangraphs, not a good defensive player. Quinn could be a league average hitter and an asset defensively. I mean, he’ll never get close to 100 SBs in a season but the rest of his game could be much better.

            1. Bourn for a couple of years was a terrific player with speed to burn. He’s my comp for Quinn although Quinn is faster but Bourn was a terrific base stealer in his prime (which has passed).

      3. agree with V1 – i have Kilome @ #6. if Kilome posted better stats (as others argued), then he can be easily go #3-4.

    4. true, as long as Quinn stays healthy and can use his legs. quinn is like a horse, his value depends on his legs.

  1. I see Alfaro is getting a lot of votes. And if this poll was strictly about tools and upside potential, no doubt he’d be in the upper tier–if he ever put it all together, my god, we could be witnessing another Pudge.

    That said, he just hasn’t. And the Texas League is a notorious hitters league, and even there his numbers don’t jump out. He’ll be 23 this season when he opens at Reading (I’m guessing that’s where he’ll open, with Knapp at AAA), and he needs to produce this year.

  2. Kilome is my guy right here. He could have the highest upside of any pitcher in the organization and I’m going to vote on that this year. If he doesn’t dominate, everywhere he goes next year, he’ll drop from contention.

    Alfaro has giant holes but he has some loud tools too. He’ll be next with Knapp nipping at his heals.

    Quinn is my #10. His problems staying on the field are concerning to me and the injuries are to his legs. That’s his strength. He seemed to be breaking out in AA and then an injury. He comes back to play in the Dominican Winter leagues and not very well. His .212/.278/.313 was ugly. In his last 10 games, before they mercifully sent him home, he slashed .171/.258/.171… uglier. He K’ed 27% of the time but that seemed to get a little better near the end of his LA stint. I think he has to prove himself once again this year and then maybe he’ll warrant a top 5 vote. He’ll probably start in AA again. He needs that and Williams is patrolling CF in AAA, at least for a while.

  3. I like Quinn for #6. The health question is serious, but I can’t ignore the excitement he generates with his speed. I am looking forward to his picking up where he left off last year and expect he’ll be with the Phillies toward the end of 2017.

  4. I’m going with Quinn in a tight vote over Kilome. He posted the highest OPS of his career (.791) in Reading, cut down on his strikeouts and stole one base for every two games he appeared. By all accounts, the speed, arm and instincts play well in CF. He has a little pop, gets his bat on the ball and can really burn with plus-plus speed.

    Yes, he is an injury waiting to happen. But at least we have an idea of what he can do on the field. Kilome’s scouting reports are drool inducing at times, but there are still many question marks. He’s pitched less than 90 innings professionally in two seasons, none above short season. Quinn is a safer bet, IMO, and has a chance to be a first division regular at his position.

    Kilome next, followed by Knapp/Alfaro (whom I wish I could Frankenstein into one player with Knapp’s hit tool, approach and footwork and Alfaro’s raw power and arm).

  5. Jim — quick suggestion. Maybe post the updated list in each days daily post, so we can see each day what the list looks like currently. Thanks

  6. I have Andrew Knapp here, then Kilome. Being a switch hitting catcher will give him added value and reports that his defense is at least adequate, make me believe (short of injury) he’s the safest major league bet outside of Crawford.

  7. I went with Quinn. After that I’d go Knapp, Kilome and Alfaro. Alfaro has better tools and is more highly regarded than Knapp, but Knapp has shown that he can hit – Alfaro’s still in the “show me” phase. I have a lot of hope for Kilome, but he’s far away at this point. He could move quickly once the season begins and surge through the rankings.

    In retrospect I’m glad I voted for Randolph at #5 – you just don’t find too many young hitters with that type of hit tool, plate discipline and power projection. He’s a rare breed and kudos for Johnny Almaraz and his staff for locking onto this kid. Also, no big deal, but Randolph was the 10th pick, not the 7th pick (Nola, the year before, was the 7th pick).

  8. One request … in the past, each post related to the top 30 kept a running tab of who filled the voted in spots. I thought this was great to reference back to as we see the list being built.

    Just a thought.

    Thanks for all you do for the site!

    1. DMAR…you nicely nailed Knapp…though there would appear to be plenty of steps between the Saltalamachia ground floor and the Posada second floor. Some in NY argue that Posada should be given serious consideration as a serious HoF candidate..

      1. Jorge for whatever reason didn’t take over full time catching duty until he was 26 I believe. It’s possible had he come along earlier in age he would be.

        I wonder how many guys made the HOF getting to he MLB at 26?

      2. I tried to find a switch hitting catcher in the middle and it wasn’t easy without going back to old times. You could maybe say Wieters IDK

          1. Ted Simmons is actually a very interesting comp for Knapp’s ceiling – marginal defense, great hitter with a fine hit tool and some power. He was the forgotten man in the Johnny Bench era.

            1. Although in fairness to Ted Simmons, by the time he was Knapp’s age, he was an established star in the big leagues. That said, I could still see Knapp, if he reaches his potential, putting up stat lines that are reminiscent of those posted by Simmons. But that’s Knapp’s tippy-top ceiling for his peak years – it’s obviously likely he’ll never be anywhere near that good; Simmons is in the tier of players right below HOF level.

  9. I went with Quinn as we discussed yesterday. He has more than speed. Yes, health is a concern, but he can hit and has the projection of a Gold Glove CF. Kilome just has not had nearly enough success for me, and he, Alfaro, Knapp and Eflin fill my next 4 slots.

      1. After that, it’s probably:

        11. Goeddel
        12. Hoskins
        13. Medina
        14. Pinto
        15. Cozens
        16. Tocci
        17. Sweeney
        18. Kingery
        19. Pinto
        20. Tirado
        21. Lively
        22. Pivetta (which says something about the depth of the system as I actually like Pivetta quite a bit)

        1. Sorry for listing Pinto twice – the higher ranking is what I intended.

          And, yes, I do like Goeddel. If you look at his last several months in AA and combine it with the scouting reports, there’s a lot to be excited about. He’s a very fine prospect.

          1. J4…maybe also a little of an Odubel Herrera hangover? Would be great for lightning to strike twice from a Rule 5 pick.

            1. I view it more as an Odubel pick-me-up rather than a hangover. With Goeddel it’s all about the hit tool – everything else is there.

        2. I posted my Top 10 in the previous thread, and here’s my version of the next 10 and I have Eschelman (#21), Imhof (#22) and Cozens (#23)next.

          11. Ricardo Pinto
          12. Scott Kingery
          13. Carlos Tocci
          14. Rhys Hoskins
          15. Deivi Grullon
          16. Nick Pivetta
          17. Alberto Tirado
          18. Malquin Canelo
          19. Adonis Medina
          20. Tyler Goeddel

          I’m not fully sold on Cozens yet until I see some improvement in his Power tool. Matt Winks released his 31-40 yesterday and Cozens ranks @ #31 so I don’t feel guilty of my ranking at all.

            1. IMO, MW values tools plus physical projection and give less to no credit to proximity. younger guys with tools will rank high in MW list sometimes regardless of the stat line — examples are deivi grullon, jose pujols, arquimedes gamboa and jhailyn ortiz. adonis medina’s tools plus results will propel him really high in MW rankings (from Unranked Top 50 to potentially Top 10). gamboa already ranks #35 and grullon, pujols already guarateed Top 30 spots if not Top 20.

              my philospohy somehow leans towards MW way but i give more credit to promixity (and higher floor) and will wait for some time (and results) to rank the younger prospects with tools. in my personal ranking, Gamboa only ranks #49, Ortiz #44 and Medina #19. Grullon ranks #15 mainly becuase of his defensive profile and position (and high floor).

            1. J64…correct on the indepth prospect analysis…the forcasted projection remains to be seen. I am willing to bet Cozens will be more than what is projected.

  10. Same as yesterday, Quinn, Kilome, Alfaro, and Knapp are all close. Quinn here, although if I had a crystal ball and could see if he could make it through a season or two I would feel better about it. Speed does not help you much when your in the tub. Kind of interesting that there are a number of Alfaro votes but nobody is claiming him?

    1. I claimed Alfaro at 4. I believe he is healthy now and before his injury some references had him ahead of Williams and Thompson. Minor league stats have little projectability until AAA, so none of the players being discussed have proven anything, Quinn, Knapp, and Williams could all struggle in Lehigh Valley. None is likely to be a star, although any of them could be. Knapp is a poor defensive catcher right now. It’s all about tools with the two injury-prone choices here, Quinn and Alfaro. I’ll take the 75 arm and 75 power for my catcher, even if he is a longer shot than the others.

      1. Hey Ken, that’s interesting that you feel they are not projectable stats wise until AAA. Where did you get that from? I also heard that defense was not real strong for Alfaro…….so its been shown that he is a better defensive catcher than Knapp?

        I have not seen Alfaro or Kilome but I have seen Knapp and Quinn. They looked real good to me me last year and as far injuries both Alfaro and Quinn will be coming off them and in AAA so this year we will learn a lot.

        Thanks for your reasoning in choosing alfaro

        1. I was afraid someone would ask about the non-projectable stats until AAA because I’m not sure. I think it was Eric Longenhagen when he was at Crashburn Alley talking about his work at Baseball Info Solutions. It was definitely someone like that talking matter of factually about it based on professional experience. Whoever it was, the fact made lot of sense to me, so I remember it.

        2. I think Alfaro and Knapp both currently need a lot of work defensively, but I think Alfaro has more upside. I like Quinn ahead of all except Alfaro here.

          1. I also like Quinn ahead of C. I want to see C in a full season. He’s a bit 1-dimensional right now, hitting. He’s young and raw and plays a low value position. I like him, but not yet as much as others on this site.

  11. as i posted yesterday, i have Kilome @ #6 then Quinn @ #7. Speed kills – i get that. but for someone who (and probably will) rely on his legs to be successful – risk of injury needs to be highly considered. that’s where Quinn slipped down in my ranking.

    1. I agree about Quinn’s injury history. I voted for Kilome here (again) and I would have Quinn somewhere from 4-7 if he could stay healthy, but since he hasn’t I have him ninth. I think Quinn’s ceiling is an above-average regular, but the injuries create more doubt that he’ll get there. Kilome has his own obstacles but also has a higher ceiling.

  12. I voted Knapp here. A lot of very interesting guys, all with some warts, bunched together here. Knapp is healthy, he can hit, and the defense is acceptable at this point. I like Quinn, but think he needs further hitting development and injuries are a big issue. I like Alfaro, but he is a little rawer, although higher ceiling, than Knapp, I like Kilome, but he still needs a lot of projection to get to where people are ranking him. These guys are all in my top 10.

  13. I’m late to the Top 30 voting this year, so I’m sure this has been litigated to death already, but I’m surprised Kilome isn’t a slam dunk here. I’d have put him at #4, in fact, over Mark Appel. Seems like the pedigree of the #1 draft pick is clouding some judgement here. I like Alfaro and Quinn too, don’t get me wrong, but by all accounts (scouts, prospect lists, my own eyes) Kilome has really electric, overpowering stuff. I’d have Appel well down my own list, personally, for reasons that I imagine have already been discussed to death.

    1. Kilome hasn’t even played full season ball yet and he hasn’t been overpowering. Appel has made aaa granted he hasn’t been great but he did pitch well in the afl in 2014. If he can find his control and command he could be a tor arm. If he can’t find enough control or command his stuff could still play up in the bull pen.

    2. How is Kilome’s stuff electric. I’ll give him that he has a very low HR rate, but neither his K-rate, BB-rate, WHIP, or ERA are at all special for a 20-year old in Williamsport. That’s not to say he’s not a very good prospect, but that is based largely upon projection and development of his pitches and command/control. None of his stats are bad, but over-powering stuff is a K-rate of 9/9 IP and Kilome is only at 6.6. His BB-rate of 3.83/9 IP is ok,nothing great.

      1. I posted this in the last round of voting too, but one indication of the quality of Kilome’s stuff is his ability to limit hard contact. He only allowed five XBHs last season and induced a lot of ground balls. He was significantly better in both of those areas than Zach Eflin, a guy who’s game depends on those skills.

        Besides, even if Kilome’s numbers weren’t good (which they are), that wouldn’t mean that he doesn’t have great stuff. Pitchers with mediocre stuff can put up great numbers in the minors.

        1. Except… Eflin did it in AA, including pitching very well in the Eastern League playoffs, in his age 21 season. KIlome did it only a year younger at age 20, but in the short-season NYP league.

  14. I like kilome too but he’s hardly been overpowering and has not even played a whole season yet. His stuff is the reason why I’d put him 7 or 8 but placing guys like that in someone’s top four solely based on potential sounds like the stuff we had to do 5 years ago. I am happy to say, those days are gone where our top prospect was in rookie ball or Williamsport.

    1. Reports I’ve seen have Kilome throwing in the high 90s with good breaking stuff. I’ve also seen him in person and he was dominating, although of course I know that doesn’t mean much. But add that to the good stats and the positive word of mouth and I think you have a pretty complete picture. As for what we used to do 5 years ago, there were obviously a lot of mistakes–but that’s true by definition of prospect lists. And really, the only player I recall being ranked really high out of rookie ball is Domingo Santana–and I don’t think that turned out to be wrong.

  15. Put it this way, if Kilome and Quinn were both free agents, who do you honk would get the bigger deal?

    Obviously Kilome and it wouldn’t be close.

    1. Question seems so indeterminate!
      Wouldn’t it be more appropriate if it were ‘Kilome and Appel’, or ‘Kilome and Thompson’?
      Pitcher to pitcher.
      For example a team like the Mets may value Quinn over Kilome and vice versa with a team like the Reds.

    2. Assuming Kilome and Quinn are both healthy and achieve their ceilings (and Kilome beckmes at least a #3 pitcher) in today’s market Kilome would make much more money. If you are change your proposition to WAR, I’d believe Quinn would project higher, unless Kilome becomes a true #1.

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