Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #5

The race for the #4 prospect in the Phillies’ organization was close.  It ended with Mark Appel edging Cornelius Randolph by 12 votes.  A record 593 votes were cast.  Appel received 184 votes (31%) followed closely by Randolph who received 172 (29%).  The real surprise was that the top two vote recipients accounted for only 60% of the votes cast.

Mark Appel was drafted 3 times before signing with the Houston Astros in 2013.  He was first drafted out of high school by the Detroit Tigers in the 15th round of the 2009 MLB June Amateur Draft.  In 2012, he was drafted in the 1st round, 8th pick overall, by the Pittsburgh Pirates.  He declined to sign and re-entered the draft in 2013 where he was the top overall pick by the Houston Astros.

Since joining the Astros’ organization, Appel has been ranked among baseball’s top 40 prospects by Baseball America, MLB, and Baseball Prospectus.

Appel has a 4-seam fastball that sits 94-95 and touches 98, a mid-80s slider, and a change-up.  All three pitches have shown plus, but he lacks command.  Appel also has a 2-seam fastball that was relegated to the back of the tool shed by the Astros.

Appel began his pro career with 2 short starts at low A Tri-City in the NYPL.  After just 5 IP, he was promoted to full-season A ball in Quad Cities in the Midwest League.  He continued his accelerated path through the organization when the Astros had him open the 2014 season with advanced A Lancaster in the California League.  After a rocky 12 starts, he was sent up to AA Corpus Christi in the Texas League.  Appel finished the season with 7 strong  starts in the Arizona Fall League.

In 2015, Appel logged over 130 IP between Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno in the PCL.  He posted a 10-3 record for the season, but his ERA was around 5.00 while his BB/9 drifted up to 3.5.  Appel’s K/9 rose from 7.0 to 8.0 with the promotion to AAA.

Reports seem to indicate that Appel still has “stuff”, but he isn’t able to throw quality strikes.  His FB has little movement and his slider tends to flatten out.  Hopefully, adding the 2-seamer back into his repertoire will revive his earlier projections.

Prospect Poll #5 will see the addition of Rhys Hoskins, Dylan Cozens, Deivi Grullon, and Edubray Ramos.  The first 4 polls have averaged 525 votes.  All 4 polls received more votes than any poll taken last year.  In order to ensure an accurate vote, I have implemented the strongest tools available to me to restrict repeat voting.  If this causes any problems let me know.

If you want to send your prospect list or request the early addition of a prospect, the e-mail addresses are –

prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject – My Prospect List

prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject – Add Prospect

Next up is your selection for the #5 prospect in the organization.

83 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #5

      1. Brad,

        I confused myself, too.

        Would have put Randolph at #5 and Hoskins at #6, but got confused by the Appel selection — had him #7 — and put Hoskins in at #5. So, going forward, I’m just going to forget Randolph, who will win #5 with me, and pick up from my original list from there. Not of any real interest to anyone, just my public mea culpa for omitting Randolph.

  1. wow yet again no walding. guys like kingery get a pass while walding suffers. he put up arguably similar stats his year which is the mark of consistency going forward

      1. he has always had the tools to be a solid player. why does projection seem to be relevant for some players but not others?

        1. It shouldn’t have to be explained, but Walding has played 4 seasons and hasn’t hit at any of the 3 levels he’s played. And unlike (Tocci) the all-projection guy I believe you are talking about, Walding has never been very young for his Leagues. He’s 23, was drafted 5 years ago, is still in A-ball and hasn’t done anything.

        2. A fair question. Walding certainly has the good glove at 3B, but the rest of his game seems meh. His bat regressed a bit in going from Lakewood to Clearwater. Since CLW and FSL provide slightly friendlier parks for hitters, this suggests he can’t handle the A+ level pitching. The only offensive plus I see is that he is drawing a very good number of walks. He’s not showing significant power, his BA has slipped, he is still striking out a ton, and he is not a base-stealing threat. He’s not a skinny kid, so what am I supposed to project in terms of offensive improvement. Where can he reasonably be expected to improve his performance through additional reps? He will get another year to show what he can do, but I can’t justify him in top 30, let alone top 5.

    1. Hey everyone, Sandusky’s back. At least he’s consistent. It’s Walding all day, all night and every minute in between.

  2. Things get interesting after this vote (well, I think things should have gotten interesting after #4, if C had won that spot, but I won’t grumble) because you can make a case for so many players, in an almost any order, for players 6-15.

    Unlike the Top 3 & C, I have questions about all of these guys. The drop-off from top 3 & C to this next tier looks to be pretty substantial. My questions about this next tier:

    Jorge Alfaro: great tools. can he put them together? he’s not young any more–needs to start producing

    Andrew Knapp: did he turn a corner, or was that late season burst a mirage? Are we voting him so high just because of one half season?

    Deivi Grullon: will he ever hit? Defense is already there.

    Darnell Sweeney: How much value is there in a reserve OF with limited upside?

    Tyler Goeddel: Is he MLB ready?

    Roman Quinn: will he amount to anything more than a speedy 4th OF?

    Dylan Cozens: will that supposed power ever arrive? A .260 hitting OF without power doesn’t have much value.

    Carlos Tocci: always the same question: will he fill out his lanky frame?

    Rhys Hoskins: the board loves him; the scouts not so much. Ruf part II?

    Scott Kingery: how much upside is there?

    Zach Eflin: Will his low strike-out numbers hurt him as he advances?

    Matt Imhof: more was expected from him last year. Can he bounce back? He’s lost ground other pitchers in the system.

    Ben Lively: didn’t look so good last year. Even more than Imhof, he needs a bounce back season in a big way. Does he have it in him?

    Tomas Eshelman: wish I knew more about him. Is his command really elite?

    Tom Windle: I probably have fewer questions about him than anyone else. I understand why he’s receiving votes. Not the highest upside as a high leverage reliever, but he looks almost ready to contribute to the big league club.

    Nick Pivetta: Will he ever improve his k/bb ratio?

    Alberto Tirado: will he ever harness that speedball of his?

    Ricardo Pinto: he’s on the right path. Can he continue this trend to the upper levels? Seems he gets overlooked, especially when you look at his number.

    Franklyn Kilome: if he’s such an amazing prospects, how come he’s never dominated any level? or even put-up good numbers yet?

    Adonis Medina: you can argue he has more upside that everyone’s favorite, Kilome. But he’s a long way away. And that’s always the question with young pitchers–will he continue to grow?

    Edubray Ramos: Could you make an argument for him over the other kids, Kilome or Medina? I don’t think I could.

    1. We’re into our “warts and all” section of our top 30. The guys picked so far and “C”, have high upsides and their floors are much higher than most prospects. But alas, we’re out of the easy part of our list. Everyone from here on out will have warts. The question is how big and horrifying are those warts and how many are there. Distance from realizing potential puts a red underline under some prospects. Who is the next Mecias? He went from top 10 last year to out of baseball. Damn injuries, ruin our top 30 every year.

      Luckily none of us will meet a firing squad because we picked Kilome over “C” or chose Windle and pushed Ramos to #25. We’ll get the occasional jab from other posters about picking Hoskins over Cozens but no one will be strapped down and given a lethal injection. Truth is you could put the names of 5 or 10 guys into a hat, from here on out, and pull one a day and do almost as well as a thoughtful, drawn out statistical review of each player. You might be able to support your choice a little better but the sun will rise tomorrow no matter what.

    2. Replies:

      Jorge Alfaro: great tools. can he put them together? he’s not young any more–needs to start producing – HE WAS HURT LAST YEAR SO HE HAS AN EXCUSE FOR THE LOW OUTPUT. MY CONCERN IS WALK RATES AND HIT TOOL – IF THOSE AREN’T TOO GOOD, THE TOOLS PROBABLY WON’T TRANSLATE TO RESULTS.

      Andrew Knapp: did he turn a corner, or was that late season burst a mirage? Are we voting him so high just because of one half season? I THINK THE HITTING IS FOR REAL, BUT NOT AT SECOND HALF AA INFLATED LEVELS. I LOVE THAT HE IS SUCCESSFULLY WORKING ON PLATE DISCIPLINE. HE GOT THE STANDARD READING BUMP SO I’M EAGER TO SEE WHAT HE CAN DO AT AAA. ULTIMATELY, HE HAS TO HAVE AT LEAST PASSABLE SKILLS AS A RECEIVER FOR HIS HITTING TALENTS TO PLAY UP.

      Deivi Grullon: will he ever hit? Defense is already there. NO IDEA IF HE WILL EVER HIT. STILL YOUNG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP.

      Darnell Sweeney: How much value is there in a reserve OF with limited upside? HE HAS INTRIGUING PHYSICAL TALENTS AND PLATE DISCIPLINE, BUT I’M NOT SURE HE HITS ENOUGH TO STICK IN THIS OUTFIELD WITH LOTS OF OTHER PLAYERS TRYING TO GET AT BATS.

      Tyler Goeddel: Is he MLB ready? THIS WAS A NEAT PICK-UP. CHECK OUT HIS LATE SEASON HITTING STATS. HE CAME ON VERY STRONG LATE IN THE YEAR. HE COULD BE FOR REAL.

      Roman Quinn: will he amount to anything more than a speedy 4th OF? YES, HE’S A SCINTILLATING TALENT IF HE STAYS HEALTHY (WHICH IS A BIG “IF”). THERE’S SPEED, HITTING ABILITY AND MORE THAN A LITTLE POWER. AND HE’S A POTENTIAL GOLD GLOVE OUTFIELDER WITH A RIFLE ARM. IF IT ALL COMES TOGETHER HE COULD STILL BE A STAR.

      Dylan Cozens: will that supposed power ever arrive? A .260 hitting OF without power doesn’t have much value. I THINK HE’S EITHER GOING TO REALLY MAKE IT OR NEVER STICK IN THE BIG LEAGUES AT ALL. IF HE PUTS IT ALL TOGETHER HE’S A CORY HART TYPE PLAYER.

      Carlos Tocci: always the same question: will he fill out his lanky frame? ULTIMATELY, IF HE GETS JUST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER, I THINK HE MAKES THE MAJORS AND IS A DECENT PLAYER, SIMILAR TO ENDER INCIARTE. THE SKILLS ARE REAL.

      Rhys Hoskins: the board loves him; the scouts not so much. Ruf part II? NOT FAIR TO COMPARE HIM TO RUF, HE’S FAR AHEAD OF WHERE RUF WAS AT THE SAME AGE AND IS A BETTER ATHLETE THAN RUF.

      Scott Kingery: how much upside is there? THIS YEAR WE’LL REALLY FIND OUT ABOUT HIM. I TEND TO DISREGARD FIRST YEAR, HALF YEAR STATS.

      Zach Eflin: Will his low strike-out numbers hurt him as he advances? I’M VERY BULLISH ON HIM. HE’S A GUY, HOWEVER, WHO NEEDS GREAT INSTRUCTION IN THE MINORS TO ACHIEVE HIS POTENTIAL. BUT WE FORGET HOW WELL HE DID AT AN EARLY AGE IN A VERY TOUGH HITTING LEAGUE – HE’S RIGHT ON SCHEDULE FOR HIS AGE.

      Matt Imhof: more was expected from him last year. Can he bounce back? He’s lost ground other pitchers in the system. HASN’T SHOWN THE COMMAND NEEDED TO PITCH WELL AT HIGHER LEVELS WITH SO/SO STUFF.

      Ben Lively: didn’t look so good last year. Even more than Imhof, he needs a bounce back season in a big way. Does he have it in him? LIVELY IS BETTER THAN LAST YEAR’S STATS MIGHT INDICATE. READING/AA IS VERY TOUGH ON GUYS WHO PITCH UP IN THE ZONE, WHICH HE DOES. ALSO, LAST YEAR, I SWEAR HALF THE PROBLEM WAS THE MANAGER LEAVING HIM IN ONE INNING TOO LONG (I WATCHED THE GAMES). HE’S A FORGOTTEN MAN, BUT HE’S A LOT BETTER THAN WE’VE GIVEN HIM CREDIT FOR ON THIS SITE. COULD MOVE QUICKLY THIS YEAR.

      Tomas Eshelman: wish I knew more about him. Is his command really elite? VERY INTRIGUING.

      Tom Windle: I probably have fewer questions about him than anyone else. I understand why he’s receiving votes. Not the highest upside as a high leverage reliever, but he looks almost ready to contribute to the big league club. HAS A VERY GOOD ARM AND A NICE SLIDER. AT WORST, HE’S A 7TH INNING GUY. AT BEST, HE FIGURE IT OUT, GOES BACK INTO THE ROTATION AND IS SIMILAR TO J.A. HAPP.

      Nick Pivetta: Will he ever improve his k/bb ratio? IF HE PUTS IT TOGETHER HE HAS A BRIGHT FUTURE. BUT IT’S A BIG IF.

      Alberto Tirado: will he ever harness that speedball of his? HARD TO SEE HIM NOT MAKING THE MAJORS IN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO. ELECTRIC STUFF.

      Ricardo Pinto: he’s on the right path. Can he continue this trend to the upper levels? Seems he gets overlooked, especially when you look at his number. I LIKE HIM, BUT IT’S HARD TO SEE WHERE HE FITS IN WITH ALL THESE STARTING PITCHING PROSPECTS.

      Franklyn Kilome: if he’s such an amazing prospects, how come he’s never dominated any level? or even put-up good numbers yet? I’M CURIOUS TOO. THE BUBBLE WRAP COMES OFF THIS SPRING.

      Adonis Medina: you can argue he has more upside that everyone’s favorite, Kilome. But he’s a long way away. And that’s always the question with young pitchers–will he continue to grow? CAN’T WAIT TO SEE HIM PITCH.

      Edubray Ramos: Could you make an argument for him over the other kids, Kilome or Medina? I don’t think I could. HE’S A RELIEVER, SO IT’S HARD TO GET MORE EXCITED ABOUT HIM THAN STARTERS KILOME AND MEDINA.

    3. These are all legitimate questions. I would love to see Kilome put up dominant stats this season to live up to all the hype. To this point, he has done nothing on the field to demonstrate his lofty prospect status. Believe me, I’m not bashing him- just want him to fulfill the promise that the experts have bestowed on him.

      Voted for C here- saw him a few times last summer and was impressed with his AB’s. Wasn’t afraid to take pitches and looked like an excellent 2 strike hitter.

      1. Kilome is the real deal guys. Trust me his stuff is nasty. He is tall throws on a downward angle and his secondary stuff is getting the same bite and location as his fastballs. He is a guy that started playing ball at 15 years old. Therefore he is still learning. The biggest thing about kilome is that he is a smart kid that is has adapted quickly. If he stays grounded and stays hungry he is going to be special. This guy is going to be our number 1. Trust me

  3. Tyler Goeddel: 22, AA, 9.0 BB%, 18.4 K%, .154 ISO, .362 wOBA, 122 RC+
    Roman Quinn: 22, AA, 7.0 BB%, 16.3K%, .129 ISO, .361 wOBA, 129 RC+

    If Tyler Goeddel was a Phillies 2011 draftee, would he get more discussion as a top 10-12 prospect.

      1. fritz…actually TG has plus speed, arm and like OH after only one year in the OF, above average defense as an OFer that is according to some of scouting reports I have seen on him..

          1. Agree.
            Goeddel physically profiles to me as an early Drew Stubbs type player. Stubbs may have had a tick more speed but when it comes to SB skills they are similar.

      2. @Fritz: I have Quinn above Goeddel as well, due to defensive value. Quinn is a CF, who can play SS in a pinch. Goeddel is a RF, who can play CF in a pinch. The defensive value and offensive “bar” is in Quinn’s favor.

        For the same reasons you have Quinn over Goeddel, I have Goeddel over Dylan Cozens. Speed and defensive value. Goeddel has similar offensive production, but can play all 3 OF positions. Cozens is a RF/1B. The. Offensive “bar” is much higher for Cozens, but he is basically the same level hitter as Goeddel.

        1. Good point about Goeddel relative to Cozens. On my list, I have Goeddel #19 and Cozens #22 for basically those reasons. I may move him up a bit.

          I have another OF, Aaron Brown, at #21. I think he gets overlooked. While I can certainly see why some (or most) would rank Cozens ahead of him, Brown should have more defensive value and hit similarly to Cozens in Clearwater, with a lower BABIP. Brown’s age works against him, but the large jump in Brown’s BB% last year is a sign that he’s capable of adjustments.

          1. I have Goeddel #13 and Cozens #16 right now. I wanted to put Aaron Brown on at #30, but couldn’t find room. I decided that his age and level makes it hard to give credit for his performance so far. But his AFL performance was encouraging.

    1. You are right about that. Stat are nominally similar, but they are very different players. I still have him a little lower than Quinn, but he’s a very fine prospect. Solid skills across the board. If any of those skills become plus, he could become a good major league player.

      1. J64…..I can see them being very different in regards to speed (Quinn-80, Goeddel-55/60) and Quinn’s exceptional base-stealing strengths. And obviously switch hitter vs RHB, but other than that what do you see the differences?

        1. @romus – IMO, we haven’t much of TG that’s probably why some of us cannot really justify a higher ranking. in my personal ranking, TG is #20 – below Quinn (#7) and Tocci (#13) but ahead of Cozens (#23), Pujols (#24) as far as OF prospects are concerned.

          My #20 ranking of TG is based purely on stats. I ranked Quinn and Tocci higher because I followed them enough where I have a better feel what they can become (on top of their CF profile).

          1. KuKo….I see that and understand, I have a similar thought process. Plus he was not even high in the Rays prospect list an their system was rated below middle of the pack, but in his defense most of that was as an infielder prior to ’15.
            I guess in a few months we will know for sure how he works out.

            1. The Rays system is rated lower than the Phillies because they don’t have the top end talent (Crawford). The Rays’ system is better than the Phillies, from #8-30. Also, Goeddel’s ranking on MLB is from the 2015 pre-season. He enhanced his stock the last 2 years, by hitting better as he went up. Similar to Knapp’s situation with the Phillies.

            2. Yes he was a 3rd baseman before he also hit 10 triple’s yr so his speed is legit .somewhere I read he could go back to 3rd he gas the arm.

          1. Thanks…understand that…otoh…..Goeddel is more versatile if you go by innings played at the corner OF positions. Goeddel’s resume is only one year’s worth of experience in the OFand a fifth of the innings played as Quinn in CF, so it is easy to subjectively give Quinn the superior defensive rating, and I think he does have that.
            But then again OHe at this time last year was another less then one-year CFer with big defensive question marks going into the 2015 season.

            1. i would love to see LF Goeddel – CF Doobie – RF Altherr in the OF for the Phils in 2016. Not saying that this trio can scare any team because it still lacks the power potential, but that should be at least a good defensive OF. if the trio can hit at least .270 and be a legit baserunning threat, that can make the Phils at least manageable to watch.

              Asche is good as gone and better for the Phils to get any value for him. after 2016, the Phils might need to protect a lot of prospects so a lot of placeholders (Asche, Ruf, Hernandez, Gomez, Neris, Garcia, etc) will be gone at the end of the 2016 season.

      1. I am not missing that point. If you read further down, you would see that I rank Quinn over Goeddel because of speed and defense. My point was to show how close Goeddel was as a hitter to Quinn.

  4. Has to be Corny here, and then the real fun starts. I am still a big Quinn fan and think his upside is a starting CF with Gold Glove potential. Health is always a concern with him but the raw skills are there.

  5. Corny should take #5 easy. I agree with some posters here that #6-10 (or to #12) will be interesting and rankings will be based pretty much on what tools and profile that you value more than others. Below is my personal Top 10 ranking.

    Kilome is pure projection and the potential cannot be denied. Quinn has a change changing speed and a proto typical lead off hitter which a lot of team covets – so there’s value to that. Knapp over Alfaro is basically due to proximity and who can contribution right aways which is Knapp. If Eflin has a higher K rate he probably ranks at #6 – stuff not far from Pinto but physical frame and proximity gives him the edge. I hope we can see Eflin for a couple of starts in 2016. If that’s in CBP, I will surely watch.

    1. J.P. Crawford
    2. Jake Thompson
    3. Nick Williams
    4. Mark Appel
    5. Cornelius Randolph
    6. Franklyn Kilome
    7. Roman Quinn
    8. Andrew Knapp
    9. Zach Eflin
    10. Jorge Alfaro

  6. Cornelius Randolph fun facts for the day:

    (Disclaimer: yes, I’m starting to sound like a lunatic Randolph supporter. But there is much to like here!)

    * Among qualified hitters in the GCL, only one had more XBH than Randolph’s 19 during the 2015 season: A Yankees 1B prospect in his fifth professional season.

    * Only one player drew more walks than Randolph’s 32: fellow 1st rounder Nick Plummer (who K’d twice as much and hit .228).

    * Only two other Phillies prospects finished with a higher GCL wOBA than Randolph’s .421 in the past ten years: J.P. Crawford (whose numbers are eerily similar to Randolph’s) and Harold Garcia (Remember him? He was 21 years old at the time).

    I think it’s entirely possible Randolph is put on the J.P. Crawford plan and starts the year at Lakewood. There’s a lot of things that can go wrong here, but he’s got the foundation to be a quick mover and a really good hitter. He and the No. 1 pick (hopefully Groome if all goes right) could be vying for top player in the system this time next year.

    1. Mike,
      Thanks. Got me looking into the past 5 years of GCL stats for 140+ AB.
      YEAR LEVEL AB H XB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
      Pullin 2012 (18) GCL 140 45 12 2 .321 .403 .436 .838
      Zier 2014 (23) GCL 142 46 10 0 .324 .415 .408 .823
      Pointer 2011 (19) GCL 169 47 22 6 .278 .353 .503 .856
      CR 2015 (18) GCL 172 52 19 1 .302 .425 .442 .866
      Crawford 2013 (18) GCL 142 49 12 1 .345 .443 .465 .906

      1. Some good years there… What makes Randolph stand out from all but JPC is his age and BB/K rate. He isn’t just hacking away and getting lucky there … He knows what he’s doing at the plate.

    2. I’d be stunned if Randolph didn’t start at Lakewood. If he stays healthy, he is on the Crawford track. As a corner OF only, how good he becomes is determined by how much power he develops. He is certainly going to hit for a good OBP.

  7. Kurt, I have no problem with your Top 10 prospects, at all, but I still can’t put Kilome that high without actual results. I put him at #10 and simply move up the others a spot.

    1. matt – your correct. Kilome is pure projection. if Eflin has higher K rate, I ranked him higher than Kilome. #6 to #12 has their own flaws and can go in many direction so it will be interesting to see the rankings in the next coming days.

      nonetheles, Kilome is will be in Top#6 to #15 regadless of how you cut it (unless the rankings will give credit to proximity) – so the fall from #6 to #15 is not that significant.

      But the most interesting prospect will be Ortiz. I had him outside of Top 30 (for NOW) and it just a matter of time. Once in see Ortiz in XST, then i will get a better feel where he will rank. My comps to Ortiz will be Pujols and/or Encarnacion.

      1. Ortiz will be one of the guys everyone wants to see in spring training. I remember when I saw LGJ for the 1st time…. Ortiz could certainly be a something but its too early to know. Kilome is all projection at this point after only a fair season at Wsport.

  8. When LGJ first got to ST he was out of shape and never looked like anything. Initial impressions were correct. What I want to see from Ortiz, as a start, is a guy who did something to get ready for ST, other than lounging around and counting his money. I want to see a guy who is taking this career seriously. I will be happy with that, and then we can watch his skill develop.

    1. this is the reason why i’m withholding my judgment on Ortiz as i have him ranked #44 in my personal Top 60 ranking – after Williams and Falter and ahead of Gilbert.

      my ranking is not against Ortiz’ skillset but the lack of actual results thereof. so my ranking is more of “just a matter of time” than upside, tools and $$ spent. i’m not sure if Jim or Matt Winks said this, but Ortiz @ 16 yo already should good plate discipline and mobility despite of his size. there are lot of good things they saw in Ortiz during the short sneak peak.

      the overall depth of the farm might make it hard for Ortiz to crack the Top 20. But if Ortiz is no LGJ, he can start to push a lot of prospects in the rankings.

      1. I was happily surprised to see the plate discipline he showed during Instructs. As a comparison, when Encarnacion batted during his first Instructs, I watched him swing at the first pitch in all 24 AB in which I was in attendance.

  9. I take some issue with the assertion that Kilome hasn’t had good results yet. More goes into the numbers than K/BB, where Kilome has been merely “acceptable”. Kilome allowed 5 XBHs last year to the 207 batters he faced, which is just 2.4% of them. By comparison, Zach Eflin allowed XBHs to 9% of the batters he faced. Kilome induced ground balls on 57% of balls in play; Eflin on 44%.

    Kilome has had low ERAs the past two years largely because he limits quality contact against him, which jibes with the scouting reports that praise his stuff. He’s a late bloomer (remember he wasn’t signed until he was 19) so his experience level is lower than it would be for most players his age. His stuff took a pretty large step forward from 2014 to 2015 and he’s still learning how to use his arsenal.

    1. I have grown tired reminding readers that Kilome participated in only his second season as a pro in 2015, did not play at either of their LA academies, sustained a rib cage injury after 3 starts, missed at least 3 starts, was on a pitch and inning counts when he returned, and may have pitched through the after effects of the injury the remainder of the season.

      It seems that people either want to over-value his potential or criticize his normal progression through the organization. There doen’t seem to be any middle ground.

      1. It’s funny because no matter where any of us see Kilome ranked I don’t think it will have any bearing on what he ultimately becomes.

        I understand we do this every year and it turns into a “your guy is better than my guy” sort of thing it’s still a ton of fun!

        1. DMAR….spot on, every year it comes down to this with specific players. Tocci was the guy last year I believe. Then awhile back it was a Biddle vs Morgan debate.
          And with Kilome, almost to a tee, every scout/analyst rate him high with more then solid tools, and based on a limited body of work. I twill be fun to see how he does this year. Still if you go by age-appropriate projected progressions, he may not see CBP until his age24/25 season, unless of course he rakes, and he gets promoted at a few half-year intervals.

        2. True. I haven’t cast a vote other than the first vote for Crawford to test the poll (and I didn’t think it would affect the outcome). So, in my case, it’s not a “my guy v. his guy” situation. I try to correct any disinformation I see. Like forgetting or not knowing that a player pitched after a serious injury.

          For the record, I don’t necessarily see the same things that people are so high on regarding Kilome. I respect the opinions of the analysts and scouts who are high on him, but it seems to me that an awful lot of that “high” came after a report of a 97 MPH FB in XST last spring. I do see something in his “make up”, but make up without an above average secondary pitch might mean little down the road.

      2. JIm,

        I know I am getting way ahead of things here, but do you have an idea of when the minor leaguers will start playing spring training games?

    2. Like most RHPs, LHHs gave him his issues in his 2015 splits.
      Not sure why it may be, but his BB rate (OBP) vs them is higher than RHHs.
      Perhaps he tried to nibble too much.

    3. Not to mention that last year he was mostly well regarded for his potential to have good stuff, but in reality was only pitching at 89-92 T94 for most of the season with a crappy slider. This year his velocity really didn’t come on strong until the Williamsport season and as Jim noted (in addition to your stats above) that he was injured midway through the season. Not to mention his secondary pitches are a work in progress, no one is arguing he is a complete pitcher. If he had actually dominated Williamsport while showing consistency he might be the #2 prospect in the organization

    4. Handzus…..according to MLB, Kilome was 17 years old when he signed.
      Five months shy of his 18 birthday. Still older then most LA signees.

  10. If everything goes right with Randolph, he’s the second-coming of Bobby Abreu, hopefully without the fear of outfield walls and with a greater sense of urgency. He’s a breakout candidate for sure.

    1. No, no, no. People consistently undervalue Abreu. He had a high BA, a high walk rate, good HR as well as alley power, AND was fast and a base-stealer. One thing Randolph will never be is a fast guy who can steal bases. The reports on his OF defense are not that he is a plus defender, although I suppose he might develop into one. In all likelihood, he is no better and possibly not as good, defensively as Abreu was In terms of power, I guess he could get there, but Abreu power is pretty much the ceiling for Randolph. If he doesn’t have Abreu’s speed and fails to develop as much power as Abreu had, then Randolph — good as he is — is not going to be Abreu’s equal in OBP either. That is not a knock on Randolph, as Abreu was simply the best OBP guy to play in Philadelphia in the modern era.

      ‘greater sense of urgency’ is b.s. propagated by announcers taking their cue from Phillies execs who were too ignorant to appreciate the value of taking a walk. They talked as if Abreu was not a good RBI guy, but even a cursory look at the records reveals that Abreu was quite a good RBI guy and an excellent runs scored guy.

      If Randolph comes even close to being Abreu without the speed, then we made an excellent pick and a lot of teams who picked ahead of us will be kicking themselves. Abreu had the sort of career that teams would happily accept from a 1.1 pick. To say you want Abreu but with urgency and no fear of walls as the development endpoint for Randolph quite frankly strikes me as ignorant.

      1. I think Abreu is the most underrated player of the past 25 years. Seriously, if you think that’s a crazy idea just look at the numbers he put up . . he was very good for a long time, VERY GOOD.

  11. It does get tougher at this point.

    I have not seen Kilome or Randolph play but both have a lot of upside and still a while to see how it plays in the upper levels.

    I got to watch Knapp and he was on fire last year so its easy to be biased towards him. Alfy has all the upper prospect grades and we will get to see if he is a top 5 guy this year.

    I watched Roman the past couple years when he was not hurt. To me he is a top 5 guy if he can stay on the field.

    This was tough but I went with the upside of Randolph.

  12. off topic – MLB declared Lazarito and Arozarena free agents under current season. I wonder if the Phils will busy the IFA limit to get them. if they can’t Maitan in July 2016 – I say go get Lazarito!

    1. KuKo…I thought the Braves had already have the inside track on Maitan,
      As for Lazaro Armenteros and Azorarena, do you really think the Phillies will be breaking the limit to sign one of them? With the number one alloxation money I do not think they will incur any penalty….unless the players are willing to wait until July before signing. But doubt that……the usual suspects will offer them big dollars.

      1. i heard the rumors about Maitan going to the Braves and I’m disappointed with the Phils. But i’m still crossing my fingers that the new FO can outbid ATL come July 2nd.

        if Lazarito will wait until July 2nd, then, the Phils should go for it.

        personally, i preferred Moncada than Lazarito, but i think that Phils should not missed any opportunity to add premium talent especially if $$ is the only cost for it. I like the Phils to flex their financial muscle in the international market especially when some of the key players are not around.

        Sal’s team already did a very good job in stockpiling LA talents with the resources they have. what more if the FO will provide more resources ($$) to Sal’s team.

    2. Lazarito didn’t get good reviews in his showcase. They said he definitely can’t play CF. Too stiff and bulky.

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