Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #2

To the surprise of no one, J.P. Crawford was the overwhelming selection as the top prospect in the Phillies’ organization.  Crawford garnered 91% of close to 500 votes.

Last year, Crawford finished with 89% of the vote when he was selected the number one prospect over Maikel Franco.  This year, the runner up was “Other” with a little over 2%.   Mark Appel was the closest player with 1% of the vote.  Crawford is the first player to repeat as the top prospect since Domonic Brown in 2010 and 11. I don’t know what that means. Let’s hope nothing.

Crawford began the season in May at Clearwater due to a spring training injury.  He posted a remarkable .392/.489/.443/.932 in 21 games with the Threshers and was promoted to Reading before the end of the month where he slashed .265/.354/.407/.761 while batting second most games. Crawford walked more than he struck out at each level (14 to 9 at A+, and 49 to 45 at AA). In three professional seasons, Crawford has walked 160 times and struck out 163 times in 1266 plate appearances (1088 AB).  He committed 27 errors across both levels with a fielding percentage of .953 during the 2015 season.

Crawford was invited to the Arizona Fall League but left after 5 games when he injured his thumb while applying a tag.  He suffered a “very slight tear” of the UCL ligament in his left thumb.  No surgery was required and Joe Jordan reported in a statement back on October 29th, that Crawford would be 100 percent healthy before spring training.

Next up is your section for the #2 prospect in the organization.

83 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #2

    1. Thompson for me. He’s the best pitcher in a very strong pitcher’s group. Williams looks great here but I have him at #3 on my top 30.

    2. Not sure which reports you are reading, but a AA player with a 70 hit tool (w 55 power) from multiple scouts is much better than a pitcher with a #3 ceiling.

    1. For me it’s a question of ceiling. Most experts have Thompson as a ceiling of 2/3, while we’ve been seeing a 70 hit took being thrown around for Williams and a ceiling of all star outfielder. It’s close, but I’ll take a guy with all star potential playing everyday over a pitcher who’s in between a 2/3 ceiling.

      1. I agree. It’s close for me, but I have Williams slightly ahead of Thompson in the rankings, with Appel a distant 4th.

    2. I’m not sure we can infer bias when both BA and BP prefer Williams over Thompson. I voted for Williams too. There have certainly been toolsy outfielders that we’ve all been too high on in the past, but I’m trying not to let that bias me in the other direction. Williams has a higher ceiling than Thompson, his approach and production at the plate are improving along with his advancing levels, he’s still young for his level, and he offers significant value on the base paths and with his defense, especially in a corner outfield spot when paired with someone like Herrera, Quinn, or Tocci.

      I’m really excited about Williams. His developmental trajectory reminds me of Altherr’s, in that guys with their tools can elevate their stock as they put things together, even while their competition is steadily improving at each level. I think Williams is one player in the system that we could see lift himself into the next future value tier if he continues to make improvements this year, especially with his offensive approach, just like Altherr did last year a little further down the spectrum.

    3. At the heart of the matter, what does it matter? Can you picture a hockey team, in evaluating its prospects, comparing its forwards against its goalies? If there’s a value in this exercise, and I’m not sure there is, it’s bringing to mind the development of prospects some of us might not have an eye on. But whether Nick Williams is rated above Jake Thompson or the other way around, the sun will still come up tomorrow.

    4. There is a bias towards potential future all star outfielders and against pitchers with a mid-rotation ceiling. If Thompson had the command or a 3rd pitch to project to the top of the rotation, he would probably be rated higher than an OF with 4 above average to plus tools.

      1. I know its a contrarian opinion, but I do value floor. And Thompson has the higher floor.

        I’m not anti-WIlliams–I have him 4th–but I see more question marks with him than with Thompson.

  1. Close here between Williams and Thompson. I went with Williams because he is an everyday player. Both should be in Philadelphia before the end of this season.

  2. I’ve seen them both and I prefer Thompson. Williams next–he may need to endure some struggles at AAA more than Thompson.

  3. I don’t fault anyone for voting for Williams or Thompson. They are both solid prospects. They were both 21 through the 2015 season. Both were taken in the 2nd round in 2012 out of High School. Damn, they might be the same guy except one’s a pitcher and one’s an CF’er.

    Thompson’s K/9 was down last year but if you’re looking for excuses: he’s 21 and in AA already, He was traded twice in a year so multiple pitching coaches talking in your ear. New places to start over.

    Williams Achilles Heal is Ks. He’s K’ed over 21% since he came to the Phillies and around 20% in AA before that. Excuse: Traded player who is still 21 yo in AA.

    I think they’ll both start in AAA so their weaknesses aren’t slowing progression. Pick one and you probably can’t go wrong.

    1. bellman1…look a little closer into his K%…..splits for ’15 vs RHP was 17.5% and though SSS, it was 23.5% vs LHP. He just needs to face lefties more and maybe can bring that number down a bit, plus like you mentioned his young age in AA..

  4. Went with Williams here.He will probably be a good everyday player and with his upside he has a chance to be a star.

  5. I have Williams just ahead of Thompson but its very close, as it appears it is for most. I just see Williams as a possible #3 hitter (the only apparent one in our system at this point) and that has value to me. If Thompson is a legit #2 guy however, its a tough call between them but I’d be happy with that problem. However, people forget that Thompson’s numbers last year before he got here were not good while Williams hit well all year.

  6. Went with Thompson but will be glad if Williams is the one. We’ll see how he fares against AAA pitching.

    As for Jim noting that Crawford is the last consecutive Number One since Dom Brown, there is one big difference: Crawford has baseball instincts, Brown doesn’t. Brown also never figured out how to get under a fly ball.

  7. I agree with Murray. I see Williams as a possible #3 hitter, and so have him over Thompson, but it is certainly close. I loved Thompson before the Tigers traded him and was thrilled that we got him. So he is easily #3 for me.

    1. matt13…at some point in the not so distant future, Randolph and Williams could be hitting back-to-back at 2 and 3 in the order.

        1. With that on base percentage and ability to work a count without striking out? He’s gotta be my lead off hitter! I want him approaching 700 at bats a season. He’s like a jimmy Rollins with better on base skills, minus a little speed and power, but doesn’t sacrifice that much in those categories

          1. I wouldn’t bet the house that his power won’t eventually be as good as Rollins, at least as compared to league norms. You’re certainly correct about the speed, though.

            1. Agreed, jimmy usually hovered around 15-20 homers and Crawford should be able to stay in that range once he develops. But that 2007 year of 30 hr and 20 triples? Doubt JP has that kind of season in him, but who else in history has?

        1. You’re right…. I guess you have to work Franco in there somewhere, and then hopefully Alfaro will be the clean up hitter(fingers crossed). One of Williams or Randolph might have to bat 5 or 6 if we want to balance the phuture lineup. Knowing we have 5-6 young bats in the system (and one at the mlb level) that can bat near the top and middle of the order is exciting. Let’s hope it pans out

        2. DMAR…….I guess Hoskins, or even Alfaro/Knapp will have to be in there somewhere to bring up the lefty parade! And lest we forget Odubel may still be in there also.

      1. Romus, that is really something to look forward to! Crawford at leadoff, and Franco at Cleanup, at least that is how it looks now.

      2. One of them has to learn how to play RF because neither is a CF and they can’t both play LF. I’m still hoping for Quinn to play CF and lead off by then with JP 2nd, Randolph or Williams 3rd, Franco 5th, Williams or Randolph 6th, our catcher 7th and 2b 8th. It has the potential to be a decent lineup if we can find a legit power hitting 1b to bat 4th. Will it be Hoskins? Will it be a free agent? will it be someone from a trade?

        1. If balance means everything to you, then how about this as a potential lineup: Quinn Crawford Franco Williams Hoskins Hererra Alfaro/Knapp 2b

      3. @romus – if that time comes, who will be playing LF and CF? I assume Corny will be LF and Williams is CF which means Doobie and Quinn are out.

        1. KuKo…good question. Williams may not be as good a defensive CFer as Herrera. Quinn or even Tocci, so his bat would really have to play out for him to be out there.
          Though it will be a good problem to have if they all turn out as we hope.

          1. i remember i asked the same question with Matt Winks about the LF situation in 2019. He mentioned that Williams can move to CF (despite of Doobie, Quinn and Tocci in the pipeline) but that’s a good problem to have if the Phils get there.

            I actually thought of possibly trading Doobie + SP to Cubs for Soler (to play RF) so the the Cubbies can move Heyward back to his natural position of RF and have Doobie as their CF.

  8. So far the Top is going exactly like mine. I got Thompson here but the fact that its Thompson then Williams or Williams then Thompson this Hamels deal could be a HUGE win for Phils!

    1. I agree. This debate of Williams vs. Thompson at the #2 slot is testimony to the return in the Hamels trade.

      1. This Hamels trade wasnt so good. An number #1 for a number #3, number #4/5, bullpen arm, average MLB outfielder, average catcher (doubtful).

        1. 3 years of a #1 pitcher @ 75 million traded for 6 years of a #3, 6 years of a plus OF, 6 years of a #5 and 6 years of an average catcher, all @ league minimum.

  9. I’ve also got Williams here, a little bit ahead of Thompson. There’s a clear drop-off after JP; everybody now has a hole somewhere, but Williams has one of the highest ceilings in the system and is coming off of a strong year in AA where he showed improvement in his area of greatest weakness.

    I think he’ll go through an adjustment period in AAA, but if his hit tool is as good as some think, he could end up being a middle-of-the-order hitter with above average defense.

    1. A log jam at catcher is building for Phillies
      Ruiz and Rupp with possibly Arencibia in the majors.
      Spring invites to Knapp, Lino, and Moore with the latter 2 being very good defensively. Those 3 project to be in AAA with possibly Knapp getting playing time in OF/1B. That doesn’t even count for Alfaro who is likely to start in AA but could be in AAA quickly if healthy and producing. Of course Lino or Moore could be bounced back to AA despite being qualified for AAA.

      1. Bob what logjam. Rupp, moore and lino, ruiz all stink. you could cut them today and not lose anything. I always thought a log jam was three good players or more at a position

        1. rocco……why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

      2. @Bob – I assume you refer to “depth” rather than a “logjam”. Knapp and Alfaro are very good prospects but with some concerns with their ability to stay @ C. Grullon will be a prospect to watch @ C if he improves his offensive ability.

        I consider Lino and Moore more of Org depth as back up profile but I’m higher than most with regards to Austin Bossart. I like Bossart’s game calling and hitting abilities.

        1. I agree, I was just going to add Bossart’s name to the conversation. I think there’s a good chance they jump the college guy up to CWater and leave Grullon to repeat Lwood. Bossart will get his chance

        1. I think it’s presumptuous to count Lino out at his age in AAA. I remember a guy in this thread that assumed Marson was going to eventually take Ruiz’s spot. Never count out good defense Catchers.

  10. For argument’s sake, let’s assume Williams and Thompson are similar ceiling and probability. If that’s so, then The hitter is always a better prospect than the pitcher. Pitchers get greater injury risk and only play 1 out of 5 games.

    I happen to think Williams has higher ceiling although maybe a lower floor.

    1. So many pitchers get injured, that it is hard to think of them having a floor. I think above a certain level of ability, most pitching prospects who remain healthy get to the majors and those who fall by the wayside due to injury greatly outnumber those who fail because they don’t develop the rest of the way. With hitters, I think the proportions reverse, with failure to finish developing appropriately being a larger cause of flameout than injury.

    2. I agree about favoring hitters over pitchers due to injury risk, but I don’t like the argument that pitchers only play 1 in 5 games. In that one game they play, they’re the most important player on the team.

    3. @v1 – I can see your logic, but seeing how a SP cost in FA and propsects in the market right now, I think I will value pitcher more especially the ones who has the physical projection to maximize their tools and durable to eat innings. With this reason, I voted for Thompson over Williams.

  11. what’s so nice here is that we already had two solid players graduate.. haven’t had that in awhile. Before Nola/Franco, when is they last time we added two solid major leaguers in one year?

    I went with Williams but it is somewhat of a coin toss. A good problem to have

    1. Very true. How about this for an exercise… Let’s rank the guys with a possible long term phuture that don’t qualify as prospects. I’ll go with 1.Nola 2.Franco 3.Velasquez 4.Hererra 5.Eickhoff 6.Altherr 7.Rupp 8.Hernandez

  12. Picked Williams here because both he and Thompson have success and proximity in common but the ceiling, as described better than I could by others, gives Williams the edge for me. A middle of the order bopper trumps a 2/3 starter if they both reach the expected outcomes.

  13. Appel here, its easy. He was the 1st overall pick in the draft, he is a frontline starter and throws 95 – 97 mph with a plus slider and he has a real good frame. Way ahead of Thompson whose slider is not as good as what people think.

    1. All of his pitches are inconsistent, his changeup has gone backwards from draft time, his command is spotty and hitters pick his pitches up well. He’s not the same prospect he was when he went #1 overall.

  14. Think Thompson 2 A Williams 2 B like to see what Williams does in AAA and Thompson does at one place 4 awhile. He moved a lot last yr he’s still young. Ever think if Kingery does come along fill out his 60 hit tool and 60 speed . They jumped him to low A where he held own At Lakewood where nobody really hits . He was at the top of college baseball in hitting all last yr. Plus he only 21 and a former walk on its going to be fun making out line up next few years.

    1. Tim…he was not quite on the top, nut near the top at eleventh.
      1 Kevin Kaczmarski Evansville Sr. OF .465
      2 Donnie Dewees North Florida Jr. OF .422
      3 Jensen Park Northern Colo. Sr. OF .422
      4 Melvin Rodriguez Jackson St. Sr. INF .421
      5 Sean Trent Navy Jr. INF .407
      6 Caleb Howell Eastern Ill. Sr. OF .407
      7 Tyler Follis North Dakota Sr. INF .404
      8 Chris Robinson Morehead St. Sr. C.402
      9 Zach George Arkansas St. Sr. INF .399
      10 Drew Ferguson Belmont Sr. OF .397
      11 Scott Kingery Arizona Jr. INF.392

      1. He lead it for awhile then lost it, I’ll take . 392 any day several reports have his arm as a plus too . He a line drive hitter with speed let’s see what he can do in Clearwater.

    2. Kingery was at the top of college hitting, but he also was waaaay on top in BABIP in college. His BABIP was something like .495, off the top of my head.

      1. .405 he hit everything I think he had 19 k’s yeah a little high he made contact all yr.will see its nice to have prospects that maybe all coming together

  15. So Appel is your number 1 even with his ERA of 5, just because he was a number 1 pick. For his current ability he is not in the top 10.

  16. Hoping Kingery lives up to his pre-draft indications. He led off in college and really set the table well for the following hitters. I am not so sure that Quinn will turn out to be invulnerable to further injuries that have threatened his career so far; if he doesn’t ” do right,” then Kingery could well fit that role in 2-3 years.

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