Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #3

In what began as a very close race, Nick Williams pulled away only to watch Jake Thompson close late.  Williams posted a 228-218 victory as the organization’s #2 prospect. Williams received 44.7% of the over 500 votes cast. Thompson received 42.7% of the vote.

Williams posted a combined .303/.354/.491/.845 in 2015 that was bolstered by his .320/.340/.536/.876 in Reading.  Williams exhibits power to all fields.  But he is a free swinger who doesn’t walk much.  However, he lowered his 2014 K% from 30.97% to 20.4% in 2015.

Williams 10 vote victory is the closest vote we’ve had since Odubel Herrera edged Aaron Altherr for #15 last year.  Herrera edged Altherr 66 to 61 with 23% of the vote.  The closest top ten vote we’ve had was between Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco for #2 last year.  In that vote Nola garnered 203 votes (47%) to Franco’s 189 (44%).

Next up is your section for the #3 prospect in the organization.

70 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #3

  1. Thompson here again this easy can’t wait until 10 tour 20. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=scott-kingery The Kingery stats I did make a mistake he was the pack 10 batting Champ and player of the yr. He wasn’t the Div 1 hitting Champ my bad . I didn’t know Cozens and Kingery were from the same area . Kingery and Cozens were BA national team as high school players. Also the Phillies have 3 all American from last yr K Mart , Kingery , and Eshelman . Sorry to much info starting Reading about Kingery and last yr draft.

    1. Tim….in all fairness…Kingery though 11th on the list, the above 10 players were from conferences less superior in competitive balance pitching then the PAC12 conference. So of the bigtime conferences with superior pitching….ACC, Big Ten, SEC, PAC12 and Big12…he was on top of the leader board.

      1. Lol I know but 2 of those players that were on that list made 1 of the All American teams Catcher and 2 baseman I think . I have no idea about if they were drafted. Bty baseball Betsy has a lot nice things to say about Hoskins. The catcher Logan Morgan I think that’s his name is doing very well in the his LA league.Cozens is doing good he stayed hot. This spell check will not let me spell catcher.

  2. Part of the reason I value Thompson over Williams is floor. Thompson’s a good bet as anyone to have, at a minimum, a productive MLB career. There are still holes in Williams’ game, like his K rate.

    I know people prefer sexy upside to practical floor; and I know people value position players more than pitchers, since they play in more games; but that’s why I have Thompson over Williams.

    its not like I don’t like him–I have him 4th, with Randolph 3rd.

    1. I also value position players over pitchers because of injury risk. I don’t think I give a ton of weight to that, but enough to tip the scales sometimes.

      As for this particular contest, Williams vs Thompson, Williams floor is also decently high because he plays a premium defensive position pretty well. If you don’t believe in the bat, it’s still easy enough to see a 4th OF as his floor, so it’s not like he’s a big candidate to completely bust. Sure, it could still happen. I just don’t see that as enough of a downside to put him below Thompson.

      I saw Thompson pitch in the playoffs here in Bowie this September and he was as impressive to me as Aaron Nola was the year before. Nola had an off night of sorts, and you could see why he was ticketed for a quick rise to MLB, and I’m certainly not saying Thompson is a better prospect now than Nola was a year ago, but it’s fairly close, IMO. Thompson worked with poise and confidence that night and kept a decent Bowie lineup guessing all night. I think he’ll be a mid-rotation workhorse for a long time if he stays healthy, and for me, he’s easily #3 in this system.

        1. Knapp was in the lineup, but I can’t recall 100% of caught pr DHed. Would have been EL championship game 3 or 4 if you care to look for the boxscore.

            1. Ty very much Jim I did get too Happy to see Knapp can call a pressure game . Like to see him hit this yr about 80% what he did last yr.

      1. As I said in a previous thread, I just really like Randolph. And its extremely rare for me for like a low-level hitter. I’m as shocked as anyone =)

  3. Top 5 should make it anyway Thompson was a beast in the Reading playoffs. Reading is a hitters league and Thompson did very well there. Willams can hit anything he needs a little more time.

  4. It’s Thompson for me again. Williams is deserving of the #2 slot, even though I picked Jake #2. I have Randolph #4 and Kilome #5 right now but #5 through #10 could be decided by putting the names of the next best 5 guys in a hat and pull them one by one. It’s a good thing.

  5. Thank you for doing this, I really appreciate it and, like others, I find Thompson and Williams to be very closely ranked so, of course, voted for Thompson. That said, how do you have a list with the likes of Darnell Sweeney, Tom Windle, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Thomas Eshelman (who I like a little but hasn’t done anything yet in professional baseball) and Matt Imhof and not include Rhy Hoskins? He’s been one of the chronically most underrated prospects in the history of this site.

    1. J64….possibly because many blog sites follow lead reports form analysts from BA/BP/MLB.
      Hoskins is a ‘RHB-1B’…..will not show up on any rankings until after AA ball is completed, that is, if he ‘rakes’.
      He needs a plus-plus in both Hit and Power tool to be ranked prior to that.
      Might not seem fair, but that is the philosophy they employ and adhere to. I have to assume it is based on good empirical data from the past.

      1. That assumes you buy that rating matrix with respect to right-handed first baseman and i do not – not entirely

        1. catch….they have been utilizing that thought process for a long time. Not just RHB 1B, but also to a lesser degree RHBs in general. Heck, Mike Piazza had 1500 PAs in the minors , and a Sept call up before they ranked him all the way up to 38 prior to his official rookie MLB year. Not even a sniff prior to ’93.
          Look I can give a list a foot long of impact MLB RHBs that were not ranked in the top 100, and that is just the last 10 years worth.
          That must have some knowledge that most do not make it.

      2. Hoskins he’s a hitter first he could hit for a high avg and power . Be like a mix of Freeman and a Gonzalez. He also a good defensive player.

        1. To me…he lies somewhere between a Darin Ruf and a Paul Goldschimdt …maybe Dr Strangeglove! 🙂

    2. Hoskins the most underrated in the history of this site? I disagree. As many mentions as he gets per day, being a non-top 10 prospect in A ball, I’d say he he has been slightly over-rated on the site by a lot of people.

      1. myself included…just like a stock disclaimer past history is not indicative of future results I can’t penalize Rhys for Rizz and Ruf.

        K% under 18% BB% near 10% OBP .395 OPS 913 as a 22 y/o over 2 levels of A ball remarkably consistent at each and nearly identical SS at each.

        I’m not concerned with being fair or not just that the site blaze it’s own trail and not pander to what BA and BP says.

      2. I always seem to make at least one typo in each post. On the one above, I said “slightly over-rated”. Should have removed ” slightly “

    3. As someone who will have Hoskins “low” on his prospect list I will put it this way. Even if Hoskins does what he has done so far in the majors he is a 25 home run a year first baseman. That is cool and fun, but that is most likely a 2-3 win player at his peak. If he is below that you get close to a platoon player (which is still a good major league asset) and being RH puts him on the wrong side of the platoon. Compare that to a player like Nick Pivetta who dominated the same level as Hoskins, at the same age and has bigger tools, but also because of his position has a better landing spot (the bullpen) if he struggles in the higher levels. I wouldn’t say that anyone is underrating Hoskins, in the same way that no one underrated Giles as a prospect or is underrating Cordero. We acknowledge the tools and the stats, but we are also pragmatic and see the risk and potential upside for Hoskins. Also the system is incredibly deep down to at least #20 and the differences are incredibly slight, so someone saying Hoskins is 12 and someone else saying he is 20 might not actually be a big gap and both people might have the exact same opinion on him and his future.

      There are certainly players on the ballot who will be lower than Hoskins, but right now that isn’t really important. As someone with experience putting together the voting list for this activity, I am sure Jim grabbed a list from somewhere just to get names for the first few days while the top names clear out.

      1. Matt, if Hoskins were to hit 25 homers in a year like last year, he would be part of a company of 41 players — all but one of whom had at least 434 abs. Without reason to think last year is atypical, if Hoskins displays power at that level, he will be a regular. If he projected power at a level of 15 HRS for a full season, then I take your point about being a platoon option.

    4. J64,

      If you’re asking how I include “Darnell Sweeney, Tom Windle, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Thomas Eshelman, and Matt Imhof and not include Rhy Hoskins”, I explained in the first article that I was using the 22 players who populated the two industry lists out at the time – the top 20 from MLB’s top 30 and BA’s top ten.

      If you’re asking how the industry lists can exclude Hoskins, I can’t say for sure but I’m sure it has to do with his position and right-handedness.

      This is a cumbersome process. I have to enter every name individually into each poll. Hoskins and others will make into the polling process. FWIW, Hoskins is in the first batch of additions. He was among only three suggestions I received via e-mail. I haven’t really seen any in the Comments section, and I stopped paying attention to the Other vote already.

      1. Jim you do have a write in sec for anyone who wants to ad a player. It’s so early in the process And some of the prospects are so close that’s the fun now we have prospects.

  6. Ok the easy part is over. I doubt we’ll see 40 percent of the votes go to another player from here on out

      1. I don’t know, I think there could be enough Appel’s, Kilome’s, Quinn’s, Knapp’s and Alfaro’s to stop him.

        1. Based on recent tone of the board, I’ll go out on a limb and predict not Rys Hoskins and Cozens get voted in ahead of Franklyn Kilome.

  7. What are you guys’ thoughts on Kilome vs. Randolph? I need convincing one way or the other.

    1. Since they’re both in the low minors, proximity gets knocked out of the equation and I move to focus mostly on upside. Kilome has the upside of 1/2. To me that is higher than a guy that has one great tool (hit) and average to below average other tools. I love Corny, but Kilome just has too much upside to ignore. Left fielders can be found a lot easier than aces. The risk is higher in Kilome but I’m over it lol

    2. BP has Kilome over Randolph and their line of thinking makes some sense. If what the scouts say about both players remain true, then Kilome is more valuable. A #2 starter is worth more than a LF with limited power. The counter point would be Randolph easily has the higher floor, because its almost a given he will be a major league hitter and there is way more work to be done with Kilome.

    3. I have Kilome, largely because of ceiling. It says something that a lot of people see him as our highest ceiling pitcher even with all of the other arms in the system.

      I like Randolph a lot, but even though I’m pretty confident that he’ll hit, it’s still good to remember that he’s only been through rookie ball. His floor is probably higher than Kilome’s but it’s not like he’s a shoe-in for a ML career either.

    4. Randolph is a top-10 pick who had a 15%/15% BB/K rate in rookie ball as an 18-year-old. No hitter in the GCL had a higher wOBA (.421) or wRC+ (163). When he turns 19 (not until June of next season), he will likely already occupy LF in Lakewood.

      Kilome is two years older, posted FIP of 3.80 and 4.02 in two years of short-season ball, and is likely going to start at the same level as Randolph. Kilome has great stuff from all reports, but if a front-line starter really is his ceiling, I would imagine it will be a looooong ride up, considering his results as a pro so far.

      Randolph, simply put, looks like a hitting machine. It’s rare to draft a HS kid and have him come in and immediately own the league. (Which is exactly what he did, according to advanced statistics). And considering that he will still be 18 when next season starts, there is no reason to think he can’t develop power, which would put him into the next stratosphere.

      Vote Cornelius!

      http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=17&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0

      1. Agree…his 1::1 K/BB alone is noteworthy, plus the fact Yankees’ Martini who also is the only one similar, is 4 years older. He may not hit the HRs at Lakewood but still think he will hit a plus amount of XBHs with his gap hitting skills..

  8. Thompson here of course. I then have it as Knapp Randolph Appel. When I look at Randolph I see a Tony Gwynn type of profile in LF as opposed to RF.

    When I look at Kilome I hear the talk about his FB and his body type but I still see the existing body of work was just WPT as a 20 y/o and he was good but he wasn’t dominating. Kilome is 10 on my board.

    If he is a 1/2 then I expect by June he is in CLW showing that!

    1. Sorry for this distraction, but the Royals resigning Alex Gordon eliminates an additional sandwich pick after the first round. The Phils’ 2.1 pick moved up by one player. OK, back to the rankings.

      1. that would only be if he was signed by a team that was top 10 protected or had already given up its first round pick with another signing, right?

        1. No. The Phillies benefit whenever any (non-midseason traded) player who declined the qualifying offer, signs with his own team. That means one less compensation pick at the end of round 1. That means the Phillies’s #2 is higher.
          Kansas city’s and Seattle’s Free agency worked out for the Phillies because their qualified players re-signed with their own teams.

    2. DMAR…..touché.
      If Kilome does very well his first three months at Lakewood, ie WHIP 6.5/9, then he could be ‘ da man’.
      He could be one to use your formula on, come this season.

        1. His KWHIP factor is 5.01 that is well below Adonis Medina’s 6.45 for instance or only slightly below Pintos 5.81 or Arano’s 5.50. Below Appels 5.48.

          We keep throwing about these “he is a 1/2 potential guy” without looking at real 1/2 guys stats at that level. Vincent Velasquez at 20 at a higher level comparatively was a 8.54.

          Again I’m not trying to beat down Kilome. I have him ahead of Medina and Arano and behind Pinto and Appel.

  9. I am not used to having all these great prospects to choose. Since Mcphail took over the Phils have gone from near the bottom to near the top of the best farm systems in baseball. 2017 will be a great year…..

      1. Theoritically Amaro did started it. But it is out of necessity because even a blind person can see how the wheels fell so bad. Even if Amaro theortically started it, Amaro lost the opportunity to get better returns since he pushed the button 2-3 years too late (i.e. Lee in 2013, Howard, Utley and Rollins in 2012, etc).

        I’m not sure if it is on Amaro or just on LAD FO being generous (because they did also gave up Heaney for 1-yr of Kendrick) – Phillies was able to get some of value from Hernandez (Arano, Valentin), Rollins (Eflin, Windle) and Utley (Richy, Sweeney).

  10. Where is Fritz our resident pitching guru. I have another stat formula I’ve developed that I would like to have tested.

    For now I call it a dominance index. It might be fuey it might be real but here is the formula

    H/9-K/9 Divided by WHIP the lower the result the more dominant the pitcher (I have found thus far)

    Hamels minor league dominance index was a negative -7.41. Kyle Kendricks was a positive 5.18 Brett Myers was a +1.43 and Aaron Nola was a +.585

    Kilome is a +2.98 Vincent Velasquez is -2.42; Jake Thompson is is +.909.

    Historical reference Roger Clemons in the minors was a -5.40 more recent Jake Arrieta Minors Dominance Index was a +.326

    Chew on that for a bit…

    1. There’s a tipping point at zero. A better WHIP improves the result if K>H, but it makes it worse if H>K, assuming you want a lower result, regardless of + or -.

      1. Ok let’s have some fun with it and see. I’m going to give you the 2 top Cy Young guys from each league and you rank their 2015 season in order of dominance.

        Arrieta
        Greinke
        Keuchel
        Price

        Once complete we’ll apply the index and see how far off it is.

      2. DMAR…..the WHIP mixes in command and control elements with the BB/9 component.. Take for example, HoF Greg Maddux, and his an outlier for sure under this formula, his H/9 (8.5) and S/9 (6.1) were not plus, WHIP however of a plus 1.143, but if I am doing the formula correctly, he ended up with a +2.09.

        1. We are on the same page Romus. Maddux was the first guy I looked up to test the theory my program calculated a 3.16 for him but if I do it manually it was 2.09.

          Come to find I had an error in my excel formula. I missed a bracket Which means my posted numbers above are off.

          Rats….

            1. The good news for Kilome is it moves him ahead of Arano with a 1.56

              It’s also showing plenty of fools gold. I don’t think it would convince many here that Severino is still a prospect nor a Leiter or a Lively LOL

            2. DMAR….they seem to be pitcher’s with good control and lower BB/9, thus lower WHIPS.
              Perhaps you need to give a ‘ valued- weight’ to each of the three separate components.
              Take for example SIERRA…… basically it adds in many different aspect of complexity attempting to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. Not sure if it it is anymore predictive than FIP however.

          1. Not all that much changes though the more your index is above 0 the less dominant (in theory) the pitcher.

  11. Dmar, I don’t know if your formula works, but it is certainly interesting to study, and I applaud you for it. Velasquez may be better than he is being given credit for, although he is pretty highly regarded as is. Where would he be if he was eligible for the Prospect Rankings? Ahead of everyone except JP?

    1. Velasquez seems to be a mid-rotation starter if he is healthy. The big knock on him is that he hasn’t been healthy enough and that future health can’t be counted upon. He’s primarily a reliever, who’s had to do some relieving because of his injuries, and has been a pro for 6 years and gone over 90 IP in a season only once, peaking at 125 IP back in 2013. He has always had a ton of Ks in the minors and translated that to better than 9 K/9 IP in MLB last year, but has never gotten his walk rate down to where it ought to be. Three and a half walks per 9 innings just isn’t good enough. Among other things, combined with the high K-rate, it is going to have him throwing a lot of pitches per inning.

  12. It will be lots of fun watching Valesquez, Thompson, Appel and Eflin fight at LHV for the major league spots that will hopefully open up in July when one or two of our new veterans gets traded away. The same could be true in the bullpen if one of the older arms (Hernandez, Garcia, Gomez, Bailey) does well enough to be desired by other teams. Cordero, Roibal, Windle, and Neris will be looking to get called up.

    1. I agree with you but I think we’ve seen enough of Neris so (Edubray) Ramos is the better BP arm to watch since he can be a potential replacement to Giles. Ramos, Cordero and Windle has the make of a solid late inning BP arm with Arano, Munoz and deNato waiting in line next year. Robert Tasin is another BP arm of interest that might be in the fast track because of this age but I’ll withhold any judgment until I see him perform in A+/AA.

      I put Neris, Hinojosa and Roibal in the same basket which is a level below than Cordero, Ramos and Windle.

      1. I agree with you on Ramos over Neris but Ramos will start at AA and probably not make it to Philly this year.
        As for Roibal, he came out of nowhere but he was VERY good last year in Reading and I think he will surprise this year and get to Philly. We’ll see if I’m right.

        Tirado, Rivera, Therien plus Ramos will lead the advancing bullpen pack next year.

        1. i agree that Ramos will not make it to 25-man this year but he, Cordero and Windle will be the featured BP arm in 2017.

          i’m not sure about JDT – i don’t see him making the Phils long term. i assume you are referring to Alexis Rivero (when you mentioned Rivera). Yes, he is another BP arm to watch, but he is not relevant until 2018. I can see Jairo Munoz getting a call (if he continue his progression) ahead of him if the Phils need a BP arm in 2017-18.

  13. Oops. I missed the first two votes. Not that it would have mattered. JThompson here.

    My list:
    1. JP Crawford
    2. Nick Williams
    3. Jake Thompson

    My boy coming up at number 4.

    1. Jim – can you evoke your 100-1 voting rights to ensure CR gets in at number 4. And if you could consider Cozens in the coming days. Back 10 for me. Thanks

  14. I will be very much interested in watching the progress of both Nick Williams and Mazara.

    I wanted Mazara in the Hamels trade, but I think that Williams is the better athlete. Of course, Mazara is two years younger.

    Keith Law, BA, mlb.com, etc. all say that Mazara is the better prospect, but we’ll see.

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