Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #1

Welcome to the 2016 Reader Top 30!

Well, here we go.  This should take us right up to pitchers and catchers in February.  They are scheduled to report on the 17th.  The first workout will be on the 18th.  Just 44 days.

As I mentioned over the weekend, I expect to post most week days.  The first ballot is comprised of the 22 players who make up MLB’s top twenty and Baseball America’s top ten.  I’ll add names as needed.  I expect to add about 10-15 names before we reach #10.  If I think it is warranted, I’ll remove names to make room for additional candidates.  

If you want to suggest a player you think I may overlook, you can make the request among the Comments section or e-mail prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject Line – Add Prospect.  The Other option (a write-in, if you will) is also available, however I may have to turn it off it it is abused as it was last year.

As I mentioned earlier, we will follow MLB’s and Baseball America’s standards for prospects by considering any player eligible for rookie status as eligible for this poll.  If you have a completed list of your own and would like to forward it to me, you can e-mail it to me at prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject – My Prospect List.

75 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #1

  1. Might be the easiest vote we’ve ever had on this site.

    Though confused to see Appel receiving more votes than Thompson. To me, Thompson is as clear-cut at #2 as JP is at #1. Didn’t even think there would be a debate about it, like there isn’t about this pick.

    1. I wouldn’t worry about that too much, since anyone that is voting for either Mark Appel or Jake Thompson over JP Crawford is, by definition, a clown

    2. There are 3 “Other” votes and 1 vote for Tom Windle. I could see a smattering of Appel’s, Thompson’s, Williams’ and maybe even a Kilome or two but “Other” or Windle are outright, I’ll say it, stupid. There’s a couple of trolls playing in the website.

        1. DMAR…maybe a vote for Tom Windle, from the other Windle from Reading…his twin brother Sam, the 6’4″, 220 lb hockey player on the Reading Royals…..now I ask, who is going to mess with him!

          1. Nice Romus didn’t know you followed the Flyers minor league teams. Now if you want a beast there’s guy on the Reading Royals he’d Matters you tube fights.

    3. agree. other than some votes for “others”, I’m surprised that JPC is not (yet) close to unanimous.

  2. Not surprises that franklyn kilome received a vote. Eventually will be #1 after jp and thompson get up to the bigs

    1. Can we hold back the enthusiasm on Kilome a bit until he actually pitches well rather than just looks good on the sidelines?

  3. I’m cooling on Kilome to the extent I have him in the 10 range. Consider Thompson will pitch this season as a 22 Year Old probably at AAA for most of the upcoming season.

    Kilome will pitch as a 21 y/o and hasn’t made A ball yet. Contrast that with another pitcher that pitched as a 20 y/o in CLW and most of the board has soured on Victor Arano.

      1. That is a great choice for a breakout player. I’ve yet to settle on one but leaning toward Tobias as a name to watch. He reminds more than a few scouts of another Josh that kind of came on late in Josh Harrison. The kid can hit.

        1. Yes I like Tobias also, reminds me of an early Alonso, Carlos not Kiko.
          Though, I hope he develops more at the plate then Carlos, and also stays healthy.
          Between Kingery, Valentin and Tobias could be a pretty formidable battle for top 2nd base prospect in the system.

          1. I am most likely wrong, but I am not in love with Tobias, saw him in college. I just don’t see him as a big leaguer. don’t like his glove or bat.

            1. I’m not in love but I am intrigued. If he were a stock he is cheap. I’ll buy low and see what happens.

            2. rocco…..remember the last guy you were not in love with out of HS with a .315 BA…..Lucas Williams!

    1. Kilome and Arano are the essentially the same age (Arano is 138 days older, 4.5 months). But a big difference is that Arano pitched 2 professional season before moving up to A+ ball. Kilome only just completed his second pro season.

      1. Seems when it comes to Kilome there appears to be disconnect between the observable scouting and the metrics.
        He has all of approx. 90 IPed , and when you compare his metrics at his current age level vs other 16-year old LA signees from the past like Luis Severino and Teheran, at their respective age seasons, he falls short.
        But his physical profile and mechanics are fluid and his size projects well, plus understand he learns quickly
        I am like DMARS, however, right now I am reluctant to anoint him as an ace.
        I see him in the 12-15 range.
        But by July 1st will know for sure where he stands.
        As for Arano……260 professional IPed vs Kilome’s 90 is not a metric to take lightly.
        nevertheless, Kilome’s ceiling is still considered quie high by many knowledgeable scouts, so I say let it play out for him. And you can’t beat that signing price of only 40K!

      2. Kilome is a 6’6, 20 year old pitcher with a 70 grade Fastball, that sits in the mid-high 90’s. Arano is a 6’1, 20 year old pitcher with a 55 grade Fastball that sits in the low 90’s. Their both in early development, so the tools matter.

    2. considering Arano’s age and a glimpse of a potential solid BP arm, i’m not disregarding Arano yet. i see Tobias as similar to Cesar Hernandez – a serviceable IF who can get on base. Tobias 2016 stats might be better than Kingery but he is more of a High Floor type of a player so Kingery is still the future of 2B (barring no trades of FA signing of 2B).

    3. I’m going to be voting for Nick Williams at 2, I read the recent BA scouting report and was floor’d by the take… Kid is going to be special.

  4. Crawford of course.

    The Appel votes are surprising at one level yet not at another. There was a group of commenters at the time of the trade whose enthusiasm was … IMO a bit greater than warranted by the facts.

    It’s funny – few if any of us have seen him pitch, some video clips aside (and IMO you can’t get much from them). So we’re looking at the same numbers and the same scouting reports. From what I’ve read, his star is much diminished. But some of you guys seem to think that, with a change of scenery, he’s still the low risk potential top of the rotation pitcher that he was thought to be when he was drafted. Whereas the reports I’ve seen suggest a mid rotation starter or high leverage reliever – with some upside potential but also downside risk.

    And you know what, I hope the optimists are right – and they may be! But for me he belongs at the back end of the top ten. I see six guys clearly ahead of him, with another 3 or 4 with an argument at least. Granted, he was still on national top 100 lists last year (will he be when this year’s lists come out?), but that seems to me to be a relic of his original draft position and old scouting reports.

    1. Interesting take on Appel Larry whom I have at 6 on my board. I’m not banking on a simple change of scenery. I’m banking on a possible change in mechanics or philosophy.

      I’m hoping big Roy gets to work with him and finds something simple that clicks for him. the stuff is not showing up in the results and that should be fixable.

      1. From what I’ve read, the problem isn’t so much that the stuff isn’t showing up in the results, but that the stuff has regressed. Now, it’s STILL possible that that may be fixable, but I think that distinction probably explains my somewhat greater skepticism.

        That said, the difference between 6 and 9, 10, or 11 (where I would put him) isn’t that great. For me the head scratcher is people who have him higher than 6. It just seems to me that you can put him over the Thompson/Williams/Randolph group only if you ignore the minor league results and reports of diminished stuff entirely.

        1. Maybe, read where Appel needs to throw and regain his confidence in his sinker(2S) again, he did at Stanford, but. ‘Stros got him away from it after ’13 instructs and in 2014 in the Cal league he bottomed-out. But he still got a promo to AA and did fairly well in the 2nd portion of the season.
          But have not read where his stuff has diminished, in fact read the opposite that it remains the same as college, but results have varied.

  5. There’s one really glaring omission from this list – a guy who has an argument for the top 10. I’m not THAT high on him, but he probably belongs on the list.

    That said, it’s amazing just how deep this list is compared to past years. Prediction: there will be at least 4 or 5 guys who don’t make the top 30 who are legitimate prospects. That’s just an eyeball prediction; I haven’t had time for a really deep dive into the prospect list recently.

    1. Oh, and another significant omission – that’s at least two arguable top 10 or 15 players not on the above list. But again, that’s really a testament to how deep the system is now.

      1. Okay, about 15 spots too early to talk about this guy, but again an indicator of the depth of the system. Another guy not listed above, not one of the two obvious (to me) omissions. This time I won’t be coy about who I’m talking about – Grullon. He was #11 on the fan’s list last year. Now, it’s true that he got off to a horrible start last year, but he came on strong late int he year, and IMO his prospect status is undiminished. Yet he likely won’t make the top 20 this year.

        1. Grullon’s omission was the biggest one for me. He’s probably in my top 20. Wanted to put in a write in vote for Grullon, but will hold off through the top 4.

        2. I have Deivi at 23 and I’m hoping this is a big year for him. He is only 20 but the hit tool really seems to be lacking. I had him at 17 but usurped him with Encarnacion.

          1. I can’t see a hitting challenged, 18 year old GCL First baseman being ranked higher than a hitting challenged, 19 year old SAL Catcher with an 80 arm.

      1. DMAR…. think you are correct.
        Righty-righty 1st baseman just require a lot more talent from the hit toll, for them to get high rankings, in fact from almost all the pubs like BA/BP and even MLB.com.

        1. yeah yeah yeah Romus so you’ve said (haha) but I don’t care he is in my top 10

          Biddle is not on the list huh…he is no longer top 20 for me but none the less surprised to not see him listed.

          1. I guess like Watson after his surgery, they fall off lists.
            The earliest, I assume, they will let Biddle pitch to hitters will be somewhere around August, that will be the approx. ten month mark.

    2. I just made my first attempt at a top 30 list yesterday and ended up going to 50. There are guys I have in the 30s who probably would have been in the mid-late teens in some past years. If there was ever another year we were going to do a top 50 it should be this one.

  6. I don’t have enough of a sense of other team’s list to definitively rank the team’s system, but combining depth with strength at the very top with a more than solid top ten, I would imagine it’s easily a top 5 in baseball system. The only thing lacking is a second Crawford type prospect – that is, high ceiling, close proximity, low risk prospect. But … few organizations boast that.

  7. I hope the new MacPhail/Klentak brain trust really appreciates what they have in Sal Agostinelli and his team. What they did with the resources they were given was nothing less than astonishing. Put some real money behind them and God knows what they might bring back.

    1. I think the grading book is still somewhat open on Sal and his team. He’s found some great talent for cheap in guys like Ruiz and Franco as established position players and guys too young to know for sure such as Tocci, Canelo, and the departed Arauz and pitching prospects like Kilome, Pinto, and Medina. What Sal’s team has yet to show is that they can make wise big $ signings. Thus far, Encarnacion has hardly set the minor leagues afire and there was a lot of discussion this past summer about whether Ortiz was worth the bonus he received, in comparison to smaller bonuses to some guys who ranked a tad higher on 1 July. Time will tell. This will be a big summer for Sal and his team.

      Over the past decade, the Phillies have not been among the top teams in producing significant major leaguers from LA.

      Things are looking up for us in LA and Sal seems to be finding more gems.

      1. Grullon and Pujols were fairly high dollar signees also.
        IMO Grullon will be a MLB player at some point.
        Not so sure about Pujols……he like Encarnacion are taking awhile to catch fire.
        This July the Phillies could max out at somewhere around $9M in allocation and that should get them some of the high end talent. I hope Cuban OFer Lazaro Armenteros is ruled eligible only after July 1st, so they could be in the game with him.

  8. Crawford 1, Appel 2, can we start the voting process at number 3 and save some time

      1. I have him 6th and can’t find any justification for placing him in the top 3. Baseball Prospectus has him ranked 7th.

  9. BP just released their rankings for the Phillies:

    J.P. Crawford (SS)
    Nick Williams (OF)
    Jake Thompson (P)
    Franklyn Kilome (P)
    Roman Quinn (OF)

    Cornelius Randolph (OF)
    Mark Appel (P)
    Jorge Alfaro (C)
    Andrew Knapp (C)
    Ben Lively (P)

    1. Lively? I forgot to put him on my top 50. I guess I’d put him somewhere in the late 20s. Even the BP writeup on him doesn’t sound that impressed.

      1. Lively was not in my top 20 either, but their reasoning for placing him above Eflin makes some sense, if you doubt their ability to be ML Starters. They don’t believe either is a slam dunk as a Major league starter, so they believe Lively’s FB and Slider will work better than Eflin’s FB and Change-up, as a relief pitcher.

        1. Yeah, I see the line of thinking. I still think Eflin has a higher ceiling and a better chance of being a starter. I guess I’ve just never been that crazy about Lively and his “just okay” performance last year makes me look at him as a #5 starter at best. I’d rather take my chances with a guy like Medina or Grullon or Pinto, etc.

  10. JP, Williams and Thompson for me. I probably go Appel then Randolph before Kilome and Quinn. I really like Quinn, but he has to give me a healthy year, and Kilome is still too far away for me to put him at #4. I know a lot of you do not count proximity and that is fair, but I have Appel ahead of him today.

    1. Matt13, I have the same first five players in the same order players in the same order, but the next five for me are Eflin, Quinn, Alfaro, Kilome and Pinto.

  11. Okay, so the 11 write-in votes so far were for –
    Hoby milner 2
    Nick fanti 1
    Cord Sandberg 1
    Hoby Milner 1
    Larry Greene Jr. 1
    Dylan Cozens 1
    Blark 1
    Herlis Rodriguez 1
    Mitchell Walding 1
    nick fanti 1

    1. You’re being played. I guess we know Sandusky is the Walding vote. Can’t imagine who besides LGJ or whis wife, who inexplicably thought it was a good idea to fatten him up, would vote for LGJ. Three votes for Hoby Milner, yes you’re being played. I guess Blark is the equivalent of voting for Pat Paulsen.

      1. Of the write-ins, Cozens seems to be the only one who could be in the top 15 somewhere….but not numero uno.

  12. My top 5 are going to be based on what I think their ultimate standing in the game will be.
    JPC has the best chance, in my opinion, to be a HOF player. He plays confidently and demands continual improvement in his game.

  13. Ya, this one is easy…next. While most of us probably have a lot of the same guys in our top 8 – 10. My guess is the order will be quite varied among us based on what I have read over the past few months.

    1. He is a pitcher who has displayed great control and command at the college level. His pro experience is very small statistically. He is all projection based on his college experience, which was amazing as far as walks to strikeouts.

  14. BP on Hoskins:
    BP staff member Jeffrey Paternostro
    BP staff
    (37886)
    He’s in the 11-15 range in this system but I don’t find college first baseman mashing in A-ball to be generally interesting enough to write about outside of a top ten ranking, and this system is too deep for him to crack it. If he does the same in Double-A the conversation changes some.

  15. And I agree with that assessment exactly. If he does it again in AA, then it is a whole different conversation. But until then, I don’t have him in my Top 10 and not really sure where I will slot him.

  16. Reading is a lot easier to hit then Clearwater.So he should take off there , Trouble is you can put almost anyone at 1st that has power.

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