Box Score Recap – 8/5/2015

Clearwater (61-48) bounced back with a 7-0 shutout of the Lakeland Flying Tigers.  Ricardo Pinto (5-2, 2.96) pitched extremely well.  He used a low 90s fastball to set up his offspeed pitches as he went 6.0 innings and scattered 5 hits.  He walked none and struck out six.  He induced a lot of weak contact.  Alberto Tirado made his Clearwater debut and pitched 2 innings.  He has a mid 90s fastball, touching 96.  He gave up a bloop hit on a well located pitch and an excuse me swing to his first batter.  He survived his first night jitters walking 2 and striking out three.  Miguel Nunez pitched a strong ninth.

The Threshers pounded out 13 hits.  Malquin Canelo  went 2-5.  Rhys Hoskins (.302) went 2-4.  Dylan Cozens (.277) went 1-3 with a double. and BB.  Willians Astudillo (.310) went 2-3 with an RBI.  Wilson Garcia DH-ed and went 3-4 with an RBI.  Derek Campbell started at third and went 2-3 with his first HR and 3 RBI.

Pinto benefitted from some good fielding plays.  Astudillo threw out a base runner.  Andrew Pullin cut down a runner trying to stretch a single.

The Threshers picked up 2 gift runs when RF Jiwan James dropped a two-out fly ball on the warning track, not a difficult catch, just a lackadaisical approach on a “can of corn”.

Lehigh Valley (51-61) beat the Toledo Mud Hens 9-3.  Sean O’Sullivan won his first game. Jason Berken got his first save.  Aaron Altherr (.306) went 2-3 with a double, tripl, 2 BB, and 4 RBI.  Kelly Dugan went 2-4 with a walk and 2 RBI.

Reading (60-50) beat the Trenton Thunder 11-1.  Ben Lively limited the Thunder to 1 run on a solo HR.  Tom Windle, Reinier Roibal, and Stephen Shackleford pitched a shutout inning each.

Nick Williams kind of had a good game – 4 for 4 , 5 runs scored, a double, 2 home runs, a walk, and 3 RBI from the leadoff position.  J.P. Crawford (.252) went 0-2 with 2 walks and an RBI.  Chase Utley went 3-4 with a double and RBI.  Andrew Knapp (.373) went 2-5 with 2 HR (4) and 3 RBI (33).  Brian Pointer struck out 4 times.

Lakewood (55-52) lost tothe Greensboro Grasshoppers 6-5 in 10 innings. Scott Harris blew the save with 2 HR in the 8th.  Joey DeNato took the loss.  Herlis Rodriguez (.296) went 2-5.  Scott Kingery (.255) went 1-5 with a HR (3) and 2 RBI.  Kyle Martin (.313) went 1-5.  Jiandido Tromp hit his 6th HR.

Williamsport (28-17) lost to the Mahoning Valley Scrappers 8-6.  Jose Taveras didn’t survive the first inning.  Feliberto Sanchez dug a deeper hole in the second inning.  The defense surrendered 3 unearned runs.  Zachary Coppola (.316) went 2-5 with 2 RBI.  Mark Laird (.298) went 2-5.  Josh Tobias (.300) went 0-5 with an RBI.  Jesus Posso went 2-5 with a HR (4) and 2 RBI.

GCL Phillies (22-13) beat the GCL Yankees2, 12-3.  Sam McWilliams missed the win by one out.  Zach Morris came in as the first reliever and got the win.  Tanner Kiest and Victor Delgado mopped up with perfect innings.  Tommy Joseph started at third and went 2-2 with a double and HBP.  Lucas Williams (.296) replaced Joseph and went 1-2.  Cornelius Randolph (.280) went 1-4 with a BB.  Edgar Cabral had 3 RBI.  Luis Encarnacion (.257) went 2-5 with a double and 2 RBI.  Scott Tomassetti (.357) went 2-3 with 2 doubles.  Rodolfo Duran went 2-2 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI.

DSL Phillies (32-25) beat the DSL Indians 6-0.  Geury Ortiz (3-3) threw a 4-hit shutout in a rain-shortened seven ining game .

VSL Phillies (29-39) Postponed due to rain.

Here’s the affiliated scoreboard from MiLB.

Extra Innings –

  • No transactions.

180 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 8/5/2015

  1. Wow, these are the “days to remember” as Billy Joel would say for the pharm. great, great, great hope for the phuture

      1. The AB with the double was impressive. Lefty throwing breaking balls got ahead of him. He worked him, until he got a pitch to hit.

  2. Knapp nedds to be promoted it’s no challenge for him at all. Happy to see some power too outta him and Nick Williams is really exciting me. That’s one hell of a line tonight, he can do it all.

    1. I think the Phillies are working on trying to figure out the rosters for next year right now.

      I would love to be a part of those discussions. There has to be a ton of debate about who fits in where up and down the farm system.

      My hope is that whoever is the next GM, he does not shortcut the process. There is a significant amount of talent on the farm system.

      1. It will be interesting to see what position prospects get sent to the AFL and how they are assigned next season. Crawford probably will start next year in AA at least for a little part of the season unless they really want to push him up to AAA. Williams could see himself starting in AAA. Hoskins should be in AA, Tocci probably starts in High A as well as Canelo, and maybe Kingery. Cozens may go to AA if he keeps playing like he has been. Randolph should be sent to Low A to start next year. It’s going to be quite interesting to see where all these players go next year and they are starting to have a lot of players from Low A on up playing for the same spots.

        1. Its time for the guys who are performing to move up and those who are not to get out of the way.

      2. It’s fair to ask whether there a “next GM” is imminent at this point … RAJ has his warts, but once he committed to a rebuild, the pharm improved exponentially. I wouldn’t be surprised if MacPhail kept him on to see the rebuild through.

        Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get let go after the season either.

        1. I think he stays…but not as GM….gets bumped upstairs.
          Phillies, like Flyers, do not like to let go of old friends.
          He also still is Sr VP of Ops…so he moves offices down the hall.

          1. You know how I feel about RAJ. I’d like to see him get a shot at running this thing with a proper F/O structure and a guy like Middleton and McPhail at the helm Almaraz running the scouting and Dallas Green and Monty the heck out of there.

            But if they do decide to move on I hope they move on completely. I’ll take that as a sign that things really have changed on 1 Citizens Way.

            It’s one thing to treat your alums good but they don’t old need to have offices at the bank or even worse input on the direction of the franchise.

          2. Agreed – I think he gets kicked upstairs as well. Now that MacPhail is running the show and not Montgomery, Amaro lurking around really doesn’t bother me in the least. From everything I’ve seen, MacPhail is very hands-on – even as President, I expect him to be almost as involved in various decisions as a GM would on other teams.

            1. catch…still think Middleton will also be highly active with MacPhail in the direction going forward. Monty’s health and Gillick’s pending retirement, and Giles age will further ebb their involvement in the operations…they will be there for the ceremonies and charity events.
              Though Ruben could be MacPhail’s successor in 5/7 years down the road.
              Now whoever the GM remains in question.
              I am sure it will be Middleton and MacPhail’s decision.

      3. I don’t think there will be a new GM. Amaro learned on the job and ultimately that is what will keep him in it. While it’s huge to overlook that he unnecessarily put the team in this position (should have never dropped below .500 ball), he saved himself with mostly good trades thereafter, of course highlighted by the Hamels trade.

        Last night was one of the best indicators of the promise of the future. I’m no expert for sure and have not made an analysis, but I’d say in the last year the farm team has risen from mid-20s ranked to around #8-10.

        1. Vermont……..IMO, just not sure he wants to stay as GM, I think he wants to move on to another challenge higher up in the executive positions. I think the President position , sitting next to Middleton will be his calling at some point..

        2. I have a theory that many of the bad contracts made be more Montgomery’s fault than Amaro’s, guess we will see soon

      4. I would hope the Phillies will be concentrating first on the 40-man prior to December’s Rule 5, before worrying about the 25-man for April..

    2. You can’t really promote Knapp with Lino catching at AAA. Knapp needs as many games as possible behind the plate. It’s good that he’s hitting so well right now, but he needs too much work at catcher to promote. He still has the rest of the AA season and playoffs. This would be a good year to send him out to the AFL to get more reps.

      1. It is going to be an interesting discussion this offseason.

        Look at the pitching staffs in the SSS leagues. There are more than enough guys to fill out the Lakewood staff.

        The AA and AAA staffs are full. Lots of depth throughout the system.

        1. There should be a lot of movement next year and if anything they may struggle to find spots for all these arms. They do have a lot of pitching in the upper minors and even more will be coming when they promote a few guys.

          1. That is why I doubt they make a move in free agency. The rotation will likely be Nola and 3 or 4 guys battling for spots. They may not be quality names but guys will be shuffled around.

            At some point next season I believe everyone on the AAA roster will see time in the starting rotation.

    3. Knapp is horrible behind the plate. Until he learns how to catch, he needs to stay in AA. Several scouting reports and firsthand reports show this. Catchers need to do more than just hit.

      1. 100% agree. There’s not one scouting report out there that lists his receiving/ throwing as even *average. He is fine where he is getting reps behind the plate. He’s not in the same league as Lino who also needs reps.

      2. I’ve not seen Lino to compare but Knapp to me seems average, not below, for his current level. Can’t really judge his framing and pitch calling but he has an ok glove and arm. I’d say anyone who deems Knapp ‘horrible’ behind the plate hasn’t seen him play.

    4. I wouldn’t promote Knapp, both for the team’s sake and his own. The Reading Phillies are seldom in the playoffs. They are currently on a playoff run. If they make it into the playoffs, both getting there and having the playoff experience will be a plus for the players (and a big plus for the fans and the team’s marketing next season.) Let the pitchers at Reading continue to work with Knapp. As far as Knapp is concerned, let him enjoy some sustained success. Allentown is not a hitters park and a lot of guys have difficulty making the transition to the less-friendly park and the more savvy opposing pitchers. Knapp has only 118 AB at AA. That’s not enough. This is the first time in his career that he has gotten his OPS over .800. Let him keeping banging out hits at Reading. There will be challenges. The opposing teams and pitchers will know more about him. The playoffs themselves are a challenge for him. I think a promotion can do a lot of harm with very little possibility to do good. If Alfaro was healthy and forcing a decision, that would be one thing, but that’s not the case.

  3. What a game for Williams. He just continues to rake in AA. Same for Knapp. He’s been quite spectacular offensively and it’s nice to see him showing more in game power. Altherr with another good game and I for one am excited to see him in the majors some time soon.

  4. Julsan Kamara, in the DSL, has not played since July 2. He’s the kid from Germany the Phils signed a couple of years ago. He’s listed as active on the roster but he’s having trouble hitting a little girl’s weight. Not sure why they’re keeping him around but maybe they’re working on him.

    That Tommy Joseph seems to be a real prospect in the GCL. Now let’s get him to where he belongs in Reading or LHV. Not sure what position he’ll play there but they’re trying him at 1B and 3B.

    And what can be said of Nick Williams?… WOW!!!!!

    1. I think we traded Gustavo Pierre back to the Blue Jays yesterday; that may be a move to clear a spot in Reading for Joseph, although I don’t know whether his play in the field is ready for the upper minors yet.

  5. I know Gregg does a great job at giving the organizational leaders in the statistical categories but I was just playing around in Baseball-Reference to see how things are now and Altherr jumped off the page at me. I knew he was having a breakout season but he’s in the top 5 is just about every offensive category (except nose hair). He’s tied for 1st in HR with Hoskins (13). He’s 4th in RBIs with Stassi, Hoskins and Pullin ahead of him. He’s tied for 4th in triples with 4 (Mora has a staggering 9 in nearly half the ABs as everyone else on the list). He’s 3rd in 2B behind Knapp and Hoskins. He’s 4th in hits behind Tocci, Hoskins and Canelo. He’s 3rd in runs scored and 2nd among prospects (only Hoskins is ahead of him and Canelo is tied with Altherr). He’s 6th in BBs but 3rd based on prospects. On the downside he’s 6th in K’s with the superstar Danks leading the way. Knapp is also 4th on that list. Walding and Tromp are 2nd and 3rd on that list too. He’s 2nd in Total Bases behind Hoskins.

    I guess another thing to glean from this is Hoskins is higher in most categories. He’s 2 years younger and hasn’t really been at a level that’s tested him. Stassi should be moved up and Hoskins too. McGuiness is not lighting things on fire, LHV is not in any race to win the division and he’s not needed as a backup to Howard. Let’s get ‘er down. Let’s remember Martin should be starting A+ next year so let’s get him there earlier. Hayden is hitting like A ball is where he belongs. Tommy Joseph can go to Wmprt if you need a first baseman and it would give him a little more challenge. Or move him to CLW. If you want to watch his rehab, then move him there and hold Martin and Hayden back. A lot of options and a time for testing.

    1. Hoskins performance since his promotion is even more impressive considering the league he is in … among players with 150 PA in the FSL, he is second in wOBA (.401) and has borderline elite BB/K rates (12.4/16.4).

      1. The perhipherals on Hoskins are excellent. To me, if a young player has shown a good hit tool, keeps K rates in check and has a high BB rate, you need to take notice. Hoskins has done all of this and has shown more than respectable power. We are told he has like 65 or more raw power so I think it’s probably just a matter of time before we see this translate a little more with his hit tool. I kind of expect Hoskins to go berserk next year at Reading, perhaps get promoted to AAA in July and maybe even get a cup of coffee in September. By the end of next year, the new look Phillies are going to come into sharper focus. I’m going to try to see as many games as I can in September of 2016. Even watching the team now is refreshing by comparison.

    2. I hope Altherr can be the outlier like Josh Donaldson has been. Late-bloomer to the MLB circuit.

      1. As do I. I’ve been a fan of his for a little while now and always felt if he could just develop a little bit more of a selective approach he could start in the majors. He can play any spot in the outfield well and he’s got enough power to play the corners. He’s got 30 plus doubles power, enough speed to get a few triples, and he’s been around 15 homers the last few years in the minors in less games than he would have in the majors if he’s starting. He could be a high teens or low 20s type power hitter with enough ABs.

      2. I love that Frenchy guy maybe a waiver deal can get him to a contender and Altherr can come up and get the majority of starts in RF for the remainder of the season.

        1. Why do they have to trade Frenchy to get Altherr playing time every day? It’s an abomination every time Asche goes out there – he is clearly the odd man out moving forward. So put him out of his misery (and ours) and send him down and put Altherr in.

            1. He’s not even a replacement level player offensively and never will be. He’s shown you his ability (its AAA at best), so who cares if he’s cheap and under team control.

              This is IMO a ridiculous argument.

            2. 2 of our 3 starting OF’s today are playing their respective positions for the first time this season.

              I am not willing to write either Asche or Herrera off for that reason.

              After next year it may be a different story. Both guys are learning their positions on the fly so I expect the OF defense to be below average.

            3. Asche puzzles me…when you factor in 2012 and 2013 metrics on him at High-A thru AAA levels…his slash should be a lot higher then it is in the MLB…and for that matter also his ISO….I do not get it. And it cannot be about the position change…since it is a lot easier going from the infield to LF.
              Next year becomes his probation year at this point.

            4. Romus, I agree. What you said is why I am so patient this year.

              But we have to be clear that there are footsteps behind him.

              There are a bunch of guys who will be knocking on the door next year. Everyone starting today should know that there are guys who will want their jobs in 2016 and 2017.

            5. I can see trying to find a .300 hitter a place to play but why are they trying so hard with Asche?

            6. Well that’s just silly b/c his defensive position has ZERO impact on his offensive production. And he’s a poor offensive player. So you can hold out hope that he might one day advance to the point where he’s replacement level, but that’s never happening and we’re sorta looking for better than replacement level anyway.

      3. Although just watching a player on the field can sometimes be deceptive, I can tell you that when I saw Altherr on the field in Reading early in the year, he just stood out. He appeared to do everything well and I left the game thinking “wow, that Altherr is just a really good baseball player.” I never thought I’d say this, but with Altherr and Williams on the farm and Herrera hanging around, Quinn’s future just might be at second base (although an outfield of Altherr [RF], Williams [LF], and Quinn or Herrera would work just fine, thank you. People are forgetting about him, but I think Quinn can still be a big star – he’s electric and I think he’s has a lot of untapped potential.

        1. Unfortuantely Quinn, in the last 4 season has only played one full season….and that was a combination of HS and short-season ball at Williamsport. In fact he had more PAs at low-A Williamsport then all other stops except for CLW last year.
          He needs to stay on the field and then he will really produce…wherever they finally put him.

        2. I doubt they throw another change of position at Quinn. Health permitting, he’s a far more talented player than Herrera, and CF should be his in a few years. Herrera if anything looks like a fourth OF/utility guy (BTW, has he ever played SS/3B? If he’s played 2B, it’s possible he could handle the other infield roles in a pinch).

          Williams/Quinn/Altherr in 2018, with Tocci and Randolph making noise for late season promotions … anybody got a time machine? 🙂

          1. IMO, Herrera stays as the CFer. His bat could play out more productively in 2016, if he does not regress. His range in CF, as TMac pointed out last night, is exceptional as he leads all CFers with 58 feet average sprint to put-outs, beating Red’s Hamilton by 4 feet. His gap-power has been under estimated, and he still projects as a 10HR guy.
            But for him, one step backwards and he probably is relegated to a 4th OFer.
            Though when he was voted best 2nd baseman in the Texas League last year…..there were only 8 teams in the entire league…so you have to take that with a grain of salt.

            1. I would agree with this sentiment. It’s his job to lose next year. Outside of maybe Altherr (who can play all three spots so they may not start him in center) there really isn’t anyone who can push him off his perch. At least not for a year or so.

            2. It’s worth noting that Herrera has a .360 BABIP and an awful walk rate. A step back for him next year might just be normal regression. If he wants to be a long-term starter, he needs to show improvement, not just stay in a holding pattern.

          2. Agree; Quinn will not be moved back to the infield. Quinn at SS was an experiment by the Phillies. The experiment ultimately failed, but I understand why the Phillies tried. Anyway, Quinn played much better when he was moved from SS to his more natural CF spot. I doubt another attempt at an infield position would be considered.

        3. Quinn is still very much in play he just needs to stay healthy. He still needs to improve at the plate and needs games in the field. He has to cut down on the strikeouts if he isn’t going to walk at all. I do agree the Phillies went from having not much talent in the minors outfield to now having a few guys who could legitimately be here in the next two years.

          1. Quinn has shown the ability to take walks pretty much all through his minor league career. It’s never been a great BB%, except for his AFL stint, but solid.

            His injury is a shame not just for the time he’s missed, but because he was going really well when he went down. He had equal walks and strikeouts in June and seemed like he had made the adjustment after a bit of a slump.

        4. Until Quinn shows he can stay on the field I’m not counting on him for anything. He’s nothing more than potential right now and that will need to translate to production before we even start mentioning him as a possible starting OFer.

        5. If Quinn stays healthy and continues to progress as we hope, it will be Herrera who moves back to 2B.

        1. Vic and Herrera had the approx. same total PAs in the minors…over 2500..Odubel H. started earlier as a LA signee however.

          1. I’m comparing him to Altherr, not Herrera. Agreed that Odie and Vic have their similarities as well.

            1. Ok…..missed that conversation on Altherr above..stringing the threads get complicated following at times..

    3. Agree completely. With a log jam forming I can think of no reason why McGuiness is still on LV roster. Cut him and move everyone up a level

  6. Nick Williams announced his arrival like a cannon. A legit .300 hitting center fielder with power and speed? Ought to be illegal.

    1. A legitimate triple crown winner. Wait… hold on a minute… I need Larry to bring me back down to earth. Larry, are you out there?

      1. LOL. I like Williams a lot, though yeah you’re getting a little carried away. If you want me to play expectations manager on him, I’d point to position/defense – seems destined for LF, and might even be a little below average defensively there.

        But as a hitter, he could be REALLY good. By all reports he still needs some work on his approach, despite progress (considerable) this year in that area. If he makes that progress, watch out.;

    2. I usually listen to the BP Raw Projection podcast and I know those guys absolutely love Williams and think he’s really turned the corner as far as plate discipline goes and they think he’s got a legitimate 60-70 FV hit tool. I know one of the guys was in Reading for the first game he had and said he looks much better tracking balls in center than he has previously. Said the throw he made Tuesday night from center was a laser. He has the physical tools to stick there too.

      1. The Phillies, when Quinn he gets healthy, will probably send him back to CF and Williams shifts back to his familiar LF corner spot. Over 60% of his minor league playing time has been in LF so far..

        1. Most likely that’s what they do. Has anyone even heard any news on when Quinn is supposed to be even back? If he’s not back this year they may not even have to worry about it if Williams starts next year in AAA and Quinn is still in AA.

            1. Yeah I saw that a few weeks ago, but then saw he wasn’t on a specific timeline as far as coming is concerned. I have my doubts that he even plays at all the rest of the year.

  7. Anybody have a napkin? The national writers who criticized RAJ for holding out when San Diego offered Hedges and Renfroe for Hamels over the winter have egg on their face.

    1. We got a better deal than what SD offered, but let’s at least be honest. Wisler headed up the deal. He is now a successful MLB pitcher. Big, big also… we included Diekman with Hamels and ate a ton of $ to help out Texas. Still… even considering all of that, the Texas deal was superior.

      1. Texas just has more prospects then SD does . Texas now after the trade is still loaded SD gave what they could.

  8. Some of the nationals thought Mazara was a better prospect then Williams. Who knows!
    But comp for their minor careers thus far and they are close:
    Williams:
    6’3”, 195 lbs….21-years old
    Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55
    KRate-25%…..BBRate-6%…..297/.349…OPS-.841

    Mazara:
    6’4”, 195 lbs…..20-years old
    Hit: 55 | Power: 65 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60
    KRate-24%….BBRate- 11%……263/.348…OPS-.787

    1. It’s close right? I’m Disappointed I didn’t get out to Trenton these past few nights but I do already have tickets for the 15th which for some strange reason reading will be back in Trenton.

      Anyone know why the schedule worked the way it did? It looks like 2 of the games this series REA was the home team in Trenton and last night Trenton was home?

      Anyway with any luck Hoskins will get a promotion and I’ll get to see Thompson on the hill.

    2. I think they are much closer than some national people think. You could even make the argument that Williams may be the better prospect because of his athleticism and a superior hit tool. I know Mazara has been hyped up and long considered a better bet, but I think Williams has closed the gap and as far as power numbers go they are right there with each other, but Williams has I think hit better at every level if I’m remembering correctly. Williams has made huge strides in his plate discipline and he’s getting better in the field. I was very happy when it broke he was in the Hamels trade. I thought he was a must get player and personally I think he is the real headliner for that trade.

  9. With all the love of hitting, lost are good pitching games by McWilliams and Pinto and lively…

        1. No need to block our current crop of cost controlled prospects with Heyward. Doesn’t make strategic or economic sense. Plus a corner OF who’s entire value is built around OBP (translation – no power) and will want in excess of $20 million per… no thanks to that.

    1. The Phillies now have plenty, plenty of outfielders in the pipeline and can audition for the three spots. I wouldn’t use FA money for Heyward. I’d save that money, for when the time is right and they need a frontline ace. This offseason is probably not the time for that FA, I’d be looking to sign a guy like David Price. But they should be careful to reserve their use of the FA money for a year when they were in the top 10 worst teams so they don’t forfeit their first round pick the following year. I’m thinking now that the time to make this signing is probably before 2017.

    2. They are not signing (and should not sign) Heyward.

      I do think Altherr in CF next year is a good possibility, despite some continuing skepticism about him. He should get a shot to prove me wrong..

      Williams 2017.

      Herrera in AAA most likely (though possible major league bench piece) 2B will be Hernandez. I’m not convinced that Hernandez’ improvements are sustainable, but he deserves the chance to prove me wrong – and even if his improvements aren’t sustainable, he’s better than Herrera. For me the numbers that matter most for Herrera are 12 and 75. That’s just not consistent with major league success.

      1. That leaves two spots open. Possibilities:

        (1) Young guy who has disappointed with upside – my preferred choice. Phillies have not been good with these lately. Could come from signing a non-tendered player, trade, rule 5.

        (2) The current guys – Asche and/or Brown. Not optimistic about either for different reasons. Might depend upon how they play going forward in 2015.

        (3) Ruf? Most likely that ship has sailed. Hitting has been disappointing. Ironically, surprisingly, FWIW, his fielding metrics in the OF have been quite good.

        (4) Dugan. lack of power this year makes me a huge skeptic.

        (5) Cheap vet(s) on a short term contract – I’d rather use the spots on young guys, even if they are long shots. But this is a possibility, especially given past practice, and IMO better than signing an expensive FA.

        1. I’d like to see them fill at least one spot with option 1. Maybe Brown sticks if he can show something over the last part of the season, but I’m done with Asche at this point. Dugan may get a shot, but I don’t think he’s going to hit for more power than even Asche.

        2. @ this point we’ve already seen enough of Asche, he can’t play a lick. Let’s get Altherr some ABs the remainder of the season.

          1. Altherr will be in AAA at least until the end of the AAA season. He still has stuff to work on (would be nice to see the K rate come down a bit), and can work on it better in AAA. We’ll see him in September most likely, and yes I do think he’ll take ABs from Asche.

            1. I’m fine with this scenario. Guess I was more stating my disbelief that anyone thinks Asche is even a ML bench player at this point.

      2. I’d like to see Altherr get the job in center although I could see them sticking Herrera there to see if he makes improvements at the plate. Agree with you on Williams that 17 is when he probably gets his shot to start for the big club though he could be a September call up next year. To me Hernandez is a place holder until something else comes along.

        1. I guess that I should have listed Herrera among my options, even if he isn’t one of my preferred options.

          You’re likely right about Hernandez, but if he continues to play like he has this season he is a pretty nice placeholder. It’s interesting to compare his hitting performance with Herrera’s. The bottom line results are about equal, with Hernandez having more BB and Herrera more power. Both have somewhat inflated BABIP. But Hernandez seems so much more likely to be able to sustain his performance, with a much better BB/K ratio.

          1. Oh don’t get wrong they could do much worse at the position and if he can maintain an average around say .275 – .285 with his plate discipline that’s a nice offensive player at second. He’s got the highest OB% of any of the starters and the stolen bases are nice since he’s converting them at a high percentage. I’d like to see a little more gap power, but he’s done well far. If he got a full season of ABs he’s probably close to what say 25 doubles, 25 stolen bases, 3 triples, and sitting there with an OB% of .360. If he can produce that next year or even get to 30 and 30 with his high OB% I can live with that. I do like the BB/K ratio and I think that does indicate he can sustain what he’s doing somewhat.

      3. LarryM…ok …I will bite….what numbers do 12 and 75 signify?….understand 4 and 23…but not 12 and 75.

          1. Got it….thought you would have put it in the percentage format …as I did, 4% and 23%….and yes……those numbers have to change for the better for his long-term success.

      4. I think Herrera has played himself out of a 2016 AAA stint. I think he has shown himself to be a ML ballplayer and think it would be tough to send him down for more seasoning. I am not saying he is a star in the making, but that he belongs on the ML roster next year.

        1. He certainly does have a certain swagger about him…..and the facial expressions on umpire’s questionable strike calls are comical.
          But hopefully he continues this pace for these last two months and into April and May of next season.
          Long-shot, but Quinn could get a debut next June….if he is healthy and hitting at LHV.

          1. You think they start him LHV? I just don’t think they can move him up with missing a big chunk of the year. I would think he starts the year in AA and if he plays well the first 2-3 months he gets the promotion to AAA.

            1. Yes….Quinn will probably start and play at Readingt. He, however, could get more dev time but the AFL is not a viable option since he played thee last year, he could go to a Caribbean winter league somewhere.

      5. I see no reason why Herrera would be in AAA or the bench. Despite jumping up to majors precipitously because of Rule 5, he has played very well and his hitting has improved as the year progressed. He’s OPS+ of 104 for the season. He should be in CF in Philly next season. Altherr should man one of the other OF positions. That still leaves the remaining OF spot very much up in the air. The competition begins in 2017, when Quinn and Williams should be ready to join the OF.

        1. Allentown its not the way he plays. Its his numbers. I think he has improved a lot, with his offense, I like the way he has played and Hernandez,. but people say they cant keep it up. because of some numbers, I don’t get it especially Hernandez . he walks , has speed. plays a nice second. but all I heard is he cant keep it up. his number suggest he isn’t a starter. I Am old school I first look at the player. then use some numbers obp to me is big. power isn’t for a second basemen. who has speed and gets on. but as I said what do I know.

          1. I think it’s more likely that Hernandez keeps up his level of production than Herrera mainly because of the Bb/K ratio Herrera sports. I think he’s improved as the year has gone on and the CF job is his to lose next year. If he shows regression next year and is striking out at a higher rate while still not walking I could see them sending him down for a little or maybe they let him work it out at the MLB level.

      6. I’m surprised by the consensus that going after Heyward is a bad idea. He’s going to be 26 next season so, assuming a 6 year deal, he’ll be in his prime for the whole contract. He’s less than 18 months older than Aaron Altherr.

        We’re not exactly loaded with quality OF prospects after Williams. Quinn and Altherr deserve a chance at some point, but Quinn can’t stay healthy and this is Altherr’s first really good season. Everyone else probably isn’t good enough (Dugan, Herrera, Asche) or is too far away (Tocci, Randolph, Pujols, etc…) to worry about blocking.

        Heyward is going to finish this season with roughly 26 fWAR, which puts him on a pretty impressive list when you look at 20-25 year old OFs. It’s basically him, Caesar Cedeno, Sizemore, and 23 other very-good-to-inner-circle hall of famers:

        http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1900&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=20,25&filter=&players=0&page=1_30

          1. I don’t think it’s too early at all. It might be too much money to commit to a player where a lot of his value is based on defense, but it’s not too early. He’ll be 26 next year, so theoretically the next 4-5 years will be his prime. Adding a player like that could potentially speed up the rebuild a great deal.

            1. Speeding up the rebuild primarily focuses on guys in the minors making the show.

              Guys like Quinn, Altherr, Crawford, Williams, and others have to get up to the MLB and signing free agents does not affect their development timeline.

            2. The guys you mentioned are all in the high minors; their ETA isn’t that far off. Signing FAs won’t affect their timeline but it will affect the talent on the field. And let’s not pretend that it’s likely that our farm system will produce the entirety of a good starting ML outfield. Getting one or two from the farm would be good.

              If the farm system produces some pitching and infield talent over the next couple years, whether through graduations or trades, signing Heyward could be the difference between having a good 27/28 yo corner outfielder or having to find one because there’s a hole there.

            3. Yeah, that’s the best argument against it. He defense may decline during the last few years of the deal and you’re stuck overpaying a 2-3 win player if his bat doesn’t rebound. But the downside to Heyward is far higher than most free agents because of his age.

              To David’s point, most of our prospects aren’t going to pan out. It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t get an opportunity, but assuming Altherr, Quinn, and Williams all turn into 1st division regulars is unrealistic. And there really aren’t any other outfielders within the org who will be up in the next 2-3 years. Signing Heyward doesn’t really block anyone.

            4. It’s not that he won’t be worth his contract or even that it’s too early, it’s that free agency is the one place you can “draft according to need” – I don’t think the outfield will be the biggest need by the time this team is ready to be good. I think it’s going to be starting pitching.

            5. It is not about blocking anyone, it is signing someone too early.

              Quinn and Williams are your best bets with guys fighting for that third spot in the OF.

              You have to ask yourself, why would Heyward come here? This is his last destination unless you massively overpay.

              If he does not work out you tie your hands financially at a time when you get out from under all of the bad contracts.

              You don’t sign and wait for the guys to come up. You get the guys up and then fill in the roster holes.

            6. I think they can afford to pay big money for an OF and for a SP. Good players that are Heyward’s age don’t usually get to free agency.

            7. They can easily afford an OF and SP.

              The question is whether that is the right decision at this moment in time.

              There will be more than enough OF bodies next year with Altherr, Ruf, Asche, and a couple of one year signings in the OF.

              Williams, Quinn, and Herrera will be looking to make the jump up from AAA/AA..

              I don’t see how signing someone would benefit the OF. In two years I can see the benefit to fill in a hole but not this offseason.

            8. David….”Williams, Quinn, and Herrera will be looking to make the jump up from AAA/AA”……..we have another Herrera sitting in AAA/AA?..

            9. It is pretty much accepted that Herrera will drop down to AAA next season to work on some things. Maybe he irons out his issues in the AFL but it looks likely that he will be in AAA to start next season.

            10. David….Herrera is not eligible for the AFL….VWL is where he will hone his CF skills. Whether or not he I snte down will depend on on he does in ST and April of 2016.
              But……another group of Cubans coming in for big money….one of which, Yusniel Diaz, OFer could be the next prize catch…..Phillies need to cash in on one of these guys someday. Phillies should get high international dollars for next season, so he would be an ideal snatch.

        1. A corner OFer who’s statistical value is based on OBP and defense and who provides little to no power? Where do I sign up for that?

          1. Heyward’s value is like a roller-caster ride…every other year its either up or down.
            And HR stroke has been lost.

  10. This morning, a Crashburn Alley article has their site’s owner article giving reason NOT to trade Utley in August, but wait. Jump into the fray and opine.

    1. Thanks for the video. It’s pretty evident how good the swing is and he crushed those homers. He’s going to be quite fun to watch.

  11. Ty v1again. he really has some pop. Big uppercut swing on that monster second hr. I saw tape on corny. When you look at kids and project them. that kid imo has the first thing you want in a hitter. I saw unreal bat speed in his swing. I really am excited about that kid after watching him swing a bat.

  12. That Utley kid had a good night and looks ready to come back now. I hope the Phillies handle this delicate situation properly.

      1. What if Utley is willing to accept a lesser role as a backup for 1B or 2B at a much lower salary?. The Reading team had nice things to say about him and helping them. Agree with you that Cesar should remain the starting 2B.

        1. I think that will be a touchy situation since Cesar is cost controlled. How much are you looking at for a salary? $2 million to be on the bench?

          If Chase does well he will want to test the FA market for a better deal.

          You cannot pay him $4-5 million to sit on the bench with a >$1 million starter.

          You have to cut the ties.

  13. Can someone tell me if Corny projects as a RF? I see Altherr having a shot to make the team next year, but Dubie should still be the starter. Asche, Herrera, Altherr? In the future, Williams/Quinn/Randolph? You have to be excitied to see Williams. I know! SSS, but sure fun to see. Thompson, Eflin, Lively all look good as well. Who is the best defensive CF in the system right now? Tocci?

    1. I would guess that if Randolph had the tools to play RF, the org would start him there. MLB.com gave him a 40 for running and fielding, which further lends to the idea that he is fairly limited defensively (he did grade at a 55 arm, FWIW).

    2. You would think if Williams makes it in the league and when Randolph is ready to come up one of them will have to play right. Williams has the better physical tools to do so and I’m not quite sure Randolph has the arm for it from what I read from those who have seen him in the GCL.

      1. Did Dom Brown get “Sandberged”?? Sandberg leaves , mack makes an adjustment to his swing and he is back to his PRE-sandberg form of 2013….

        Williams—Altherr—Brown

  14. Romus you have to realize on lucas Williams I used a lot of facts and figures. plus tape. I Cant understand his bobilis was low. his obeas was bad. and his tomei was lowest in baseball yet he is hitting.

    1. rocco……have you now progressed to Metrics 4.5 for Dummies?
      bobilis , obeas, and tomei?
      Exactly what are they?

  15. Tomei is a hot 40+ year old actress. The other 2 not so sure. Not sure how she fits in baseball metrics.

      1. God she’s hot. Sorry, I couldn’t help myself. George Costanza isn’t the only one who dreams of Marisa.

      1. Mike (South Jersey)

        Andrew Knapp is healthy and is tearing it up in AA. Who is more likely to be moved from catcher … Knapp or Alfaro ? And where would they be moved to ?
        Klaw (2:05 PM)

        Didn’t tear it up in Clearwater so I don’t want to overrate the guy … Reading’s a good place to hit for power, too. But I liked Knapp’s defense a lot in college and I think he can hit for some average if not pop. He’s much further along than Alfaro is, plus Alfaro wont be back until at least the AFL, so Knapp can start 2016 in AAA and Alfaro can return to AA.

  16. Time for David Buchannan to return to Allentown and replace him with one of the new Ranger pitchers?

  17. I agree with the general theme that next year will be fun (as will the winter thinking about it) watching young guys get a shot. I’m not sure who will get the initial shot but over the course of the year a bunch of current minor leaguers will get called up.
    As for Herrera, everyone keeps talking him down. What I see is a guy who just learned how to play CF and has improved over the course of the season to the point where he is already very good out there and is still improving. His ability to track a fly ball is exceptional. He rarely goes the wrong direction. Its pretty impressive for a guy new to OF play. He’s only going to get better. As for his bat, he’s going to be a 300 hitter by the end of the month and that includes a bad slump mid year as he modified that stupid looking load of his. He’s the starting CF next year, without question for me. Altherr will definitely get a shot at a corner because I think Dom will be gone (although he’s on another run of his so who knows). Asche unfortunately looks like a 4A guy who needs to go back to 3B at LHV. Williams will certainly get a shot at this rate. Heck, I might give him a taste of LHV this year.

    This is the fun stuff that has to hold us until 2017!

    1. Agree on Herrera…though he needs to cut back on his Ks and increase his BBs…though he also has that canny ability to extend at-bats with fouling pitches off he is not sure if they are balls or strikes.
      Plus if you notice he has some muscular thighs…lower torso strength…so he can really drive the ball when he squares up on it.
      Small sampling but over his last 50 PAs he has only K’d 7 times, so maybe things are changing for him in that regard.

    2. Murray what I have seen in him. is he has learned the strike zone. I don’t know who has been working with him. This kid was swing at so many bad pitches in the early part of the season. I suggested then he needs to go down to learn. but he has done so far a good job of learning in major. not a easy thing to do.

  18. He has gotten better, and that is good to see. Someone has worked with him, and over 300 ABs is no longer a SSS. I am not saying he does not have work to do and improvements to make, but as a Rule V guy, he has been a big success. shown a lot both on O and D

  19. Was just enjoying all the informative banter [great site] until some of you mentioned that A] Herrera might go back to AAA or B] the bench.

    Herrera is going to be a star in the NL, remember where you heard it. The guy has star written all over him, and if you saw those catches he made for Hamels in the no-no you probably recognized it then, He has that magical, can’t teach it, “hit tool”, along with Dugan, Randolph and maybe Martin he has the best “hit tool” in the organization.

    You are going to be watching Herrera in All-Star games, you’ll see. Batting title in AA ball last year? Check. Batting title in the oft times tough Latin winter league? Check. Should have been in AAA ball this year but had to stay on the major league roster? Check. Learning a new position on the fly, literally? Check. Most infield hits in the NL this year? Check. Has an average of almost .400 since July 1? Check.

    Mark my words, if he stays in CF, and I think he will, Quinn is going to have his hands full taking a job from Herrera. He is going to be a star in Philadelphia and sooner than many of you think.

    The guy flat out knows how to hit.

    1. Not sure I agree with Star but he can be a really good player in this league. There are very few stars in these league. His offensive track record in the minors is pretty darn good and through 333 MLB PA’s an OPS plus of 106 is respectable.

      Mike Trout who we’d all agree is a star finished his first full season with an OPS+ of 168. Andrew McCutchen another star 121 in his first full season.

      I think a decent comp for Odubel would be Coco Crisp.

  20. Not the first one. Badmouth him if you wish, but the guy is going to be a star. I think if he continues to play every day the rest of the year, he will hit .300. He’s not that far off now.

  21. David is right. First one was a nice play, not spectacular. Second was a total misplay and lucky recovery. Anyways…I don’t want to rain on your Herrera love fest, because I agree, any talk about him going to AAA next year is pure nonsense. He has improved in every important area and keeps getting better. The Phil’s are about a year and half away from a big problem….what to do with Altherr, Dugan, Quinn, Williams, Herrera. Tocci isn’t far behind, and I expect one of either Brown, Cozens, or Sandberg to emerge as a true prospect. Maybe Herrera can move back to 2B, then you could maybe move Hernandez. The more Galvis plays, the bigger trade chip he becomes too.
    I also got a nice report from a former player of mine, he ended up as a college centerfielder, on Knapp, specifically defense. Called him “adequate” for now, and felt most were being to negative about the current state of his defense. Some of his obvious weaknesses can be improved, some won’t get much better. I still remember Harold Reynolds calling him his sleeper of the entire draft after the Phils picked him. Fun times ahead!

    1. “The Phil’s are about a year and half away from a big problem….what to do with Altherr, Dugan, Quinn, Williams, Herrera. ”

      Dugan isn’t a prospect and Altherr is a 4th OF. The Phillies don’t have the problem you’ve described.

  22. Ultey back You never know 8 he hits with power and he has to accept a trade to a team. That team has to be in the playoff hunt and he has to start. Why would go to a team and sit . Hernandez is at his highest point for a trade let’s get it done.

  23. I will avoid the temptation to go into one of my long, point by point defenses of my thoughts regarding Herrera. I’ll keep it simple: without DRAMATIC improvement of his contact ability or plate discipline, or preferably both, he has no shot. Won’t happen, can’t happen. His current course is CERTAINLY unsustainable.

    But he is, yes, still young enough to work on holes in his game, and he does, yes, have some decent tools. If you want to make a case for him, it looks like this:

    (1) Double the BB rate, and at least knock the K rate under 20%, preferably a bit lower. This would still be marginal, but at least within the realm of a real major league hitter.

    (2) Keep up a well above average BABIP. No way he can maintain his current rate, but maybe (maybe) he can maintain a rate in say the .330 range.

    (3) Maintain his current mid range power (more than that is extremely unlikely given his size/frame).

    (4) Develop into a slightly above average defensive center fielder.

    All of that would make him an average or maybe even slightly above average major league center fielder. Not a star, but a good guy to have. And each of those 4 items are possible. But the chance of all 4 happening is, IMO, low.

    Addendum:

    (1) Interestingly enough, the ZIPs projection system sees him doing pretty much just that – I didn’t see that until after I wrote the comment. Though it projects him as slightly below average, mainly based upon projecting him as a slightly below average base runner and only an average defender. Which leads me to:

    (2) For a guy who is pretty fast, his base running stinks. But looking at it optimistically, that’s another area for possible growth. Davey Lopes, where are you?

    1. The key for me on Herrera is plate discipline. He wasn’t ready imo to be in the majors but has really come on. If and with a lot of players, if he learns to lay off the bad breaking balls. He will be a nice player. I couldn’t never tell how good, all i know is when he gets a pitch in his zone, he really can hit it. hits to all fields. His outfield play isn’t that great, but he is being asked to learn in the toughest place the majors. i think you could also say his base running is a part of his not being ready for majors. but because of rule 5 he must learn here. Guys who improve at the majors league level to me are guys who have a chance to really be good. They are making the adjustments, most don’t make. Your seeing two of the most hype rookies right now not doing as well as they are projected lately. Peterson and Bryant. Now if they are the great players we think they are they will make the adjustments. Baseball is a constant league of adjustments. Larry Anderson said it the other day if you have a weakness they will find it and it will kill you if you don’t adjust.

      1. roccom, that’s actually a pretty darn good comment.

        I’m not sure that I see those adjustments yet though. We’ll see. I’d be happy to be wrong.

  24. To add some nuance to my original comment about Herrera … I’d change two things:

    (1) I think he might well spend some time next year in AAA, but I was a little too dismissive on the point, in two senses: one, the Phillies could well analyze it differently than I do, and two, while he indisputably has things to work on, it’s arguable that he can work on those things as easily in the majors as in AAA. I think a lot will depend upon the next two months. If the pitchers adjust to his lack of plate discipline, and if he doesn’t adjust to THAT, we could see a pretty big slump, and an assignment to AAA next year to work on it.

    (2) While absolutely standing behind my basic point – he CAN’T be successful long term with his current BB/K ratio, and he’s not exactly a budding star even if he fixes that – I may have slightly underestimated his chances of doing just that. If he can get that ration to closer to 1 to 2, he has enough tools otherwise to be a decent center fielder.

    As for Quinn … obviously he has questions to answer, primarily health related, and he hasn’t played above AA. But they are somewhat similar players, except that Quinn has more speed, is better defensively and probably has somewhat better plate discipline. Herrera has IMO no compelling advantages to counter that, aside from health and having performed decently at a higher level.

    1. I can see Herrera improving his K rate based on his style of hitting and having that unique ability to swing very late and foul off questionable strikes. If he can drop it into the 15-17% range it will serve him well..
      But on the same token…..because of those same late defensive swings, I cannot see him raising his BB rate, from around the 4% mark. He will instinctively swing at the close balls, and just keep fouling them off.
      Who knows….. can he be a 3/4 win MLB hitter with one parameter better and the other no change?

      1. I think the short answer is no. The best case (given your scenario) would, I think, be a guy who manages to scrape by as a decent regular (2 win) for a couple of years until he slows down a little. Basically Shawon Dunston. And even that is far from guaranteed.

      2. One data point here: so far, 50% of pitches to Herrera have been in the zone, versus a league average of 45%. What will happen when pitchers stop giving him pitches to hit? He will adjust or fail.

  25. Dugan & Altherr may both end up as 4th outfielders, but combined, they both may be a serviceable outfielder, considering their splits. “A legit .300 hitting centerfielder with power and speed” Williams will be in one of the corners, not in CF, especially after Quinn returns.

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