Open Discussion: Week of August 3rd

Here’s an open discussion thread so the minor league posts don’t get cluttered with Phillies’ talk and other topics.

  • Jonathan Papelbon, Colbert Hamels, and Ben Revere were traded by the Phillies for eight players.
  • CF Jordan Danks was promoted to the Phillies.
  • The Phillies keep winning.  Their lead over Miami for the first pick in the draft is down to 2.5 games.
  • Several Phillies will pass through revocable waivers for some possible August trades.  Look for the Phillies to try and sneak anyone not named Ken Giles, Maikel Franco, or Aaron Nola through waivers.

185 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of August 3rd

  1. What is there to talk about? Let’s see. The trading deadline is gone. We have a month to evaluate some of the new guys. We can salivate on Alfaro but he probably won’t play this year. We can start to think about the August Waivers but that is going to be a long hard trudge. We can talk about the hot streak for the big club but we all know it’s just smoke and mirrors. We can lick our chops and dream about the future but that is still a little (or maybe a lot) muddled. We can talk about the new GM, the new manager but Philly.com will be full of that. We can talk about who will go to Arizona Fall ball. We can talk about how much money will be available to spend in the next few years.

    It’s open season so talk about it all!!!

  2. Was really pissed listening with the MLB At Bat app to the Ranger’s radio broadcaster, Eric Nadel, in the first inning of Cole Hamel’s debut with the Rangers on Saturday. SS Elvis Andrus made a very good play to end the top of the inning and Nadel says, “…now THAT’S the kind of support Cole didn’t get in Philadelphia!”. I looked at the highlight later and it wasn’t close to some of the great plays Freddy Galvis has made.

  3. I’ll be interested to see how much Utley plays after he comes of LV rehab. Now that he can’t vest his 500AB, only reason to play him is to highlight an August waiver trade. Chemistry right now says he should be PH only.

    1. Utley , IMO, should get 6/7 games in a row to showcase what he can provide a contending team. Perhaps he will get hot in that period.

  4. Another interest bellman, is who will be at instructs this fall. i’d love to have the time to stay a month in Clearwater this fall to go to the complex. i think this year will probably have the best roster of all time from Mid-September to Mid-October. fun stuff.

  5. The Phillies are actually in a great position to become an elite team in a few years.
    1. Top 10 farm system with 6-7 top 100 prospects and quality depth.
    2. 1:1 pick coming up with rest of draft and largest international bonus pool should make them easily a top 5 and maybe top 3 farm.
    3. Insane amount of roster flexibility. By end of 2016, could have $130+ million in annual payroll to give out.
    4. Two long term building blocks already producing in the majors.

    The transition has been painful, but I am very encouraged about our future.

      1. Pilspan I have been reading a lot about next years draft. I feel barring any injuries. there are three to four really good pitching prospects. Only problem is two are high school. When I said really good I mean top of rotation guys. all have 95 plus velo. with good control. which I love. so I think, and its only a opinion one thru 5 will be good for pitchers and it could get better or worse. The only problem would be with a hs kid if he signs or not. which could be huge.

            1. I’m going to sound like a broken record but it HAS to be Groome. I saw him as a 15 yr old throwing 92-94 (ZERO effort), 2 scouts said basically the same thing. Think Brady Aiken (pre injury/injury concern) but with more upside . . One even brought up Kershaw as a comp.

          1. I always forget the kid from new jersey Groome. I heard he is really good. its him and pint out of hs. That I have read the most about in pre drafts. along with puk.

          2. HS pitchers vs college pitchers are real long range gambles.
            More college pitchers have success at the MLB level then Hs pitchers…and earlier.

      2. For me it’s the difference in team pool money ($4-5 million) from #1 to #4. Same goes with the pick ($2-3m). Lose room to do what HOU did.

        MIA has 10 games with PHL to close the season while MIL only has 3 with PHL.

        1. The top pick in recent years has signed for a discount so it may influence the decision in terms of signability.

          Not sure what the discounts have been for the 2-4 spots but the top pick has not been getting slot in recent years.

          1. That was my point about using that discount to sign another top prospect like HOU did with Daz Cameron.

    1. What concerns me about the future in the division, is that Mets pitching staff. In Thor and Wheeler who they got good returns in trades, drafted Harvey and deGroom great college pitchers, then there is Matz.
      That could be their greatest staff since the Seaver, Koosman, Gentry, Ryan days..

      1. Completely agree. Mets are going to be a force. That staff might have 5 Aces all under 26 yo. Can easily build a contending team with that. Very impressive rebuild.

      2. People should be concerned about the Mets. Harvey, deGrom, Syndegaard, Matz and Wheeler have the most potential, top to bottom, of ANY rotation I can ever remember. Each has the ability to become (or already is) an ace. I don’t ever recall anything like that with a group of young pitchers – it’s nearly unfathomable. That said, the odds are that it won’t pan out that way, but they have mind boggling potential. I’ve never seen anything like it in the almost 45 years (was that out loud? Geez I’m getting old) I’ve been following baseball. But since it’s pitching and not hitting (possibility of further injury, unexpected ineffectiveness, etc. . . .), the odds of things going as planned are not great, but they don’t have to go perfectly for the Mets to have a scary good rotation; in fact, they already do.

        1. You are right about the 5 Aces but remember ” stuff happens”.

          I would be concerned about Harvey. Stats say pitchers are good for an average of 600IP after TJ. Can’t see him doubling that number.

          1. joe2…agree….already see the decline of Strasberg, and Zimmerman went further then the 600 IPs, I think he is around 850plus since his TJ. That seems to be an issue with those high 90 velo guys. The rate now is 1/3rd of them end up with TJ, no matter how much the teams try to limit their IP..

          2. That’s why most of the great teams in baseball history are built on hitting. As great as the Braves were, they didn’t have a dynasty. Nor did the great early 1950s Indians team. Nor did the great Mets teams of 1969 or 1986 (although 86 was just a great team all around) – both of which were built primarily on pitching. It’s so much easier to project a team of hitters and I think there’s less risk with hitters. I’d rather build a team like the Cubs and add pitching than build a team like the Mets and add hitters.

            1. Okay catch lets assume your right about hitting. The 2016 draft from what I read has not only great pitching .but some real good college outfield bats. Do you take the bat or the pitcher all things being equal?

            2. What would you call SF A good pitching or hitting team ? They won 3 out the last 5 world series. I think it’s pretty close most teams that win the world series have an ace of the that does well . The phillies it was Cole and the bullpen was lights out after the 7 ing.

        2. Things happen. Remember the Cubs rotation in the early 00’s? Prior+Wood+Zambrano=multiple Cy Youngs and World Series titles. Or, not.

      3. While the Mets have the makings of a dream rotationals long as the cash strapped Wilpon is the owner they will have difficulty putting a complete team together.

        1. I thought they were pretty much out of the woods with the Madoff situation or will be in the near future. The Mets are a good cash cow when they play well and draw fans. It’s still New York and they have the ability to generate big revenue and apparently their TV deal is favorable too. Expect the Mets to be big spenders when the time comes.

          1. There was an interesting piece at Fargraph recently about how the Mets are still operating as a small market team.

      4. You forgot Matlack from the old days and he was a West Chester Pa product. I saw him when he was in High School.

      5. There entire team is getting old fast the defense will start get worse a log with speed and offense. They might need to use a couple of the pitchers to get some younger offense. The nats are younger and have a good pitching staff to. Then you have St.louis , SF , the Dodgers who all seem to have great sys in place .

        1. They do have Conforto, Dom Smith and Matt Reynolds ..all prospects who will help them at some point.

    2. Yup, agreed, I’ve been saying this for a few months, most recently with regard to how attractive of a job this should have been for Andy MacPhail.

    3. Would you count Giles as a building block? I mean having a homemade closer is a lot cheaper than paying for one.

    4. I’m more optimistic that I was, but not nearly as optimistic as you are.

      1 – Okay, sure.
      2 – They’ll get a good pick. Bonus is nice but will it be used efficiently? I think top 3 is really aggressive – deep and will be getting deeper, but still lacking elite prospects other than Crawford.
      3 – Yeah, not worth what it once was.
      4 – This is, compared to other potential contenders, a negative. As in “only two.” The organization still has a much below par amount of young major league talent. Though it is an improvement over last year.

      Left out is the ownership and front office – some improvements, glimmers of hope there, but I’m still taking a wait and see approach.

      1. On where the system will be … to be more clear, I think their position going forward depends as much upon whether anyone develops into an elite prospect as upon the future high draft position and international bonuses … if someone takes the leap forward to elite status next year … most likely candidates are the three new guys, along with Randolph and Kilome – then I can see them being regarded as top 5 or top 3.

        And of course at the end of the day it isn’t about where the system is ranked but what the system produces. At this point, there’s still a deficit of guys who look like future “star” type players. But that could change, either through development or future drafting/international signing.

        1. Larrry….in all due respects……not sure what to make of Kilome and all the buzz.
          All seem to have rated very high top ten and climbing…..on just a SSS….which as metric guys is a big trap to fall into.
          He is so far out….four levels at least….20-years old and stateside has not pitched over 50 innings in a year so far….and if he projects as a fast-burner, say like a Luis Severino….he should be moved up thru the lower levels to AA very fast.
          He has the frame and velo to be an impact player…..but there have been others like that….like to see him get at least 100 IP in one season before anointing him as the next Phillies ace.

          1. I know pitching is not what you analyze for projection…since they are so fluid in their development with an assortment of injuries that could change things quite quickly

          2. Kilome does look good. I’ve seen him several times this year. However he isn’t even one of Williamsport’s top three. That would be Gueller (5-1, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), Arteaga (4-0, 3.07, 1.16) and Taveras (4-2, 2.62, 1.31).

    5. It all depends on what type of staff Mcphail puts together. We need stronger scouts and coaches on the minor league level.

  6. I think two things have to happen to make it faster. We need to find a young outfielder with power. Sign a another outfielder with some power and hit on a ace in the draft next year. I am only spending money next year on a younger pitcher or outfielder. That why I mention Cuban players if we can find one over 23 and he has power that would be great imo.

  7. It seems to me everyone thinks that Tocci isn’t going to make it because he is to small, muscle mass wise. He seems to have the tools to be a good or better mlb cf.

    If am correct he is still 19 and will be 20 later this summer. He has been in the organization since 16. So he basically grew up away from his family. Could this be a reason he hasn’t put on weight yet, I’m sure being a teenager and living with in another country and also being a professional at such a young age could cause some kind of stress.

    1. By all accounts, Tocci works his but off to add muscle in the offseason. It has started to pay off (SSS from A+ aside, his ISO has grown every season), but it seems he doesn’t have a frame that easily adds weight. I’m very bullish on his growth at the plate this year, and see him as a future big leaguer, but at this point I question whether he’ll ever have significant pop in his bat.

      1. I listened to a really interesting interview that someone here posted with a minor league writer about Tocci and what the writer said was consistent with what we’ve been saying. He basically said that Tocci was one of the most divisive prospects in the minors because while people love the skills nobody knows if he’ll fill out enough to have the type of strength to become a regular. He has great baseball skills, but these are legitimate and lingering concerns. What people who haven’t seen him in person don’t understand, is that it’s not just that he’s really skinny. It’s his frame and everything about him. He’s not skinny like Eric Davis was or even Ted Williams was at one point – those guys were thin but had nice angular frames that they used to generate power. Tocci (right now, at least), is just not built like a postion player – he’s built more like one of those Ethiopian marathon runners. Skinny little shoulders, skinny frame, skinny arms, skinny legs – he looks like an 8th grader out there. Now maybe he’ll fill out and broaden – who knows, but he’s almost impossible to project right now.

        1. Are their possibly photos of family members that could give a clue to Tocci’s later physical development?

          1. I think Tocci will be fine……look at old photos of Garry Maddux as a Giant prospect, Doug Glanville at Penn, and if you can find them Alex Rios….they were like Tocci, maybe a buck 75 at the most in their late teens, and they seem to develop into decent MLB players.

            1. Glanville and Maddux are good comps, Thome is not. He is not, not, not going to turn into Jim Thome – you couldn’t ask for two more physically dissimilar people.

      2. This past offseason was the first one where the team put him on a real program to add weight. Before they were just letting him gain (or not gain) naturally. I’m not sure how much more weight they’re hoping he puts on, but I like Tocci and think that if he can develop even 30 power, he has a chance to be a regular as long as his defense is as advertised.

  8. Post trade deadline

    Top 10:

    01. JP Crawford
    02. Jake Thompson
    03. Nick Williams
    04. C Randolph
    05. Jorge Alfaro
    06. Franklyn Kilome
    07. Zach Eflin
    08. Roman Quinn
    09. Carlos Tocci
    10. Jonathan Arauz

    1. I might flip Williams and Thompson (and perhaps Quinn and Eflin), but overall I like this list. I particularly love the aggressive placement for Arauz, who is the best looking 16-year-old we’ve had since Dom Santana. My top 10 would probably include the exact same 10 players.

      Reader top 30 is going to be fun this year … there are legitimate big league talents running well into the teens all of a sudden.

    2. VOR…..why Arauz so high as a 16/17-year old? Understand ceiling vs proximity, but for him seems a SSS at this point.

      1. Scouts are very high on Arauz. He fields a premium position well, his approach (7/14 BB/K) is very good for a 16-year-old, and he’s showing power (.173 ISO) and a hit tool (his .279 average is accompanied by a pedestrian .310 BABIP). All the signs are there for what could be a special player.

      2. I believe Arauz deserves placement at #10, based mostly on the way they’ve handled him so far. He is a true 16 year old, that has hit in a top 3 spot all year in the GCL. He has held his own and outperformed any 16 year old the Phillies have had since Santana. He has projection in his body, but he is slugging like he is 18 or 19 years old. If Arauz was a higher profile signing, he’d easily be considered top 10 by everyone.

    3. MattWink the Wizard has Arauz at 26 today.

      26. Jonathan Arauz, SS, GCL
      Age: 16
      Stats: 26 G 112 PA .284/.339/.461 8 2B 2 3B 2 HR 8 BB 14 K
      ‘What Happened: There was momentum this offseason that Arauz, the third of the three July 2 Latin SSs, was the best of the bunch. So far he is making those people look smart. He is one of the youngest players in pro ball and won’t turn 17 for another few days. Outside of his lack of physicality, his age doesn’t show in his game. He has an advanced approach and average or better tools in everything but speed. He should be able to stick at short, but if not, he definitely can play second base. There is a lot of ceiling here for Arauz.
      What Next: Baseball is a game of attrition and adjustments and that is no different for Arauz. He will need to hold up for the rest of the season in ABs while still making good contact. In addition to making normal game adjustments Arauz is a better left handed hitter than right handed hitter, he won’t face many LHPs in GCL so he will need to make most of opportunities.
      Preseason Ranking: 43
      ETA: 2020’

      1. “Outside of his lack of physicality” – I don’t know what Matt means by this. Arauz has a great build when compared to recent LA middle infielders who have come through the Complex like Canelo, Cuicas, Cumana. He looks better built than Mora in Clearwater/Reading. He lookes bigger/better built than fellow 2014 signees Gamboa and Brito. While I temper my excitement over the accomplishments of the 16-year old Arauz, it is his physical build that leads me to overlook his youth and believe that he might progress as well or better than his contemporaries.

        1. Then have to assume his listed weight of 147 lbs is really a lot less then he actually does weigh.

    4. Can’t really disagree with this much. I’d have Pinto as my #10 but Arauz probably isn’t far behind. I’d like to see some more scouting reports on him before I bump him up that high.

      1. I considered Pinto at #10, but stuck with Arauz. With Pinto’s size, I don’t know if he’s going to be a Starter yet, and guys like Lively, Pivetta, Biddle, Imhoff and Asher haven’t really separated themselves.

  9. Anon, I have no problem with your list, and I have high hopes for Kingery. I am still counting on getting 1.1 in the Draft, and I know the top Pitchers that are projected. There could be a top of the rotation SP amongst them.

  10. So I got to attend my first Phillies affiliate milb game on Saturday as the Fightins were in New Hampshire. And while I don’t have an expertly-trained eye as some of you have, after years of benefiting from your great content, I thought the least I could do is offer what I did see while leading a family of 4 through a great night for baseball.

    I got to witness Nick Pivetta’s first (inauspicious) game in the org. He looked uncomfortable from the get-go. While he did breeze through his first inning, the rest of his outing was more reflective of his warmup before the game. Balls kept getting by Knapp which attracted more attention since the bullpen was down the left field line and balls were trickling to the backstop. Knapp finally said he couldn’t see because of the setting sun, but when Dave Lundquist provided some shade it didn’t seem to help. I can’t imagine Pivetta had any confidence throwing to his new receiver. Fitting that his new jersey didn’t have his name on it yet because he really looked out of place. Hopefully we can chalk this performance up to being a newbie and it’s not a sign of thing to come.

    Jimmy Cordero also had his org debut with similar results. Prior to the game I wasn’t aware that he could throw in triple digits. And I didn’t even notice that he was until the wife said, “That scoreboard must be broken. It says one mph.” Love that girl. I don’t know if it had anything to do with his performance (and I didn’t see anything in the media about it) but he essentially changed dugouts during this series. And he was now a visitor pitching against some guys who knew something about him.

    Balls getting by Knapp continued in the game too. It made me wish that Chooch would retire and become a roving instructor. But he was a treat to watch with a bat in his hands though – he really looks like he knows what he’s doing. And he had a really strong throw to nail a baserunner on a play that looked like was taking a long time to develop until he let go of it.

    Really enjoyed getting to see Crawford as well. While he did pop up a couple times, his first inning single up the middle probably had the starting pitcher dirty his shorts. I was surprised to see how many shifts are employed at this level. JP’s groundout was to the 2B playing in shallow left field. In the field he handled a couple of chances with ease. One of the few things he has to learn might be when to spit on pitches.

    I don’t remember it being talked about (and I don’t remember seeing it on video) but Perkins has a really noisy stance – it actually looks juvenile. I can’t imagine he has any idea where his hands are once the ball gets to him. You’d think that would be something they’d work on.

    I would like to thank you all for prepping me for years so that I could enjoy the game much more with a working knowledge of some of these guys!

      1. Saw Knapp in Bowie about 10 days ago and he impressed me with his gloveside ability to stop balls in the dirt; a little less so with pitches to his throwing hand side. Liked his bat. I wanted to throw this in so readers don’t get the idea Knapp is a disaster behind the plate.

        1. Good point. I have to admit that I was unimpressed with Knapp when he came back after his rehab and just DH-ed in Clearwater in 2014. He looked terrible at the plate, but he was coming off surgery. Lino was the full-time catcher in 2014, and he looked, well almost average. But he was following Rupp and Moore who were good defensive catchers, so the standard was set high.

          When Knapp came back this year, he looked better defensively than 2014 Lino. Now, I read that Lino is a better defensive receiver than the Lino I remember. So, it is possible that Knapp can become better, too.

          Offensively, Knapp continued the success he had at Lakewood last season through Clearwater and on to Reading this season.

    1. Thank you for the update. I’ve been wondering about Perkins. He was great to watch in Clearwater. The “noise” you speak of is new. His hands were much “quieter” when he was with the Threshers. Of course back then he hit for average with moderate long-ball power, and too few walks for most readers. But he also maintained a low K rate.

    2. I don’t know the deal with Perkins. He hit MUCH better at Reading last season. Did he revert to an inferior stance/approach? The difference in performance isn’t subtle: his walk rate is down by a third, off 80 points in BA and 130 points in OPS. Possibly previously lucky BABIP taking a turn to the south for him. I see his first two games in August weren’t good ones. After starting the season slowly in April and May, his bat picked up in June and July, but his repeat season in AA doesn’t match his first. I say BABIP turned on him, because he really hasn’t been as good ever in his Phillies career as he was during that relatively SSS time in Reading last year. He’s a college 6th rounder, so I count anything we get from him as a major leaguer as gravy.

      1. The Phillies altered his swing (I think they added a toe-tap) to get more power. It’s worked, but yeah, his BABIP has taken a nosedive from an unsustainable .393 to a maybe unlucky .271.

        On the bright side, his OPS has risen significantly every month through July.

  11. Watching Sunday’s Phillies game, I couldn’t help but notice Dom Brown playing a pretty good RF. He stayed on two fly balls hit directly into the sun, and made an instinctive thrown to hold a runner at third early in the game. Man, if he could just tap into his potential as a hitter and become the next Jose Bautista or Chris Davis — guys who took a few years to put it all together.

    1. Brown has improved a lot as a fielder. Revere had improved as a fielder. Herrera has improved as a fielder. Asche has improved as a fielder. My conclusion? These players are working hard and getting some good outfield instruction.

      1. I saw quite a lot of Brown at Reading and Allentown. He was this good a fielder, before he was switched to LF. Everyone assumes LF is less demanding and the switch is easy, but it definitely was a problem for Brown. His performance was night and day between LF and RF at Allentown.

    2. He’s had a funny season. The metrics bear out your impression of his fielding – much improved. His K rate is down,.Two big pluses. But he’s had essentially no power until the past week, and his BB rate is down. Plate discipline data is awful. His BABIP is, as it has been for most of his major league career, below average. Looking at his batted ball data, his line drive rate is indeed a little on the low side, but he seems to have fixed another problem – IF pop ups are way down. Of course SS is low.

      I am pretty much in the “time to cut the cord” camp, but if he finishes strong, maybe not. It’s not as if there is an obvious RF option next year.

  12. There is an interesting link showing MiLB rankings for the Phillies since the trade dead and how they players were acquired. http://i.imgur.com/4smTYQK.png The biggest thing that stands out to me is Tocci wayyyy down at 19. I can’t imagine a player with his potential being outside the top 10 for our system.

    1. I can – see my comments above. The question is not his age or his skills, it’s his projection. That said, ranking him the latter part of the top 10 is more than defensible.

    2. Good guys added to system, but also different raters. The guys having Tocci at #19 now aren’t the same guys who had him at #5/6 earlier. I’m of the view that as of mid-season, prior to all the trades, Tocci was the #5 guy on our farm.

    3. Tocci is polarizing. I am slowly coming around on him until I think about his likely projected comp. if your an MLB outfielder and don’t hit for power, you better steal bases. He doesn’t project to do either at an elite level. So I invision Tocci as Ben Revere without stolen bases and with better defense. That is his ceiling IMO. And Ben is a elite contact hitter. So even that might be a stretch. So maybe Tocci is Ben-lite at the plate (with low steals) and great defense. Is that really a great player? If he fills out he is likely to get slower. So unless you think he grows into 15-20 HR power, I don’t see him having a high OB% in the majors. Just really hard to talk yourself into a great projection on him IMO.

      1. I’m in the same place you are. Wait and see, but unti he shows notable gains in strength or power, he does not project well, although he already has more power than Ben Revere so I think a better comp for his current projected upside is like Ender Inciarte, Doug Glanville or Garry Maddox – he’s that type of player. A possible solid regular if everything goes well. But he is polarizing to be sure.

  13. Knapp is one of those catchers of late that seems to have a good bat but lacks great defensive abilities behind the plate.
    I looked at some of the other highly rated catchers….at or above AA…near major league ready….and they all seem to hit but lack certain defensive skills….though most however have cannon for arms.
    Schwarber, Alfaro, Sanchez, Nottingham, Contreras…and except for Contrerars they all are 200 lbs plus.

    1. He missed so much time at catcher, because of the elbow injury. The bat should be expected to be ahead of the defense.

  14. Out of curiosity (and even going back to before the deadline)–why would Giles not be a trade candidate? Logic holds that you should get a higher return than on a closer on high dollar contract and a closer is a luxury on this team for the next few years. I guess there’s an argument that he hasn’t proven himself as a ninth-inning guy yet (whatever that means).

    It seems like the benefit of having a closer at low cost through his controllable years is becoming less of an incentive as closer contracts seem to be trending downward….

    1. Yeah, you should get a higher return on a low-cost, young closer with years of team control. Problem is, those who are strong believers in the closer concept aren’t going to pay for a closer who doesn’t actually have a track record of closing. Papelbon got almost all the closer opportunities. Giles is going to need a sustained body of good results, probably about a year, as the closer, before other GMs regard him as such. For now, Giles counts as a just-establishing himself setup guy, for those who are big into reliever roles. He’s young. I’d keep him rather than have the Phillies go wild in $/prospects/lost #1 pick to trade for or sign a FA closer in a couple of years. With Tirado we could soon have two, very hard-throwing young closer types.

      1. It’s been reported that Tirado will be stretched out next year. He was a starter until the BJs moved him to the pen just this year.

    2. I would guess/guess that Giles’ name came up with Texas. But other than adding Mazara and taking someone like Williams out of the package, I don’t know what Giles would have brought. By all accounts, Mazara was never a consideration. A bunch of proven closers didn’t get snapped up.

      1. yes it is. I really did not start to actively follow the farm (and this site) at all until 2011. It was around then that Dom Brown was getting all the hype. I also started to realize then that wow, we have been sending the store to try and keep us on top.

        When the wheel fell off Howard in the last game with the Cards it was like hey what is going on here for the next 4 years….its nice to have a farm system that is stocked and to see an upswing in even the big club after bottoming out.

        I just hope we don’t see the old days (1964 – 1978, 1984 – 2006) where it took decades to turn the corner.

    1. Since I saw Tirado at the complex Saturday, my guess would be that he will join the Threshers when they return from their road trip. Looking for transaction tomorrow.

      Eickhoff was activated by LHV, Gutierrez was released.

  15. Williams and Thompson both starting tomorrow at Reading, Tirado will pitch when needed, not sure if he is at Clearwater or Reading but think its probably Clearwater.

    1. It does have jet, but it is a lot more limited since 2011. Prior to 2011 you could go almost anywhere from there. They built a new bulding there in the late 90’s and it was by far better then Harrisburg and if you factor in the problems at Philly and Newark, better than them.

      Unfortunately something happened there in 2011…hmmm sound familiar?

      1. My favorite airport now is Trenton. I have had good fortune with Frontier airlines. There small, but they have decent jet service out of their. Walk right from your car to the gate. 0 traffic!

    1. rocco…….since when are you using airports to get around! I thought you used the Broad Street Subway. 🙂

  16. Romus I would never use that subway. They don’t tell you half the times, that people get robbed and beat up on that thing. I rather walk

  17. Hey Rocco, Romus, Jim, or anyone… Might have missed something but where are folks ranking J Ortiz? Only have seen MLB top 30, but he is not mentioned? You would think with all the press he was getting when the Phils signed him and traded for a higher slot to eat his 4.5M that someone would have him in their top 30?

    1. Jhailyn Ortiz:
      Matt Winkelman
      August 3, 2015

      Given his lack of track record and obvious risk, he might sneak in around Luis Encarnacion. Unless he comes out on fire in Instructs I am likely to be conservative on the offseason ranking with him. After a year in the GCL he could be way up on these rankings, it is just a reflection of the risk in a 16 year old kid with no pro track record.

  18. Love to see the Phils trade for a low cost high upside guy like Will Meyers and make him your everyday right fielder next year and hopefully years to come.

    1. If they can get Wil Myers for some legtimiate pieces and an arm, they should do it. I’ve always been a big fan of acquiring guys who have solid minor league track records, still have the same physical skills but have stalled. Myers has true, middle-of-the-order potential. He’s not a good fielder but bats like that don’t grow on trees. I wonder what you would need to give SD to get that done without significantly harming your farm system and your rebuild effort. Interesting thought.

      1. If they let Kimbrel go in a trade, AJ Preller is a gambler it seems…he may want to gamble on a Ken Giles. Though this last year he seems to want to spend the money more then save it, but it has backfired on him so far..

        1. It’s hard to say any GM in baseball has done a worse job in the last year than he has. He traded away prospects to get “win-now” guys and the guys he got haven’t been very good on the whole. Who knows what he would do?

          1. Sox GM Ben Cherington’s could give him a run for his money….his Sox 2015 season has not been that exceptional, and also with Sandoval, Porcello and Ramirez as the key big name signings /acquisitions.
            But a WS title a few years ago gives him some leeway and breathing room.

            1. I actually don’t think it is Ben’s fault. I think the Sox are another dysfunctional front office with too many chefs in the kitchen all having more input than they should. I think John Henry is a bit full of himself and caught up in the espousing of Bill James.

              I think its why Theo wanted out of there.

              They obviously have a good youth scouting department.

            2. Yeah, I’m going to give Ben a little pass. A lot of things just didn’t go as planned even though they were set up well – prospects fell through that should have hit, guys got hurt, etc. . . . . The only thing I strongly criticize is paying a lot of money for #3 and 4 starters like Rick Porcello. Whose idea was that? It’s one thing to develop a #3 and have him pitch cheaply while young, it’s another thing to give a guy like that $80 million. What a waste.

            3. More than a few people saw the weak points in the Bosox strategy. Not just their failure to get a true # 1 pitcher, but also putting Ramirez in left and not keeping Sandoval on a weight plan.

            1. Preller clearly gets to own that debacle as does Beane. I’m still dumb founded by his trade of Donaldson.

            2. The Donaldson trade made sense for a number of reasons.

              http://grantland.com/the-triangle/josh-donaldson-trade-oakland-toronto-billy-beane/

              http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/12/4/7319921/josh-donaldson-baseball-oakland-athletics-toronto-blue-jays-trade

              The A’s are having a good year but their record in one run games is horrible.

              11-25 this year in one run games. By far the worst in the majors.

              Then you have the +31 run differential.

              Next closest is Toronto with an 11-23 record in one-run games but they have a +110 run differential. They are just blowing out teams but if you keep it close chances are you will win.

            3. Be consistent Catch, if you are going to burn Amaro then you have to burn Cherington also. The Red Sox WS title was lightning in a bottle like the 1993 Phillies-all players had career years.

    2. I been high on Myers ever since he was in TB Sys . This might hurt but maybe Quinn, Canelo plus Lively.maybe too Much Myers can hit for Avg and Power.

      1. Tim, Wil Myers has a injured wrist the last two years and will likely never return to his rookie year form. I would pass on trading for him.

        1. Yes but it took him years to recover his performance for the Phillies and Nationals. You just can’t get by like that in todays game.

  19. I Don’t mind I made a mistake on Williams. but now he is getting Ridiculous. He is hitting 288 one of the highest average on team.

    1. You could still be right Rocco we all remember that Tyler Greene that had a really nice GCL then did nothing past that.

      1. Ah, I remember Tyler Greene mania … he was actually 11th in the Reader Top 30 following his rookie ball season in 2011 (ranked one spot ahead of first-rounder LGJ, who had yet to play a professional game at that point).

        I just looked up his stats from that year … he hit .276 with a .444 BABIP. The gods were certainly smiling on him there …

  20. 315 in high school I thought the same thing at first. Then I was reading where this was his first yr of just playing baseball. He was a Wr on the football team he has plus speed. He arm is avg but his set up is fast and he was MVP of the Area Code game. He also said he had a clean swing . Why 3rd base instead of 2nd or LF I have no idea.

  21. Here’s a discussion point: Can Aaron Nola’s pitching motion be adjusted? Right now reports say (particularly an article on CrossingBroad) that his angles are bad, and he will go down the TJ path if not adjusted.

  22. I’ll let Matt Winks’ response to a similar question be the answer here:

    “I think Crossing Broad is an idiot and anyone who tells you that a pitcher will 100% break is selling you his agenda. Nola has a fairly unique delivery because he has a fairly unique body. He is double jointed in his shoulder and his extremely athletic. He repeats his delivery very well and it is low effort.

    If you want to say Nola will get hurt because pitchers get hurt, you are just betting on numbers so you can look smart later, but there is nothing about Nola that suggests that he is at any great risk.”

    http://philliesminorthoughts.com/aaron-nola-and-consistency/

      1. Unfortunately, as Ryan Howard’s Achilles Heal was a big factor in adversely affecting the Phillies fortunes for years to come, Justin Verlander’s downward slide in 2013 began Dave Dombrowki’s demise in Detroit.

    1. Dave Dombrowski made the same mistakes as Ruben and the Phillies made in giving out massive contracts to players in the last half of their career. Fortunately our contracts will be finished next year but Detroit’s are on the books for a long time.

      1. Dombrowski signed Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Anibel Sanchez and Justin Verlander to long term contracts which only Cabrera is living up to. He has also traded for big contracts in Ian Kinsler and the recently traded David Price. The Detroit Tigers did not win a World Series although the Florida Marlins did in 1997.

  23. Plus,Dave Dombrowski should’ve traded for Papelbon,either last year or the year before,when their bullpen blew too many saves.
    He probably overvalued his prospects,same as Boston did earlier this year.

    1. I thought L.A. could have done some business with Detroit at the deadline if the Tigers gave the Dodgers a 48 hour window to extend Price and Cespedes as part of a trade. In doing that, the Tigers could have gotten some MLB talent back and kept the window open on an aging team. For the Dodgers it’s only money.

      On a different note, I hope the Phils, with first right of refusal in the NL, are keeping an eye on the waiver wire. The Phils could stand to improve the top of the rotation for next year and Matt Garza would be a good add for the 2 years left on his deal. August could be better than the off-season free agent market and the Phils could offer the Brewers pitching prospects (Sev. Gonzalez Matt Imhof, Mark Leiter).

      1. Garza number this year aren’t good and he is thirty one. but the three guys who you want to give them. imo aren’t major league pitchers. I Really would want a younger guy, that would grow with the team. But its a nothing prospects for a guy who might give them some quality innings. Not really something to get excited about. imo.

        1. Wouldn’t be a bidding war and the Brewers could only accept a deal or withdraw him from waivers. Right now, the Phils ’16 rotation looks like: Nola-Morgan-Buchanan-Harrison (?) and ?

        2. There’s some serious talent this yr for starting pitching in FA . Just 1 solid pitcher the payroll will be much lower. I’m hoping with new coach and GM .

          1. I think they will pass this off-season on the big ticket FA pitcher and wait until after next season’s crop comes out. Of course David Price would look like nice at the top of the rotation, if the Jays do not re-sign him. IMO, he may be the only one I would pursue.

  24. Franco it’s crime to be that good so young . That’s what the Dodgers get for intentionally walking Hernandez.

    1. If it’s a crime to be that good that young, then Mike Trout must be on death row. But that really was a fun moment. I just really wish they would save these wins for a year where it actually matters…

  25. v1again,I may need to take you up on that bet.If the Phillies get the third pick or lower,I win.

    This team is playing much better than they were,which is exciting for now,but I really want them to tank enough so that we can have the excitement and buildup of picking #1.

    What $ amount would you want to start at?

  26. I haven’t watch a lot of there games. But the one I have watched they are getting good production out of a lot of guys. who just didn’t play for Sandberg. I don’t know the reason. I am really wondering about herdanez, is he just in a groove or has he learned how to get the most out of his ability. He right now is a good leadoff hitter. Galvis isn’t trying to kill every pitch. and is a great fielder. franco has helped. Howard seems to be in a nice groove too. The starters for whatever reason. like Williams tonight are better. and I hate Williams. Baseball is a crazy game. this bunch couldn’t do anything right in the first half of season and now cant do anything wrong.

  27. 2016 rule 5 eligible J Thompson, E Garcia, D cozens, Alexis Rivero, A Pullin, J Valentin, R Pinto, Tocci, Nick Pivetta,Zach Eflin, Kevin Williams, A Knapp, Tom Windle who do you protect on the 40 man? How many who are the 40 now that will be taken off. I say Danks, Williams, Harang, Blanco , Ruf, Rupp, Hernandez, Asche, Brown. Let’s say Crawford up and Galvis is the 2nd base man. Kevin williams for Asche . J Thompson for Williams , A Knapp for Rupp, Nick Pivetta for Harang. It’s a mess

    1. Really not a critical decision to be made 18 months early, you don’t lose every Rule 5 guy you expose to the draft….and normally those playing under the AA level, MLB teams will not want to carry all season on their roster. Still plenty of time to see how things shake out.

    2. Crawford won’t be up, at least not before Sept call-ups. He’s struggling at the plate a bit in AA, his BA down to .254. Williams and Pivetta both need another year to develop. They are both new to AA. Knapp is a possibility but it will be in place of Chooch. Hernandez is your 2B next year and Galvis at SS. You protect Thompson, Cozens, Pinto, Eflin and Williams for sure. Take a chance on Pullin, Valentin and Windle.

    3. There are so many veteran contracts that come off the books after this year and next that I doubt the org will have problems losing guys to Rule 5 because of a lack of space on the 40-man roster.

    1. probably not – he was Pres and GM; it would be a bit of a demotion. I also have mixed feelings about his performance, although he kept them very competitive for a long period of time. I’m not happy about the state in which he left their farm system – they may bottom out for a few years.

  28. The Astros just desinated Dan Straily for assignment who is only 26 years old. He showed some promise with the A’s so I would think the Phillies should be interested.

    1. He would seem to be a good gamble…..but for some reason he had slightly better comm and control in the minors then when he got up to the majors, especially these last few years. Not sure what went on there.

  29. Speaking of DFA’d I wonder if Phils put claim on Vance Worley. He is only 27, has 2 more years of team control and was very popular here. Would rather watch him than Jerome or Harang.

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