Open Discussion: Week of May 25th

Here’s an open discussion thread so the minor league posts don’t get cluttered with Phillies’ talk and other topics.

Jonathan Papelbon made 2 appearances and finished 2 games this week, converting 2 save opportunities.  After 46 games, Papelbon has 18 appearances, 17 games finished, and 11 saves in 11 save opportunities.

Some other random stuff to light the fire –

  • More Papelbon – He has as many or more saves than 14 MLB teams; including contenders such as the Chicago Cubs (11 saves/19 opportunities; Rondon 9/12), Pittsburgh Pirates (11/16; Melancon 10/11), Boston Red Sox (10/16; Uehara 10/11), and Los Angeles Dodgers (10/16; looks like closer by committee).
  • Other contenders with more blown saves than Papelbon (11/11) and the Phillies (12/14) include Houston Astros (18/22; Gregerson 12/13), Washington Nationals (16/22; Storen 14/15), Atlanta Braves (15/20; Grilli 13/14), Detroit Tigers (14/18; Soria 13/14), KC Royals (14/20), Los Angeles Angels (14/21; Street 14/16), Seattle Mariners (13/18; Rodney 12/13).
  • Realistically, it looks like the only teams who would see Papelbon as an upgrade are the Cubs and Dodgers.
  • One last Papelbon fact – in his last 3 innings he has struck out 7 of the 9 batters he retired.
  • Maikel Franco has 2 home runs and 7 RBI in his first 10 games since being called up.
  • Chase Utley has improved to .173/.248/.295/.543.  He’s closing in on Rupp (.196) to shed the ignomity of being the lowest AVG among position players.
  • Chad Billingsley still has more HR (1) than Blanco, Hernandez, Revere, Ruiz, Rupp, and Sizemore.
  • Phillies tied for MLB low 26 HR, but are no longer the NL worst in any of the slash categories with their .241/.295/.351/.650.
  • MLB worst 146 runs scored.
  • Their team ERA continues to drop and has broken through the 4 RPG barrier (3.99).
  • Still allowing the most free passes in the NL (151).
  • Their .413 winning percentage leaves them solidly in the bottom 7 in MLB.
  • Ryan Howard has come to life.  He has the second highest batting average on the team and is starting to pop up on NL leader boards for HR (8th) and RBI (20th).  His slash even looks respectable when compared among all first basemen in the majors, especially his SLG and OPS.  All he needs to do is disguise his hideous BB/K (8/43) ratio.  But there are also a lot of AL DH that he is out-performing.

131 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 25th

  1. I saw a report a few days ago that maybe the Phillies could convince the Angels to deal for Howard and Revere. I would think the Phillies would get something decent in return.

    1. Revere alone may get you Carlos Perez or Jett Bandy….both defensive -first catchers close to mid-20s with experience. But in Rupp, I would think, they already have what either of them may offer.
      If its arms…maybe RHP Victor Alcantara, LHP Hunter Green or RHP Chris Ellis.
      Cannot see what else Revere could bring back…though in Worley and may the Phillies did give up a little more value at that time.

  2. Cant imagine a team with no farm system giving us anything for two guys that have no value.

  3. Why does howard have no value as a dh? if we paid most of the 53 million. I cant believe he isn’t worth a decent prospect . He still has power number to warrant 5 million or more salary,

    1. Age and history. Teams have a preconceived notion regarding Howard which is mostly true.

      Guy cannot hit an offspeed pitch and cannot hit to one side of the field.

      Revere is still under team control and, for his faults, is a decent leadoff hitter. You can easily get more for Revere if a team is weak on their leadoff position.

  4. Revere is worth a low level prospect. Look what the Phillies got for Roberto Hernandez last year. He is worth more than that. If the Phillies pay most of Howard’s remaining contract, they should get a high upside prospect in return.

    1. This seems more or less common sense. Looking at the list, our pitchers don’t do especially well. The other place where FIP falls down is that some pitchers are fly ball pitchers and others get a lot more grounders. That alone should tell us that pitchers have more influence on what hitters do than just the three true outcomes. In a sense, HR rate is a very imperfect measure of GO/Fly ball ratio, so that flyball rates are partly included in FIP calculation, but the fraction of FB that become HRs is not constant, for pitchers or hitters.

      1. Which is part of my argument to others last week when it was claimed that Biddle wasn’t really pitching bad because of his low FIP. FIP or otherwise, he wasn’t pitching well by any other standard

      2. Aside from a few outliers, the HR/FB ratio averages around 10.6% over a large enough sample (multi year sample, that is). xFIP assumes this percentage for all pitchers, and so it essentially brings GB% and FB% into the equation. It’s still a somewhat crude measurement, but it does factor in type of contact.

    2. I think that you can discard most traditional measures for hitting and pitching; instead, focus on just three things to determine effectiveness:
      1. walks,
      2. strikeouts, and
      3. hard contact.

  5. After watching Doobie Herrera for almost three months now…..me thinks he may be related to Willie Montanez…..their swagger seems DNA linked!

    1. I think you may be right on the DNA, similarities for sure. I find it amusing that amidst the flailing at breaking balls in the dirt, he has the guts to point out to the umpire with an arm gesture that a ball is outside of the plate.

      1. Exactly….the guy, if it is possible, has a ‘humble humorous cockiness’ about him.

    1. No, Sunday is usually an off day. If they snuck something in yesterday, I missed it. I’ll see if I can find out something tomorrow when they host the Yankees.

  6. Please bear with my math exercise. I compared the minor league equivalent stats (using Rollins 583 games and Quinn’s 261). I think both are similar in a lot of ways (body type).

    Rollins .261/.328/.383 93 2bs 37 3bs 36 HR 237 rbi 129 stls 40 cs 224bb 266k
    Quinn .268/.348/.390 71 2bs 49 3bs 36 HR 198 rbi 254 stls 76 cs 227bb 530K

    Then Quinn vs. Revere equivalent games in minors ( Revere 403 vs Quinn 261).

    Revere .326/.383/.404 50 2bs 29 3bs 5 HR 158 rbi 160 stls 56 cs 122 bb 143k
    Quinn .268/.348/.390 49 2bs 34 3bs 25 HR 137 rbi 176stls 52 cs 157 bb 367k

    Imagine if Quinn could cut down his K’s?

  7. Jim, love the notes and though I agree that the Cubs are a possible fit for Paps, I don’t think the Dodgers are given Jansen has been nearly unhittable since his return. As of today, I would contend that the Cubs and Mariners are the best fits.

    1. I did a quick look at the Dodgers. No one had more than 3 S/SVO. I agree with you regarding Jansen. And, I don’t really see the Cubs trading for Paps. I’m inclined to believe that he finishes the season with the Phillies unless one of the closers above implodes. My hope is that the Cubs are our trading partner for Hamels. I really like Kyle Schwarber. I saw him last year and was more impressed with him than anyone on their FSL club. I know he might be untouchable, but as we get closer to the 1-year anniversary of his signing date, and if the Cubs can maintain contact with the Cardinals, … Well, I can hope, can’t I?

      1. I would take back the over-priced Edwin Jackson from the Cubs in a deal for Hamels and Papelbon if it enhanced the prospect return. Schwarber, Almora. Baez, Vogelbach if they’re feeling generous.

  8. isn’t time to demote diekman? an over 8 era and a .360 b.a. by left handed batters against him, suggests that he needs to go down and figure something out.

    1. They could put him on the DL with some injury of sorts….then have him work bullpen sessions with Bob McClure, then the obligatory rehab assignments before he comes off the DL

        1. MLB is so far out in LF on this, it is crazy.
          Do not see Phillies taking Phil Bickford….unless they are pulling a fast one on us….but they have not been seen associated with scouting him from front office types.
          Last year, Ruben was seen at LSU games.
          nevertheless, if Kyle Tucker is there at 10…I think I would grab him

            1. This is why I don’t think you will get that Trout-like player. Aiken was the clear number one until he went down with a UCL injury.

              Add in a very weak draft class and nobody has any real idea what anyone is doing. Everyone is all over the place with every pick on the board. There is no real consensus anywhere.

              You may see some interesting draft strategies where teams purposely take under slot guys early to go over later amongst others.

              The scouts will earn their money this year but I do not have high hopes for whoever is taken. The positions that we need (2B, corner OF) are not that attractive in the first round this year.

  9. In Rupp’s defense, Herrera cost him a hit withhis poor baserunning yesterday. He should be closer to .199.

  10. for all the feel-good stories that have come out this week: Franco 1st week, Howard hot-streak, Hamels pitching like #1, the Phillies still would own the #3 pick in draft if season ended today. That satisfies me.

    1. This year draft’s selection, and next years, plus JPC and Nola should be cornerstones, along with all the other present minor-league hopefuls.
      I hope I am not wearing rose-colored glasses.

  11. Colton Murray assigned to Reading Fightin Phils. Tyler Knigge assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs

  12. Opinion on O. Herrera . . . Is this what you expected? Better then expected? Not as good?

    IMO it’s what I expected, maybe a little better. I mean if you think about it he’s a prospect (or lack of being a) making a huge jump to the highest level. If Franco played a full year and put up average numbers he would be given praise and time to develop. Rule 5 picks don’t get luxury 9x outta 10. My opinion with this team you keep him on the 25 man all year. Next year you can throw him in AAA if you want (I’m almost positive you can do that in year 2 without offering him back) or let him continue to develop at the highest level. Either way I think he could be a solid utility man.

    1. I agree with you on the long-term strategy for Herrera, and yes he stays after this year with the Phillies, even if sent to AAA next season.
      And, when you think about it, as a 23-year old rookie thrust into a starting CF position, he really is doing pretty well….defensively and even at the plate.

      1. Yeah. I think most people forget that Rule 5 guys are usually making a big jump and have no ML experience. Also the pressure must be CRAZY knowing you have to play well in order to not be sent back to your former org. minor league system. This is the chance they have always wanted. It’s A TON of pressure.

    2. Next to Galvis and maybe Garcia he’s been a pleasant surprise as imo he’s played well enough so far.

    1. Wow – that surprises even me, but his defensive ability combined with the hit tool and plate discipline are extraordinary, even without the power, which I believe will come (and which we’ve seen in the past).

  13. This may sound stupid but would there be any interest in catcher Ryan Lavarnway who the Orioles designated for assignment? He was a 6th round pick of the Red Sox in ’08. Since it sounds like Tommy Joseph did in fact have another concussion. I’ve never seen so if he’s terrible then so be it but I just thought maybe a low risk move.

  14. Paps finished the game today, a losing 7-0 cause…..I just do not understand why!
    His option clause calls, if for a specific number to be reached…..then the Phillies incur more financial obligations.
    The logic is beyond me.

      1. Yes understand the sharpness aspect…..though, have to wonder if pitching the 8th inning counts as a ‘finish’?

    1. I would disagree with the title. He’s managing a near billion dollar franchise. He’s far from an intelligent guy and has proven it over and over again the past 7 years

      1. I agree with you, Steve. I don’t know how smart he is on a standard intelligence test, but as a baseball executive, he’s a dolt. I thought it was a beyond moronic article. His argument that Ruben is not a dumb person is basically, three-fold.

        First, he suggests that unlike other GMs, Ruben is accessible to the public and answers questions. While true, it is entirely irrelevant and has nothing to do with his baseball acumen. I’ll take the combative, unfriendly, uncommunicative high effective GM any time over the open but bumbling GM we have here.

        Second, he suggests that some of the dumb moves that Ruben made were prompted by Dave Montgomery. While it may be true to a certain extent, there’s no sense that Ruben really fought these moves, but more importantly, it doesn’t excuse or explain his complete incompetence in other areas, including managing the team’s financial situation properly and developing young talent and blending it with more mature talent. Other GMs who are effective have had to deal with more pushy and meddlesome owners and they managed to fight through it and not produce the type of garbage we now have before us – Brian Cashman is a good example of this.

        Third, he gives Ruben a lot of credit for the five year run, saying he made key acquisitions that made that stretch possible. It’s such a stupid argument. Ruben walked into literally the best situation one could imagine as a young GM. A young, talented team with a huge fan base, the possibility of lucrative new TV contract and a supportive and passive ownership group. The team he inherited was on auto pilot. Rather than thinking long-term and making tough decisions, he used the available resources to pay everyone he could and used other future assets to acquire and then pay fair market value for other top stars.

        During the time he has been GM, he has not produced a single solid young regular from the farm system (unless you count Freddy Galvis), he has not produced a single top to middle of the rotation starting pitcher from the farm system, did not get creative and obtain talent from the International free agent pool, (Cuba, Asia) that could come in and help the team, until this winter did not engineer any interesting trades where he acquired substantially more talent than he traded away, has rejected analytics that have resulted in his team and group consistently having a competitive disadvantage, and has really shown no capability of hiring the best managers or coaches. In fact, it is telling and damning that the two most obviously effective coaches that he employed – Lopes and Joyner – left or were fired. That’s not good. Effective organizations identify, reward and retain their best developmental people. And on top of this he’s an arrogant dude – although how he can justify being this way is anyone’s guess.

        So, yeah, by traditional measures he might be intelligent, but as a general manager he is a lot like Ed Stefanski, he’s effectively been pretty stupid. Now, to be fair, he’s done a lot better these last two years – whether that constitutes learning, luck or being free of Montgomery’s influence, but he’s going to have to have one heck of good run to somehow redeem himself. My guess is that he doesn’t make it that far – he probably gets fired this winter.

        My hope is that the Phillies promote a forward looking and nimble executive. Since I’ve been following the team, they’ve only had one guy who fit that bill – Gillick – even though he had his own faults too. Do I think they can and will do it? I don’t know but I’m skeptical. My only hope is that Gillick is smart enough to understand that his next GM has to be someone who understands and uses analytics. We can’t keep living in 1985 when it comes to baseball analysis – it’s killing the team.

        1. catch…very good and a detailed persuasive analysis of Ruben’s tenure.
          You did fail to mention the influence that Charlie had on decision making from 2009 thru 2013 during Ruben’s first years as GM.
          IMO, Ruben worked and deferred to Charlie, could it have been any other way for any other person in this world….Charlie became a Philly legend with the ’08 ring and the total wins as a coach.
          Charlie had preference for veteran preference, so new talent would not have been able to displace five positional places….ss (JRoll), 2nd (Chase), 1st (Ryan), catcher (Chooch), CF(Vic)….then RF became Pence I am sure at the bequest of Charlie.
          Third base was the only open position really for a youngin to come on the scene….but Polanco, Feliz and any other vet was desired.
          Bottom-line Charlie had the most influence on who he wanted on the team from ’09 thru the fall in ’13.

            1. Romus, you are correct in your assessment of Charlie Manuel preferring veterans and not a good manager for a rebuilding team.

        2. Catch while I’ll respect your opinion I think you fail to acknowledge just how dysfunctional the Phillies owners are namely Giles and then it carried over with Montgomery.

          They are too involved too emotional when it comes to their players. To loyal to their past. Every so often they have ventured out of the org for a GM Lee Thomas and then Gillick but they always stumble back to hiring their guy (Wade/Amaro) their puppet.

          That in and of itself makes it unfair to judge Amaro’s baseball acumen. You want to judge him because he chooses to fall on the sword then fine. You want to say he was a dolt to take the job in the first place I agree. He should have held out for a job in another organization where he would have had more autonomy

          But the facts are he grew up in the org and in the area. The family is all here and chances are unless they sell he has a job for life.

          And aside from that you again give the rest of the league too much credit. The Yankees have done nothing since 2009 their farm system is crap aside from Severino and Judge.

          Billy Bean has never won anything but accolades for nothing and has essentially destroyed what was a playoff team that’s some great analytics there boy let me tell you. We need to get him here to run our club…wait no that wouldn’t have worked because Monty would of said ‘wait WTF you want to trade Donaldson for Lawrie no flipping way get out of my office”

          Cherington is proving to be every bit a dolt as Amaro. Where else do you want to go? How about the Astros and how many years of total futility and top 5 picks has it taken them to get what they have today.

          Ah I know the new boy genius in San Diego is gonna make all their problems go away right? Maybe the Diamondbacks LaRussa and Dave Stewart have all the new age answers.

          It’s funny Sabean took the same kind of heat when he took over the Giants. To say the Phillies were a great team when RAJ took it over is so laughable it hurts. They were a decent team that was fortunate to draw the Rays in the WS. They didn’t have the pitching to beat anyone else from the American League that season if they drew them.

          1. dmar you comments about amaro are making me laugh. You have to take amaro and put him up against the teams with that kind of money to spend. Boston, new York yankess. st Louis. we have two titles in 135 years, why cant he do what boston did, unload bad deals and get out from under those contracts? Why cant he put together good scouts. ? we right now have really two good prospects ,Crawford and nola. all the rest are maybes, effin looks like he might be good, windle, cozens, asche, all hopeing they can perform. imo only Crawford is a stud. look at 2012 draft not one player from that draft. I Just don’t understand you love of amaro. we keep blaming Montgomery, giles, and others, but if its true should have had t he balls to tell them its not the right way to run the club, if they want to continue to win. instead t he weasel did nothing. He is bad and this club goes no where with him in charge, keep defending him its funny

            1. I’m glad I make you laugh Rocco. I’m here to keep y’all entertained and challenge the lemmings among you to turn back.

            2. First, in terms of inherting an excellent team, I’m not sure you can do much better than a team that won the WS and went back to another one. 95% of the GMs are replaced due to poor performance. Ruben got lucky and stepped into the role on top because the GM retired. Most GMs would kill for that opportunity. He mismanaged his golden chance into a last place franchise.

              Second, who says Amaro disagreed with Montgomery? My sense is that they were, at least up to the second Utley contract, pretty much in lock step. In any event, he did plenty on his own to justify the criticism, including BOTH Pence trades, the failure to identify and acquire talent and you just name it – he screwed it up or helped screw it up. Why do people on this site apologize for Amaro (or Ed Wade for that matter)? I don’t get it.

              Third, we are all concerned about ownership’s pick of the next GM. No argument from me on that. Their track record is bad and they are so conservative and backward thinking. That’s what you get when you have patrician owners who hire a wannbe patrician executive (Montgomery). Look, they are nice people, but (aside from Middleton) they do not have a proper business edge – they are used things just running as usual. Here’s an example. Even though ultimately they got a decent contract from Comcast, it’s so clear they left money on the table. Dave Montgomery’s business explanations regading the contract were mind boggling. He kept focusing on comfort and relationships and not wanting to push too hard. It was basically the Phillies “let’s all play nice” philosophy in a nutshell. It’s the same reason they slavishly adhered to the Commissioner’s old slot recommendations. As I’ve said before, it’s not only that the Phillies don’t go “out of the box”, at least historically, the Phillies ARE the box!

              But, hey, maybe Ruben will learn and evolve. Frankly, I don’t care. I just want this franchise to turn itself around and I don’t want to continually see this boom and bust cycle that stupid Phillies fans think is inevitable. Yes, there will always be some ebb and flow – I get that and you can’t contend for the WS every year. But the price of being good does not have to always be being horribly bad for another 5-7 years. STOP THINKING LIKE THAT PHILLIES FANS – IT’S NOT TRUE! The Cardinals and Red Sox don’t have extended periods like that – let’s stop thinking like losers.

            3. While I am not pleased with the actions and philosophy of our owners and GM, I tend to ignore any argument that begins with something like “two titles in 135 years”. What can that possibly have to do with anything. The actual reality is that this franchise was very, very good over about a five year period and then collapsed, for reasons that seemed very obvious, but may also have been precipitated by stupid treatment of Howard’s heel. You say you have to put RAJ up against the GMs of teams with large budgets — perfectly fair, although not fair to pretend he has the $ resources of the Yankees. If you are comparing RAJ to other GMs then you have to limit your argument to the years he actually was GM or at least the years in which he was a member of the front office. To hang 135 years on RAJ is really lazy arguing.

            4. roccom, please choose another small mammal – Ed Wade is the weasel, and apparently architect of the glory years. Perhaps a rodent instead?

          2. It’s interesting how in Philly sports right now we have two complete extremes – The 76ers and Eagles are driven by business and analytics and not at all bound by loyalty or the past, and the Flyers and Phillies seem to be in many ways hamstrung by the past and loyalty. It appears as if Mr Hextall is moving the Flyers away from that as well and towards analytics and different decision making.

            I’d love to see the Phillies fire RAJ and replace him with a forward thinking GM that can bring a fresh new approach, but at this point it’s hard to tell who would even be making that decision and what influences would exist – is it Gillick? Montgomery? Both? More of the minority owners? The lack of true leadership comes right from the top in this organization right now and I think that’s even a bigger problem than RAJ. There needs to be someone fully in charge and accountable to make decisions and with the Phillies it seems like everything is done by committee and with all flavors of politics in the background on everything. Having said that, just having one owner in full control also doesn’t guarantee success as I’m sure Redskins fans can attest, as well as Raider and Cowboy fans.

          3. Dmar – agree about Cherington. The Porcello signing was a head-scratcher from the get-go, and looks even more asinine now. I always liked the Sox franchise. I don’t necessarily follow them closely, as there’s only one team for me (unfortunately), but for the first time in my life I find myself rooting against the Sox. Every time one of their pitchers blows up it brings a genuine smile to my face

      2. Steve, what do you do when you disagree with your boss but they want you to do that task anyway? That’s the situation Ruben was and is faced with as the main problem is the ownership. The ownership did the same thing in the last great era of the Phillies with running the Carlton, Schmidt, Boone core into the ground like the current team. If you think that GM’s control everything just look at the Colorado Rockies whose owner prevented the trade of De La Rosa and Tulowitski because he does not want to trade them and interferes with the GM.

        1. A lot of guesswork in that argument philabalt. This is what I know. The Phillies won a championship under Gillick, and then the checkbook was opened. RAJ inherited a championship team and then doubled the team payroll within two years. Talent and an open checkbook should never in a million years have this franchise in the dire position it is today. The state of the franchise lies with the GM

          1. Steve, not when ownership tells you to make those high dollar contracts no matter what and hamstring developing young talent. I hate to say this but the 2008 team was probably the least talented team of the five division winners and we were quite fortunate to win the World Series.

            1. I agree with the 2nd comment philabalt. Hamels and some timely hitting carried us to that championship.

              I still don’t agree with the defense of Amaro though. How exactly do we know that ownership has been pulling all the strings? Seems presumptuous at best to me, and conspiracy-theorist at worst

            2. Steve……do you think Ruben overruled Charlie between ’09 and ’12 on personnel moves for the 25-man roster? Charlie was the most popular and beloved guy in town after ’08. Charlie blessed the major roster moves. And Ruben was going to come in and say….’hey Charlie, what say you, .lets start thinking about breaking up the core for the future?’

  15. While I would hardly celebrate an injury to any player, save for Arod, it certainly isn’t a bad thing for the Phillies that Cueto and now Kazmir are experiencing arm troubles. Harang appears certain to net us a prospect who would fall in our top 15

  16. Harang thar depends on who is in the hunt come trading deadline . The team needs him might have a bad farm. The Dodgers , Cards , Nats , Mets, .the nats , Mets , st.Louis and Dodgers all are deep in pitching. Maybe the Cubs , S F, pitt. Al Houston , Texas , Tigers, Rays, Yanks . Harang is 37 yr old pitcher that a short temp fix,thinking more like middle level prospects.still along way to go yet.

  17. For all the complaints about Rube, just imagine if he fired Sandberg and took his placei n the dugout . . . it could always get worse

  18. The Patrician argument above was right on point. This was a group of wealthy, compared to us poor people, blue-blood types put together by Bill Giles when Ruly could not take the big contracts anymore. Claudell Washington getting $750,000/yr. That is a frame of reference for today’s Billionaires and $200Million contracts. Bill Giles did not have personal money at all, and the Limited partnership was set up to protect him going forward. The only real businessman is John Middleton. Do you remember Woody Woodward getting fired after a month or so when he said that Jim Baumer was destroying the farm system? That was a Giles friend, recommended by his friend Bud Selig. So, we can blame, rightfully so, RAJ for many bad decisions, until there is an ownership group/person change, that 2007-2011 period was it for a very long time.

    1. I have said it for years. bill giles is the devil. he is behind so many bad decision, but ruben still is a moron.

    2. I have always blamed ownership over the GM. The owners set the course and there were quite a few years, ironically, where they would not spend any money on pitching.

      Don Carmen as an ace anyone?

      Some of those rotations in the 80’s and 90’s were bad. They made our 4th and 5th starters look like aces.

      1. david I don’t know if you can answer this but if the Phillies spend the 4 million on that kid Ortiz, can they still go after other high price kids?

        1. rocco…..I believe they can sign anyone they wish under $300K. Now Ruben will need to make some trades with already penalized teams to get a few more dollars in his allocation pool.

          1. I SORRY but the dodgers spend millions upon millions, to get players, what are they doing different, so do the rangers, Yankees, but we only can spend under 300000 if we sign a 4 million dollar players, dam it confuses me

            1. rocco…..I really do not know all the ins and outs of this current system…but I do think some teams are willing to pay the penalty, but I also think there are a few teams you mentioned above that are restricted from going above $300K for a few years. Last time the teams involved in some of these restrictions were the Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, and Red Sox. However, I am not sure what the time period is involved for each team’s penalty restriction

      1. romus I cant take it I might commit suicide, dodgers again. Ultimately, there may not be much practical effect: the current period ends on June 15. And Alvarez is said by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs to be eyeing a $16MM bonus with the Dodgers, who strongly implied they bowed out of the Yoan Moncada sweepstakes in part so that they could take full advantage of the upcoming July 2 market.

        1. rocco…look on the bright side….the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Diamondbacks, and Angels cannot sign him for over $300K.
          Other then MAG, Ruben seems to be shying away from the Cubans.
          But then again, I would think the pipeline of young teens on the Cuban island may be plentiful.
          It will be interesting to see how the draft incorporates the Cuban youngsters.

          1. LAD could stand to trim the payroll a bit.
            Perhaps they can cut janitorial services down from seven days a week to six.

  19. Image if we trade Hamels , Harang, Revere, Howard, Ultey, pap, and cooch. Now image none of the prospects we receive from the trades work out. Ruf 1st 2nd Herrera ss Galvis, 3rd Franco left Asche cf Siezmore/Herrera RF Dugan / Francoeur. Sp J Williams , S Gonzalez, Sullivan, Joey Rodriguez, Clements. That would get Raj fired would get Middleton the ownership.

    1. Middleton needs to garnish a seemingly ‘large and unattainable’ 3% more of the stake, to make his steak.

        1. Agree…Giles is 83-years old I believe, and Monty is having health issues, so I would think it could be rather sooner, then say 10 years down the road.

          1. I wouldn’t wait ten years, to gain control if I was middleton. I would sell now and go look elsewhere for a team.

  20. But keep in mind that Middleton’s problem gaining ownership is not attaining 3%, but the by-laws prohibiting any one person or entity from owning a Majority interest in the team. That was the legal restrictions put on the Limited Partnership Agreement. Why? can only guess. Maybe our old friend LarryM would know. So Middleton would have to, if he wants to buy the team, get everyone to agree to sell the LP, then he could structure the new entity any way he wants. That is the rub. Bill Giles is not agreeing to that. I have no idea what Monty’s perspective is.

    1. They could rewrite the LP but it would require approval from a certain percentage of the LP to approve and those conditions are likely buried deep within the LP agreement.

      It can be done but it would be a huge pain in the ass.

      1. From what I understand there would be four separate entities involved in the process.
        1. Buck family and heirs.
        2. Betz family and heirs
        3. Jon Middleton and wife
        4. Giles/Monty consortium
        Is there more that I am not aware of?

          1. And the Bucks’ interest is held by the Tri-Play limited partnership. I’m pretty sure Giles and Monty own next to nothing at this point. They’re just figureheads.

            1. From my past experience, these LP’s can be very, very complex. Especially older ones where things are not well thought out.

              Out clauses were not common back then so a lot of these are LP’s to the death where families then sell because they have to pay estate taxes.

              I hate to be that grim but I have seen messy divorces within LP’s and problems that fester for years because it is too much work to deal with inside the structure of the LP. In those cases you run it profitably so everyone shuts up.

  21. Let me try to understand . If buck and betz say would sell there shares, middleton still wouldn’t have control as long as giles and Montgomery are owners.

    1. There is a 1981 agreement/arrangement in place that requires some type of vote from all partners, to allow one individual/entity to become sole owner.

  22. It extends to even having a 51% share in the Limited Partnership. It is not even an arrangement, but a part of the Limited Partnership Agreement. So, it is a firm legally binding part of the contract. Over the years, Middleton has acquired the Taft shares and some of the Betz family shares, as they are first required to be offered to the other Partners. The Taft family, who owned the TV station, were the final partners that Giles needed to put the group together. They have been out for quite some time. Giles has not had the money to buy any and Middleton has gotten to his 49%. From what I understand, the Betz heirs are happy to sell out. I have no idea about the Bucks. The bottom line has been, that the Giles influence is still very strong on this team.

  23. S0 his brings up an interesting point if Giles is 83 and Monty health is not good who gets there share when both go into retirement.

    1. The answer, as morbid as it sounds, is they keep the shares until they die and then they pass on to the estate unless changes were made regarding control.

      There is not retirement when you own a sports team. It is the pinnacle and last item on the wealth checklist.

      1. Talked to someone about this last night who does this kind of work, If one of them would god forbid die, and the shares go to the family they must be voted to give them say, the way he explained it was, say you and someone own a company and one of you dies, then one of the family doesn’t have the right to come into the business and have a say, normally that when a value is put on the company. and you try to buy them out, lawyers also put a value on how much you would pay to rid yourself of them over the value, they usually get a added amount to rid themselves of the family.

  24. Salisbury had an interesting article on how the Phils and Red Sox could match up on a Hamels trade. Nothing really new here (Betts/Swihart untocuchable, yada, yada, yada …), but the scout he talks to points out the thing that’s been discussed by some here for months: The Sox are deep enough with high upside prospects to make a deal worthwhile.

    http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/scout-cole-hamels-boston-red-sox-would-be-winning-trade

    Here’s my question: If RAJ finally accepts that the Sox aren’t going to trade one of their big club guns, what other prospects would be acceptable? If the Sox offered Devers/Margot/Rogriguez right now, would that get it done for you?

    1. Amen…………Margot and Devers would need to be in the package for me…Ed Rodriguez was off the table according to earlier Sox reports back last month. I think they still wanted the Phillies to take one of Owens, Barnes or Johnson as the pitcher in the package. The fourth fro me would be someone like Cecchini.
      Problem is….after two months of the season, all of them are really struggling right now (Owens, Cecchini, Margot, and Barnes) except for Raphael Devers and Brian Johnson.
      Personally, I would try to get Cashman and the Yankees involved in the bidding scene.
      I prefer a corner power right handed bat like Aaron Judge in the package.

      1. Rodriguez would be important for me in such a deal. Otherwise, you’re trading one of the top pitchers in baseball for an okay pitching prospect and a couple of guys who are still lottery tickets, regardless of their upside. Cecchini doesn’t do much for me.

        If RAJ thinks he can get Judge/Severino from the Yanks or Schwarber from the Cubs, then by all means, wait out the market and drive up the bidding. But if these guys aren’t going to be available, I would aim for a deal like the one above and get it done ASAP.

      2. Romus prospects are just that, I read the article and we are talking about devers a heavy leg kid who has no real positon, should hit, is that someone you trade cole for, owens a guy who cant break a egg, I hate him. You are talking about a ace for low level prospects, no thanks. hey betts isn’t setting the world on fire and swihart isn’t either and they are triple a guys who hit. now you want a ball guys who might by red sox standards be good players. sorry no thanks, lets get off boston with there overated prospects, I would take a chance on judge but want a good pitching prospect too. If boston doesn’t give us swihart the no deal, that kid is a good catcher then you take him and two low a guys like margot and devers, at worst you got a good starting catcher, even if he isn’t a great hiiter another chooch type.

        1. rocco….of course Ruben could pull a Sam Hinkie and try to get more from the Sox by willing to take currently injured catcher Christian Vasquez, ilo of Swihart. Vasquez is likely not ready to play until 2016.
          As for Devers, you are correct. 40 or less speed, plus bat, only 6’0″ tall, so he is pidgeoned to either be a 2nd baseman, or LFer. Cannot see him over at first base

          1. I’ve never heard 2B or corner outfield being a potential destination for Devers. Why couldn’t he play 1B if 3B didn’t pan out? Because of his height?

            1. Yes, I would think, height, or lack of, can be a negative at first base. Every high throw could be a foot off the bag and every stretch is that much shorter. Not many 6’0″ 1st basemen in MLB. A game of inches in many ways.

  25. I’m honestly tired of talking about the Sox. I think Cherrington feels like we need him more than he needs us. The Phils aren’t a team looking to shed salary and if he continues to think he’s getting Hamels for no other reason than agreeing to take on his salary, then he has another thing coming.

    I still think the Dodgers are the most obvious fit. Down on the pharm, Jose DeLeon has been dominant all season and IMO has replaced Pederson (only because he is a full time regular) as one of the big three who can headline a package. If you aren’t already familiar, more on De Leon here: http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150530&content_id=127449662&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

    1. De Leon, Zach Lee (who is having a bounce back year), Chris Anderson and Van Slyke would get it done for me. If Boston wants to smarten up, or if the Cubs make Schwarber available, or if the Yankees or Texas show serious interest, I would certainly hear what they have to say. But the Dodgers are being somewhat dismissed as an option due to their reluctance to part with one of the big three. I would contend they have the pieces to get a deal done without Seager or Urias (or Pederson)

      1. The thing about a Hamels trade for me is that it would need to include players who have the potential of being stars. Does anyone in this proposed Dodgers trade have that ceiling? I’m not sure.

        The reason the Sox continually come up in these discussions is because they have the pieces that would really make sense for the Phils. Guys like Devers and Margo certainly have flameout potential, but you could also see them hitting in the Top 4 of a big league lineup if things go well. That’s what a Hamels trade would need to produce.

        I don’t see the Giants having the prospects that would make a trade worthwhile.

  26. I still think that the Giants are a possibility as we get closer to the end of July. The Dodgers, I agree, can make a very good offer without Seager, and I am not convinced that another injury doesn’t make Urias available. They want to win desperately. I don’t see the Cubs and would love to do it with a team other than the Red Sox.

    1. I think Hamels is a fit for the Giants, then again, he’s a fit for every team in the majors. I’m just not sure what the Giants can offer in return. Tyler Beede would be an interesting piece but looks the part of nothing more than a mid-rotation starter since drafted at no. 14 overall last year. Christian Arroyo could be interesting as an option at 2b, but as is the case with Beede, I doubt he could headline a package. After those two the Giants’ system is full of middling pitchers and reliever types. I suspect they can make a play for Hamels but they probably aren’t in my Top 10 as far as options

  27. That’s why we wait until we have 4 or 5 trade partner’s who will be biding against each other. It’s too early to tell who Wil be bidding Boston might be out of the race by then.

      1. There to many catcher’s showing promise Lino, Grullon, Knapp, Pusso , Lenin Rodriguez, they drafted a few last yr. Houston has some hitters that would be good Phillips , Justin Taylor, and 1 pitcher for Hamels .

          1. This draft is not loaded with catcher’s none have Grullon arm or Knapp
            Switch hitting ability . Lino up at AA he’s better all the time. The only catcher even in the top 20 is Stevenson and Betts . Betts needs a lot of work with his receiving. Stevenson is in high school which is and has a 45 hit grade and at 6″4 210 will probably grow out of the catcher position. The Phillies need corner outfielder’s and you can never have enough of Sp . Ian Happ should be around when the Phillies pick I hope Tucker there is there but I don’t think so. I think the will go Sp again which is never a chioce.

  28. Instead of beating your head against the wall as a frustrated Phillies’ fan, I suggest picking another team to root for until the Phils become contenders again.

    The Cubs would be a good choice. They are a team with money and run by smart guys. They have a likeable manager who is also smart. They also have an expanding core of young position players that should be good for many years.

    Start with Rizzo and Bryant. Add Russell and Soler, who look to be developing into very good players. Starlin Castro is young, established and under contract for several years. In addition, there are three more players in the minors with star potential and no more than two years from the majors: Baez – an excellent middle infielder with good power potential who seems to be overcoming some of his problems at the plate, Schwarber – one of the best remaining bats in the minors who could make his major-league debut later this season, and Almora- the Cubs’ future CF who can hit.

    The only things the Cubs lack are a future starter behind the plate and some more starting pitchers. The latter problem can be solved by signing one or two FAs this off-season.

    I believe the Cubs are smart enough not to weaken their core of position players by trading for someone like Hamels. If they want to add pitching this season, they should settle for somebody like Harang, who won’t cost much.

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