Open Discussion: Week of February 16th

Weekly Discussion

Pitchers and catchers report Wednesday, first practice Thursday.  The equipment truck arrived safely Sunday morning.  My daughter flew down Sunday afternoon with her family.  They sat 2 rows in front of Ruben Amaro on the plane.  The Phillies front office will take up residence in the top floor of the administration building at Bright House Field for the duration of spring training.

Since signing RHP Aaron Harang  on January 5th, the Phillies have signed a a handful of minor leaguers, a FA pitcher, and made a few roster transactions –

  • 01/08 – Signed RHP Jeanmar Gomez to a minor league contract.
  • 01/16 – Claimed Jordan Danks off waivers from the Chicago White Sox
  • 01/28 – Signed FA SS Tyler Greene to a minor league contract.
  • 01/23-29 – Released RHP Tyler Gonzales (signed 11/18/14).
  • 01/29 – FA RHP Chad Billingsley
  • 01/30 – Signed NDFA RHP Luis Benitez to a minor league contract (State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota).
  • 02/6-12 – Signed RHP Jairo Munoz to a minor league contract. (released by Royals, June 25, 2014).
  • 02/09 – Sent Cesar Jimenez outright to Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
  • 02/12 – Signed free agent 2B Raul Rivas to a minor league contract.
  • 02/12 – Signed free agent RHP Mauricio Llovera to a minor league contract.

The Phillies have finally been mentioned in connection with a Cuban defector when MLB TradeRumors reported that “Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez has quickly become one of the most talked-about prospects on the international market, and the buzz among scouts, per Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, is that the Phillies, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are expected to heavily pursue the 18-year-old”.  Alvarez has a 93-97 mph fastball.  He backs that up with a passable slider and change-up.

And, finally, I’m tired of national writers or even Philadelphia’s feature/beat writers phoning in their negative opinions on the Phillies’ off season.  They managed to turn Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd, and Antonio Bastardo into 4 young minor league pitchers with upside.  They picked up a couple of Rule 5 picks who may or may not develop into something.  They finally came to grips with the word “rebuild” and are actually shopping Cole Hamels and Jonathan Pappelbon.  They tried moving Ryan Howard.  They are positioned to move Cliff Lee if he shows he is healthy and pitches effectively.

The fact that the Phillies haven’t caved in to trade packages that don’t interest them for Hamels and Papelbon doesn’t make this a bad off season.  (Papelbon for Broxton, really?  How would that help?) The Phillies do NOT have to trade players to satisfy other GMs, fans of other teams, or the media.  They don’t even have to make trades to satisfy their own fans.  They DO have to make trades that make the team better.  And hopefully, they will get a return that they think is appropriate (and that satisfies the fans)

To paraphrase an Indian saying, “Things will be better in the end. If they aren’t better yet, that is because we have not yet reached the end.”  We already know that the soonest we can anticipate the end is 2017.

124 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of February 16th”

  1. Good commentary. For me—I welcome following (and discussing) the rebuilding process. It MUST happen…which makes me a bit impatient with some of our fans expecting, or even wanting trades and signings that will make us competitive NOW. Ain’t gonna happen.Some reasonable patience required–Rome wasn’t built, etc. As you have noted, the necessary rebuilding process is under way (at last) which most teams go through time to time.

    According to published rumors, the Red Sox have entered the fray regarding Hamels….with an “insulting” first offer…but that represents the initial process in working out a trade. Everybody knows that it will take significant prospects to shake Cole loose. Stay tuned.

    Like

  2. I agree wholeheartedly. You can argue, until the cows come home, about how the Phils got here but that can’t be changed. What they do going forward is what’s important. In some cases their hands are tied. Howard for one. If someone offered to pay $10M of his salary and a piece of ABC (already been chewed) gum, they’d take it. But who would offer that? Lee has to prove he can still throw the ball. I don’t doubt he can but every team is saying, prove it. Hamels is your 1 big trade chip. If a deal doesn’t blow you away, he can still be a #1 on your team. He has value either way but trading him for a bunch of recycled Major Leaguers doesn’t make any sense. Once he’s gone, everything will be gauged by the prospects you get so why get anything less than the value you think he has?

    Like

  3. The reports of Broxton and Major Leaguers from Boston (read Allen Craig, Shane Victorino types) make me not terribly upset that Hamels and Paps are still around.

    Even if healthy, Lee is not going to be an easy trade. While Hamels contract is probably a little below open market (n years if not AAV) Lee’s is not at this point.

    MLB trade Rumors’ Steve Adams reports three more Cuban defections. I wonder how long the pipeline can last when the spigot is turned on full blast. At this points they may be hurting there own value by glutting the market. Even the Yankees and Dodgers can pay so much. Those fines have to be payed immediately with cash at hand. Alternately, It is still likely better for the kids to get in before an international draft.

    Like

    1. Hi Everyone seems to be negative on a Pap for Broxton trade. I know that it would not achieve the primary goal of acquiring top prospects, but I question whether there is such a return out there for Pap.To me if you traded him for Broxton, you would be getting yourself out from under the 13Million vesting option, which in itself has a lot of value. Such a trade only is bad if the Phillies thought they were contenders in 15, or 16. I know people think money does not matter, because they have money.

      Like

  4. I would not settle for an MLB loaded offer from these teams that the media & rival brass want the Phils to do. However, if you could throw in a Craig, Bradley Jr. type along with maybe 2 top 12 prospects, that could be something to consider. Those guys could refine their skill set, play well, and be garnered by teams at the deadline in need of a MLB bat or arm for their playoff push. In turn, you could turn them into 2 more prospects essentially. Just two seasons ago Allen Craig was the most feared right handed bat with runners in scoring position. He could return some talent if he returned to form.

    Like

  5. Am I understanding correctly that the Phil’s just re-signed the same Tyler Greene that they released 2 years ago?

    Like

    2. No, this Tyler Greene is 30-plus utility infielder who was in the Atlanta system last season. He has amassed almost 3 years of major league service (2009-2013) for STL, HOU, and CWS.

      Like

      1. No matter what else you say about the Phillies, you have to admit they really dominate the competition for Tyler Greenes.

        Like

  6. I agree with you Jim, with the caveat that what worries me, is that the same people making the decisions now are the ones that created this mess. I have no problem with the off-season and have no interest in Broxton. And, I would rather not trade Hamels then get back Bradley, Allen Craig and Brandon Workman. And, I have no delusions of contending before 2017, but I am hoping for that piece in a Hamels trade that we believe is a Centerpiece, with JP, of that future contending team.

    Like

    1. Still trying to understand why Ruben will not take Vasquez ilo of Swihart.
      Doing that could open the possibilities of getting two other top tier players, plus a secondary or very young long-way off prospect from the Sox system, ie Owens, Cecchini and maybe a Coyle, Devers or Margot.
      Ruben should realize, Betts will not be included at all, so why even bother discussing him. Same thing Ruben did in ’09 and ’10 with Dom Brown, he was off the table in any trade talks.

      Like

      2. Agree with you Romus. Swihart is their JP. I would have no interest in trading JP. Although in your scenario, I wouldn’t take take Cechini. He’s too reliant on his hit tool and struggled in AAA . I would be ok with Owens, Vasquez and one of the lesser prospects you mentioned (Coyle is intriguing, but seems to have a lot injuries). If we’re getting Vasquez, I wonder if the Red Sox would want Ruiz (plus some cash) as a bridge to Swihart.

        Like

  8. If my recollection is correct, this is the third time the Phillies have signed a “Tyler Greene”. I suggest they sign a player named “tyler Greene” every other year until they find a “true Greene prospect.”

    Like

  9. Very good article what scares me is the same brass doing the same thing. The phillies should go after the young Cuban or other international prospects . They Need to step up there game ever if it’s a lower ranking prospect . The last time the started rebuilding it took a new stadium and Jim t as there big fa.when you rebuild there’s a lot of different ways . Yes there trading there vets trying to draft better and spend more money on internationally in the summer.it’s killing me to see all these Cuban prospects coming out of Cuba and the phillies might be in on 1.they now have the Braves international scout head as there scouting director . I’ not saying they sign a lot just 1 or 2 of the younger ones. There a Nevada booking site that has them at 67 wins the baddest team I mlb. Oh where he you gone Mr Carpenter .

    Like

    1. tim….the Phillies can have the greatest scouts in the world, but unfortunately they are miserly with their FA LA money expenditures. For example….people rave over the Bosox farm system, well BP’s top five are:C Blake Swihart ,LHP Henry Owens. CF Manuel Margot—LA signing,LHP Eduardo Rodriguez ,LA signing, 3B Rafael Devers—-LA signing …..then throw in Bogaerts and Castillo with the team.
      If you add all their signing bonus’ up for those five players…my guess the Phillies could not come close to 20% of that total. Castillo alone is $72M or $10M AAV
      The only thing that will help the Phillies is an international draft.
      Very sad, and what also is sad, the majority of the millions of fans that follow them do not even realize why they have become mediocre.

      Like

        1. There is a lot of buzz about the phillies spending big this upcoming signing period. We did hire the braves former head of Latin American scouting to be our scouting director this year.

          Like

            1. From what i have read, the Comcast money kicks in 2016….with first installment of $65M, and every year thereafter of an approx. 3% increase in payout until the 25 year mark, and $2.5B is exhausted.
              Now if you are confident that July 2nd brings a big international outlay from the Phillies, then I hope you are correct. And i know, MAG was a big one, according to their standards, in 2013.
              So maybe they will surprise.

              Like

      3. It’s good to see that some folks are being realistically critical of this ownership group/front office. Too often do you see people that are way too far on each ends of the spectrum (i.e. praising Amaro or Monty for the moves made during the contending years, or relentlessly bashing the org for it’s current state). I tend to side with the critical, and i can’t help but feel this way. The facts are the facts. We had a GREAT run.Safe to say that mostly all, if not all of us, will remember it for the rest of our lives.

        The problem is that during this period of greatness there was literally NO PLAN to try to sustain success. Now i’m not one to bash Amaro for the moves to acquire Halladay, Lee or Oswalt. No, these moves didn’t bring another championship. But yes, these players were either very good or great as Phillies. Additionally, theplayers traded haven’t mounted to anything. HOWEVER, the lack of a true plan, poor scouting, and minimal investments in amateur talent (LA included) is the sole reason for the dismal state of the franchise, IMO. How can you continue to year after year trade bulks of prospects, sign FAs and giveup 1st round picks, and not findother ways to re-tool or re-stock the farm?

        I point to 3 specific moves that are the true back breakers. One is rushing to trade Lee (and getting slop in return, all the while giving Blanton a salary basically equal to what Lee was making).

        The second is Werth leaving in FA and literally doing nothing to replace him (the same offseason that guys like Willingham and Cuddyer were available). This might be the single most overlooked failure of this organization over the last 10 years. Instead of replacing his production, they went with freaking Ben Francisco and JMJ, while also juggling Dom Brown up and down from the minors, and in and out of the lineup. Guess what this lead to? That’s right, Hunter Pence. Say what you want about Pence, or even Singleton, Cosart or Santana. But the fact is that he wasn’t a good fit, and this was a forced move because there was NO PLAN initially to replace Werth from the start. If you then factor in the trading of Pence (not even a year later) for freaking Tommy Joseph, catastrophic failure!

        The third is the most obvious, which is hanging on to their old core, and continuing to extend them while giving out option years and no trade clauses. Included in this is signing older FA while giving up draft picks (Paps, who is also a cancer and not a good fit, and Polanco).

        It makes me want to throw up in my mouth when I hear or see people defend Amaro. He is a total failure, along with the entire FO (specifically Montgomery). I am happy that Monty is healthy, and I can appreciate that he is a nice guy and loyal to his guys, but he has to go, quickly. This organization is a fossil. Who is in charge??>?? You have Monty now being “promoted” while Gillick now getting the interim tag removed and is now team President I guess? But while he is stating that they are in rebuild mode, he also says he won’t be here long term and possibly only another year.

        I can’t help but laugh at how incompetent they are. They can’t even rebuild properly. Now I’m sure most of you will give this a “thumbs down”, but at least I am honest and able to see the whole big picture. I’m tired of seeing comments on how Amaro has done a good job the last couple offseasons, simply by not adding to the list of failures. We are in this situation because the org hasn’t had a clue, EVER, and in my opinion it doesn’t seems as though anything has truly changed. I view the current moves/direction of the org as a direct response to fan resentment and unhappiness. After ’08 I told myself that I’d forever be happy for that moment and there wasnothing that the org could do to change that. BOY WAS I WRONG. We deserve better.

        Judge me if you want.

        Like

        3. Ruben is a fool and some idiots here and are not very bright. This includes some folks who write for this site. I assume they are getting some compensation to deny the facts. I also notice they continually remove negative comments about Ruin Tommorrow Jr.

          Like

          1. I can’t believe I’ve gotten this far in this threat and no one has expressed regret that Jim’s daughter missed what seems like a perfect chance to eliminate Amaro once and for all.

            Like

  10. I am wondering if Comcast will pick up more of the Phillies minor league games this year? They picked up some of the LV road games in Savannah GA a couple of years ago. Would love to see them do the same especially with Reading.

    Like

  11. Well done Jim. Agree. I’ve been disgruntled about the GM for years but I see nothing wrong with how this off-season has gone. The Rollins deal for one has the chance of being a really good one for the organization. Same with Lively. If he can make it to the majors and hold down a #4 on a first division team, that would be a great pickup for Byrd.

    Pitchers and catchers . . . spending my second spring away from Tampa now. Depressing. But I’ll be there to see the Phillies-Yanks at Steinbrenner Field in March as part of a 4-day trip. Staying the first of three nights at the Hard Rock in Tampa (that might be a problem) before finishing the trip in Clearwater

    Like

    2. And I don’t have a problem with last off season either. Burnett didn’t work out, but Hernandez landed them two half decent prospects. The terrible off seasons before 2013 is what they are currently paying for

      Like

  12. I see the three most needed additions to their prospect list as catcher, pitcher,and outfielder. In the “myriad” trades to come (Hamels, Paps, and hopefully later, Lee) for these Phillies. That could be over the next 7 months OR from now on. Watching and discussing promises interesting amendments to the likely horrendous results at the top of the franchise. Courage!

    Like

  13. Where do people — on this site- stand on the shrinking of the strike zone? I would just like a consistent strike zone. Establish it and keep it throughout the AB, inning, game and season. They’re pretty close to being able to put sensors around the plate so balls and strikes could be done by a computer. Could you see Durocher or Weaver running to a computer screen and yelling at it? (yes, I know they are both dead) Personally I’d hate to see computers totally take over the game because there have been some theatrical umpires that I love to see behind the plate.

    Like

      1. Yes, nobody likes to see umpires put the spotlight on themselves. But can you imagine not experiencing the visual of an umpire calling a guy out on strike three? Imagine watching a two-strike pitch and having to look at the scoreboard to see if it’s strike three.

        I heard recently that umpires now get a report after the game of when their calls differed from PitchF/X – so that’s progress. At least their getting some continuing education. Unfortunately I think their union is preventing any action being taken on really bad umpires.

        Like

  14. This is a different anonymous, and I completely agree with what was said above. There was no plan, at all, to sustain the team’s success. The Lee trade was a monumental mistake, both in the need to trade him, and in the return. It may have cost the WS in 2010. And, there would have been no need for Oswalt. The Phils gave up more for Oswalt than they received for Lee. There was a huge miscalculation on Dom Brown that is on talent assessment as well as the player development parts of the team. he cannot track a fly ball, ahs no idea where hiss throws are going, never learned to run the bases, and we haven’t talked about his hitting yet. RAJ decided that top of the line pitching was enough, and he was wrong. Despite the great regular season in 2011, there were hitting issues that only got worse with an injured Polanco, who was never replaced. This team should have had 3 WS wins, not 1, and be in better shape today, as well.

    Like

    1. Remember most of baseball was wrong on Brown, not just the Phillies FO.

      And by the way, it’s Tuesday – enough Monday morning quarterbacking.

      Like

      1. You are right, a lot of Monday Morning QBing. But, when the same people are in charge, shouldn’t we worry they make the same mistakes?

        Like

  15. Kiley McDaniel released his Top 200 prospects on Fangraphs and there’s not a lot of good news after Crawford (10), Franco (38), and Nola (51). Eflin was the only other guy who cracked the top 200 and he’s lumped in with the last 58 guys on the list as 45 FV players.

    I was kind of surprised not to see Quinn at least make the top 200, but after looking through the other CFs on there it’s hard to argue too much.

    Anyway, it’s definitely worth checking out:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/

    Like

    1. Thanks for posting this. 3 players in top 51 is pretty damn good. The problem w our systems is depth, which will be fixed by:
      1. Being very aggressive on LATAM.
      2. Trading Hamels.
      3. This draft and the 2016 draft (w potentially the top pick)

      We just have to be a little patient like Gillick says.

      Like

  16. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/updates-on-the-top-cuban-free-agents.html

    Interesting thoughts on the Cubans.

    Yoan Moncada

    Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently spoke to multiple executives regarding Moncada’s potential bonus, and while one estimated that the bonus alone could reach $50MM, others have expressed some skepticism at the numbers that have been thrown around. Rosenthal spoke to execs that are clearly on both ends of the Moncada spectrum, as one estimated a $30MM maximum bonus, with something in the range of $20MM being more likely.

    —-

    $20 million is more like it.

    ———————-

    Olivera

    Sanchez says he wowed in workouts but I read that he was winded way too early for someone his age.

    —————-

    Alvarez

    I have read everything about his slider from being plus to passable to work with it.

    Changeup now i above average from not being mentioned.

    Like

    1. D-Backs got Tomas on a rather low-ball bid.
      I would hope Ruben would also make a bid in the $20/25M range for Moncada….at least force the other teams hands, especially the Yankees or the Bosox..

      Like

      1. If it was a winning bid it was not low ball. The agents have been stroking the media trying to drum up interest and planting ideas of crazy offers.

        Too often people fall for the writing and get wrapped up in what they read and do not dig a little deeper.

        Like

  17. Anyone else notice no minor leaguers have been invited to big league camp as non-roster players? Pitchers and catchers report today, with first workout tomorrow. Was guessing at least some catchers or extra arms would get invited.

    Like

      1. That’s my point. No phillies minor leaguers. These were all guys from other orgs. Usually guys would get an invite. For example, Logan Moore or Severino Gonzalez.

        Like

  18. With Jansen out for the Dodgers until maybe May, perhaps the Dodgers will try kick the tires on Jonathan Papelbon on the cheap from the Phillies. The last few trades with the Dodgers , Hernandez and Rollins, they seem to meet Ruben’s criteria in the exchange value, so they could rather make a surprise beneficial offer if they choose, maybe an OFer like a Scott Schebler or even a young catching prospect like Julian Leon.

    Like

    1. The best news is that KRod wants $10M for 1 year but really wants a 2 year deal. This helps the Phillies to get teams to value Pap over KRod if they kick in $5M for year 1. Its that 2nd year option though that’s the killer.

      Like

      1. Not with the Dodgers though because Pap has said he only wants to close and Jansen will be back in May and they’ll want him closing when he comes back. Milwaukee, Toronto, and Detroit are the teams to watch in ST.

        Like

        2. Murray….from what I read Jansen will not be throwing from the mound for almost another 5 weeks ( after he gets out of a boot). It will take him time to get back to where he once was. Then there isa brief rehab assignment. The Dodgers may want somebody to close for April and May. Paps could easily do that… then have Jansen come back as the set-up guy for a month or two, then have them compete for the closer position during the stretch run of August and September. But would the Dodgers want to invest the money in Papelbon is another story.

          Like

  19. BP posted their minor league rankings yesterday. The Phillies were ranked 20th. Here’s the comment they had:

    “State of the System: A recently decimated system thanks to trades and poor drafts, the Phillies system is on the upswing thanks to the emergence of J.P. Crawford as an elite prospect and a 2014 draft that featured near major-league ready college picks like Aaron Nola. Trades have added depth to an organization in desperate need of it, especially in useable, major league-caliber arms. Much of the system hinges on the ultimate success or failure of Maikel Franco and whether or not he can remain at third base or ultimately replaces Ryan Howard at first.”

    Like

    1. I guess their 4-person analytical staff of:
      —Jay McLaughlin – Baseball Information Analyst…
      —Scott Freedman – Manager, Baseball Analytics…
      —Adele MacDonald – Administrative Assistant, Baseball Operations…
      —Chris Cashman – Baseball Operations Representative
      ………. is a bit undersized! But it is a start in the right direction.

      Like

      1. Romus, you forgot that they have a staff of interns working for the above people but as you said they moving in the right direction.

        Like

        1. Yes…forgot the interns. Some could real go-getters and analytically savvy. maybe the next Peter Brand….or maybe Jonah Hill…who knows.

          Like

    2. Romus as long as the team has Montgomery, and giles. they will be last and the part that really pisses me off. Is that they think there genius, New England cheater and has four superbowls, we play by the commissioner rules in the draft and latin players signing, and are the worst team in baseball with a 170 million dollar payroll. I really mean this, I feel bad for you as a season ticket holder. If this team doesn’t have young kids playing it wont be fun going. At least with guys with franco and asche, biddle. diekman. giles you might see some light at the end of the tunnel.

      Like

      1. Well rocco, the team gets the 10th pick this June and by all probable accounts a top three pick in 2016. That is two pieces that will go along way in the future development of this organization into contention again. Hard to believe, that contributing factors to future success could be predicated on two unknowns at this point.
        And as for me…I have given the bulk of my games away as ‘gifts’ to family and friends. No sense in sitting at the barstool at the Connie Mack Club….though ogling Regina the barmaid was neat.

        Like

        1. They said today on radio. attendance could go down to 1.6 million. that would be low. Wonder if the owners will spend some money in latin market, to generate some interest in the team.

          Like

    1. Would love to have a transcript of the actual conversation. Have you thought that the author has left some parts out to advance his story? As this seems out of character for Hamels to do this.

      Like

  22. Cant blame him david, but the Phillies aren’t going to give him away. The last time someone of his stature wanted to be traded, It was schilling what a bad deal that was. Trading cole a ace left-handed for marginal prospects . Doesn’t help us at all.

    Like

    1. It doesn’t have to be a “marginal” prospect return. May just need to realize that we will not get a “great” return. I disagree with the sentiment that we can just hang onto Hamels because “in 3-4 years MAYBE we will be erady to start contending again”, when Hamels is at age 35. in my opinion, that notion is moronic. Even if, in the best case scenario that we ARE contending in 3 years AND Hamels is performing great, that gives you, what, a 1 or 2 year window with him??? It really makes no sense to me.

      Given the state of this team and franchise, what is so wrong with a “good” or “really good” package of prospects? At this point i would be ok with 3 or 4 out of Owens, Devers, Margot, Cecchini, Coyle, Vasquez. Alright, maybe it would take 4 out of that group for me to be ok or happy.

      Like

      1. How is a return of Owens, Vasquez, Devers and Margot not a great return? I can’t think of a better package for Hamels, understanding that there is no way we will see Swihart/Betts/Bogaerts or for that matter any of the top Cubs prospects in red pinstripes. Owens projects to be a 2 or 3 starter, which is better than anyone the Phillies currently have in their system. Vasquez is considered a premium defensive catcher. And Devers and Margot are both potential stars. This isn’t the first time I’ve said it, but I’d do that deal in a heartbeat.

        Like

      1. I agree and I think everyone needs to sit down and work it out.

        The teams do not want to give up a star position piece. Amaro wants a good position player prospect in return for trading an ace. Hamels wants his option picked up.

        Everyone has something that they want to happen. Now things can heat up if the agent begins to prod the teams a bit.

        Like

        1. Vegas…agree…..you cannot wait until the trade deadline since less teams will be in the market place for his need, AND next season you have the likes of David Price, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister, Ian Kennedy, Rick Porcello, Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, Bud Norris and potentially Zack Greinke all out there in the FA market.

          I would go one step further with your suggestion and include Chooch ,if they would be willing to add Christian Vasquez…he is defensively better then Swihart and is also young. And they keep their three main pieces in Bogaerts, Betts and Swihart.

          Like

          1. I’m with you, but I’d want Devers over Cechinni purely based on upside. Vasquez and Owens are your relatively safe pieces. Margot and Devers give you potential stars with risk.

            Like

  25. I don’t think anything has changed. The Red Sox have 3 very highly rated players, Betts, who they are not trading, Swihart, who they do not want to trade, Rodriguez, who is now off the table. Owens may be their 3rd rated SP, after Barnes. I don’t want Cecchini. So, I don’t trade Cole. He didn’t demand a trade, just told the truth. He wants to win, expected to do that here, and is as upset as we are that they are not going to contend until 2018. I don’t take a mediocre deal for him. If it does not hurt the other team a bit, it is a bad deal. Renfroe and Hedges, without Wishart, was not good enough either. Hedges can’t hit. What is the point of trading Hamels when the Phils do not need the money. And, the writers like Olney who want the Phils to add $, how does that get a better deal from the Red Sox? They need money less than the Phils do.

    Like

    1. Owens, by most accounts, is the top pitching prospect in the Red Sox system. If he’s not one, he’s two and certainly ahead of Barnes. Vasquez can come in and be the Phillies starting catcher for the next 10 years based on his defense alone. Add in Margot and Devers, who both have star potential but also flameout potential, and I can’t imagine why the Phillies would say no.

      Like

      1. I just read mlb, seven out of ten top 100 prospects, don’t live up to there billings, Everyone on hear wants to give cole away. Owens isn’t a ace or a number two. according to what I have read margot and devers chances to be studs is marginal. Lets just give release him today, omg how do you cave into the redsox and give away cole. I don’t care what the so called market is. you don’t give a ace away for a potential three. and some defensive catcher, we have those types in our system now. You cant rebuild this team with a bad trade, and the redsox aren’t the only team in baseball who could use cole. Wait and take the chance the market opens up. Remember with the thirty million a year deal given out by the nats., most teams wont be able to afford the starters romus mention. That contract set the market for a guy like price to get 35 or more. who wants to commit to that kind of money. cole is a steal at his price and age.

        Like

        1. Where is the next Oakland As deal where they gave Russell up to get a few months of Samardja in a last ditch effort to win it all? RAJ needs to just wait, as he’s doing, for a team to really need Cole. Meanwhile, I think he will have to adjust his thinking and kick in some money to get the prospects he wants. The delta between cost and value needs to be greater for the acquiring team. The same with a Pap deal.

          The Cole comments yesterday are no big deal. The President and GM of the team already came out and said we won’t this year. Why is it a news story that Cole repeated what they said and then added that as a 31 yr old pitcher, he’d like play for a team trying to win? I’m sure Lee will say the same thing.

          Like

          2. Murray, no offense, but the Samardja (sp) argument is by far the WORST argument in the Hamels discussion. It isn’t even a bad argument, it is no argument at all. I mean, I could say, “where is the next Babe Ruth to the Yankees for cash deal?” People would look at me if I were crazy, and justifiably so, if I made that “argument.” Bringing up the Oakland deal is even crazier, for reasons which I’ve repeated many times; I am not going to do again.

            That said, let me ask you and others – WHAT’S the argument? So the deal happened (let’s set aside your mis-characterization – they traded for a year and a few months of his services, not just a few months). We should expect a similar return … why? WHAT’S THE ARGUMENT? Is Billy Beane going to trade for Hamels? How’s that going to work, salary wise? Are other GMs – type A personalities with every confidence in their own abilities – going to all of the sudden say to themselves, “well, Billy Beane made this kind of deal, and he’s a really good GM, so I guess I should go against my own inclinations and trade away a bunch of great prospects for Hamels, just because Billy Beane is so smart, even though that particular deal will likely go down in history as the worst deal of the first half of the decade.” Is that likely? You think Beane (who is operating under unique financial constraints which, ironically, take him out of the market for Hamels) is THAT influential? Really?

            Like

        2. Yeah, I just completely disagree with you. No team is going to give up a potential ace for Cole Hamels, let alone a potential ace plus additional premium prospects. All the guys mentioned are top 100 prospects, and Vasquez is already major league ready. If one of the three becomes a solid major leaguer, it will have been a good trade. Cole Hamels does nothing for the Phillies by continuing to pitch for them during this rebuild phase. They need to get value for him, and frankly I don’t see how getting 3 top 100 prospects plus a highly touted major league ready catcher with elite defensive skills isn’t getting value for him. If this deal is on the table, and I don’t even know that it would be, the Phillies are not going to get a better offer.

          Like

        3. rocco….holding onto a pitcher(s) for a better deal down the road is rather risky. Positional players have their injuries, but an elbow or shoulder injury to a pitcher , especially with a lot of mileage on his tires, would be to risky for me, though I have preached in the past ‘fortune sides with he who dares’.
          Hamels over his 9 seasons has what, a plus 40WAR.
          And I am sure over the next two seasons he should easily garnish 13WAR, but from there on out it could get dicey, with him having probably over 2200 IPs on his shelf-life.
          Plus the Phillies will not be serious contenders until years from now….so he will be very advanced in years.
          Look rocco……got rid of him now, and you can almost guarantee the number one pick in 2016….there is your next ace. And the 10th this year could be your number 2/3 pitcher, along with Nola. .
          Happy days are here again…..!
          🙂

          Like

      2. Don’t think you can get Margot and Devers, maybe one of them, plus Owens and Vasquez. I would be happy with that.

        Like

        2. Devers, with plus hitting tools, but is listed as a third baseman, an ETA of 2017/18 and right now fringy field, footwork and arm….he may have to be moved to another position before then.

          Like

          1. If his bat is as special as advertised, it plays at first base or left field too. He’s the guy I really want.

            Like

  26. I just don’t understand that. Devers, Owens and Vasquez does what exactly? Vasquez can catch but can’t hit, Vasquez let’s call a 3? and Devers. That jump starts the Phils rise to contention? I don’t think so. Cameron Rupp can play C, good enough defensively, can’t hit. If Vasquez was good, they would not be so adamant about keeping Swihart. I would rather not deal with Boston. Wait until during the season, and if you keep Cole, that is a better scenario than taking a mediocre deal for him. Vasquez, Devers and Owens is mediocre.

    Like

    1. Devers has outstanding hit tool reports.
      His fielding at third is suspect.
      So he could be moved to 2nd base down the road

      Like

    2. You’re not getting an ace for Hamels. If you’re holding out for an ace, then we can just end this discussion because there’s really no point in continuing. Owens has #2 upside and at this point a likely #3 floor (assuming he doesn’t get hurt). Vasquez is an elite defensive backstop, and you are underestimating his offensive abilities. For his career in the minors, he has a 260/340/380 triple slash, which is actually not bad for a catcher. Combine that with elite defense, and he’s an upper echelon catcher. Rupp is not and never will be. Rupp plays okay defense and cannot hit. And like I said, Devers and Margot are both potential future stars. This is a deal that puts the Phillies in a much better position field a competitive team in the next few years than if they stand pat by holding onto Hamels as his decline phase begins to set in.

      Like

      1. IMO, Vasquez hitting in the 7 or 8-hole is tolerable. And it seems catchers get better at hitting as they stay in the league longer, ie Molina, Chooch , Posada, the kid from the Reds from Punxsutawney PA , .Devin Mesoraco
        Rarely do they come on the scene like a Posey, Fisk, Bench , Piazza or Munson.

        Like

    3. See, this is why I react the way that I do to even the intelligent posts advocating a high return for Hamels. Oh, I know I should resist, but here is what happens:

      (1) Intelligent commenter reacts to the national media consensus regarding Hamels by talking about why Hamels should get a good return. The argument is cogent, and basically correct, albeit somewhat exaggerated.
      (2) Less intelligent – or, let’s be fair, less well informed – commenter latches onto said argument to advocate absurd returns for Hamels, and dismisses even very good returns.

      Like this. Owens, Vasquez, Devers would be a FINE return. Owens is your top prospect, Vasquez your other good prospect, Devers AT LEAST a lottery ticket. That would be fine.

      But it’s pointless. The people expecting significantly more than this won’t be convinced otherwise – and, at the end of the day, the organization will do what they will do, certainly not listening to MY opinion.

      IMO if they had gotten that kind of offer from Boston the deal would be done.

      Like

      1. I think so too. It sounds like Boston is trying to push a deal of like JBJ, Barnes and Cechini. I wouldn’t be happy with that.

        Like

        1. I agree. I think Amaro probably IS doing the right thing holding out.

          It will be interesting to see the reaction if a deal gets done. I expect that, if a deal gets done, it will be a for a good return – which will STILL be roundly criticized by the fan base.

          Like

    1. I don’t believe you want a competitive team on the floor Sam! The Sixers were starting to look better and you have to trade your best young player away for another unproven draft pick.

      Like

  30. That’s great news for Dutch. That is something we can all agree on. And, LarryM, you are probably correct. I usually end up agreeing with your logic, although I always want more. If there was a glimmer in the farm of a nucleus of a future, the return for Hamels would not be so important. rather than a couple of pieces. I think that is not a less informed opinion, just one based on a wish for the Phils to contend again, the knowledge that the management has brutally screwed up the organization, and the hope that some good fortune falls our way regardless of management’s ineptness. I may be wrong on Vasquez and Owens, and whatever deal the Phils end up making, I probably won’t like, but I will root for whoever they get to make me wrong.

    Like

  31. With Profar out again for 2015 with his second shoulder surgery…is it allowed for Ruben to offer the Rangers back Odubel Herrera in a trade?

    Like

    1. Well, Texas has Rougned Odor and they just signed…uh…Rougned Odor, the younger brother of Rougned Odor. Their uncle Rougles Odor is a hitting coach for the Cleveland Indians, I think, and they have two cousins also named Rougles who play baseball.

      Like

    2. The greatest prospect is hurt. I thought only cole hamels can get hurt. Prospect are just that prospect and they are a bigger risk, then cole getting hurt.

      Like

      1. rocco…..yes you have a point. Injuries are just a part of the game.
        Now if Ruben holds onto Hamels, and he gets hurt with a TJ need, will the people who clamored to hold him for the best offer or to July, still back the GM and say it was the right thing to do?
        Trying to minimize risk and avoid a bad situation, is one of the hurdles GMs face.

        Like

        1. Romus maybe you can explain this to me. Paplebon according to most got too much to sign. White sox sign Robertson coming off a 37 year saves with five losses for almost the same money. and if I am right they are a year apart when they signed there deals. Why is paps contract worse then Robertson who if I am reading it right, Doesn’t have the tract record pap had. I cant figure it out.

          Like

          1. Good question.
            There are some differences.
            I think Paps was started for the 2012 season…his age31 season and Robertson’s fro this season-2105..three years apart, however his age30 season, so one year difference as you mentioned.
            Correct me if I am wrong. however, Ruben set the precedent back in Dec 2011 when he signed Paps to the largest contract to a pitcher in his category….a closer.
            Unfortunately, Ruben was a head of his time and set the bar…..some say, perhaps I would think, 25% too high. I believe the going rate around that time was $8/9M for a closer with Paps ilk.
            But there in is where Ruben has a weakness.

            Like

  32. There is a lot of good dialogue in this thread regarding moving Hamels. I think the consensus is that Swihart is not a very realistic option and we may have to center a package around another prospect. While getting Swihart would be great, there are other prospects who could come and to Philly and make fans happy.

    1.) For me bringing in Vasquez would be a smart move. He is very good defensively and could replace Ruiz right now. He hasn’t been great offensively, but he still has time to work on his bat. Ruiz hit .219/.320/.300 with a .620 OPS in 2008 when we won it all and he was 29 at the time. I think Vazquez could hold down a .250 average and may develop into a better hitter down the road like Ruiz or Molina. I believe Joe Kelly was comparing Vazquez to Yadier Molina the other day in an interview.

    2.) I originally wasn’t very high on Owens, but after watching some film and reading more about him I would take a chance on him. Big LHP with #2 upside are hard to come by. He has a good fastball from 88-94 that he can cut and sink, a big curve, and a great change up. Owens and Nola would be a nice pair to move forward with. We could also acquire Owens and move him for a bat.

    3.) Vazquez, Owens, (one of Johnson, Cecchini, Margot, Devers) and Coyle for Hamels with out any money included seems like a fair deal to me. Personally I would take Margot or Johnson as the third player. In the trade proposal including Margot we wouldn’t get Swihart, but we would still get 2 top 100 prospects in Owens (#19) and Margot (#99) according to mlb.com’s list. We would also get a young catcher who could start for us immediately and a lottery ticket in Coyle. IMO if Coyle stays healthy he could be a very good 2B long term. This seems like a good deal to me.

    I’d also be okay with swapping Margot with Johnson. Adding another LHP with MOR upside would provide us with additional pitching depth and another arm that could be potentially dealt for a bat if some of our in house guys develop as planned.

    Like

    1. I would avoid Cecchini and Coyle personally. Both strike me as second division regulars. Honestly I’d prefer Bradley to either one as a buy low fourth piece. I am very high on Margot and Devers, however. There are a number of different packages I’d accept generally centering around Owens and Margot. With money and Ruiz (if Vazquez is included) thrown in to up the prospect return if Boston was interested.

      I have no problem with waiting to trade Hamels if these names aren’t currently available even though it is risky. In the end I would not wait for Swihart to be included or a Russel for Samardzija type deal. That is a long wait for a train that likely isn’t going to come. Still it does seem Boston has a lot of good pieces that are a lot better than other teams are willing to trade. The Padres offer should make that clear.

      Like

  33. I will be thrilled if Jesse Biddle comes back strong and gets back to where he was. That will be a big boost to the system. I didn’t realize how bad that hail was that gave him a concussion. I am rooting for him. And, I always like Adam Morgan. It will be nice to see him healthy and throwing well by the summer. I don’t know that he can be a SP again, but he could help in the BP. Might as well hope for a little luck regarding our guys, and stop the wishful thinking about a Hamels deal.

    Like

  34. I keep seeing comments where people talk about good defensive catchers like Vasquez (I know that his bat may actually be decent, just saying this is what commenters are saying) or Hedges developing as hitters later in their careers like Molina or Chooch, as if it’s something inherent to the catching position that the hitting prowess comes later. I don’t see how this thinking is in any way logical. Just because it’s happened with other catchers doesn’t mean it’s going to keep happening. That would be like expecting Galvis to eventually be productive at the plate because Ozzie Smith got better later in his career. Without being a statistician or having any interest in looking up the actual facts, I’m just guessing that weak hitting catching prospects who develop into good hitters at about the same rate as guys at other positions.

    Like

    1. In regards to catchers…how does Wellington Castillo sound as a Phillie? Cubs and Phillies could deal.
      Age 28season coming up, some experience and decent defensively.
      Another candidate for that ‘defensive catcher morph into a hitter’…ha
      Wonder if Chooch is on the trading block if Castillo becomes a Phillie.

      Like

  35. Brandon Beachy signed with Dodgers. Another low risk signing I wanted the Phils to make. Just a small thing, but he is worth a shot.

    Like

Comments are closed.