2015 Sleeper and Break Out Prospects

There has been some discussion regarding the definitions of these two prospect classifications. So, I reached back into the archives for the definitions that James used in 2011 and 2012.

In 2011, “… talk about your favorite sleeper prospects heading into 2011. Note, Brody Colvin, Jon Singleton and the like are not sleepers. A sleeper prospect is a guy that people don’t talk about a lot, or do not consider in the upper tier of our prospects. Think more obscure, under the radar guys who you think might break out.”

In 2012, “… solicit your picks for 2012 sleepers. To make it clear, Trevor May and Jesse Biddle aren’t sleepers, they are well established upper echelon prospects. When I say “sleeper”, I define it as a guy who is not a consensus top 10-15 prospect, preferably someone who is even further off the radar, who you feel will break out in 2012 and establish/re-establish his prospect status. For instance, Mike Stutes was a breakout guy this year, because he wasn’t on any industry Top 30 lists this past winter, and was on very few Reader Top 30 ballots. Those are the guys I’m thinking of.” (editor’s note: the use of the words break out above is unfortunate and probably helps fuel confusion.)

In 2014 (from Matt), “… Everyone has that one player they believe is just going to explode on to the scene this year. Whether it is the growth of a single tool, the ability to stay healthy, or just to survive another level, a prospect’s stock can change wildly. In general most people think of a sleeper as a player who is completely off the radar, and a breakout prospect as a player who is going to have his stock take a large leap forward …”  (editor’s note: now we have a distinction between the two terms.)

Well, we talk about almost everybody here with little distinction between top tier prospects and off-the-radar non-prospects . So, I would extrapolate from the above to state that for our discussion –

  • A sleeper prospect is a player from outside the top 15-20 (we are deeper this year, after all) who you expect to have a bigger year than we should expect for a player at his level, both in the organization and as a prospect.
  • A break out prospect is a player who is expected to perform well but who does so with a much better year than anticipated and comes from the upper tier of prospects, say from within the top 15-20.

These are still arbitrary definitions. I’m certainly not going to nitpick over your selections. But a move from 47 to 22 (if 47 were one of the older guys still on the poll), wouldn’t really qualify as a break out year because 22 is still pretty far down the prospect ladder. This would be a sleeper to me. Now if 47 were one of the teenagers, that might be easier to classify as a break out year.

So, let’s start listing your picks here. I’ll consolidate, track, and report back periodically. If you listed them in other threads, repost them here. I’m not going through older posts to gather them.

 

38 thoughts on “2015 Sleeper and Break Out Prospects

  1. Sleeper: Carlos Duran, GCL Center Field will put himself on the radar this year.
    Breakout: Brian Pointer, reduces strikeouts and becomes a more selective hitter. He has almost everything else. That is all that is missing. (I had Harold Martinez, but upon thinking it over, I decided on Pointer.

  2. I like Tromp. Could see him have a good year. Also if Adam Morgan regains his health he’s an MLB caliber pitcher. Don’t know if he counts as a sleeper though. As far as break out player, what the heck let’s say Carlos Tocci. This will be the year his numbers start looking good.

  3. Reliever, Tyler Knigge is not spectacular, but is effective and he advances one level per year. He went 7-3, 3.43 at AA and AAA last year and is 19-14, 3.32 for his career. If he keeps up this progression he ought to reach the Phillies as a long relief/middle innings reliever sometime this year. He has a good minor leagues record, yet no one talks about him.
    He is a true sleeper.

  4. Sleeper: Yoel Mecias (Ranked 25th in Reader Top 30)

    Breakout: Cozens (Ranked 11 in Reader Top 30)

    I suspect Mecias to be a reader top 10 by end of next season and Cozens to be an overall top 100. No joke about Cozens. Mark it

      1. Right. Thanks Chris. Was looking at last year’s poll.

        (Edit)

        Sleeper: Ricardo Pinto (Ranked 25th in Reader Top 30)

        Breakout: Dylan Cozens (Ranked 13 in Reader Top 30)

  5. Break Out Oliver …he was a 4th rd pick so i dont think he can be a sleeper

    Breakout #2 Dugan…people will be clamoring for him by All Star break

    Sleeper – Colton Murray will dominate and establish himself as a future set up man

  6. Sleeper: Brandon Leibrandt

    I know his fastball is lacking, but, if he puts up numbers this year at Clearwater similar to last year’s numbers, he’ll be a Top 10 prospect in our system.

    Breakout: Odubel Herrera

    Why not? He’ll have his share of chances with the big league club.

    1. Wow, figured you were going to do Leibrandt, after the top 30 discussions, but you also took my sleeper in Herrera. I guess I could do Leibrandt as my break out but not as sure who could be the sleeper? I guess I could do Joseph, but I like Herrera more for the break out….so I’ll go with Joseph for Sleeper, kind of goes good with the whole concussion issue. Good thing for him they have the new running into the catcher rule

    2. Saying Leibrandt;s fastball is lacking would be a compliment. It is non existent at best. He will get rocked in anything above SAL league.

  7. not sure if i’m doing this correctly here but, i’m going all pitching. i think david whitehead is going to be a sleeper after looking pretty decent i year after TJ. i expect him to have a good year and get on everyones list as a prospect. my break out will be imhof. i think, being a lefty, he is going to take off.
    gm

  8. Sleeper- Cord Sandberg
    This will be the year he puts up numbers that will move him into the top 5 next year swear to god

  9. There are lots of guys that I think could be break out candidates and there are lots of guys I wish would be break outs but unfortunately not that many that I think will actually do it. Looking for guys that have pedigree, brown and Oliver jump to the top for me. mecias, kilome, and Garcia could all show a lot.

  10. I think A LOT of you guys aren’t using the term sleeper correctly.

    Pinto – is seen as someone who could very well be a mid rotation type arm, maybe being as high as a 2. I’ve seen him in some peoples top 20.

    Jose Pujols – Another who is in some top 20 lists, more then Pinto. Def more of a breakout candidate.

    Cord Sandberg – Same as Pujols.

    Luis Encarnation – again see Pujlos and Sandberg but make it top 30.

    To be a sleep you really can’t be a high draft pick or a somewhat big international signing, all 4 qualify for that. All are seen as players who could be impact players but some are far away.

    A good sleeper would be someone like Tyler Viza . . . I’m going with Viza and Hiciano for the sleepers. And Biddle and Sandberg as the breakout guys.

    1. I used our list only. I didn’t think that our sleeper definition said or meant the player isn’t on ANY list, but I said Pujols, but I think is the player outside our top 20 that is most likely to join our top 10 next year.

  11. I’ll give you a good sleeper – Alezones. The big kid has a great arm and throws hard but is just a reliever. He could move fast this year.

  12. Sleeper: Chris Oliver. I’ve already made the case for him a couple of times during the Top 40 voting, I think he’s got the best chance to make an Adam Morgan circa 2013 move to the top.

    Breakout: Nefi Ogando. Realize it’s a SSS, but he was impressive in the AFL. I am dreaming of him starting the season in AAA and ending the year in a fearsome eighth inning tandem with Jake Diekman. The Phillies bullpen (finally shed of Papelbon) may be the only fun part of watching the team this year.

    1. Two solid picks. I would further point out that even though the SSS, it was the first time Ogando spent extended time with Ray Burris. That could accelerate his progress.

  13. Sleeper- Samuel Hiciano

    Breakout- Andrew Knapp

    Both may start in levels they were at last year. Expect both to show improved hitting abilities and get moved up mid-season.

  14. Sleepers – Gabriel Lino & Jan Hernandez. They are #28 and #30 in my top 30. People used to be in their bandwagons but I think this season will show that they jumped off too early.

    Breakout – Severino Gonzalez & Matt Imhof. Most industry lists place Imhof in the 10 (BA) to (BP) range. The PP Readers have him 12. I have him 7. I think he is right there with Windle and Biddle just a smidgen behind Eflin, but he is relatively high on everybody’s list. On the other hand, Severino is not even listed by BA or BP and has more room to move up. He is known for his good control and command but he has a better fastball when he needs it (93) than other control specialists. He throws 5 pitches (fastball, curve, cutter, changeup, and slider). If he masters 4 of those 5 pitches along with pitch selection and consistent command, he would be a #2. While that is unlikely I think his ceiling is higher than his #5 consensus label. He was very young (21) for AA last season, learned a lot, and improved by year’s end. I think he will be stronger and in better condition as a 22-year-old after another off-season of conditioning. I think Gonzalez will start for the Iron Pigs by July and could see MLB action with the Phillies anytime during 2015.

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