PhuturePhillies Reader Top 30 #15

Carlos Tocci is the reader’s choice as the organization’s 14th ranked prospect. He scored a comfortable victory over the closest runnerups Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera.  Tocci received 96 of 316 votes (30%).  Altherr netted 37 votes and Herrera 36 votes.  Should be a close race for #15. The selections so far are listed below.

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Aaron Nola
  3. Maikel Franco
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Zach Eflin
  6. Ben Lively
  7. Jesse Biddle
  8. Kelly Dugan
  9. Tom Windle
  10. Yoel Mecias
  11. Deivi Grullon
  12. Matt Imhof
  13. Dylan Cozens
  14. Carlos Tocci

Here’s the poll for #15, no additional players.

72 thoughts on “PhuturePhillies Reader Top 30 #15

  1. Opening Day 2017 I expect alot of “Sam Soap said Knapp would be starting catcher and by God he was right!” And “Sam Soap was ahead of his time!” And “Genius!” Type comments!

    1. Sam, I hope you are right. But, after witnessing his epic fail as a DH in Clearwater before reporting to Lakewood, I need to see him have success at high A before I can get on board. I realize he was coming off rehab. Still, I need to see something this year to erase those memories.

  2. Kilome. He’s 19 and his fastball already sits low 90s, with the potential for more when he fills out (listed at 6’6″ 175 lbs). He also had success last year throwing a high-80s sinker. So, there’s big potential and some present ability too.

  3. Compare Kilome to Drew Anderson, just 9 months older, but pitching in class A in stead of the Rookie league. Look at the big difference in favor of Anderson in K/9, and similarity in the other stats. Now tell me why Kilome is worthy of # 15 while Anderson isn’t.

    I voted Odubel.

  4. I went for Altherr again. Odubel has been slumping in Venezuela while Altherr has shown that the athlete with batting skill is emerging. He has been consistent in his hitting and fields the position well.

    1. ‘Odubel has been slumping in Venezuela’…its the playoffs in the Ven….the pressure is on him to produce….he may be too young to handle now.

    2. I think the winter league performances ought to be taken with a grain of salt, unless a scouting report says something has changed.

      For me, Herrera is a year younger than Altherr and outperformed Altherr offensively last year in AA. Herrera hit .321/.373/.402 whereas Altherr hit .236/.287/.399. Herrera does not strike out nearly as much. One would have to argue that Altherr’s advantage in power and fielding makes up for Herrera’s advantage in youth and bat control/batting eye. I lean towards youth and bat control myself.

      1. Altherr has more power and I presume that he’s better as an OF. Herrera is certainly a better average hitter.

  5. I went with Altherr once again. Last year, he had a monstrous month or two that earned him a call up to the big club. His overall year looks a bit damning but I think Altherr is more like that couple of months than his end of year slide. He has to get more consistent and needs to strengthen himself for the entire year but I think he’ll get there. Maybe a taste of the bigs will strengthen his resolve.

    I’m a little surprised that Valentin isn’t getting some votes in this range of the top 15. I’ve got him at 18 in my poll and I know a lot of guys on this site are very high on him.

    1. I wouldn’t read too much into Altherr’s call ups. They coincided with Tony Gwynn going onto the bereavement list and then Domonic Brown going on the paternity list. Earlier in the month, Darin Ruf had been optioned to LHV and then suffered an injury. Tyson Gillies had been DFA-ed off the 40-man. and Zach Collier was in the process of playing himself off the 40-man by the end of the month. Kelly Dugan was just coming off the DL. I think Altherr was the only healthy outfielder on the 40-man who could be brought up. Had he been healthy, I’m sure they would have brought Ruf back. I like Altherr, but I think he was their only option on June 16th.

  6. I admit to knowing virtually nothing about Franklyn Kilome, but, looking at his stats, that 5.5 k/9 rate doesn’t look too favorable, especially since according to reports he throws hard-ish.

    1. I hear you, but at this point, early in his minor league career, the scouting reports are the most meaningful thing, especially with only 40 innings pitched and with his making the adjustments to the United States. And it’s not like he was stinking it up in his first try. His ERA was around 3 and he showed good conrol.

  7. This time last year Luis Encarnacion was all the craze. What from his first season in pro ball at age 16 is causing such a lack of interest? He’ll probably repeat a level but he’d still be one of the youngest in the league.

    1. My recollection is that scouting reports from last season indicated he’s a bat-first first baseman long-term who hasn’t shown much bat.

      1. Yeah 1B or LF which means he’ll have to hit a ton.

        He is very interesting prospect. I don’t think it has anything to do with his play last season. But he is so young and raw that it will be awhile before anyone feels they have a decent handle on him as a prospect

      2. his reports prior to signing with the phils was that his defensive was extremely raw and may have to move from the IF. That’s the first I heard about the bat. Looks like he held up pretty well for a 16 year old based on his numbers.

  8. I voted for Knapp, but there are about 4 or 5 legitimate candidates for this spot. As for Altherr, I really hope he can continue to make adjustments so his performance begins to match his physical abilities (his winter league performance was encouraging). A .686 OPS for a 23 year old outfielder in Reading (which is what he did last season) is not good at all – in fact, it’s pretty bad. He’s a 24 year old prospect now, so he needs to start hitting immediately or it’s unlikely he’ll be anything more than a AAAA player at best going forward.

    1. Try to factor out the first 2, maybe 3 weeks after he returned from the wrist injury and then see what his metrics may have looked like. That injury can be the reason for his overall pedestrian numbers at Reading.

      1. Sure he started slow but he finished slow as well. In fact he really only had one good month (June). In July and August his OPS was .701 and .677 respectively with K rates exceeding 25%.

        The defense alone will likely get him to majors on a bad Phillues team in the coming years but he needs to start hitting or it’ll be as a 5th OF

  9. If Altherr was 2-4 years younger then he’d make sense here, or sooner, but I just don’t like his floor. I’ll go Kilome, and would rather see Odubel or Aaron Brown here that Altherr

  10. So it looks like this one will be a race between a guy with a good hit tool who has succeeded in AA and will either be on that major league roster or not with the team and a toolsy guy who has had limited success. Tools are great but at some point you have to put it together for more than a month at a time. I’m not even sure where Altherr fits into the organization right now. He did not earn a promotion to AAA but Quinn should be the starting CF in AA. That puts Altherr in LF and we hope he can put together two good months (something he hitherto fore has not done) and earn a promotion to AAA?

  11. Kilome can shoot up this list next year by developing/producing this season but I can’t pit him this high on projection alone. Call it the Tocci rule. We all had him really high a few years ago on the promise that he’d add weight and we assigned what ever we could dream of to him.

    1. Couldn’t agree with you more. We overrate tools here as does the phillies organization. A guy like knapp who is just about age appropriate for his level that is proven he can hit gets put behind guys like tocci and the one tool you catcher. I don’t get it. I’ll take the guy who has a 50 percent chance to make the show with a chance to be a starter over the guy with a ten percent chance to be better than a fifth outfielder. Let’s have some perspective here.

      1. Knapp hit well in Lakewood, where he was about 2 years older than the average prospect. When he moved to Clearwater, he didn’t hit at all in a small sample. He also has major questions defensively. I like Knapp, but you’re overstating his performance.

        1. Just so the timeline is clear, after coming off rehab, Knapp DH-ed at Clearwater before going to Lakewood. And he struggled in Clearwater. I do remember when he hit his first home run and was off to Lakewood the next day with his .157/.222/.205/.427 line and 26 K in 83 AB (31%).

      2. You clearly overstate the case for Knapp, though I do like him as a prospect.

        When you are talking about teenage kids that are still developing their bodies, swings, overall game etc, tools are an essential part of the evaluation process. When a teenager has an elite tool (Grullon, Tocci) you don’t simply write them off because the other parts of his game hasn’t devoped yet.

      3. I don’t disagree with the other responses, but the real irony of this comment is that Knapp’s performance has been disappointing. There are still legitimate arguments to be made for him, but he has “proven” exactly nothing thus far.

      4. I’m not sure if you meant to imply it, but Knapp does not have a 50% chance to be a ML starter. It’s much lower than that. For a guy who is pretty much a bat-first prospect without a ton of projection, I want to see him show something with the bat. Being 22, struggling in Clearwater and then striking out 23% of the time in Lakewood isn’t “proving it” to me.

    2. Kilome reportedly added 3 MPH to his fastball during the season, so unlike Tocci we actually have evidence of progress.

            1. It’s untrue that there’s no evidence of progress with Tocci. He added weight and doubled his ISO last year.

            2. He increased his ISO and BABIP which suggests better contact, a fact which is supported by scouting reports that said he drove the ball better this past season

        1. The poster had equated Kilome to Tocci, so I thought it was relevant to bring up Tocci. I wouldn’t have brought him up if he hadn’t…

  12. I want to like Altherr. I have seen first hand flashes of a Matt Kemp like player but man he really struggles with pitch recognition and therefore doesn’t have much of a chance at being an everyday player.

  13. I’m going to stick to the top-30 list I e-mailed and go with Knapp here. Yes, his 2014, especially the failure at CLW, was very disappointing, but he was coming back from injury and picked up his game in the second half of the season. He is still the likeliest guy in our minors to be a starting MLB catcher. Since we badly need a catcher, he will be given every opportunity to succeed. We are in the area of the list where every guy comes with tons of questions. There is as much about Knapp to pique my interest as any of the others. He needs to get moving though, he was old for Lakewood last season.

  14. I went with Aaron Brown again and I’m actually surprised that he doesn’t have more of a following. I’m very excited to see how he does this coming season as a full time hitter, no longer in school. He has power, he can play the OF, and he can throw. We’ll see how his bat develops with a full year to work on it but he has the potential to be a major league OF.

    1. For me it is his poor offensive performance in the NYPL plus poor plate discipline. It is not like he is especially young. Defintiely a “show me” guy before I rank him higher.

  15. I’m curious what you guys think of Denton Keys. He was in the next group I was going to add to the poll when I stopped because the list was becoming too unwieldy. I saw Keys and Kilome 3-4 times each last season. While both looked impressive at the Carpenter Complex, I thought that Keys was the more effective of the two. So, what do you say?

    1. Personally I don’t have Keys in my top 30. It was his second year in the organization, remaining in the GCL. The Phillies have shown in the past that they’re not shy about moving young pitchers to Williamsport or even Lakewood (Viza) if they like them.

      Keys seemed to pitch well but doesn’t offer the same projection as Kilome and I never saw any really encouraging reports on his raw stuff.

      1. I think the guy that actually has looked better than both of them is Alezones but agree they are not likely to be in the top 30.

        I’d put them in pool and call them players to watch in 2015

    2. I also don’t have Keys in my top 30, but I may not be looking closely enough at him. He did significantly improve his stats between 2013 and 2014 and age 19 is not unreasonable for GCL. Increasing his K rate by more than 1.0/9 IP is a good sign and his walk rate has always been good. His ground ball rate increased markedly and is very good. His 2013 was small sample size but bad stats and perhaps that just filed him in my ‘not terribly interesting’ pile. Had he been a 2014 draftee and done what he did in GCL this year, I would have been quite interested. In the list I e-mailed you I had Keys at #39.

  16. I went with Kilome here. I actually think I had Altherr above him in the Top 25 that I posted in the comments the other day, but I confess to having been a bit dissuaded by the very reasonable arguments many (including Winkelman) have made suggesting that his year in Reading should result in a major downgrade. While I’ve made the argument that we shouldn’t get too dissuaded by stats when it comes to guys like Grullon and the #15-prospect-who-shall-not-be-further-debated-by-me, at SOME point a guy like Altherr needs to start putting it together for more than a month or two at a time.

    Anyone who has seen this guy play can see that there’s a great player someplace inside of there, a starting major league centerfielder with impressive power, and part of me still wants to believe my eyes. But yeah, the clock is ticking. This is pretty much a make or break year for him. The chips are down. Is he a prime time player? At the end of the day, he’s going to have to prove it on the field. I can go cliche for cliche with anyone, people.

  17. I’m under the camp of Odubel Herrera should not be here. A prospect isnt someone who has almost know chance of playing in the minors for us this year. So to that point, I went Andrew Knapp here.

    1. I agree. While I don’t rank our farm as highly as some posters do, I think it is much improved from last season, especially with the trades. I think we are now in top half of baseball. That in large measure why I don’t see Odubel Herrera, a guy who wouldn’t have made Texas’ top 30 as this high on our list. People seem intrigued by the hit tool, and he certainly has that. But… he is a man without a position. He seems to be a rich man’s Astudillo (who shouldn’t make our top 30). I hope I’m wrong and he turns out to be more than that. If he is even an average defensive CF, then he will be quite a lot more than that. I’ve yet to read anything saying his OF defense is adequate, let alone CF quality.

      1. I would go further. I’m not even so sure about the hit tool. His K% has been over 15% for most of his minor league career – not horrible but if that is his strongest tool I am not impressed.

        Now, I realize that hit tool is about more than just K% – but what people are getting (way over excited) about are the batting averages. And they are a product of a very high BABIP. And, yes, a BABIP that he’s been able to sustain over his minor league career – but the predictive power of even large SS minor league BABIP data is quite low. Steamer projects his major league BA as .237, and that looks about right to me.

        Astudillo at least has one very exceptional skill – superb contact data (and minor league K rates, with suitable adjustments, are, in contrast to BABIP data, predictive of major league performance).

        In sum, I find the excitement about Herrera truly baffling. If he was a full time center fielder for the Phillies in 2015 he would likely be well below replacement level. To be fair, it’s the BA and the winter league stats – though that data has (if possible) even less predictive power.

        1. LarryM, I think the excitement stems from the fact that there is very little in the system that can hit. You are much better than I ever will be at the analytics and predicting future success, but he is a guy who should be on the team and maybe he pays off like a Lottery ticket. It is not like there will be a lot going on with the Phils that he is a distraction

          1. On the team is one thing – I think you can indeed make a pretty good case for that. But some people want to see him replace Revere as the regular in center field. Sorry, that doesn’t make any sense to me.

            Look, this Phillies’ team is going to be bad regardless. But if we really listened to the Play the kids crowd across the board we would be looking at perhaps the worst team in in major league baseball history – and yes, I think avoiding that is a worthy goal.

            1. Wait, but Larry, he’s the MVP of the Venezuelan Winter League! That means he’s the Mike Trout of Venezuela. The most Mike Trout-esque player in Venezuelan history is Bobby Abreu. So Odubel Hererra MIGHT JUST BE the next Bobby Abreu. Let’s hope he makes the team just for the sake of causing Howard Eskin’s head to explode.

    2. I was not going to include Herrera. But, since we are following the same rules that BA is following on prospect eligibility, I contacted Matt Eddy at BA. They are considering all rule 5 selections as they extend their prospect lists out to 30.

  18. I went Green here. Over Sandberg, Knapp, Kilome, even Brown. Big Power, his contact rate improved greatly from last year. Struggled with an injury but still produced well for Lakewood.

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