Reader Top 30 #10

Sorry for my brevity (and no pic) here, but I messed up my hand and am reduced from hunt-and-peck to just peck. You have selected Tom Windle as the #9 prospect. Windle amassed 22.47% of the 316 votes cast and edged Yoel Mecias by 13 votes.

The current prospect ranking is –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Aaron Nola
  3. Maikel Franco
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Zach Eflin
  6. Ben Lively
  7. Jesse Biddle
  8. Kelly Dugan
  9. Tom Windle

I was happy to see Jesus Alastre and Percy Garner receive the Other votes. I will add them to a later poll. No additions to poll #10.

61 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #10

    1. It is tough to pick between Mecias and Imhof, but I lean Imhof because he does not have the major injury that Mecias did. They are the same age. Both have had some success. Imhof looks to have better control, Mecias has better stuff. Tough call except for the injury part, so I go with Imhof.

  1. Arano should start to get some votes in this area. The kid has a higher KWHIP than all the righties but Lively and a decent enough sample size in 135 IP.

    Mitch Walding Really? who was that his pops! The Gueller pitching experiment should be over and he should get a shot to see what he can do with the bat.

    1. Agreed on Arano, he pitched well as a 19-year-old last year, seems like his control isn’t too bad and he can strike some guys out. The one scouting report I read made him sound like he has MLB potential – 90-93 FB, solid slider, potential for a solid change. He should enjoy pitching in the FSL this year.

    2. I have Arano at 16. He’s more advanced than most pitchers his age but he doesn’t seem to have the upside you might expect for a 19 year old in A ball. He definitely has the potential to move up rankings if he has a good year in Clearwater though.

  2. Voted Grullon again, although I think both him and Mecias should have been considerably higher on this list.

    Also, for a guy that is constantly maligned as overrated, Tocci has really drastically fallen from favor this year. The second half of his season was pretty good for a guy who is still much younger than the competition. I don’t disagree that he slides this year (based as much on overall strengthening of the system as his own failings) but I don’t see ranking him below someone like Imhof, who has such blah stuff he might not even make my own Top 15, or Cozens (a defensively limited slugger who actually didn’t slug all that impressively) or Hererra (a guy without a clear position who might very well not be in the organization come April 1).

    Tocci, by contrast, improved his hitting–admittedly, from a low base–and by most accounts is a gifted fielder. As we all know, it a matter of building strength, but give me a teenager who needs to get stronger (as teenagers usually do) over a 21-year-old pitcher whose fastball tops out at 92, who lacks great secondary pitch, and struggles with command.

    1. Good points. While I have always liked Tocci I understand his sliding in the rankings due to improvement (modest) in the entire system. I agree I’d rather have a gifted teenager who basically needs to grow up physically over a mature college pitcher who has probably reached his upside.

    2. I went with Imhof because I believe that the Phils’ professional scouts, who get paid to evaluate players, know more than all of us. They took Imhof in the 2nd round because they see something in him. I trust their judgement, at least until he gets on the field and fails. Last year, I thought he had a nice start to his career. I do like Grullon also but we’re talking about a 19 yr old catcher who can’t hit yet. I have him 12th (before Biddle at 13).

      1. I fail to see how Imhof’s draft position demonstrates anything other than the (possible) fact that the Phillies draft evaluators thought he was the best person left on the board at that point in the second round. (I say “possible” because there’s some chance they liked someone like Brown or Oliver even more but thought he would be possible to get later.) When it comes to comparing him with players drafted other years, or signed out of Latin America, or drafted via trade … I’m not sure draft position is a particular relevant data point.

    3. I’m admittedly not a tocci or cozzens fan so this may sound biased but I don’t think saying imhoff “struggles with command” is accurate.

  3. Altherr isn’t getting as many votes as Cozens which to me seems a bit odd. I’m a fan of Cozens but Altherr is closer to the show and has about the same upside playing a more premier position in CF. Of course both have red flags but I would expect Altherr to be higher on the lists than Cozens.

    1. Yeah, I second that. I like Cozens’ power and I feel like I’ve always been higher on him that most (the splits away from Lakewood’s home field are particularly encouraging). That said, Altherr has a nice set of tools himself.

      I mean, Altherr’s numbers in Reading weren’t great, but he stayed on the field and even managed to get a cup of coffee in the big leagues. By contrast, Kelly Dugan plays a less valuable position and was hurt a lot of the season. Yet Dugan moves up in the rankings from #9 to #8 and Altherr seems likely to slide from #8 to … maybe somewhere in the #12 to #15 range? That doesn’t seem quite right to me.

      1. I mean, I get that Dugan’s AA stats look better than Altherr’s if you project them over a full season, but “if he only manages to stay healthy” is one of the biggest caveats there is in sports.

        1. Yes, and Dugan, while I like him, hasn’t shown that he can stay healthy as of this point.

          I guess it’s a sign of a growing system when Altherr falls in the rankings like he has. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him by the end of this season in Philly.

      2. Altherr appears to have the ability and physical tools to be a good player. Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown enough yet to actually be a good player. Comments that he’ll be in Philly before the year is out are highly optimistic. However, watching him play, he does seem to have the potential to be the player we hope he can be.
        Dugan on the other hand looks like a good player and has put up decent numbers when he can stay on the field. His durability is a real concern though. If I had to bet, I doubt either will ever be a major league regular but they both could be. Altherr’s skills certainly lend themselves to at least 4th OF but that’s not all that a real prospect should aspire to.

      3. What worries me about Cozzens and Altherr is the length in the swing. I want to like Zach Green as well but I’ve seen his bat speed described as below average to slow. Dugan seems to be a much better contact hitter than any of these guys with the build to develop power in the majors. My questions about the others are serious enough for me to doubt highly that any of them will even make it to the show. I put Dugan’s chances of being a major leaguer somewhere around 80/20

    2. The more Altherr fails (and last season was not good for him), the more we’ll all put Cozens above him as he’s coming up the trail. That is, until Cozens also fails, which is certainly possible. Once a prospect has a bad year, without injury causing it, he really drops down the ladder until he re-earns it. Zack Green wasn’t good last year but he fought thru an injury all year and evened seem to improve as the year went on. This year will be an important one for Green and Cozens, as well as Altherr and Dugan. They all need to stay on the field and keep improving because they’re our best hitting prospects after JP and Franco but they all have red flags.

      1. Altherr had a weird year. He started off the season injured and started really slowly as he worked his way back from that. Then in June he was on fire: a .382 OBP and a .920 OPS. Then he was called up the the majors, got a cup of coffee. Then he struggled the rest of the way. I’m not going to argue that it was a great season, but you do have to wonder how the whole call-up impacted him mentally. He’s always been a bit of a slow learner, and he was a little young for the league last year, so I’ll be interested to see what he does next year. I wonder if he’ll start off in AA, since Quinn may not be ready, or if they’ll push him to AAA as the emergency CF. They don’t appear to have anyone capable of backing up Revere on the roster at the moment, unless you really buy into the experiment with Odubel. (Or should I say: Odubel down on it?)

        1. For a prospect, Altherr was not young for Reading last year. He was 23 the whole season. If anything he was a little old. He put up a .287 OBP and a sub-.700 OPS in a favorable environment for right handed batters. He’s had four years of full season ball and he’s only been able to put up average numbers one year. It seems like there’s a fairly overwhelming amount of evidence he can’t make enough contact to become a hitter you’d want long term on a big league roster.

          Cozens certainly could fall into the same category, but he’s got legitimate plus in-game power. There’s a chance he might be able to hit the ball hard enough when he does make contact to overcome the strikeouts. The jury is still out, but at least there’s a chance.

          1. Ok, point taken on the age, I was just looking at the Baseball Reference numbers, but you’re right, they’re probably skewed older by some of the roster filler. I guess I’d just say that everyone gave up on him prior to the 2013 season and he put together a nice year. No doubt that he’s a guy who has had trouble putting it all together. I’m not saying he’s still a Top 10 prospect. But he’s still got some upside. I’d rank him somewhere right around here, slightly ahead of Cozens and Dugan.

          2. Agree. He was a below average hitter last year in ideal hitting conditions after his positive CLW year was filed partially by a .360 BABIP. With the defense he still projects as a 4th or 5th OF which is probably means you could place him anywhere from 11th to 17th

        2. I could see Altherr starting in one of the corners in Reading. He seems to need more time in AA for his bat, but he’s behind Quinn in priority. If he hits well enough he could force a call-up to AAA and slide back to CF.

          1. I’ve been playing around with that too. Will he start the season as the RF in Reading or as the CF in LHV? I think Quinn will start in Reading with Tocci in CWater, both in CF, and I think the Phils want Altherr to stay in CF where he has more value.

      2. Altherr battled through a significant wrist injury last year that sapped his power. He came on towards the end of the year as his wrist got healthy and he regained strength.

    3. It’s an interesting debate. Altherr has the higher floor and their ceilings seem about even. However, Altherr will be 24 next year and is therefore seen as being closer to a finished product. It seems unlikely that he’ll hit enough to be a starting CF, so I think that’s why he drops in the rankings.

      1. I think this is right. Both have huge hit tool concerns but Cozens is much younger and farther away and therefore has more time to develop.

        Altherr has a huge advantage defensively but if he doesn’t produce with the bat this year you have to wonder if he ever will.

  4. Mecias again, then Imhoff since I went Mecias yesterday. But, looking over this list again, I actually am feeling pretty good about the Top 10. I know we don’t have the high end guy that the national guys can talk about, but I believe that Crawford is That guy as this season progresses. And, these Pitchers are much more than what we have had. I think Franco after another month or so in LHV is right there as well. All in all, optimistic today.

    1. I think it’s a mix. All came from strong systems and many are excited to see what they can do. Also the pitching depth in the upper minors stinks so these guys get an automatic bounce from the lack of quality arms there.

      1. Amended: all came from systems stronger than the Phillies. The Reds system is mediocre at best.

        1. However it is strong in pitching prospects – they have five guys in their top ten (excl Lively) that project as #3 or #4 starters according to Fangraphs.

  5. Mecias here, Grullon next for my selections. I don’t know about anyone else, but this is the point where my list turns from pitcher-heavy to position-player-heavy. I don’t think I have more than 2 or 3 pitchers in my next 10 slots.

  6. I think talent takes a big step down right about here. Our 9-15 prospects wouldn’t be in the top 20 in most systems.

      1. I disagree with both statements. I believe the dropoff was somewhere around 4 or 5 and after that steep drop, it levels out until around 18. That’s why so many prospect lists differ so drastically for 2015

  7. I went for Altherr. He has been hitting well this winter against good pitching in Venezuela. He is one of those good athletes they drafted with the old philosophy that has almost paid off with Brown, but hasn’t made it with anyone else. I think Altherr will show a lot this year. It is like playing only for the big jackpot by picking the best athletes. You don’t get rwarded often, but when it happens, it is pure joy.

  8. Cozens he almost put up an 20/20 season. He never was in a full baseball season before.lets see what he does in a better home stadium as per hitting wise.

  9. Ok, seat of the pants, here’s my Top 25 as of right now:

    1 Crawford
    2 Nola
    3 Franco
    [big drop]
    4 Quinn
    5 Mecias
    6 Zach Eflin
    7 Ben Lively
    8 Grullon
    9 Jesse Biddle
    10 Carlos Tocci
    11 Franklyn Kilome
    12 Aaron Altherr
    13 Kelly Dugan
    14 Dylan Cozens
    15 Matt Imhof
    16 Tom Windle
    17 Nefi Ogando
    18 Odubel Herrera
    19 Cord Sandberg
    20 Zach Green
    21 Chris Oliver
    22 Aaron Brown
    23 Jesmuel Valentin
    24 Jose Pujols
    25 Joely Rodriguez

    1. Every year I talk myself into getting ultra-aggressive with one ranking, this year it’s Mecias. More often than not it ends up not panning out. So even I have doubts about my own list.

    2. I like your top 10 better than the boards’ top 10. But in your top 20, I would place Imhof and Windle a few spots higher.
      The only other issue I’d have is: Where’s Louis Encarncion? He’s top 15 for me, and I have him much higher than Jose Pujols.

        1. I also forgot about him, mostly because he’s still 17 and has hardly played at all in the US. I realize that stats are pretty meaningless at his stage of development, but it’s really hard to assess him based on what we know at this point. The good news is we have, like, a really long time to get to know him better!

    3. I like your list. To me it’s missing Ricardo Pinto and Victor Arano, but as others have noted it’s hard to separate guys in a certain range. As for Encarnacion, I have him just outside the top 30 because he’s a first baseman all the way, so the pressure on his bat is huge.

  10. I’m not sure I understand why Ben Lively ended up 6th when a vote was held and 55% of people voted him 7th or worse. 34% 8th or worse and only 45% 6th or better. It seems those results would put him 7th.

  11. I went with Mecias then I’ll go Imhoff, Grulon, Altherr, Arano. Also, what’s the name of the pitcher the Phils had in the Mexican league last year?

  12. 2015 Phillies Prospects: The Baby Middle of the Rotation Guys

    or if you’re less optimistic: The Baby Back-Enders (oh wait, that means two things)

  13. Voted Cozens since I’ve ranked him higher than Dugan who holds my 10th spot

    1. Crawford
    2. Franco
    3. Nola
    4. Quinn
    5. Eflin
    6. Cozens
    7. Lively
    8. Biddle
    9. Imhof

    Mecias, Altherr, Windle, Grullon in consideration for the start of the next 10.

    I agree with most that the system is relatively weak after 3 (Nola/Franco) but also agree with DisFriggin Guy. The mid-10 is weak, and not the specific players ranked here, but just that they’re ranked as high as they are due to a lack of better options. And Franco should lose rookie status at some point in 2015 (hopefully Nola does not).

    We really need some of the draftees from the past two drafts to break out a bit. Or of course, we can trade one of the best left SPs in baseball for our no. 4 and no. 5 prospects (plus a young non-eligible prospect such as Wil Myers). In either event, the system is bound to look fugley in 18-months when Crawford, Franco and Nola are no longer eligible. Of course, we’ll have another high 1st rd picks over that time as well.

    1. In 18 months, a ton can happen. Where was the system in June of 2013? Franco was just having his breakout year, Crawford was just drafted and Nola wasn’t anywhere to be found.

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