Open Discussion: Week of January 5th

Weekly Discussion

I didn’t have enough time to gather the Winter Ball data.  They aren’t posting it with the off season stats, I have to gather it box score by box score.  I did get this from the DWL (thru Saturday) as they begin an 18-game round-robin playoff round among the top 4 finishers.

  • Maikel Franco – 5 G, 21 AB, 2 R, 6 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 4 K, .286 BA, 2 E (1 fielding, 1 throwing)
  • Nefi Ogando – 2 G, 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 GO, 1 FO, 9 BF, 1 Hold
  • Hector Neris – 3 G, 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 1 GO, 1 FO, 11 BF
  • Luis Garcia – 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 3 GO, 0 FO, 6 BF, 1 Hold

Not bad, eh?

128 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of January 5th”

    1. Its really a can’t lose deal, getting him for 1 year. Someone has to pitch for us and he threw 200 innings last year.
      As for the guys above, I think Garcia makes the team while Neris will be an early pen call up from LHV. Hopefully, Franco starts in LHV for more seasoning but a trade of Howard and strong spring training would get Franco on the team to start the year.

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      1. Look at what Roberto “Carmona” Hernandez brought back. That’s all we ask for. Plus it’s a good deal for Harang. I’m sure he’d like a shot at the playoffs and possibly WS. He could try to sign with a contender now but who will the team get there and will they want him right now. A lot of things change during the season and playoff teams need a guy like him to get them over the hump. Win/Win.

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  3. Think there is more alue in flipping if they can get a healthy Wandy. Any new news on him passing the physical / signing?

    With a healthy Wandy, Harang, and Buchanan/ Williams / MAG as 3-5 starters at least we might hang in there and make watching more interesting.

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    1. I agree, flipping Wandy would bring back more than Harang. Hopefully Harang will be good enough to at least get us what we got back for Hernandez, but if Wandy is healthy we could get a nice return.

      From 2008-13 he averaged a 3.56 ERA. If he can get back or at least close to that type of production he could net us a notable return.

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    3. Actually if Lee returns to full health, and Hamels isn’t traded, the staff could be valued better then last years with Burnett and Kendrick totaling $24M between them.

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  4. I can’t imagine there will be much of a market by contending teams for a #4 starter. If you’re a contending team, and you think Harang will be the piece that puts you over the top, well, good luck with that.

    That said, we were able to move RH to the Dodgers last year, and received a couple of okay pieces, so who knows?

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    1. and Phils traded for Joe Blanton a few years ago to be what, a #3 or $4 starter? So I wouldnt say contending teams arent looking for a middle of the rotation, innings eater type guy.

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      1. Yes, and didn’t mighty Joe Blanton win in the world series. Remember that mammoth home run he hit! That was the first and last he ever hit…I think I remember them saying since like high school.

        Never know who will be a hero once in the WS. Eric Bruntlet scored a winning run after getting hit by a pitch in one of those games. I’m feeling trivial today.

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        1. So many great moments. Jimmy’s double and Matt Stairs’ home run against the Dodgers. Myers vs. Sabathia, Victorino’s grand slam. WFC!

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    2. I think the Phillies traded Roberto Hernandez to the first place dodgers all of last year so you are right and wrong

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  5. I have to know. I keep reading, Phillies cant rebuild until Howards contract is gone, Why cant they just eat the money, they have it and play Franco.

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    2. rocco…I think Ruben wants to salvage something for Howard.
      You know as well as I, that once he is released outright some AL team will sign him at the league minimum and make him their DH. Go on to club 25/30HRs, drive in 90 plus and lead that team into the playoffs….how do you think Ruben will then feel?
      Truly moving Howard alone in a trade nets zilch. So if he wants any return he needs to package him with other bodies…..Phillies have some nice young RP arms that other teams may be interested in.

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      1. If there’s really that much of a chance for Howard to get back to respectable value, why not keep him and platoon with Ruf and trade him at the deadline?

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          1. I would think the situation’s changed but who really knows?

            I can’t see the Phillies not giving Ruf a prominent role at first base with Utley and Asche getting time there as well when Franco’s called up.

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        2. I think playing 1B has become too much for him, as it did for Thome. He needs to be a DH. As a DH his bat may well rebound, as Thome’s did. Howard hasn’t had healthy legs since 2010 and playing as much as he did last year didn’t help at all.

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      2. I don’t give up a young pitcher just to move Howard +50 million. I mean just keep the young arm and cut him at that point. Don’t give up a bullpen piece to save face.

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      3. How about Howard, Brown & Hamels for a piece of sidewalk chewing gum? Is that a good package? A lot of money gone, don’t have to think about Brown again and that piece of gum might still have some flavor in it. I sure hope it’s bazooka.

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  6. Hip hip Harang I like the deal wish it was Anderson or someone younger but we Need some one to fill in until we trade Howard, pap and lee.

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  8. Any word on Pettibone, Morgan and Joseph? Imagine if those 3 guys are healthy and in the mix?

    Also am I one of the few who still has major concerns that Franco will hit and hit for power at the major league level?

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    1. Pettibone and Morgan are coming off injuries. They are going to start them slow at AAA and see what happens. You can’t tell them to throw 180 innings at the big league level right out of the gate. That’s why Harang was signed for 1 year, he’s an innings eater.

      When Harang, Williams, and Lee get traded at the break, whoever is doing well will get called up. That list will also include Nola.

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      1. My guess is that they’ll keep Morgan in CWater in Extended to start the year. MAG can have his spot in the LHV rotation initially. As for Pettibone, I believe he’s farther behind and not expected back before mid season. Joseph is expected to be ready for spring training as far as I know.

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        1. I was really hoping MAG would play in the Winter leagues but he opted to work out the way he used to prepare in Cuba. I feel he needed some innings to stretch out his arm, if he wants to be a starter. He didn’t do that so I’m a little ticked off and unsure he’ll ever be a starter and might be the last guy in the bullpen. And only because their paying him too much money to be spanked around the minor leagues.

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    2. The power is real Joe. Franco just turned 22 in August so he still add some strength in the coming years. I’m hoping he starts the year in LV regardless the results in ST. He needs a few hundred more ABs at AAA, not to mention that clock thing we need to worry about.

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      1. Wandy will make 40, but the Phils’ and Amaro like going into spring training with less than 40. I think, barring another move, Aumont is likely to be the first DFA.

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        1. Not sure Aumont is the first to be DFA’d. Think about it this way. He still has one of the best relief arms in the minors. Since 2015 is a rebuilding year, doesn’t he have more upside than some of the other candidates to be DFA’d? Ideally I give him one more chance to win a job.

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            1. Now that this organization is officially in rebuilding mode, the right thing to do with Aumont is to give him a bullpen job from day 1 and instill some confidence in him by doing so, and seeing what he can do. Use him early in low leverage situations and if he performs well, you can increase his role. If he does not perform well, then at least you gave him a chance and both parties can move on.

              He has been back and forth so much over the years, which for the most part has been deserved due to his inconsistency, but I’d make one last try with him by throwing him a big bag of confidence and seeing what he does with it.

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            2. My intent would be to have him on the major league roster if he earns it. Wouldn’t it be reasonable to think that he has a better chance of being an above average bullpen piece than say a Cesar Jimenez. Nothing against Cesar, but there are 10 of him out there for free. Aumont may not deserve another chance, but stuff is stuff.

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            3. He’ll get his shot in spring training. He’s probably up against Garcia, Hollands, Jimenez, MAG (if he relieves) and the rule 5 guy Oliver for three spots. My guess is that they keep Hollands, Garcia, and Oliver and send MAG to LHV to start and trade Aumont for someone else’s failed guy.

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          2. Andy, I jumped the gun. Wandy won’t automatically go on the 40-man when he passes his physical. He is a non-roster invitee. But, if the need were to occur, who do you think would be the first guy off the roster?

            One of the catchers? If Rupp or Joseph come off, it would likely be for a Nieves-type signing to back up Ruiz and you don’t gain a roster spot.

            One of the the infielders? Herrera has to remain on the roster and if he sticks at the end of spring training it will likely be as an outfielder. Galvis is the de facto starter at SS, Howard, Utley, and Asche round out the infield. Hernandez is your utility infielder, and Franco is Franco. In all likelihood, depending on how they handle Herrera, a back up SS may have to be added to the 40-man and take up another roster spot.

            One of the outfielders? Sizemore, Revere, and Brown hold down spots. Ruf? Altherr? Dugan? I don’t know that I would take one of these guys off the 40-man to keep Aumont.

            Among the pitchers, the strength of the relievers has made Aumont expendable and the Phillies have been acquiring starters this off season. The young guys are all pitching well in the Winter Leagues. Who would go ahead of Aumont? (Remember he was hit hard in 4 of his 5 appearances last season and didn’t even warrant a September call-up.) Pettibone? Martin? Ramirez?

            There certainly are other options. And, obviously, I already think it would be Aumont. But it certainly might spark an interesting discussion.

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            1. I’d probably DFA Luis Garcia or Jimenez if given a choice. Good chance they clear waivers and really they are not pieces of a future 2 years from now. They probably can get a catcher on a minor league deal, though I assume they will add 1-2 more players (OF).

              I guess I am fine losing any older players who are not part of the future in waiver maneuverings. The Aumont saga could be over in spring training anyway if he does not pitch well. I would just rather give the plus arm one more shot.

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        2. Why do you think Wandy will make the team? I’m not so sure he has anything left. He’ll be given a shot, if they actually sign him (nothing has yet to be announced). He’s insurance in the event that Hamels gets traded.

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            1. I have been watching Aumont for a while living inbetween Reading and Allentown, plus his Philly appearances. However, what struck me the most was when I went to Clearwater last March and watched him pitch against the Blue Jays up close.

              I sat right in front of the dugout and Aumont had this like, they can’t touch me attitude as he went into the game, which is like cool, but than he could not get the ball over the plate, and had to be yanked and his attitude was like he did something wonderful. It really soared my opinion of him beyond him choking in MLB games.

              Yes he throws harder than most but its been like 5 years and every spring we say give him another shot because he can throw a ball thru a brick wall, but I think his problem goes beyond being consistent in MLB games. I think he may need something to adjust his perspective.

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  10. I think there is something about the MLB “clock” with Franco. I think I heard that he could play in AAA til around Memorial Day before his Service Clock hits. So he should get at least 100-150 AB before coming up to Philly.

    I wasn’t trying to stir stuff about my concern for him. For once I was right when I predicted that he would struggle in September and have few homers. I am just concerned whether he will be closer to .260 than .160.

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    1. Does Franco fall under the Super Two parameters?
      I believe that formula for the length is 2.133 ( two years and 133 days of service).
      So the Phillies may want to delay the arbitration period on him down the road, by waiting until July or whenever in July MLB deems is the new date.

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  11. DMAR, not sure if you’re there (though anyone else is welcome to check this out) but I built a very early prototype excel model on how to evaluate pitchers using your kWHIP philosophy. Given that it’s pretty rudimentary right now, I’m taking comments! File is located here:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr1pajuwat2bcdq/kWHIP.xlsx?dl=0

    It’s not yet populated with any real pitcher data, but I did include 10 “fake” pitchers to begin testing it. If anyone wants to take this and run with it let me know, I would be happy to begin populating it with real data and stress testing it, I’m sure lots of changes will be warranted.

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    1. What do you guys think about normalizing the hits part of WHIP to .300 BABIP, since pitcher converge on that number?

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      1. That’s not a half bad idea, the only open item there is that it wouldn’t account for any pitcher who for whatever unquantifiable reason has a career BABIP against of something other then .300? Take Cole Hamels, he has a BABIP against of .285 in his career, which is definitely a sufficiently large sample size to say it’s legit.

        I’d say the use of that depends on your sample size, the best way to do it would be to say… <250 IP = .300, 250 = (.300 + BABIPa) / 2, >500 = BABIPa

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        1. SUPRA I published the full KWHIP INDEX sheet to my web page so you can access it there and see if any of that real data is usable. You can email me there and we can evolve the thing over there instead of cluttering up the discussion here.

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        1. But that isn’t fair if some skill a player has generates a BABIP below league average, even if it isn’t quantifiable (go back to my Cole Hamels example w/ a career babip of .285)

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          1. I do think some skill is involved but you are talking about a very minor difference in the case of Hamels. League wide BABIP has been between to .295-.299 in recent years and a range of .290-.310 is where most pitchers will fall over a large enough sample size (you generally need a much larger sample size for pitcher BABIP to have value). So Hamels is a little better than the average range which, though helped by largely playing on very good defensive teams and his fly ball/ground ball ratios.

            Kershaw, despite his high fly ball rate, is a better case for the skill argument. But he’s an outlier.

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            1. I wonder if there is a correlation between beneficial BABIP and a pitcher that gets players out by changing speeds like cole does.

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      3. Sportvision’s Hit f/x data measures hard contact and eliminates the need for a stat like BABIP. Although it has been around for several years, Hit f/x is not in the public domain and rather expensive to obtain. Teams have this data.

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    2. I’m here and I’ll check it out. I’ve loaded a bunch of data on my sheet past present ; minors and MLB stats and separate tabs for relievers to study.

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    1. Collier was DFA-ed from the 40-man on 6/27, and outrighted to Reading on 6/30 (to make room for Koyie Hill when Carlos Ruiz went on the DL, I think). He became a free agent this off season.
      Per Matt Eddy at BA (note: I deleted the non Phillies portion from the text.)
      Thirteen players selected in the first three rounds of the 2008 draft are free for the first time to choose their next employer after becoming minor league free agents on Nov. 3.
      The group includes supplemental pick Zach Collier (Phillies).
      In the case of Collier and the 12 other players, they qualified for minor league free agency because they: (1) signed a minor league Uniform Player Contract (UPC) in 2008, and (2) have not been released from that UPC, and (3) are not a member of a 40-man roster.
      Teams can renew a player’s UPC six times—for the 2009-14 seasons, in the case of 2008 draft picks—before the player either is declared a minor league free agent or his club makes him a major leaguer by adding him to the 40-man roster.
      Major League Baseball grants free agency to all eligible players—major and minor league alike—five days after the conclusion of the World Series, and MLB furnished Baseball America with the free agent listing you see below.
      Free agents are listed alphabetically by position, with closing minor league level in parentheses. As was the case last year, 86 percent of free agents finished on either Triple-A (AAA) or Double-A (AA) rosters.
      Philadelphia Phillies
      RHP: Chris Bootcheck (AA), Brad Lincoln (AAA), B.J. Rosenberg (AAA)
      LHP: Matt Hoffman (AA), Greg Smith (AAA)
      C: Lars Davis (AAA), Raywilly Gomez (AA), Koyie Hill (AAA), Sebastian Valle (AAA)
      1B: Jim Murphy (AAA)
      2B: Albert Cartwright (AA), Tyler Henson (AAA), Nate Spears (AAA), Matt Tolbert (AA)
      OF: Leandro Castro (AAA), Zach Collier (AA), Brandon Short (Hi A)

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  13. With the additions of Eflin, Windle and Lively, I am beginning to think that the Phillies have resigned themselves to the fact that they do not believe Pettibone, Morgan and Watson will ever pitch again to their past healthy effectiveness due to the shoulder injuries/ailments they incurred.

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    1. I like the strategy of stockpiling arms like those, especially with the Phillies payroll. In theory the Phils can buy an ace, they don’t need to develop one.

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  14. On Rule 5 rules:
    A team can stash a guy on their roster without offering him back if out of the six month season the player is active on the 25-man roster for 3 months or 90 days.
    Is that 90 consecutive days or is it 90 days interspersed thru the season?

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    1. 90 days without leaving the major league roster (must either be on active roster or on DL). During the year following the draft, the player cannot be optioned at all. The 90 day rule only truly applies to players who were not active for 90 days during the first year, and must meet the requirement in subsequent year in order to be optioned to the minor.

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  15. One time highly touted Phils Pitching prospect Tyler Cloyd released by Indians today, going to pitch overseas.

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    1. yes the failure of a 18th rd selection who had a cup of coffee with the big club who maximized his potential. I personally wish they failed like this with every one of their draft picks.

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  17. I like what the Phils are doing with the acquisition of young pitching. With Buchanan, Pettibone, and Morgan as possibilities, and Rodriguez, Oliver, Windle, Elfin, and Lively acquired, along with Biddle, Nola, and Imhoff, the Phils could have a #3, #4, and #5 in this mix, and 1-2 extras to be used in a trade for a #1 or #2.

    They can certainly afford a true ace through free agency and acquire a David Price type before FA with some of these arms, and fill 3-5 with young, inexpensive arms.

    If Franco, Crawford, and Quinn develop as we hope, this team could be a contender in 3 years, especially if the right Hamels deal is struck.

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  18. I don’t want to come off as whiny or complain, and I love stockpiling these guys, but would it kill them to get a guy who throws 95? Maybe seeing Kendrick year in and year out for the last seven years has tainted me, but I feel like “stuff” guys get hit once they get to the majors. Now I know it’s also true that a flat 100mph fast ball also gets hit in the majors, but thats what coaching is for. That is my feeling with Aumont, if he went to a team that knew how to coach pitchers, hed be dominant by now. He kind of reminded me of Farnsworth when Farnsworth went to Tampa and they actually taught him how to pitch, only we don’t have that kind of coaching. Thats why he, Rosenberg, or DeFratus never became the monster dominant pitcher we had hoped based on their arm (i guess theres still time for DeFratus).

    So yeah, in short, I don’t want to sound like I’m not happy with these guys, but great, now its time to add some guys who can actually overpower a hitter.

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    1. De Fratus’ fastball averages about 92 mph. I think he never became a dominant reliever because his stuffed regressed somewhere along the way. While I’m sure the Phillies would love to get some guys who sit mid-90s and have great stuff, it’s hard to get those guys unless you’re trading better and/or younger players than the ones we’ve dealt so far.

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    2. Eflin can touch 96-97, Nola up to 96 this year, J Rodriguez up to 95, Chris Oliver up 97, Kilome up to 95, Arano has been up 96 in relief, Ogando is up to 100, Pinto up to 96, Windle 95-96 in short stints. Velocity in many ways his overvalued in judging prospects, there is a hump you need to get over, but only 31 starters even average 93 mph on their fastball in the majors last year (only 10 at 94). By the way the Phillies current relievers/prospects top out at 101-Giles, 99-Diekman, 97-A Oliver, 96-Araujo, 95-Neris, 99-Garcia, 98-M. Gonzalez, 95-Hollands, on top of Ogando up to 100. There are things to get upset with the Phillies pitching, velocity not the best argument right now.

      Aumont doesn’t have control, not because he has bad coaching, but because he is 6’7″ 260 and too unathletic to hold a delivery together for more than a batter.

      Also for reference Kendrick only averaged over 90 mph once (2009 when he was a reliever), that is below where the guys they got are.

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    3. If you listened to Randy Johnson these past few days he talks about how hard it is for a tall guy to master his mechanics. I think the biggest problem with Aumont is his attitude in how he handles this struggle.

      I wouldn’t give up on him so long as I felt he had the right make up to figure it out. He is only 26.

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    1. We could really use a guy like Piscotty in the system. Wouldn’t mind a deal where he headlines.

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      1. Piscotty is a good one, also I would like local kid LHP Rob Kaminsky, but the guy who really intrigues me, though he would have to be a PTBNL since he was drafted in 2014, and under DMAR’s KWHIP with a SSS metric, would be RHP Jack Flaherty.

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    2. I know the org. doesn’t want to include any money with moving Hamels because his contract is certainly reasonable. However, if they want more than a reasonable return then they have to make Hamels more appealing.

      If they ate $25-30mil on Hamels deal than he automatically is much more appareling.

      $25mil would leave the cards paying 71/4yrs (17.75 per year) or 91/5yrs (18.2)

      $30mil would leave the cards paying 66/4yrs (16.5 per year) or 86/5yrs (17.2)

      $16.5-18.5mil per year for 4-5 years of Hamels is much lower than what free agents are going for. If this type of money is sent they should be able to get 2 very good prospects to start the deal. In comment sections on other sites I’m seeing Phillies and Cards fans use C. Martinez and Piscotty in a lot of potential deals.

      The Cards have a lot of talent to pick from. Sending Hamels with cash would help bring in some higher prospects than what we have gotten so far in trades. There isn’t much incentive for a team to give up quality prospects for Hamels right now bc he isn’t a huge bargain. Throwing in the money makes him a huge bargain bc you won’t get a player of his caliber anywhere near 65-75mil/4yrs with an option for a 5th.

      I would imagine the Tigers demands for Price are very high considering they are a contending team and have a depleted farm system. Scherzer’s name has also come up with the cards. I’m not sure they would be willing to go 8 yrs and close to 200mil for Scherzer, while giving up a draft pick).

      Eating some money on Hamels deal makes him hands dow the best option of the bunch and one that would net a significant return.

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      1. I can’t agree that Hamels at $94 million and 0 compensation isn’t a huge bargain. Sit it next to the Lester deal this year and what the deals are likely to be next year if you are a team built to win now its worth it.

        I guess if you are the Phillies and kicking in $20 entices the Cards to give you a 3rd top flight prospect (Kaminsky) in the deal you don’t even blink you just do it. I don’t think its necessary get to Martinez and Piscotty as the headlines and possibly a guy like Rowan Wick since they are likely to keep Heyward long term.

        As Romus says their best pitching prospect is probably Flaherty but he is just 19. I guess if you thought he might be ready in 3 seasons you target him instead of Martinez.

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        1. Hamels contract is definitely a bargain for us. We couldn’t sign an ace for what Hamels makes now. Other teams may not look at 4-5 years of Hamels for $96-110mil as such a bargain if they are giving up quality young, cost controlled players in the process.

          The money added to Hamels is what helps net us the deal we want for Hamels. Instead of a top prospect, a mid-level prospect and third lesser prospect we could land two top prospects, a midlevel prospect and maybe a lesser prospect.

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      2. The Cardinals don’t usually go for the most high profile guy/expensive in free agency. It’s usally the very solid or undervalued guy. They are not cheap, they just like solid values. Just as likely, they engineer a trade and then sign the player long term. I could see Jordan Zimmerman ending up on the Cardinals for example.

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      1. Not anxious at all in fact it will be the biggest kick in the nuts I might have to endure as a Phillies fan but the realist in me says its going to happen at some point in the near future.

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      2. Reasons I am anxious to see Hamels go…

        1) Our farm system is improving, but could use a boost from trading Hamels. We have started creating some prospect depth, which is great. Now it is time to add a little more quality over quantity to the mix.

        2) With the surplus of FA SP next off season we won’t have as much leverage as we do now.

        3) Hamels more than likely will not be an ace by the time we can compete again.

        4) If Hamels becomes injured or for whatever reason declines sooner than expected our rebuilding process is further delayed.

        5) I am tired of seeing one of the game’s best pitchers compete every 5th day and get no run support to speak of. This will only get worse in 2015. I would hate to see Hamels in another uniform, but would also be happy for him and J-Roll if they can win another world series on another club, like Victorino did. I am not as happy for Pence because we really should have held on to him and started moving older veterans out instead. He seems like a great club house guy and brings much more passion to the game then anyone in our lineup.

        There are obviously risks in trading Hamels. The prospects we get back could deal with injuries, like Joseph, or they may not develop as planned. To me the reward of acquiring some players to build around is worth the risk. I think Ruben is trying to smarter about who he brings in. Hence the lower ceiling, but higher chance of reaching the bigs. I think he has done a good job this off season of getting at least fair returns for everyone he has traded. Ruben’s job depends on obtaining young assets for the future so I would be very surprised to see a deal for Hamels be a complete bust like the Lee deal.

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        1. Just wondering . . You aren’t as happy for Pence bc of something the Phillies front office did? Something Pence had nothing to do with, that doesn’t make much sense. If you said, “I’m not as happy for Pence since he was only here for 1.5 years meaning he wasn’t a huge part of the Phillies success from 2007-2011” but to not be happy for him bc of the front office is weird. Just saying.

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          1. Yeah I guys that didn’t come across exactly as I intended. I like Pence and think he’s a solid player. When we acquired him we needed a huge impact bat to boost the order. There was enormous pressure on him and he couldn’t quite live up to the expectations. I think his unusual style of play is really what drove him out of town.

            I am happy for him that his career has gone great since leaving Philly and he has been successful, healthy, and well paid. I guess what I really meant to say was I am happy for him, but with each world series he wins the knife is shoved a little deeper on what might have been. It is a shame we got nothing for him because he could be in the same boat Hamels is in now. A trade would make sense, but you could make the argument for keeping him until the next run.

            With all of that being said I am picking the Reds to win the world series at least once within the next 2 years. The giants won with Burrell and Pence(twice) and the red sox won with Victorino. Byrd could be the next former Phillies OF to win a ring after leaving town. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Werth get one in the next few seasons either.

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      3. First and foremost, I’d like to see Hamels traded to the Cards because it would be good for Hamels’ career. Until there is a management upheaval, I’m more interested in the future of players like Hamels and Rollins than I am in the Phillies’ future.

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      4. I personally love that the organization is being patient with Hamels. We know that because the team is not likely to compete for the postseason, Sandberg will be incredibly careful with him–skipping a start here and there for rest, if necessary, even. With Hamels still in his prime, he only gets more attractive to teams as time goes on right now. Teams that lose a pitcher midseason or jump into postseason competition somewhat unexpectedly are more likely to give up a big haul at the trade deadline, I think. We probably lost out by waiting to trade Jimmy, maybe Byrd, and obviously Howard because they were closer to the end of their careers, but I don’t think we’re losing anything by waiting with Cole right now. I’d like to see the offers at the deadline.

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  20. We would have to get Carlos Martinez back in that deal. Piscotty is a nice player and probably will be a fine major league player but he is not dynamic enough to headline a deal for Hamels.

    Watching MLB last night I can’t help but think Brian Kinney gets an erection every time Bill James appears on the show. He’s sitting with an HOF player in Biggio and gets more excited hearing Bill talk. I wanted hear Craig Biggio talk.

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    1. You would have to assume Piscotty is the number one guy in a Hamels’ trade….why? Because he is a Stanford guy like the current Phillies’ GM.
      The Stanford Baseball Secret Society…Michael Taylor, John Mayberry and now Steve Piscotty would be next in line.

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        2. Just go back to 2007 and see who drafted him?
          And just because he was traded a few years later doesn’t make it anymore less disserving.
          BTW….save your snarky pissing contests for roccom.
          In the meantime, keep my name off your keyboard.

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            1. OK now I am up to speed. I mentioned the Nationals Michael Taylor in another post so I thought Riggs was talking to me but now I see what is the point of contention.

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            1. Nothing rocco, my apologies if I offended you……Mr Riggs always seems to regularly contest your postings

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  22. Thank you for that hopeful bit of news. However, will continue to follow the Prospects and remain optimistic.

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  23. There won’t be a Hamels deal as long as Shields and Scherzer are unsigned so we really need to get these guys signed. Then, maybe, we can talk about possible deals. I’m not particularly optimistic any longer that he’ll get dealt before the trade deadline but I guess you never know. I suppose who gets the two guys above could impact what other teams need to do to keep up with them. It was interesting to hear that JRoll and Cole talked about the fun of possibly playing together in LA. There’s no chance of Pedersen getting traded now though, he’s going to be their opening day CF and Seager will likely be their opening day 2017 SS. Urias is not enough to make a deal happen. The Padres’ guys don’t thrill me. The Red Sox have the assets to do it but have already turned down the Phils request of Mookie and Swihart. Cards could with the Martinez and Piscotty but I don’t see the Cards giving up that much. Nope, I think we may have to wait six months.

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  24. Wouldn’t it be nice to add three top 100 guys to our list of prospects? If it takes adding 15 mil with hamels to get a top notch package I say do it

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    1. Question here – I suspect I know the answer, but who knows, maybe I;m wrong – but has ANY player EVER been traded for 3 top 100 prospects? I believe the answer is no (there have been a few for two); if so, why do we expect that Hamels will be the first? Many, many players who are better and/or have a more favorable contract have been traded for less.

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      1. Quick sample:
        Halladay – #25 Drabek #29 Taylor #81 d’Arnaud
        Lee – #52 Carrasco #66 Marson #69 Donald (after season Knapp was rated #64)
        Grienke – #12 Escobar #69 Odorizzi #100 Jeffress

        A long list for 2 very high ranked Top 100 and then other pieces (for example Brett Anderson, CarGo, and other pieces include Chris Carter for Dan Haren)

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      2. The famous Colon trade was essentially that on steroids, although it took another year for Sizemore to be recognized as a top 100 (and, at that point, he was a top 10) – Lee (#30,2003), Phillips (#7, 2003), Sizemore (#9, 2004).

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    1. sam soap…better read MLBTR today….Moncada seems to headed for Yankees or Sox…..but has to be done prior to June 15th, after that date Moncada will have to settle for $300K if he wants to go to either the Yankees or Sox..they have been bad boys and were penalized.
      My guess Cashman and Cherington are rushing some poor US govt bureaucrat to get his clearance paperwork thru so they can start the bid to sign him.

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  26. Fangraphs has projected the 2015 Phillies for 69 wins and last place in the NL East….and last place in MLB.
    Looks like the Phillies get to pick number one in the 2016 draft.
    I sure hope Scott Boras has retired by then.

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  27. Does anyone understand what Billy Beane is doing? He has lost me since July’s trading deadline. Anyway, Red Sox turned down Swihart and Betts. Isn’t Swihart as centerpiece of trade without Betts, say Barnes and Cecchini with Swihart for example, a good return for Cole? Isn’t their 2d rated catcher a very highly rated C as well? I think his name is Vazquez. Is he, Barnes and Owens a good return? I still see Boston as the best match, only because Padres and Cards want $ back, and I don’t think RAJ does that to move Hamels. I don’t see a match with Dodgers since Seager and Pederson are not available.

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    2. Anonymous. I have read about swihart, and Owens. Scout aren’t so high on owens, they say don’t know how his slow curve and 90 mph fast ball play in majors, and the catcher might not hit. so I really am stump why , for a top pitcher you want to take a back end pitcher and a possible no hit catcher, if that is all cole is worth, better to keep him.

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      1. rocco….according to MLB Owens is rated 60-FB, 60-CU and 55-CB, which is pretty decent and some consider ‘plus’.
        Their write-up:
        ———–“Owens throws his fastball in the low 90s, and it plays up, thanks to his deceptive delivery and long arms. Owens’ changeup gives him a second plus pitch, and his slow curveball flashes the potential to be a third above-average offering, though it remains inconsistent”.

        ……sounds like he could be a pretty decent #2/3 in any rotation.
        I wonder how DMAR’s KWHIP projects?

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        1. Pls romus that dmar chart confuses me . I am lost on that. but I still want a potential star back for hamels. ,Unless this is a salary dump. You give up a star for a defense catcher and a kid who is most likely a 3-4. not what I would want. He is more valuable to us than owens and the catcher. I think right now, and maybe its me, I just put more value on hamels, then most on here. Just settling for a couple of prospects who don’t project to be all-stars, isn’t a fair return . but that’s just my opinion.

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          1. rocco…..it would pain me to see Hamels go and pitch in another uni, but the truth of the matter, this team is not going to seriously contend for at least 3/4 years and Hamels’s age at that point works against him. And when you look at WS winners recently, rarely do any of the winning team’s aces approach their mid-thirties.
            Finally, Tom MacCarthy’s interview, you can catch it on on Crashburn Alley, alluded to the fact, when all is said and done, Hamels would like to be on a winner.

            I say give him that opportunity to get to the playoffs and WS again.

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            1. I understand what your saying. I don’t think we should let him go, cause he is playing on this bad team. Unless we get good value. He signed to play here and has a world series win. a lot of great players never win a title, so if he stays and pitches for a bad team so be it. I just don’t want to see him go to another team for undervalued prospects. And the fact he would like to be on a winner, what player wouldn’t? That is no excuse to trade him for lesser prospects.

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      2. Owens is not a ‘back end’ pitcher. Swihart and Owens are Boston’s #1 and #2 prospects and Boston has a very strong farm.

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    3. Swihart, Owens or Rodriguez, and Cecchini or Margot or Devers would be quite a good return for Hamels. That will give you two top 100 in baseball plus another from the lower half of Boston’s top 10.

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      1. Apparently Charlie Manual likes Cecchini and his hit tool. My guess he would be a part of any Hamels/Sox dealings.

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  28. At , least he isn’t sitting on his hands watchinhg phillies as of right now aren’t in on no one at least put your in on a Cuban or Korean . RAJ is now hoping the other teams in baseball can help him get out of mess he put himself in.

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    1. That’s the one thing not mentioned, particularly by Matt. Everyone can see that they’re making good moves, and haven’t crippled themselves any further the last 2 offseasons. However, we are stuck having to make these because of the horrible decisions leading us to this situation. No vision, no plan. And now they are just reacting to a HORRENDOUS team and an angry fan base.

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  29. Does anyone think Freddy Galvis can hold up through 162 game season?he’s had a few injuries clavicle, broken finger, knee .foot, mrsa that’s all I can think off.who is the backup ss this season ?

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  30. What do you make out of the fact that Phillies send 4 players to the Rookie Development Program, MAG, Hector Nerris, Aaron Nola and Aaron Altherr.

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  31. In an interview with Mark Emery, MLB.com this week, Ben Lively had this say about his off-season prep:
    How are you preparing now in the offseason to make that jump to the big leagues? ….Lively: “I’ve mostly been working on my legs this offseason, getting more endurance in my legs, getting them stronger. I feel like that’s the only thing I really need to work on. I’ve got a good upper body, arm strength and everything like that. Once I get my legs mixed in with it, I’ll probably add some more velocity. Because I was a lot stronger in college, and I threw a little bit harder. So I’ll build my legs back up, and hopefully, I’ll be throwing a little bit harder this year, which will get me moving faster [through the system].”

    …perhaps his velo will tick up some.

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  32. I have been to clinics on pitching.. the legs are so important. Nolan ryan always worked on his legs. I believe he can increase his velocity with stronger drive off his lower body, mainly his legs.

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