Reader Top 30 #7

Position #6 goes to Jesse Biddle.  Once again, the victory is by plurality (44%) not a majority .  Twenty-three players received votes with 7 players other than Biddle (143 votes) receiving double-digit votes.

Willians Astudillo, Manuel Chavez, Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Leibrandt, and Jose Pujols have been added to poll #7.

69 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #7

  1. So far the top 6 have pretty much gone the way I expected. Maybe flip Biddle and Efflin but I could’ve went either way there.
    Now I’m prob gonna go against the grain and go Cozens. I seem to be higher on him than most but at least he has produced unlike a lot of the other guys left. I know he has flaws like his K rate and possibly his position but he seems to have good power with sneaky speed mixed in. Not saying he’s fast but must be a decent runner to get 20 plus steals last yr.

  2. Still have no idea why Biddle is consensus Top 6. Okay, I know why–drafted high, good curve ball–but between injuries, control issues and lack of success, I’d have to put his odds of ever even reaching the show at 7:1 against; and, then, even a 14% chance might be too generous. Sure, if everything breaks perfectly, he might be a low-end #2 starter; he does have a nice celling. But what are the odds of that happening? Pretty low, in my opinion.

    On the positive side, if Imhof is our 7th highest rated prospect, I guess we have a pretty deep system =)

    1. I think you answered your own question by saying Biddle could be a low end 2 if things break right. Outside of Nola, there’s prob not another pitcher with that upside at this point.

    2. Imhof seems to be a #4 or 5 starter if he makes it. Do you like him because you think he has a great chance of accomplishing that or because you think he’s going to be more than that?

      1. Because he has an excellent chance of actually making it to the big leagues.

        I know a lot of people on this board love potential. If a thousand things break right, Biddle can be a low-end #2. If Tocci develops power, he can be a…etc.

        Imhof may not have the highest of ceilings, but I think his floor is pretty low, too. He seems the most likely of anyone (for whom ee can still be vote) to make it to the show.

        Someone who becomes a #4 starter is a better prospect than someone who had greater potential but never will realize it. Bird in hand.

          1. I’m cool on biddle but 1000 things don’t need to break right, just one, he needs to miraculously develop control. I do however agree with the gist of the argument, which is that he was ranked too high in our poll but want to preface that with the following:

            Discounting for injury, the odds his command improves enough to reach the following levels:

            >=#2: 1 in 30
            >=#3: 3 in 30
            >=#4: 10 in 30
            >=#5: 15 in 30
            Relief: 25 in 30
            AAAA Pitcher: 29 in 30

            So, what do we have here? We have a pitcher who has a 50% chance of never being more then a reliever. And that’s why he’s ranked right around 10 for me. I do appreciate the upside, while I tried to rationalize his probabilities of achievement I also have a gut feeling that he lacks the mental fortitude/stability to improve which is part of the reason I discount him the way I do.

        1. I was just going to let this pass since I covered it in earlier posts, but since you’re getting the thumbs …

          Last year, the Top 30 started after the 1st and ran into ST.
          I live in Clearwater and attend/cover ST.
          I also spend days at the Complex during Phantasy week.
          And, I had a vacation scheduled in the Caribbean for a week in January.

          For these reasons, I wanted to start earlier. Now, due to several deaths in our family, my wife and I don’t feel like going on vacation and have postponed the cruise. So, the Top 30 will probably finish well before ST and make you and others wonder why I started it so early. Hope this satisfies everyone’s curiosity.

    1. I think Jim said he wanted to start it earlier this year because last year it stretched into the start of Spring Training.

  3. Mecias for me. He could be a low end #2 if everything goes right and has a reasonable chance of being a #3. There’s risk with him but that’s true of everybody from this point on. Big breakout potential.

    1. He probably has the highest ceiling of any pitcher left on the board, so I can see why. And unlike some super projectable guys, like McWilliams, he’s shown some feel for his pitches on the mound.

        1. While this may be true, I just can’t get over having a black hole at catcher. I don’t expect 1B production out of my C, but for a contending team, I do expect a solid .270 BA with 9-10% BB rate (thus producing a very attractive OBP from the position.)

    1. Grullon is possibly hurt by the fact that his biggest backer has his own site now. Personally I think some over rate Grullon because of his arm and his age. You have to say he is potentially a good defensive catcher because so far he has been absolutely atrocious! 12 errors and 17 PB! If defense is all it takes for a catcher why isn’t Logan Moore one of our top prospects. Moore has just as good a CS%, is better defensively and by all accounts handles pitchers well.

      1. It’s not just Winkelman who likes Grullon. Scouts rave about the defense and the arm and that means a lot more to me than the number of errors he recorded in rookie ball. (Also, let’s keep in mind that the quality of pitchers/infielders effect both passed balls and CS numbers). Although his hitting doesn’t look great so far, he hung well enough that he didn’t embarass himself in his stint at Lakewood. I personally voted for Mecias again, but I would have no problem ranking Grullon right around here.

        1. What are the scouts raving about with his defense if they’re not looking at errors, passed balls, and CS%? Is he a really good receiver? Is he throwing perfect lasers down to second with a quick pop time, but the pitcher motions are so long and predictable that runners get enormous jumps?

  4. I’ve been working on my top 30 to send to Jim for quite a while. I think this is the strangest year for the poll. The top 4 or 5 are pretty strong. You can pick the order but most everyone has the same top 4 or 5. But the next slots are very difficult. Anyone on this site could make a case for 15 or 20 guys in the next slot. You can make both the positive and the negative argument for any of those 20. You can say this guy or that guy has huge potential but his chances of achieving that potential in very low. I got all the way to 17 when I looked at who was left and I found Seve Gonzalez. He’s one of my favorite guys because of age and proximity. He had a hiccup or two this year but he still had some good outings. Jim just added Brandon Liebrandt to the list. Does anyone else know that he has the best K to BB ratio of anyone in the Phils minor leagues and his WHIP is near the best too? He has the pedigree. But it might all be a head fake. Just like the 20 or so guys who can go into the next 4 or 5 slots. And I’ll leave you with Herrera. We’ve had this discussion before but it can be mentioned again. If he had come up through our organization and he was doing what he’s been doing, he’d probably be top 5. But he’s a rule 5 guy who could be offered back for $25K. How would you like to say that your #5 prospect was sold for $25K?

    Now back to slotting the next 13 or so guys.

      1. You must be Liebrandt’s mother. He is nothing more than an organizational filler. Same with Imhoff. They will both be 30 year old AA players seven years from now with no upside now or then.

        1. That could have been the same assessment for David Buchanan two years ago, or Kyle Kendrick in 2006. You just never know.

  5. I have to go O. Herrera before Dugan. While I doubt Herrera is much more than another C. Hernandez, the Phillies seem to think he can jump from AA to a Major League CF. Dugan is a corner outfielder who didn’t show power in Reading.

    1. I sure hope Herrera can be more then Cesar Hernandez. He is physically stronger and bigger and that is a plus in his favor. And from reports to date, I hope he makes the team and plays in CF.

      1. But that’s a problem. If you have to choose between contact or power as a corner OF, then you are choosing between two approaches to being a 4th OF.

        I don’t understand Dugan ranking this high. I saw him at Reading the past two seasons and he really didn’t stand out as a guy who will be a starting MLB corner OF. Looking back at the stats confirms that impression. Looking at the stats shows one other argument: Dugan and Perkins both played at Reading last year at age 23. Perkins was better — a lot better, as in about 100 OPS points better. When it came promotion time, the Phillies promoted Perkins, rather than Dugan, to Allentown. Now, Perkins did not hit at all well after the promotion, but based on the time they shared at Reading seems a comparable or better prospect than Dugan. I think they’re both 4th/5th OF material.

        1. Dugan was on the DL and had only played 14 games last year when Perkins was promoted. So I don’t think you can really say the Phillies chose to promote Perkins over Dugan.

  6. Jonathan Papelbon if not traded and no one wants him??????? Lets see if this guy is a true Pitcher. Let him be a starting Pitcher this year . He would be a better #3 to earn the money he gets. We have a better bullpen without him.

  7. I went Imhof over Dugan, based on a belief that he makes the rotation one day vs. a belief that Dugan is a 5th OF. I hope that Dugan becomes more than that, but I just don’t have him as a Starter on a good team at this time. On potential/ceiling, Mecias is a very good pick as well and I also like the upside of Knapp, but Imhof closer to the Big Leagues.

  8. Went with Kelly Dugan as he will be at AAA and is more advanced than the other prospects and plays a premium position. Dugan with a good AAA season could be up with the Phillies this year. I hope the young man does well as the Phillies have had their share of bad luck in prior years.

      1. Allentown1, are we not being picky? Any positional player is important especially younger ones with potential who can help the big club.

        1. I didn’t say corner OF wasn’t important. You were giving Dugan extra points for playing a premium defensive position and he doesn’t. His offensive stats have to stand in comparison with other players at the non-premium positions of LF, RF, and 1B. More bat is demanded at those positions.

  9. “MLB.com’s scouting report on Windle has him developing into a possible top of the rotation arm if he improves his command and changeup. Otherwise, he could end up as an effective closer. He has a nice arsenal of picthes to choose from, including a nasty slider.”

    He is a better prospect than Biddle and should have already been selected in our list.

    http://www.philliedelphia.com/2014/12/phillies-to-acquire-zach-eflin-and-tom-windle-in-rollins-trade.html

    1. I think the problem with rating Windle is that very few people on our site have seen him pitch but he should rank within the top ten. I hope that the MLB report is accurate but remember these prospects rankings are not perfect.

    2. From what I’ve read, for Windle to reach his ceiling of a mid-rotation starter he would need to improve the consistency of his slider, his changeup, his command and maybe smooth out his mechanics. In other words, a lot needs to happen which is why some people see him as a reliever. I have him just barely outside the top 10.

        1. Biddle needs to stay healthy, which will allow him to not only stay on the field, but should also allow him to keep his mechanics in order. And he needs to work on his command. Basically if Biddle can stay healthy I think he has a better chance of remaining a SP than Windle.

  10. For the 3rd straight time its Cozens…..if he puts it all together he could be a future star…….can’t say that about anyone else besides JPC.

  11. It’s really interesting what the Phillies have been doing since last year, stocking up on starting pitchers who seem to have low-ish ceilings but good command. It looks like Reading’s rotation next season will be Nola, Biddle, Eflin, Windle and Lively. Three of those 5 guys could be in the major league rotation by 2016. Which 3, I’m not sure, but it’s very conceivable. Put Hamels at the top of that rotation, slot Crawford and Franco on the left side of the infield, add a third outfielder via trade (cross your fingers that Lee gets healthy), swap out Ogando for Papelbon in the bullpen (with Giles taking over the closing role) … Maybe hope you catch lighting in a bottle with Hererra, move him over to 2b to take over for Utley who moves to first when Howard is finally traded or released. … Ok that’s still a pretty bad team! But a young bad team!

    1. Though I am sometimes off on where comments post, this is meant to follow ACA’s observation on the Phils stocking up on pitchers…. there is an article on the Phillies Website about Wandy Rodriquez being signed to a minor-league contract.

  12. Where would Lively fit in the Top 30? I have to think close to Eflin, so right around here? Can we add him to the List?

  13. I swear Kelly Dugan must have 70 family members voting in this poll. In what universe is a guy who has played in the minors for six (6) years without getting to AAA, a top prospect?

    1. I’m not surprised. He’s set to open in AAA and he’s hit everywhere he’s been. I don’t think being voted the 7th best prospect in a middle of the road system means he’s being called a “top” prospect.

        1. But it’s not like he’s limited like Susdorf was. Most scouting reports indicate that his power is good enough for about 20 homers in a season. He showed good power in 2013; not so much in 2014 while he was changing his swing.

    2. How about the fact that Dugan has talent but has suffered some injuries which slowed his advancement through the minors? The Phillies are rebuilding so everyone should get a chance to prove themselves worthy of going to the big club or not deserving.

    3. Hi I’m really Adam Sandler and his dad asked me to vote for him or I won’t be in his next movie(sarcasm).

  14. Looks like Dugan will get #7. I like Dugan. I like Dugan a lot. But I have Cozens and Lively ahead of him.

    1. Crawford
    2. Franco
    3. Nola
    4. Quinn
    5. Eflin
    6. Cozens
    7. Lively

    #8 candidates: Imhof, Biddle, Dugan

  15. I agree that its tough at this point. There are three groups.

    1) Go with the new prospects just acquired i.e. Windle or Lively, even though I have not seen them and going off other’s reports.

    2) Go with very young unproven talent in our system like Guillon, Brown, and Imhoff

    3) Or hope inconsistent guys like Dugan actually surprise us.

    I guess because its such a crap shoot at this point I am going with guys who others have seen and think are higher rated than those in our system from last year, since our system is far from stellar.

    Tough though without seeing or knowing much about them.

  16. 01. Crawford
    02. Nola
    03. Franco
    04. Quinn
    05. Eflin
    06. Biddle
    07. Grullon
    08. Lively
    09. Windell
    10. Imhoff

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