Top 30 Stock Watch (1-20)

After exploring the back of the Top 30, it is time to look at how the stock is trending for the Top 20 prospects in the system.  This is not a reranking, and it does take into account any injuries that we present at the time of the original ranking.  The Top 30 list can be found here.

20. Adam Morgan (LHP) – Morgan has not yet started his rehab, and shouldn’t be throwing for a bit longer. Stock: Static

19. Severino Gonzalez (RHP) – Severino has not been good this year, but he has not been as bad as his ERA looks.  Overall, Severino is not missing bats this year and the fastball is about where it was last year.   Overall Severino is still on pace to be a back of the rotation starter or middle reliever.  Stock: Slightly down

18. Cesar Hernandez (2B/SS/3B) – The Phillies have looked to give Hernandez positional flexibility and he has been able to fake the left side of the infield enough to not be terrible, but the arm is still a liability.  He still looks like a limited utility player going forward.  Stock: Graduated to his major league role

17. Jose Pujols (OF) – Pujols has only played in XST to this point.  He has shown some good things and still some holes to his game.  It will be big if he can get to Williamsport this year.  Stock: On hold

16. Zach Green (3B) – Green was off to a slow start in Lakewood before injuries have held him out.  The prolonged hip injury is a bit concerning as was his lack of power, but there is too much unknown to knock him at this point.  Stock: In stasis

15. Luis Encarnacion (1B/3B) – Encarnacion has had positive reviews as a 16 year old playing stateside.  It is unknown as to whether he drops back to the DSL or stays in the GCL.  Either way Encarnacion is way off from reaching his ceiling and his stock has likely flattened until he shown any thing.  Stock: Check back in 4 months

14. Ken Giles (RHP) – Giles dominated Reading and he been doing well in Lehigh Valley with decreased results.  The stuff is good, but the slider and control need continued growth.  He should be in Philly in a month or so, and if he can give the team 2 innings at a time that is a big value.  Stock: Way Up

13. Andrew Knapp (C) – Knapp has yet to start catching after his offseason Tommy John surgery.  He has been struggling as the Threshers primary DH with a high strikeout rate and not a lot of power.  I am willing to give him somewhat of a pass for the injury, but you have to knock him a little as a highly picked college player. Stock: Slightly down

12. Dylan Cozens (OF) – Cozens is showing power, with a reasonable strikeout rate, but the walk rate is way down and the contact isn’t great.  Cozens has started to heat up in May so he is trending up, but he needs to continue to mash and have a good OBP to have value at the highest level.  He appears to be really affected by the home park with a .141/.208/.268 line at home and a .309/.336/.537 line on the road.  Stock: Some up, some down

11. Yoel Mecias (LHP) – Mecias is still coming back from Tommy John surgery last July.  Should be an update on his status soon.  Stock: On Hold

10. Cord Sandberg (OF) – Sandberg has as much upside as anyone in the system, the real key is the bat and whether he can make enough contact to tap into into the power.  He has shown more feel for the game than expected this spring, but he is not crushing the ball yet.  Expect a non-linear developmental path here.  Stock: We’ll see in Williamsport

9. Ethan Martin (RHP) – Martin’s stock took a hit this spring with an arm injury.  He is putting up good numbers in AAA right now but the stuff is not quite as electric right now.  He takes a hit as a reliever with injury concerns, but he is right at major league contribution.  Stock: Slight slip

8. Deivi Grullon (C) – The surface stats aren’t eye popping, but as an 18 year old catcher with potentially special defense, the fact that Grullon is holding his own in Lakewood is very impressive.  Stock: Way up

7. Roman Quinn (SS) – Quinn returned from his injury earlier than expected with his speed still intact.  The bat isn’t there yet as he still gets back into a groove, but the defense has been fine so far.  The fact that he is back playing is the most positive development we could hope for right now.  Stock: Up

6. Aaron Altherr (CF) – It has been a rough start for Altherr as he is coming off a wrist injury.  The power is down, the walk rate is down, and he is hitting a lot more balls on the ground then in the air.  Depending on how the wrist strengthens over the season, this could be a down year for Altherr.  Stock: Injury related slip

5. Kelly Dugan (OF) – Due to injuries Dugna has only played 14 games.  He has looked good in those games, but he needs to prove he can stay on the field in order to force his way into a murky outfield situation.  Stock: Slightly down

4. Carlos Tocci (CF) – It continues to be a slow climb for Carlos Tocci, as his numbers are still very pedestrian.  His walk rate and strikeout rate have normalized in May, but are still not good for the level.  Tocci has shown the ability to drive the ball to the gaps this year which is a good start to him developing enough strength to play everyday.  Still only 18 years old, Tocci is already a great defender in center field.  Stock: Showing some signs

3. J.P. Crawford (SS) – Crawford is a stud, there are still holes to his game and things to improve on.  But those are merely about high in the sky the ceiling really can go.  Stock: Rocketing up with no intention of stopping

2. Jesse Biddle (LHP) – It has been another up and down year with Biddle, complete with strange injuries.  He may not be shooting up to a high ceiling like some wanted, but he is staying on the same path he was to start the year.  Stock: Steady for the course

1. Maikel Franco (1B/3B) – It has been a strange year for Franco.  The defense is improved as he appears to have gotten in better shape, there are still questions on the range and throwing motion, but overall he has looked good at the hot corner.  At the plate there are plenty of adjustments going on at once.  He is working to piece together an approach that has yet to have any cohesion.  In May he has a 12-13 BB-K ratio, but is still pulling everything on the ground to 3B and SS.  Franco looks like he will need the entire year at AAA, but at 21, that is more than fine as he works through a long list of improvements.  Stock: It may have slipped some but it is better in the long run

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

23 thoughts on “Top 30 Stock Watch (1-20)

  1. Interesting take on Franco. I was never particularly concerned about his defense and thought some of the negitive reports were over-rated. So for me, he’s actually stock slightly down on the basis that he’s struggling comparitively at AAA. It sort of validates some of the hitting concerns on him from last year which I previously took with a grain of salt.

    As to Crawford… obviously we’re in agreement here, and I think he’s a true “Blue Chip” prospect. The open question I have for you is… what do you really think his ceiling is at this point? Projected peak WAR? Projected Career WAR? Average WAR during prime?

    My gut feelings are as follows:

    Best Season WAR – 6.5
    Average WAR during prime: – 5
    Career WAR: 46

    Again, this is ceiling, not current projected.

    1. Just to give everyone a comparison, Chase Utley is currently a career 61 WAR player, with his prime averaging 8, and his peak at 9.

      Of note of course is that Utley is on pace for a 7.5 WAR this year, an outstanding performance thus far.

    2. That almost perfectly describes Jimmy Rollins’ career, which sounds about right.

    3. Yes, basically a more consistent version of Jose Reyes with a better eye and less power. Sounds like a good guess, but I think the ceiling might be a bit higher if he develops power.

    4. without the personality and leadership traits, which could later, I see Crawford’s potential as Jeter like. A 300 hitter with 10 – 15 homerun power with a good glove and good legs. That would be pretty darn good.

  2. I agree with almost all of what you say in this evaluation, but it seems to me that Zach Green’s stock has to be down from what it was going into this season. Both initial bad performance and injury-caused pause in development have to lower his stock.

    1. I disagree. Green’s stock should stay static until we see what he does after he returns. I’m sure Green’s slow start and lack of power had much to do with the fact that he was dealing with a hip injury, so obviously his power would be down.

    2. I kind of agree with Nick….static for Green….66PAs is such a sss and how much of that sss was the hip injury a prime factor! For all we know, he could have tweeked the hip in March and progressively got worse.

    1. At some point fairly soon but I don’t get the sense that his arm is all the way back yet. I haven’t seen any gun numbers but I’m guessing if he was back at 95 that we would have heard something.

  3. Looking at the top 30 gives me plenty of optimism for the hitters. A ton of upside and some already showing it. Outside of Biddle , there’s nobody who projects as a definate starter in the bigs. Here’s hoping for Viza and Anderson to keep developing and Watson and Morgan getting healthy.

  4. Those home vs. road splits for Cozens are one of the most encouraging things we’ve seen on him. We all know that the Lakewood park is horrible for hitters, but it’s great to see he’s taking out his frustrations on opposing pitchers when he goes on the road.

    1. Yeah that’s interesting and it prompted me to check out Hiciano’s home/road splits. His OPS split is .587 / .999 respectively.

      1. Is it Lakewood’s outfield dimensions or is it the make up of the air structure from the relatively close proximity to the ocean?

  5. The field is about 5 miles as the crow flies to the beach but there is the bay and some brackish rivers closer. The summertime afternoon winds tend to blow in from the ocean out of the southeast. I’m not sure of the field positioning but it seems like centerfield is about due north. The fence is about 9′ high with 400 to center and about 335 down the lines, if I remember correctly.
    Sheesh, I was there only about 2 weeks ago, but it was a good party up in the Champions club all game long. So don’t hold me to anything.

    1. I may be wrong….but I think all baseball fields are positioned the same as to compass directional settings.
      For example, with late afternoon games, the sun setting casts shadows over the pitcher’s mound in about the same way in all fields.
      Not sure.

    1. Based on what? He had a very good year last year and has largely been injured this year. I’d still have him in the top 20 and he’s definitely still a prospect.

  6. I second the Grullon comment. As much as I like Crawford & am impressed with his season, one could argue that Grullon has made the biggest upward move of any Phillies’ prospect this season.

    1. Grullon is a beast!! He is slowly starting to hit and i have a feeling he will bat atleast a .300 avg by seasons end. I was at the game last night and saw grullons double he made great contact on that!

Comments are closed.