Box Score Recap – 5/29/2014

Maikel Franco was 2-4 with a 2B and a 3B, his first XBHs since May 19 (8 games). Tyson Gillies threw out Brett Wallace at the plate to end the game, saving the save for Ken Giles, who gave up 2R on 2H, 2BB, 1WP and 0K in his most tumultuous inning of his short stint in AAA. Cesar Jimenez hasn’t allowed a run all month for the Pigs. He’d seem to be the next lefty up to the bigs.

Cameron Perkins left the Reading game after being hit in the arm with a batted ball while leading off third. He tried to tough it out, apparently, but was removed an inning later. Jeb Stefan pitched well allowing one run on just two hits and two walks in six innings , but his offense couldn’t score, managing just two hits and one walk in support. Ramon Oviedo entered the game with one out in the seventh and two men on base, recorded three total outs and walked five men, and did not allow a run, thanks to a DP in the seventh and a caught stealing in the eighth. Amazing.

Willians Astudillo has himself a 12 game hitting streak. Also worth noting – he’s been behind the plate nine times in the last 18 days. And Jesus Alastre kept his on-base streak alive by virtue of getting plunked in the eighth inning. Well done.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB. http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20140529

5-29-14

42 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 5/29/2014

  1. That’s 3 or 4 in a row 0 Fors I believe for Pullin. Hopefully he gets it going again and this is just a minor slump.

      1. We all know you think you’re very funny.

        I suggest you stick with a particular handle so we can all acknowledge your greatness.

  2. Grullon with a double and a run, seems like as good a time as any to ask: if we were to re-rank, where would he go today? Matt was aggressive in ranking him at #8 preseason and says his stock is “way up.” He’s younger than Tocci and hitting better (albeit in quite a bit fewer plate appearances), while playing similarly refined defense at a more important position. For me, a healthy Quinn is an easy vote for our #4 prospect, but I’m guessing Matt probably is ready to push him up to around #5, given the injuries/struggles of Dugan and Altherr. What does everyone else think? Ready to call him a Top 5 prospect?

    1. I think I would have Tocci 4 Grullon 5 Quinn 6 Dugan 7. Quinn will need to get on base to use his speed, and he hasn’t shown that much to say he’ll definitely get there.

      1. Come on, Quinn hasn’t played in a year, he’s passing the speed test – taking off at every opportunity. I think he gets moved to CF soon.

        1. Quinn needs to start doing something, that’s for sure. He’s clearly been passed by Crawford, and as soon as the FO decides to move Crawford to High-A, Quinn will find himself in CF.

          1. Quinn has by the limited reports I’ve seen (and through box scores) appeared to have begun to put it together at SS. One error in 26 chances, according to B-R. There’s no way the org ignores this progress and moves him to a less valuable position solely because they have another SS who is at least two years away from contributing to the big league team.

            Also, what exactly does Quinn “need” to do right now? He fought his way back from a difficult injury far ahead of schedule. He’s been back less than two weeks. Give the dude a break.

            1. I agree that middle infield is valuable so I think they’ll eventually move him to 2B before CF.

      2. I’m still not a big Tocci fan (sure, he’ll be a great fielder, but I still don’t buy into the hit tool and won’t until I see he gets much stronger), so I have them as follows:

        1. Crawford (not even close)
        2. Franco (has done what I’d expect he’d do – should take off pretty soon).
        3. Biddle (just needs consistency – but will he ever get it? Probably, but no guarantee)
        4. Grullon
        5. Quinn
        6. Giles (profiles as a closer, which is pretty valuable)
        7. Tocci (bending to peer pressure)
        8. Dugan
        9. Sandberg (love the reports I’m hearing)
        10. Martin
        11. Mecias
        12. Hiciano (I think he’s the real deal – could be in the top ten soon if he continues to rake)
        13. Cozens (too much raw power to ignore)
        14. Pullin
        15. Encarnacion
        16. Pujols
        17. Rupp (needs at bats – unless he’s hurting, should be the DH when he isn’t catching – still believe he could be a huge surprise going forward – power is impressive, plays defense, draws walks – if he develops a 40 hit tool, with the other skills, he could be pretty decent a major league starter – likely prime acquisition target for low-budget SABR-advanced team such as Oakland or Houston)
        18. Joseph (see Rupp)
        19. Green

        Where are the pitchers? On the DL or just not very good. Ugly, ugly, ugly

        1. I’m still a bit of a Perkins skeptic, but don’t you think he has at least put himself in the top 20? Dugan is still a better prospect, but if Dugan is 8, I would think Perkins is no worse than 15 (roughly).

          1. The problem with Perkins is that without any power he just doesn’t project as a starter at a corner position. I think he can become a major leaguer with his hit tool but it will as a Greg Dobbs type and not as a starter.

            1. Perkins definitely has gap power and he hits very well but we have to hope that he learns to elevate the ball a little bit more if we want to hope that he can be a starter in the majors.

          2. Yeah, I forgot about Perkins – I’d probably have him in between Rupp and Joseph – maybe a little higher.

          1. No – I think he’s the latest Phillies prospect mirage. Looks great in a uniform and tracking down a fly ball. At the plate, not so much.

    2. Yeah, prettmuch. IUn fact, I think it is an easy call. I could even make an argument for him over Quinn. May fall to 6 after the draft.

      1. The way I see it, Quinn has one 70 grade offensive tool (speed) while Grullon has none, and it seems like people think he could become a good hitter. Plays a premium defensive position, although with considerably less polish than Grullon plays his. So a marginal edge to Grullon on defense and a larger edge to Quinn at the plate. But I could easily change my mind by the end of the season, or even sooner. Grullon is impressive.

            1. Well, so at the risk of overthinking this, I’m not sure that having an 70-80 arm at catcher is as big of an asset as being a 70-80 runner. First of all, a 70-80 runner can use his tool on both offense and defense, and as Larry points out, footspeed also results in more hits and (I would presume) bases reached via an error. We’ve all seen that: the shortstop knows he has to hurry, rushes the throw, etc.

              By contrast, an 80 arm at catcher is great, but it’s like a pistol the gunfighter keeps in his holster–it value is primarily as a psychological deterrent. If runners know about the arm and they don’t run on you. If you have a terrible arm, by contrast, hitters run on you all the time, and we can all agree that that’s bad. But if you have an arm that is neither elite nor subpar, baserunners may be tempted, and as a result you as a catcher will end up creating more outs. An out is more valuable to the defense than one base is to the offense. So it seems like the optimal situation for a catcher would be to be just mediocre enough to entice the opposition into a gamble where the risk outweighs the reward.

              So, as an illustration: according to the chart below, Yadier Molina has thrown out nearly 50 percent of the 27 guys who have run on him this year. Meanwhile, Alex Avila has a less impresssive .432 percentage, but has thrown out 6 more guys in the aggregate, meaning he has created 50 percent more outs than Molina with his arm. As a result, it appears, Avila has a DWAR of 1 while Molina has a DWAR of .6, nearly a 40 percent differential.

              http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherCaughtStealingPct/order/true

              QED: Alex Avila, the best defensive catcher in baseball.

            2. I think it is definitely on the right path. The one place where advanced metrics break is catchers. I completely understand the value you describe. But I don’t know if there is any hidden value for a pitcher know that with Molina behind home plate he doesn’t have to worry about the runner, all he has to do it pitch. Now that value is obviously being caught somewhere (likely pitcher stats), but is that a factor here. I find the discussions around catcher defense rivetting.

              Rereading, I think your point about being mediocre enough to generate outs makes sense in a small sample size, over the aggregate teams will adjust and you will see them run less until they start to have good success again.

            3. To tell the truth, my point was grounded far more in my desire to distract myself from a deadline than anything else. I am a Grade 80 procrastinator.

        1. Yeah, I see the argument. Its close anyway you look at it. I’d add in for Grullon that catcher is more of a premium position than SS, though not by a huge amount.

          I’d also break the “plate” factor down as follows, even though it probably doesn’t effect the conclusion much. As a hitter, I’m not sure whether Quinn has much if any edge (except maybe as an indirect result of the speed – more IF hits). But he does have a big edge as a base runner. Quinn is good enough there that that edge alone could be worth half a win or more per season.

        2. Thought Quinn had 80 speed? At least thats what I’ve seen. However i admit i haven’t seen a tools breakdown on him in a while

    1. Crawford is number 19 on his top 25. The only other guys from last years draft ranked ahead of him were Bryant, Gray, Harvey and Shipley.

      1. Hm, interesting that only a year after the draft the guys taken at 15, 16 and 22 are ahead of most players picked in front of them.

  3. What is Chris Bootcheek’s history? With two good AAA starts, he’s already jumped to the top of the list of 6th starters.

  4. Mystified by the Tocci love. I figure I have about two more years of Matt raving about a guy that’s hitting .211 in AA before Matt moves into his next project that doesn’t pan out. Tocci stinks. Sorry guys

    1. Just two more years? Sorry, but I figure Tocci will have to be old enough to legally buy a beer before we declare him a lost cause.

      1. Yep two more years of .211 batting averages should do it. Hopefully at that point everyone else will see what I see now.

        1. That’s pretty brutal, but having seen Tocci in person, I have serious doubts that he’ll ever develop the strength to be a legitimate big league player. I’m giving in to peer pressure in my rankings, but I’m a skeptic on him.

          1. catch…and lets not forget him warming up between innings at one game last year, and clowing around and almost plunking the old lady seated between first base and the right field corner seats.

            1. That was the game I attended and it happened right in front of me. It was pretty disturbing actually.

            2. Dude, seriously, Tocci was 17 or 18 years old at the time you saw him play last year. Developmentally speaking, it would have been totally age-appropriate for him to plunk the elderly fan with a paper bag full of dog poop.

          2. I have also seen him in person 4 times. He will never develop the strength. He will never make it to the majors. He will never hit above .240 in a season in the minors. All the Tocci-lovers live him cause he’s 18 and “holding his own” in the sally. Well he actually isn’t holding his now. Or anything close to it.

            At some point potential has to meet production, or in the case of an 18 year old, at least show us there’s potential that your potential will someday meet the production. And there’s no sifns of that. All these people that have never seen him play (99% of the commenters on here) are trying to extract something positive from his advances stats and his comparative age to his league but if you’ve seen him with your own eyes and still think there’s anything more than a miracles chance he makes it than get your eyes examined or go comment on a messageboard for another sport.

            Also how is Matt seeing all these prospects and coming up with these in depth scouting reports if he lives in Wisconsin? Serious question. Is there a service I can subscribe to watch minor league games? How can I watch Lakewood games online? Is that possible? How does Matt do it?

            1. http://www.milb.com/milb/multimedia/milbtv.jsp (not going to get a ton of Lakewood, but all AAA, and most of Reading)

              Also I talk to a ton of people. People smarter than me, and I ask for their opinions, and I match it with what I see and what the stats back up. I take all of that and I try to put it together as a single player and not a collection of attributes. I am going to miss more than someone seeing all these guys constantly, but I am not pulling things out of thin air.

            2. My attitude on Tocci is we really just have to be patient and wait and see. Two years from now, you may turn out to be right. He’s far from a sure thing as a prospect. But it’s also far too early to make definitive predictions like, “He will never hit .240 for a season in the minors.” Heck, he’s hitting .231 right now, he’s not too far off from your supposedly unreachable target.

              I’ve actually seem him live a couple of times at Spring Training and I have the opposite feeling about his frame. He’s not a small guy, he’s pretty tall (6’2″ according to BR) and lanky, and so it’s just a matter of whether he can beef up. Maybe he won’t, but it seems far too early to so so definitively. In fact, I can say from rueful personal experience that one of the few certainties in life is that many people who are skinny at age 18 do not end up being skinny all their lives.

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