2013 Breakout Prospects

Yesterday was about the prospects off of the radar who may get on to lists and gain attention.  Breakout prospects are players who are going to make a leap in value and projection.  They could be anywhere, if you think Biddle is going to start pitching 93-95 and make his changeup a plus pitch, then he might be a breakout prospect as he jumps in national rankings.

The process is almost as important as the result so please share what kind of adjustment or change is going to make this prospect really make a huge leap this year.

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

115 thoughts on “2013 Breakout Prospects

  1. For me it’s Adam Morgan whom I expect to show maturity and confidence as he continues to track in the system. I expect this to be his last season in the minors and that he will spend less than a year on the farm before becoming a big part of the Phils as they move forward.

  2. Maikel Franco continues the tear he started in Lakewood, torches Clearwater and is a Top 100 prospect in Reading by season’s end. As for pitchers, my money’s on Watson in Lakewood.

    1. I would vote/hope for Franco to continue his climb and really start tapping into the power consistently. Pitching wise i like the Watson idea, but i think Gueller has more room to improve since he is so raw and i think he takes that big first step.

  3. I was surprised at how low everyone was on Mitch Gueller. The guy has hardly pitched at all, yet he’s 8 spots below Watson in the Reader Top 30. He has the upside of a #2-3 starter and was taken a mere 14 spots after Watson, so I think that he’ll have a strong year that will solidify his position as a legit prospect.

    1. He shouldn’t even be ranked yet, let alone high up on the Top 30. He has pitched very little and his numbers were bad. If he has a strong year next year then he will move up the lists. I don’t get the reasoning for listing people high on the list based on draft position. Oh, you say there are some positive scouting reports. Well, you wouldn’t have the high draft position without them, so you’re still basically ranking on draft position. So, Hewitt needs to move way up the list. Martinez above Asche. Ruf off the list.

      1. This makes no sense. Just because we have less information on a player doesn’t mean we can’t rank them.

        Think of the ranking as being trade value. If Gueller was on another team, and that team offered him to the Phillies in exchange for (say) Valle, would you take it? If you say yes, then you should rank Gueller above Valle. If you say no, then you should rank Valle higher.

        There are only two options: yes or no. You can’t say “incomplete.”

        1. Your exactly right, in regards to ranking as (trade) value. It’s hilarious that some would rank someone like Kelly Dugan ahead of Mitch Gueller. If the Phillies put both on the trade block, every team in the majors would take Mitch Gueller, if given the choice.

      2. The Hewitt/Martinez argument is not a good one since we have a much larger sample to evaluate them on. The bottom line for me is Gueller is all dream thus not tainted by terrible numbers. He is just a young kid who we will learn much more about this season. All i need is a draft pick and a dream

        1. No, it’s an example which is right on point. As of today, you have nothing that says that Gueller turns out more like Biddle than like Hewitt. All you know is that he is a primo draft choice with a good scouting report, who put up bad numbers in extremely SSS at GCL. To rank him high at this point is simply to perpetuate the myth that top draft choices are always better than later round guys. Hewitt is the proof that this is wrong. Hewitt was also a significantly earlier pick than Gueller. Gueller isn’t even a first rounder or early in the comp round.

          1. It is not a myth, better round choices are better talents.

            Of the drafted players in the BA Top 100 here are their draft rounds:
            41 – 1st round
            16 – supplemental 1st
            6 – 2nd
            3 – 3rd & 4th
            1 – 5th,8th,13th,18th,19th,21st

            First round picks are better players. Yes there are failures but they are an incredibly better bet to be major league players and impact players

            1. Thats true if rankings were static but they’re not they are fluid and while I agree I might not trade Valle for Gueller it doesn’t mean I can’t rank Valle ahead of him.

            2. I would say that you can’t consistently rank Valle above Gueller, and simultaneously prefer to keep Gueller over Valle in a trade.

              My interpretation is that a prospect ranking is based on the players’ relative values. Yes, these fluctuate through time, but the list is a snapshot of current value.

            3. Please at least read what I wrote before you criticize. I said the myth is that primo draft picks are ALWAYS, not emphasis on ALWAYS, better than later picks. That is the rationale that some have for putting somebody with few appearances and bad stats high on a prospect list ONLY because they were a primo draft pick with a good pre-draft scouting report. In compiling this list, we should not be comparing an AVERAGE primo pick to an AVERAGE later pick. In the case of someone like Asche or Ruf we know that they have put up stats that exceed their draft status. This has definitely been true with guys like Brown and Howard. When comparing Howard or Brown as AA players, you don’t say ‘whoops, not a primo draft pick, can’t be all that good’. On a primo pick, sometimes you get Utley, sometimes you get Hewitt. Draft position alone, and draft pick plus scouting report, is not determinative. It is useful information, but far from determinative.

  4. For me it has to be Gillies. I might be the only one that has him 2 on my top 30. Had he not got hurt again last year he very well may be the starting CF this season. Of all the position players in our system with at least 1400 PA’s he has the best offensive production in OBP/OPS/AVG, he walks and he doesn’t strike out a lot. He hits with enough power to keep the defense honest and even if he doesn’t run as well as when he first came up he still has better than avg speed.

    I imagine he starts in LHV and knocks on the door all season…

    1. +1. I agree a healthy Gillies does well in LHV this year and, as you say, “knocks on the door all season..”.

    2. I agree with you on Gillies. I have him ranked very low on my top 30 but if he’s healthy, the sky’s the limit. He has all the tools to be a very good outfielder. I ranked him low because I don’t think he can stay on the field not because of lack of tools.

    3. DMAR, the “best offensive production” is an annoying tic that actually sucks credibility from your argument. It’s been pointed out to you how misleading – and lazy – that argument is, and by making it you actually undercut a pro-Gillies argument. As a Phillie – and this includes last year – he doesn’t really walk and his K rate is only decent. If you want to make a pro Gillies argument, you need to at least confront those facts. Last year was encouraging in some respects, but not in those areas.

      The argument you need to make – not just assume – is to explain why data from 2008 to 2009 in a high offense context in the lower minors should be given more weight – in fact, in your formulation, MUCH more weight, because of the number of PA in those settings – than more recent data in the upper minors. Maybe there is an argument, but you need to MAKE THE ARGUMENT. And “he was injured” doesn’t cut it; hamstring problems don’t tend to affect BB and K rates.

  5. I’m looking for some of the 2011 draft picks to break out this year, specifically: Larry Greene, Tyler Greene, Mitch Walding, and Braden Shull.

  6. Zach Collier.

    K% has dropped each of the last 3 years, and his power increased last year: He hit 6 HRs in 319 PAs compared to 2 in his previous minor league career.

    Now consider that this was in Clearwater. Give him 500 PAs in Reading next year, and I think he will hit 15 HRs just from the added PAs and the park. If he continues to improve he could do even better than that, and I expect some improvement.

    I think he will be in our top-10 next year.

    1. Collier is a player I debated as being one of my top 3 “breakout” players. Being in Reading, his power numbers will probably jump significantly. Another player I am now regretting leaving off my top 30 is Ender Inciarte. I think because we all believe it is a foregone conclusion that he is offered back to Arizona, he hasn’t been considered properly.

      En Inciarte A+: age 21, OPS .796, wOBA .359, K 11.5%, BB 7.9%, ISO .101
      Zach Collier A+: age 21, OPS .732,wOBA .336, K 18.8%, BB 8.2%, ISO .136

      I’m kinda hoping the team can work out a deal to keep this guy.

      1. Agree that we’re probably undervaluing Inciarte, but there’s a massive difference between the Cal League and the FSL.

        Average OPS for Cal League: .770
        FSL OPS: .699

  7. Shane Watson. As I posted yesterday, I believe he will blow through Lakewood, due to his advanced breaking ball, and be a top 3 prospect in the organization next year.
    Tocci is my #2 choice for breakout player. Depending on where they start Kyrell Hudson, Tocci could be the youngest player in the SAL. I believe he will hold his own, and if he plays a full season, he may jump into consideration for top 100.
    Andrew Pullin is my #3. If they allow him to play 2B at Lakewood, he will hit enough, to jump into the organization top 10. Not sure the Phillies will feel comfortable enough having Quinn and Pullin as a starting defensive middle infield. If they do, it could be very interesting in Lakewood.

    1. +1. Agree wholeheartedly about Watson. I think his level of hype will match the Colvins and Cosarts of the world after their A ball seasons.

      1. I a little surprised that there isn’t more excitement about Watson. He is the highest rated arm the Phillies have drafted in at least 5 years. Higher rated than Biddle, Cosart, Colvin or May. All of those guys dominated SAL hitters in their 2nd year and eventually jumped into the top 100 prospects. I expect at least that from Watson.

          1. Mitch Gueller wasn’t rated that high by most scources. He was rated in 100s, by BA and PG. Shane Watson was #30 by BA and #40 by MLB.
            Brody Colvin is the only one of that group I mentioned, who was close to Watson as an amateur talent. Colvin only pitched well for half of a year in the SAL, and he jumped into the the top 100 prospects the next off season. If Watson doesn’t get hurt, I fully expect him to be top 100, next year.

  8. I like Ethan Martin. He’ll gain control of his stuff and rival Biddle as the Phillies top pitching prospect.

  9. My big prospect breakout is Tommy Joseph (much more advanced than d’Arnaud was at the same age – love the make-up) others are as follows (by the way, I view players like Asche and Morgan as already having had their breakout seasons):

    Biddle (shows everyone he’s been holding back on the heat – really surges forward)
    Giles (could end the season in AAA, but just as likely to be included in a mid-season trade – hate to say it, but Amaro loves to trade prospects and he’ll be on any team’s short list)
    Franco (great power, good eye, can field at third – he’s a keeper)
    Collier (I love how he has progressed in the last year; the growing plate discipline is huge)
    Gillies (it’s now or probably never for him as a Phillie)
    Walding (scouting reports are too good to ignore)
    Greene (we know he has a good eye and a good hit tool – if he hits 15 homers, I will be perfectly happy with that)
    Quinn (the one player in the organization most likely to turn into a superstar)

    Dark horse candidates

    Rosenberg (could be a complete surprise in rotation)
    Hyatt (too early to write him off – think Tyler Cloyd with MUCH better stuff)
    Altherr (scouting reports much, much better than the performance – is this the year that talent catches up to his peformance?)
    Manzanillo (apparently, he throws ridiculously hard. I’m intrigued)

    Major league breakout candidate

    Pettibone – may have #3 upside potential. Will easily settle in as a #4 guy – could either become an important trade chip or this year’s Worley or Happ – don’t count him out.

  10. meant to include Cozens in the “Dark Horse candidates” category. I see a breakout in his future, but perhaps not this year. Same thing with Quinn and Franco.

  11. Does anyone know where the Big Leaguers hang out after spring training games? Or where are some fun places to go in Clearwater? (Night clubs or restaurants) I will be there for a week coming up soon and clueless on where to go.

    1. Dinner at the Island Way Grill is a must, its really good and players are there all the time. The Beachcomber is another spot. Lots of the minor league guys go to the Tilted Kilt, near the stadium. No players but go to Lenny’s for breakfast.

  12. This is a fun topic. We could have a breakout year as a system this year if several of these guys start reaching their potential. Guys like Gillies, Franco, Greene Jr, Joseph, Valle, Walding, Altherr, Collier, Cozens, Pullin and Green all have the potential to have a great year and look like future major league starters at the end of the season. If I had to predict my top two from that list, I would take Greene Jr and Walding because I think each has huge upside. I think it will be another year for the very young Tocci. On the pitching side, Watson and Gueller are the big two but Martin could jump way up with a good year and Giles and Knigge could excel as relievers.

  13. Cozens – I think he’ll turn some head
    Biddle – He has great work ethic, won’t be the least bit suprised if he takes it up a few notches
    Hernandez, C – He’ll show us he’s ready for the Show
    Franco – I think he’s starting to put it all together. Will be very intrigueing to watch

  14. I like Sebastian Valle to get the message and begin to be patient at the plate. This will allow him to regain his status as a top prospect in our organization. The next year will be his break-out in national perspective as he makes the majors with this or another team. I also like Larry Greene, Jr and Brady to have break-out seasons. Quinn had a year last year, but this year he will literally run away with the Sally League.

    1. I will be satisfied if Quinn can pull a “Cool Papa Bell.” You know, turn out the bedroom light and be in bed before the room gets dark.

  15. Kelly Dugan showed what he can do when healthy. I look for him to have a similar season that Asche had last year.

  16. Not sure if this is the correct category for Derrick but I will add my comment anyway. This comment is not ment to start a post war! I have it on very good information that if anyone in the outfield is out due to injury that D Mitchell is first pulled up. I know all the “age to level” arguments, and the stats from last year. Please remember the injury that took him out for 2 months of the season. More important he has many talents that justify a shot in the show, not to mention the new addition to the bigs coaching staff loves the way Derrick plays. For some it may be to little to late but he will have a good year and he will get a shot all the way up, what he does with that shot is up to him

    1. Defensively Mitchell is superb. But alas, that contact rate, the curve ball, haunts many a wannabe MLB prospect!

        1. I am glad that the coach staff disagrees with you. As I said if an outfielder is injured he is first to be called up.

          1. Revere, Brown, Nix, D. Young, Inciarte, Ruf, and Mayberry are all current OFers on the Phillies staff, thus they are ahead of Mitchell on the depth chart. There’s 7 players there, and we need 4, MAYBE 5 if you feel like we need a platoon at each corner. Even assuming we send Ruf down to work on D and Mitchell is the first minor leaguer called up in case of injury, I see a minimum of TWO injuries needed for him to get his “shot” out of the gate. If we also assume Inciarte is offered back (probable) and Young is out for at least a couple of weeks to start the season, then we have four outfielders still (Revere, Mayberry, Brown, and Nix). And that’s assuming the absolute best case scenario, which includes assuming Mitchell is ahead of Ruf, which I very much doubt. I don’t see any reason to think we’ll be seeing him in Philly.

            1. In a sense, it is a ridiculous conversation, because what we’re talking about at best is the guy getting a cup of coffee at some point, because of his deficiencies as a hitter.(it isn’t primarily an age/level issue, it would be an age/level issue if he could actually hit).

              BUT (a) they will carry 5, and (b) Inciarte will be offered back; if the Phillies somehow manage a deal to keep him, he is not going to be rushed to the majors. So with Satan Young likely on the DL, Mitchell may well be just one injury away from a call up. I wouldn’t expect him to do much with that opportunity, at least on the offensive side of the ball, but he may well get it.

            2. And you recognize most of the specifics of this, yet still come to the wrong conclusion. Not sure why you think they would go with only 4 outfielders. I think the chance if that is roughly zero, maybe lower.

            3. I think they easily go with 4 outfielders until Young is back. Because of how spread out the schedule is early in the year, there’s no need for a 5th outfielder to start with. You really just need your starters, and possibly a defensive replacement for late in games. If we assume Nix (or Mayberry), Revere, and Brown are our starters, Mayberry (or Nix) can be a defensive replacement having Brown (or Nix) in LF, Revere in CF, and Mayberry in RF. That’s a hell of a lot of speed in the OF and actually very good defense (assuming Brown’s defense is average or better in LF, or that Nix is in LF). Mitchell’s only asset would be defensive replacement, which we don’t need.

              I think they’d rather roll with 4 OF and use the spot for a big bat (Ruf, probably, who is only coincidentally an “OFer”) until Satan returns.

            4. have people actually looked at the regular season schedule this year? because it isn’t spread out like it has been in the past. The first game is April 1st. Over the course of the first month the phillies have 3 days off, and one of those days is April 2. From April 3 to April 28th the phillies have one day off. It is not a spread out early schedule like years past.

            5. Umm … where you going to get the big bat? You mention Ruf, and I agree that he is ahead of Mitchell. But with Satan on the DL, you have 5 (including Ruf). If someone gets injured, I absolutely can see a case for Mitchell to be the guy called up. Sure, he can’t hit – but he can defend, and it is not as if the upper minors are teeming with good hitters at the moment (and the few exceptions are better off getting playing time in the minors). No, Mitchell, with all of his deficiencies, is probably the ideal guy to bring up for a short stint on the bench if there is an injury (and frankly I’d prefer him to Satan Young, even over the long haul, but then there are probably a couple of dozen minor league players in the Phillies’ organization alone who i would prefer to Satan).

            6. Larry, it is pretty offensive to call a person “Satan” and it is not funny. It is only baseball after all. Lighten up.

        2. I don’t know what games your watching but he made more great catches last year than most. Plus played all 3outfield spots well very well. Lead Triple AAA in Assists with 8, and also did it in Double A. It took A Hall of Famer to notice him, that tells me something ?

      1. I can get behind that statement. I think that is an area he will have to improve in! The thing he has to his advantage is his great athleticism. For the last month and a half he has been hitting with a group that includes Ryan Howard every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Yesterday in batting practice he took a very good pitcher deep. If he stays healthy he will impress a lot of people.

        1. As a major leaguer, if things broke well for him, he’s maybe a .230/.280/.340 hitter. If he was a slick hitting middle infielder, that would play in a reserve role. He isn’t.

          Unfortunately for Mitchell, athleticism, while useful in many respects for a baseball player (defense, base running mainly), doesn’t have a heck of a lot to do with hitting a baseball.

        2. And yes, I exaggerated a little but not much. There are some aspects of hitting where athleticism helps, but unfortunately for Mitchell, the areas where he is deficient are unrelated to athleticism. There have been many players in major league history with more athleticism – and power – than Mitchell who failed utterly because the couldn’t hit a curve ball and had limited contact and plate discipline skills.

          1. I disagree strongly, Mitchell has played all 3outfield spots and has done a outstanding job at all 3, He will defently be a late inning sub until he hits with more consistently then he will own one of the spots what and see. Sandburg recognizes that all ready.

          1. Derrick will start in LHV on questions about it. Lots of very good points however the coaches make the final call. It is fun to play out every possible scenario but if I had a $ for every time someone’s hyper analyzed predictions were off…..well you know. The fact remains that they brought him back, they are paying him more and they want to see him all the way up. Two seasons ago he had 19 hrs and 20 sb and last year he was well on his way until he broke his hand. Very important to understand that with a hand injury just because a doctor clears you to play does not mean you are going to be swinging the bat at 100%. Larry you are very good with baseball analytics and make very solid points, the only problem is real life sometimes plays out different than it looks on paper. The sleeper on this whole conversation is Sandberg. He pulls a lot of weight and sees a lot of potential in derricks hitting ability. No question it’s all or nothing this year for him and he knows that.

          2. Please understand that it makes no difference if I am family or not. Your opinions are valid and driven by stats. Don’t hold back your honest opinion on account of my feelings. Yes I want to see Derrick do well and have a vested interest which can sometimes make my opinion a little jaded, however I also see the game a little differently. When you have played the game your whole life you look at it from a players standpoint not to mention I sometimes get privileged information, which has yet to be wrong.

            1. I’m not as steeped in SABR as some of the others here but man Derrick can’t hit and he can’t get on base and I say that with no malice. I’ve seen him play and by all accounts he is a nice kid destined to be org filler for as long as he wants to play.

              no shame in that mind you!

            2. If you look at his career stats as a whole that statement is a fair one. If you look at segments of the last couple of years you can argue that point. The double header before he was hurt was unreal. He was something like 6 for 8 with 2 hrs ( don’t quote me). Also two years ago he had 20 stolen bases so again he has shown real spurts of promis. This is a new season with new opportunity and if he can repeat the good and lose the bad he will change some minds.

            3. It was not just the doub head when he hit well, he certainly hit with good power in reading with 19 hrs. Is average is of no concern if he can keep it above .270 because he is that good defensively. If he can stick 20 hrs a season, grab 20 bases and keep a low errors with a good amount of put outs then he will be a big league OF.

            4. Except that he did this in AA, as a 24 year old, The chances that he manages to repeat that IN THE MAJORS are slim (to say the least). And repeating it in AAA at age 26 would not help his case.

              What Mitchell would need to do in AAA at his age to become a viable prospect would be to improve across the board, to say .300/.380/.490, and even that probably wouldn’t be enough. Tim Fedroff did much better than that in AAA as a 25 year old last year, and is an afterthought on the Indian’s prospect list.

              Minor league numbers do not translate directly to major league numbers.

    2. Interesting conversation but a good spring training by Jermaine Mitchell could put him ahead of D Mitchell. In fact, if D Young was healthy there’s a chance that Ruf doesn’t make the team and then there’s a chance that D Mitchell doesan’t even start in LHV. He’s in a fight with Jermaine for playing time.

  17. Can’t believe no one said Roman Quinn, tons of steals over a full season plus another year of switch hitting. Could be a top 50 prospect by the end of this season.

    1. The universe is supposed to be dark horses who didn’t make this season’s top 30 lists, not guys listed as high as #2.

  18. My pick is Franklyn Vargas. He may have trouble in a breakout mode since he will likely not but in full season ball and therefore will still be ‘far’ away but I can see him having an excellent year.

    I also expect breakout performances by L.Greene and Watson.
    Surprised nobody has mentioned Lino yet. If he is at CLW and the skills begin to match the tools he could move into the Top5.
    DeFratus will graduate, but I think he becomes a majors setup guy depending on the bullpen health.
    Brady could be another one but will have the curse of being too old unless he gets to REA this year. But I could see him starting in CLW then bumping to REA which would put him in Adam Morgan territory.

  19. On Mitchell – let’s break this down into “how good was he” and “how good could he be.”

    On the first question, prior performance, yes the stats do tell us everything we need to know, and they tell us that has, up till now, not been a good hitter. Even 2011, considering ALL his numbers, and the context, was just not that good. Not the kind of season “real” OF prospects have in AA, in a hitter’s park, even when age appropriate (and he wasn’t). Essentially ALL he had going for him were the HR, and 19 HR in Reading is just not that impressive. BB rate was below average, K rate below average, BA just okay. He stole 20 bases – and was CS 10 times. Below the break even point.Sure, IF he could duplicate all that in the majors, with his defense, and if he could stick in center field, he would have a major league career. But expecting him to hit that well against major league competition (all else being equal) is not realistic. The difference in level of competition between AA and the majors is huge.. Neil Walker hit about that well in the majors in 2012, but his AA season was at age 22 and was significantly better than Mitchell’s at age 24.

    On the second question, it’s absolutely true that the numbers don’t tell us the whole picture, and on THAT point my level of certainty is lower (albeit still high). Certainly I am open to arguments why we can expect him to improve dramatically – which he would need to do. Certainly I am open to arguments why the scouts AND the numbers are both wrong. But I haven’t seen persuasive arguments.

    There seems to be two types of arguments in his favor. The Sandberg argument can be quite easily dismissed. Who knows what Sandberg REALLY thinks; his job (in part) is to puff up his prospects. And in Sandberg’s case, not just with Mitchell, puff he does, in a big way. Listen to Sandberg and you wonder how the AAA and AA team ever lost a game. No, I put zero weight on anything he says.

    So what else do we have? we have people who have seen him play, and rave about his athleticism. But, as I said, that athleticism has zero, or almost zero, to do with the holes that exist in his hitting. So why should we believe that he will make improvements almost unprecedented in the history of the game considering where he is now, and his age/ level)? Athleticism isn’t going help his plate discipline, his contact ability, or his ability to hit a curve ball. And, of course, as someone who will START 2013 as 26 year old, assuming a normal aging curve, he doesn’t have much room for improvement, let alone dramatic improvement.

    1. I got an argument, Ruf is a soon to be hall of famer and he is like 40ish. Maybe Ruf and Mitchell made the same exact wish on the same exact shooting star…..

    2. One good thing about age is it comes with experience and that’s what will help his plate discipline. Athleticism combined with discipline we help him hit a curve. His problem with the curve is not hand eye it’s getting out on his front foot. Discipline will help him stay back and if he should get out front athleticism can help with contact where a less athletic player may not be able to adjust.

      1. Mitchell just isn’t that good. I’ve seen him at both Reading and Allentown. The Phillies farm is not overly full of solid position prospects, at least at the upper levels, and Mitchell didn’t stand out on either the Reading or Allentown teams. Nor was he young for either team. I don’t think he is a legit NL starting CF, so he needs a good enough bat to play corner OF. His .760 OPS at Reading isn’t going to cut it. It may be due to injury, but his offensive stats last year were bad. If he picks it up a bit he has a chance to reach the majors as a 4th/5th OF, since he’s good enough in CF to fill in there.

          1. No, he really is not a superb defender. For instance, James and Gillies are both better OF than he is. He is just not in the same league as guys like Revere.

            1. Who said he was in Revere’s league, who is superlative and outstanding! However, he is alone and better then current Phillie OFs…….Mssrs.Brown, Ruf, Nix, Mayberry.

            2. So funny when people say he’s not that good defensively?? He has an amazing catch last year righ on LHV multimedia site. It does not mean he’s great but it does highlight his ability to track as well as his “superb” hand-eye. To have the most put outs and miss 2 months last year is another reason why he IS superb! To say otherwise is not accurate!!

            3. Yes, he is a better defensive OF than the 4 guys you mention. Except for Mayberry, these guys aren’t even average defensively. To be superb defensively you have to be an elite defender. Mitchell just isn’t. A highlight reel catch does not superb make.

            4. I did not mention the other 4 OF players different Anonumous however you are right he is. I can think of 5 examples from last year alone that make Derrick a superb defender. It is a little more difficult to defend his offense right now but his defense is a no brainier!! As I said a highlight catch does not make a great defender however when you can look up three from the same year on the same player it starts to build a solid case. Derrick can get to any ball that any OF’er you name can. He has as strong if not stronger arm than anyone you can name, hence his high put out ratio. Arguing about his defensive ability is silly, and you really have to stretch reality to say he is not a great defender.

    3. I don’t know how this thread got hijacked with this nonsensical Derrick Mitchell debate, but it is very possible that Mitchell is one of the 1st call-ups if there is an injury. That doesn’t make him good, and that doesn’t make him a breakout prospect. It makes him a warm body, to catch the ball a few games, if a Major League player gets a short term injury.

      Derrick Mitchell could very well be the next TJ Bohn, and get a World Series ring. It’s not far fetched. Mitchell has all the tools to be the next TJ Bohn.

        1. He’s absolutely shown Major League talent the last 8 years in the minor leagues. I don’t know why the Phillies have moved him so slowly. He’ll be greater at the highest level.

          1. Aside from his injury last year he has adapted well at every level. He only played one year in reading and was moved up and was moved up. He came right out of high school and had a hard time adjusting in the first 3 years of his minors career. The last 3 he has adjusted well and there is no reason to believe he won’t do the same in the majors.

            1. I agree. Mitchell’s 238 abs, last year in AAA, showed a lot of promise and his ability to make adjustments. There is every reason to believe he will adjust well in the majors.

            2. If Mitchell doesn’t break his hand we very well may have had a great season. He was extremely hot at the plate and playing SUPERB in the field. On this one we will agree to disagree.

            3. Are you guys high or something? I have nothing against Derrick Mitchell and it’s possible he could get called up if a lot goes wrong at the major league level, but his ceiling is probably Jason Michaels. His floor is Jeremy Slayden. Odds are that he will bounce up and down occasionally between AAA and the majors but will mostly reside at AAA. Hey, good luck to him and I hope I’m wrong but nothing about his statistical year last year suggested a break through. To the contrary, it suggested he had reached the level of his incompetence. Is he a family member or good friend? What gives?

            4. Sorry to be so sarcastic, but it’s a bizarre amount of devotion focused on a player who, to date, has been completely marginal. I don’t get it.

            5. I think the response to my speculation about “family” tells you all you need to know about what’s going on here. Mind you, this makes me feel a little bad that we pushed back so strongly on the point.

            6. Hey, if you folks are friends or family of Derrick Mitchell, more power to you – it’s fine to be partisan about players you know personally and of course you are free to disagree with our mostly statistical analysis. However, to avoid threads that go sideways in the future, can you at least disclose generically that you are associated with him (or any other player)? Virtually everyone on this site will be nice (and appreciative of your thoughts) if we know you have a vested interest in the player.

  20. I know nothing about this guy but Keith Law mentioned Yoel Mecias as a breakout guy for 2013. Lefty with a 94 mph fastball and good feel for a change up according to Keith.

    Crashburn Alley’s where I got that from.

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