General Discussion – Week of February 18. Hilarious Giancarlo Stanton Rumors Edition.

So some guy says the Phillies are aggressively pursing Giancarlo Stanton. It would have to be aggressive, otherwise, they’d just be waved out of the room and a large man in a suit would show them the door.

Rube: GIVE ME STANTON, NOW!!!  I’VE GOT NEARLY UNLMITED SUPPLIES OF FRINGY RELIEF ARMS IN THE HIGH MINORS AND ALSO SOME KIND OF KNIFE IN MY POCKET!!! No, I won’t show you the knife. Oh, trust me, it’s a knife. Like one of those ones with the wavy edge? What’s that? Serrated? Am I saying it right? Ser…serrated? 


146 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of February 18. Hilarious Giancarlo Stanton Rumors Edition.

  1. Can’t wait for saturday. Really hoping Dom can get off to a hot start. He bulked up quite a bit over the winter supposedly.

  2. If anyone has a chance – the January 18th Fangraphs podcast has a glowing report on Roman Quinn. Roman’s gotten a lot of credit on this site over the past year, rightfully so, and its nice to see some “national” talking heads excited about him as well.

    1. This afternoon on WIP Anthony Gargano is talking about it. He says that the Rangers have way too much to offer vs Phillies, in terms of prospects….Marlins do not want huge salary guys.

  3. Pls give them Brown in any deal. Maybe he can grow with full-time play. Do NOT trade: Martin, Morgan, Pettibone, Biddle, Joseph or Asche.

    Maybe a couple relievers (including Wright?) added in. And some $$$$ which they need. And Ruf?

    1. Art, I say this in a friendly spirit, not to be mean, but why not then simply say “I don’t think we should do such a deal,” instead of suggesting prospects that would be maybe the 4th and 5th pieces of a deal, if we traded our best two prospects, AND somehow acquired a top 25 prospect in baseball to ALSO throw into the deal? I mean, if you’re going to dream, dream large: Micheal Martinez for Trout.

      The guys you mention as players you want in the deal, plus ALL SIX of your untouchables, probably wouldn’t get the deal done.

      1. Come on Larry, you can get more creative than that. How about Stanton for Hewitt and a carton of Pall Malls? Now that’s a good deal for both sides.

    2. There’s really no match possibile I’m afraid. Stanton is a beast and any real deal for him will include a top 10 overall talent plus a top 50 guy to boot. We don’t possess that in any form.

  4. If you want Stanton I’d say it’d take something like Biddle, Morgan, Quinn, Asche/Franco/Joseph, Aumont, maybe another piece like Tocci. Honestly I don’t think I’d want to do that deal because that’s a lot of talent to give up. Don’t get me wrong I think Stanton is about one of the best players you could send that package for but it’d almost be like we were selling low on some of our high beta guys. You also have to ask yourself if Stanton minus all those guys is enough for you to contend a few years down the road. I would say probably not.

    1. I’d do it in a heartbeat if the Marlins would hold the line for more than a second and laugh hysterically as they hang up.

      1. I think the sad thing is there is probably someone who read that and went “that sounds like a fair deal.”

  5. Literally giving the Marlins our entire farm system wouldn’t be enough for Stanton. This is what four-five years of trades will do to your trade prospects.

  6. Re: Stanton – it’s not like a three month rental of a star player destined for free agency, where a package of 2 big prospects and a big-league-ready bullpen piece might get it done. He’s under team control and relatively inexpensive for 4 more years. (4? I think it is). If Florida had any contract weight to pass along, and we had one guy really high up on top 100 lists, then maybe something could happen. But every team wants Stanton, (I can’t think of one that wouldn’t be at least interested enough to put a package on the table), and as we know, most teams have better farms/young big leaguers than the Phillies.

    1. There is no possible combination of players that gets Stanton without blowing the team up for the present and short term. They don’t have the prospects without gutting everything out of the farm (think Top 5-6 + Tocci + 2 PTBNL in Watson and Gueller) essentially giving the Marlins enough risky upside guys that they diversify the risk. That dooms the team for being able to compete. Other scenarios involve eating large portions of Hamels’ or Lee’s contracts and sending them to the Marlins (paying all) or to a third team for prospects.

      Hamels for free is likely the only conversation starter and that doesn’t exactly help the team win.

      1. Additionally consider what kind of no-trade clauses Lee and Hamels have. (I don’t know what they have, does anybody here know?) After what Miami has done this offseason, nobody is going to want to go to there while Loria is there.

  7. lets see. imo there isnt a deal we coluld do that the marlins would want. that being best deal for him would be this. aumont. morgan,quinn, biddle, revere,and galvis.

    1. Yes there is, the problem is it COULD be easily beaten by a team with multiple top 50 prospects.

      The problem is it makes no sense to completely gut the farm system of a team who’s window to compete is slowly closing. Joseph, Asche, Morgan, Biddle, etc could all contribute in some fashion very cheaply as regulars by 2014/2015.

    2. Well your best deal is not even in the ballpark of starting a discussion with the Marlins so you are correct when you say there is not a deal of Phils prospects the Marlins entertain

  8. Delmon Young for Stanton straight up. Young’s way more talented but a bit older, so it should be a decent trade-off for the Phils in an attempt to get younger.

  9. Anyone else think the phils should think about Loshe if it looks like he will end up taking a one year deal?

    They don’t necessarily need more starting pitching but he could be an upgrade. I don’t know how close they are to the luxury tax. The outfield is certainly cheap.

    1. I would do Lohse but not on a 1-year deal. He will cost their 1st round pick which is too steep a price for a 1-year rental. If they could do a 3-year deal at something around $30m then losing the pick isn’t as much of a deal.

      1. I think the only way to make this work is for the Cardinals to do a sign and trade. The price would have to be right ($8 million?) and it could not cost a lot in terms of prospects (low level prospect with upside or near ready middle reliever – think Aaron Altherr or Mike Schwimer).

  10. That’s messed up for who ever the shrub at Philly CBS is that made it up. I didn’t hear Mikey Miss talk about it on 97.5 this afternoon. Give Miami/Florida Fish Sticks what ever they want from to farm!

  11. In the past people have asked how to best to contact us. I have added a tab to the top that has our contact information, it is still under construction, maybe we will add bios or just keep it with some email addresses and twitter handles..

  12. I would trade any 8 players in the organization not named Hamels.

    De Fratus

    Sadly, I still don’t think this gets it done. (even if it did, they would still have Matin, Morgan, Ruf, Ashce, Aumont, Diekman, Gillies…and Rupp and Valle) For Stanton, I’ even throw Revere into that deal and make it an 8 for 1 deal….I’d even take Nolasco back. This would save Maimi so much money and give them 8 low cost MLB ready or near ready players. Sadly, I still don’t think this gets it done.

  13. I see a lot of reasons why the phillies won’t get Stanton. Marlins want low cost certainty and Stanton gives them this. There are likely other teams that would offer higher quality players. The only way this could happen is if the Phillies end up on the other end of a Cliff Lee like situation. If no one else is negotiating (everyone thinks their higher quality prospects will play well in the show) and / or there is an urgency in Miami to rid themselves of the player, then a lower bid can win.

    But Jupiter is not aligned with Mars, and this isn’t a fantasy league, so…

  14. The only possible way would be a 3 team deal where the Phillies send starting pitching to a team like Texas and they send some top prospects to Miami. I actually would do it and nobody would be untouchable.

  15. This makes me hate the Pence trade even more in hindsight. Having Singleton and Cosart to add to Biddle, Quinn, Morgan would give us a much better *chance* of pulling this off.

  16. A deal is so easy to make. How about one top prospect in our top 5 plus 4 prospects in the 6 – 15 range PLUS a 5 year swap of locations? Florida plays in Philly and the Phils play in Miami for 5 years (possibly add an option for 2 more years if they need a sweetener). That’s the way to get the Marlins to deal. Creativity Ladies and Gentlemen… creativity.

  17. Brian Kenney did a piece on Stanton last night…that kid is the kind of player you build around not trade plus they made the mistake once with Cabrera I don’t see them making it again at least not in the near future…

    If you want to make a trade go after Randall Grichuk…I can’t believe the Angels are comfortable with their pitching and the OF is quite crowded there now.

  18. Does any one remember Andrew Miller, Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop, outfielder Cameron Maybin, and catcher Mike Rabelo. Some of these players are good but this is what it took Tigers to get Cabrera.

    Tell me why a deal of


    The marlins are not going to win. They are also not going to draw with just stanton. By the time you get close Stanton is too expensive. The only way to do it is truly blow it up. Look how good Angles were they had Trout, Pujols, and still could not win World Series. Yes other teams have better prospects but are they in the same position of wanting to blow up farm system for 1 last run.

    Do I think this is going to happen, NO. But can it happen yes. Would it make sense yes I think it would.

    1. Because there is not a star there. Yes, the Marlins got nothing out of the players they got in the Cabrera trade (Maybin has actually turned into a good player whose numbers are horribly surpressed by Petco. You are looking at that deal in hindsight. At the time in Maybin and Miller were #6 and #10 in BASEBALL not in the Tigers organizations. They were the #10 pick in the 2005 draft (20 year old Maybin who had made his major league debut) and the #6 pick in the 2006 draft (22 year old Miller who had pitched most of the season in the majors). If anything the Cabrera deal is an indicator, it is why you don’t trade a superstar for prospects.

      1. Also, at a certain point it isn’t worth it for the Phillies. Stanton is obviously a great young player, but you’re talking about completely gutting the system. Where does that leave us a few years down the line?

    2. True but thats revisionist history. Maybin was the center piece of that deal at the time he might have been the #6 prospect in all of baseball. Miller may have been #10. Now history shows they had that wrong.

      Also Miguel had an alcohol problem and he was about to start making big money. Those issues don’t exist for Stanton.

  19. How about we take Stanton for nothing and we promise to share any world series titles with the Marlins? Maybe we let them tag along for the parade or be in the locker room and pop the champagne corks……

  20. All I was saying is that Look at it from marlins side, do they have a chance of winning with him. The answer is no. By the time they get to the point of even being in the conversation it is going to be to late and stanton will not be there. Is this deal going to really happen probably not but on the merits That is a fair deal.
    2 Number three starters with upside potential.
    A game changer at ss with his speed
    A defensive wizard at 2nd
    A power hitting third baseman
    A backup catcher
    Brown is a throw in who was rated as high as a top 5 prospect in baseball but now a change in location with no pressure might help him reach his potential.

    I was only showing that there is a precedent and it is not as crazy as people on this board make it seem.

    1. You are correct anything is possible but I don’t see it happening. If you think trade is the way to go consider looking at some teams who are deep with talent but also in a window to win a championship or

      Consider a team with a highly paid star that is well out of the window to win now. Remember a trade has to be mutually beneficial in some way.

      I just think the Marlins are under so much pressure with their off season and their new stadium there is no way they could sell trading one of the games super stars for unknowns again.

    2. But you are talking about a major question mark (Brown), and guy who at best profiles as a back-up catcher (Valle), and a defense first SS who has never really hit anywhere and is coming off a PED suspension (Galvis). The other 4 have a total of 6 games played above A-ball. The Marlins would hang up the phone and laugh uncontrollably.

      Now in 2 years, if those players are having success at higher levels, with a couple ranked in BA top 25, it would be different.

      1. In BA’s chat accompanying the Top 100, Cooper or Badler (can’t remember which) said May did not appear on anybody’s list for the top 150.

  21. Ryan Lawrence, CSN writes on Ben Revere:
    Revere’s speed leads to the obvious question of whether he’ll dethrone Jimmy Rollins at the top of the Phillies’ lineup. Even Rollins agreed to the debate: “He’s definitely a leadoff hitter.”
    Just don’t ask manager Charlie Manuel. “I don’t think you guys ever see the value in Jimmy Rollins,” Manuel told reporters before running off Rollins’ production numbers. “He’s been my leadoff hitter ever since I’ve been here. When I see Ben Revere hit and see him play, we’ll sit down and talk about where he’s going to hit and where he’s going to help us the most. I’ve got an idea. We’ll find out where we want him. Nobody is going to tell me where to hit somebody.”
    ………..even Jimmy can’t tell Charlie to bat Ben lead-off!

    1. It would truly be ideal if Charlie relents and puts Revere in the lead-off spot and let Jimmy go to the 2, 3 or 6, With Revere on first, when Jimmy is up, there could be some excitment.

      1. apparently Frandsen is playing 2nd in that lineup. i guess they want to see how much versatility he has if he is going to get a bench spot

    1. Adam Morgan 2 innings with 2 K’s (Mayberry and Howard) and 2 double plays. Not bad. I don’t think I can overstate how much I like Adam Morgan going forward as a prospect.

  22. Saturday’s lineup vs. HOU: Revere CF, Young 3B, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Ruf LF, Brown RF, Nix DH, Betancourt SS, Kratz C. Hamels P

    1. Do you happen to know if and what station this game and the other spring training games are being broadcasted on TV?

  23. Any info on phillies in the WBC:
    Australia: C Tim Kennelly
    Brazil: IF Lucas Rojo
    Canada: LHP Jay Johnson
    Venezuela: LHP Cesar Jimenez

    Rojo at least at 18 could be a prospect, Kennelly looks perhaps a AAA/AAAA guy, Johnson looks like a college draft pick and only 23, Jimenez is a AAA/AAAA guy? So other than Rojo, I assume these guys haven’t been talked about for a reason?

    1. Gillies and Aumont are playing for Canada I believe..

      If you watch the Australia league WS on MLB network and saw Kennelly he rakes in that league but never could do much here in the MiLB.

      1. This a great “trade for a bucket of balls” type trade. Art Charles absolutely stinks – I just checked out his BR page.

        This will teach that smug bastard his true value!

        1. He has power and he walks a lot. His slash line is pretty good actually.

          But yeah, taking three years to make it out of rookie ball isn’t a good sign, and big strikeout rates are the reddest of red flags.

          1. Dugan has moved as slowly as Charles and we’ve placed him as a top 30 prospect. Art Charles has had similar production, but has walked more and shown more power.

            1. I don’t believe Charles has dealt with injuries like Dugan did during his first few years. They’re pretty much the same age and Dugan had a better year at a higher level last year than Charles. Dugan had a lower K-rate and slightly better walk rate last year in Lakewood than Charles when he was at Vancouver. Also Dugan is an OF and Charles is a 1B. There’s really nothing to that comparison at all.

            2. Actually there is a lot to compare. Two 1st basemen, age 21, who have just finished the season at Low A. Both with good walk rates and terrible strikeout rates.
              The only differences I see is Charles seems to have more power potential due to size, and Dugan was drafted a year earlier.

            3. When you say they “both finished the season at Low A” I’m not sure if you’re mistaken on the class Vancouver is (short season A) in comparison to full season Lakewood, or if you’re saying there’s no difference between short season and full season A-ball.

            4. So much wrong here. To start, Dugan played the entire season at low-A Lakewood while Charles played a half season with each of Toronto’s short-season teams. Innocent oversight I’m sure but a world of difference when drawing a comparison

            5. You are correct. Charles played a level below Dugan last year.
              They are only similar in that they both spent three seasons in SS ball, (with Charles hitting better than Dugan).

            6. You wonder why he wasn’t moved a little more aggressively – wasn’t really that bad in 2010 or 2011. Injuries?

            7. Yes, but he plays first base and Dugan plays the outfield. Charles has no where to go. He has to have the power work for him. He definitely has more power than Dugan, but a lot less contact.

    1. 22 year old coming into this season with a line of that in 3 seasons .239/.358/.482. Hasn’t really been above A-. Seems like BR has him for a pretty decent range factor too

  24. I am not surprised. Once the Phillies felt he was insubordinate, the odds he would ever play for the Phillies big league team again were extremely low. But he still has a good chance to have some type of major league career. This may be what he was trying to achieve. If so, mission accomplished.

    1. Even now it seems like his chances of ever playing for the Phillies are higher than Charles’ chances. But in the grand scheme of things I guess it won’t hurt much to lose a 6th/7th inning reliever.

  25. RAJ must be making roster space for Stanton. And why not? The way the Marlins’ front office operates, Valle, Pettibone and Cloyd should be able to get it done (being facetious)

  26. I think people forget that Michael Schwimer has been active in finance in the off-season. He appreciates business deals (the reference to this being a business). I think the trade is less important to Schwimer than the $750,000 he will get if he wins his grievance. To him it is worth getting traded. He was not going to back down from the money. Would you? After all he is a professional baseball player.

      1. right – it’s about a month’s major league minimum pay. Not a small amount of money, but worth it to have yourself thought of in MLB as a complainer when you are already on the bubble? I would argue no, but he can turn that around by being cooperative in Toronto.

  27. For those of you who did not see yesterday’s ST game, here is my take – mostly on the guys we follow and very young players. Obviously, it’s the first game of a long ST which will be followed by a much longer regular season – take everything with a grain of salt.

    1. Rosenberg – he’s got the arm to go far, but he struggled mightily with his command of all pitches yesterday, including and especially the fastball. Fastball moves up in the zone but was otherwise fairly straight. He threw a couple of good sliders (I think that’s the main breaking pitch he throws), but also struggled with that. It might be a blessing in disguise for him to go to AAA and start in the rotation. If he keeps pitching like this, he won’t be in the majors to start the year. I will say it looks like his is in good shape – I think he lost about 15 pounds this winter. He is trimmer and face is thinner.

    2. DeFratus – some people around here are gaga about him but I don’t get it. Yeah, I could see him becoming a good 7th inning guy and maybe even an occasional 8th inning guy if all goes well. But he’s pretty inconsistent with his velocity and if he doesn’t locate well, he gets hammered. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good bullpen piece, but he’s got quite a ways to go. He’s probably better than Schwimer but it’s anyone’s guess whether he or Schwim will ultimately end up being the better major leaguer.

    3. Zach Miner – puhlease. Stop wasting our time with this bum.

    4. D. Brown – looked very good. He has filled out a lot since his first year in the big leagues. If they give him a chance, he’s going to justify the patience. I think he’s on the verge of being a really fine player. He even looked good in the outfield where the wind currents yesterday were brutal.

    5. Revere – mixed performance. Made an error and actually hit into a DP. However, he manufactured a run pretty much by himself in the first inning, which was encouraging.

    6. Asche – made a pretty nice play at third and looked very comfortable in the field. He hit into a DP, but it was a result of a line drive. He looks comfortable at the plate. I think he put on some muscle – he looked a little stronger than last year. Also, looks bigger in the forearm area – some complained that his arms were too small last year. You can tell this guys is working like crazy to be a major leaguer and is attempting to improve himself in any way possible.

    7. Inciarte – intriguing. Looks like quite an athlete and he’s not the skinny stick figure type player I thought I would see. I suspect that he’ll spend the entire spring with the team before they make a decision.

    7. Not what everyone wants to hear, but one of the best looking players on the field was Jared Cosart. Cosart looked great. There was no gun, but he’s was probably throwing in the mid to upper 90s. All of his pitches move and are difficult to hit. If he is able to stay in the rotation, he has the pure stuff to be a #1 or #2. Like Edwin Jackson, it will depend on whether he is able to locate well and get his breaking stuff over. But the ability is clearly there.

    8. Michael Young was dreadful in the field – no range and at least one ball he got to, he muffed (ball clanged right off his glove). He really got “Wiggy” with it yesterday.

    Let me know if I missed anything.

    It’s great to have baseball back even if it was a crappy game.

    1. Oh yeah, Ruf was horrible in the field yesterday. Misplaying one ball and not getting to a few others. Looked fine at the plate.

        1. I’d love to be charitable (because I like Ruf a lot) – but I don’t think the wind had anything to do with that play. It was a line drive right hit at him that bounced right off him. It was a flat out muff, not a fly ball that got caught up in the wind.

          1. I wonder if you guys might be talking about different plays. I watched on tv but missed his error. There was an earlier play on a ball over his head that looked like he read it well but just didn’t have the speed to make the catch. The announcers were sure to note that they thought he did the right thing in tracking the ball despite the wind, but just couldn’t get there.

            1. No, I know the play you are referring to, I saw that one too – he just didn’t catch up to the ball. The play I am referring to is one where a line drive was hit right at him, bounced once or twice in front of him and then essentially bounced right off or through him. It was a muffed play – not a judgment call issue with a ball in the air.

  28. I know the play you’re talking about Catch. Looked like it hit the heel of his glove. Definitely made me cringe a little. I am not optimistic about his future in left field.

    On the bright side, Dom just hit a bomb.

    Also, this is just judging by the radio broadcast, but it sounds like Gillies can still fly. I know Matt has mentioned that his injuries may have diminished his speed, but Franzke at least still sounds pretty impressed with him nearly beating out a grounder and making a tough play in the field. I believe in Gillies. I think he’ll be a good major leauger some time soon.

      1. Yeah. I won’t make any judgments based on spring training, but I’m definitely happy to see him get off to a decent start, if only because it will give him a little more leeway once the season begins.

    1. IMO, Ruben is also hoping Gillies catches fire this year…since he probably has intentions of packaging him in a deadline deal….. with Revere sitting in CF for the next 5/7 years and Brown manning RF, Gillies could make to be a good trade chip…if he stays healthy and plays well. .

    1. Pretty enlighteniong to say the least. Not a tremendous indictment of the Phillies process of eval and development. Was interesting on his comment of the ’12-man analytical staff’ that teams are starting to employ and the Phillies seem to abhor.

  29. I like Keith I think his reviews are honest and unbiased but this whole 12 staff analytics thing is a joke. They never fairly talk about the bone head moves these staffs make is my problem with them.

    And conversely they fail to give a guy like Sabean any credit for two WS in 3 years…

    1. The Giants are not on the cutting edge of new numbers and metrics, but they do have a large technical staff looking to pioneer innovations on the gathering of analytic information from improved pitchFX and fieldFX data. The Giants may not have a large number crunching staff but it is not a backwards wasteland

      1. The Phillies have 2/3 guys in that department from what I read a few weeks ago. But they have to carry some form of weight in a decision making process for it to be worthwhile.
        The first seven/nine picks of any draft are crucial for hit and miss and future org success and hopefully they can have some worhtwhile input into the drafting selection.

        1. Amaro said explicitly that they ONLY use the data for trying to figure out how other teams value their players when engaging in trade talks.

        2. And please, not another “I don’t believe a word Amaro says” as a DEFENSE of the man. I think it’s become increasing clear (from personnel moves, mainly) that be believes every silly thing that comes out of his mouth.

      2. The pitchFX and fieldFX data is an “under the radar issue” which is huge. Versions of this are available publicly, but NOT the most sophisticated versions which are closed guarded by major league front offices. Really THIS is increasingly the huge value added aspect of quantitative analysis. A good traditional GM can be aware of aging curves, the value of OBP, the importance of fielding, etc., without looking at a single analytic stat. But the pitchFX and fieldFX data is giving 29 major league organizations vital data that simply isn’t available using traditional scouting. But not the Phillies.

        1. but again these are not examples of advanced metrics. There are examples of using technology to be able to track performances of players without the need to have a scout at every game. I envision the way most people would use this info is post scouting to see if it supports the report. Now teams with larger staffs may do a more avanced processes to roll-up the data to try and see trends, but again that has to be paired with a trained eye to get the whole picture.

    2. DMAR,

      I know we’ve been over this before, but I think you have a huge blind spot here. This isn’t about replacing traditional evaluation methods, it’s about supplementing them – and viewed in that light, there just is no argument against incorporating quantitative analysis. None. The only way you can argue against it, is if you hold an impossible double standard, where every bad move made by an organization that uses modern analysis is counted against it, none of the good moves counted for it, and none of the bad moves of “traditional analysis” held against THAT.

      On the latter point, your “I don’t think Amaro is a good example of a good traditional GM” sticks out like a sore thumb. The simple fact is that the better “traditional” GMs all incorporate quantitative analysis – that’s one of the defining characteristics of a good “traditional” GM (though not the only one – I have myself pointed out that lack of a reliance on modern metrics is not Amaro’s biggest sin). Even San Francisco uses quantitative analysis. (And Sabean gets plenty of credit – pointing out the true fact that a GM deserves credit for getting to the post season, but not so much for what happens once the team gets there, is not unique to Sabean, doesn’t take away from his success, and is not wrong.)

      In ten years, not having a quantitative analysis department will be looked at much as not having a traditional scouting department would be now. Actually, we are almost there now. Other teams are light on quantitative analysis – not many, increasingly few, but some – but the Phillies are the ONLY organization that wears its ignorance on their sleeves with pride.

      1. All I can say is fangraphs didn’t even consider Sabean in their top 10 GM discussions but that’s fine they have their agenda they want to push.

        And in ten years QA will still only explain what happened and not predict it. Not much different then big market teams that try to spend their way to WS titles.

  30. Since so many prospects play in spring games, could we post daily boxscores for Phils spring training games to drive discussion of prospect performance?

    1. Because the Phillies’ scouts like what they see, and don’t pay attention to those silly stats which suggest he can’t play. 🙂 (I kid, I kid.)

    2. To give Revere a rest I guess. They aren’t exactly flush with center fielders.
      I’m more disappointed that Brown is out of the lineup for the second game in a row.

      1. Brown got one AB yesterday. Why not start him and play Mayberry in center?

        We have no shortage of outfielders in camp. Martinez is not one of them.

  31. It’s frustrating to see this kind of special pleading. For years, people who doubted the obvious value of advanced metrics could point to the fact that is was only slowly making inroads into front offices. Now that that isn’t the case, they desperately cling to their beliefs by telling themselves that quantitative analysis isn’t really analysis, or is only used when a scout can’t be present, or is just some obscure flavor of the month, or pretending that quantitative analysis is only descriptive and not predictive*. None of it is true, and at this point it verges on flat earth type denialism. And it’s a shame to see people who are otherwise sharp commenters stubbornly clinging to such erroneous beliefs.

    *Sure, quantitative analysis does a better job of description than prediction, but SO DOES TRADITIONAL SCOUTING. Prediction is always fraught, always inexact. Ultimately, the argument for quantitative metrics is this: prediction is hard, and you need to use any tool you have to make the best possible predictions. (As a side point, for major league players with an established level of performance, as opposed to prospects and major leaguers without an established level of play, I strongly suspect that stats, as opposed to scouting, has always played the biggest role in player evaluation, as least as to hitting and pitching. At the very least a strong role. It just makes no sense to privilege less sophisticated statistical analysis over PROVEN better methods. There’s NO REASON why any front office should consider RBIs, for example. Even if you believe “clutch” ability is real, a defensible position, there are better ways of measuring it.)

    1. And, yes, some franchises use quantitative analysis more effectively than others. Film at eleven. But is there a GM who is a much of a negative example for advanced metrics as Amaro is for traditional evaluation?.

    2. ok I’m the Hatfields and you’re the McCoys. Let’s take the Phillies and Amaro out of the discussion because its polarizing the debate.

      I’m quite ok with AM or QA whatever you want to call it in the hands of qualified and skilled baseball people. I think I’ve said before I do buy into OBP and OPS and I do like wRC. But don’t try and tell me batting avg isn’t important.

      Most likely I am biased and I don’t particuliary care for Bill James nor do I like the way that those who kneel at his alter some how try to insert him as the holy inventor of baseball. I can watch the game with my own eyes and know who the best players in the game are at their position.

      Baseball players come in many different shapes sizes and forms. Pitchers get hitters out in a number of different ways or they don’t and hence they are not in the league for long. WS teams come in many different styles as well.

      Frankly all I care about is that we have a solid group of baseball talent evaluators. I don’t get my jock twisted in a knot because they don’t have a staff of math nerds running around shoving a bunch of stats in the managers face that don’t make practical sense to how the game is played on the field.

      I’m just curious if the Phillies some how win 90 Games what will you say to that?

      1. DMAR, you can believe all of that and IMO still acknowledge quantitative analysis should and does have an increasingly important role in player evaluation, ALONG WITH traditional evaluation techniques. That’s part of what is so frustrating about these arguments, nothing you are saying really undercuts the value of a role for quantitative analysis. I just think your annoyance at James and some of his acolytes is coloring your point of view.

        James is an interesting character in a lot of ways. One thing to keep in mind about him is that he had no real training in, and, arguably, even aptitude for, advanced statistical analysis. He was hit or miss for sure, and a fairly high percentage of what he wrote doesn’t stand up particularly well. But he had a wide range of insights that were not conventional wisdom at the time, but are now, even among people who otherwise have little time for quantitative analysis. for example, it’s easy to point to someone like Earl Weaver and pretend that an ability to get on base was always highly valued, but that’s revisionist history – sure, some baseball people appropriately valued on base skills, but most did not – one reason why Weaver was so successful he had an “edge” by understanding the value of on base skills. There’s been a sea change on that issue, and James deserves a lot of the credit for that.

        And no one really says that “batting avg isn’t important.” We say, correctly, that a lot of casual fans over value it, and that formerly (not so much any more), it was a (somewhat) over valued by front offices. Of course, in prospect evaluation it tends to be even less important, for sample size and other reasons, but that’s again something where traditional evaluation and advanced metrics agree.

        As for the team winning 90 games, I guess that would depend partly on how it happened. I’ve said many times that, if everyone is healthy, the team could win 88 or 89. 90 is not much more. Given the talent inherited by Amaro & still on the team, or traded for players still on the team, and the payroll available, I wouldn’t give in a medal to him for a 90 win season. Now, if D. Young is an MVP candidate and M. Young hits .330 with mid range power and GG defense, then maybe I’ll need to re-evaluate how I feel about Amaro. 🙂

        On a more serious note, the real test for Amaro will be what happens when the current core is gone. If he wins over a period of time with talent developed or acquired under his watch, obviously that would be very important piece of evidence in his favor.

        1. Fair enough. 🙂

          And I would end on that note, but I wanted to say one last thing about something regarding which I agree with you (and I think most informed stats oriented people also agree with). That’s what you said about not forcing this stuff on managers. All else being equal, I’d love to have a manger who values this stuff, but (a) it has no relevance to the most important part of the job, which is managing 25 diverse, and, typically, high ego personalities, and (b) one insight of modern statistical analysis is that managerial tactical decision making probably doesn’t make a huge difference in most cases, one way or the other, The emphasis on “small ball,” for example, drives me crazy, but only because people over estimate by a huge amount how helpful it can be. But, while it CAN be actively harmful, generally it isn’t THAT harmful in practice (you don’t, for example, see many managers instructing middle of the line up guys to sac bunt, which WOULD be destructive). Same thing with, for example, lineup construction.

          One area which COULD make a big difference is usage of relief aces, but the conventional wisdom is so entrenched that even the managers most open to quantitative analysis don’t buck the trend.

          1. Maybe you caught it on Club House Confidential (that must be your favorite MLB network show) but Friedman and Maddon have that type of relationship and it obvioulsy works for them.

            Brian Kenney loves that relief pitcher idea and its substantiated to some degree but for me personally I want to see ace starters go 7-8 and sometimes 9 innings.

            Two statements I never get “well that’s how we’ve always done it” and “well everyone else is doing it”

          2. Larry I would like to clarify my stance and why i made the comment about the pitchfx and fieldfx. I think i t is important to discern between methods of gathering data and evaluating data that was gathered. When we use technology to help gather data it does not qualify in my mind as advanced metrics.

            Now your point about metrics and their use. I drive home the fact they their main use is to validate/invalidate what scouts have reported because when you are talking about HS kids there are so many variables for these kids that the numbers are basically useless other than to maybe indicate the presence of a tool. Most Decisions need to be made before they have any useful statictics relating to baseball.

            I also believe that most stats guys overstate their importance that their advanced metrics have (RC, WAR…). I am not considering OBP an advanced metric for clarification. I think for the most part these stats have are usefull to us on this site when we are trying to defend our views on why player a > player b, and we are all guilty of cherry picking the stats that support our point of view, but when it comes down to it was it really the WAR or RC that let front offices know that Cabrera, Trout, and Vottto were good baseball players ……. NO it wasn’t. It is pretty stinking obvious who the good players are. Hell you argue this point all of the time because so many people forget how truely dominatining difference making MLB players are in the minor leagues, and for the most part they can dominate completely and consistantly year in year out. When we look at a player like Asche whom most believe can be an avg mlb 3b and how much his season stood out.

            There is certainly an art to constructing a 25 man roster and for the most part the avg and young players who fill out the rosters are the one who can affect what teams get hot at the right times. And we have seen so many different styles win the WS, and the one constant throughout most of baseball has been that Pitching wins of course there are exceptions.

            Now the Metrics that I think that posess value are …….. all of them. There is something that can be derived from all statistics as they give a piece of the story, but none of them alone tell the whole story. There is some context that gets lost with stats, and because no one wants to sift through all the PAs in a game so there is an unwritten understanding that by using averages/percentages we will ignore the extremes (Standard Bell Curve stuff). Just because ratios give a cleaner view of numbers it does not mean that cumulative stats are now not important. RBIs matter and i have not yet seen any argument here that was very convincing that they are not.

            But i am rambling and i am sure some other non-stat guy will jump on this and try to use it to defend their stance on player A whose stats do not support what they think he is/could be and then take the conversation in a different direction. Good day good baseball.

  32. Benny Looper today at the game says Tommy Joseph has a chance to be a 250/260 hitting catcher with power. Thats some optimism.

      1. Why? Because a guy, named Chuck LaMar, came out a few years ago and said something unflattering about Domo. Chuck apparently was asked to leave within a month. The always useful reasoning, ‘philosophical differences’.

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