2011 Draft signing deadline is today

Since people seem to be posting their comments/links in two different places, instead, post everything here. When the deadline has passed and we know who has signed, I will update the draft picks page appropriately.

From what I’ve heard, the Phillies will get Quinn and Walding done, and probably nothing else. Then again, they’ve surprised before, so I’m not writing anyone/anything off until the deadline arrives.

Larry Greene Jr signs
Roman Quinn signs (per his facebook)
Jesen Dygestile-Therrien has signed, no bonus disclosed.
Mitchell Walding signs for $800K.
Braden Shull and Jonathan Knight also signed.

655 thoughts on “2011 Draft signing deadline is today

  1. James-if that’s all the signings still to come, do you consider this a successful signing period, or does it seem like they missed too many of the players you might have thought were signable? Obviously it’s me asking for your opinion as an astute observer, not assuming you know what the FO knows about the negotiations.

    1. it would be very dissappointing if they dont get the rest of them signed in particularly with our recent trades and how little money we have spent thus far…..

      1. I disagree.. I think Larry Greene, Jr has a decent shot at being a very good Power Hitting, 1B prospect (sound familiar?), Tyler Greene is a fascinating SS prospect, I thoroughly did not expect to sign, and consider a major coup to have gotten, add in Quinn, Walding and hopefully1 other above slot player, and I think it’s a hell of a draft. Nobody signs everyone, and this would be a fairly average reasonable percentage of picks for a team to sign.

        1. if only these 4 guys could play on every team in our minors it would be a hell of a draft but they can’t……were arent filling just one team

          1. Not every position on every team is going to be filled with real prospects. Just doesn’t work that way.

        2. A “hell” of a draft? That was 2008. Getting your 1st and 2nd round pick signed should be considered normal…not some exceptional achievement. The 5th round pick told the Phillies before the draft exactly what he expected and they took him anyway. So I am not going to go overboard congratulating them for that signing either. It also should be expected under the circumstances.

          Tyler Greene I will give you…I didn’t expect him to sign. But he signed for $375K. He probably will sign for less than any other HS shortstop in this draft ranked in the Top 200 going into the draft. And the Phillies won’t sign their 6th round pick or their 10th round pick…so he really just takes their place.

          Outside of Tyler Greene, what would make this a “hell” of a draft is to get some of the guys signed from the likes of Ryan Garvey, Braden Shull, Riley Moore, Brandon Pletsch, Scott Tomassetti, Brendon Hayden, Kyle Olsen, etc.

  2. Can someone give a little insight on where these signings go/play? Not just this year, but generally, how does the process work? I understand the system down to low A, but what happens before low A (and presumably with drafted players) is a bit of a mystery to me. I have heard terms such as “rookie ball” and “extended spring training,” but I couldn’t tell you what they mean. Thanks in advance.

    1. GCL (Gulf Coast League) is where many 1st year players go…depending on age and ability. Usually after a guy is signed…especially HS guys…they go to GCL for the last few games of the season (it is already mid-August for most of them) and then usually off to FIL (Florida Instructional League) for indoctrination into the minor league system. This FIL spans from usually September thru October and I think is invitation only for the prospects a team thinks can benefit the most from the extra work. They play against other teams instructional squads.

      That following spring they might be assigned outright to a team…Rookie (GCL), Low A (Williamsport), etc for the minor league season that begins in March / April…or they might be held back in EST (Extended Spring Training) to get some extra work or conditioning on hitting, pitching, fielding, etc. They also might be held back there to rehab them slowly off an injury. In effect, EST fills many of the same functions as FIL, except that I don’t think there is any actual games scheduled…but I might be wrong.

      Some of the more knowledgeable people here might be able to correct or better explain my comments.

      1. Just to add, from my understanding the path for the average draftee (especially HS kids) might be something like…

        – Sign in August
        – Go to GCL for the remaining games of the season
        – Go to FIL (Sep / Oct)
        – Go to EST (Feb – April)
        – Get assigned to a team (GCL, Low A, A, etc)
        – Get promoted or demoted based on performance

        1. Pretty much. Elite guys sometimes skip Short-Season ball and go right from the FIL into Lakewood (Low A ball). Biddle is an example of that. Though he played far more than lots of guys his draft year as he was an early sign.

          1. The GCL is a very low level rookie ball. Its mostly for high school kids who are still very raw. The games are played at the big league spring training complexes. Williamsport is geared more toward newly drafted college kids who would overmatch raw high school kids in the GCL. Williamsport is also for more advanced high school kids, or kids who played in the GCL the year before and are ready for a bigger challenge, but not quite ready for Lakewood.

          2. the short seasons begins just prior to the draft – these teams [GCL-WMPT] rosters are essentially made up of players who were either still in high school or in EST – the players are basically playing a whole season – 1/2 with their high school team [Apr & May] other 1/2 with team that drafted and signed them from [July-Aug] – so the term short season is just that … the point is to get them on the field ASAP

  3. I would be very disappointed if all they get is Quinn and Walding done. I really want(ed) Ryan Garvey done. From notes of others – what he is/was looking for didn’t seem that out of line. Your thoughts?

  4. If they get Quinn and Walding that would about wrap up the A level type guys. I’d consider Garvey and Moore as B level guys, and it would be great to get one of them and a C level or two, but getting Quinn and Walding done would make me feel OK about this draft.

    1. what about Shull a HS 6’6 LHP that throws 90 plus those arent easy to come by….JDT another great arm would have to be considered as well……..

  5. My boss is playing golf (weather permitting) with some of the Phillies ownership/management today. I asked him to razz them a bit about getting more guys signed.

  6. Even though I’ve never seen Ryan Garvey play nor do I have any real knowledge about him other than snippets posted here, I am seriously disappointed by the FO for failing to sign this once in a lifetime talent.

    Its about what I expect out of a club that simply refuses to spend money to improve their on the field product.

    1. I agree NEPP. “We” really need to be better about signing “our” draft picks. “We” should just sign everybody, regardless of cost, because “we” are going to need more trade chips later.

      On a somewhat more serious note, if people out there are actually interested in learning about the draft (not just the Phillies picks) and how it works in general, download the latest BA podcast. It goes a long way toward explaining why L. Greene wasn’t announced until recently and why Quinn probably hasn’t been announced yet even though all signs point to him signing. It also speaks of the Phillies draft in relation to all of MLB and may give some folks on here some perspective on how things actually work.

    2. Damn it all to hell, it’s just not right, how could phillies management not sign that player, what are they, stupid? This is un-f***ing believeable…. He’s the next coming of ryan sandberg but at a different position, maybe they figure they had better not sign him rather then trade him away and getting more grief from us fans. Excellent logic, I commend them!

    3. NEPP, I was the one who posted in the other thread about Garvey. I’ll fully acknowledge that I know nothing of Garvey other than what has been posted here or what I’ve read. From what I’ve read, he sounds like a polished right handed power bat – kind of a right-handed Singelton. We saw the value of Singelton in the Pence deal. Is Garvey assured of becoming even Singelton – absolutely not. But, for $250-300k, it seems like a reasonable gamble.

      I don’t want the Phils to drop $1 million bonuses like Pacman Jones drops ones in a strip club. I’d like to see them take a few more shots on guys who would consider mid-level money.

      For $200-300k, you can get a Dom Brown or Jon Singelton. Or you could get a Julian Sampson. Given the value of the former, I think it’s worth a few more rolls of the dice.

      That said, it’s not my money, so perhaps a bit easier for me to spend it.

  7. Here’s another thing to consider.

    Assuming the Phillies had signed Larry Greene, Quinn and Walding a month ago, and today arrived and we signed Tyler Greene for $375K, a lot of people would have been excited, because he was considered one of the 3 best players we drafted and was considered a tough sign. We didn’t have to wait till deadline day for him or for Giles. Both guys were overslot signings.

    I want the Phillies to spend more money. But I understand how they work, and its worked out so far, so I will refrain from getting too upset. For what its worth, I heard Garvey did not perform all that well in his personal workout.

      1. I hated Steve Garvey, Ron Cey and Davey Lopes as kid. A little part of me is happy I don’t have to root for his kid.

        1. I’m assuming you put your hatred aside for Lopes? I can’t imagine any possible scenario for us to have to cheer for “the Penguin” though!

      1. Clearly it’s the workout combined with Scouting Reports. Perhaps, they saw things in the reports that they wanted to see in person, and upon seeing them, decided against offering a deal yet.

      2. It wouldn’t be rational for them to do that. Either they’re out of money with Quinn and Walding or they did a medical and found something they didn’t like. Green cost a bit more than expected.

        1. What’s not rational about it? If scouts have noted some flaw and upon closer examination that flaw appears to be larger than first glance, why not focus on other players? They only have time to talk to so many guys, this is a rational use of that time.

    1. Exactly. If we sign Quinn and Walding, along with Larry Greene a month ago and waited until today to add Tyler Greene and Giles, I think most would say we did well. Let’s wait and see what happens.

  8. Listen if we leave this draft having signed 3 hs infielders, who all have a shot of staying in the infield in the future then I can’t see how you can label this draft anything but a success. Yeah it would have been nice to have garvey, but Id rather his money go to signing an infielder since we are already loaded with potential outfield prospects. We had no infielder prospects to be really excited about before this draft, Now we have greene,and if we can get walding and quinn too ill be super pumped.

  9. Here goes the rush to defend again…because the MLB club is wildly successful the lowest draft spend in MLB baseball since Amaro took over should be no cause for concern.

    Outside of Jon Singleton, Amaro has been mostly working off of house money in the minor leagues. Mike Arbuckle was running the show when most of those guys were drafted…and when most of core players at the MLB level today were drafted.

    I have full confidence in Amaro at the MLB level, and I think he knows exactly how to pull off well executed trades of minor leaguers for veteran talent (although that might get harder for him when his mentor Ed Wade gets fired in Houston). But I think there are some warning signs appearing in the minors due to such a meager investment there relative to the rest of MLB. He is reaching the point where he not only will have to rely on the draftees of his tenure to trade, but also need to start finding some positional talent in the minors outside of Dom Brown and relief pitching.

    1. You’ve been very consistent in your scathing critique of the Phillies strategy. We understand.
      I assume that you’ve seen all of these guys play, the ones you want the Phillies to spend a lot of money on? Or are you just taking other people’s word for it? Because thats really what all of us are doing. You may think draftee X should just get $500K because the Phillies presumably have the money to burn. But what if they felt he isn’t worth it? Do you routinely spend more money on things than you think they are worth? Try this scenario. Say you have saved up $25,000 to buy a car. This is your max amount. You go car shopping for 3 weeks. You see a lot of different cars. The car you really want is a BMW. It costs $35,000. The other car you really liked was a Honda Civic. It costs $15,000. You saved $25,000 in total. Would you pay $25,000 for the $15,000 Honda Civic? What if you went to pay $15,000 for it, because you knew that was what it was worth, but when you got to the dealership the salesman said “Sorry, the price is now $25,000″….would you pay $25,000 even though you know its worth only $15,000?
      The Phillies are going to spend what they feel is warranted. Their list of guys they’ve let walk away in the last 5 or 6 years in the draft who have turned out to be great signings when re-drafted is very small. I want them to spend more. But they know more about these players than we do. We only have the hype created by BA, BP, PG, and others. They are actually watching these kids play all summer and talking to them. In some cases, the demands of the prospect simply won’t be reasonable, or the Phillies won’t have confidence in the prospect developing.
      No one is blindly defending the Phillies. I think this will be the last draft that follows this structure, as I do believe there will be changes in the next CBA.

      1. My scathing critique is confined to their draft and LA spend. I am not asking them to be the Red Sox, I am asking them to not be the bottom of the barrel. That is not unreasonable. I think their spend stinks.

        If the Phillies spend $4M or less this year, then they will have the lowest spend in MLB during Amaro’s tenure (2009 thru 2011) by a significant margin. Not just the bottom…but probably at the bottom by a couple of million.

        I just don’t see anyway to try and portray the positive aspect of that fact.

        1. Doesn’t make any sense to me either. Our scouts simply can NOT be THAT much better than everyone else. Sure there are examples of teams overspending badly but those exceptions don’t change the rule that money does indeed matter when it comes to the MLB draft. The 2011 draft will almost certainly end up better than the 2010 draft in my opinion but could have really been so much better.

        2. I agree. We’re not really talking of individual cases of overpaying for low value. I do not agree with the car analogies. There are multiple guys the Phils valued in past years that they could not go an extra 10-20% for. And there have been indications that they are either/or drafters. Either we get our top guys OR we go after some lower guys, with a few exceptions. Most of these excpetions were in 2008, when Gillick and his reputation held sway and policy changed. With Amaro, combined with the bigger ML spend, we are returning to skimpy spending. There’s no argument, as Nobody says, that they are not in bottom spend group. It’s said Nobody repeats himself, we all know what he stands for. Then acknowledge his points, it’s that simple. Phils spend low. The draft is a good investment with likely good ROI if you invest wisely. We have traded many guys and need to replenish. This is a good year for fairly high-ceiling HS guys. We drafted them. We make poor decisions on investing ML $$ on hope-and-prayer veterans. If we don’t want Nobody to keep saying what he thinks,tell him he’s correct and end the discussion. If you argue against him, he will repeat himself to defend a strong position. Why not?

        3. You guys do realize that money is money right and isn’t unlimited? I would rather spend extra money on Pence and on getting hamels signed than on signing unknown talent who may make it years from now. We all want them to spend everywhere but I question how realistic that is.

        4. You literally are the most annoying person on here & Philliesphans. I like to check both places for draft signing info, and bout place you make 800 posts a week about how the Phillies are cheap and terrible. And everything’s a disappointment, and it’s a bad draft unless they sign everyone.

          Just STFU

      2. PP, I think there are a couple of other things in play here. If this is the last draft that will be structured like this, it may be the last time you can sign overslot guys and make up for picking easier signs in the early rounds. It may also be the last time that teams near the bottom of the draft (good major league teams) can make up for low draft position by signing overslot guys later on. If that’s the case, this would be a good draft for the Phillies to overspend. By doing so, they could strengthen their farm system for the next five to six years when they’ll be constrained by low picks due to strong major league finishes.

        The other thing is this: When they’re bumping up against the salary cap/luxury tax at the major league level, there is as yet no penalty for overspending on the draft. This will likely change soon. So, since they’ve proven willing to spend up to the luxury tax but not beyond, spending on the draft may mitigate the need to keep upping the payroll in the outyears 3-6.

        This draft seems like it may be the last time that overspending will be allowed and the last time to fortify your organization in a way that will last well into Rube’s tenure as GM. Seems like a perfect time to load up the wagon and spend a couple million extra before you simply can’t anymore. If they don’t grab a few extra talents, at a minimum, they may have missed a golden opportunity.

      3. The hypo you use is not helpful. An analogy to a Pharma company is more accurate. A pharma company invests a certain amount of its gross revenues every year in R&D. A large Pharma will literally have thousands of potential drugs being researched every year. The amount it spends on R&D is pretty much set, largely based on a historical analysis of investment / return, not on whether any individual drug deserves such R&D investment. The executives rely on the people on the ground to invest the R&D wisely.

        The Phillies could (and in my opinion should) use a similar strategy. They should tell their scouts we have a certain budget, and leave it up to the scouts to find the players who best deserve that investment. They are not limited to saying we have x money, and must choose between Player A and Player B (as in your hypo). It’s a matter of having faith in the process.

        1. Moreover, and acknowledging that the process in baseball is not as blind as in Pharma, if the phillies have saved 35K, they should be able to tell their scouts to find a player who deserves that and have faith that over time that investment (in the process, not the player) will pay off.

          If not, maybe they need new scouts (I tend to think they get a good return on investment, so probably not).

        2. This basically what they do currently. Pharma’s routinely drop drugs because the R&D costs are too high, or the potential earnings not strong enough to make it worthwhile. The Phillies may have decided that Garvey is an Orphan drug. He’ll be successful, but not successful enough to make the investment worthwhile.

      4. If it’s a good bet there will be changes in the next CBA, don’t you think guys like Garvey, Therrien, Moore, and Schull would be more likely to sign this year and avoid a hard slotting scale in future drafts?

      5. Agree—–under the next CBA, once the Latin market talent is involved in a draft, be it integrated into the existing First Year Player Draft or their own separate Latin draft, then the playing field becomes equal for all clubs. Quality scouting becomes paramount

  10. Just saw on Larry Greene’s Facebook page that he “is officially a member of the Phillies” as of last night. Just saying.

  11. @PhoulBallz Phoul Ballz
    Expect news of the #Astros PTBNL to hit soon. Probably not a surprise if it’s OF Domingo Santana, another top 10 #Phillies prospect. #MiLB

    1. Jay of phoulballz.com posted on his twitter feed that Domingo Santana has confirmed he’s heading to Houston.

      So umm yah… Might want to think about spending money money today Phillies because you just traded 2 of your top 4 hitting prospects to Houston.

    1. That’s what we thought when they made the trade to acquire Blanton. The system seemed totally bare at that point and yet, with all the trades, the system is now in way better shape than it was at then. Patience.

      1. I personally didn’t think that when Blanton was traded. I don’t remember reading that from the majority of the reactions. I do think it now though that Amaro has either traded away or called up over 30 players in the last 2 1/2 to 3 years that at one time or another were part of Top 30 lists themselves. One thing I am absolutely postive of is that he didn’t find that many replacement prospects in the last 3 drafts he has presided over.

        And with respect, it isn’t sound logic to use an example of a clear overreaction (view of the system after the Blanton trade) to then assume that the overreaction at that time can never be true in the future.

        1. No GM is going to find 30+ replacement players in 3 drafts. If you think any team gets 10 ML prospects in each draft just by spending enough money then you’ll never be satisfied.

          I would also say that its fairly logical to assume that an overreaction will never be true or it wouldn’t be an overreaction. You’re trying to justify the broken clock theory by arguing that by saying it’s 12:00 constantly you’ll be right twice each day. I believe Catch’s point is that we’ve heard this song several times before.

          1. 3up3kkk says:
            August 15, 2011 at 1:10 PM
            No GM is going to find 30+ replacement players in 3 drafts. If you think any team gets 10 ML prospects in each draft just by spending enough money then you’ll never be satisfied.

            I agree with you. Of course that can’t be done. I know that. I certainly don’t expect that. But my point is to suggest the farm system and current approach is fine with the current drain rate does not seem logical to me. In just under 3 years Amaro has traded away most of the best prospects from 7 years worth of drafts and LA signings.

            The farm system is still loaded at relief pitcher…which is actually good…because that is the one area the MLB club will need help in the near term (after Lidge, Contreras, and maybe even Madsen leave). The issue I am talking about won’t really even begin to be an issue until probably after the 2012 or 2013 seasons.

            Maybe by then the situation will have been addressed. We’ll see.

            1. And we have reached some level of agreement. In a couple more years we will actually see if Amaro’s approach to building an organization is a successful one or not.

              Until then, claiming his approach to be a failure is premature.

        2. … and maybe 3 of them will end up becoming stars in this league.

          I’d rather have the best team in baseball than the best farm system. Prospects serve 2 purposes:

          1) Develop them and build your franchise around them.
          2) Trade them for established big league talent.

          The Phillies aren’t the Kansas City Royals, The Pittsburgh Pirates, etc. They already accomplished that first purpose. Now, they’re using the farm system to trade for big league talent that helps them win NOW, when they know for sure they can contend.

    2. And quickly making the major league team the best one in baseball…

      Who have the Phillies traded away that’s going to make them wish they didn’t?

      1. IMHO:

        D’Arnaud
        Gose
        Drabek
        Gonzales, Gio
        I think one of Singleton, Cosart, Santana will be missed, though that’s a crapshoot to predict.

        1. Gio Gonzales was Pat Gillick, the Hall of Famer… who made the worst trade (arguably) of the decade for the Phillies. I’m just saying that for the Ruben Amaro haters here.

          I miss D’Arnaud and I think he’s probably going to end up being the best prospect we gave up.

          Watching the Blue Jays in like 10 years may end up being pretty tough now that I think about it.

          1. By that time one or more of those players traded to Topronto will want to return to his “roots” and will sign as a free agent with the Phils

    1. I don’t have a problem with Nobody pointing out what Amaro is not good at. He’s been pretty fair to point out that Amaro’s management of the major league roster has been pretty deft. Boston does both. I’d like to have a competitive team to root for in 5 years too.

      1. I don’t have a problem with it either if I were convinced that Nobody actually knew if Amaro is good at handling the draft process or not. Its too early to tell how successful he’s been at that portion of his job. We will find out in a couple of more years when the players from the first couple of drafts have a chance to make impacts.

        What I don’t get is that one one hand I hear that the Phillies under Amaro have drafted nothing but on the other, I hear that the loss of Singleton (2009 draft) in the Pence deal was a steal for the Astros. How could it be a steal for the Astros if nobody drafted & signed during the Amaro regime is any good

        To date, It would appear that both Singleton and Zeid were successful picks from 2009 since they were used to get a ML regular.

        1. 3up3kkk,

          You are not hearing me clearly then.

          I never said Amaro can’t draft. I believe Marti Wolever and the Phillies scouts are among the best in MLB. What I said is that Amaro is not being aggressive enough with the draft budget and he is not being nearly as aggressive re-stocking the minors as he is being aggressive at trading them away.

          Just to be clear, I think Amaro is correct to view this as a very unique window in franchise history and I support him trading away prospects to surround guys like Halladay, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Oswalt, etc with as much help as possible. Once these guys are gone, there will be in inevitable step down in performance at the MLB level. But how far down will depend on the quality of the prospects in the minors to help ease the transition.

          1. Yes, I hear you quite clearly. You’re position is that Amaro needs to spend more in the draft to compensate for the aggressive trade approach he is taking. The issue I have with that position is that you are making certain assumptions without knowledge.

            1) What is his draft budget
            2) Is the Phillies draft budget separate from their overall operating budget? If not, then Amaro has made a decision to shift focus to maximizing the ML payroll. That may be short-sighted or it may not. It’s simply too early to tell.
            3) For the guys who don’t sign, what was their asking price? The Phillies aren’t the only team that doesn’t sign a number of their picks, including high ones.

            As PP outlined clearly in an earlier post, the Phillies are in a different situation than are most other teams because of their payroll capabilities. Fact of the matter is that they can fill holes by spending FA $$$ when they don’t have a prospect ready.

            When the Red Sox needed to get better, they didn’t call up prospects, they signed FA’s like Drew, Matusaka, Jenks, Scutaro, Wheeler, Lackey and Crawford or they traded key prospects for Gonzalez. Seems to be the same approach being taking by the Phillies.

            1. But just about all of those FA signings by Epstein have turned out to be nothing more but a huge loss of $$$. The core of their team (Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury,Bard, Papelbon, Lester, Buckholz,etc) is still from their farm system or via trades for prospects. They got better this year by trading for Gonzalez, Saltalamacchia,and maybe Bovard, plus bringing up Reddick. As we all know, they’ve been spending around $10 mil/year in draft and several million more on international players for the past 3-4 years, while the Phillies are spending about 3 mil/yr. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

    2. HAHAHAHAHAHA

      I’d take Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, and Hunter Pence over ANY player we traded. They haven’t done anything in the major leagues. They do nothing to help us win now.

      1. This. While this may be a bit of a simpification, the bottom line is Amaro has used the trading of minor league players to 1) win us a WS; and 2) give us a 2-3 year window to win 1-2 more WS’s (between now and 2013). While we have traded away some talented players who either might be helping us now or in the future, it is hard to argue with the results – if you believe that the primary goal of Amaro is to 1) win championships and 2) fill CBP every night.

        Now, if this team does not win at least one more WS, and if this team resembles the Mets or Cubs in 2014-15, then this has been a failure. We’ll just have to wait and see.

        1. You should take AMaro’s name out of the beginning of the first paragraph…it should read “the Phillies have used the trading of minor league players…”

        2. Do we count a Rule 5 guy as under the guise of ‘drafting expertise’? i.e Shane Victorino
          Or off the ‘trash heap’ selection, as Jayson Werth?

    3. Yeah, he’s really given us the bum’s rush. We gave up a load of prospects and all we got was Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence. What a rip off!!!!

      1. Feels like Sesame Street….one of these names just doesn’t belong……Hunter Pence does not belong in the same sentence as the thre aces. He’s a MLB average OF in everyway, stop trying to make him out to be some superstar.

        1. 9th in BA
          tied for 4th in hits
          tied for 5th in doubles
          10th in rbi
          and even top 20 in OPS (10th among OF’s)

          And while he may not be Ichiro out there, he is 3rd among active NL OFs in range factor, and will lead the league in assists for the 3rd year in a row. With the $$$ that Wade threw in, we will be paying the guy $25 m for the next three Septembers – a ridiculous number IMO when you think of what guys like Werth, Ibanez, Bay and others are getting from other teams for being a middle-of-the-order corner OF.

          We gave up a lot for the guy, but – especially when you look at the landscape out there, IMO – he is far from an “average OF”….especially when you think of what THIS team needs for the next 2-3 seasons. He was a B-12 shot to a team that was coasting to October again…this is a Mike Sweeney who can still play every night at a high level, and I think that he will help make sure that everyone is awake once the post-season gets here.

          1. I’ll start with 2008, his first season in which he had enough at bats to qualify for the batting title
            2008
            BA – 38th
            Hits – 27th
            2B – 26th
            HR – T 16th
            RBI – 26th
            OPS – 38th
            Assists – T 2nd

            2009
            BA – 27th
            Hits – 14th
            2B – T 46th
            HR – T 16th
            RBI – 27th
            OPS – 24th
            Assists – 1st

            2010
            BA – 23rd
            Hits – 10th
            2B – T 31st
            HR – T 13th
            RBI – T 9th
            OPS – 31st
            Assists – T 13th

            BTW he’s tied for 6th in OF assists this year.
            Combined WAR of 10.8 with 3.5 coming this year. Which means he averaged 1.8 WAR in 4 years in Houston.(3.3 his rookie year). Average player.

            So yes, he’s having a good year. Yes he fits the team nicely. Yes I’m glad we got him. But it drives me nuts when people put him in the same catagory as the pitchers because he is clearly not. It was a sellers market and Houston sold high because of the dearth of bats on the market. I’ll give you that some of these stats may go up playing for a higher quality team but the guy hasn’t been a star.

            Please don’t get me wrong, I like the pick-up, I like the energy he brings but if he reverts to his career norms (which his freakishly crazy BABIP suggest) we’re right back to ‘average’ RF, and you don’t give up your top 2 prospects and another of your top 10 for that.

    1. Why do you and other posters act like these prospects are your first born children and we can’t part with them? The MLB team needs should always take center stage over the minor leagues.

  12. Thought I’d give a little bit of history. I know many people are disappointed about the presumed failure to sign more high schoolers and have already labeled this draft a disappointment, but you can’t grade a draft at this point. How many draftee’s from a given draft actually make an impact in the big leagues.
    1996 – Adam Eaton (1st Round) Jimmy Rollins (2)
    1997 – J.D Boo (1), Randy Wolf (2) Derrick Turnbow (5) Johnny Estrada (18)
    1998 – Pat Burrell (1) Jason Michaels (4) Ryan Madson (9) Geoff Geary (15) Nick Punto (21)
    1999 – Brett Myers (1) Joe Saunders, assuming he’s the same guy pitching for the dback (5) Marlon Byrd (10) Kameron Loe (39)
    2000 – Chase Utley (1)
    2001 – Gavin Floyd (1) Ryan Howard (5)
    2002 – Cole Hamels (1) Scott Mathieson (17)
    2003 – Michael Bourn (4), Kyle Kendrick (7) Brad Ziegler (20) signed but later released
    2004 – J.A. Happ (3)
    2005 – Josh Outman (10) Vance Worley (not signed)
    2006 – Kyle Drabek (1) Domonic Brown (20) Kyle Gibson (twins prospect i believe, 36th round) not signed
    I’ll stop here because now you are getting into prospects that still could turn out. If you draft one impact player per year, you are doing pretty well. And keep in mind a lot of these impact guys were higher picks (Floyd, Hamels, Utley, Myers, Burrell). The Phils dont draft that high any more. So while many are complaining that there are a ton of players they are missing out on, if they are confident on a few of these guys, thats a great draft. If Green(e) x 2 and Quinn or walding make an impact, that is a fantastic draft. Yes the Phillies have drafted more high schoolers recently (Colvin, Cosart) but keep in mind that none of these players have actually succeeded in the majors yet, which is what is most important.

    1. True. But from 1996 to 2002 the Phillies had an incredible run of draft success…especially from Round 1 through Round 10.

      Amaro has only had 3 drafts so far under his belt and I would suggest his record for getting talented overslot guys signed outside of the first 2 or 3 rounds is not good.

      So far Brodie Greene, Andew Susac, and Keenyan Walker were re-drafted much higher then picked by the Phillies and either signed / or will sign for even more than they wanted from the Phillies. These guys represent lost opportunities. The jury is still out on guys like Jake Stewart, Scott Frazier, Brenton Allen, Daniel Palka, Jonathan Paquet, James Hodgskin, etc.

      In fact the only overslot non-signing during the Amaro regime that seemed like the generally correct call was John Hinson.

      It isn’t talent evaluation that is preventing these guys from getting signed…it is about the self imposed budget that is preventing them from getting signed. Keenyn Walker said he wasn’t even offered a contract until the last day of the signing period (when Scott Frazier fell through). Ryan Garvey is saying the same thing. Marti Wolever confirmed the Phillies strategy over the weekend in his comments to Paul Hagen.

      It is just a frustrating situation that seems penny wise and pound foolish. I get it that the MLB club is doing fantastic. I love what Amaro does at the MLB level. I think he is going to be proven as short sighted eventually due to his approach in the minors. It isn’t his trading away guys that is the problem. It is that he is not aggressive enough at replenishing a pipeline he is draining rather quickly. I think the writing on the wall has been there for everyone to see for over 12 months now.

      We’ll see.

      1. But that’s kind of my point. The “incredible draft success” for those years yielded usually only 1 at most impact player, and then we can debate the meaning of impact. And most of those picks were in the first half of the first round. People are getting upset that the overslot guys aren’t getting signed, but that didn’t burn us before. That list is of all the guys were drafted, including those who may have gotten traded away. The point is that we really, really, can’t say anything at this moment about this years draft. If they hit on one or two of these guys, they are in great shape. There are players we think will be great, but we don’t know. and there are players who might fly under the radar and surprise later.
        At the same time, I agree with you on many levels. They could spend more money on draft picks and I would rather have continued success over the long haul then a great run adn then back tto the mediocrity and terribleness of the mid 90’s to mid 2000’s. That being said, we don’t kow what the “great” draft of 2008 will actually produce. It could happen that in 5 years we will look back on this draft and shake our heads, but until then it is a little hard to judge.

        1. When the Phillies were picking 1st overall, or in the Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 most of those years, the “overslot” guys in the later rounds didn’t matter as much. Now picking at the bottom of every round the opportunity to draft talent in later rounds that fell due to their signing demands takes a greater significance.

      2. Like every other business, the Phillies have a fairly set budget that Amaro needs to abide by. The high cost of the MLB club, may simply constrain his cash available for the draft. You can’t spend what you don’t have and, my guess, is that Ruben doesn’t have the funds in his budget to handle the draft the way you’re asking. Perhaps were Ibanez’s high contract not on the books and he didn’t have so much money tied up in Howard, Lee, Oswalt and Halladay, he could spend on the draft.

    2. Getting a few impact players at the major league level out of the draft is certainly an accomplishment. However, it is only part of the picture when valuing a draft. Lets say that Jason Knapp and Jared Cosart both completely blow out their arms before the end of the season. While they won’t have an impact at the ML level, they were both components of deals to acquire big league talent. For a team operating like the Phils right now, finding tradeable commodities in the draft has as much value as finding MLB contributors.

      1. I don’t think that’s Nobody’s complaint though. It’s not so much what Amaro has traded away, but what he has stocked the farm system with via the draft to replenish it. There’s definitely a valid argument to be made about viewing prospects as a commodity and trying to maximize their value while they are prospects since there’s no guarantee they achieve MLB success. The argument is that Amaro hasn’t restocked the farm system adequately because of underfunding the draft while at the same time trading away the Phillies top prospects. It’s sort of like player development wise the Phillies are living beyond their means in a way.

      2. I get that, but I don’t even see those types of players (that I’m aware of) on the list of players the Phillies previously drafted. Granted, that could be why they were so horrible for awhile

      3. “Lets say that Jason Knapp and Jared Cosart both completely blow out their arms before the end of the season.”

        I hope Knapp fully recovers but half of this hypothetical situation might have already happened.

    3. Ahh…perspective. Thanks for that. This is my first draft really paying attention and it’s great to see the different perspectives on a lot of things. That being said, I hope they throw a large boatload of money at Ryan Garvey this evening. I have no good reason to think he’ll be great, but he does have a nice looking swing and a pretty special pedigree. And RHB with power are nice to have around.

    4. That list makes me want to cry, seeing all of the eventually solid players we traded away. I really do not like Ed Wade.. as the Phillies GM that is. I like him a lot as the Astros GM 😉

  13. I guess it is hard for the doubters in the group, of which I have to say I fall on the side of, to understand the dynamics of this situation as it is being portrayed. We, meaning the fans, (I now feel it necessary to define “we” at every turn lest the wordsmiths out there leap to the attack) are watching a ball club at the major league level spend $178 million in player salary this year. I applaud that and give thanks to the baseball Gods for shining on me as a fan of this team. That being said, we, the fans, want it to continue. We, the fans, know that one of the biggest reasons for this success has been the organization’s farm system. The FS produced Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Ruiz etc. Further, the FS produced Blanton, Lidge, Lee the first time, Doc, Oswalt and Pence. No one can argue that without the FS, we, the fans, would not have this wonderful team to root for. I now look at the FS and the draft as a way to maintain all that has been achieved. I recognize that I am not spending my money yadda yadda yadda. However, it is confusing to me that a team scouts a player for 6 months, a year or more then drafts him and in many cases knows what it will take to sign him and then does not offer the necessary money, Further, when the dollars discussed ie. $300k for Garvey are compared to the $178 MILLION that is spent on just player salaries, I cannot help but say $300k seems like a bargain unless they decided their scouts were wrong and that they do not want the player at all. It does not compute for me that the Org. could have wanted him for $200k and have been unwilling to pay an extra $100k to meet his $300k requirement. These major league clubs toss $100k around like it is nothing. Maybe they should do away with the catered lunches in the clubhouse and use the cash on an extra draft pick or two. To me, in my novice opinion, if they draft these guys and they believe they are true prospects, the FS and the Org. as a whole would benefit greatly from adding 2-3 $200-$500k signing bonus guys each year. I doubt that would smash their Org. budget and would likely produce a certain percentage of additional trade fodder or cheap talent that would ultimately either save them money or bring in talent.

  14. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Mike Arbuckle leave when Amaro became GM and not him? So every draft under Amaro has been without Arbuckle? I think when you had Arbuckle under Gillick you had someone more willing to listen to the needs of the scouting director and allow him to have more freedom. I think with Wolever under Amaro you have someone being told “Ok you can’t spend more than $4mil on the draft. Have at it.”

  15. Wright & Overbey will not be signed…
    http://www.csnphilly.com/08/15/11/Phils-sign-top-draft-pick-Greene/landing_onthepharm.html?blockID=549120&feedID=2571

    Second-rounder Roman Quinn, a prep outfielder from Florida, remained unsigned, as did fifth-rounder Mitch Walding, a prep shortstop from California. The Phils have opted not to sign sixth-rounder Zach Wright, a catcher from East Carolina, and 10th-rounder Jake Overbey, a prep shortstop from Tennessee.

    Ryan Garvey, a 15th-round selection and son of former big leaguer Steve Garvey, remains a possibility though he is committed to USC. The deadline for signing players is today.

  16. I remember when it used to be if you talked about the major league players on the Phillies in comments you were told this is PhuturePhillies and not CurrentPhillies. How come now it seems like every-time the limited funding of the farm system is criticized it goes into talking about how good the MLB club is? Or when prospects being traded away?

    I realize you can’t completely separate the two, but I feel like if anywhere people who like prospects or wants to see a strong farm system should be able to talk about that and not get shot down by MLB arguments it should be on here.

    I love seeing a homegrown prospect come up who you’ve watched play at Lakewood, Reading, Scranton(well now LHV) and see them succeed on the MLB level. Is it really being that unreasonable to be upset that Ruben Amaro has allocated an extra $2m-$3m to each draft to make the chances of that happening in the future higher?

    I think this year he’s been shown how much of a waste it is to pay guys like Danny Baez or JC Romero millions of dollars when you can just plug in relievers from your farm system. Hopefully that’ll make him think twice about paying some RP’s in their 30s millions of dollars out of the 2012 or 2013 budgets. Maybe the 2012/2013 drafts benefit from that? who knows.

    1. FlyByNight:

      Nobody is shooting anybody down. Watching guys like Gio Gonzales pitch well is a drag…but it is not like every guy they traded is ripping it up. I would guess that Drabek, Singleton, D’Arnaud, Villar and ohers all have a shot to be great MLers as well.

      Or they can be Michael Taylor.

      Or Jason Knapp.

      Watching Stutes, Bastardo and Worley all step up should give us ALL some sense of confidence that these guys know what they are doing with drafting and development…and the fact that, even with the volume of guys that they have traded, they were still able to pull valuable pieces out of the minors to help them win.

      I view that as FABULOUS – the best of both worlds…. Impact guys on the team as well as resources to get other things we needed. As I said in another post, if they do not win at least one more ring with this core, and they look like the Cubs or Mets in 2014-15, then this entire program of resource management and use was a waste. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  17. Wow. Ed wade got killed for not trading away prospects to make the big club a winner, now raj gets killed for trading away prospects to make the big club a winner. I don’t understand what some of you guys want??? A world series win and the greatest minor league system in history every year? Reality has to come into play sometime right??

    1. he’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. he’d be getting crucified right now if we didn’t have Pence on the team.

    2. Amaro is not getting criticized by me for trading guys away. I have said a number of times I think he is correct that this is a very unique window in franchise history. Guys like Howard, Halladay, Rollins, Utely, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels, Ruiz, etc all being on the same team in their prime at the same time is a once in a generation type of event.

      Amaro should do everything possible to maximize the talent of the roster at the MLB level…even if that means trading away good prospects in the minors to do it.

      But someday this window will close. And when it does the minors are going to have some legit, top shelp positional talent to fill the void. If all the best of the future gets traded away for now, without getting replenished as fast as they are being shipped off to other teams, that drop in performance at the MLB will be hard and steep.

      The best way for RA to prevent that would be to be more aggressive adding prospects in the draft and in LA. What is preventing this is money. He doesn’t have to get crazy…but he doesn’t have to be at the very bottom of MLB spend either.

      1. They aren’t going to over pay kids ridiculous amounts of money unless they feel like they are worth it.

        1. As long as you understand that the term “overpay” for the Phillies means something entirely different from many of the 29 other teams in MLB.

          And I wish this argument was just about kids they might have to “over pay.” It is also about guys they draft that don’t even get offers from the Phillies because the Phillies self imposed hard draft budget prevents them from even making offers once they hit their budget number.

          Not that a budget is a bad thing. Everybody has one. The problem is that the Phillies draft budget is at the bottom of MLB and seems to be rather inflexible.

          1. Exactly. You restock the farm either to trade guys, or to bring them up and have them play. The hard (and low) draft spend is limiting both the guys we sign AND the guys we draft. We certainly could have taken a few more high tools guys if we knew the money was or could be there.

    3. What on Earth are you talking about? Ed Wade got killed FOR trading away prospects for washed up veterans, among other things. He depleted the farm system and it had to be completely replenished under Gillick and Arbuckle.

      Did you even watch the Phillies before they made the playoffs for the first time in over a decade in 2007?

      1. Did you even watch them?

        The only Ed Wade deals that dealt legitimate prospects for veterans was the Andy Ashby deal (Adam Eaton, Carlton Lower, and Steve Montgomery), Millwood for Estrada, and a couple of borderline deals (Duckworth, Buchholz, and Ezekiel Astacio for Billy Wagner, Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, and a PTBNL for Eric Milton, Josh Hancock and Anderson Machado for Todd Jones.) The problem was mediocre-to-poor drafting in those years. They were able to get a few stars but the depth was severely lacking. The Phillies had no real farm system to deplete.

        1. I’ve been following every Philly team since I was walking. I know how bad the depth of the farm system was.

          The point is, anybody who has watched, like you and I have, knows that Ed Wade traded most of the only legitimate prospects he ever drafted, with a few exceptions, and there was no reluctance on his part to trade prospects for washed up veterans. The combination of the two is why our system had to be replenished in the first place.

          1. Tp,who were the legitimate prospects that Ed wade drafted and traded away, that you have a problem with?

        2. The phils had young guys like utley,hamels,myers,Howard too. Ed just didn’t pull the trigger on those trades. Which looking back was the right move.

          1. You forget Madson. The best thing Ed Wade never did was Utley and Madson for Zito, or was it Hudson? It would be pretty tough looking at a 2005 Wild Card banner if he had pulled the trigger on that.

        3. That Eric Milton trade was pretty bad, Silva and Punto were/are productive major leaguers.

          What about Marlon Byrd for Inning Endy Chavez? Wade also deserves to get blasted for the Schilling and Rolen deals.

  18. FANS REMEMBER TROPHIES NOT PROSPECTS.

    EVERYTHING the Phillies organization does is and SHOULD BE geared toward the major league club winning NOW, not 3, 4, 5 years from now. Would you rather be fans of the Padres or Astros and your organization constantly peddling “Wait til next year!” and the perennial myth of a “bright future”?

    http://espn.go.com/espn/commentary/story/_/page/bryant-110803/mlb-trades-stars-prospects-fair-fans

    RAJ seems to be making excellent decisions up and down the organization–i.e. Hunter Pence for a relatively low arbitration $ number the next 2 years(if they don’t get him to ink a fair deal) compared to Jason Werth’s albatross of a contract and abysmal production. THE GOAL IS NOT HAVING A TOP RATED FARM SYSTEM YEAR-IN AND YEAR-OUT, IT’S HOISTING WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP TROPHIES. Sticking with the Pence deal, Singleton and Cosart MIGHT(say 10-15% chance?) become All-Stars 4-5 years down the line. Hunter Pence is an All-Star RIGHT NOW and will help us immensely in a push for our 2nd title in 4 years–I know this is Howard’s time of year, but doesn’t he seems extra Penski these days? As far as draft spends and the minor leagues, the draft is at best a calculated gamble and those with the most information and savvy have the best chance of success projecting a kid’s talent, makeup, and just how remote his chance is of making it to The Show. Even so, NOBODY knows how an 18-22 year old kid will pan out at the pro level and the Phillies scouts know a hell of a lot more than we, or even the people at BA do. If Singleton and Cosart were true prodigies ala ARod, Ken Griffey Jr., or Strassberg(think the Nats are bummed about the fortune they spent on the most “sure fire” prospect in the last 20 years?), Singleton would be patrolling left field at The Bank this very evening supplanting Raul’s pedestrian numbers and Cosart would be the 5th starter, not Worley.

    Up and down the organization, RAJ gets the players he wants, on his terms, and for his price. This is what I want in my General Manager. Don’t you?

    1. This is all well and good, but it misses the point. Not all prospects are going to fail. And the Phillies shouldn’t simply be trying to win this year. But what people don’t really take in to account is that the Phillies don’t flush away prospects on rental players. They trade for guys they have control over. And with the Lee trade to Seattle (which we’re not discussing again in detail, its been done), Amaro traded him because he only had 1 year of control left, and he thought the Phillies couldn’t afford him.

      Teams lose their “window” because they trade away great prospects for 3 month rentals, then end up with nothing. The Phillies resources at the major league level, as I’ve discussed in great detail previously, will allow them to compete even after the current core group of players retires/moves on. There will be no huge dropoff/firesale/barren run unless people stop going to games, watching on tv and buying merchandise. The farm system is not barren now. In fact, considering the number of trades made in the last 3 years, its still in excellent shape. Could it be better? Possibly. But prospect status changes so frequently. At this time next year, a new group of guys may have taken a big leap forward. At the same time, maybe Singleton still isn’t hitting for power, maybe Cosart is injured, and maybe Santana is still striking out in 35% of his plate appearances, while the Phillies are making a run at their 6th straight division title and another pennant/world series.

      Prospects are important, but they serve multiple purposes. The Phillies should try and infuse as much talent in to the system as possible, but they won’t pay over the odds for it.

      1. Clearly prospects serve a dual purpose as both young talent you develop to star for the major league club down the road OR as currency to acquire the major league players you need NOW and control for a number of years(Ruben’s philosophy about no rental players is absolutely the right one). I really hope that the Greenes, Quinn(assuming he signs), et. al. end up starring for the Phillies as I (and most fans probably) really love it when home grown kids like Howard, Rollins, Utley, Hamels, etc. go through the system and end up heroes on the big club. Recently, the Phils have done and excellent job using lesser prospects to acquire big-time talent while simultaneously hanging on to the kids they like the most(Brown, Worley) and who are ALREADY major league players with the best chance of becoming stars. So overall, the organization’s ability to target and gamble financially on the kids in the draft that they think have the best shot of becoming stars has been highly successful. The method: 1) Keep the kids you like the most as they’re cheap, controllable, and the future 2) Use the kids you like less to acquire the major leaguers you want/need NOW 3) Keep making small-seeming but savvy moves like Golson-for-Mayberry(he’s officially our 4th outfielder, probably for years to come) 4) Keep winning so money continues to pour in from The Bank and the TV contract so that there’s never a real “down cycle”.

  19. “fanbase is so unbelievably stupid” – to criticize any deal that sends lower level prospects for a much needed right-handed hitting OF’er who hits for average and power? You’re right, the fanbase is stupid; since we’re all being honest here

  20. If not signing JC Romero and putting $1.5m to $2m more into the farm system is risking a World Series trophy then I’ll gladly take that risk. I love that this team is competitive and I don’t want to see this team fall off a cliff because Amaro went stingy on the draft budget. The Red Sox have recognized the need to do both. Spend on the MLB level and the amateur draft/international level. The Yankees are on a level nobody else can reach, but I think emulating the Red Sox (or close to it) is within the Phillies financial resources.

  21. Also, please. Lets focus this post on the deadline signings. There are plenty of other posts on this site to debate the Pence trade, the Santana inclusion, and everything else. I’m not really in the mood to have to sit here and delete 15 comments an hour.

    1. well i heard no on walding he is wanting too much…..quinn is a yes……working on theisen , and shull….thats the latest

      1. Just to be clear, Mitchell Walding told the Phillies before the draft that he wanted at least 2nd round money to sign…maybe even late 1st round money. The Phillies drafted him anyway in Round 5.

        1. OK – another false choice preference question

          A – Mitch Walding
          B – Braden Shull and Jesen Dygestile-Therrien

          1. That’s a tough one for me. I don’t even know Therrien from a hole in the ground.

            But if forced into another artificial choice created by the Phillies budget I think I go pitching over the MI since Tyler Greene is already in the fold . I really wanted Walding and Greene out of this class. I never expected Overbey to sign, but I thought the other 2 might get done. It sucks to only get 1 of the 3 high ceiling HS guys (Walding, Overbey, Greene).

            I am a fan of drafting and signing large framed LHP so Shull was another key target in this draft, and as Blue Bat Day has effectively argued, this draft is a little light on pitching so far.

        2. This may or may not be true. One other thing that I am pretty sure is true…18 year old kids have been known to change their minds.

          Look, lots of kids said before the draft that they are going to ask for a certain amount. Danny Holtzen, the 2nd pick in the draft, has apparently asked for $12-13M. He isn’t going to get that. It’s called a negotiation.

          1. Yes, I get that. But either way when a kid tells you before the draft he is looking for 2nd round money, maybe late 1st round money, that sounds like a difficult negotiation.

            I would feel better if the Phillie had a better track record under Amaro for getting overslot deals done the size Walding is asking for.

  22. Please forgive me, as I’m not as versed as some of the others that post here, and my question is not meant to incite anyone but I’ve seen in a number of posts that the Phillies are referred to as a bottom dweller when it comes to draft spending. I honestly have no way know if this is true or not and was wondering where someone can look to see the “draft budgets” of not only our Phils but the other major league teams as well.

    1. BA covers draft bonus spent by team from 2008 thru 2010 here. Phillies are 3rd from the bottom overall, and that is even including their $6.8M spend in 2008.

      http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2010/08/bonus-expenditures-2008-10/

      If Amaro only allows a spend of $4M or so this year again, it is likely that the Phillies spend from 2009 thru 2011 will put them at the bottom of MLB by a significant amount. This does not include Latin American spending, which the Phillies are also near or at the bottom of.

      The 2008 draft and the $6.8M spent by Pat Gillick and Mike Arbuckle had a huge impact on the minor league system today, and was a major contributor to the current record of the MLB club.

      1. They didn’t have a $175 million dollar payroll in 2008 nor did they have the best team in baseball on paper.

        1. True.

          But if you review the history of the MLB payroll vs. the draft budget by year, you will see that there does not seem to be the kind of direct correlation you are suggesting. For example…

          2010 MLB Payroll ($142M) vs. 2010 Draft Spend ($3.927M)
          2009 MLB Payroll ($131M) vs. 2009 Draft Spend ($3.229M)

          So the payroll was actually lower in 2009, but they spent almost 20% less in the draft than they did in 2010 when the payroll was higher. It is true that 2009 they didn’t have a 1st round pick, but they did sign Brody Colvin for over $900K, and had a chance to add at least 1 of 3 other players to overslot deals (Brodie Greene, Jake Stewart, Andrew Susac).

          It seems to me that regardless of what the MLB payroll is, Amaro has set a draft budget of right around $4M or lower…come hell or highwater. Hope they spend more than that this year, but based on the comments so far I am not sure how likely that will be.

          1. “But if you review the history of the MLB payroll vs. the draft budget by year, you will see that there does not seem to be the kind of direct correlation you are suggesting. For example…

            2010 MLB Payroll ($142M) vs. 2010 Draft Spend ($3.927M)
            2009 MLB Payroll ($131M) vs. 2009 Draft Spend ($3.229M)”

            Perhaps that’s because they had more money to spend in 2010 than they did in 2009. The owners will only pay so much money. If the Phillies are making other teams pay the salary for the players that they get back in trades what makes you think they have the money to increase their draft budget as well? Maybe they’re just allocating it in a different way. You may not agree with the allocation of money but they are definitely not being cheap.

      2. Nobody……..the bA listing does paint a picture of the Phillies as being ‘very thrifty’ in their expenditures.

      1. Ahhh… Perfect, this helps immensely. Thanks to both of you. Here’s to hoping for quality over quantity I guess. Thanks again.

      2. Ah, the all mighty draft expenditures list. The priority of Nobody. Looks like the slugs that trail the Phillies are the Braves, Twins, and Brewers. This proves it . The last 4 teams in spending are such perennial bottom Feeders.

        1. Sigh…first off, if you are going to criticize my view it would be helpful if you got your facts straight. For example the Brewers have spent $4M more than the Phillies over the last 3 years (08-10).

          Then there is the problem that make your statement superficial and only sound witty to those who haven’t done any research on the issues. The Twins and Braves typically double the Phillies LA spend each year…sometimes even more than that. But hey, facts can be messy sometimes, so who needs them right?

          I realize that any statement critical of the Phillies while the goodtimes are rolling at the MLB level must be squashed by some as heresy.

          Let’s not use a website dedicated to coverage of the minor leagues to, you know, actually talk about the direction and future of the minors. Let’s instead focus on the MLB team of today…even though that involves looking backwards and not forwards.

          Brilliant.

          1. Okay, read the columns wrong, Phillies spent more in draft in 2010 than Braves , Twins, and Brewers, how’s that. More than the Braves in draft for that 3 year period, and add a couple more teams to that not all of which are terrible. Latin America- most of the Venezuelan players would cost more to sign than equivalent players in the North America draft. Most of the Dominican prospects, nearly all, are never seen in games, but only in controlled workouts arranged by their Busceros. Why pay multiple millions for a player only seen in a workout. Some of the massive amount of what you say is Latin America spending is actually spent by some of the teams for more veteran players from Japan and Cuba- players Philly has no need for. That vaunted Twins LA payout you refer to is , basically money on the Japanese SS Nishioka , who is an injury risk, and the supposed classy 2-way SS, Miguel Sano, who , a couple of years later, is now a big Dopick Left Fielder, still of questionable identity.
            They don’t need to fulfill the every wish of 51 HS whizbangs every year to bring into the
            system . They should pick what they think is good investments and they do well and will \do well this draft as well. The enormous amounts of money spent on the early picks in the draft account for the differences between the big spenders and Philly , and Philly should not try to best that figure by spreading an equivalent amount on players deemed by no team as worthy of picking, before, say, the 30th pick.

  23. Why? 1 WAR is worth about $2.5 million, and Pence is good for 3.5-4 WAR a year. So he’s worth about $10 million a year in any given year. His next contract will likely be right around that 10million dollar mark, and his contract after that will probably be around 13 million (assuming we don’t sign him long term). Since hes making $6.9 million this year and the Phillies have him for about 60 games, they’re paying him about $2.76 million. I’m pretty sure they got 1 million in the trade, so lets say the Phillies pay Pence about $1.76 million this year. Pence is on pace for right around a 4 WAR season, and the Phillies get about 60 games out of him, which is about 1.6 WAR for the Phils. Using the $2.5 million as the value of 1 WAR as stated above, Pence will bring us around $2.24 million dollars in surplus this year.

    Assuming Pence’s value is right around his career average, I would think a 4 WAR season next year is a pretty good estimation. If most people’s estimations for his arbitration contract are correct, Hunter will probably get a $10 million dollar contract next year, which means he won’t yield any surplus value; his contract will be market rate.

    The year after, Pence will likely draw a $13 million contract (or so the stuff I’ve read have suggested). I would again guess he’ll be somewhere in the ballpark of 4 WAR, which means he will actually yield a -$3 million dollar surplus.

    So, over the next 2.5 years, I would guess that Pence will be somewhere in the vicinity of -$.75 million dollars of surplus (+$2.25+$0-$3) given to the Phillies.

    If just one of Singleton, Cosart or Santana makes it to the major leagues and sticks, they should easily be able to yield a surplus of over -$.75 million. My guess though, is that they will be worth a whole lot more than that because for the first three years of any players career, they make league minimum. Basically, if any one of the three listed above plays a single season in the major leagues at a rate that isn’t below average, the Phillies will have lost the trade from a dollars perspective. And that’s without factoring Zeid into the discussion. so I would definitely disagree with you that it is a “fair” trade.

    1. Apparently the comment I was responding to is gone. I guess I look pretty stupid now, but either way, that’s my 2 sense on the Pence trade.

        1. Pence has been worth 3 WAR this season from his time in Houston and Philadelphia, and fangraphs values him at $13.5M so far in 2011. Last year, he was a 3.3 WAR player and was valued at $13M.

          1 WAR in 2010 = $3.94M
          1 WAR in 2011 = $4.5M

    1. Both the Braves and the Twins spend way more than we do internationally. Don’t know about the White Sox.

      1. They may spend more, but saying they spend way more isn’t really true. They make some big splashes every once in a while, but they are not near the top of IFA spending either.

    1. I suspect that the Red Sox, Nationals, Royals and Blue Jays drop some serious coin today. The Rays already did their damage

  24. Right, I’d like to straighten a few things out here: People keep saying things like “it’s not our money; it’s their money”. Actually, it is our money. How do you think these people get their money? Every time you buy something, go to a game, etc, you’re giving them money. That’s why those of us who have supported these teams for most of our lives demand more than we got for over a decade from the Phils, more than we get from the Sixers, more than we got for years from the Eagles as far as spending goes. We have every right to demand more because it is our money that is keeping them successful here.

    And the argument of “Having the best farm system vs. having a top-tier MLB team” is just flat out illogical. The best teams also have some of the best farm systems. The Braves, the Yankees, the Red Sox, etc etc. They all have great prospects almost every year. The Giants, the Rangers, the Rays. I could go on. Maybe you wouldn’t be so defensive of the organization if you had actually followed the team before they started winning again.

    Now don’t get me wrong. I absolutely love what Amaro has done, and he is NO Ed Wade thank God. He is a damn good GM in my opinion, and we all know it isn’t him who sets the budgets. I have been thoroughly pleased with past drafts, and completely understood when guys like Sustac and Frazier didn’t get signed because they wanted unreasonable amounts, but this is a completely different case. I am not happy with what.. 25 guys signed so far? Not when you skimped in LA, not when you trade away your two possible cornerstone prospects and another one with huge upside, and not when your revenue just keeps going up and up.

    The Phillies should be saying WWBD.. because they are the model to follow without a doubt. Also, I hate to break it to the bandwagon fans out there but 2008 was a fluke, and like it or not but this team still has flaws. We all saw that in 2009 and 2010, two series that were very winnable for the Phillies.

    1. The Yankees farm system is consistently overrated. How many players do they have contributing to their team who graduated from their farm in the past 8 years?

      Cano, Gardner, Ivan Nova, and a few bullpen pieces.. Not really what I’d consider a “strong” farm.

      They aren’t a good example of your point.

      1. As has been stated before, there are multiple purposes of prospects. Some of them come up and make a big contribution on the big club, and others are used as trade bait. Every single year, the Yankees have at least one player in their farm who is highly coveted. Look at the number of trades they have been able to make because of it. Granderson is a great example of that. The Phillies have had that for the past couple of years, but the fact is there are only two ways to keep that going: Sign players like that as amateur free agents or draft them.

        Now if you really want to get into on the field.. name one player the Phillies have kept on their team (not including the Ed Wade players) on Cano’s level. I’ll wait.

        1. “Now if you really want to get into on the field.. name one player the Phillies have kept on their team (not including the Ed Wade players) on Cano’s level. I’ll wait.”

          Not really fair since Cano was signed in 2001.

          1. The Yankees haven’t changed their ways so I don’t see how it isn’t fair. Regardless of who the GM is, the Yankees have always had the same approach. Not only have they produced guys like Cano but they have also made some pretty nice trades with their prospects. The Phillies have produced Rollins, Utley, Hamels, Pat Burrell and a few others, but in reality they were exceptions, not the rule. They have changed their approach since Ed Wade, which is the reason why I say not to include the players he drafted in this.

            Now if you want to include them, okay, then let’s not forget that the only player there who has been consistently good is Utley. Rollins has been flawed every year but ’07, Hamels had an amazing year last year but honestly he’s only been dominant in the postseason before that year. Howard is the next closest to being included with Utley in the consistently good his whole career category. Victorino is majorly flawed and can be very lazy at times. Dom Brown looks like he has the potential to be great but how many players do we say that about every single year? Sure there’s Leiberthal as well, but you have to go back to the ’90s for that one. How exactly do the Phillies stack up to the Yankees, led alone the other teams in the league over that time?

            1. “How exactly do the Phillies stack up to the Yankees”

              Pretty well I’d say, Cano was their first star player they developed since Alfonso Soriano? Before that? Jeter maybe? It’s not like home grown star players are the rule and not the exception for the Yankees either.

        2. So wait we can’t use players who are actually Cano’s age or came up around the same time? The guy came up in 2005, and didn’t reach his “level” until 2009.

          How do expect guys drafted after the guy made his major league debut to be on his “level” yet?

        3. I don’t think you can exclude the Ed Wade players because of the years involved. It’s comparing apples to oranges to only allow players that were drafted since 2006 to compare to a player that has been in the majors since 2005. Cano came up in 2005, the same year as Ryan Howard. Victorino was a Rule 5 pick that year. Cole Hamels came up in 2006.

      2. The Yankees system used to be weak and over valued. Anyone remember Eric Duncan? The past five years has seen a shift in how they value their prospects. They no longer only use them as trade bait. It has been a concerted effort to build the team from the inside out. You are only seeing the beginning of their success with people like Nova and Gardner. Montero, Banuelos, Romine, Culver, Betances are all down the pipeline.

        1. You mean like Joba and Hughes? Who are both busts. And trading away Ian Kennedy?

          Nova & Gardner are essentially replacement level players.

          1. You saw it at the trade deadline. They are hesitant to trade their prospects because they view them as their future starters. Watch September 1st Montero and Banuelos are going to be called up. The Yankees of the past would have traded them in a heart beat to snag a Beltran like rental.

      3. The difference–Yankees pay large bonus’ for Latin American signings—-the latest, Jesus Montero, Gary Sanchez and Banuelos.

        1. They also recognized that since they finish in the top tier of MLB records they also have to pony up the money by signing expensive picks. Cole was intent on going to college so they missed the bus on him but their fist pick this year, Bichette, got close to a million and so far it has paid off.

  25. I think the point most people are trying to make here is that if the Phillies spend, let’s say $1 million more on this draft to sign a few extra guys, it has the potential to pay dividends far beyond that figure in the years to come. Of course odds are that most of those players will fail to become contributors to a any major league club, but that’s not the point. We can use them as chips to acquire veteran talent that help us win now, which in turn keeps people coming out to the ballpark which in turn keeps the money flowing in. So if they have to shell out 350k each for let’s say Garvey, Shull and Walding, then while they may not be worth it individually, the overall benefit of having tradable chips in your farm system IS worth that $1 million extra.

  26. The ironic part of the Phils not spending lots of money is that you’re essentially penalizing them for getting good deals on guys like Tyler Greene, Cosart, & Singleton. Higher calibre talent for a good price >>> spending more for similar talen.

    1. That’s not the point if they get a deal great. Great especially because it’s likely the only way that player gets signed with their budget.

      But the Phillies scouting department says Player B is worth a $300,000 bonus… Problem is they won’t spend that $300,000 because they’re waiting to see if Player A will accept his $300,00 first. The Phillies don’t just avoid drafting signees who want big money, they don’t even pay the price of guys their own scouts say *IS WORTH IT* because it might push them over that dreaded $4m draft threshold.

      If they’re smart enough to get good prospects who will sign cheaply then AT LEAST SIGN THEM! They’re letting them sit there until they see how much of the budget is left on Aug 15. It shouldn’t be an either/or situation here.

    2. Actually, we’re penalizing them for not using those bargains to sign more players. We don’t go by the amount they spend but the circumstances in which they spend it, and if Schull or Hayden or any of those guys are able to be got for cheap enough, there is no excuse, especially not after they got such a bargain with Tyler Greene.

  27. News starting to come out now on other teams
    Mets sign Philip Evans SS (15th Round) -650K
    Blue Jays sign Matt Dean 3B – north of 700K
    Royals with a pair of 600K+ HS pitchers.

  28. It seems you can’t make an observation that might be cause for alarm without the typical “ID RATHER WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP” replies.

    Nobody has not once complained of trading prospects for MLB talent. He’s simply pointing out that you can’t maintain this philosophy with a maxed out payroll and spending so little in the draft.

    I don’t think anyone has advocated not trading for guys like Pence, Oswalt, Lee and Halladay but it doesn’t take a genius to see that you won’t have anything left if you’re not at least replenishing at the same rate that you’re shipping them out.

    1. This is a valid point. I just choose to look at it another way. Let’s say that Phillies window with the current team is 3 years (just using that number as an example. It may be 2, it may be 5). Now, in the next three years, the team as it is currently constructed will be extremely competitive with a better than average chance at winning a World Series.

      Do we know for sure what players will be in the system in three years? Do we know what the next 2-3 drafts will look like in terms of the talent acquired? Do we know which players will take huge steps forward? No, no, and no. The cry of the sky is falling is premature and assumes that NOTHING will change over the next 2-3 years.

      1. After midnight today we’ll have 3 years of Ruben Amaro led draft budgets to evaluate. I think that’s a pretty good example of what he plans to spend on the draft next year. Even the Phillies own scouts and scouting director said this was an unusually deep draft in talented HS prospects. More than in a few years. If even with your own scouts saying that you keep the same draft budget in 2009 and 2010 I think that’s pretty good evidence of what is likely to be done next season.

        Are the Phillies going to be out of their window next season? I don’t think so. Halladay->Lee->Hamels still here. Pence was traded for because of his ‘control’ so he’s part of the window going forward. If Ruben Amaro wouldn’t increase the draft budget for a draft his own scouts said was the best in years why would he do it next season?

      2. The sky most definitely is not falling. Even if the Phillies miss out on another bunch of talented HS kids out of this draft too. I am not sure why so there is such a rush to extremes to make a point.

        It is highly likely that once this collection of generational talent ages past their effectivity date, the MLB club probably won’t be the best in MLB anymore. But this isn’t about disaster. It is about potentially the difference between being a wildcard team in the future vs. one that just barely misses the playoffs. The Phillies will go back to an annual struggle to make the playoffs each year. It is just the way cycles work. Look at the Cardinals or Braves now for a good examples

        It would just be nice if the Phillies agreed that being at the bottom of the barrel in spend out of 30 other MLB teams when it comes to the draft and LA spend probably isn’t giving yourself the best possible chance for success in the future.

        1. Man, I really admire you for keeping your cool while some posters exaggerate your position, misinterpret, don’t bother to read what you really said, argue to the extreme, go off on tangents, don’t parse the nuances of your points, etc. I hope you have kids that benefit from that patience and maturity.

  29. FlyByNite articulates the criticisms that many of us have quite well.

    If the Phillies think that Garvey, or any other prospect for that matter, is worth $300k, then they should offer him the $300k. Don’t offer him $300k only if somebody else doesn’t sign.

    Or, sticking with Garvey, lets say that the Phillies view him as a $200k player, but somebody they’re willing to go to $300k for if they do not sign Greene. I’d like to at least see them offer the $200k. If he declines, so be it.

    I don’t like that they draft high school guys that they clearly feel are worth some sort of value, but that they will not even make an offer to them at their value as perceived by the Phillies (as opposed to the $ the player would require to sign).

    1. This is how things work. The Phillies draft guys they like. Every team does this. Sometimes, the Phillies know that the player has a huge number, but they hope that as the summer progresses, the player has a change of heart and will sign for less. If you’re a prospect, why offer to sign for slot, less than slot, or in the case of a player taken after the 5th round, $150K? If you’re Ryan Garvey, and you tell the Phillies your number is $350K (I don’t know if it is, im using a hypothetical) and the Phillies say “we’ll give you $200K”, if you’re Garvey, why would you sign? All prospects are trying to get everything they can in their bonus, because they know the odds of them becoming a big league star is slim. Its a constant negotiation. If a player, especially a high school player, thinks he will significantly improve his stock, and he wants to go to college, then why should he take less than he thinks hes worth?

      We don’t know Tyler Greene’s motivations for taking $375K when he originally looked like a guy who might push $1M. Maybe he just really didn’t want to go to college, and that commitment was just his only negotiating chip.

      The Phillies cant pay every player what they want, or the system breaks down. The system may already be broken, but MLB is going to try and fix it. Whether they can or not remains to be seen. And everyone who is slamming the Phillies for being cheap still haven’t seen what they are going to spend today. For all we know, the quotes from the front office have been a smokescreen to try and get some of the later guys to cave.

      1. PP, just a clarification, I wasn’t saying that I thought that the Phillies should offer every player what the player thinks he is worth. I’m saying that the Phillies should offer the players what the Phillies think they are worth.

        Lets say the Phillies draft 25 high school kids after the first two or three rounds. Out of that number, lets say that 2-3 are drafted as favors – the son of the video guy, a nephew of Amaro, whatever. Lets say that there are another 10 who are pretty raw that the Phils want to follow through the summer. So, that leaves us with approximately a dozen. Out of that dozen, there will be a few that the Phillies really want. Maybe even 4 guys that they’re willing to pay a premium amount for. Some you get, some you don’t.

        Of the res, lets say the Phillies internally have assigned each a value of 200-300k. If the Phillies think they’re worth $200k, why not offer the $200k to each? Clearly, they’re not all going to sign, and I don’t expect all of them to sign. But we’ve heard from Garvey this year and also Keenan Walker that they weren’t offered anything.

        I understand drafting a bunch of shortstops and walking away from Overbey when his demands are outrageous. But not making an offer to Garvey because Greene signed seems like a different story – the Phils can’t be saying that they only have room for one potential power bat in the system.

  30. Dr, Freud here. Office hours are open. Y’all know my position, I’m with Nobody, Squire, etc. Spend more.

    But stepping back from the issues, the comments in this thread are simply re-repeating arguments that have been made over a few months. I’m not saying don’t repeat your POV if you are challenged.

    However, it’s clear and obvious to me that the stress of waiting this long, steeping in our various positions vis a vis FO spending and related issues, has gotten to the posters here as a group. All points have been made many times. No one will change their minds dramatically in the next few hours, and this is baseball, a hobby, not fighting for your life in an alley.

    Not saying don’t discuss. But please don’t erupt into personal attacks. Posters here are like people in hundreds of cars stuck on the freeway for 3 or 4 hours. The wait, heat, and invasions of personal space get to you. The waiting period is over sometime tomorrow. As a fellow poster, I ask people to step back, take a deep breath, see what happens.

    Just my thoughts on the emotional temperature here.

  31. Rumors are the Nats are close to signing Rendon, Meyer, and Purke. In a couple of years they will be a force to contend with.

  32. Early/Mid July the Phillies announce the signings of Larry Greene and Roman Quinn. August 14th they sign hard throwing rhp Kenny Giles and on the 15th land not only Mitchell Walding but tough signee Tyler Greene, I think we would be happy that we landed those names and probably more forgiven that we didnt get Garvey or Shull. Dont let timing change the fact that the system did add some good players. Of course it would be nice to add more but we had this discussion many times before here and know it wont happen. No sense letting your blood boil over the few we missed when we can enjoy the many that they got. Best record in baseball and mid-lever minor league. I just cant be mad at this

    1. If we get Quinn and Walding I could probably OK with this draft but as of now we don’t have either.

  33. My 2 cents… If the Phils continue to be the beats of the East, to me that means they will continue drafting near the bottom of the 1st round. Nothing is a sure thing, but drafting prospects these days in the top 5 or 10 seems a bit more comforting and at least this year more expensive… so why not draft some of the hard signs or talented players and pay them like they were a top 5 pick? It seems like that was what they did with Colvin… why not budget like you have a top 5 pick and make it happen even if it is only 1 or 2 players you give that extra cash to? I mean this year as an example they knew they had a supplemental choice at best (Greene) so why not stock the cash drawer and draft a few talented players and pay them. This would at least make up for drafting the 30, 60, 90 players… which of course is actually much worse than that when you add in the supplemental picks etc… By doing that you are only keeping up, not even getting ahead!

  34. Wow – been away all day and just popped on. Again, I say “Wow”. My quick thoughts on the topics here (as I know you’ve all been waiting on me and my once a month posts 🙂 ).

    One, yes we have spent a lot less than other teams in the draft, because our big league club has been awesome! So we don’t get high picks. As PP pointed ot earlier – do you want the Phils to overspend on lesser talent to make the masses feel good? It’s the price of having a very good big league team – and one I am willing to pay. I personally like the risk/reward model they’ve taken. For every Hewitt there’s been a Singleton or Cosart. To me they looked at a rough (but actually good as the big club is good) situation and made the best of it. If you went “chalk” on some of the spots we’re drafting I think you have a minor leagues of organizational filler.

    Two, for everone knocking the Phils focus on the draft. I don’t get how in one post folks knock the Phils for their lack of focus/spend on draft, but then lament “all the talent we’ve traded away”. Umm – where did that talent come from? Yes that’s right, the draft! We did have good players to give away, before the Pence trade BA had us listed in the top ten (maybe higher) in minor league talent – and that’s after the all the trades we made. I mean come on peeps, we had good folks to give away because we drafted well.

    Add those two points together and to me, personally, it adds up to our guys doing a fairly good job – getting good minor league talent, while not being in a position to draft the “sure things” because of our good major league club, and still having decent talent left after all the trades they’ve made.

    So color me happy. I wouldn’t know young Garvery, or anyone of these other folks, if they walked in my house – so, and really not trying to be a homer here, I’ll put my faith in the folks that have gotten us this far.

    Just my $.02 (ok, maybe that was $.03)

      1. From Google translate, the beginning of the article:

        The Quebec-Jesen Dygestil Therrien, drafted in 17th round by the Philadelphia Phillies last June, agreed with the organization Monday.

        The right-hander in 18 years, who had until tomorrow to sign a contract with the Phillies, will now continue his apprenticeship in the minor leagues.

    1. Translation: (CKAC Sports) – The Quebec Jesen Dygestil-Therrien, drafted in 17th round by the Philadelphia Phillies last June, agreed with the organization Monday.

      The right-hander in 18 years, who had until tomorrow to sign a contract with the Phillies, will now continue his apprenticeship in the minor leagues.

      Montreal’s 6’2 “and 200 pounds, who was studying at Ahuntsic College, was selected in 36th round by the New York Mets in 2010. He had however been unable to agree with the formation before the deadline, becoming and qualifying this year’s draft.

  35. Does signing him change the position of signing Walding or Quinn? Or is this a bonus signing along with those 2?

  36. I think Quinn and Walding plus JDT would be fairly successful. Of course one of Schull and Garvey would be nice as well. Garvey sounds like he made his decision already though to go to college.

  37. My guess is three more players will sign (Quinn, Walding and Shull/Hayden) to begin their apprenticeship in the minor leagues with le Phillies.

    1. I think that would be a solid haul for the Phillies and I don’t think people could complain much about it regardless of how much they want the team to spend

  38. Julio also posted that the Phillies were going over to A.J. Ladwig’s at 8pm (from Ladwig’s FB)

  39. If they get Quinn and Walding done, I’d still like to see a pitcher or 2 besides D-T, as well as a catcher, but I’m probably dreaming.

  40. I’ve noticed a shift here over time – to be fair, part of it is a shift in perspective as I’ve soured a bit on management, but even adjusting for that I think I see a real shift. Over time, even mild criticism of the team has come to be regarded by many around here as a type of heresy.

    Sure there are people making unreasonable criticisms of the team’s draft approach (and incidently my own opinions on this point are much less critical than with regard to certain issues i have at the major league level with Amaro). But whereas a year ago the response to the critics was on the whole fairly measured, we have a situation now where a certain group of posters essentially takes the position that the team can do no wrong, and even the most mild criticism of management decisions is jumped on viciously. So you get defenses of the team that end up being almost self parody.

    Look, I understand the team’s draft/signing strategy and I am not nearly as upset about it as some people around here. But no amount of convoluted rationalizations can hide the fact that, on a cost benefit basis, the Phillies almost certainly could do better for themselves if they put a little more money in the draft.

    Ultimately the high beta of prospects is IMO an argument for spending more, not less, on the draft. Not necessarily more on 1 million plus bonuses, but more on the mid range guys who are real prospects – not org filler. If it’s a lottery, then buying more tickets increases your chance of a winning ticket.

    We’ll see. Maybe they will surprise us and sign several fo the remaining guys. Even if they don’t, I again am not going to join in with the harsher critics. But if, say, another million could have gotten us 3 of the mid range guys still unsigned (I’m even assuming Quinn signs), well, that would IMO be a false economy.

    1. Honestly, I think that’s a reaction to people who want to crucify RAJ. For my part, I wish they spent more, I like but don’t love the Pence trade, and the like. But when people rip into Ruben, I come to his defense more than I usually would

  41. Another article on JTD, translated by Google:
    MONTREAL – Quebec pitcher Jesen Dygestile-Therrien signed a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. These were selected in the 17th round of the recent Major League Baseball Draft in June.
    The young man in Montreal North that currently the colors of the Orioles to Montreal, the Junior Elite Baseball League of Quebec, was invited to Philadelphia last week to demonstrate his talents with a few other hopes the Phillies. According to Alex Agostino, the recruiter of the team for the Quebec-Therrien Dygestile impressed.

    “He did very well, showing good velocity on his shots. The leaders were impressed and asked me to offer him a contract, he said in a press Baseball Quebec. We have completed several transactions in recent years, making sure our branches are bare in particular launchers. Jesen progression and could be accelerated. ”

    Agostino, who had the opportunity to see the gunner in action in recent years, believes he has a good chance to break. “Even if he does not play the same position, I think Russell Martin on its intensity. We feel that he is an athlete who wants to absolutely succeed. ”

    Dygestile-Therrien should initiate studies and careers in baseball in the American university and college system in September.

    “The young players of today can afford to make the jump more quickly in professional baseball, and even if they have not completed their studies. Major organizations guarantee in the contract, the management cost of education if, unfortunately, a glitch occurred during the road to the big leagues, “said Phillies scout specified.

    Waiting for a work visa

    The Quebecers will not go to Florida immediately because there are only two weeks to the season in the league recruits. It will wait for his work visa without playing baseball.

    However, it might evolve in the Fall Instructional League Phillies. These also have the opportunity to allow their new player joining the National Junior Team that will compete in late September, the qualifying tournament for the next World Championship Junior Baseball.

    1. Wow. I haven’t taken a French class since sophomore year of college, but I think I could have done a better job of translating than The Google did.

  42. Does anyone have an update on Roman Quinn?? Anyone, Facebook stalkers?

    Come on baby, get the deal done! I confused with the mixed reports on Garvey over the last few months. Can someone explain why the false reports of his signing?

    1. There was never a credible report of Garvey signing. There was a mistake made by a community newspaper in California. In a story that had nothing to do with Ryan Garvey and without ever speaking to Steve Garvey or anyone else even remotely connected to Ryan, the reporter wrote that Garvey the Younger was going to sign with the Phillies. There was no reason to believe it. Nevertheless, people (some of whom are named Marfis) accepted it as true or at least possibly true becasue they really wanted it to be true.

      1. But, can he hit a curve? We already have had toolsy speed guys before, Golson and Hewitt to name a few.

    1. They could very well be done already and they just can’t announce it yet because the MLB doesn’t want them to

  43. Sheeesh…. I had to wait all day but the deal is finally done. Im officially a Philadelphia Philly! #Thank God

    Roman Quinn

  44. Roman Quinn
    Sheeesh…. I had to wait all day but the deal is finally done. Im officially a Philadelphia Philly! #Thank God

  45. #Thank God is right. If we get Walding and perhaps another pitcher, this draft will look quite solid.

  46. Fastest legit prospect in #mlbdraft. RT @conorglassey: #Phillies and 2nd rd. Fla. HS OF Roman Quinn agree on $775k deal ($220k over slot).

      1. At the time it was, but it’s long been broken by now.

        Either way I’d venture to guess it’s the highest if not one of the top 3 bonuses in that round.

  47. If you figure 200 for JDT (just a guess) and 100 for each of Rios, Murray and Ford and 5K for each of the college seniors, I have us at 4,000,300 right now.

      1. I might be high on that guess but I could just as easily be low on Rios or Murray too so who knows. We’re close to 4 million right now.

    1. I don’t know you so you could be speaking with inside information, but that doesn’t seem like an equivalent trade off based on the numbers.

      Walding said he wanted 2nd round money, maybe even 1st round money…I am guessing $500K at least and maybe even more than $750K. JDT is a max $250K guy it seems.

    1. lol. I dont know that for sure. I should have phrased that in a way it didnt sound so absolute lol. My fault

  48. I will be disappointed if we dont get Walding. I thought the point of this draft was to get SS help and if we only get 1 legit SS Greene and Quinn who may or may not be able to stick at SS that would be disappointing.

    1. Well isn’t Walding another “may or may not stick”? I think just about every HS short stop is labeled may or may not stick there.

      1. Maybe he is but i have read he has the bat even if he has to move from SS. same cannot be said for alot of H.S. SS.

  49. Maybe this was said elsewhere on this site: is there a chance the PTBNL (Santana) was already known for at least several days, but the Phils asked Houston to withhold the info until Larry Greene was signed? Maybe they figured that if Greene’s agent knew the Phils lost two upside offensive players, he might demanded a higher salary to sign Greene. Of course, as said here and elsewhere, it could be Greene was already signed but they waited until August 15 to announce the over-slot deal. It just seems more than coincidental the timing of the Santana PTBNL inclusion.

  50. Why would the phillies not even extend an offer to Garvey? Do they think that low of him? I mean even if his camp was suggesting it would take 350K, whay not counter and offer 200k and see if it is smoke screen? Maybe he really wants to play pro-ball and this is the perverbial negotiating ploy…if u do not at least offer a contract you know you get nothing… it’slike not buying a ticket for the lottery, you can’t win if you don’t play.

    1. Though if there were second thoughts on considering the investment, even at 200K, there is the counter-philosophy, paraphrasing The Wire: “You can’t lose if you don’t play.”

    2. What makes you think they have not?
      I would be surprised if they have not discussed parameters.

  51. Garvey may do well enough in college to gain a high draft position in 2 yrs. From what I’ve read and “heard” about him, he now is no great loss to our system.

    Question: If he were not the son of a great hitter, would we be crazy about him as “Smith” if he had the same numbers in HS…where he showed plenty of power but not not enough contact to indicate a duplication of his dad’s hitting success.

    In addition, he doesn’t seem to have a required decent speed for the OF. He will–IMO–end up playing 1st base if he ever makes it to the show. And we won’t need a 1st baseman in 3-4 yrs because that position will be covered by L. Greene…for sure.

    1. And as someone said earlier they heard something about the Phillies not being too impressed with his private workout

    2. Of course, if he is really as much of a non-prospect as you suggest he might be, I am wondering why the Phillies even drafted him then, especially in Round 15 as a known overslot HS player.

      1. He has only two projected MLB positions—1st and LF–we got plenty of those types already in the system, beginning with the big guy today—LGreene..

  52. OK, Garvey is gone. I can live with that.

    However, would like either Walking or Pletsch AND Schull or Hayden. Would also the Phils to sign Moore or Tomasetti, but that’s probably a pipe dream.

  53. Id love a last second Walding and Shull sign but Im betting all the Phillies execs are asleep readying for the Diamondbacks

    1. I would almost guarantee you none of them are sleeping. They will all be working up through the deadline.

  54. http://stlcardinals.scout.com/a.z?s=321&p=9&c=2&cid=1096078&nid=5781559&fhn=1
    The Phillies signed 17th round pick Jesen Dygestile-Therrien on the final signing day for 2011 Draft picks.
    The right-hander pitched at Edouard Montpetit Academy – equivalent to high school in the U.S. – and was originally drafted by the New York Mets in the 36th round of the 2010 Draft.

    It’s unclear where Dygestile-Therrien will be assigned, but it’s likely he’ll start his pro career in the Gulf Coast League.

    ——————————————————————————–

    1. Good but not great as that would be a draft probably in the $4.6-$4.8M range. Throw in Moore and you have me at great (given the lack of top picks).

  55. If we got Walding, it’s been a good draft and $4.8 mill is a reasonable draft budget, at least a significant increase on our last 2 drafts.

  56. Nice signing with Walding…any money left for Shull? Phils have gone over slot on Greene Jr, Quinn, and Walding!

  57. Think Shull would make it an average draft. Moore would have been a great addition as we could use some catching prospects but not likely to happen.

    1. Can’t really grade a draft this early. I think you really need to give it a few years before giving it a grade. We all talk about the 2008 draft. We weren’t that high on that draft when Worley and Stutes were struggling at Reading. Give it some time.

  58. Great signing… hoping Ruben and our scouting department can come through in the clutch and get Shull… however unlikely that is.

    1. Exactly what I was thinking reading all these comments above! I am amazed how many experts write on this blog! Sad the Phillies don’t use it as a guide for signings!

    2. The Phillies are not cheap. They just don’t spend a great deal on the draft and Latin America by choice. If they stop at $4.8M it is an improvement, but for perspective that will still be in the 20-23 range in MLB if that is it. It looks like there are more overslot bonuses this year, so I am guessing spending is going to be up 10%-20% overall. Probably close to $7M per team on average.

  59. also, im not done hoping for shull….ill never forget bitching about how they werent going to sign floyd in 2004 or whenever, and then at 11:59 they got him to sign the dotted line

  60. If Phils keep spending like this in the draft, they will be even more of a slam dunk to be a perennial powerhouse. Great job by Rube and the gang.

  61. Anyone calling the 3rd highest payroll in the league cheap is off their rocker. At worst they can question organizational priorites, but not cheapness.

  62. i wasnt saying the phillies are cheap for not going this far over slot in the past. a lot of teams like to stay in good favor with the league by sticking to or near the slot recommendations. i was more commenting on how the slot process is a joke and its absurd that a guy comes from DR and he can get $20 mill no questions asked but a guy drafted from a college has a recommended bonus by the commish. more teams are realizing its a joke though, so good for the phils for getting their guys. i really like this draft

  63. Top pick Larry Greene, second-round pick Roman Quinn and fifth-rounder Mitch Walding, all prep players, appear to be leaning towards signing before the Aug. 15 deadline. CHECK!

    Wolever said that the club has discontinued negotiations with 10th-rounder Jake Overbey, a prep shortstop from Tennessee. He’s committed to Mississippi and that’s where he appears headed. “We can’t meet the demands,” Wolever said. “They’re totally unrealistic. That’s not going to happen.” SUCKS but CHECK!

    Ryan Garvey, a 15th-rounder and son of former Dodger and Padre Steve Garvey, also remains a strong possibility. The younger Garvey is committed to USC. “We really have a lot of interest in him,” Wolever said. “I was out there and I was sitting with Steve and Candace and I think Ryan wants to play pro. It’s just a matter of seeing if he wants to walk away from the USC commitment.”
    I SAY DON’T CLOSE THE DOOR ON THIS JUST YET…

    Jesen Dygestile-Therrien, a 17th-round right-hander from Ahuntsic Junior College in Quebec is also a possibility. He’ll be in Philly next Friday for a workout at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark with a group of other unsigned draftees. Wolever labeled his signing a very strong possibility. CHECK!

    “We also have a few guys at the back end that we can make a strong run at if the guys up front don’t want to sign,” Wolever said. “We could make a run at some of them even if the top guys are signed. We’ve had luck with those kinds of players, the Dom Browns and Scott Mathiesons at the back end of the draft. We have a few back there. We have to see what we can do to get them out of their commitments.”
    WE COULD MAKE RUN AT THEM EVEN IF THE TOP GUYS ARE SIGNED!

    I SAY THIS MIGHT TURN OUT PRETTY SPECIAL BEFORE THE NIGHT IS DONE… sorry for the caps…

  64. #Phillies sign 5th-rder Mitch Walding for $800k. California HS SS with promising bat. #Oregon recruit. #mlbdraft

  65. We got Greene, Quinn and Walding like expected with the Jesen Dygestile-Therrien signing as the bonus. All in all it was the day they promised.

  66. #Phillies sign 5th-rder Mitch Walding for $800k. California HS SS with promising bat. #Oregon recruit. #mlbdraft

    1. Everyone might as well take a shot at it at this point.

      OMG Phillies sign Mitch Walding for a $800,000 bonus. #cheapskates

  67. A couple of comments:

    1. The people posting on here that have not been happy with Amaro’s draft signing have never said that the Phillies are disgraceful – only that the Phillies are near the bottom in spending. If you’re going to make a counter argument, try not to argue something that wasn’t said. Now, as far as draft spending, it’s a fact that the Phillies have been near the bottom each year.

    2. Does anyone bother to read the previous posts? It might be easier for others if they didn’t have to scan through 20 comments that say the same thing, i.e. “Law tweeted “

    1. A clear sign that they have no counter-argument.

      I don’t understand why we can’t just say “The Phillies”. We all know Amaro doesn’t have the authority to go too crazy, so there’s no need for people to go defending him. It’s not about him for me. It’s about the organization. I’ve been very happy with the drafts from 2007 on really, when compared with the drafts of prior years. It doesn’t have anything to do with the spending amount for me, more with the approach. They’ve done a solid job again this year, getting guys on the cheap due to not having as much leverage or even just due to really wanting to play ball and sign quickly. The past few years, the deal has been that the Phillies have signed most everybody within reason who had high enough upside. That’s all I’m looking for. They haven’t quite measured up to the drafts of these past few years in my opinion just yet but if they sign Shull it will go a long way towards that.

      When they approach things the way that they do, where they draft x amount of players with high upside, then the difference between a great draft and a mediocre to slightly above average one can be something as small as whether they sign 3/4 of those guys or only half. This is only my opinion of course.

    2. People will always be small-minded, poor readers, dull-witted on understanding the points that have been argued, and argue to the extreme. Thanks for restating the case acurately.

  68. The Phillies are so cheap if they don’t sign Shull, Overbey and Moore for a million dollars each they will never win again!!!

  69. The only guy I really care about is Schull, though Hayden and Ponto would be nice as well, both being big, projectable pitchers. I’m glad they got Walding but I didn’t need for that to happen for me to consider it a good draft because they already have Greene and others at SS. I’m hoping JDT wasn’t signed because they aren’t going to sign either of those guys but I wouldn’t doubt if that was the case. Still, a lot of interesting guys in this draft and a few guys who could make an impact at the big club one day. I definitely like the fact that the majority of guys they signed either have high upsides but are raw, have fallen due to injuries or bad years, or might not have as high of upsides but are somewhat polished and still have potential. Still an hour left, who knows until it’s over.

  70. I will not be satisfied until Schilling comes out of retirement to pitch one last time for the Phils! 😉

  71. Even if they do not sign another pick I am excited about this crop of youngsters! But Shull or Moore would be a cherry on top of the perverbial sundae!

    1. Yea, I just read that too. damn shame. He definitely deserved to go in the 2nd round, but I wish he would’ve signed in 2009 when the Phils took him in the 16th round.

  72. I’m going to bed. If we sign anyone else, someone email me and I’ll update this post tomorrow.

    Thanks for coming everyone, we crossed 7 million hits today. I know most of those hits over the last 5 years are 25 of you hitting refresh every 15 seconds, but I appreciate it nonetheless

    1. …and Im one of them. I promise u I personally reached 500 today alone and most likely alot more then that.

  73. Ahhhhh the suspense is killing me… the deadline passed, obviously… but we’re going to get a name or two hopefully in the next few minutes.

  74. I’m guessing we have another half hour before we start hearing about anything that might have gotten done unless the players themselves chime in.

    1. They budgeted their ML roster around the draft though, and they also made quite a few of those pics on signability.

      Still impressive nonetheless. But when you go very cheap at the ML level just to afford the draft it should tell you about the org’s state.

  75. Great draft folks. I think there will be someone starting in the infield by 2015 or sooner. Plenty of options and competition at 3B, SS, and 2B with some OF.

    Larry Greene – LF / 1B
    H. Martinez, Cody Asche – 3B
    Roman Quinn – OF
    Mitch Walding, Tyler Greene – SS

    Also add Freddy Galvis and at least one of the baby aces [Trevor May?] MLB ready in the next 18 months.

    1. We have some other guys to watch at 3B too. Maikel Franco is young and getting a taste of Lakewood. We’ll see how he develops. Right now he’s shown more than Asche I think

        1. Does Quinn project as a SS or OF? The team needs to dedicate time to the guys with tools aligning with the best position on the field. I don’t think there is time to mess around in trying them at different positions.

          You are correct about Garcia, unfortunate about the leg injury. But he projects as a super utility guy. Hernandez is definitely getting attention.

          I also neglected to mention Carlos Rivero. He is MLB ready next year, probably a stopgap at 3B after the departure of Polanco. Not sure if his glove is full time though.

      1. The Nats still need pitching as I think Purke is a injury ready to happen like Strasburg. They will score many runs but give up more reminding me of the 2004-2006 Phillies.

  76. Bummer we couldn’t bring in another guy like Shull or Moore or maybe even Plestch to top this thing off, but still a pretty satisfactory draft overall. Wish we could spent a tad more on the draft to compensate for the continuous prospect recycling we do to benefit the big club, but they say you can’t have your cake and eat it too. It’d sure be nice though that maybe someday we’d adjust our draft spending strategy to coincide with the elite spenders… Either way, I think its Time to sit back and enjoy what we can get out of our newly signed prospects, and hope for the best! Let’s go Phils

  77. It’s interesting how all this played out. They had to wait on getting Greene done, I’m betting, before they could settle Quinn. And since they were willing to pay more for Walding, they couldn’t work that out until Quinn was done.

  78. Pittsburgh, Washington, Kansas City and Tampa are all small market teams. They need to overspend and sign all of the drafted players to stay competitive. Not to mention, they are using money from large markets to pay high in the draft. The Phillies need to keep the ball rolling and that involves packaging high ceiling prospects for proven players.

    1. Normally they would go to the GCL Phillies because they are all HS kids but there is less than 2 weeks left in their season so they may just stay at the Clearwater complex and join the Instructional league when it starts at the end of September. Hopefully some of them might see some action in the GCL before the season ends.

  79. I think this was a great draft… Looking at the guys who signed, I see a few prospects:

    Larry Greene
    Roman Quinn
    Harold Martinez
    Cody Asche
    Adam Morgan
    Mitchell Walding
    Kenny Giles
    Austin Wright
    Tyler Greene

      1. I like that they got the top power guy and the top speedster mixed with a few other talented guys. Hopefully it all pans out for them.

  80. I would really have ramped up spending this year due to the Pence trade, but they got good talent.

  81. I’m happy. Am I the only one who thinks Mitchell Walding is a great baseball name? Best of luck to him.

    1. Okay, let’;s just ignore the multiple media reports of Dygestile-Therrien signings, cause after all, they’re just from Canada, and assume the signing of the 6’6 Shull, cause everybody 6’6 is great. Shull is on a list that simply says “signed” but go with that cause guys on the internet who make lists never make mistakes. But I also see he lists Peter Lavin as a Left Handed Pitcher, so maybe he’s not so perfect after all.

      1. Honestly, I struggle to understand the points you are trying to make sometimes. You seem to rush to criticize, when in reality Squire has a better handle on who signed for what than most on here, and I include myself in that statement. Most news I hear I get from him.

  82. I think the Phillies at least did what they had to in this draft. I already like the 2011 draft better than 2010. I am not sure if they are done or if they have other signings to annouce.

    If they don’t spend another dollar so far their spend is about the same level as 2010. It is about $4M plus $800K for the extra 2nd rounder…which is right about where Walding or Quinn signed. So they still stuck to a very conservative budget, but I think they used it pretty well.

    I would have liked to have added Ryan Garvey, Braden Shull, and one of the HS Catchers. In fact out of 4 HS Catchers drafted, it appears the Phillies didn’t get any of them. Also the moderator at Phillies Phans Julio kept a good tracker showing that out of 24 HS players drafted the Phillies signed only 6 of them (including JDT as a HS player).

    But after 3 years under the Amaro regime I have come to the realization that the Phillies just aren’t going to spend much more in the draft than $4M or so…give or take an extra pick. All I can hope for is that they spend it on the right players and the guys they don’t get signed don’t come back to haunt them.

      1. Shull’s Facebook page is showing one congratulatory comment from a friend, which says, “at least I won’t have to face you in the Big 12.” We should see confirmation soon, if this is accurate.

    1. I agree with the general sentiment. This is still a pretty conservative draft. I think the $4.8-$5.0 million spent will end up in the 20-25 range in MLB, probably on the lower end of that. The Phillies got pretty good values for their dollars, especially with TGreene. But it is also hard to identify obvious high end talent that they signed. This is one of the pitfalls of not having a number one and not going for a guy like Purke that drops because of signability. I guess we should be happy with the relative efficiency even if the overall spend is 25th or something like that in MLB.

      1. Problem with comparing where the Phillies spend in overall numbers is that your comparing them with their first pick at #37 vs. teams picking in the top 5-10. Obviously the Pirates, National, Royals, etc. are going to spend more simply because their top pick is going to cost around $5M.

        The question is did the Phillies do a good job of targeting talent and getting those guys signed. We will know the answer to that question in another 3-4 years.

        1. Top pick is part of it but not all of it. Pirates just spent $5 million on their 2nd round pick and about $3.4 million on picks 3-10 combined. Royals spent $4 million on picks 2-10 after going $7.5 million on Starling. Nationals spent $5 million on picks 3-10 after spending $11 million on their 3 1st or 1A round picks.

          1st round picks are part of spending. But I think we will find that the Phillies are below average in their after-1st round spending also. I do think we got really good value for our money. But the overall spend is lower than average even considering draft position.

          1. Oh I agree that their spending overall is lower than the average just not to the extreme that is it often portrayed.

        2. Well yes but gutting the farm system calls for max effort and $. Just look at Reading.

        3. About knowing in 3-4 years, I generally agree. Not trying to rain on the 2011 draft parade, which I am generally happy with. However, we are starting to get some early returns from the Amaro drafts and guys they didn’t make room in the budget to sign.

          2009 – Brodie Greene – Was going to be drafted in 9th round, then taken in 37th round after he and the Phillies couldn’t agree on 9th round money (re-drafted in 4th round by the Reds in 2010 and got a $122K bonus)

          2009 – Andrew Susac – Drafted in the 16th round in 2009 (re-drafted in 2nd round in 2011, signed for $1.1M by Giants)

          2010 – Keenyn Walker – Drafted in 38th round in 2010 (re-drafted in 1S round by the White Sox in 2011, signed for $795K. Said he would have signed with the Phillies in 2010 if he had gotten an offer of $350K but didn’t get anything from them until the last few hours on signing deadline day)

          The jury is still out on some of the other key HS overslot sigings from 2009-2011. None of these guys may ever do anything at the MLB level. But they do represent talent that the Phillies scouts uncovered and argued for drafting that ultimately did not get signed largely due to the lowest draft budget in MLB.

          1. Just because they were re-drafted and signed doesn’t mean they’ll pan out. So what if they were drafted higher the second time around?

          2. Oh the loss of Brodie Greene, just think for the cost of a mere 122,000 signing bonus , they could have gotten Greene as the minimum salary alternative as a utility Infielder versus the barely above minimum salary raked in by Wilson Valdez. Just think, if they could have kept Green at minimum salary for 3 years, they could have saved a whole couple thousand dollars, figuring the minimum salary of Green plus the $ 122,000 bonus, versus the cost of signing a barely above minimum an MLB or minor league veteran would rake in.
            Keenyn Walker- funny didn’t hear a mention of Walker immediately after the draft,
            great loss that it was. The moaning and groaning only started after Walker began appearing on top prospects lists prior to this draft. Coincidence? don’t think so.

            1. Marfis, you have a true knack for making other people’s points for them. Is this some kind of reverse psychology or what?

          3. And what about all the Players the Phils DID not sign for $350,000 that are never heard from again.

            1. Some of you guys are like having a conversation with sand. Constantly shifting positions and changing statements all in some kind of bizarre worship of any and every decision the Phillies make. The group think is disturbing. I certainly hope the Phillies are capable of more critical self inflection than some of you are. I expect they are. All good organizations engage in it to learn from past mistakes.

            2. And to Nobody,

              be careful not to try to make your point by pointing to specific players. that allows those who miss the forest for the trees to keep the argument in the trees.

              And you have way more patience than I. keep up the good work

          4. Probem I have with your position is that you act as if the Phillies are the only team that doesn’t sign guys in the 37th or 38th round. Happens all the time.

            This year, the Jays didn’t sign their 1st round pick, Yankees didn’t sign a 2nd rounder, etc.

            Phillies failed to sign only 3 of their top-20 picks. RedSox didn’t sign 5, Yankees – 4, Giants – 4.

            Your position seems to be that the only reason players don’t sign is because the Phillies “didn’t make room in the budget to sign them”. Unless your advocating that Phillies should pay all 50 guys drafted whatever they demand so as to not lose out on that opportunity?

            If that’s not your position (and I don’t think that it is) then pointing out particular players the Phillies didn’t sign who were redrafted and signed again is meaningless.

            They obviously take a value based approach to the draft where they assign a value to players and they sign those who will agree to that value. People can certainly argue that their assessments are too low but they lose me when that point morphs into arguing that the Phillies should spend more just because they can or because everyone else does.

            The “pay them what you have to pay them” position fails logically and the fall back argument that goes “I just want them to spend $1M-$2M more” also fails when you then ask who do you target with that extra cash? That still means that a potential star gets missed. At that point, we’re back again to questioning the value the Phillies assign to the players drafted and since they know way more about these guys than I do, I’m in no position to challenge their decision.

            And yes, they will get it wrong sometimes just like every other organization does.

            1. And every draft is littered with guys who got a lot more than slot recommendation after the 3rd or 4th round and didn’t pan out at all. Hell, everyone is falling over themselves to praise the Pirates for their last few drafts, but a bunch of their big bonus babies are really struggling. Take a look at what they gave Zach Von Rosenberg, Colton Cain and others and look at the results they have posted on the field.

              The only thing I take issue with is people bitching about what the Phillies spend on the draft, and then insist “they should give X to player Y”, when they really have no idea how good player Y even is, and probably haven’t even see the player live. We are all going off of other people’s information, its the nature of the business, but to direct so much vitriol toward the Phillies draft budget is just strange to me, especially since the Phillies always seem to find undervalued gems in every draft.

              This also doesn’t speak to the fact that the Phillies gave a massive overslot deal to Walding, and likely spent another $350K+ signing Shull and JDT. For all of the love everyone gives the Red Sox for their carefree spending in the draft, their notable bonus babies over the last 3-4 years have either flopped or failed to develop in to even average big league prospects. Lars Anderson is the poster boy for this. Its not about how much. Its about where you spend it.

            2. Marti Wolever has made it pretty clear that they only have the budget to go after certain guys first, and if they don’t sign, then go after other guys. Operating under a budget isn’t a problem, we all do it, but with the smallest budget in MLB, or close to it, that means the Phillies have to pass on signing more guys than some of the other teams. Not because they aren’t worth a certain dollar amount they would sign for…but because the Phillies run out of budget faster than most of the rest of MLB baseball.

              This isn’t that complex. One of the smallest draft budgets in MLB probably means you have to pass on prospects every year that you would like to sign, or that would sign, but the money isn’t there to get it done.

              To think that is a short sighted by the Amaro regime should not be considered heresy. I am still a Phillies fan, just like I was in the 1980’s and 1990’s when it was more difficult, and I am still a fan of Amaro as the GM. I just think he is making a mistake with the draft spend. So shoot me if you must.

            3. I haven’t seen a single bit of vitriol towards the front office in this entire comment section.

              I have seen a lot of vitriol towards people who rightfully question the small budget.

              People really need to stop using that word. It is constantly used incorrectly. Vitriol means acrimony, unnecessarily harsh and even mean statements, etc.

  83. Post-signing day withdrawals…must…have…unsubstantiated…rumors…and…wild…speculation.

  84. If the Braden Shull rumors come to fruition that would be good news. Anytime you can sign a 6’6″ HS LHP with good upside you should do it.

    1. 11th-hour Garvey, Shull, and JDT signings, in addition to the others, would leave me very happy. I’ll still be happy with Shull and JDT, if the rumors and tweets are correct (looks promising). That gives us at least a few projectable HS arms to dream on for a few years.

  85. JDT was signed, it’s official…

    http://stlcardinals.scout.com/a.z?s=321&p=9&c=2&cid=1096078&nid=5781559&fhn=1
    The Phillies signed 17th round pick Jesen Dygestile-Therrien on the final signing day for 2011 Draft picks.
    The right-hander pitched at Edouard Montpetit Academy – equivalent to high school in the U.S. – and was originally drafted by the New York Mets in the 36th round of the 2010 Draft.

    It’s unclear where Dygestile-Therrien will be assigned, but it’s likely he’ll start his pro career in the Gulf Coast League.

    1. They obviously didn’t read the French-translated article from yesterday, where it indicated he no play yet work visa bad.

  86. Dygestile-Therrien can play for the Canadian National Team under the auspices of Philly, seen it in an article yesterday.

  87. The money spent was conservative, but I still like what the Phillies were able to do with it. Getting T. Greene at less the $400,000 was a steal and probably allowed them to go get Walding. They got more done then I expected they would. If they really did manage to get Shull as well I’d be pumped.

  88. So out of curiosity how do you suppose they will find playing time for 3 H.S. Shortstops all brought in at the same time?

      1. Yup, Quinn will likely play 2B or CF. Greene and Walding will be easy as they could either double jump Greene to Lakewood or hold both back in XST and then start one in Williamsport and one in the GCL.

          1. Oh yeah, he’s now at 10 games and 36 AB’s. He’ll finish with a bit more, that alone isn’t going to get a ticket to LO-A. They all can finish out the season, and with the evaluations of Instructional League and the next Spring Training the placement will be determined. Lakewood would be a longshot for any draftee in any season. Maybe they have an opening there, however, so maybe. All of the signees will be assigned to the level they can be deemed ready to advance in. Doubt that many will be assigned to GCL to start off with, but if so, look for position changes.

        1. i also think they need to be agressive in promoting valenzuela after his great hitting. Out of all of the GCL shortstops, i would see him being the one challenged the hardest

        1. Now , let’s see . Malcolm did something negative enough to get bounced early in Spring Training , not be re-instated for the entire season, but yet not bad enough to be prevented from re-joining the team at the next Spring Training. Things that make you go – hmmm.

      2. Quinn could still play SS. Just because we signed three does not mean we should necessarily move any of them. All of them might play some 2B or 3B to get them in the lineup, but if any of these guys can play SS at a major league level they will stay there. Someone will probably play SS at Lakewood next year with the others at Williamsport or GCL.

    1. I say they can start with a rough plan for players at that age group going forward They can start with an alignment of Tyler Greene, 3b, Mitchell Walding SS, Carlos Valenzuela at 2b, Brian Pointer in LF, Roman Quinn in CF, Larry Greene in RF, Chace Numata at C, and 1B unknown would have liked to have Ryan Garvey, but no need to agitate the spilt milk crowd, I’d go with the JC signee Trey Ford to start out. They can finish up the GCL season with that alignment. And they can bring that to Instructional League and move people around or on or off as needed.

  89. Any chance we can delete the YouTube video post ? It’s preventing this page to fully load on my phone.

  90. BA doesn’t have Shull in bold.
    You’d think one of our beat writers could ask a few people who could confirm.

    I will do a full recap/writeup either sometime this week or this weekend.

  91. For those complaining of the Phillies once again not spending near the top of the list…maybe they are holding onto the cash for the 2012 draft, when both Madson & Rollins Type A designation could leave the Phillies with 3 1st round picks & 2 Supplemental 1st rounders.

    I hoped for more HS signings, but I am happy for some new names to follow in the boxscores. I will miss Domingo Santana, but I am glad they retained lisalberto bonilla.

  92. I have no inside info, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Quinn plays 2B. I’d like to see all 3 of Quinn, Walding and Greene at Lakewood to start, playing 2B, 3B, and SS in some fashion.

        1. Yeah thats valid.

          Hell, they may even move Franco to CLW next year, even though that would be hyper aggressive. Who’d have thought we’d have to worry about where we can play legit SS/3B prospects.

          1. Seeing Franco at Lakewood I think he belongs there next year. Maybe they have him share time and DH with Martinez again with the hope of promoting one of them to Clearwater by midseason.

    1. Anyone know about Jonathan Knight, aside from what’s mentioned on the Draft Picks page. On dimensions alone, seems like a taller, thinner version of Garvey, also a RH-hitting OF out of HS.

      1. phuture, will you do a detailed post on the draft, taking into account the last-minute signings? i’d love to read your analysis.

    1. Seems like an Aaron Altherr type that will need lots of time. Don’t know much about St. Petersburg college but it sounds like that commitment was not worth much. No idea his bonus but from that article it should be $100K or less.

      1. I know something about St. Petersburg College, it is right across the street from the Phillies minor league camp in Clearwater. An article said they went over slot so slot past the 5th round or so should be $150,000.

        1. My list of Marfis predictions over the past three years is complete. WOuld u like it sent to ur email for review?

          1. Well maybe, some of the best stuff may have been deleted due to some interpretation of something as a snide remark or something. And other stuff seemed to disappear for no reason at times. If that proposed story ever sees the light of day, suppose the seeing in print will cause some interpretation regardless. It would be better if there was some type of feature like on the Eagles Message Board where you can click and see all the posts of a poster. If that could go up side by side, as compared to what has been interpreted as a prediction , it would remove some areas for dispute and make it easier to check. After all, it’s only bandwidth.

      1. Johnathan started playing when he was 10. He only started 3 games junior year and was an actual starter his senior year. Never had any work with his batting, meaning no batting coach, everything he has learned with that has been on his own. Very excited to see what the Phillies can do with him. He runs a consistant 6.7 60yd dash.

        1. Well it sounds like as long as he can get balls in play (on the ground at least) he will be able to leg out some hits.

    1. Well, since almost every deal for players in the first 5 rounds was announced last night right before midnight, I can see smaller deals getting lost in the shuffle. Plus, none of the Phillies beat guys outside of Salisbury care about the draft or the minors at all, so its not that surprising that it would go unnoticed.

      The link above is Larry Shenk’s site, he’s a Phillies employee, so I doubt he’d be writing that we signed so and so if they weren’t actually signed.

  93. They really also got Shull??? really??? wow. Dam im so glad Im a Philly fan and founf this site. 2 blessing baby!!!

  94. How did the Phillies draft compare to the rest of the east? And how does it look after all the signings are done? which teams stepped up and which teams lost out? Id like to know how the Phillies are doing in the draft but I dont know how to compare their draft and see results. I wonder about these things but dont know if this is talked about anywhere.

      1. I guess you could do what others do, and focus on who spent the most, since spending more always gives you the best prospects………….

      2. It takes year for players to develop to a point where you can even consider a draft successful. Even then a team can turn around and use those picks in trades, so they might never play for the organization that drafted them .

      3. Maybe not for this years draft then but what about 06,07,08…looking back and seeing who did the best.

  95. Nabbing Walding and Shull yesterday made this a solid draft on paper.

    Should be interesting to see if any of them pan out.

  96. like to find out about knight, was it just a bad senior year like singleton had or did he not hit at all in high school.just wondering

      1. you seem rather well connected to his situation, and by your moniker, you wouldnt happen to be his mother would you?

    1. According to Reports, He has Excellent Range and can really belt one out.

      Some say he puts on a better show than even Bryce Harper.
      He will likely really fill the Minor League Stands as he moves up the ladder.

      Some Awesome Scouting Video:

      Link

      1. That probably went over everyone’s head, but that’s pretty funny (Jonathan Knight). The sad part about is … this Johnathan Knight will end up with the same number of big league hits as that Jonathan Knight.

    1. Other places say he hit .221 (big warning bell there). Sebring HS stats say he hit .250. Your linked article says he hit .474. Ginormous gulf between a .221 or .250 hitter (real contact problems, especially with off the charts speed) and .474, which is decent but not great for a good HS prospect. Hope it
      s the latter.

  97. okay did he hit 221 or 441 which is right????? where did nobody get the 221 average from when his page said he hit 4oo plus

    1. Well it said he hit .440 last year on an article dated in Jan 2011. So it sounds like he hit .440 his junior year and .221 his senior year

  98. Maybe he hit all of those. On fire early, then injured or something like that. With the BAs all over the place, hard to get a read on his hitting skills coming into GCL or FIL. Would be nice to get an accurate picture.

  99. It would seem with plus speed, he could bunt .221. I lean toward believing the .400+ numbers.

  100. From the Philly.com website.
    “On deadline day, the Phillies agreed to terms with their first-round pick (Larry Greene), second-round pick (Roman Quinn), fifth-round pick (Mitch Walding), 17th-round pick (Jesen Dygestile-Therrien), 27th-round pick (Braden Shull) and 49th-round pick (Jonathan Knight). In each instance, they awarded a bonus above the recommended slot by Major League Baseball.”

  101. Looks like the Phils came within one high ceiling catcher of having an excellent draft. That makes it a very good draft and I think we’ll all take that. And now we wait and wait and wait.

    1. Good to see this local media coverage of the draft, this year’s spending vs. recent years, etc.

    2. love his analysis of the 2008 draft. once you get past hewitt and collier, the team got some great value that’s already paid dividends.

    3. My dissenting view was initially based on James’ prediction/expectation that there would be a Greene, Quinn, Walding signing day. The addition of DJT, Shull and Knight certainly go a long way to making me feel better about the draft signings as a whole. The last three signed are the types I believe are important “extra” signs that can put a draft class over the top with “relatively” little extra risk/cost.

  102. Is anyone legitimately still not happy? Some said getting Greene, Quinn and Walding wouldnt be enough for them. So they added JDT, Shull and a bonus in Knight. So…is that enough for those who werent happy?

    1. Definitely a good draft, and good to see them spend more than in recent years, especially in some areas of need. One issue is that it seems they may have underestimated the bonus demands from the C’s, on which they spent a bunch of picks.

    2. The Phillies do an excellent job every year in the draft itself. It is the actual signings that sometimes are a letdown.

      In 2010 the Phillies spent $3.927M on signing bonuses. If Gelb’s report is true and they spent just over $5M in 2011, that means they spent in actual terms about $400K or so more than 2010. The biggest part of the spending difference between 2010 and 2011 was the extra 2nd round pick that added $750K – $800K to the overall spend.

      But overall, I think the Phillies got done exactly what they had to get done to have a quality draft. Their final signing list pretty much matches up with what I thought was the best possible outcome based on their expected budget constraints.

      I like the final results of the 2011 draft alot better than the final results of the 2010 draft.

  103. I’d like to give credit to the Phils for spending more than usual this year. While it is nowhere near what other teams spent (Bucs’ second rounder alone signed for as much as all 30 of ours), it is a step forward. Baby steps.

    My personal ratings based on what I’ve read (which means I know nothing):

    Tier 1: LG, Giles
    Tier 2: Quinn, TG, Walding, H-Mart
    Tier 3: Morgan, Wright, Asche, Shull, JDT

    1. The questions on everyone’s mind is who is Johnathon Knight and is that how you spell his first name? I assumed he has a nephew of some bigwig in the front office.

      1. No he is not a nephew he is a legit player and his name is spelled…. Johnathan
        You can search him on google with Sebring or baseball behind his name to get actual hits on him not the singer.

      1. It was just an example, I could have chosen any of the teams that spent more than $5m on one player. His is an apt one since it was almost exactly the same amount that the Phils spent and he was available when they picked. But I never expected them to pick him since that is not their style. The point is that while they do not spend anywhere near what other teams spend, they did bump it up this year and for that I am pleased.

        1. The Phillies are in a boom period and drafted players want to be in this organization. The team continues to be aggressive and the future is looking good.

  104. I’m happy no qualms at all. Now its up to these kids and their coaches to get them to their fullest potential.

    Really don’t understand the worry over catcher you have Valle coming hard and Ruiz is not going anywhere anytime soon.

    1. I think as SF has experienced with Posey, you can have a good (or in his case, very good to excellent) C one moment and a big hole the next, w/ the threat of injury simply higher in that position. Having multiple catchers across the levels would be great, though not easy to achieve. Having Valle and Rupp (and, closer as Ruiz replacement, Kratz in AAA) is a decent start, but getting some more depth in the system would seem prudent, even if not needed at this very moment.

  105. SWEET!
    On deadline day, the Phillies agreed to terms with their first-round pick (Larry Greene), second-round pick (Roman Quinn), fifth-round pick (Mitch Walding), 17th-round pick (Jesen Dygestile-Therrien), 27th-round pick (Braden Shull) and 49th-round pick (Jonathan Knight). In each instance, they awarded a bonus above the recommended slot by Major League Baseball.

    Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/127879698.html#ixzz1VDMmCH7r
    Watch sports videos you won’t find anywhere else

  106. So we got a guy with huge power in L. Greene, a really fast guy who’s a prospect in Quinn, some big projectable pitchers in DT and Shull, a great fastball guy in Giles, some SS/3B prospects in Walding/ T. Greene/Martinez, and a project speed guy late. I wish we had signed one of the high school catchers, but I can’t complain overall about this draft.

  107. Best draft since 2008. Could have been an even better draft if a Riley Moore had been signed as well, or possibly signed additional HS pitching signed (or drafted and signed as the case may be), but still they increased the budget up $1m and quite honestly some of the guys they signed I thought would be more expensive than they were. I think it’s a solid B+ draft possible bordering on A- just because of the un-Phillies like pick of Larry Greene who is a legit power prospect and not their typical toolsy OF. The Shull signing really elevates it a bit because I was not liking the lack of pitching. There may be some good college arms and Giles looks like he has an electric arm, but to get Shull who’s a 6’6 lefty throwing around 90 MPH with room to grow. That’s a nice addition.

  108. one final comment. Everyone is putting the Red Sox out as the team that does it right so I did a comparison of their current ML roster vs. the Philles

    FA Signings – Sox – 12, Phils – 7
    International FA – Sox – 0, Phils – 2
    Trade – Sox – 6, Phils – 7
    Draft (most recent -Sox -10 (06 -Bard & Reddick), Phils – 8 (08 -Worley & Stutes)
    Rule V – Sox – 0, Phils – 3
    Thats a total of 28 players for Boston and 27 for Phils (Boston has an extra guy on the dl)

    Also, BBA’s organization rankings going into 2010 – Philies 10th and RedSox 17th.

    For all the complaints about the Phillies needing to do it more like Boston, It would appear that they are currently doing it better. Their system is ranked higher, they have had more recently drafted players contribute to the club and they’ve had more success with international FA’s making the big club.

    As Phillies fans we sometimes live in the fishbowl of only seeing what is happening within the Philies system, both good and bad without seeing how their results truly compare with other top organizations.

    1. I think I heard one comment in this entire thread saying they should be more like the Red Sox.

      Most of the complaints from some of us is around the Phillies under Amaro providing better financial support to get more guys signed that their scouting staff generally does a great job at finding and drafting.

      The 2011 draft seems to be a step in the right direction from 2009 and 2010.

      1. you’re right, I should have said that multiple people over the past years in different threads have used the RedSox as the example of how a model franchise is run.

        And since I generally agree that the Red Sox are a well run operation, I think is more than fair to compare the Phillies against their model.

      2. People say the Phillies should be more like the Red Sox every year during the draft and on the signing deadline… every year.

    2. Clay Buchols, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Papelbon, Bowden, Kalish, Youklis, Daniel Bard, Josh Reddick have all played at some point this season for the Red Sox.

      Not to mention the trades they’ve used some of their prospects for, to get guys like Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, Adrian Gonzales, Derek Lowe, etc etc.

      That’s of course not counting any of the international signings, like a certain Japanese pitcher and another reliever who were instrumental in the 2007 World Series win.

      1. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Madson, Stutes, Kendrick, Worley, Mathieson, Andrew Carpenter, and Dom Brown have all played at some point this season for the Phillies

        Not to mention the trades they’ve used some of their prospects for, to get guys like Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence, Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, etc., etc.

        That’s of course not counting any of the international signings, like a certain Panamanian Catcher who was instrumental in the 2008 World Series win and a reliever who’s been instrumental in solidifying the bullpen this year.

      2. Not to nitpick, but Derek Lowe was a prospect when they got him and Varitek in a trade for Heathcliff Slocumb.

      3. I probably should have identified that certain Japanese pitcher as an International signing but since they paid about $100M for his rights/contract I think of that as more of a true FA signing, especially since he really wasn’t a developmental prospect at the time.

  109. GREAT DRAFT/SIGNINGS!! Probably the BEST draft for many years, even better than 2008 which was excellent.

    Many infielders–SS,2b,3b,1b(Greene, L)–some of whom will be filling places on the big club in 3-4 years. The potential seen in them should come to fruition for several at least. Filling the infield needs was a crying need in the system which has been answered. Several intriguing pitchers (Schull !, etc.). A few OFers (already many in the system now…and replacing Santana!).

    A few catchers a few looking good it seems.

    Cheap? The naysayers will still insist on their uber-critical opinions about the front office. Hope they can look beyond their rhetoric and realize the excellent potential of those signed.

    The future speaks today. Congrats to Wolever and Reuben and ownership from most of us and for them the great explosion upward in value for this franchise.

    A great number of investments for future winning for this franchise and Philly.

    ENJOY!!

  110. Im thrilled with the draft and I do enjoy how the Phillies have run the organization, but at the same time I would definitely take the Red Sox draft over ours this year. I would take Barnes,Swihart,Bradley Jr.,Owens and Kukuk before anyone that we drafted. But as we have seen our scouting guys do a great job and we signed a good deal of talent hopefully it will develop as it has in the past.

  111. Truly, not to rain on everyone’s parade, but the ‘sabermetric’ guys should have predicted—-only 2, maybe 3 guys from this draft will make MLB. Unfortunately, that is the way it is. Look at past drafts and you can see the results.

      1. They do it all—all probabilities or mathematical formulae in regards to baseball. But you missed the point——very few make it among all the embryonic hoopla.
        Here is a small sampling from seven drafts.(2007 HS prospects are approx 22 years old).
        2000—Utley 2001—Floyd, Howard, 2002—Hamels 2003—Boorn, Kendrick,
        2004—Happ, Zagurski, 2005—Outman, Zagurski 2006—Drabek, Carpenter
        ….pretty impressive rate of return for 300 plus draftees, eh?

        1. Nono. I totally get that there’s a high bust rate amongst prospects. I think they normally avoid trying to quantify/project HS prospects due to the volatility of the data. Though they might be able to show that a HS draftee has/n’t a better chance at providing a higher value.

          1. Billy Beane, A’s GM and subject of “Moneyball’ and sabermetrics has as one of his basic principles—–drafted HS player pose the highest percentage failure rate, and risk on return, thus he tries to draft accordingly. But it does not always pan out that way for him.

            1. Billy Beane is probably the most overrated general manager. His philosophy on how to win is ridiculous and it never worked.

            2. Billy Beane has always been hamstrung by a small salary. He’s done very well, last couple of seasons excluded, considering what he’s had to work with.

              He hasn’t seemed to be a very good drafter though.

    1. It is more like 4-6 players from most drafts make the majors. Half of them only get a cup of tea in the majors (September or brief injury replacement) but more make the majors out of each draft than one thinks. Only a couple typically become starters, but that is a different question.

      1. Here is a small sampling from seven drafts.(2007 HS prospects are approx 22 years old).
        2000—Utley 2001—Floyd, Howard, 2002—Hamels 2003—Bourn, Kendrick,
        2004—Happ, Zagurski, 2005—Outman, Zagurski 2006—Drabek, Carpenter, Marson
        ….pretty impressive rate of return for 300 plus draftees, eh?
        You reference during a seven draft period 28 to 42 (4 to 6 per draft) make it—I really would like to know at least 30 Philly draftees during this period who actually had one AB in the majors?

        1. Just a few years:

          2001: Floyd, Howard, Roberson
          2002: Hamels, Segovia, Korecky, Mathieson
          2003: Bourn, Kendrick, Ziegler
          2004: Golson, Jaramillo, Happ, Bisenius
          2005: Maloney, Outman, Zagurski
          2006: Drabek, Carpenter, Donald, Brown, Cardenas likely to
          2007: Schlitter. Possibles include Savery, D’Arnaud, Taylor, De Fratus Possibles include Mattair, Spencer, Rizzotti, James

          Our drafts clearly started to improve around 2006. Maybe 4-6 errs on the high side, but each draft on this list has at least 3 and the average should be at least 4 when 2007 comes in. Savery will get his LOOGY look. All the others should make their debut by next year on the likely list. Rizzotti probably gets a few DH at bats and James is at least 50-50. 2008 should be a long list also.

          1. I don’t see how you can look at those players and state that our drafts ‘clearly started to improve around 2006’. It is the big hits in the draft that builds teams. From the players listed, it’s hard to beat Utley, Howard, Hamels. Happ, Bourn also gave a nice return. Kendrick and Outman not bad, especially since Outman derailed a bit by injuries in majors.

            1. Maybe I should have said the depth in our drafts started to improve. I realize most of the impact is usually in the top couple choices, but there also seems to be an uptick in depth starting in 2006 (admittedly small sample sizes). I think the difference is we got a little more serious about overslot deals outside the top 10 rounds. Or we have been smarter in those overslot deals. Mathieson and Kendrick were smart late signs for their years but Brown in 2006 was the first big hit for a later round overslot in a while. That led to guys like James (and even the Walter, Musser, Pointer trio).

              Maybe the interest in overslot deals is also a consequence of the team winning. This means we usually do not have a $2 million top pick to sign. Even though are budget is still relatively small in total dollars, It think an overslot dollar analysis would show an upward trend starting around 2006.

        2. We should be looking at getting a significant contributor out of each draft. Getting 6 cups of coffee guys says more about MLB injuries that created short-term openings than it does about the talent of the guys devloped.

          1. Its a circular debate though.

            Money is important. But so is targeting the right guy. Stutes is a fantastic example. Signed for a very small amount after a disappointing college season. Phillies loved his fastball, which he’d gotten away from, and felt confident they could get him on the right track. Now, 3 years after being drafted, he’s pitching the 8th inning of close games for a team that is likely to set the franchise record for wins. Were his opportunities created by injuries? Yes. But he capitalized on his chance. He wasn’t a million dollar bonus baby, or even a highly drafted college guy. He was a modest draft pick in 2008, he wasn’t really even on the front burner heading in to this year. Then he learned to throw strikes, and here we are now.

            Its why evaluating the draft, and evaluating prospects in general, is so very difficult.

            1. Your last line says it all. Taken to another level, even evaluating guys in A ball is very difficult. This just further supports the Phillies philosopy of spinning their highly thought of prospects for proven talent. It’s a great luxury to affort to use your minor league system in such a way.

  112. It is great to see the team replenish the system with athletes. Moreso than any other year, they appear to have taken less risks. Some of these guys seem to have high upside but better pedigree than guys like Hewitt.

  113. Still trying to wrap my mind around the fact we now have a slew of middle infield prospects to be legitimately excited about.

    PS
    Omg, Rube couldn’t even sign hiz own nefew!? Phails are so cheap! Draft = F-

    1. Rube knew—–neff has better risk/ratio chance at MLB coming out of college, being drafted in the higher rounds then down so low in the 2010 draft.

  114. I’m guessing Johnathan Knight has a relative on this board posting and I welcome here. She’s just a fan, now, but I bet she started being one after Johnathan was drafted. In looking at the video of Johnathan, it’s apparent to me that he has quick hands and a sweet stroke that can be refined and developed. He also will take the ball the other way. I would like to welcome Johnathan’s relative here and ask her to recount for us how it all went down in the final 24 hours or so since this came out of nowhere. Was Johnathan one of the ones who went to Philly and worked out at CBP on that last weekend? What has he been doing this summer? Were you surprised when you got the call?

    1. Yes he was one that went to CBP this weekend. He had a BLAST and enjoyed every minute of it. He has been playing travel ball as much as could be afforded this summer. And yes very excited and surprised with the offer. Decision was based on the fact that he loves the game and the Phillies will be able to develop him in a way no college ever could. He is still very young at the game and in life so he has tons of work to do. He will be more than likely be one of the first at the field in the morning and one of the last to leave. OH and I’m just an insider with TONS of knowledge of him. Will not confirm or deny the relative factor of that and don’t want to make big deal at the fact if I am:) But I can and will answer any questions you have of him and you can know you got correct knowledge and not hearsay about him 🙂 You can say whatever you want about him also,I won’t get offended and neither will he (he thinks it’s cool he is being talked about) as everyone has since the draft.. it was a WHO?? Who the heck is Johnathan Knight (correct spelling with a H between the o and n) Why would they draft someone with a .221(wrong BA btw in the paper) I don’t mind here at all, everyone is entitled to their opinions. 🙂 You can get to know a little more about him tomorrow with some local newspaper articles that will be out and I can post links if you like (if the articles are good LOL) Oh I LOVE message boards btw and lurk all the time. But with all the questions about him and WHO he is, I thought I would chime in. Any other questions about him, just ask.

      1. I’m sure many of us have plenty of questions, I’m just afraid your response is going to get lost in this incredibly long post. PP anyway you could start a new post for this topic?

      2. Justa…welcome to the site. We all look forward to getting to watch Johnathan progress and root for him. Please know that we love our prospects and though we might seem tough on them at times, we really, really cheer for them. Look forward to hearing more from you.

  115. From RAJ on down to Jonathan Knight, being a fan of this organization is a pleasure. Well done on the draft. I think many people don’t realize that some of the decisions they root for would turn their team into a bumbling organization like the mets. RAJ is calculating guy who is prepared for the consequences of his decisions. That’s why he doesn’t break the draft bank, just to say he did…like so many other “wait til next year” teams.

  116. Justafan: Can you tell us anything about his senior year struglles? He showed he can hit in his junior year (.474). Injuries? Confidence? Academics? Mechanical issues with his swing? Anything else?

    1. Combination of Confidence and Mechanics. He had to work out his own issues with his swing, he just needs someone to develop the swing. No injuries…

      1. Thanks. Good to know he is with an organization that can iron everything out and get him to repeat a solid swing every time.

  117. This kid knight must have had some workout, to get signed over some other choices we talked about.

  118. Actually, I don’t think he hit .221 or so in his senior season; it was closer to .267, per a philliesmom on PPs.com. I don’t think you’ll find anyone on here who will say anything bad about Johnathan, only wish him well. This site seems to be dedicated to nurturing and supporting Phils’ prospects of all kinds. One of the most popular over the years has been Michael Schwimmer, who was never given the star treatment but was a hard worker who has positioned himself into a possible call-up sometime this year.

  119. nepp it just interest me how you scout a kid crosscheck him with region and crosscheck scouts, then based on a individual workout you say he didnt impress you like garvey did. makes no sense, that a workout oversees the times you scouted him/. hey i am not saying we should have sign garvey what do i know,but the reason got me/

    1. It seems odd to me too…honestly think it was more a money issue with them focusing on infielders instead.

  120. Reliance on the “best” scouting and coaching crews is the modus operandi of the Phils org; beyond the monies which may sometimes be limited and sometimes freed up, the main factor is that one.

    All these “supporting players” are highly valued by the org. and their “informed” analyses given much credence in regard to players not known or not credited with value. By this method they have captured Howard (5th round), Cosart (umpteenth round), Stutes, and so on. The best scouts ( a carry-over from Gillick) and coaches WANT to and DO come to this org because it is a class act and also one that “when they speak, people DO listen.” The best now come to Philly.

    Advantage: Reuben Amaro.

    To the org money IS a factor but is often given up to incisive scout thinking. Excellent scouts are on board.

    1. Gillick gets too much credit here. The Phillies had great scouts pre-Gillick and most of those scouts are still on board. Despite what some choose to believe, Gillick did not come in a turn around an underperforming scouting department. If you want to credit somebody on rebuilding the scouting emphasis and talent, start with Lee Thomas and pretty much end with Arbuckle.

      1. I respectfully disagree. I can’t give Gillick enough credit.

        When were Looper, Proefrock and Lamar brought on board? How about Charley Kerfield? What coaches/managers were hired after Gillick was hired? Most of these guys participate in scouting, and seem to have an appreciation for culture, character (the unquantifiable stuff that counts) and player development that has helped this team go from Good to Great – which is the hardest thing to do in team sports, in my opinion.

        1. I have to agree. Gillick is HOF for a reason and I don’t think he tries or takes credit for certain players. He made small moves that suggest he knew and understood how to effect culture. Moving Abreu was something Wade would never have done at least not for what Gillick let him go for. Why? Because Wade was afraid to lose and always worried about getting fleeced in a deal.

          Gillick certainly made his share of mistakes but unlike most GM’s he didn’t try to hard to defend them (They cut Eaton and Jenkins flat out if I’m not mistaken) He moved on quickly.

          And IMO the biggest thing he should get credit for is changing the attitude of this ownership group. I don’t think before he came in they really understood the mentality of being a championship caliber organization.

          1. Amen to the importance of changing of the owners’ mentality, but I do understand from where “Allentown” is coming. The emphasis when Thomas and Arbuckle came on was to finally pay attention to the system, especially to player development. They got things rolling in the right direction, but the ownership did not yet understand what it took to create a great team. Gillick put that over the top.

      2. Gillick the HOF GM? As his tenure pertained to Philly there really are no players you would say are his doing. Pat made little moves that Wade never would like the Abreu deal. The Werth Deal and so on. He also made some bad deals. But Wade and his attitude were that of a person afraid to lose and when you are afraid to lose and make mistakes you never win.

        I don’t know what happened behind the scenes but he gets credit for changing the attitude of the FO and ownership IMO.

    1. Thanks for posting these articles. He seems like an easy kid to root for … just love the attitude!!

      1. Thank you! He does have a great attitude. I will keep you posted on his progress. He has a website too, has pictures and links to articles about him and everything. It is http://www.johnathanknight.com I just updated it today from a college recruitment site to a fan like site. I hope you all like it!

    2. The first article really highlights how tough and intricate the scouting process is. A scout sees him randomly, takes a personal interest, then continues to stump for the player even after his role changes. The kid has a good workout, gets another workout, impresses, and gets a contract offer. This is something typically glossed over/not mentioned by the hype machines at BA/BP/ESPN, but it matters. Its a really tough business.

  121. PP, any idea when some of these kids will get assigned/start to play? I see Giles is already with the GCL Phils, anyone know if he’s gonna pitch anytime soon?

  122. I’m going to try and write my draft wrapup tonight. I have no idea when/if the guys will play before the end of the season. I think a few ABs and 1 or 2 short appearances for the pitchers is possible.

      1. in the past, all of the last minute signs report to the clearwater facility and are put onto the GCL team roster, for lack of better space. For the most part, with two weeks left, these guys dont see major action. I believe last year, pointer got 7 plate appearances. So we may see them for a token appearance just to give them a feel for the game.

  123. From the BA chat today about Phils draft

    Kris (Philly): Can you give us one sentence that sums up the Phils draft class?

    Jim Callis: Spent just $4.7 million, but got some intriguing high schoolers in Greene (huge power), Quinn (huge speed) and Walding (good middle-infield bat).

    1. Callis is essentially a one note guy anymore – if you spend a ton a money then you had a great draft and if you didn’t, then you didn’t. Look I want the Phillies to spend more on the draft but there are some other factors. Callis just seems to look at the spend. I think John Manuel is better.

      1. I don’t think he’s measuring our draft simply by the spend. He likes what we got. He just spoke of primo HS talent signed, so I don’t think he is totally discounting guys like Giles and Martinez.

      2. Agreed. I also get the sense that he’s much more in tune with the inner workings of BA and running the office than he is digging in on players and forming real opinions on guys. But he’s kind of in charge there, so I guess that’s his job.

      1. The insinuation, for a sizable sect of the commenting population here, is that a prospect’s worth and status is directly tied to how much he signed for. Just a tongue in cheek zinger, nothing else.

        1. Replace “directly tied” with “Strongly Correlated,” and that is one smart (though I don’t know how sizeable) sect of the commenting population here.

        2. In all fairness you do the same thing. I remember you tooting Julian Sampson’s horn back on ’07 solely because the Phils gave him like $800,000. There are many factors that determine the size of a bonus, but there IS a correlation between how much money a signee gets and how good of a prospect he is for the same reason people pay more for a Lexus than they do for a Ford.

          1. “In all fairness you do the same thing. I remember you tooting Julian Sampson’s horn back on ’07 solely because the Phils gave him like $800,000. ”

            $390,000

        1. Wasn’t it someone on here who said that Shull would be a tough sign because his family really values education?

          1. I believe it was. Saying he and his sister are from a town that sends everyone to college and sports means nothing. Later found that half his “facts” were totally incorrect.

            1. Shull has 3 brothers, no sister. He is from Mt Pleasant, not Fairfield, as the person presumed from an earlier report . His family fully supports him in his decision to play ball. He has a love for baseball, sure he didn’t get a high sign on bonus, but as far as he is concerned the chance to play professional ball is a dream come true. Now it will be up to him to follow his dream and play ball and do the best that he can. Good Luck to all the Phillie draftees. (proud grandmother)

            2. part of his deal includes paying for college if he goes that route. unless he’s going to community college for two years, add roughly $250K to his bonus. kinda/sorta?

      1. Sarcasm…….see above posts from Squire on Jim Callis’ evaluations based on monetary worth /value of a draft/prospects.

    1. I’m guessing b/c no numbers posted for JDT or Knight that they came in under $100K. Perhaps an incentive of also paying for school somewhere down the road was given to them. Either way, really like the haul. And the work you do here of course.

    2. He had a full scholarship to a quality school and the Phils have a rep for paying draftees only what they think they are worth. The size of his bonus is indicative of what they think he is worth, at least in relation to other draftees.

      1. i agree that the phillies have a pretty decent reputation for knowing where they will go with a prospect and not exceeding that. however, that does not stop them from negotiating and trying to save money. Lets use shull as an example. Now i have no real knowledge of the situation, but hypothetically. By your theory since the phillies signed him for 180 then that is what they thought he was worth. but isnt it just as likely that the phillies could have been willing to go higher but never had to? i mean if the kid was eager to play professional ball he might have accepted a lower bid. The phillies arent going to throw out their top bid in the first round. Thats poor negotiating. You know your limits, but u always start low. So maybe they were willing to get to 300 with him, so they start him out with a 100 bid and let him counter, but instead of working their way up towards 300, shull decides that the latest counter of 180 was enough. So just because he signed for 180 doesnt necessarily mean he isnt a 300 prospect.

        1. “but isnt it just as likely that the phillies could have been willing to go higher but never had to?” Definitely a possibility. Perhaps he just didn’t want to go to college right now. But generally the size of the bonus is an indicator of how talented someone is, or at least how they are perceived. If Shull’s advisor, or at the very least the guys at K-State, did not push him to ask for more than that it is an indicator of his perceived worth. Guys with bonuses at this level (Brown and Singleton each got slightly more), are usually projects. Sometimes they pan out but most of the time they don’t. Good luck to him, I hope he mows ’em down in the GCL and the instructional league!

  124. Well I sure didn’t downgrade Tyler Greene for signing for less than half of what Walding got. I think T. Greene will be the #1 prospect out of the entire draft in a year or two and I think he will be a much more rounded player than Quinn. I do appreciate PP’s point though.

    1. I fan with knowlege and speaks the Truth. Tyler Greene will be on the 40 man Roster quicker than any Draft Pick. Crazy Tools and Upside. Could be Special

    1. Yes. Bonuses are about leverage and college seniors have the least. HS players have the most because they could always do a JC year or take a college scholarship.

      1. schwimmer signed for $1000. now look at the kid…..amazing how us americans think….there is no unproven player here worth 800,000 or even 500,000 before they step on the pro field. This whole process is garbage……thats why next year the slot should eliminate over paying for these kids……so to evaluate any player based on what he signed for is ridiculous…there are numerous examples out there….and if greene and shull signed just to sign and play a game they love for a great club then we should be happy they might have saved the increase in buying a ticket to the game……noone really knows what their official package was anyway ….I just hope those kids dont get on here and read this stuff because it might just damper the love of the Phillies….6’6 lefty throwing 90 plus is something that you should be focused on…..i think the stock of this blog just went down if this is what were discussing

  125. my point on stutes was that he is a good pitcher in the major and only cost 5 thousand, so you can find jems for less money.

    1. Speaking of Stutes, his Oregon State team must have been something. He is one of many already in the big leagues. Elsberry, Joe Paterson from the D’s. etc. Would have loved to see them play together.

    2. College guys, unless drafted in the first few rounds, really do not have much leverage, other then going back for another year in college, and sometimes have to take what is offered to them to get their professional careers in motion.

  126. Tyler Greene has the Most and Best raw Tools in the Country! He wanted to play for the Phillies because he knew it was the Team for him to get to the MLB quicker than any other with the large hole at SS. He could have gotten much more Money but he wanted to play and try to get to Low A Ball next season. While the guys you talk about were looking for a payday!! Ty is looking to be the SS in Philly within three years!! You all should applaud Old School confidence and respect of a city! He is from the Shore of Maryland and Philly is a few hours away from where his family WILL see him play and play well very shortly!!!!

    1. That’s great to hear – that kind of dedication will help him to maximize his talent! Seems like he has a Phillies-style attitude as well, taking care of business. 3 years might be aggressive but I don’t think that anybody here would complain about that type of ambition!

  127. The Phillies didn’t draft Tyler and Larry because of their toolset… I can just see it now with the environmental PR advantages of the 2015 Phillies:

    Take the Initiative: Go Greene

    Going Greene with the Philadelphia Phillies

    1. Tyler Greeene is NAILS!! There is NEVER enough pressure. He was born to play in Philly!!

  128. I think another team will overpay for Rollins this off season and make the Phillies decision much easier. I see team like the Giants giving him a five year deal ala Aaron Rowand. With that said, the position will be wide open. However, let’s not discount Freddy Galvis just yet.

    1. Freddy.. No Stick at all and no speed! We won’t discount that!
      Are you comparing at BESTa utility IF prospect to a kid that could be better than Tulo?

      1. Not sure what your point is, Greene is not MLB ready now.
        You are comparing a MLB SS to a high school kid who has proven nothing. Galvis ‘stick’ is getting better as evidenced by his AAA sample, in addition to having an above average glove. Say hello to your SS for the next three years.

        1. Don’t get your hopes up. The same way that guy is fantasizing on Tyler Greene making the majors in three years, is the same as the fantasy that a minor league SS with one decent season in 5 years, will adequately replace a top Major League shortstop.

          1. Not exactly a fantasy, he is still only 21 years old, batting .317 at AAA, and getting better. Rollins minor league stats are fairly similar at AA + AAA with additional power. Won’t say they are the same, but should be given more consideration.

  129. Here’s an early, totally hypothetical question: if rules and timing were different, and Houston had wanted ONE of the Quinn/Walding/T. Greene trio… Which one do you part with, which do you keep at all costs?

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