91 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 19 May 2011”

  1. So PP – how many of these quippy comments you have lined up for future boxscores? Sad I know but am starting to look forward to them as much as the boxscores. Not sure if that’s a positive on your comments or a negative on the boxscores. Probably a little of both.

    3 more hits for out man Hewitt.

    Would have been nice to see Worley on the mound for the big club tonight!

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    1. Ya think. If someone wrote this whole situation ,it would have been regarded as fiction.
      Did ANYONE think a sick Blanton was better than a healthy Worley. As far as KK and Baez cut the deadwood.
      Great to see Stutes back.
      Schwim is packing his bags as we type and Grilli is working up a sweat.

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      1. There have been several really puzzling moves by Rube when it comes to roster management so far this year. Refusing to DL guys when they’re clearly hurt like Vic this time around or Blanton or Oswalt, or Chooch when he sat on the roster as dead weight for 10 days before the eventual DL trip. Then calling up a guy like Sardinha when he’s batting .100 in AAA over Kratz who was at least hitting somewhat well.

        Rube has really screwed the pooch so far.

        UC using an injured Vic to PH last night was pretty stupid too.

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        1. I am not a Rube apologist, but frankly I don’t think, as far as I can tell, RAJ is to blame here. You’re working in a perfect hindsight world and not thinking it through.

          You can only listen to what players and trainers tell you. Blanton said in the paper today he thought he would be all right to pitch. Chooch said the same thing about his back, something be battled all of last year. That’s why they didn’t DL him. Sardinha was the obvious choice due to his experience and defensive reputation. I realize he made a bad play, but that was Sardinha not RAJ. The Oswalt decision seems to have worked out all right thus far.

          The only one I feel that is questionable is Victorino; He did say he was optimistic about his return right until he was diagnosed with a grade 1/2 strain. I don’t know why the training staff would have pronounced Victorino okay to play without full information. But then again, it’s probably Victorino saying I’m okay to Bunt. Not Charlie Manual.

          Players play with injuries all the time. It’s a fine line. But I don’t think “Rube has screwed the pooch” on that front.

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  3. So Worley gets called up and will start next turn I guess. It sounded like on Comcast it won’t be Brown replacing Victorino. Is it Utley instead?

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    2. I’m surprised about the statements it won’t be Brown. The Phillies never telegraph roster moves. But an outfielder is injured. What outfielders are on the 40 man roster? Let’s see here, Dom Brown. Who’s the best performing outfielder we have in the high minors… let’s see Dom Brown. Who has options they can use… Dom Brown. And if it’s not Dom Brown, doesn’t it have to be Utley, and they play with one less outfielder?

      The only other option that makes sense would be a trade; but it feels too early in the season for that.

      I just feel like the Phillies are very unlikely to bring up a guy not on the 40 man for a few days leaving the potential of losing him to waivers. It would only be a longer term replacement if it was a non 40 man player.

      I wish Gillies was playing well in AA today. Oh well. Having the broad majority of the talent in the low minors makes supplementing the big team difficult.

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  4. Just t a thought. They talk about pitchers that pitch to contact. The art of getting batters out by inducing them to hit groundballs to postion players and flyballs to staight away outfielders.

    Now is it possible that the a similar outlook can be applied to hitters learning the craft most notably Singleton. Maybe the told him to remove the power from his game and focus solely on hitting singles to areas of the field ie going with the pitch. It is an intriguing way to go about the craft of hiting with a blue chip prospect who had quite a bit of natural power. Any thoughts?

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  5. Proefrock was on today’s broadcast. He started raving about Pete Orr and Wilson Valdez. I’m not so high on them.
    What happened to Aaron Altherr? I guess he is more raw than his .290 last year suggested. Still plenty of time for him to get going.
    I wonder where Hewitt’s sudden ability to steal a ton of bases is coming from. Is it Truby’s managerial philosophy? Or is it that Hewitt is finally starting to get used to the speed of a professional baseball game and the player that the Phils envisioned when they drafted him in the first round is starting to show? I think it’s a combination of both. Truby has an athletic group and he’s taking advantage of it- Altherr, Collier and I think Mendez are all running. Also, Hewitt’s numbers have dramatically improved and if you cut off a 2-28 start, it seems like he has been raking ever since. I remember, however, that last year he started out hitting around .250 and Mark Parent said he was finally having fun. By the end of the year, he wasn’t having fun anymore. Here’s hoping that he really has turned a corner this time.

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    1. This is the 1st year Hewitt’s actually been on base. Can’t steal bases when you can’t get on and it’s hard to find a rhythm of a pitcher when you’re not taking a lead and watching them.

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      1. Great, great point! Ya gotta feel good for the kid.

        Claypool was my winter special.

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    2. We have seen those flashes from Hewitt before. The first step towards making a believer out of me is that he becomes consistent over a longer period of time. Let’s just say, I hope we’re still talking about him August.

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      1. I’m with you Sandberg, but at the same time this is by far his longest stretch of decent performance. I gotta give credit where it is due. To answer the stolen base question, I’m with Bellman that you need to be on base in order to steal. He’s always had the speed/ability to steal a base, but you can’t do it from the dugout.

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    3. If you are not hitting you better be manufacturing runs. They have speed but so so bats. Thus, they run.

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  7. Since Martinez is now playing OF, I believe they will recall an IF, either Belliard or Barfield, prob Belliard. They could always get wild and crazy and call up Brown earlier than they planned or bring back Utley earlier than planned.

    For pitchers, it may not be Worley tomorrow. They may recall a reliever like Zagurski for a few days and then send him and Mathieson down when they activate Contreras and call up Worley.

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    1. Personally I would like to see Contreras get A ballers out first. The active roster doesn’t need another useless body.

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  8. I’d rather see Rich Thompson batting 2nd for Phillies than Martinez. Thompson has great speed and this season is taking a bunch of walks. I know Martinez has better versatility but nobody at AAA appears to be an obvious choice.

    I have a prejudice toward Bozied so I would like to see him called up just as a pinch hitter option. I’d really like him to play 3B with Polanco to 2B but defensively negates any slight benefit his power might bring.

    So given they need an OF and power would be better since supposedly Martinez and Orr provide speed, Brandon Moss makes the most sense. Power hitting OF with majors experience and is not performing terribly at AAA.

    Also, please bring up Kratz. Sardinha is worse than Castro, Bruntlett, Taguchi, and Nunez.

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  9. Agreed, Sardinha is WORTHLESS. But again he equaled his performance of last night as his best of the year.

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  10. On the Sardinha thing. http://www.philly.com article on last night’s game on Charles F. Manuel’s response as to why he used Cliff Lee as his first pinch hitter. Something like ” I didn’t have Victorino, so I had only 4 guys on the bench, including (Dane Sardinha). Putting Dane Sardinha in quotes means another term was used and the writer inserted the name there. Anybody know what was originally used in that quote or would like to guess?

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    1. I don’t know the exact quote but I’m fairly sure it wasn’t an issult. He probably said something like the backup catcher, etc. and the writer decided to use the player’s name.

      Most managers don’t consider their second catcher as a PH option until the end of the game because it leaves them exposed if they use them early.

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    2. You don’t want to use your only back up catcher – especially with the 1st string catcher has some back issues recently – as your first pinch hitting option. That’s what Charlie means.

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  11. See that Reading website has Rosenberg listed as starter for next game. Might be a “bullpen” game.
    Minor league transactions sees John Suomi flipped to AAA with Naughton to A(A). Might be a move to place a more veteran to get more playing time in AAA and portend another move at the MLB level. Or not.

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      1. Still looks like he would hit when he plays enough, and LH hitter, maybe he still could hit, but seems to have gone into the organizational fill in role due to management percieved defensive shortcomings, like maybe, throwing runners out and all. Seems like they now have a load of catchers to bounce around and fill -in for injuries now. They selected the AAA catchers for reasons known to them, Gosewisch looks bigger and stronger at AA, and still got the D and hitting more, Valle is the force at A(A) and suppose you have to give Rupp an opportunity. So , there you go , not much playing time , not much chance of improvement.

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  12. I really wish we would have drafted Kyle Lobstein, that Tampa system is just a pitching factory. Davis, Hellickson, McGee, Moore, Colome…. Not knocking the Phillies at all because they have had success with their approach, but Tampa really knows how to draft and develop. Take the best player available at each pick with no regard for signability.

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  13. Is it too soon to start thinking about what RAJ might do at the deadline if the offense continues to struggle? My sense is that sometime in the next 2 weeks, Brown gets his shot, but if these guys are still cranking out a AAA-level offense by the All-Star break, does RAJ pull the trigger on a deal (which would probably include a coulple of guys from Clearwater) for somebody like Pence?

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  14. I think Geancarlo Mendez is now officially on my radar – nice plate discipline (2BB last night). I’d like to see some more power, but 12 XBH out of 34 hits isn’t too shabby. Any word on the caliber of his glove at third?

    – Jeff

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    2. He’s better than Altherr at 3B but he’s more of a utility guy. He’s played 1B, 2B, 3B, corner OF and he might have the speed for CF. If he continues to hit, I’d call him the RH Dobbs, which is no disrespect. Andyb and I have had an eye on him since the DSL and he has not disappointed yet. In fact, he surprises me — to the upside — all the time.

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  15. It seems the MLB clubs offense has quietly morphed from 2nd in the NL to somewhere near the bottom. While keeping Werth (give his stats) wouldn’t have changed a thing, watching this team right now is like being put in an iron maiden. If you’re Rube I’m not sure what options you really have, let’s evaluate the roster by OPS vs. Career for that player:

    “Without Utley” “With Utley”
    2011 Career 2011 Career
    Jimmy 0.702 0.762 Jimmy 0.702 0.762
    Poly 0.804 0.759 Poly 0.804 0.759
    Vic 0.846 0.775 Vic 0.846 0.775
    Ryan 0.749 0.937 Ryan 0.749 0.937
    Ibanez 0.636 0.818 Ibanez 0.636 0.818
    Ben F 0.668 0.763 Ben F 0.668 0.763
    Valdez 0.587 0.611 Utley 0.8 0.894
    Ruiz 0.652 0.744 Ruiz 0.652 0.744
    Ave. 0.705 0.771 Ave. 0.732 0.806

    I used a .8 OPS for Utley in 2011 just given his age, regression from his career years, and injury situation though I included his career numbers anyway. So, what does this wonderful analisys tell me?

    That even with Utley, playing at a respectable ops, the team ops for the year would have only improved to .732, a far cry from the team career average. Perhaps this is a product of a team headed in the wrong direction, or perhaps it’s just bad luck. The 2011 BABIP is .284, down from a 2010 of .291. This 2011 number ranks the Phillies as 17th of the 30 teams in the league, in other words, they’re not unlucky, they’re not lucky, they’re average. So no help there.

    The next question (since this is a minor league site) what help can the Phillies expect from the minors? The only viable offensive threat in the minor leagues right now is Dominic Brown (or maybe Rizzotti, but he isn’t going anywhere and is a defensive liability). So how do we evaluate what type of impact D. Brown would likely have on team performance? Well, let’s look at the 4 rookies with enough at bats to qualify as starters in MLB last year, average ops? .749… Now, I also think this number is a bit generous, compared to this year’s rookie average of .719. But let’s use it anyway; after all, Dominic is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. With Dominic Brown, the phillies have a choice; replace Ibanez or Ben Francisco (though obviously Vic is out at the moment as well). By replacing one or the other, the team ops rises as follows:

    “Without Utley, Brown for Ibanez” “With Utley, Brown for Ibanez”
    2011 Career 2011 Career
    Jimmy 0.702 0.762 Jimmy 0.702 0.762
    Poly 0.804 0.759 Poly 0.804 0.759
    Vic 0.846 0.775 Vic 0.846 0.775
    Ryan 0.749 0.937 Ryan 0.749 0.937
    Brown 0.749 0.749 Brown 0.749 0.749
    Ben F 0.668 0.763 Ben F 0.668 0.763
    Valdez 0.587 0.611 Utley 0.8 0.894
    Ruiz 0.652 0.744 Ruiz 0.652 0.744
    Ave. 0.719 0.762 Ave. 0.746 0.797

    “Without Utley, Brown for Ben” “With Utley, Brown for Ben”
    2011 Career 2011 Career
    Jimmy 0.702 0.762 Jimmy 0.702 0.762
    Poly 0.804 0.759 Poly 0.804 0.759
    Vic 0.846 0.775 Vic 0.846 0.775
    Ryan 0.749 0.937 Ryan 0.749 0.937
    Ibanez 0.636 0.818 Ibanez 0.636 0.818
    Brown 0.749 0.749 Brown 0.749 0.749
    Valdez 0.587 0.611 Utley 0.8 0.894
    Ruiz 0.652 0.744 Ruiz 0.652 0.744
    Ave. 0.715 0.769 Ave. 0.742 0.804

    So, what have I/we learned? Utley and Brown playing the whole year to this point would have improved the team OPS by .027/.023 (depending who you replaced) operating under the assumptions of a .800 ops for Utley and .749 for brown. But, this number would have still resulted in a team ops (.746/.742) well below the team career average of .804. That said, additional comparative results reveals this OPS would place them 3rd in the AL with that starting 8 (I used AL because i didn’t include the pitchers spot and am using averages, the team average ops including pitcher and pinch hitters is currently .680) So, to do an NL analysis, I am subtracting .039 from the projected team OPS (the difference between the current starting 8 ops and current team ops). So we end up with full team projected OPS of .707/.703 (depending on if you replace Ibanez or Ben Francisco with Brown). This would place the Phillies at 18th, just under Atlanta.

    So more or less, Ruben’s only choice is to trade for help unless the rest of the team starts achieving their career average. (Which given the current BABIP being average, and an aging roster, this think is less likely to happen fully, though the offense will undoubtably improve from it’s current state as things are never as bad as they seem)

    So, bringing this back to the minors, pick 3 of our top 10 (and 1 of top 3) prospects who you’d be willing to give up for offensive help, and which position would you acquire?

    Using PP’s top 30, I trade Colvin Gilles and Blanton if I can. If no one will take Blanton then I suppose Worley or two of our 11-20 prospects and the position I acquire is any of the outfield spots though the cheapest would be left field.

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    1. Damnit, my i screwed up the labels on my charts. It should read “2011 Stats” then “Career”. Sorry for the confusion, I aways notice things like that AFTER i post! 😦

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    2. AN injured Blanton is untradeable. At this point, I would guess he has season ending surgery in his future.

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      1. Makes me wish we’d have traded him before the season started. By you’re absolutely right, unless he rights the ship by mid-june or so, and has a good run leading up to the all-star break, he’s all but cooked from a value perspective.

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    3. Part of what’s going on – a big part – is that hitting league wide is down (continuing a recent trend). So you would expect the team OPS to be below the career OPS, all else being equal. Add Utley, and the team is … above average. Not a LOT above average, but good enough to be the least team in the league given our pitching. Of course, that’s without Brown; Brown helps some, hard to be sure how much. Maybe a little, maybe a lot. Also, the slightly below average babip does make a difference; if it is indeed a matter of luck (and I’d be inclined to think it is), that also suggests some improvement merely from regression to the mean.

      Of course, a lot of what is going on RIGHT NOW is other injuries, plus some bad luck in terms of everyone else slumping at once. To evaluate this team on recent performance (not what you were doing, but others have) is absurd.

      If the team gets healthy it will be fine. If we can pick up another bat at a low price, fine. Or even a REALLY good bat at a higher price, though that is IMO unlikely for salary reasons. But it isn’t imperative, and this is not the time to panic or mortgage the future.

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      1. Larry I agree with much of your post, but I also feel like given Ibanez departing next year, we essentially have 2 outfield spots to fille in the next 10 months. Even if the phillies outright give brown the starting job in right field, that still leaves another spot, wide open. I think now is the time to bring in a 10 million dollar/year player to play left field and replace Ibanez for 2-3 years. Our minor league system just doesn’t have a solid left fielder (hits for significant power and median average) who will be ready for a full time spot on the team in the next 2 years. Just won’t happen.

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        1. As I said it depends on the cost and who is available. Most of the names I’ve heard don’t excite me, and the ones that do are probably going to be overpriced or unavailable at any price. I just think that inevitably we’re looking at a couple of down years in terms of the offense; hopefully the pitching will carry us through.

          Going into next season with Francisco as a regular may not be ideal, but there are worse fates. The Phillies are not the Yankees in terms of payroll. Even with some money freed up next year, and hopefully another increase in the payroll, there won’t be a lot of money for a truly top of the line OFer, even if one is available. Every week Madson’s price goes up, for example. They really have to sign Rollins at this point, too, hopefully for a reasonable price. Other players on the rooster have pay increases coming. Yeah, they can afford 10 million/yr, probably, but these days 10 million buys you mediocrity. Maybe a little better than Francisco.

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  16. I’m also not a RAJ apologist but the guy is a Stanford Grad if I am not mistaken. Maybe that gives me a false sense of security in this situation because he has demonstrated an ability to out smart himself at times.

    None the less he has a lot of chain saws in the air to juggle at one time. The way I see it the only mistake he can make is to lose focus on what the strengths of his team are at this point which is pitching.

    Knee jerk reactions because the fans are panicing wouldn’t be prudent. What ever happens at the 5th starter position is irrelevant. 2B is irrelevant until you know what Utley is going to be.

    Based on what I have seen Valdez is my every day 2b until Utely Returns. Mayberry is my everyday CF until Vic returns. Ibanez my LF and Francisco and Gload platoon in RF. I’ll live and die by that sword until July 1 when hopefully Brown is ready.

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    1. Just looking at my post above on team/player OPS, you’ll be 2-5 games out of the division lead by that point if Florida and Atlanta keep up their pace. Glad you’re willing to give that away, I’m not. I really feel like we have no choice given LF this year (and lack there-of next year), current player performance, average roster age, etc…

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      1. If you recall, last year the Phils were about 7 games out of first two weeks into July. They have been a second-half team for the last 5 years or so. Let’s just hope they can stay competetive until we get everybody back. The Phils will be fine.

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        1. On July 23rd, to be exact. Three games over .500 (49-46) and 7 games back.

          Finished with the best record in MLB.

          If Utley is running 4.19 to 1B (as Philly.com reported today), he’ll be back soon, and he should be fine. Give Brown another 50-60 AAA at-bats, and then get his butt up here as well.

          Unless we get an injury to a major piece of the rotation (Halladay, Lee or Hamels), we should be able to get to October. My worry is not having enough offense once we get there. I am a BIG fan of Hunter Pence…given the current ownership situation, I don’t know if he will be made available, but if he DOES hit the market he is one guy that I would consider giving up a couple of our best prospects to get.

          This current team has 2011/12 to have a high probability to play in October and win another ring…and if it takes giving up one of our stud pitching prospects and another piece to get a guy like Pence, I’m in.

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          1. Why the Hunter Pence love? Serious question. Career wise, he’s basically Francisco with 2 more singles, one more 2B and 2 fewer BB for every 100 PA. Yes, I’d rather have Pence, but not enough to pay him more than twice as much and give up 2 top prospects.

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            1. If you want to be pedantically precise, it’s one LESS double, one more triple, less than one more HR (7/10) and 3 singles (partly because of more AB), one less BB and one less HBP. Still not a huge edge to Pence. Don’t get me wrong, all else equal I’d prefer Pence, but not at the cost of 2 top prospects & much reduced off season salary flexibility.

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            2. I agree. Pence sounds like an attractive player on the surface, but dig a little and you’ll realize there’s not all that much there. He’s okay, but he’s quite overrated.

              It’s hard to figure out precisely who can get at a somewhat affordable price. If the price is reasonable, I’m fine with a rent a player, such as Beltran. If the price is higher, hopefully, they can secure at least an extra year or two.

              Honestly, I think, given the state of the team’s pitching, the list of untouchables is getting shorter and shorter. I guess Brown is an untouchable, but aside from that, I think everyone else is probably in play except maybe Biddle (I cannot imagine their trading him). Mind you, I’m not advocating one way or another as to who should or should not be in play. I am only trying to project what I think the team is thinking.

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            3. You want to compare Pence with Francisco?

              The guy is over double the WAR, is 50 points higher in OPS (despite playing all the time, as opposed to Francisco’s cherry-picked AB’s against lefties), he’s a legit 25 HR guy who plays OUTSTANDING defense (from 2008-2010, he had 41 outfiled assists and the only RF with a higher UZR is Ichiro).

              Wow….just wow.

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            4. Sigh … I stayed away from advanced metrics, because I prefer to stay away from them when possible, but if you want to go there:

              (1) OPS is a garbage stat, but 50 points in OPS is not a huge gap. It’s significant, but over the course of a year it’s less than 10 runs.

              (2) You want to look at WAR? Obviously Pence’s advantage there is partly a matter of greater playing time. Over the course of a year, he has an edge – of about one WAR per year. Don’t get me wrong, one win over the course of a year is worth something. Is it worth 2 top prospects AND 10 million a year (at least) in salary which can’t be used on another acquisition? Absolutely not, not even close. Adding Pence would probably mean saying goodbye to Madson or Rollins. You want to open up one of those holes just to gain one WAR a year in the OF? Not me.

              (3) Pence is not overall an outstanding defensive player. By UZR he is … okay. Better than average. Not great, yes better than Francisco, but not great. Many subjective evaluations of his defense are worse; honestly UZR is one of the less reliable analytical stats. In any event, this is acounted for in the WAR comparison, and is one of the reasons Pence has an edge, anemic as it is.

              (4) The left/right issue is bunk. Francisico has more than twice as many PA against righties as lefties. That’s about normal.

              (5) Pence is a 25 HR guy … and Francisco is (with full time play) a legitimate 20 HR guy. All taken into account by prior analysis.

              Adding Pence for 2 top prospects would be the worst trade of Amaro’s career, if he made it. Far, far, far worse than the Lee deal.

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            5. Well, Pence’s overall WAR numbers over the last 4 years are 0.7, 1.7, 0.9 and 0.5 (this year). Remember, AAAA replacement value is 2 WAR, so the numbers are pretty bad.

              His defensive numbers are very bad a total of -1.7.

              So, no, I am not excited about their trading for Hunter Pence.

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            6. As much as I appreciate the support, let me add a clarification and minor disagreement. There are different WAR systems out there; the other commonly cited one puts him in a better light than the one you quoted, mainly because it sees his defense differently (better). If you split the difference, he does have an edge over Franciso, but it’s a small one as I said.

              The disagreement: AAAA replacement is not 2 WAR. By definition, replacement value is zero. But he still isn’t worth the price – salary or prospects.

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            7. I don’t know how you can project Francisco as a 20 HR guy. He has finally gotten a chance to be an everyday guy – and he is failing. He’s not the first…and won’t be the last. There is a reason why he has been a 4th OF, and we are seeing it now, IMO.

              The difference between Pence and Francisco on defense is not small…and given the Phillies offensive struggles, this team needs to play defense at a high level. Francisco is simply not an everyday RF defensively – nothing in his career has suggested that, and he’s certainly not showing that now.

              Even if you think that UZR is overrated, Pence is certainly an above-average RF.

              I don’t know if trading for Pence means the end of Rollins and Madson in 2012. Unless you think that Francisco is going to turn things around and be a 500 PA guy next year, they will need another OF to put with Brown and Victorino. And while I like Mayberry (and he may turn out to be the answer…I just can’t see us actually assuming that will be the case), the more likely scenario is he takes Francisco’s place as the 4th OF.

              There is nobody in the minors who will be ready…so what are you going to do next year? Who is going to be your 3rd outfielder? Are you going to try to find ANOTHER cheap stopgap to be the RH hitting, middle of the order guy to balance out the lineup? Well…RAJ’s plans for 2011 worked well there – you think?

              Perhaps I am wrong, but I would think that a change of scenery (and playing for a team that isn’t out of the playoff race by June 1) might get Pence back to his 2008/09 levels – where he was a 3.5-4.0 WAR stud. He still has two more years of arbitration after this one…and he could actually play CF in 2013 if they choose not to re-sign Victorino.

              It does come down to what they would have to give up for him…but in my mind, one of our good young pitchers and another bottom-of-the-top-10 prospect doesn’t seem ridiculously unreasonable if your goal is to try to win another ring before the 2012 window closes (with Hamels, Polanco and Victorino all potentially gone).

              If you don’t agree with me, I respect your opinion.

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            8. That’s helpful on replacement value. It wasn’t self-evident that 0 was replacement if one posited that the number reflected wins contributed, much like the win share method. But, having looked at it again, yes, I see it appears that 0 is essentially AAAA value. That being said, Pence is not a particularly valuable player. In my view, Victorino is clearly a better player than Pence, as is Michael Bourn. There’s no reason to raid the system to obtain Hunter Pence.

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            9. So, I’m sitter here trying to figure out where the f these crappy WAR numbers are coming from…

              Ah-ha.

              The dreaded UZR-versus-TotalZone debate.

              So FanGraphs (which uses UZR) has Pence’s past four years’ WAR at 3.8, 3.1, 4.0 and 3.0…which are WAY better than Baseball Reference’s WAR numbers – probably because TotalZone views Pence as a below-average RF (and if that is the case, I would LOVE to see Francisco’s TotalZone rating).

              Pence – a below-average fielder?

              I would love to run that one by MLB scouts.

              To MY naive eyes (as a 40-year baseball fan who played in college), Pence is a fine OF…certainly above average…so I would love to see how TotalZone comes up with the assertion that he is below average.

              Finally, if UZR says “Pence good” and TotalZone says “Pence bad”, what is the tie-breaker? My opinion? Your opinion?

              How about Dewan’s Fielding Bible? What do THEY say about Pence’s defense?

              Well, I do not pay for the service, but Pence finished 2nd to Ichiro in 2009. For the 3-year period 2008-2010 (he tends to look a lot at 3-year periods), Pence’s 36 runs saved in RF was tied with Ichiro for the most of any RF in MLB.

              Does that sound “below-average” to you?

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            10. Correction – that should be 39 runs saved from 2008-10.

              Also, according to Dewan, Pence was the 2nd best RF in the NL in 2008.

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    2. I’m not sure how much of Amaro’s human biology degree from Stanford translates into baseball GM proficiency. If that were the case, I’d take Keith Law’s government degree from Harvard and Theo Epstein’s American Studies’ degree from Yale over Amaro’s, considering the former two entered college purely based on academic merit as opposed to athletics. Personally, I believe Amaro inherited a good farm system and a team at its peak, allowing him to make “no-brainer” moves such as trading for Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. However, Amaro’s made a bunch of questionable moves (signing of Ibanez to a three-year deal, extending Howard for five more years, signing Baez, not addressing the corner OF situation prior to the season, etc.). At some point, Amaro, like the players, will have to be held accountable, especially if Howard continues to regress and if the Phillies are financially handicapped for a 2-3 year period because of the contract.

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      1. I like Amaro, but I also criticize him for a MLB low draft and LA spend in 2009 and 2010. An extra $5M-$6M invested in the last couple of years might have given the Phils 3-4 more top prospects to deepen the trade bait pool for a veteran player.

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      2. Of Course not and I killed him for Lee to Seattle Trade however he is not a dope by any means and unlike Law and Epstein he did play professionally so I think he is more than qualified to understand the teams problems.

        And really what GM doesn’t have some questionable moves under their reign?

        I guess all I am saying is that he knows he needs to make a move for a bat. We’ll see how he times such a move; who he lands and what he gives up for it.

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    3. Pick out a nice box then. You have much more faith than me.
      Cholly was on the radio and wants Brown badly. Also took a bitch slap at Valdez as a starter.

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      1. There are no moves that could be made in the short run that avoid a rough spot. If guys the healthy regulars start hitting again & the pitching continues at a high level, they can survive a couple weeks more of Valdez & company. They really don’t have a choice. Injuries suck, that’s all there is to it. The only thing worse than a bunch of injuries hitting all at once … is a panic move brought on by a bunch of injuries hitting all at once.

        Now, all that said I’d like to see Brown up ASAP. But let’s keep in mind that Brown isn’t a serious option in CF – there is no one in the system that fills the hole in CF with Victorino out. Brown means that Ibanez (hopefully) sits and that would be an upgrade. But until people get healthy, there are going to be some holes in the lineup. No use complaining about it – nothing to be done and not managements fault.

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        1. I’m already on board with Brown coming up immediately and being added to the OF mix but I would disagree that it’s a given that he would be an immediate upgrade over any of the other options they currently have in the OF

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          1. He might not be an upgrade (or a big one, in any event) right away, but, to me, the point would be for him to get enough at bats so that, by the fall, you are dealing with a much better adjusted hitter.

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      2. I like the Charlie is chafing over some of the personnel moves. In private, he must be telling folks something like “look, we got great pitching and defense, but, at the same time, we need some damned hitters. I’d like to see some damned hitting on this team.”

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  17. Why doesn’t Rich Thompson get a chance in the bigs as a 5th outfielder? I get he’s not on the 40 man but neither was Dane. Seems like a solid all around player who could pinch run, pinch hit a little, and do some little things well for us in a limited role. The Dane’s, Orr’s, Valdez’s, Francisco’s, and Martinez’s of the world are not grabbing this opp and running with it that’s for sure…

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  18. well its all amaro fault.seems to be the answer. not spending enough for top prospect in the draft, the low budject in latin america,has nothing to do with it???? if blanton has surgery that would free up money[if the insurance would kick in] To pursue a outfielder.

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    1. I don’t know why I bother … there are quite a few problems with this argument, most of which have been set forth at length previously on this board. But no need to go into all of that: Amaro hasn’t been in charge long enough for any real or imagined problems with spending on prospects to have effect on the major leagues. Outside of the top 2 or 3 people drafted each year (and then not always), even the best prospects generally take 3 plus years to be major league ready.

      As for the silly Blanton insurance idea, even if they insured his contract (unlikely), that’s not how insurance of BB contracts generally works. Figuring deductibles & the fact that insurance is generally not for 100% of the salary, they wouldn’t get much at all (if anything). It generally only comes into play in a meaningful way for career ending type injuries for really large contracts.

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  19. Anyone heard news on players the Phils scouts have been on for the draft? I wonder if they’d take Jackie Bradley Jr. if he fell to them with the sandwich pick. I’d really like to grab Josh Bell or Baez personally if eithe rmake it to the sandwich pick

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    1. That “sandwich ” pick is the 39th pick. If any of those guys are there , it’s a miracle.

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      1. I believe Jackie Bradley had an injury. Not sure if it is enough to knock him down to the supplemental round. Tampa has three picks before the Phillies, and Javier Baez and Josh Bell are just the type of high upside players they like to draft. I agree it would be a miracle if any one of those players fell to the Phillies.

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  20. High Cheese saying Domonic Brown and Herndond being recalled. Mathieson is going back to AAA.

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    1. I guess he “got ready” overnight. It’s funny how watching a team score 3 runs or less everynight suddenly makes your best hitting prospect look a lot more appealing.

      Well, I thought they would wait until late June, but, understandably, they need to win some games now and turn the tide. Domonic Brown is a player, but, you know what? They don’t need him to be great. They just need him to be okay because what they got out there now . . . well . . . it ain’t okay.

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      1. I think adding Brown can’t hurt… especially since he showed, even last year when he struggled, that he could take a walk and take some pitches. I’d love to bat him in the two hole in front of Polanco.

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        2. I only like it if they intend to put him in the line-up every night unless maybe a tough lefty is on the hill. Have they announced tonights starting line-up?

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    2. On a related note – I would have hoped that Worley would be promoted and not Herndon. I wonder if they want Worley to dominate more at AAA so they can showcase him for a trade. If the Phils trade for a hitter this year, Worley is a clear candidate to be shopped and shipped, particularly if they are looking to acquire a quality player.

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      1. They could still promote Worley in a few days for a start next week(I hope they do), they need a emergency guy since Kendrick and Biaz both through a lot last night and Herndon fits that bill.

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  21. And another thing . . . It has gotten to the point where you can put no stock . . . I mean zero . . . in anything Amaro says. I can understand why he would be coy when setting up a trade or big signing. But hiding his cards or intentionally misleading the public when dealing with the issue of promoting Domonic Brown or in explaining the extent of an injury or putting a guy in the DL? What’s the point?

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  23. So later this week we’ll see Blanton DL’d and Worley recalled. Then we’ll see Herndon optioned and Contreras activated. And we’ll see Utley activated and Orr optioned would be my guess.

    My guess is vs LHP the OF will be Ibanez, Mayberry, and Francisco most nights and vs RHP will be Ibanez, Martinez, and Brown. When Victorino returns, Martinez loses his AB’s and if Mayberry is hot and Ibanez not, Mayberry will probably take a few AB’s in LF vs LHP.

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    1. I don’t get why they don’t DL Blanton now and call up an extra reliever or bench player?

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  24. Herndon being called up has nothing to do with Worley. He will be recalled to be the 5th starter when they put Blanton on the DL. Herndon got called up to provide bullpen depth the next night or two since KK and Mathieson pitched multiple innings last night. Herndon will be optioned back when they activate Contreras next week.

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  25. Oh, okay, I’m sorry, I missed a step. Blanton hasn’t been DL’d yet, so Worley is still likely to be promoted when that occurs. Crap, I hope Blanton is DL’d for long enough to lose his job. I felt the same way when Lidge went out – it was one of the better things that happened to the club this year.

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    1. This is silly. Amaro has his faults. But how can you call a guy who acquires Halladay, Oswalt and Lee (twice, mind you) without trading away any key players on the major league team and without gutting the team’s minor league farm system or even trading away the team’s top prospect (Brown) a bad GM. That makes no sense. You can criticize some of his moves to be sure, but I don’t think there is ANY historical precedent for a GM acquiring starting pitchers like that in such a short period of time. And this does not even take into account how he was able to convince a total stud like Roy Halladay to take so many few dollars and years than he would otherwise command.

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  28. Better late than never.

    1. OF – Domonic Brown (Lehigh Valley) – (.341) Up with the big club
    2. RHP – Brody Colvin (Clearwater)- (0-1, 6.97) – DNP
    3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.260) –0 for 3 with 2 K’s
    4. RHP – Jared Cosart (Clearwater) – (4-3, 3.52) – DNP
    5. RHP – Trevor May (Clearwater)- (3-2, 3.89) – DNP
    6. C – Sebastian Valle (Clearwater) – (.337) – DNP
    7. LHP – Jesse Biddle (Lakewood) – (2-5, 4.70) – DNP
    8. RHP – Vance Worley (Lehigh valley) – (2-2, 3.51) – DNP
    9. OF – Tyson Gillies (Reading) – DNP
    10. RHP – Justin De Fratus (Reading) – (2-0, 2.95, 3 SV) – DNP
    11. RHP – Julio Rodriquez (Clearwater)- (5-2, 2.44) – 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB and 1 K (loss)
    12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.184) DNP
    13. OF – Domingo Santana (Lakewood) – (.239) 1 for 4 with a K
    14. RHP – JC Ramirez (Reading) – (5-2, 2.92) – DNP
    15. OF – Aaron Altherr (Lakewood) – (.186) – 0 for 4 with 2 K’s
    16. RHP – Jon Pettibone (Clearwater) – (3-3, 1.69) DNP
    17. C – Cameron Rupp (Lakewood) – (.198) – 0 for 3 with a BB and 2 K’s
    18. OF – Jiwan James (Clearwater) – (.233) – 1 for 4 with a 2B (7) and 3 K’s
    19. 2B – Harold Garcia (Reading) – (.300) Out for the season with a torn ACL
    20. RHP – Kevin Walter – Season hasn’t started
    21. RHP – Colby Shreve (Lakewood) – (2-3, 4.85) – DNP
    22. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (Reading) – (0-2, 3.50, 3 SV) – DNP
    23. RHP – Michael Schwimer (Lehigh Valley) – (1-0, 2.45, SV) – DNP
    24. 1B – Matt Rizzotti (Reading) – (.359) – DNP
    25. RHP – Austin Hyatt (Reading) – (5-2, 4.19) – DNP
    26. OF – Leandro Castro (Clearwater) – (.275) – 0 for 4 with 3 K’s
    27. OF – Miguel Alvarez (Lakewood) –(.250) – 3 for 4 with 3 RBI
    28. OF – Kelly Dugan – Season hasn’t started
    29. RHP – Josh Zeid (Reading) – (1-3, 6.28) – DNP
    30. RHP – Percival Garner – Season hasn’t started

    Others:

    1B – Cody Overbeck (Reading) – (.271) DNP
    1B – Darin Ruf (Clearwater) – (.282) – 0 for 4
    3B – Ronnie Belliard (Lehigh Valley) – (.278) – DNP
    3B – Geancarlo Mendez (Lakewood) – (.276) 1 for 3 with 2 runs, 2 BB’s and a K
    SS – Freddy Galvis (Redding) – (.243) –DNP
    OF – Derrick Mitchell (Redding)- (.258) – DNP
    OF – Joe Savery (Clearwater) –(.346) – 0 for 3 with 2K’s
    RHP – David Buchanan (Lakewood) – (5-2, 2.29) – DNP
    RHP – Lisalberto Bonilla (Lakewood) – (0-1, 1.17, 1 SV) –3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB and 3 K’s (save)
    LHP – Mario Hollands (Lakewood) –(2-3, 4.43) – DNP

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  29. Friday night’s action

    1. OF – Domonic Brown (Lehigh Valley) – (.341) Up with the big club
    2. RHP – Brody Colvin (Clearwater)- (0-1, 6.97) – DNP
    3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.252) –0 for 3 with 3 K’s
    4. RHP – Jared Cosart (Clearwater) – (4-3, 3.17) – 8 IP, 2 H, 1 , 1 ER, 3 BB and 3 K’s
    5. RHP – Trevor May (Clearwater)- (3-2, 3.89) – DNP
    6. C – Sebastian Valle (Clearwater) – (.337) – DNP
    7. LHP – Jesse Biddle (Lakewood) – (2-5, 4.70) – DNP
    8. RHP – Vance Worley (Lehigh valley) – (2-2, 3.51) – DNP
    9. OF – Tyson Gillies (Reading) – DNP
    10. RHP – Justin De Fratus (Reading) – (2-0, 2.95, 3 SV) – DNP
    11. RHP – Julio Rodriquez (Clearwater)- (5-2, 2.44) – DNP
    12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.190) 1 for 2
    13. OF – Domingo Santana (Lakewood) – (.239) DNP
    14. RHP – JC Ramirez (Reading) – (5-2, 2.92) – DNP
    15. OF – Aaron Altherr (Lakewood) – (.186) – DNP
    16. RHP – Jon Pettibone (Clearwater) – (3-3, 1.69) DNP
    17. C – Cameron Rupp (Lakewood) – (.202) – 1 for 3 with a BB and a K
    18. OF – Jiwan James (Clearwater) – (.235) – 1 for 3 with a HR (2), a BB and a K
    19. 2B – Harold Garcia (Reading) – (.300) Out for the season with a torn ACL
    20. RHP – Kevin Walter – Season hasn’t started
    21. RHP – Colby Shreve (Lakewood) – (2-3, 4.55) – 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB and s K
    22. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (Reading) – (0-2, 3.15, 3 SV) – 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB and 2 K’s
    23. RHP – Michael Schwimer (Lehigh Valley) – (2-0, 1.90, SV) – 2 IP, 1 H 0 R, 0 BB and 3 K’s (win)
    24. 1B – Matt Rizzotti (Reading) – (.354) – 0 for 2 with a run, 3 BB and a K
    25. RHP – Austin Hyatt (Reading) – (5-2, 4.19) – DNP
    26. OF – Leandro Castro (Clearwater) – (.275) – DNP
    27. OF – Miguel Alvarez (Lakewood) –(.256) – 1 for 2 with a run, 2 BB and a K
    28. OF – Kelly Dugan – Season hasn’t started
    29. RHP – Josh Zeid (Reading) – (1-3, 6.28) – DNP
    30. RHP – Percival Garner – Season hasn’t started

    Others:

    1B – Cody Overbeck (Reading) – (.276) 2 for 5 with a run
    1B – Darin Ruf (Clearwater) – (.274) – 0 for 4 with a K
    3B – Ronnie Belliard (Lehigh Valley) – (.268) – 0 for 5
    3B – Geancarlo Mendez (Lakewood) – (.276) 1 for 4 with a HR (2) and a K
    SS – Freddy Galvis (Redding) – (.239) –0 for 3 with a BB and a K
    OF – Derrick Mitchell (Redding)- (.258) – 1 for 4 with a K
    OF – Joe Savery (Clearwater) –(.346) – DNP
    RHP – David Buchanan (Lakewood) – (5-2, 2.29) – DNP
    RHP – Lisalberto Bonilla (Lakewood) – (0-1, 1.17, 1 SV) –DNP
    LHP – Mario Hollands (Lakewood) –(2-3, 4.43) – DNP

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