August 24th Discussion

Box Score Recap

Get your box scores right here.

GCL Phillies cancelled
Williamsport postponed
Lakewood postponed
Clearwater cancelled
Reading won 6-4.
Lehigh Valley won 7-0

* The weather sucks
* I’m on the Harold Garcia bandwagon
* Justin De Fratus has been awesome at Reading. Every time he pitches well, I feel pretty great, as I started that bandwagon waaaaay back when. I think he is in the majors next year, and the Phillies damn well better protect him this winter.
* Overbeck with an .881 OPS in 58 August AB, which is something, but not much (small sample size, obv)

Go!

43 thoughts on “August 24th Discussion”

  1. Anyone else notice Garcia’s HBP/GDP ratio is nearly 5:1?
    He’s been hit by 72 pitches in his minor career but amazingly only hit into 15 groundball doubleplays.
    Utley is roughly 2:1 in his MLB career.
    Valdez this season has been hit one time but has grounded into 16 double plays.
    It’s a weird but productive stat.

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  2. That could be because pitchers in the minors are wild and the defense’s are not good enough to turn DPs consistently against fast runners. Kind of difficult to compare low minor league numbers to the major leagues.
    Correia hits a guy every game. That would never happen the majors.

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  4. I noticed that Savery was the DH as well. Is there a way to find out what his stats (probably less than 50 abs) as a minor league hitter are?

    – Jeff

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  5. You know, I wonder if DeFratus is going to get a call-up in September along with some of the other fine minor league relievers we have. My feeling is that the major league bullpen is very, very close to becoming dominant again. One more reliable reliever could be all that is needed.

    In any event, James, you did seem to see his emergence coming. Also, I recall the minor league writer who, this past winter, raved about DeFratus’s potential as a reliever and who said something to the effect that his stuff plays up “crazy better” from the bullpen. It looks like both of you were spot on correct.

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  6. You don’t hear much about Spidale (Reading) because he is 28 years old, but did anyone realize that the guy is playing center field, has stolen 30 bases (in 40 tries) scored 69 runs and is hitting .305? I did not realize that he had that kind of speed. What he lacks is power (3 HRs this year).

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  7. I’m on the Garcia bandwagon as well, to an extent, but I’m curious how far on the bandwagon you are. As in: think he can be a Major league regular, or think he can play multiple positions well enough to be a super sub?

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  8. DeFratus will definitely be protected this winter and I agree that he has a good chance to make his debut next year mid season, although not out of spring training. There is zero chance that he’s called up in Sept this year. Harold garcia continues to improve his stock and might be a good trading chip for a veteran reliever this winter or for more bench help. He can’t play SS and will therefore not be a Ute at the major league level and the Phils have a pretty good second baseman already.

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  10. It was Savery’s first game at DH since 7/29/08 when he played for CLearwater. He has pinch hit around a half a dozen times this year.

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  11. I like Garcia too, but his batting average on balls in play is pretty high on the year. Same arguement that was made against Rizzotti. Garcia is pretty fast so he’s a guy that’s naturally going to beat out a few throws, but it seems unsustainably high. He’s probably more of a .290 hitter. However, his value is still pretty good because he can really play 2b. He’s not just a guy pretending to play the possition. Probably not much of a utility guy since his arm is not plus.

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  13. Alan –

    Thanks for the link. I guess I shoulda figured that baseball reference would have that.. 7-26 this year with a homer isn’t that bad, considered that he probably hasn’t been getting that much practice as a hitter. I wonder how if he will have the ability to play outfield – he may have played 1b in college to help preserve his arm. Whatever the case, it will be a very interesting experiment to follow.

    – Jeff

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  14. Spidale has been pretty consistent. Looks like a solid organizational player with potential to stick at AAA and make a few bucks, maybe the $50K plus range once he signs as a minor league free agent. After some AAA experience, he probably will not embarrass in spot duty in majors if needed, much like a Rich Thompson.

    Wish he could catch. Would see a lot more MLB time.

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  15. You nailed it! I went back to the 2007 draft file & located this…

    11.19 Justin DeFratus, RHP (Ventura JuCo, California)

    Several junior-college righthanders not under control could go in the single-digit rounds as well, led by smallish Michael Southern, Pierce’s towering Dan Berlind and Ventura’s Justin DeFratus, who had the highest Scouting Bureau number of any California juco player for much of the spring. The 6-foot-4 DeFratus tops out at 94 mph but loses velocity early in games (at times up to 7-10 mph within three innings) and was working on a long-toss program during the season to increase his durability and arm strength. At times his slider also is a plus pitch, and he shows a feel for changing speeds.

    Hey, this sounds promising. Haven’t seen him pitch, can’t speak to how he looks mechanically, but seems like he has a chance for good stuff, but he needs instruction. This pick isn’t a total loss.

    It was a good call by the Phils too it seems?

    Michael Southern – taken in the 15th rd (by Tampa Bay) was out of baseball after the 2008 season.
    Dan Berlind – 5-13 4.76 reached the Midwest league but hasn’t thrown a pitch in 2010

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  17. What is the obsession with Joe Savery? I don’t understand it. His best bet would be to go to AA next year and hit a little bit and maybe he’ll have some trade value in a multi-player deal in a year. Then we can finally get rid of this stiff. Or we could just flat out release him. A bad pick by one of the Phillies’ worst scouts, Steve Cohen.

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  18. I would like views on why some propects like Garcia go up a level and maintain there high average. The only thing I can come up with is that they are NOT bad ball hitters and do not depend lesser quality pitchers.

    Any ideas or views????????????????????

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  19. was at the reading/ richmond game last night and sat next to j c ramirez who was charting the game. he’s starting tonight. nice kid, very polite and respectful. didn’t recognize the other player who was working the radar gun.

    impressed by h.garcia. he can hit from both sides. also is sound in the field and runs well. from what i saw i felt his arm was pretty good. made a strong flat-footed throw on a double play try. understand the phils will work him in the outfield and at third this winter to expand his possibilities and clarify what they have in him. definitely will get to the bigs and i think an everyday player.

    also liked what i saw of de fratus. could be a back end of the pen guy for the big club next year, although i think some time in allentown would be good.

    flande wasn’t very impressive. fringy stuff. his line of 5 innings, 8 hits, 3 runs was just about a perfect reflection of what he showed.

    the team isn’t exactly loaded with hot prospects but they play hard and are fun to watch.

    the lights went out again during the game. i only go to 4-5 games per year, what are the odds of having that happening to you twice in one season.

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  20. freddy’s numbers still don’t look that great, but it seems as if he has been picking up more hits lately. then looking at his triple slash (full season at AA) vs last season (mostly at CLR), they’re all up, albeit marginally — do you all think he’s taken a step in the right direction? or is he still a no-hit, great glove prospect?

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  21. Until Galvis can hit consistantly in the upper .270s in AA ball he’s still a no-hit, great glove guy IMO. Since he has no power he’s going to have to hit for at least a decent average .260 range) in the majors to justify staying on the field as a regular.

    The days of teams carrying a defensive-only player in their lineup are over, especially in the NL.

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  22. Nowheels, I think the easiest theory would be that players improve as they develop. Garcia is becoming a better hitter with each year and that is reflected in his continued production against more difficult competition.

    I’m wary on Garcia as an overwhelming prospect though. He’s slight, really not much bigger than Freddy Galvis. He doesn’t walk, and his defensive abilities are limited to second base. If he can’t maintain a .300+ average, then he really doesn’t have secondary skills to fall back on.

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  23. I’ve always been high on Galvis because of his defense but he has yet to reach his potential. He has yet to demostrate great baserunning skills and he has yet to hit for average. Elvis Andrus went from a 17 year old minor leaguer hitting .256 to a top ten major league shortstop pretty quickly by being a great base runner. His average hasn’t been earth shattering at the ML level but he steals bases and plays defense. Freddy has to improve in one of those areas to make it as a regular, I would agree. His average doesn’t have to be great but it would be nice if he could make something happen once he got on base.

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  24. To be fair, Galvis has made steps towards becoming a better baserunner. He has a career high in steals already, and his SB:CS ratio is much better than in seasons past.

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  25. I really expect Garcia to be a backup INF in the majors. But his inability to play SS will severely limit his ability to stick. He appears to be a good switch hitter with good speed which makes him a tremendous bench player as a pinch hitter and runner.
    At least if he can play an average 3B/OF that might allow a Galvis type (no-hit SS) to be the other INF. Then fill the other two spots with good hitters (Gload & Sweeney types).

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  26. You guys still gotta realize Galvis is only 20 and in AA. He still has time to improve his hitting, only reason he’s even up in AA is because of his glove.

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  27. I certainly haven’t given up on Galvis mainly because he is still so young. Simply making the point that he will need to get much better offensively before he can be considered as an every-day player. Good news is that he has the best OPS of his minor league career this season at AA. Bad news is that that OPS is .589…

    He needs another 100 points before his offense becomes barely good enough to support his exceptional glovework.

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  28. True, Brian but he hasn’t really given us a reason to think that his bat is going to get better… he’s only 20, true but how many prospects go from hitting .230-.240 across A, A+ and AA to hitting .275+ in the majors?

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  29. If Galvis turns into a valdez i will be happy, good glove, multiple postion, and slings in a clutch hit now and then

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  32. Galvis comp Bowa is the same thing only different. If anything Galvis is ahead of
    Bowa. Does he have Bowa’s heart is the question.

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  33. I’m not sure how people can be criticized for saying Galvis will never hit because didn’t one of the Phillies own scouting people say that recently? Wolever, Lamar, or someone? That Galvis will probably never hit much in the bigs.

    Which is why it’s so important that he gets better at taking walks. Honestly he should probably be trained Willie Mays Hayes (Major League movie) style and anytime he doesn’t hit the ball on the ground force him to do push-ups. He’s got speed to beat out ground balls, he doesn’t have the power to drive the ball. If he can turn into a .250-.260 hitter who gets 60-70 walks a year and steals you 30-35 bases he’s your starting SS for the post-Rollins years because he’ll also give you gold-glove caliber defense at that position.

    If he remains a .230 hitter who strikes out more than he walks then he’s not someone a NL team can get away with as their starting SS over an entire season. Maybe he could play in the AL and be the 9-hole hitter. But you can’t give away two outs every game with a .220/.230 hitter in the 8-hole and a pitcher in the 9-hole in the NL.

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  34. On Utley and Garcia… Did anybody hear about The Phils moving Utley to another position to reduce the wear and tear on his body? That would then open up a spot for Garcia.

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  35. I don’t think anyone from the Phillies has talked about Utley moving positions there was an article in the paper a few days ago speculating that they should. Where exactly would Utley move to? 1B & 3B are both filled by guys under contract for an extremely long time(Ryan Howard) and thru 2012(Polanco at third) and I’m not sure Utley at third would work very well, but then I had trepidations of Polanco at third and he’s more than held his own.

    So then you look at the outfield. I guess LF is really the only realistic spot for him if we’re talking about for the 2011 or 2012 season. Domonic Brown will take over RF with Werth leaving after this season. Ibanez is signed through next season for LF, maybe if he finished strong the Phils could trade him in the off-season by taking some salary if they really wanted to make a spot for Utley in 2010, otherwise it would be 2011.

    Then Salary starts to be a concern, a supposedly ‘declining’ Utley who’s playing the OF isn’t worth the salary of a 2B Utley. I also think Utley’s the kind of guy who wants to stay at 2B. I think he’d find it something of an insult to be moved to the OF to ‘protect’ him.

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  36. If Utley were to go to the OF it would ruin any chance of going to the HOF if he plays til 38 and maintains the kind of numbers he has at 2B he will have a strong case for a plaque, if moved to the OF kiss it goodbye. Something to that effect was in an articl I read somewhere, I’d have to think Utley would be aware of what moving positions could do to his possibe legacy and be against it.

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  38. Alan,
    Have you seen Garcia in person, he is not “slight”, when I saw him my first “body” comparison was a young Ron Gant. If you’re not old enough to remember Gant , believe me he was a “rock”.

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  40. if you have ever seen utley play its obvious that he’s willing to do whatever to help the team so while he might not welcome a move to the outfield he would do it without making a big deal about it. with that said i dont think the organization would consider it just to make room for garcia. anyways its not his defensive position that would wear him down over the course of a year. im not saying that 2nd base is easy to play but theres a lot less strain on the body playing at that position

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  41. Ace Chutley: That’s very interesting. What could be the reason for pairing those two stats to contrast as opposed to some other ones. I don’t see them as having the same relationship K:BB has, but it’s still a very informative and descriptive stat in terms of player qualities and tendencies.

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  42. The weather still sucks. Games from FL to Williamsport were rained out. Wmsprt has back-toback twinbills coming up.

    Of note is Jeremy Barnes, who is absolutely on fire. He’s had 4 multi-hit games in a row and is hitting .452 in his last 10 games. 8 of his 14 hits, over that stretch, have been for extra bases. He sits at .299 on the year. He’s 23 and playing in A ball but I see him doing the same at CLW next year. AA will be his true test.

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  43. As dry as it’s been this rain is wonderful. What sucks is major league umpiring and Philadelphia’s offense.

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