August 13th Discussion

Daily Discussion

Sorry for the late post. Im desperately short on time. If someone wants to add the box score links, that would be great. Other than that, discuss away.

56 thoughts on “August 13th Discussion”

  1. Congratulations to Tim Kennelly who will get his 600th FSL at bat tonight. In two seasons at A+ Tim is hitting just under .300 and has hit .378 during July and August while starting at four different positions. My favorite Kennelly moment was watching him line a home run over the .370 sign in left when he was catching a Drabek gem at Reading last year and seeing family celebrate.

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  2. If you’re looking for a good start to the day, look at Brody Colvin’s June/July/August. I promise you won’t be disappointed.

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  3. on colvin.. he may be near his inning mark for the season.. why not bring him up to clearwater otherwise? Does he start at Clearwater or Reading next year.. I guess there is no need to rush him.. but then again, he is completely dominant at Lakewood.. I am a runner and people say when running a lot of miles, you can run “empty miles” by running without a specific task.. Is there such a thing as empty innings.. meaning he isnt getting challenged anymore so he is in a sense not profiting as much as he could by facing more appropriate competition ?

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  4. I think Colvin and Cosart will start in the FSL next year but if they continue to dominate theyll end up in Reading quickly.

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  5. Surprised no one mentioned Hyatt’s AA debut. Too many walks but kept the hits and runs to a minimum and continued to pile up the K’s. Would’ve gotten the win but Escalona gave up 2 in the 9th. He is definitely on the rise.

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  7. Also agree on Hyatt … think I heard he will only get 4 starts. If he’d had solid success over maybe a half season at AA, he wouldn’t definitely been a top 10 prospect for me. Not sure he can get that high, though we’ll have to see how he does.

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  8. Domonic Brown has struggled with the Philliesin terms of low BA, OPS, few walks and too many strike outs, but he has done the job they needed from him. Remember, he came up when Howard went on the DL. Howard is the RBI guy on the Phillies, and Domonic has 11 RBI in 12 games (39 AB). If we leave out the games that he had only 1 AB (pinch hitting mostly, I guess) he has 11 RBI in 9 games. He has done a great job of getting home runs that the Phillies often leave out there and has to get some of the credit for their amazing record since Howard went down.

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  9. I wish Manuel would leave him in all game, and/or have played him every day. I don’t think that helps a young player, being pulled for a pinch hitter, or not getting the start.

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  10. Dr. Steve, I agree with you about Brown’s development, but Manuel is in a pennant race and hiss highest priority is to try to win games so I can’t fault him for the moves he has made with Brown.

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  11. Brody Colvin finally makes the BA hotsheet at number 2 … was just getting ready to ask the question as to how could Colvin have the numbers he has over the past three months and never get a mention …

    Team: low Class A Lakewood (South Atlantic)
    Age: 19
    Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 SO
    The Scoop: Colvin got the biggest signing bonus of any 2009 Phillies draftee, and he’s playing like it this season. He tossed five scoreless innings in each of his first two August starts, improving his overall marks to 6-7, 3.17 with 108 strikeouts in 122 innings. Walks have been something of an issue at times for Colvin, but not in his last two starts, and he’s getting his share of groundball outs. In other words, he’s marrying efficiency with his power fastball, which sits in the low 90s and which he dials up to 97 mph when needed, even as late as the seventh inning

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  12. Brody Colvin Number 2 on this weeks BA Hot sheet:

    No. 2 BRODY COLVIN, RHP
    PHILLIES
    Team: low Class A Lakewood (South Atlantic)
    Age: 19
    Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 SO
    The Scoop: Colvin got the biggest signing bonus of any 2009 Phillies draftee, and he’s playing like it this season. He tossed five scoreless innings in each of his first two August starts, improving his overall marks to 6-7, 3.17 with 108 strikeouts in 122 innings. Walks have been something of an issue at times for Colvin, but not in his last two starts, and he’s getting his share of groundball outs. In other words, he’s marrying efficiency with his power fastball, which sits in the low 90s and which he dials up to 97 mph when needed, even as late as the seventh inning.

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  13. GCL Phillies put up 12 in the top of the first, which is good. Tyson Gillies was replaced after the 2nd inning, maybe not so good.

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  14. Strange game in the GCL. Dugan is 2 for 3, raising his average to .609. Who knew that he could hit like this? Gillies had 2 for 2 before leaving.

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  16. Hi guys,
    I’ve never posted comments before, but was just wondering if anyone had a scouting report on Austin Hyatt? His numbers have been pretty impressive even with his age, yet I wonder what his ceiling is.

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  17. I wonder if the Phillies would challenge Dugan and send him to Lakewood for playoff run rather than interrupting W Port situation. You’re noticed when you’re a 2nd round pick. Hopefully, Gillies wasn’t removed due to another injury.

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  18. That the Phillies were able to acquire Oswalt without surrendering May, Cosart or Colvin, no less Brown or any of the near-ready relievers at AA and AAA, still leaves me stunned. Here’s hoping Ed Wade hooks on with another major league team after he gets fired next year. When you’re Ed’s trading partner, every day is like Christmas.

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  19. When your unloading players like Wade did you hardly ever get equal value in return.
    Trades sometimes have to be looked at a couple years later, to fully evaluate. Like the Lidge trade, he did get a starting centerfielder fielder and All Start in Bourn. If Happ pitches well and Gose developes, it may be a different story. Plus they also got Villar. So we’ll be able to tell better in a couple years I would think.

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  20. Catch, kudos to RAJ on the Oswalt deal. Wade did get Wallace, a top 50 prospect by flipping Gose. A cheap #4 starter and a cheap young 1b in Wallace isn’t terrible. Villars is pretty good to. It allowed Wade to dump berkman as well. Great deal for Phils.

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  21. I feel like the Astros are the Phillies’ JV team. I mean look at how many washed up former phillies there are.

    Nelson Figueroa
    Brett Myers
    Geoff Geary
    Pedro Feliz
    Jason Michaels
    J.A. Happ
    Michael Bourn

    Every guy there has his problems. Ed Wade is a Phillie wannabe.

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  24. “Here’s hoping Ed Wade hooks on with another major league team after he gets fired next year. When you’re Ed’s trading partner, every day is like Christmas”

    If only they could of subbed Blanton for Happ threw in a prospect and told Ed to keep the money. The effect on the payroll would of been about the same and Ed might of looked better. And, and I would still have my man here. I loved watching Happ sneak those high strikes past hitters. Oh well. Thank you anyway Santa Ed.

    Oswalt needs to break the NL east thing to really seal the deal.

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  25. The lidge deal brought the phils a championship but I don’t think any GM in MLB would trade bourn for lidge now. That turned out pretty good for Houston.

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  26. ‘Domonic Brown has struggled with the Philliesin terms of low BA, OPS, few walks and too many strike outs, but he has done the job they needed from him. Remember, he came up when Howard went on the DL. Howard is the RBI guy on the Phillies, and Domonic has 11 RBI in 12 games (39 AB). If we leave out the games that he had only 1 AB (pinch hitting mostly, I guess) he has 11 RBI in 9 games. He has done a great job of getting home runs that the Phillies often leave out there and has to get some of the credit for their amazing record since Howard went down.’

    Brown has less than 50 ABs in the majors. And RBI are mostly meaningless. So I think this post is pretty awful.

    personally I think brown should have been sent down until 8/31. Call him up so he’s eligible for the playoffs, but let him get regular ABs at LHV. I don’t think bastardo is well suited for the LOOGY role since his main pitch is a low 90s fastball, but romero has been so bad I think the phils having the extra LH in the pen is more valuable with victorino back.

    they really need to find a LH reliever somewhere. unfortunately there are no internal solutions. I think the phils pen prevents them from reaching the playoffs this year. The pen has been a complete disaster all year. Even if they do make the playoffs, it will be tough to win without a capable LH reliever. Not good times

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  28. I think keeping him on the major league team has little impact on Brown’s development. A missed opportunity of two or three weeks of full-time play at AAA is insignificant.

    I think the decision should be based on the value of Brown’s contribution to the team right now vs. the value of deferring his free agency one year.

    If the Phils think that keeping Brown with the big team helps during their playoff run, they should keep him. If they don’t think he helps, they should send him down and keep him down long enough at the start of next season so that Brown does not become a free agent until after the 2017 season.

    Brown’s performance with the Phillies has been OK, not good, not terrible.

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  29. Holy Greg Dobbs who has two more RBIs then Brown in 100 ABs. There are guys in the league years who still turn to jello with men on base,

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  30. BTW Brown is second (9) in the month to Ruiz’s 10 RBIs in 13 less ABs. Yeah let send him down. cough

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  32. Sample size on Brown is too low to draw any negative conclusions. Bu tat the same time, praising him for his RBIs is even more ignorant than criticizing him for his overall performance.

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  33. Considering that the object of baseball is to score more runs than your opponent, berating RBI’s as a statistic is a bit silly. I suggest that some of the advanced analysis that is so prevalent in baseball now is over complicating things. If Brown is driving in runs because men are on base for him, this can’t be bad.
    BTW, I was at Lakewood last night, and May had a very solid outing. Two of the three hits he gave up were little flairs over the infield. Ten strikeouts, two walks, seven innings.

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  34. GMcD,

    …. of course it’s fine for the TEAM that men are on base for him, but Brown has no effect on the number of runners on base for him. He shouldn’t get credit for it. The Phillies won’t have less base runners if they send Brown down. If he wasn’t hitting, some one else would have those opportunities, and most likely would be driving in as many runs or even more.

    RBIs are partly a function of underlying hitting performance – basically, total bases (and of course SLG% is the rate stat). But you can measure that directly. A player OBVIOUSLY shouldn’t get credit for hitting with a lot of men on base. And RBIs are a product of those two factors. Why rely upon something which is a product of performance AND luck, when you could simply measure the performance (total bases/Slg%) directly?

    Now, at this stage of the argument the ONLY argument left for the RBI fans is “clutch.” I won’t wade too deeply into that morass, except to say (1) that even if there is such a thing as clutch ABILITY as opposed to clutch PERFORMANCE, it’s rare that clutch performance is so good as to significantly effect RBI totals, and (2) in this particular case, Brown’s clutch stats aren’t particularly impressive. He is hitting about as well with men on base and men is scoring position as he is hitting overall. Delve a little deeper, and his numbers in high leverage situations are actually quite bad.

    But really what is absurd is that the pro- RBI crowd doesn’t just take RBIs into account, they make them a HUGE factor in player evaluation. As I said, I don’t put much stock in using Brown’s stats to date to predict future performance, because of small sample size. But simply looking backwards, he hasn’t performed at all well. It’s one thing to say that such bad performance is somewhat mitigated by the RBIs – it’s wrong, but at least wrong in a kind of understandable way. But some guys here seem to just want to throw out the lousy BA, SLG%, OB%, everything else, look at the RBIs, and say he has been just fine. That’s not just absurd, that absurd squared. Or maybe even absurd cubed.

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  35. Per May’s recent improvements, is there that big of a difference in competition between lakewood and clearwater?

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  36. Got a chance to watch Lakewood destroy the Delmarva Shorebirds last night. Of course, one game is not a representative sample size, but let’s just say I’m pretty excited about all these guys who have up to this time existed solely as discussion points on this blog for me. Trevor May pitched a very good game, three hits and 10 strikeouts over 7 IP–that’ll play. He definitely was a bit wild, as advertised, with at least three or four balls going way high and all the way to the backstop, Nuke Laloosh style. He also got some totally awkward, falling-down swings from the Orioles farmhands, so I guess he was effectively wild, as they say, at least for this level. His velocity was sitting around 92-94 throughout, at least according to the stadium gun, and it seemed like he was mixing it in with a 84 mph change. I have to admit I have a lot of trouble identifying breaking pitches from behind the plate, I’m not a scout, so you shouldn’t rely on my critique of his repertoire though. Speaking of scouts, there were quite a few in the audience, including Charlie Kerfeld.

    May only looked really troubled once, when he got a little wild and loaded the bases with one out. The pitching coach came out, said something, and second pitch after that May got a double play grounder to get out of the inning. All in all, very impressive.

    Even more impressive was the Blueclaws’ offensive performance. I don’t know how much I can add to what’s already been written about some of these guys, except to say you really need to see Jiwan James go first to home on a not-especially-hard-hit double (as he did in the second) to appreciate how freakin’ fast the guys is. He also started a rally in the 5th with a perfectly placed bunt single up the line. Leandro Castro, as previously reported here, is a little guy, kind of not what you think of as an outfielder, build-wise. But he went 3-5 with 3 RBIs, so he is doing something right. Singleton was exactly as advertised. He had one big hit, a double to straightaway center that the outfielder almost made a fantastic diving Edmonds-style catch on, and which might well have ended up as an inside-the-park homer if Parent hadn’t held the surprisingly fast Singleton at third. (He scored anyway on a homer by LF Stephen Batts, who had a very nice game.) Anyway, Singleton went 2-4, but even his outs were for the most part hit hard. I see no reason not to join the excitement about the guy. My father and I, who was at the game with me, spent a fair amount of time speculating about one of this site’s favorite hypothetical subjects, whether he looked athletic enough to move to LF, and we came to the conclusion that, frankly, he looks like a 1B. Has a pretty stocky build, which you could see filling out as he gets older. Then again, that never hurt Ruth, so I guess we’ll see…

    As for the rest of the Blueclaws of interest, Valle had a pretty quiet game. Hard to assess his defense based on one game. There were a few May wild pitches, as I mentioned before, but they didn’t look to me, at least as an amateur observer, like anything Valle could have or should have blocked. When May missed, he was missing by a whole lot. Like head-high. The mysterious Anth0ny Hewitt did not play. This made me sad, as I was really hoping to see some kind of feat of superhuman athleticism that has nothing to do with hitting a baseball. As for those of you interested in the Orioles prospects, I had no idea who they were, although one of them is named Bumbry, so I am guessing Al Bumbry’s DNA is still floating around the Baltimore system?

    Anyway, that’s what I saw. As I said, I’m merely a fan, not an expert, but I see a lot to be very optimistic about here. Oh, and the Blueclaws scored runs in bunches, putting together five-run innings in the 2nd and 5th. Final score: 10-o.

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  37. Kelly Dugan I think is proving he can hit at the GCL level…he is 3 for 3 so far in today’s morning game…batting a cool .654..maybe he gets a shot at Lakewood for the end of season/post season.

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  39. In response to Drew, May had no problem with the competition in Clearwater. Allowing 53 hits in 70 innings while striking out 90 isnt getting overmatched by hitters. His control was atrocious, and in coming to lakewood i read that his main focus was to get the ball down and get ahead of hitters, and it seems like hes making strides in that direction. His ERA skyrocketed in Clearwater because of the free passes, and if he walks say 30 instead of 60, you see that era way down.

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  40. DUGAN: WOW!

    3 FOR 3 TODAY; HITTING OVER .650!

    Small sample size…yes. But we can recall the start Singleton had at Lakewood. A similar start by Dugan, but with less power, so far.

    Intriguing insofar that Dugan is a center fielder and a switch hitter. His physical dimensions indicate power can be found in him…in a season or two.

    Another–so far–high grade for the scouting department.

    Though he will have played only a relatively few games before the GCL season ends, he could be sent up to Lakewood for a few games before their season ends later.

    If that is done, it could gain him a start at Lakewood in ’11…and should he respond with strong numbers, get him up to Clwtr FSL in ’11. It’s hard not to be excited about their draft picks in the last several years.

    Advantage: Ruben A. and Wolever and his team of draft picks.
    He is to be 20 in ’11.

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  41. Generally agree with you about the shortcomings of using RBI to evaluate a player, LarryM. But you’re failing to take into account the fact that four of Brown’s 11 RBI have come in at bats that are not even reflected in his total bases or slugging percentage (at least not positively). He has three sac flies and one RBI ground out. Obviously, it’s a very small sample size, but Brown has cashed in more than 25 percent of his RBI opportunities. The league average is around 15 percent. I’m not sure we can say that his productivity is entirely a function of opportunity.

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  43. I am looking at garcia. he is a improve hitter, doesnt seem to make a lot of errors, what do you do with him he will be 24 with no room on the big club for him,

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  44. For Garcia, there is always room for a backup fielder who is decent with the glove and can hit a little.

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  45. Garcia would be utility inf’r; they’ve even tried him at 3rd base in a game or two while he keeps up the heat at Reading. The implication from that is that they DO regard him as likely to be useful as such…but if he does go to the AFL in Oct, that would allow a further evaluation to happen.

    What a pleasure it would be for the big club to have somebody on the bench available to fill in at 2nd or 3rd…….AND who can hit the ball. Also, he appears to have good speed on the bases and could steal a few bases. Watching him in the AFL or some other winter lg could set him up to make the team sometime in ’11.

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  47. Cat Stoker,

    The problem with that is (1) sample size, combined with (2) the fact that significant variances in terms of ability to convert RBI opportunities general is not sustainable, along with (3) the fact that “converting” an opportunity by hitting a sac fly or ground out RBI is at best a marginally positive offensive act (and depending upon the game situation, more likely slightly negative).

    That is, he increases a little the chance to score one run (from a little less than 100%, as the chance of scoring a runner from 3rd with zero or one outs is already high, to 100%), at the cost of decreasing the chance of scoring multiple runs.

    All THAT said, looking backward, it is true that a “productive” out is a little more valuable than a “nonproductive” out (or has less negative value). But he doesn’t get charged with ABs for the Sac flies (though he does get a PA), so I’m not sure that we can even say that those 4 “extra” RBIs effect his value much at all.

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  48. I’m not saying that it’s impossible that Kelly Dugan ends up in Clearwater in 2011 (although I think it’s pretty unlikely), but a very hot week or so in rookie ball is not enough evidence to show me this is a possibility or even that Dugan well end up being a good player.

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  49. This is getting OT, so I’ll keep it short. I looked at run expectancies for various base/out states, and for most (8 of 10) states where there is a man on third and less than 2 outs, a sac fly actually decreases (slightly) expected runs scored. That’s even assuming that all base runners advance a base.

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  50. I was in Binghamton for the game tonight. Great game offensively for Overbeck, but at times he looked equally shaky on defense. The entire Reading defense looked pretty poor quite honestly. Naylor got victimized on back to back hits in the third inning that both really should have been caught.

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  51. Nice to see Utley rehabbing, 1-3 with a triple at Clearwater.

    And speaking of rehabbing I didn’t see Gillies in any box score, I hope he didn’t aggravate any injury the other night when he only played a few innings.

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  52. RBI will always be an important baseball statistic and getting runs home has been a problem for the Phillies all season. It seems to me that Howard’s big contract is based primarily on RBI, so the people that actually get paid to make the decisions understand the importance of RBI. As far as Brown is concerned, I was simply pointing out that despite his struggles he has driven home runs, something the Phillies need in the absence of Howard. There is, of course, a psychological element to this; look at Werth’s struggles to get runs home recently.

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  53. Here’s an issue though. Ryan Howard averages 140 RBIs per 162 games. That’s very good in any context. Domonic Brown in his small sample is on a 137 RBI pace. Howard however because of his strong OBP and slugging SCORES an average of 103 runs. Brown is on pace for 62. If you give practically any competent batter 27 runners in scoring position in 44 plate appearances, they are going to give you RBIs. Brown is collecting RBIs but because of his low OBP, he is producing less runs for the Phillies currently than an average hitter would at that spot. There are less opportunities for the batters behind Brown.

    Understand this is not saying Brown is a bad player. Just putting context on his MLB production.

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  54. Alan,

    While I think you’re right in your conclusion, at least based upon production to date, your post unintentionally points out many of the problems of putting much (if any) weight on RBIs and (especially) runs. The underlying skills that MATTER are advancing runners on base (and yourself) and getting on base. The former is mostly captured by SLG%; the latter is perfectly captured by OBP.

    And, of course, in this case, once again: sample size. I suspect that over the course of a season, once Brown completes his adjustment to the league, his OBP (and, depending upon where he is in the batting order, runs scored) will be higher than Howard’s.

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  55. That second baseman for Clearwater last night looked like a future Hall of Famer…

    Any scouting reports on that kid?

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  56. Catch22: Dugan has already lost 1 1/2 yrs to DL or “not ready.” Just a few pro games before his present playing for GCL club. Now 20, he should move up as far as his capabilities deserve. 20 is a little behind to be at the GCL; low A Lakewood is age-approriate for a 20 yr old.

    His unbelievablly hot start at the GCL, for me, calls for a continuation of his playing pro ball beyond the GCL’s season–so he could both 1-gain more pro ball play time for this season, and 2-promote his ’11 move up in the system. Whether he plays well enough to move up to Clwtr FSL can be determined then.

    A guy with such promise–yes, it’s a small sample size–deserves to have a challenge worthy of his anticipated skills. Plus, it MIGHT assist him in moving up the ladder more rapidly while gathering a professional’s abilities on the way.

    It appears there’d be little risk in going as I suggest. “Nothing ventured nothing gained”–a bromide with only SOME validity in some circumstances…but it does come to mind.

    Onward and upward! Excelsior!

    Depending on how he does at Lakewood

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