Howard to DL, Mayberry Called Up

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The ever evolving Phillies injury situation took another turn for the worse today with Ryan Howard being placed on the 15 day DL with his sprained ankle.  To take his place on the Phillies roster, the Phils called up OF John Mayberry, 26,  from AAA Lehigh Valley.  Mayberry, a right-handed bat,  has been up and down this year for Lehigh Valley. In his 383 AB’s, he is hitting .258/.321/.410 with 12 HR 54 RBI and 13 SB.  He has hit lefties at a .319 clip, while hitting only .240 vs. rhp. He has a 7% bb rate, while striking out at a 21% rate. With the lefty heavy Phils lineup, Mayberry may see a start or two in the OF, while first base looks to be a platoon between Ross Gload and Cody Ransom until Howard returns.

87 thoughts on “Howard to DL, Mayberry Called Up”

  1. I am happy to see Mayberry get another chance. I hold some hope that he can flash some power and make progress from lefties specialist to an everyday type like Werth did. However, Werth was a much better prospect.
    Though Mayberry has played 1B in the minors, I’d prefer to see Ibanez at 1B and Mayberry, Francisco, Werth in the OF. I’d rather have Ransom available to pinch hit or in instead of Valdez.

    Though Rizzotti should have been considered I think keeping him at AA hopefully continues his success. Maybe some team over the winter believes him to be a top prospect and Phils could trade high. If not, then Rizz gets added to 40-man and tries to rake at AAA next season.

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  2. I’d have much preferred Rizzotti — he has a far better bat than Mayberry or Ransom and he is the hot hand. He’s on 40-man this winter anyway and at his age I don’t worry about starting the option clock a year early.

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  3. Was hoping Rizz would be the one to be called up considering the way his bat has been going this year. However, I still believe he’ll be called up when they expand in september as a bat, and hopefully keep that stick hot and help the Phils…

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  4. Looks like this may be the move to send waves all the way down the line. Looks like only 2 OF in LVIP for now in Aguila and newly recalled Rich Thompson. Only a Middle Infield and Catcher on LVIP bench, so they may have to dip to Reading. I see IF with a reserve and 2 Catchers at LVIP , so they could keep on with Suomi in LF and end the thing with either 1) Timo Perez, Mike Spidale, or nominal 1B types Kevin Mahar or Tagg Bozied, or for the clamor to move Mike Rizzotti to LF and/or call him up theres the chance. But , if they wind up short an OF in Reading, I see 3 who could move up and that;s all they got at Clearwater in Susdorf, D. Myers, and D. Mitchell or maybe Kennelly to Reading, and if they had to move any of the Lakewood guys to Clearwater it would be a gamble. So what happens?

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  5. Much like Happ, this organization just doesn’t want to see Rizzotti succeed. I have a feeling he’ll never get a fair shake here, just like Happ.

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  6. If they’re gonna even consider moving Rizzotti to the OF, it aint gonna happen till the off-season. Don’t think they had a choice but to call Mayberry up as Tracy is still hurting I believe and there is really no one else warrenting a promotion (sorry to burst some peeps bubbles on that one).

    Spidale will probably fill in at LV as he has done in the past.

    I am still quite surprised though that Rizzotti hasn’t been at least given a chance at AAA yet, especially on a horrible team like the Pigs.

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  7. John Mayberry played 4 games at first base in the Rangers organization in 2008. For him to be used at first base in the majors the typhoid flu would have to hit the club. He will be used as a right handed bat off the bench with maybe an occasional start against a lefty

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  8. I would like to see Spidale to LV and Susdorf to Reading with a stop gap plug in for Clearwater.

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  9. Why would the Phillies call up any 1B when he’s not going to play? Gload and Ransom will get the starts. Calling up Rizzotti wouldn’t do any good.

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  11. Disagree Obligatory. They can leave Gload as his bench role where he’s comfortable. No disrespect towards Ransom, but he’s just not a MLB player on a playoff caliber team.

    I guess I don’t get what you lose by calling up Rizz. I don’t think they’re too concerned about his service time/clock. Jumping from AA to MLB isn’t too much bigger (if any) than AAA to MLB. He’s not THAT young. I just don’t get it.

    I guess there might be something to having too many LH bats in the lineup. But I think I could overlook that from the Rizzotti / Ransom upgrade.

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  12. It is frustrating that we lose Howard and there is even a consideration that Cody Ransom will replace him in the lineup. I KNOW Ransom is going to be a complete waste at the plate, but perhaps Rizzotti could do something. The Phils will be in desperate need of scoring punch considering the lineup they will be putting out there. I am not saying Rizzotti will succeed, but I do believe there is a greater chance that he will that Cody Ransom will. HMM, as I am writing this Cody Ransom just popped out to SS with Fransisco on third and Ruiz on second with one out. Ransom is worthless….

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  13. Ruben has to wake up and clear this roster of deadwood. Charlie loves veteran deadwood. For example Dobbs just to name one.

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  14. Matt
    I often wonder why others can’t see that Happ was being screwed here. He doesn’t have oooh aaaah stuff. He just wins. He also lost games due to poor relief.

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  15. Let me preface this by saying that I love this site. And I really appreciate most of everyone’s opinion. But why is it that since Ransom wasn’t a Phillies’ prospect from the outset he gets no chance? Rizzotti has never let me repeat that NEVER had an at bat above AA. Sure he’s having a good season, and might even be able to succeed at AAA. But this team is trying to make the playoffs. They need someone to fill in for about 2 weeks. Their only choice is to patch the big club together. All the players on the team are BIG LEAGUE PLAYERS and calling up Mayberry who has been to the party before continues that. This isn’t the Royals searching for talent. So please, cheer for Ransom. Give him a chance to help…the same chance you would give Rizzotti if he hit a buck fifty for two weeks while waiting for the big man to get back.

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  16. “Much like Happ, this organization just doesn’t want to see Rizzotti succeed. I have a feeling he’ll never get a fair shake here, just like Happ.”

    Why would any team not want all of its players to succeed? Well, I guess it was the plot of the first Major League movie, but confused as to how / why it applies here.

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  18. Ransom is the type of player who can help you if used in the right role.

    In any case this is a sensible move. Mayberry provides a RH bat and unlike Rizzotti/Tracy, he can play all three outfield positions. Besides, at this stage it’s sink or swim for Mayberry and it’s time to figure out if he can ever contribute in the bigs.

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  20. Alan – your love for AAA veterans is commendable (just messing with you!). For the record, I’m ok with Mayberry being here, but Ransom needs to go.

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  21. Matt, you’re absolutely right. He’s not an All-star. In fact he might barely be a serviceable part-time player. But what those stats really tell me…he’s played before. With what they need..15 days of platoon coverage…I will take Ransom’s versatility and experienced bat (limited as it might be) over the complete unknown of a very defensively limited player who is having the hitting season of his career….at AA.

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  22. Let me be clear on something with Ransom. If he were to have a role on an ideal team it would be as the utility infielder, instead of Valdez or Juan Castro. He can play all the infield spots and otherwise he’s the George Foreman option off the bench. But you don’t want him getting more than 150 plate appearances. (I feel safe in saying that the biggest problem the Phillies’ offense has is that Valdez has batted over 230 times already for the club.)

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  23. Weird how so many fans look at JA Happ through rose-colored glasses. He got no decisions in nine of his starts last year: four times the game was tied when he left, three times the team was behind when he left and twice the team was ahead. That means the bullpen cost him two wins and the offense spared him three losses. Not sure what you mean, nowheels, when you say that he “lost games due to poor relief.”

    I don’t think the question was ever Ransom or Rizz. Even if they DFA Ransom, they’re not going to call a lefty up to play first. They already have Gload. I think Rizz would have gotten some consideration if he were right-handed, but they’re not going to play Rizz over Gload. Gload has been very productive of late (a 1.200 OPS over the past month) & even tho he might be “comfortable in his bench role,” his OPS is 350 points higher as a starter.

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  24. Fortunately for Happ he’ll now get the chance to show just how much the Phillies were holding him back!!!

    As for Rizzotti, he needed to be right-handed. Ross Gload is already available as a left-hander who can play 1st.

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  25. Gload will get the ABs and should. He has been plugging away at the MLB level. It would be a slap not to give him ABs against righties. Let Ransom hit against lefties. No reason to bring up Rizz now. His time is September, when he can come off the bench. Gload is likely more experienced and probably better at 1B too. That’s not insignificant.

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  26. No disrespect, but the notion that the Phils did not want Happ to succeed is just silly. You can argue that they did not sufficiently appreciate him, but that’s about it. Furthermore, you can’t use this year as proof of anything. He was in the rotation and just took a long, long time to get his stuff back – he was getting lit up right up until his last few starts in AAA. I like Happ a lot, but he may be injury prone, he’s not very young (Hamels is younger) and does not have a long track record of success. He’s the type of guy who could go 15-10 one year and then spend the next two years fighting injuries and inconsistency.

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  27. Experience counts for a lot. Rizzotti has only 1 big year with the bat and has never hit above AA. You want him to come to Philly in the middle of the playoff hunt under that pressure? That type of pressure can ruin rookies.

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  28. Gload is a legit bat and he plays an excellent 1B, he’ll play against the righties until Howard gets back. Mayberry will only be around until Victorino gets back because he’ll be back before Howard but he could get a start against a lefty if they see any more in the next week.

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  29. This stuff with the Phillies not wanting Rizzotti or Happ to succeed reminds me of guys like Gene Schall, Travis Chapman, Jon Zuber and many others. I think it’s just as ludicrous now as it was back then. At some point I just feel you have to trust the people in the organization that they have their reasons.

    Same for Mathieson. It’s true. His fastball doesn’t move. Signing guys like Baez is stupid. The young guys do deserve chances, but there has to be a reason that they don’t get them sometimes. I’m not a scout or evaluator, but it’s silly to think there is an agenda against these guys.

    How many guys that were held back ended up being a valuable asset to other teams? This isn’t like David Ortiz being released by the Twins or Johan Santana ending up a rule 5 pick. I just don’t see it. I hope Rizz succeeds. He seems to be a good guy having a hell of a year. Idk.

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  30. Let’s see how things go. Who knows Rizz may get called up yet if Mayberry/Ransom/Gloaz don’t hit. I just wonder what the Phillies plans are for Rizz, keep him at AA or move him to AAA. I would think that the kid is hoping for some type of acknowledgement or promotion given his great season.

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  31. Nowheels and Matt, I have to disagree about Happ not given a chance. In 2008 who was he going to replace in the rotation? Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton, you can argue eaton and kendrick but kendrick was coming off a good rookie yr and eaton was making 8 million and everyone knows charlie likes the vets. In 2009 he started 23 games and make 12 relief appearances. So he didn’t start in the post season but how many rookie pitchers do? He hasn’t been the most durable pitcher either and he got you roy oswalt. From what I’ve seen here on the website scouts still aren’t sold on him ever repeating his stats last yr. I want to win world series so here is something someone on here posted that makes my argument. In a 7 game series Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, Halladay. So if we had kept him replace oswalt with blanton, happ, moyer, hell throw me in the mix and tell me which one you prefer. The End

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  32. So let me get this straight, according to alot of folks on this site JA Happ was born in a manger and his parents names are Joseph and Mary? did i hear that correctly? At no time did i ever think Happ was a knockout prospect. I would rather have an older ace type then a guy who in my opinion would never be a #1,2 guy unless he was on a horrible team. I think some love Happ alittle too much. and now we can add Rizz to that list of prospects overhyped.

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  33. I love the people that use of the excuse of, ” he has never had an ab over AA.” AA has better talent than AAA. AAA is mostly over the hill guys, that never made it and never will. Maybe the reason Rizz has never gotten an ab over AA is because they don’t give him a chance! How long did they leave Howard in the minors? He should have been up 2-3 years sooner. The only way Rizz gets a shot is if Howard gets hurt. Oh yea, he did get hurt!

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  35. Happ and Rizzotti should get credit for outperforming their scouting reports, just as Chase Utley has. Because of their great results the deserve the kudos they receive on this site. I think the Phils believe more in the scouting report and therefore appear to ‘undervalue’ their contributions. These type of players likely to be promoted more slowly since they have to prove themselves better than their ‘upside’.
    The story on Rizzotti is not yet completed. The reason Happ was valuable to the Astros is because it is possible he becomes Andy Pettitte. The Phils do not think so.

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  36. Rizzotti again went 3-7 tonight in the Reading doubleheader. One day he will get his chance to shine…Whether its with the Phils or not…His day will come…

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  37. I am curious how the 40-man roster shapes up for the end of this season. Generally, a catcher should be promoted for roster flexibility but none are on the 40-man currently. Ransom probably deserves to stay as a INF/RH-PH option. Promoting Rizzotti now would use the last 40-man spot. Moyer could be moved to 60-day DL if he is truly done but I would not due that unless absolutely sure since I’d rather have him than Carpenter or Worley if another starter is needed.

    Phils already lost Berry and I would imagine any of the young pitchers removed from 40-man would be lost as well. Baez and Herndon are staying. The only player I would not mind losing is Escalona but a controllable lefty reliever with Majors experience is going to be picked up by someone.
    Since the Phils already brought up Brown as a lefty hitter I doubt Rizzotti gets the call. I still would like to see a pinch runner type added to 40-man for playoffs but Berry was claimed and Tavares was cut.

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  38. I realize the people who love Happ are, pretty much by definition, the same people who are skeptical of fielding independant pitching statistics anyway, so the following likely won’t convince. But since the topic has been broached again, it’s worth reminding people that:

    (1) While some pitchers are able to sustain ERAs lower than their defense indepenant ERA over a career , (a) MOST pitchers who do so in a small sample size WON’T sustain it, and (b) The MASSIVE extent to which Happ has exceeded his fielding independant ERA is NOT sustainable (3.03 ERA versus 4.47 FIP and 4.66 xFIP). No modern pitcher has been able to sustain anywhere near that differential. Interestingly, everyone’s favorite whipping boy, Blanton, is comparable to Happ in terms of his career HR/BB/K rates, and his FIP, but is actually a little better than Happ.
    (2) Happ is a little below league average in K%, BB%, AND HR%.
    (3) The pitchers who DO sustain better ERAs than predicted by their K/BB/HR percentages tend to be ground ball pitchers. Happ is not a ground ball pitcher.

    It’s not JUST the scouting which leads people to beleive that Happ is a likely 3/4/5 starter, not a 1 or 2. It’s scouting, plus minor league performance, plus his defense independant statistics. The best case for him in the long run is probably an ERA a little under 4.00; somewhere between 4.00 and 4.50 is more likely.

    It’s funny, and not just Happ: there is a group of people on this site who don’t trust either scouting reports OR more advanced statistical metrics. Which leaves them with … what? Generally unadjusted minor league stats, often in small sample sizes, or occasionally (Happ in this case) small sample sizes of major league performance (and yes, just over 200 IP is a small sample size). And 99% of the time, the scouting reports and/or the more advanced statistical metrics end up getting vindicated. But by that time the know-nothing crowd is onto the next prospect who they over value, hype to the skies, and, most annoyingly, who they use to irrationally bash the front office. I mean, come on, Micheal Taylor, who is still a legitimate prospect despite a bad year, was going to be the next Dave Winfield!! And at least in that case, there was some basis for the hype.

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  39. And as for the Pettite comparison … at Happ’s age Pettite had over 1000 IP in the Major Leagues. More to the point, while Happ and Pettite do have similar career K rates, Happ is much worse in terms of HR and BB. It’s just an absurd comparison. Of course I suppose it’s true in theory that Happ could improve dramatically in those areas. There’s just no reason at all to think he can. I mean, there are unusual career progressions – look at Ibanez. But it’s pretty much impossible to predict those in advance, and no particular reason to think Happ will be one of them.

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  40. I just don’t get what you would gain by calling Rizzotti up. He’s not going to play. Gload is clearly a better option, and obviously the choice Charlie will make. Ransom may not be very good, but he’s not left-handed. It does seem a little like rooting for someone on the big club to fail just for the sake of one of these prospects.

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  41. “Happ and Rizzotti should get credit for outperforming their scouting reports, just as Chase Utley has”.
    I don’t see the similarities. Chase Utley was a mid 1st round pick as an amateur, and an All-star as a Major Leaguer. What are the similarities between he and Rizzotti?
    Don’t always agree with LarryM, but he is correct in his assessment of Happ. He is a good pitcher, but his peripherals will catch up to him eventually and he will settle in to a role as a 3rd or 4th starter. Being a 3/4 is not an insult.
    This constant “Rizzotti should be called up” on every thread is tiresome. It’s always the same commenters. Hopefully, the Phillies promote this guy to AAA, so at least that complaint can be put to rest. Not looking forward to an offseason of every thread turning into “Rizzotti should be on the Major League team to replace Goad and or Dobbs”.
    Whatever happened to every thread turning into “Mathieson throws 99, he should be closer”?

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  42. Obligatory Phailure says:Ransom may not be very good, but he’s not left-handed.

    More like he is no-handed. How does hitting .194 against lefties give you value. True it is better than the .182 against the others?

    Sadly you are right though Charlies is a one trick pony. That is why it is up to Ruben to clear the roster.

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  43. Rizzotti- if they leave him exposed for the Rule 5 draft then the opinions of the other teams will be known. If they add him to 40 man in September and he remains protected after the season then he likely goes to AAA next season. Don’t see the controversy remaining into the next season, though some will fan the flames to keep it going, I am sure.

    Ransom- on the squad as currently constituted, who else? They need to have a couple of extra infielders and if Valdez plays SS or Polanco 2B, then they can have a RH option to spell Dobbs at 3B. If they are not the best possible players, that is what happens when 3 High Calibre regulars are injured. Dobbs and Ransom at least have the experience, can play 3B, and offer a power threat, no minor league upgrades available for that. Ransom would not, however, be any kind of replacement for Valdez , however, as Ransom is but on the emergency fill-in level as an IF, especially at SS and 2B, and if people could get around to actually watching some games with the offbase projecting out of Batting Stats only, Valdez has hit much better and has had numerous multi-hit games instrumental to actual victories in real games which I have seen, and this may differ from The Wins received from the formulaic alottment which some will hand out based on cumulative season stats from some made up formula. Valdez has more value as reserve player to the actual winning of real games than Ransom..

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  44. All good points if Ransom could play baseball and Charlie wasn’t Charlie. Some players are improving because they are getting playing time. FINALLY

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  45. 1flyFan,

    I watch plenty. That stuff means … nothing … unless it’s reflected in the relevant numbers. Simply put, even with that release, and that demeanor*, the things that a pitcher can CONTROL – BB, HR and K – are for Happ … not bad, but mediocre. The very definition of mediocre.

    I LIKE Happ, and there considerable value in even an “average” Major league starting pitcher. But it would simply be unprecedented in modern baseball for a pitcher to come anywhere near maintaining that ERA with his HR/K/BB rate. And you know what – this isn’t one of those areas where “traditional” baseball analysts and “modern” baseball analysts disagree – this is an area where modern analysis has confirmed the traditional baseball belief that guys like Happ can’t maintain that kind of ERA without the fundamentals to back it up.

    Glavine? Yeah, he’s always the guy people like you want to use as a comp. Maybe because there really aren’t any other pitchers of that supposed “type” with that level of long term success. Problems with the comparison: (1) Glavine didn’t maintain anything like that big a gap between his ERA and his FIP. Yes, he did have a lower ERA than one would expect from his HR/BB/K data – by about 1/2 a run (actually a little less), not 1 1/2 runs like Happ so far. (2) While he, like Happ, had a mediocre K%, his HR% and BB% were quite good – unlike Happ. His HR/9, for example, was 0.7 versus 1.1 for Happ. Sound like not much? That alone is more than 1/2 a run a game. (3) By Happ’s age, Glavine had about 1500 IP and over 90 Wins. There’s more I could say on that, but you get the picture.

    You’re probably one of those guys who thinks that David Eckstein is an awesomely valuable player because of his grit and determination and all of that happy horse shit.

    The sad thing is that the people who properly** use an analytical approach to baseball are proven right about 99% of the time (in terms of predicting future performance) – yet people like you continue to put their heads in the sand and ignore the evidence.

    *Release, of course, IS important when it results in quality measurable performance. Demeanor? Not so much.

    **Sure, some people misuse numbers – but that doesn’t invalidate an analytical approach.

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  46. “and now we can add Rizz to that list of prospects overhyped”.

    Overhyped – really? Batting .364 in a league where the next closest batter is hitting .314 and playing for an organization that is as blind as many of the people that write for this site including PP is not my idea of being overhyped. Overlooked would be a more apt description. When was the last Phillies prospect that was doing this well this late in the season?

    A long time ago I asked “if Rozzitti hits .400 with 13 HR would he be considered a prospect”? A lot of people responded that he was not hitting .400. In fact, at the time he was hitting about .380. I think it is now clear that even if he were hitting .400 with 20 HR many readers of this site would NOT consider him a prospect. So for all you more objective readers, give up. We will never convince these doubters no matter what Rizzotti does. Wait till he is playing against us, maybe then he will be noticed,

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  47. Please remember that this is the first year that Rizz has had the success he has had. We’ll ve all seen players get on a run and have a great year but its a one year thing that they can’t recapture the following year. If Rizz hits again next year in AAA, he’ll have much more value than he has now. The Phils obviously aren’t releasing Tracy to give Rizz playing time at AAA this year. Maybe they think the risk of him going up and not doing well hurts his trade value more than going up and doing well helps it. Remember that Rizz is not going to play in Philly anytime soon and his value may be as a trade chip in the offseason. As for Happ, does everyone realize that he’s 27 and fully developed and only 5 years younger than Oswalt? We have to continue to look at the prospects we follow as assets being developed to help the big club. The Oswalt trade (and Blanton, Lee, and Halladay trades) was an obvious case in point. The organization has doen a terrific job of drafting and developing in the last few years to make these deals happen and still have a strong system afterwards. There is too much high quality minor league pitching right now to ever be on one major league staff. I’m quite confident that sonme of that pitching will be traded in the next year or two to acquire other things we’ll need like a future SS if Galvis doesn’t cut it and a future 3B. We should just all want our assets to continue to improve and they’ll help us one way or the other.

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  48. The other thing – set aside “current” controversies for a minute – Happ, Rizzotti, etc. This supposed tendency of the Phillies to undervalue certain players … which some people assert has been going on for years. Where is this list of players that the Phillies have underestimated? Who the Phillies gave up on and have gone on to major league success?

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  49. Go Lenny go. But don’t forget we still have big butt Blanton.

    I luv people who say you don’t see what you are seeing.

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  50. ***”Remember that Rizz is not going to play in Philly anytime soon and his value may be as a trade chip in the offseason”***

    He’ll be on the Phillies roster come September 1st…

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  51. For once I agree with you Larry. Add a list of players they put undue faith in for no reason at all.

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  52. Let’s talk after his next start. I am betting it will be another quality start. And let hope you are right about Oswalt. I never saw him pitch before last start but it seems to be he is giving batters a nice look at the ball. Again I would like to be wrong.

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  53. There are a few things things that a player like Rizzotti has working against him in the prospect discussion. We’ve batted them around before, but I thought I’d rehash.

    1. Draft round / signing bonus (i.e. hype)
    – Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 46th round of the 2004 MLB June Amateur Draft and the Philadelphia Phillies in the 6th round of the 2007 MLB June Amateur Draft
    – Out of Manhattan College program he signed a bonus of 120K
    – Others can confirm, but at the time he probably wasn’t picked out as an epic talent. In fact he looks like a nice college sign with potential, as with many picks.

    2. Progression
    – Up until 2010, he was a .260-270 MILB hitter with OBP in the mid 300s; slugging in the low to mid 400s; he appears to have been striking out less each year and walking a bit more, at first glance.
    – Power inched up, but nothing outrageous
    – He only DH’ed or played in a limited way at 1B – never was really pushed to OF
    – In 2010 there are was a step change; by that I mean a significant change from the past. It has continued all season; most every stat has improved — so much so that it’s almost eye popping at this point.
    – Some Stats so far out of range, they are clearly unsustainable.
    3. Age He’s 24, which is old for a traditional prospect… but people acknowledge late bloomers exist. The Phillies tend to have older prospects… anything is possible. But it makes people wary of proclaiming him the second coming of Ryan Howard.
    4. Tools. Power (recently, yes); Arm (average?); Baserunning(low?); Plate Discipline / Hitting for Avg (yes, only recent); Fielding (apparently low). So not an all around uber stud athletic type, and from a practical perspective this may pigeon hole him.
    5. Path to majors. He’s blocked by RH, who appears to becoming slimmer, stronger, and taking care of himself with more focus each year… OF at this point does not seem to be an option for Riz, otherwise, wouldn’t the Phillies be grooming him for that? So for this club it is not obvious how he might fit, given conditions today… so he’s clearly an asset in the trade department… if other clubs believe his performance this year is real.

    Nobody wants to see Rizzotti fail… everyone wants to know if it’s for real. I think that’s why stats guys see BABIP > 400, you say, wow, that’s impressive. No one has ever really sustained that… so let’s keep our interest on the guy; and see what happens when it reverts to normal levels.

    MLB players often say baseball is journey peaks and valleys. Rizzotti is on a peak right now. He will travel back downward sooner or later. We just want to know if the next valley is higher than the last one.

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  54. You never saw Oswalt pitch before Friday? That pretty much completely validates all comments about you being a moron. Maybe you should watch a game or two before you open your mouth. Never seen Oswalt before=idiotic.

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  56. Sandberg, regarding your “Wasn’t picked out as an epic talent” comment toward Matt Rizzotti…The kid got drafted out of Queens, NY after high school where generally no scouts come to watch games. Then out of little Manhattan College in the Bronx, NY. The only reason the scouts even came there was because the kid was batting .400. Also his junior year he was offered a full scholarship to play 1B at Vanderbilt (at the time the #1 team in the country, with David Price on the mound) So regarding your “epic” status, many teams/scouts saw his potential however, the Phils were the one to draft him. Now are they going to utilize that “epic talent” or just continue to act like he doesn’t exist???

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  57. Steve Says … “How long did they leave Howard in the minors? He should have been up 2-3 years sooner.”

    What??? Howard was in the minors for 4 years of playing time. He had his break out year in 2004 (solid production before that) and was in the majors in 2005.

    how anyone can say he was handled incorrectly is beyond ridiculous. I think he’s more of a blue print. Solid years gave him an annual promotion. When he busted out, he got on in-season promotion and then onto the majors. He had a track record BEFORE being jumped in season. Not a bad way to do things.

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  58. Regarding Rizzotti, I’m not going to repeat myself, people here know where I stand, but let me frame it this way: I don’t think anyone here is denying that Rizzotti is a “prospect” – heck, he was a prospect even before this year, albeit a marginal one (i.e., he wasn’t just organizational filler). And his performance this year has obviously improved his prospect status.

    The debate is about HOW GOOD a prospect. Probably 80% of the back and forth about him on this site is pretty useless, in that it’s much too vague. I’d like to ask his boosters here just what you think his ceiling is, specifically? I get the impression that some of you think he is going to be a star at the Major League level. I just don’t think that’s likely, for reasons which have been stated. OTOH, in another thread someone responded to my evaluation (good enough to to be a regular at 1B or DH for someone for a few years, but no star potential) by saying that that’s all his boosters on the site are saying. If that’s the case, then we’re arguing over (almost) nothing.

    Of course the other issue is position – some people here are convinced that he can play the outfield if it wasn’t for that incompetent Phillies front office stubbornly refusing to try him in the OF. That argument isn’t just almost certainly wrong, but is insulting … ascribing an absurd level of incompetence to a minor league system that by any reasonable metric (i.e., quality prospects produced) is one of the best minor league systems.

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  59. I must say, Sandberg, that was very eloquently put. We all want Rizz to do well, but as the Big Club is currently contituted, that won’t happen for quite some time. Now if he starts tearing up AAA midway thru next year and some team (AL West preferrably) needs a bat and has a stud 3b prospect to swap, I’ll pay for his taxi. It’s about asset management. The Big Club has a perennial All-Star locked in at 1B for the next 5 years. Rizz is gonna have to find another way to contribute.

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  60. Agree with what Tom said about Howard; I’d add this:

    Obviously if he came up sooner, he would have been arb/FA eligible sooner. One of the reasons for the Phillies recent success is that they had a bunch of underpriced (mostly pre-FA) players in their prime. Let’s say Howard was brought up a year earlier, and assume the same salary progression. That would have meant $5 million higher salary in 2008 and $4 million more in 2009 – money that would not have been available for other players. And for what? So he could have been on the team in 2004? Thome was very good that year – Howard likely would have been a downgrade at that stage of his development – and even if not, surely wouldn’t have made a difference in terms of making the playoffs. Of course it’s possible having him for a full season in 2005 MIGHT have made a difference – but hindsight is 20-20, and no one – NO ONE – could have predicted that the Phillies HOF 1B (Thome) coming off a great 2004 season would have the worst season (by far) of his career in 2005.

    The fact is that the team’s decision not to rush Howard or Utley has been massively vindicated.

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  61. Rizz isn’t getting called up in Sept either. I think he’s having a wonderful season and saw him 5 times this yr. Twice at Trenton and 3 times at Reading. There’s just no position for him at the Majors and I feel that this streak is unsustainable. If they could get a nice prospect for him or if he could be included in a deal to move someone then great, if not, he’s not going to have much of a chance in the NL.

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  62. I just realized you guys are having the “rizz discussion here” check out my post on the Aug. 4th review.

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  63. Yeah, Oswalt has been up for 9+ years, they made the World Series in 2005. He has been in 3 all star games. I can easily see how he would slip past your radar. You are a mouth breathing tard that apparently only watches Phillies games and that plays into you having absolutely no perspective.

    It doesn’t even matter if Cy Happ becomes the pitcher that your deluded mind thinks he is. Oswalt has been there done that and not a single baseball guy in the world would prefer Happ at $500K to Oswalt at $8M. Maybe you can get off your double shift at Mickey D’s and catch a game from time to time. I’ll give you a list of other guys that you may want to check out when you are on your break from flipping burgers. Pujols, ARod, Fielder, Longoria. Those are all 4 guys that have done a little bit but are probably below your radar

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  67. I demean because you don’t even know who Oswalt is. IF you had knowledge about the game then you wouldn’t be demeaned. Of course if you had knowledge about the game you also wouldn’t think that Happ is better than Oswalt today or at any point in their lives.

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  68. nowheels,

    Setting aside the nastiness on both of your parts, the bottom line is this: looking at the WHOLE RECORD, what are the reasonable expectations going forward for Oswalt and Happ? I’m not going to dump on you for not having watched Oswalt, but since you haven’t, I’m not sure why we’re supposed to listen to your opinions on the matter. All you’ve got are the numbers, and unless you cherry pick those numbers, they support the common sense, accepted position that Oswalt is, going forward, likely to be much better than Happ. I mean, your argument is … what? Last year’s atypical poor year by Oswalt, and his last two starts? Ignoring everything else? His numbers this year, and his career numbers, are far better than Happ’s … unless you REALLY believe that Happ’s 3.03 is an accurate predictor of his future performance. Which, as argued above, it is not. Heck, even last year, the worst of Oswalt’s career, and (essentially) the whole of Happ’s career, his fundemental numbers (K/BB/HR) were better than Happ’s.

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  69. Regarding Rizzotti in the outfield, I don’t think it’s been tried simply because A) even best case, his outfield defense would be a liability and B) before this year, his bat was not enough to make up for it. Would anyone have stuck Burrell in the outfield if he couldn’t hit 30 HRs a season and walk a ton? Before this year, there was no pressing need to find a position for Rizzotti, as he was most likely to just become a AAAA player, at best.

    I’m sure that, if it’s possible, they’ll try it next year. And there’s a good chance it goes the way Howard in the outfield did.

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  70. “A) even best case, his outfield defense would be a liability”

    Which is a pretty darn good reason. While I have my doubts about the level of precision for specific players that are achieved by the latest defensive metrics for evaluating defensive play, they HAVE demonstrated that really bad defensive players can cost you a TON of runs. If, say, Rizzotti is capable of .280/.370/.490 in the Major Leagues (IMO a very optimistic projection), but costs you 30 runs per year in the field … it probably makes more sense to play him at 1B.

    “B. before this year, his bat was not enough to make up for it”

    See, this argument doesn’t make sense to me, sorry. I mean, prior to this year, his bat wasn’t good enough for 1B; all the more reason to look at an alternate position, if it were feasible. Your argument seems to assume that the Phillies saw him only as organizational filler before this year – but he wasn’t treated as org filler; he was treated as a real prospect (in terms of his development path).

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  71. nowheels is too stupid to be insulted. How a guy can spend half his day calling Phillies management dumb, while never seeing Roy ‘friggin’ Oswalt pitch, is beyond me. It explains a lot of his stupidity, though.

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  72. @FloralPark

    To your comment, I think the Phillies recognize his potential, as we all do/hope for on the site. I mean, he is in AA on the Phillies playing / developing / mashing. They’ve promoted him once this year; and in my mind it is likely they’ll promote him again to AAA. I personally think it unlikely to see him in September at CBP, but it’s not impossible. I don’t know what his future holds, and neither does anyone. One great year by this guy has made for a lot of discussion and commentary.

    Perhaps you didn’t understand my point. I wanted to describe what shapes our expectations about Rizz. One facet of that is where one is drafted. He was not a first round or supplemental pick, who are always given lofty expectations (e.g. Hewitt and Savery). He was not a busting slot prepster, who we pine for (e.g. frazer today) He was, what I would call, a college guy who signed for close to slot. In my experience, many mid round college picks turn out to be org fillers or secondary prospects that rise but never bloom. To be drafted you obviously must talented, but initial hopes weren’t future MLB regular for Rizz. That’s the point.

    In terms of Phillies using him; I guess there is a question about whether he gains anything in trade value by promotion… waiver dead line is still out there, and this year’s Matt Stairs may be in waiting. Sell high.

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  73. nowheels, how long have you been a baseball fan? Not seeing Oswalt pitch is unacceptable, he’s been a monster for Houston since 2001. He’s faced the Phillies more times than I want to admit.

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  74. But a lot of prospects just turn into organizational filler, and let’s be honest, before this year, Rizzotti’s looked like another Andy Tracy, at best.

    As to why they might not try and find another position for Rizzotti before this year, look to our system now. There’s a reason people are eager to try Singleton in the outfield, but not Ruf, and it’s not because Ruf’s bat is better. It’s because no one cares if Ruf’s bat is blocked.

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  75. Singleton, by all reports, is far more athletic & faster than Rizzotti. That IMO is the reason why trying him in the OF is considered a reasonable option.

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  76. And obviously neither of us has inside information, so we are speculating, but I’d guess that the Phillies brain trust saw Rizz as at least a possible prospect prior to this season, and sees Ruf as organizational filler. Which is to say, you’re not wrong in the abstract, but as applied to Rizzotti, I think you are wrong.

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  77. My point about Ransom was, that Charlie is Charlie. He is going to give ABs against LHP to Ransom instead of a LHB rookie.

    Rizzotti only has value as a LHB 1B, and we’ve already got a better one on the bench. Since he can’t do anything else, he doesn’t help the ballclub and it would be a mistake to recall him. That’s all there is to it. There is no point even getting into a prospect’s trade value here.

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  78. “Let’s talk after his next start. I am betting it will be another quality start. And let hope you are right about Oswalt. I never saw him pitch before last start but it seems to be he is giving batters a nice look at the ball. Again I would like to be wrong.”

    Is Happ’s line of 1 ip, 7 earned with 3 bb considered a quality start?

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  80. Probably the Ed Wade connection. Afterall, he never did like Happ from his days in Philly!!

    All kidding aside, I’m a big fan of Happ and hope he does well in Houston. But I also realize he’s a back of the rotation starter..

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  84. Cat Stoker, Happ threw 49 pitches in the first inning. To put it into perspective, a 30+ pitch inning is considered a high stress inning. His day was done.

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  86. ****Happ is getting screwed in Houston. They should have let him pitch the 2nd inning.****

    Were you watching it at all? He was getting killed out there. He was pulled after Pujols ripped his soul out on a high fastball. He had nothing, the manager saw it and pulled the plug to limit the damage.

    ~flipped over to that inning during a Phillies commercial break~

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  87. Again, Nepp, I was kidding. It’s a reference to a comment nowheels made above. Seems like 3up3KKK got it. My apologies to those of you who didn’t.

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