VSL Early Season Update

1. VSL/DSL

We are now about one third done with the 2010 Phillies VSL season and we are starting to get a picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the squad.  The Phillies stand at 12-12 so far, tied for 3rd place in the 7 team league.  They trail the league leading Mariners by 2.5 games.  The Phillies have a relatively young offensive squad and a veteran pitching staff.  The young hitters, led by IF/C Willans Astudillo are holding their own, putting up a team OPS of .684.  The pitching staff is even better, though they are led by several older pitchers.The top hitter by far on the team so far has been IF/C Willans Astudillo.  Astudillo is hard to rate as a prospect at this stage as it looks like he does not have a set position.  The 18-year-old has played 3B and 2B for the most part this season with 1 game at catcher.  Last season he played more catcher than any other position.  His lack of playing time this year at catcher may have something to do with the team adding 3 new catchers in addition to Astudillo and 1 other holdover.  The team also lacks good middle infielders with the promotion of Nerio Rios to the GCL.  Astudillo is hitting .374 with a .915 OPS and 6 SB.  He is built more like a catcher at 5’9″, 182, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up.

Several other players are worth a mention in this early post.  CF Rosmel Fajardo won’t turn 18 until July and is hitting .290 so far with a .661 OPS and 4 SB.  Last year he only hit .169 as a 16-year-old.  Another outfielder putting up decent numbers is new Panamanian signee Jorge Miranda.  While a little old for the league at age 19, Miranda is hitting .274 with 1 HR and 19 RBI.  It is not uncommon for Panamanian players to develop a little later because there is not as much pressure on them at home to sign at age 16 as in some other Latin American countries.  Finally, C Jose Oliveros is the one young catcher putting up decent offensive numbers, hitting .300 with a .791 OPS.  Two older players (Luis Martinez – age 20/.342 and Edouards Tolo age 19/.286) are also putting up decent numbers though they are in their 4th and 3rd seasons respectively, making them unlikely prospects.

On the mound the Phillies are definitely an older group with the average pitching age of 19.5 years old (compared to the league average of 18.7).  In general the better prospects will be the ones that get regular innings at a young age, though we would also note that some pitchers develop a little later than hitters.  The first name to highlight on the pitching staff is new signee RHP Ronald Mendez.  Mendez fits the mold of taller, projectible pitchers at 6’5″ and 211 pounds at age 17.  He is a regular in the starting rotation with 5 starts so far.  He has a respectable 3.50 ERA in 18 IP (13 H, 7 BB, 8 K).  While he has a relatively low K rate, he is holding his own at a very young age.  LHP Audrys Mora, another 17-year-old, has also pitched well in limited time (7 IP, 2.57 ERA).

Two other starters are having good seasons so far, though they are slightly older.  18-year-old Jorge Guzman is finally putting together a decent season in his 3rd VSL campaign.  He has a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 IP (17 H, 10 BB, 13 K).  He turns 19 in August, so he is still relatively young.  Zael Honora is in his second season in the VSL and is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA so far.  In 19.1 IP he has given up 17 hits with 10 BB and 19 K.  His K rate is the best among the team’s regular starters.

LHP Ely Izturriaga is back in the VSL after a mediocre performance last season in the GCL.  He is currently the team’s closer (after starting last season) and has a 2.35 ERA with 17 Ks in 15.1 IP.  His demotion is probably a sign the team lacks confidence in him, though the move to the bullpen might mean the team sees him as a potential LOOGY-type reliever.  Other names worth mentioning early on include 19-year-old Moises Rivas (0.00 ERA in 9 IP with 9 Ks) and 20-year-old LHP Jorge Gonzalez (1.50 ERA in 12 IP with 12 Ks).

At this point we should not read too much into some of the younger pitchers struggling (like Jean Calanche – 7.56 ERA and Luis Morales – 18.00 ERA).  They still have plenty of time to develop.  This year’s VSL squad may not be as prospect-laden as some others in the recent past, but still has a number of names like Astudillo, Fajardo, and Mendez that might end up being decent prospects.  Next up we will take an early season look at the DSL squad (6-11 so far in the first few weeks).

14 thoughts on “VSL Early Season Update”

  2. I like young 19-20 year old pitchers to average a K an inning to be a prospect. That’s why I like lean, lanky Lisalberto Bonilla who has struck out 7 through five innings in the GCL lidlifter.

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  3. Bonilla is more of a prospect than Honora because he did blow through the DSL in one season after getting signed relatively late. He is dealing this afternoon (8 Ks though 6 so far). I still think most of the 19-20 year olds tend to be suspects rather than prospects. They really have to move quickly to be seen as prospects. Bonilla has never been less than dominant so that is a good sign.

    Noticed Maikel Franco has a 2B and is hitting 3rd today at age 17. That is a sign the team thinks very highly of him. The best DSL and VSL guys (like Franco and Lino Martinez) usually skip straight to the GCL.

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  4. Domonic Brown came into the season as the 14th best prospect in all of baseball and has over. 900 OPS in AA. In the meantime Strasburg, Heyward, Stanton, Castro, Alvarez, Santana, Feliz and Smoke have graduated. Some of the others have fallen back. Domonic Brown is probably a top 5 prospect in all of Baseball.
    Now someone is rating him 2nd in the Phillies organization behind Singleton?

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  6. Thanks for this, Andy. You do a great job keeping everyone abreast of VSL and DSL developments.

    Shame that Tolo didn’t earn a promotion. He may have absolutely no power to speak of, but he certainly has a discerning eye, with a 26-to-14 BB-to-K last summer, and a stellar 14-to-2 ratio this summer. I’d be interested to see what he could do stateside.

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  8. VSL is the Venezuelan Summer League and DSL is the Dominican Summer League. They are complex/rookie leagues for younger prospects, slightly below the level of the Gulf Coast League.

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  9. Eduards Tolo- last time I looked they had him at 5’9 140. Until this season, I believe he had only played 3B. So not the prototypical size for that position. This year it looks like he has played SS, with Astudillo at 2B and 3B mostly, and Rosmer Nunez at 2B and SS. I would say it might have been because that was about all they had for those positions.

    Speaking of all they had, what is the word on new MI signee, Albertin Chavez, and any word on the players looked at for becoming eligible on July 2?

    I have always seen it as Williams Astudillo, and I thought he was mostly a DH last season.

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  10. I think Tolo is not really a great shortstop. He is playing there because they promoted Rios and Perdomo and did not really have a true shortstop. I imagine he is bigger than 140 these days but he is still probably a tweener with not enough D for SS and not enough O for anywhere else.

    Nothing on Chavez as he is new. They did need to sign a middle infielder so he may just be stocking up at that position rather than a prospect. I have always seen Willians Astudillo as the spelling. Though the minor league site is often wrong. I think multiple places still think Sebastian Valle throws left-handed stemming from an error on his initial DSL roster. The Lakewood roster finally got that right this year.

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  13. I looked up Cespedes on MiLB.com and his status is Reserve List minors, which would seem to indicate he is still in Extended Spring Training, so I would guess he picked up some injury in XST before the Short Seasons started and is not ready to be placed on a roster at this time.

    That is something for when the Dominican League write-up comes, and maybe the word on the Nevri/Witer Jimenez dual identity manufactured or real controversy. The status of Nevri on MiLB.com is released , while Witer shows no past playing history but that could just be more error in the keeping of the records. Waiting for that Dominican report.

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  14. A second very nice start from Lisalberto Bonilla in the GCL. I was a little surprised we weren’t more aggressive with him after his dominating performance last year in the Dominican. Any word on his stuff?

    As of now, Jesus Pirela is the only first-year from either of the Caribbean leagues playing in the NYPL. I wonder if its an organizational strategy to keep most of these guys in Clearwater as a means to reducing the potential for ‘culture shock’ in their first year(s) stateside? Have we historically pushed many younger DSL/VSL grads directly to Williamsport? Bonilla and Cespedes seem to be two of our more intriguing academy pitchers in years, and I’m interested to see how they’ll be handled going forward.

    As an aside (which I believe I’ve seen mentioned here before), anyone who’s at all interested in the dynamics of major league involvement in the Dominican should really check out the film ‘Sugar’. It’s quite well done.

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