77 thoughts on “June 22nd discussion

  1. Nice pitching performances by May at CLW and Lisalberto Bonilla in the GCL. May went 6 with 1 H, 0 ER, 6 Ks but 4 BBs Those darn pesky walks). Bonilla, a guy I have on my watch list, went 6, giving up 6 Hs, 0 ER, 8 Ks and a BB. He’s a 6′ 1″ righty, 20 year old out of the DR.

    I noticed Chapman pitched at CLW. Santana came down to earth with a 4 K performance.

  2. Well looks like Percival Garner was a bust. He got rocked in his first minor league start ever couldn’t get out of the second inning giving up 4 runs. What a wasted pick that was…….

  3. Yeah, he had a bad outing so it must have been a terrible pick. Just like Colvin’s first few starts. We should have cut Colvin a long time ago, right?

  4. do you guys think Singleton and Cosart will be on BA top 100 list by the beginning of next year?

  5. They will both absolutely be top 100. Cosart has a shot at top 25 and I think Singleton has a shot, depending how he finishes the year, of top 50.

  6. ****They will both absolutely be top 100. Cosart has a shot at top 25 and I think Singleton has a shot, depending how he finishes the year, of top 50.****

    We’ll see. I think you’re being a bit optimistic on the Top 25 and Top 50 things. Its tough for Low A guys to get that high usually. I could see both in the Top 100 if they continue with their current levels of production…by no means a guarantee.

  7. Not disagreeing with you NEPP. For Singelton, if he keeps up these ridiculous numbers, I think he will be top 50. Not sure he can keep it up, but I’ve been saying that since he had 50 ABs.

    As for Cosart, I go by KLaw saying he’ll be in the discussion as top 10, so by saying he has a shot at top 25, don’t think that’s jumping too far out on the limb. Won’t be surprised one bit if he’s not in the top 25.

    I think a more realistic approach would be Cosart top 50 and Singleton top 100. But, I do believe they both have a SHOT at the figures I said!

  8. And let’s all agree that IF Biddle has a bad outing on Friday, let’s NOT call it a wasted pick. Please.

  9. ****I think a more realistic approach would be Cosart top 50 and Singleton top 100. But, I do believe they both have a SHOT at the figures I said!****

    That’s honestly what I think will happen. We’ll have Dom Brown as a Top 5 or 10, Cosart and Singleton in the Top 100 somewhere and maybe that’ll be all…with a few honorable mentions hopefully.

  10. Hey Tom guess you have a hard time deciphering sarcasm I’ve been around long enough to completely understand the process works and it cracks me the way make such declarations after small samples, so i figured I’d have a little fun

  11. If people want to say Biddle was a wasted pick, they can say it because he was a batboy in the 1st game (Conlin).

    GCL- Maikel Franco started at 3B (barely 17) 4 AB’s 1 H, 0 K’s)
    Looks like new signee Catcher Chachee Numata is a month and a half younger than Franco. DNP- Francisco Diaz started at Catcher over Numata and last year’s draftee Marlon Mitchell, also new signee Robert Stumpo.

    OF was Aaron Altherr in CF, Luis Beltre in RF, and Geancarlo Mendez (also plays 1B and 2B, DH) in LF. Chris Duffy was DH. Roster looks like they might use Duffy at 1B.

    Ryan Bollinger was released a couple days back, also don’t see Rudney Balentien.

  12. munninghoff, thanks for posting the article. Please, please, please do not let the Phils turn Cosart into a closer!

    In other news, I liked what Mark Parent had to say about that game. Seems to me that he is a good person to be responsible for shepherding young talent forward.

  13. Santana = 17 yrs old = will look bad one day, great the next.

    Hopefully we have more production, better confidence booster at W’port. I just want to see him get a little better each year after the season is over. Another FIL this fall and XST next spring will put him at another level, hopefully ready to rake at Lakewood next year.

  14. all of this talk about top 10 or top 25 or top 100 is silly at best. it is an arbitrary ranking that has no impact on a player’s career. frankly, i think that it shows a lack of understanding to keep harping on this point. if a player hits well, he gets bumped a level. if he continues to hit then he goes up and up until he can’t hit. Chase Utley is a hall of fame 2nd baseman and never was a “top 10” prospect. he was never even listed as a top 50 prospect. ryan howard (another HOFer) wasn’t ever listed in the top 25. it is a meaningless designation. can we please advance the discussion to more meaningful analysis?

  15. I’ve been withholding judgment on Savery for a while, but my conclusion is he’s not going to have a lot of success at the ML level, if he ever gets there. When do they have to make a decision about him for the 40 man? Is that this coming year?

  16. Keith Law has said a few times that currently Cosart would be just outside the top 25 and that scouts say he’s the second best arm in all the minors leagues this year. I wonder who was number 1??? haha

  17. @PPFAN, fair enough. I think I use the BA listings as a gauge to determine the amount of “perceived” talent in our system – for trades, development, etc. Your point is well taken however.

    I’m a bit new to this website, so is everyone definitely putting Trevor May below Cosart now?

  18. That’s two really nice articles by Tyler Dunne, on Singleton and Cosart. I say he is the official minor league writer of phuturephillies.com. His writing does not quite sing, like some of the more lyrical prose we have enjoyed in Philly over recent decades, but it hums nicely, very effective, and he seems to have a solid understanding of minor league acquisition and development. Most important, he can tell a story.

  19. ****I’m a bit new to this website, so is everyone definitely putting Trevor May below Cosart now?****

    I think they’re raw stuff is comparable but that Cosart has much better control so he seems to be sliding ahead so far this year. May needs to figure out his control to keep moving forward.

  20. Yes , this is the year for Savery to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft, also Rizzotti, Domonic Brown, I think Freddy Galvis, and maybe a couple of guys they might consider who were passed over earlier.

  21. Franco was signed for $100K last February out of the Dominican. They have also looked at him as a catcher though it appears his first position is 3B for now.

  22. savery is having a terrible year. i don’t think that he will be a philly next year.

  23. Good to see GCL Phils off to a winning start. Good luck to Blueclaws in tonite’s SALLY all-star game!

  24. If Trevor May finishes the season strongly, is Reading out of the question for next year?

  25. Klaw said that Cosart was just outside the top 25 (?) for him at the time. But that was before the draft and a couple of those guys are going to slot into a top 100 in front of Cosart & Singleton. At the same time it’s not outside the realm of possibility that both Cosart & Singleton will be top 50 guys despite being in low A, especially for lists that give extra credit to ceiling over floor, because a slew of top talent graduated in the last few weeks, the tip top tier of players in the draft this year was shallow, and talent in the minors right now is generally considered down. Of course, there’s a lot of baseball left to play this year and a lot can go wrong for an 18 yo.

  26. I hope Rube doesn’t even talk about Cosart and singleton at the deadline. I’m sure teams will offer players like Jake Westbrook for them saying “well they are only in low A.” Wasn’t Santana in A ball when the Dodgers traded him for Casey Blake?

  27. @PPFAN: top 100 rankings are just fun shorthand for how players and systems are doing.

  28. This is not directly prospect related but we don’t pay enough attention to the Managers and Coaches. They help the kids develop and provide leadership and guidance. Interesting coaching note from last night:
    Dusty Wathan was thrown out of last nights game in the 1st inning. How often is a Manager thrown out of a game in the 1st? I’d say that it’s very rare and usually occurs as a hangover from a previous game. It looks like he got tossed for arguing Darin Ruf getting picked off 1st base. He was probably arguing that the pitcher balked. The team responded well with a 4 – 0 victory.

  29. I’ve seen Savery pitch at Reading and at Lehigh Valley. If possible, he is a little slower this year. His fastball sat at 83-85 the start I saw him this year, touching 86-87 occassionaly. When I saw him at Reading, his FB sat 86-87 and he touched 90. Seems the case of a guy who never recovered from arm surgery and lacks both the fastball velocity and the control necessary to be a major league pitcher. He seems to offer close to nothing at this point.

  30. I think, until May masters his command, he should probably not be promoted to AA, even if, the K numbers are good and the ERA is decent. I realize, for the most part, he’ll toy with hitters, but he should focus on what he needs to do in a less stressful atmosphere. Once he starts to conquer that issue, he should be promoted and, my sense is that he’ll then progress extremely quickly. We don’t need another Aumont situation on our hands.

  31. @Jbird – my point is it is fine to look at it, but the incessant harping on it is annoying. it is meaningless really. Pat Burrell was a higher rated prospect than Utley and Howard. over analysis on these rankings is a waste of time.

  32. May has an interesting stat, and that is he’s significantly better against left handed batters than right handed batters

  33. PPFan, I agree with that. Not sure Brown will be in Top 5 or Top 10 for that matter. Looking at all of baseball, there might be guys rated slightly higher. In the end, it really doesn’t mean anything. You comparision to how Burrell was rated is exactly right.

  34. @Dan concerning the deadline I couldn’t imagine RAJ dealing either of the two. This past off season he was all about replenishing the farm. Its possible if he were to attempt to make a big trade someone like May or Colvin might be bait, considering we have Cosart and which ever one he wanted to keep. It would maintain at least 2 possible top tier pitching prospects, so a move along those lines isn’t unthinkable. I personally would hate any move

  35. I have been saying all alonmg that Savery should be judged at the end of the season, but I must say that he has really been disappointing so far for LV. It seems like his arm strength ‘is what it is’, with no improvement on the fastball. He might be included in a deal at the deadline, as a throw-in former prospect.

  36. I’ve updated the “Rosters” page at the top. It now includes everyone that the Phillies have under contract, as far as I can tell. If anyone knows about any of the guys listed as “under contract but not assigned” please let me know. Also, if there’s anyone missing from one of the rosters, please let me know. Thanks.

  37. When Dom Brown made the prospect hot sheet a couple weeks ago they mentioned that he was a leading contender for minor league player of the year. That should put him in the top 5.

  38. Marlon Mitchell gets the start today in the GCL.

    For people who follow the VSL, is Manzanillo a prospect? He looks kind of old and did not have good numbers last year in the VSL. I’m assuming these first four innings are fluky.

  39. Ryan Bollinger was released? Any idea what the circumstances were there? He was a high school sign from 2009 – seems a bit premature unless there were some other off-field issues.

  40. Regarding Joe Savery: I would not waste a roster spot on him. I would rather have the 50k if someone claimed him in the rule 5. Besides, they are going to have to protect Brown, Rizzotti, Correa and Harold Garcia. They won’t have any spots to waste.

  41. “all of this talk about top 10 or top 25 or top 100 is silly at best. it is an arbitrary ranking that has no impact on a player’s career. frankly, i think that it shows a lack of understanding to keep harping on this point.”

    For that matter, all of this following players who probably won’t make the majors is a big waste of time, too. And don’t get me started on BABIP– it’s just silly to create a statistical measurement for luck.

    It doesn’t show a lack of understanding at all, it shows a desire to see, from an objective standpoint, how the prospects that we so avidly follow stack up against the ones that belong to other teams. Its almost a matter of pride like, “my prospects can beat up your prospects.” And its fun to do! Which, of course, is the whole point of following prospects in the first place.

  42. Regarding the GCL starting Catching assignments: Does anyone think that the language barrier plays a part in who starts with which pitcher? I really expected Mitchell to be the opening day GCL starter. With Bonilla starting yesterday, maybe they cannot communicate yet.

  43. I did not think Manzanillo was much of a prospect based on last year in the VSL. But the fact that he is starting may mean I was wrong. The vast majority of the starts generally go to the best prospects as opposed to the filler. Does not mean he is a great prospect (did Cespedes get hurt?), but it may mean he has more stuff than we thought.

    He is left-handed and sometimes lefties develop a little later.

  44. I think Savery should pack it in now, go to GCL and play 1B, then FIL, with the plan to go to W’port or L’wood next year. He could be a hitter in the Rick Ankiel mold, which ain’t HOF, but a better chance than throwing 83. He might make it to Reading, if protected, by late 2012. He was a very good college hitter.

  45. I’m not convinced Savery would be any more successful as a hitting prospect. In college he controlled the strike zone and made solid contact, but didn’t have the power one wants from a 1B. He was basically a touch better than Darin Ruf (albeit in a better league). These are approximate:

    Ruf: .331/.432/.511
    Savery: .355/.448/.528

    In Matt Spencer’s one year at ASU, he showed the kind of power a 1B should have: .378/.448/.616

    More comparisons:

    Rizzotti: .367/.499/.616 at Manhattan College
    Bozied: .343/.434/.635 at San Francisco
    Dobbs: .428/.474/.671 at Oklahoma
    Sellers: .369/.424/.623 at Eastern Kentucky
    Jim Murphy: .295/.413/.503 at Washington State

    No perfect comps here, but his college numbers generally don’t jump out to me as suggesting he would be any better than what we already have. (and don’t forget Singleton!)

  46. I don’t think we should be hung up on Savery’s bat as a first basemen. If they were going to convert Savery into a position player, I wonder if he would be better served as a corner outfielder… he certainly has the athleticism and arm for it.

  47. I agree on Savery. I think he profiles as a mediocre hitting prospect. Not that his pitching status is much better at this point, but I would think there is a better chance he regains that lost 3-4 mph on his fastball than him making it as a hitter. Guys like Ankiel had more defensive tools and raw power than Savery unfortunately.

  48. I would think JDF belongs on the 40 man before Correa does. There’s also Brummett,Chapman,Diekman & I think Sampson too? Should be interesting to see who’s protected & who isn’t….

  49. In the GCL, it appears pitchers are far ahead of the hitters. 3 hits for each team in today’s game and another 2 – 1 game. The Phils won it. Luis Paulino got the win. He’s a converted 3rd baseman. Shuler from the Colorado School of Mines got the save. I remember when he was announced as a pick I thought they said Mimes.

  50. I don’t know if this has been said yet but congratulations to Domonic Brown and Jarred Cosart on making the futures game!

  51. if rizzotti is eligable rule 5 guy do u see him being added two the 40-man or do you see a team like oakland taking him in the offseason.

  52. Domonic Brown and Quentin Berry UGLY collision on a potential 3rd out fly ball. Error was scored to Berry. Both were slow to get up especially Berry. Big time failure to communicate error could have went either way.

  53. How many games long is Brown’s hitting streak now? At least 11 from what I can tell on MiLB.com

    5 HRs in his last 7 games.

  54. Dom brown- a fairly spectacular catch on a high velocity fly ball, glove over and behind head while back peddling, tumbling backwards rolling and holding on to the ball

  55. Looks like they have Aumont lined up with Sanchez. Sanchez only goes five again and Aumont relieves. He struck out the side in his first inning of relief

  56. was at the crosscutters game mario hollands was hit hard. Most of his problem was he was exposing his pitches before he threw them. Most of the players could tell what pitch was coming before he released it. Jesus Pirela came in in relief and gave up 1er 3bbs 7ks in 4.2ip

  57. Don’t look much into Sanchez going 5 innings…remember just minor leaguers…not looking to blow out there arms…max out 150-160 ips. He is around 80 IP so he is on pace. Plus they want to give Aumont some innings

  58. Rule 5 draft- Quinton Berry was added to roster last season to protect and he was from the 2006 draft, so next is the ’07 draft the one topped by Savery. Rizzotti was a 6th round pick in that draft out of Manhattan College , so he is eligible, as are High School picks left from the ’06 draft like Domonic Brown.

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