Welcome to this week’s edition of the weekly notes column. Before digging into this week’s notes, I wanted to kind of throw a warning out there. Over the next few weeks, I may begin to play around with different themes/layouts for the site. I’ve actually brightened the color red in the header so it stands out a bit more, but like anything you become overly familiar with, sometimes you want something new. I’ve never been fully in love with the wordpress templates available, I’ve tried to make them work because I don’t have the skills or abilities to build and maintain a website with regular HTML. That said, I did explore the possibility of having a custom wordpress form built, but the price tag is prohibitive. Because of that, I may just tinker with other themes and layouts. Don’t worry, the content will remain the same, and if I do go with a bigger change and move stuff around, I’ll create a road map so you can find everything. So the takeaway from that story; if you click on the page in the next few weeks and it looks really weird, don’t tweak out, just give me some time and I’ll do my best. Thanks. Now, onto the notes…
Leading Off
I wanted to comment on something that I’ve been noticing over the last few months, but really its been like this since the site started. Generally speaking, most people tend to overrate their own team’s prospects. When a player has a big start, or a position player has a great week, its really easy to get ahead of ourselves anointing that player as the next elite prospect. On the other side, when a guy struggles for a few months, or even a year, its easy to discard him and move on to the next guy. This happens everywhere, including this site and the prospects sites for every team out there. In the last year, I’ve tried to actually remedy this from my end, taking a more pessimistic view of our prospects (and prospects in general) and always trying to present the positives, the negatives, the best case, and the worst case for each guy. In the comments sections, its pretty common for people to immediately start projecting how prospect x will take over for big leaguer y, and while this is funny sometimes, I think it does bring up a good opportunity to kind of highlight just what we’re up against.
If you go back through a 10 year sample of MLB drafts, looking at all 30 teams, you will see a very strong trend; most players drafted don’t make it to the majors, let alone become even average players, and a very tiny amount actually go on to become stars. I began to study the draft period from 1990-2000, and after looking at about 20 teams, the common thread was that, on average, about 8% of the players drafted by each team ended up making it to the majors. In some seasons, a team might only draft 1 major leaguer out of 50 picks. Sometimes a team really hits a home run, and they are able to get 12-15 players from one draft to the majors, but its really rare. The attrition rate for prospects is extremely high. Sometimes its an injury that derails a player, sometimes its a major league curveball, and sometimes its the inability to throw a changeup. No matter what the reason, the reality is that most guys aren’t going to make it. In a given year, if you make 50 picks and 10 of those guys turn into big leaguers, you’ve done a fantastic job. More realistically, if 5 of those guys make it you’ve done a great job. In some cases, if one guy makes it, but he turns into an all star, he still pays for your entire draft, and then some.
Which brings me back to the idea of projecting prospects 5 years down the line. Its really pointless. I was as high on Jon Singleton as anyone, ranking him 9th in my top 30 this winter. But he’s been at Lakewood for a little over a week. He’s 18. There shouldn’t be any talk about him pushing Ryan Howard out of the lineup. There shouldn’t even be talk about when he’s going to be ML ready. He was in the GCL last year, and he’s one of the youngest players in the SAL now. He’s not going to be in the majors for at least 4 years. There’s no reason to think about when he gets there, or think about changing his position, or think about anything else. There’s a very good chance that if Singleton continues to hit, he’ll be transferred into the “trade chip” category in the next 3 seasons. Ryan Howard is here for the foreseeable future, Jon Singleton won’t be pushing him anywhere for at least 5 seasons, so we may as well just focus on his prospect status, not his impact on the big league roster.
This isn’t to say people shouldn’t be pumped up about our prospects. If you spend a considerable amount of time here, or even more time writing articles/features for this site, then you obviously are very much invested in the Phillies prospects. But I think enthusiasm should be purely in how a prospect’s stock is rising, not how that player will be impacting the MLB roster, especially if said player hasn’t even cracked the AA roster yet.
Around the Horn
Lakewood: This Lakewood roster is easily the most compelling collection of players that I can remember since I’ve been interested in minor league baseball. On any given night, you have a very good pitching prospect starting, you’ve got a lineup filled with guys capable of delivering monster games, and anything really can happen. Some nights, its all negative, but on some nights its absolutely fantastic. And speaking of fantastic, how about Jon Singleton. I went way out on a limb ranking him 9th this past winter, and so far he’s repaying my faith, doing a little bit of everything thus far, including showing good discipline at the plate, hitting for average, and hitting for power. He’s eventually going to cool down a bit, and like any 18 year old, he’s going to have his rough patches, but so far so good. As I discussed above, tempering expectations is a vital aspect of following prospects, but he’s definitely got me excited. On the pitching side, one can’t help but be both excited and confused by what Brody Colvin has done this year. After 4 rough starts to open the season, he’s alternated between the awful and the awesome, and 2 of his last 3 starts have been excellent, where’s he’s gone 6+ and allowed a single run, with 10 K. Of course in the start in between, he allowed 5 ER in 1.2 IP. Today, he posts his best start as a pro; 7 IP – 0 ER – 2 H – 1 BB – 7 K. I’d really love if someone could get some video of him pitching this summer, I’d love to see if the Phillies have done anything to alter his delivery/mechanics.
Clearwater: Harold Garcia is back and playing for Clearwater, and the early returns look positive as he looks to build on his solid season at Lakewood in 2009. He’s at .308/.419/.423 after just 26 AB, and he’s done a bit of everything, including drawing a few walks, swiping a few bags, and making solid contact. At 23, he’s old for the FSL, but if he continues to hit, he could still carve out a utility role in the big leagues, especially because his speed will make him an asset, as will his ability to play 2B. I get asked a bunch about guys that I feel are taking steps forward/guys that are taking steps back this year, and one guy I really feel I missed on when putting together my top 30 is Jesus Sanchez. The converted catcher continues to impress, as he now has a 3.06 ERA in 50 IP, allowing 44 H, 16 BB and 35 K. He doesn’t have a dominant groundball rate, and he’s been better against lefties than righties, so I’m not quite sure what to make of him, but it seems like he has a good idea of what he’s doing on the mound. This kind of makes sense, as catchers are expected to manage a game, know the opponent, and help come up with a gameplan. Having seen that part of the game, he probably has an edge on the mound. I need more reports on his raw stuff, including fastball velo and more importantly, movement, but he’s an intriguing guy, and at just 22 for the entire 2010 season, is well within the age range considering he was a conversation project. At 5’11/160, he’s undersized, especially for a RHP, which will no doubt bring up durability questions, but he remained healthy last year while pitching for the first time, and he’s already logged 50 innings this season. So far so good.
Reading: One thing I always stress, when discussing the age related to level stuff, is that a guy who is in a league where he doesn’t belong can only dominate, force a promotion, and then continue to dominate. That’s how you go from org filler to on the radar and then back to fringe prospect. I noted during my position by position breakdowns for the SONAR scores intro that Rizzotti had a surprisingly productive season last year in the FSL despite being old for the league. He got off to a similarly hot start this year, and was then bumped to Reading. So far so good, as he’s hitting .478/.556/.783 in 8 games (23 AB). He’s walked more than he’s struck out (3 to 2), and has 4 doubles already, as well as 1 HR. All you can do, no matter where you are in the minors, is put up numbers. At 24, he’s still old for AA, but is now facing better pitching. A big season this year and he might have a shot to carve out a bench role, maybe even fringe starting role (not on the Phillies though) in the future. I’ve stressed this before, but I wanted to just comment again on Phillippe Aumont. His numbers this season have not been great. He’s shown flashes of brilliance (the partial no hitter on April 25th), and has also shown flashes of the rawness of his stuff/ability. When you’re trying to overhaul your mechanics, the nuances of the game are often secondary to trying to repeat your delivery, trying to throw a specific amount of a certain pitch, and working on other details that won’t show up in the box score. The minor leagues are for learning and instruction, and what Aumont is going through is the essence of learning. He’s been brilliant at times, awful at times, and in between at times. Such is the life of a young guy learning on the job.
Lehigh Valley: I wish I had more to add on the Lehigh Valley roster, but gregg does an awesome job providing analysis and coverage here, that anything I would have to add he’s probably already covered. One thing that I do find strange is that Joe Savery went from a solid groundball pitcher in 2008 (50.3%) to 45.6% last year, to 36% this year. Maybe its just noise right now and he’ll be back in the 45% range by the end of the year, but that was really his one lone bright spot, that he could generate groundballs and limit the home runs. His 5.09 FIP this season really tells the whole story, and the story isn’t pretty. Maybe the Phillies could toy with the idea of having him be a true 2 way player in the big leagues, using him as both a bench guy and a reliever. Whether he’d be good enough for either role is questionable, and the more likely result is that he’s just another footnote on the Wayne Graham Wall of Shame.
This concludes an abbreviated version of the notes column this week. I saw abbreviated, and its more than 2,000 words. I’m still working on something for the draft, but I need to do a bit more research before posting it. It might come in next week’s notes column, or I may do a separate piece, we’ll see. I also forgot to solicit mailbag questions, but we’ll bring that back next week.
Until then…
Phuture Phillies 
I am still pretty bullish on Colvin. I’d rather see some rough patches peppered with dominant performances than a series of consistent mediocre performances. He has shown the ability to dominate at times, and we don’t know yet what is happening in the hiccups (working on a specific pitch, brain cramp on mechanics, etc.). If he is healthy and can gradually become more consistent (pretty good to dominant with only the occasional burp), I am happy with his first year. Progressing to the point where he can be promoted next year will be a success for him.
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I think Savery himself has to make a choice. Phils can suggest, bit he is the ultimate decider and the one who has to get 150% behind a conversion to offense. He will have to be a .290 hitter with 20+ HR power to make it at 1B. And we will need 1-2 years to find out if that is possible.
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Diamond maybe your right but how did you come up with those number. What indicated that he could hit major league pitching with power.
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Rocky:
From Rice site:
“One of the premier two-way players in the country… Plays and practices hard every day with high expectations for himself and his teammates.”
Wayne Graham said — “Joe is obviously one of the premier pitchers and hitters in college baseball. He always has a chance to have a great year.”
“Finished among the C-USA leaders in hits (85), RBI (66), runs (61), doubles (20), walks (50), total bases (134), on-base percentage (.442) and plate appearances (309)… Steady hitter who batted .335 for the season, .330 in C-USA games and .333 at the College World Series… Named C-USA Tourament MVP after hitting .400 (6-for-15) with a home run, five RBI, four walks and seven runs scored… Maintained a .394 average with runners in scoring position and was 5-for-10 with the bases loaded… Slugged two or more hits in a game 24 times, including a season high three hits seven different times… Hit safely in a season-high 15 consecutive games leading up to the NCAA super regional… Drove in two or more runs in a game 17 times to lead the team… Only Owl to drive in five runs in a game three different times, and all were against eventual regional teams San Diego, Houston and Southern Miss (with a grand slam)… Intentionally walked a teamleading three times… Drew four walks in one game at Marshall… Successful on seven of eight steal attempts… Defense at first base was a solid .996… “
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Cosart’s stock has definitely been rising. I feel he’s the top pitching prospect in the system at this point. May could retake that spot but he really needs to resolve his control issues. Regardless, really like the results from Cosart, May, Colvin, and Shreve so far.
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Also, the numbers I wrote were what I thought would be a minimum projection. If he is not a top slugger, then he has to hit for average with at least pretty good power and take walks for a High OBP. Something like a Mark Grace.
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ACG: Agree we have 4 premium arms there. Maybe Aumont, Ramirez, Sanchez, Pettibone, Hernandez and 1 or 2 others can eventually enlarge that pool of starter or top bullpen prospects.
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Are there any analyses that show how success at AA translates? What percentage of successful AA guys make the majors? Have significant major league careers? Become stars?
Stating the issue differently, what percentage of players who are Top 100 prospects after successful AA seasons become significant big leaguers or stars? Top 25? Top 10?
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hey guys…I love this site and I have been following the minors for the last year and a half…Im planning on catching a game at Lakewood on Tuesday. Does anyone know who is starting pitcher? Thanks!!!
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Looks like it’s Matt Way is starting
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Sam, my best guess is Pettibone but it depends what they are planning on doing with Shreve, so it could be him. Things are a bit out of whack with a doubleheader last Wednesday and Hernandez being placed on the DL.
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Thanks for the notes, pp. I was sure you were going to give Gose a shout out for his much-improved May (so far). Is it flukier than it appears on the surface? I haven’t looked at BABIP or LD rates or anything.
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jon pettibone was placed on the 7-day DL and is expected to miss 1 start nick hernandez is expected to miss 2 starts
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I think Rizzotti is probably our best piece of trade bait? Hopefully we use him on a SS talent.
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Sanchez keeps popping onto my radar. I keep saying that he’s not a top 30 prospect but his numbers are solid. He has to be the most consistent starter in the Philly farm system. He’s started 9 games. He’s never gone less than 5 innings. The most runs he’s given up in any game this year is 3 (that was twice). He gives CLW a shot to win every game he pitches. He’s 4-4 so his run support hasn’t been tremendous. Last night’s game he gave up two runs but the Threshers were shut out.
Hernandez and Cosart have been very consistent (consistently good) but each had 1 blow up game.
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Thanks guys i thought it was Pettibones spot but i did see him on the 7 day dl…so Way or maybe Shreve….should be fun no matter what!
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Savery- I did not see anything about a full=time conversion to 1B, what was proposed was he stay a pitcher and be a long releiver-spot starter- mop up type and also work in hitting enough to an occasional pinch hitter and a little 1B. As far as working up to a full-time position at 1B, I would think he would have no shot, even to exceed many minor league 1B types. A full time regular , that’s a long shot.
Rizzotti has little trade value, except perhaps as a throw-in piece in a trade for someone with a big salary another team wants to unload, until he establishes himself as a viable MLB bench player. Top SS prospect back, I think not.
SS front- I see Jonathon Villar is up to 17 steals at Lakewood after 4 2 games back and 2 in yesterdays. Only trailing Gose by 2, though Gose seems to be contributing more offensively lately so maybe he will move into a period of more steals in the upcoming period.
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It’s true that Gose is doing better in May, and is probably an extremely exciting player to watch run the bases. However, 12 CS seems a bit too high. It would seem to me that he needs to work on reading pitchers a bit better.
– Jeff
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In an interview earlier this year Colvin talked about how they changed his grip on the change from a split to a circle. This might explain some of his early season troubles.
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How deep of a whole should the Phillies let Domingo Santana dig for himself before they stop the bleeding? We’re probably not there yet, but, at this point, they have to seriously be considering sending him down when the short season begins.
I do recall, however, last year, that Travis D’Arnaud started out a lot like this, then finished the year strong and hasn’t stopped hitting since. Of course, it’s a completely different situation, so it’s difficult to draw proper analogies.
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I think sending DS to Short season was the plan all along. He has had his spots. Don’t worry either he has the guts to be a player or not. Some guys fall at the first punch. Some fight harder. The latter makes it.
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****Travis D’Arnaud started out a lot like this, then finished the year strong and hasn’t stopped hitting since.****
I think D’Arnaud had a rough start last year simply because he was splitting time with Valle in Lakewood. At least, I don’t think that situation helped him all that much as far as getting into a groove.
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Ill say it again (and I hope im wrong) but GCP (gose cant play) and neither cane Hewitt, although I dont think that will be that controversial a statement around here.
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Yes, you’ve said it before about Gose not being able to play, and it’s still a bunch of BS. The kid is NINETEEN in high A ball. He’s striking about a bit much, but has improved steadily through out the year … past 10 games – .326/.341/.512 … OPS of .853. To say he can’t play is just plain ridiculous. He’s got tools and is being challenged at the level he’s at. He’s not performing as a star, but he is not overwhelmed either. I’m not that concerned with the caught stealings … give him some hours with Davey Lopes next Spring and he will improve.
I’m not saying he’ll be a major league starter, but to say he can’t play is just absolutely ludicrous.
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hey im just going on numbers and what ive seen from him in games ive watched. Again, I hope im wrong, but nothing I saw out of lakewood would make me think he could play. He doesnt turn 20 until august, so he has that working against him and yes, his last 10 games he is doing better, but his strikeout rate has gone up in CLW and even in his last 10 it is higher than LOW A.
Can we agree that Hewitt is a disaster? He already turned 21 last month.
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The league OPS in the Florida State League is .685. Gose is actually hitting above the league average, and that doesn’t factor in his defensive and baserunning contributions either.
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I do think Hewitt is a disaster, no question. I don’t even follow him in the box scores anymore. Assume you meant Gose’s age was working FOR him??
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yes, forgive me error, I meant not turning 20 until Aug works for him.
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Oh, and Gose’s K rate over his last 10 is a bit lower (20.9%) in his last 10 than last year (21.6%) … still WAY too high for a leadoff guy.
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a hypothetical question. taking dom brown out of the mix name the players the phillies could use from their system to obtain roy oswalt. i see no one and i think virtually any other sysyem could offer the astro,s more. it,s just my opinion but show me i,m wrong. if i am wrong i would make a deal for oswalt, without brown tomorrow.
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Since it is only hypothetical, I think any deal where the Astros could get a player that is talked about has having the second best arm in the minors (to Steven Strasburg) and a potential top ten prospect (per K. Law), that it wouldn’t take much else to get him besides Jared Cosart.
Cosart, a tool shed and a strong minor league are would get a deal done, or give the Astros some leverage to make a deal elsewhere.
John, don’t you think that would be enough? As a Philly fan, I wouldn’t do that deal from a Phillies perspective, but would jump at it as an Astro fan.
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meant strong minor league bullpen arm
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John, your wrong. Any 2 players in the Philles pre-season top 13, would be enough to get Roy Oswalt. Oswalt’s value is not high because he is not good enough to be a 16mil per year pitcher anymore. Plus he has another year left on his deal and a 2 million dollar buyout in 2012.
I doubt Houston trades him, because nobody is going to give up good prospects for the right to pay him that salary. The Phillies certainly are not going to make an offer to him, but if I had to guess, it would be Texas who matches the best.
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oswalt at 38 million for the next 2 and a half years is a steal. but is cosart that good? i dont know. but i would think that cosart and singleton could be bettered by any number of teams. but if i could get oswalt for cosart and singleton i would do it in a second. oswalt,s one of the top 5 pitchers in the n.l. the only question is his back which i would have examined 50 times. and if cosart is as good as i,m reading he must be a hell of a pitcher.
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btw i forgot imo houston will definitely move him and recieve a kings ransom. i think any number of teams will give up top prospects for him. his salary is ridiculously cheap and he cant go anywhere. his fastball 95 and his duece are filthy. i dont know where anyone got the idea he cant pitch.
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Well, if you would trade your #2 prospect (Cosart) for Oswalt, when you already have Halladay and Hamels you are plain dumb. You do not know how to manage rescources, if that is your wish.
The only teams that should bid for Oswalt, are teams that are in the playoff hunt, but do not have anything resembling an ace. Any team that would trade for Oswalt, will wait to see if Lee is put on the block, unless they offer below average prospects for Oswalt first.
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What if Washington get in the race for Oswalt or Lee and brings up Strasberg? They have the player to trade and need a winner.
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What if you guys stop talking about Roy Oswalt here?
Its the same characters all the time. It just never ends.
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NO NO WHEELS PLEASE
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Saw Cosart pitch in Hagerstown earlier in the season. He is the real deal. Great command and control with a mid 90’s fastball and a sweeping breaking ball. Potential to be a No. 1.
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I always trying to project the Phillies fringe minor leaguers into serviceable bench players due to the huge cost of the starters in the majors.
Garcia and Rizzotti are those types: speedy middle infielder and power pinch hitter. With some rising bullpen types and high projection starters lower in the system, they have some nice options. Just seems to be at odds with the major league manager who seems to want old vets for those roles.
Thanks for the weekly updates.
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Rizzotti’s a good average hitter but not much of a power hitter. His ISO’s are comparably low compared to other prospects in the system. It’s hard to see where Rizzotti fits honestly. He can’t really play defense. So you have a DH/1B who hits for average on a five man bench.
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Oswalt will not bring a king’s randome for 38million reasons, he is way over priced at his age andf not as good as he used to be.
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donald 2-2, marson 2-4 tonite
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So what?
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Donald and Marson were spare part players who would not start on the current team and Carrasco is a frustrating player who is probably nothing better than a 3-5 starter in the big leagues – I don’t miss him just as I don’t miss Gavin Floyd – he’s just another guy out there. The Lee trade gave both teams fair value and, given that Lee dominated in the postseason, I’d say the Phils got more than their values-worth and moneys-worth in that trade.
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PP – Your opening comments were very good, thanks. Singleton does look awfully good plus a picture I saw of him looked like he had bulked up quite a bit form his high school pictures (pretty normal I guess). I’ve watched sanchwz throw and he throws a sinking fastball that looks very effective and he didn’t look small to me at all. As for Gose, he has game changing speed if he can figure out some things and at 19 in Hi A, he has time to do just that.
Btw, Donald and Marson are what they are, temporary starters on a bad team. I follow them both but neither is going to be a first division starter. Marson will be replaced any day now by Santana and Donald is only holding the position warm during an injury. As far as trading Rizzotti, go back and read PP’s first paragraph above. And as far as Savery becoming a hitter again, I’m all for it but it is interesting to realize that he won his 1st game yesterday with his first walkless start of the season. No coinicidence…
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look at oswalt’s statistical trends. his best years are behind him…during the last 5 years his IP have decreased , whip/era have gone up almost every year during this time, and his K rates have decreased). so I wouldn’t be in a hurry to give prospects up for an overpaid, injury risk SP who is on the downside of his career. I don’t like overpaying for diminishing returns (like ryan howard’s horrendous contract). I think most here tend to overrate the phils prospects, but there is no way in hell I’d include cosart in a deal for oswalt.
and marson and donald updates are pointless…those guys are bench players at best (another case of people here making phils prospects something they never will be). what’s marson’s OPS? .400? he stinks
I think the same guy said he’d give up 2 prospects for oswalt…then gave an update on marson/donald. come on bro, that’s the kind of crap I hear on 610
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Since Aumont is trying to overhaul his mechanics and is just 21 years old, wouldn’t he be better off in Clearwater than Reading?
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nameless read the post again. i was inquiring as to how good cosart actually is. of course oswalt is nowhere the pitcher kendrick is and howard is a complete waste of time. why he looks like he,s ready to fall apart any moment.
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Agree, Aumont in Clearwater should have been the way to go. Lets not forget Seattle had him in the bullpen at the end of the year last. Him converting back to starter, and working on mechanics, Clearwater would have been a better fit.
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