Around the System–Starting Pitching

A first look at starting pitching through the system.  Take this for what it is, statistics for the first 5-6 weeks of the season with brief comments attached. Note: Stats are thru 5/9/10.

Lehigh Valley

Andrew Carpenter, 24, 5 starts; 3-2 with a 4.03 ERA. 22.1IP 24H 11BB 11K; 1.56 WHIP; .186 vs. LH; .385 vs. RH; .192 with RISP. Carpenter started very slow but has picked it up over his last several starts. 

Nate Bump, 33, 6 starts, 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA. 36IP 39 H 9BB 14K; 1.33 WHIP; .274 vs. LH; .288 vs. RH; .262 with RISP.  Has looked good and knows how to pitch.  Far from overpowering however.

Brian Mazone, 33, 6 starts; 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA. 32IP 37H 5BB 22K; 1.31 WHIP; .300 vs. LH; .284 vs. RH; .261 with RIS; 5 HR allowed. Has either looked very good, or very bad and the last two starts have been very bad.  Good control but very hittable, and when he gets hit, the hits come in buckets.

Ryan Vogelsong, 32, 6 starts, 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA. 31IP 28H 22BB 33K; 1.61 WHIP; .224 vs. LH, .259 vs. RH; .273 with RISP.  Has probably the best “stuff” on the Lehigh Valley staff, but there are times he doesnt know where it is going.  Significant command issues have hampered him, drawing many deep counts and walks.

Joe Savery, 24, 5 starts, 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA. 27IP 34H 12BB 16 K; 1.70 WHIP; .383 vs. LH, .282 vs. RH; .370 with bases empty, .211 with RISP. 4 homers allowed.  Savery is an enigma.  See specifically the splits with bases empty and RISP.  He simply runs into too much trouble to be effective in the long term.

Reading

Yohan Flande, 24, 6 starts, 1-3 with a 2.80 ERA. 35.1 IP 39H 8BB 12K; 1.33 WHIP; .269 vs. LH, .278 vs. RH; .237 with RISP; Has now made 19 starts at AA over two years going 5-7 with a 3.99 ERA.  Has been pitching well by knowing how to pitch with his excellent change up.  Continued success should bring a mid season AAA callup.

Phillipe Aumont, 21, 6 starts, 1-2 with a 6.08 ERA. 26.2IP 24H 22BB 19K; 1.72 WHIP; .250 vs. LH, .239 vs. RH; .310 with RISP.  A switch from reliever to starter and a change in his delivery may have delayed what is expected out of Aumont. His control issues have simply killed him.  The average with RISP is another concern. 

Michael Cisco, 22, Currently on the DL, 4 starts; 1-3 with a 3.68 ERA; 22IP 18H 6BB 10K; 1.09 WHIP; .182 vs. LH, .263 vs. RH; .278 with RISP.  Cisco knows how to pitch and has shown it, but his injury has caused him to miss his last two starts.  Stay tuned.

Vance Worley, 22, 6 starts, 1-2 with a 5.12 ERA; 31.2 IP 34H 16BB 27K; 1.57 WHIP, .310 vs. LH, .226 vs. RH; .273 with RISP. One of the up and coming names at the beginning of ’09, Worley has leveled off and then some during the latter part of last year and the beginning of this year.  His control must improve.  After getting shellacked his first two starts of the year, has settled in a bit.

Drew Naylor, 23, 5 starts, 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA; 29.2IP 29H 7BB 22K; 1.21 WHIP; .188 vs. LH, .362 vs. RH; .280 with RISP; 5 homers allowed.  Naylor has made the step up and has seen some success early on, going at least 5.2 in each start.  Good command has helped, home run balls have hurt.

Clearwater

Heitor Correa, 20, 5 games, 4-0 with a 3.67ERA; 27IP 31H 8BB 15K; .240 vs. LH, .333 vs. RH; .273 with RISP.  AFter jumping from Lakewood, Correa, still just 20 has been effective thus far.

Austin Hyatt, 23, 6 games, 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA; 34.2IP 26H 10BB 39K; 1.03 WHIP; .276 vs. LH, .152 vs. RH; .206 with RISP. After ripping through Williamsport last year, Hyatt has shown little effect with the jump to High A.  He is been fairly dominant, and another 5-10 starts similar to those he has made should land him in Reading.

Trevor May, 20, 5 games, 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA; 24IP 15H 12BB 39K; 1.12 WHIP; .196 vs. LH, .162 vs. RH; .118 with RISP.  May has been dominant early.  I would expect the Phils to be farily conservative however and monitor his IP with the high school product.

JC Ramirez, 21, 6 starts, 4-2 with a 4.30 ERA; 37.2IP 38H 10BB 32K; 1.27 WHIP; .295 vs. LH, .250 vs. RH; .368 with RISP. One horrific outing has greatly inflated his ERA.  Ramirez has looked good, but the avg. with RISP must come down.

Jesus Sanchez, 22, 6 games, 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA; 35IP 35H 11BB 25K; 1.31 WHIP; .301 vs. LH, .217 vs. RH; .256 with RISP.  The catcher turned pitcher is pitching just his second full year and there is certainly reason for hope.  The Phils think highly enough of him for a 40 man roster spot.

Lakewood

Brody Colvin, 19, 6 starts, 2-4 with a 7.31 ERA; 28.1 IP 32H 14BB 21K; 1.62 WHIP; .255 vs. LH, .308 vs. RH; .286 with RISP. Its been pretty ugly early for Colvin, but his last start where he threw 6.1 without allowing an earned run gives reason for hope, along with the fact that he is just 19 and has a ton of talent.

Jarred Cosart, 19, 6 starts, 3-1 with a 3.95 ERA; 27.1IP 23H 6BB 33K; 1.06 WHIP; .103 vs. LH, .288 vs. RH; .320 with RISP. The only real concerns with Cosart are his health and the numbers with RISP. He has been more dominant then his ERA indicates.

Nicholas Hernandez, 21, 6 starts, 2-1 with a 1.98 ERA; 41IP 34H 6BB 40K; 0.97 WHIP; .103 vs. LH, .261 vs. RH; .417 with RISP.  Has been consistently dominiant except with RISP.  Probably the best starter through the system in April.

Jon Pettibone, 19, 6 starts, 1-1 with a 4.45 ERA; 30.1IP 33H 10BB 24K; 1.41 WHIP; .191 vs. LH, .338 vs. RH; .182 with RISP.  He has been either really good or really bad in his starts.  Needs more consistency.

Matthew Way, 23, 6 games, 1-3 with a 5.51 ERA; 32.2 IP 39H 7BB 38K; 1.40 WHIP; .385 vs. LH, .288 vs. RH; .432 with RISP. Very rough start for Way, who went into this season with high expectations after a very good 2009.  His last start (7.2IP 1ER 10K) hopefully shows a turn around has begun.

 

17 thoughts on “Around the System–Starting Pitching

  1. Great post. Intrigued with Hernandez. Can’t believe Savery. I thought he had real chance to wake up this year and push for an emergency call up if needed Yeah that’s not happening

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  2. none of these guys really impress me just yet this year. I hope the Phils don’t need another starter. Maybe in a month these guys may step it up a bit 3 of them are journey men with 2 prospects – just not high ceiling prospects.

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  3. Bob – I disagree. May and Cosart are elite prospects with clear top of the rotation potential. Aumont and Ramirez are also high ceiling guys, although they haven’t turned the corner yet. Colvin, Shreve, Hyatt and Hernandez are all interesting and I still have my eye on Sanchez. There’s actually a nice core of talent here, although the best talent is a few years away from the majors.

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  4. Gregg, thanks for compiling this.

    Bob must be talking about AAA? If that’s the case, I agree that the Phils are in trouble if they need one of these guys to step in.

    It looks like 4 of the 5 starters at Lakewood have reverse L/R splits than what you’d expect. Weird, must be small sample sizes.

    One can see some guys at A+ and A- who might be ready for a promotion in a month or so, but it is difficult to see who at AA might get a bump to AAA. Flande is the only one pitching well, but his peripherals do not suggest his success will continue.

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  5. I view Flande as a fringe player, at best. He’s barely on my radar screen.

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  6. Stutes stands out by omission. How come? I think he is the best pitching prospect at Reading not named Aumont. I think they made him a reliever to provide more depth for the pen and get him to majors faster. He is even a possible callup this September if he locks in as a pitcher.

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  7. Diamond–
    Stutes will be covered in the reliever segment. He has not started a game this year.

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  8. Brad–
    I believe Sampson is in extended spring training, although not positive. I will double check on that.

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  9. Gregg – great post. thanks for pulling this stuff together. Pettibone is one of my personal favorites and it’s nice to see him be dominant at times. I would love consistency too, but I’ll take inconsistency over consistently bad (see Savery, Joe).

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  10. I still think we should keep an eye on Correa. He’s more than holding his own as a 20-year-old in High-A…not too bad so far.

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  11. Austin Hyatt is pitching himself into bona fide prospect status. When you strike out 14 batters and give up one hit, it says a lot, even if you are a little old for the league.

    When Hyatt and Overbeck make it to Reading we’re going to learn some things. Personally, I have a feeling that Hyatt’s going to pitch in the majors at some point and might even turn himself into a middle-of-the-rotation type of guy. Very pleasant surprise.

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  12. Here’s a reality check on Hyatt. I took a look at the 2004 FSL league and sorted pitchers by K/BB ratio. 24 year olds on that list include Justin Pope, Eric Hull, Steve Schmoll, Erik Lohse, Juan DeLeon, Ben Julianel, Matt Lindstrom, Tim McNab, Rocky Cherry, Beau Dannemiller, Charlie Isaacson, Lee Gwaltney, Francisco Butto and Thomas Atlee. Lindstrom is a special case, he threw 100 mph and missed two years for religious obligations. The rest are all journeymen, most of whom never played in the majors. 24 years old who even dominate the FSL and reach the majors are the EXCEPTION.

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  13. I think it’s time to put a bat in Savery’s hand. He wasn’t a good pitcher 2 years ago and he still isn’t.

    Very interesting guys in Lakewood and Clearwater, though. Hoping to get to a Lakewood game as soon as my kids are finished their seasons.

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  14. Sampson- I circled Sampson’s name at the time full-season rosters were completed rather than cross it off. That indicates to me, I did not see him on any cut list at BA or ?. Given his service time in pro baseball , would he still be eligible for a short season league when not on a re-hab assignment. If he is still eligible he might bob to the surface in Williamsport.

    Savery- Savery’s draft class becomes into the need for protection in the upcoming offseason. If the Phillies are not inclined to cut ties with a former 1st round draft choice this soon, and they will need to have some pitchers to save the arms of playoff eligible pitchers down the stretch, it would not hurt to recall Savery in September, and perhaps he could even pinch hit, etc. I believe assertions that it is an absolute impossibility that Savery could be recalled lack proper reflection.

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