71 thoughts on “Around the System–Outfield”

1. James, 21 in Lakewood gets a “Give him some time”.
   Gillies, 21 in Reading gets “Very disappointing thus far.”
   Gillies is making the jump to AA for the first time, as a 21 year old. Let’s show him the same patience we’re showing the others in Lakewood.

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2. Gillies has been disappointing because he’s shown a complete 180 of his advertised skills. Low batting average, the plate discipline has evaporated and he’s yet to steal a base. He gets evaluated differently than Jiwan James because they have different levels of pro experience as positional prospects.

   I’d say that Anthony Hewitt hasn’t really improved. He started off hot but his K/BB ratio is even worse than in years past and his hitting is ice cold right now.

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3. so when does Brown go up? June 1 and then assuming he rakes in AAA a September call up so he can get his feet wet and get used to what he will be seeing at some point in 2011

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4. Does a September call-up start Brown’s arbitration clock? If they plan to bring him up in 2011, how long do they need to wait to squeeze out an extra year – 6 weeks or so?

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5. I would be shocked to bee Brown in Philly this year. Any September call up starts his service time. Hopefully, he will be in Lehigh Valley by mid season.

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6. Gillies has been disappointing, but now he’s showing definite forward movement – let’s let that process continue before we write him off. IMO, for hitters, going from A+ to AA is almost as big of a jump as going from AA to the majors – let’s see where he is around the middle of July before we jump to too many conclusions.

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7. I think you will see mayberry being Werths replacement and then Brown taking over for Ibanez.

   D. Brown is the man!

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8. I don’t think Brown is the kind of super elite prospect where you really sweat his arbitration clock.

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9. I think Brown is an elite prospect and the arbitration clock is relevant. However, the team is in a state of development where, under the circumstances, it might be cheaper to get him on the field sooner rather later regardless of the effect it has on the arbitration meter. Here’s my question, if you call him up the last day of August for a post-season run, how long does he have to spend in the minors next year to avoid counting 2011 as arbitration eligible? Those rules elude me.

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10. Alan, you and I have different definitions of what a super elite prospect is, because Brown sure looks like it to me. The scouting reports and the stats agree – he’s pretty awesome. He may not be Heyward, but only one person can be the top propsect in all of baseball.

    If the Phils are trying to make the playoffs next year, they need to put the best team on the field, regardless of service time, so I don’t think the Phils will wait on Brown just due to delaying his arb clock. It will likely have more to do with their evaluation of his readiness. I think he gets a Sept call-up this year, assuming he continues his current performance in AAA (when he gets there).

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11. Well let me back up and explain. There are really two different concepts at work when it comes to delaying a prospect. First, there is “Super Two” arbitration. This is where a player reaches arbitration a year early because of his performance (I think in the top 1/6th at his position). The second is delaying free agency and that’s by offsetting his debut so you end up getting 6 1/2 years rather than just six.

    I don’t think Brown is going to be so good, so fast that he becomes a super two. But regardless of all that. With a team in contention like the Phillies, you put the lineup on the field that will help you win today. The ultimate purpose of delaying a player is that he’s going to help you down the road when you hopefully have a better team. So ultimately I agree with Boston Phan.

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12. It’s early and there are exceptions, but I have to say on balance these are somewhat disappointing numbers. The pattern if any may be that Phillies are pushing their kids more aggressively (something that many people on this forum have advocated). Santana especially, arguably Gillies and James maybe are in a little over their heads (Gillies in retorspect maybe could have used a half year in a “real” (i.e., not so ridiculously hitter friendly) high A environment).

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13. It’s not just arb clock, it’s FA as well. And of course super 2.

    The earliest he comes up is May 2011, IF he crushes AAA pitching AND if the Ibanez road block is removed (they won’t simply sit Ibanez to play a rookie, no matter how much that might be justified on the merits, they won’t substitute a leftie for Werth if he goes, and they won’t start the arb clock for a platoon player).

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14. I do not think it is a definite that Domonic Brown takes over for Werth.
    1. I do not think the Phillies will start his clock until June2011.
    2. I do not think they will want to have an everyday middle lineup of Utley, Howard, Ibanez and Brown.

    If Mayberry can somehow continue his improvement, and Gillies figures things out, Victorino could be traded. The question is, if the Phillies think Mayberry or Fransisco can play CF and not kill them.

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15. I wonder if Brown is the kind of prospect who could be the ultimate “elite” kind, the kind where you want him in the major leagues NOW because he can actually improve your team’s chances to win. Most prospects don’t help that much while they’re adjusting to the bigs, but Brown might be able to.

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16. Mike77, were you dropped on your head as a yute? First you say that Dom Brown won’t be up until next June. Then you say they will trade Victorino. So they’d lose Werth and Victorino and trot out an out of Ibanez, Mayberry, and Francisco and not bring Brown up. There is absolutely no chance of that happening unless Brown tanks.

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17. Rulz. You need a reading comprehension course.
    I never wrote anything about trotting out an outfield of Ibanez, Mayberry and Fransisco. I suggested that a trade of Victorino could be substituted for allowing Werth to walk. This option becomes available IF the Phillies believe Mayberry or Fransisco can be a suitable replacement for Victorino. The question for me being if either guy could play a decent defensive CF.

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18. would love to see the phils resign Werth and have an OF in 2012 of Brown/Victorino/Werth…with mayberry spelling werth against touch lefties….scary good potential

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19. i meant mayberry spelling Brown…opps

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20. We need to resign Werth because he is good and because he is a righty. Brown should be qued up to replace Ibanez.
    If we have to go over budget for a year thats fine just sign Werth !. Brown…Vic…Werth – that should be the outfield.

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21. Werth is pricing himself out of range every new day he plays this year. I don’t think there is ANYWAY we can sign him at this point.

    Minor League Content – I would love to See Brown start next year in the bigs, but I doubt it.

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22. If Brown is as good as I think he is, I definitely want him on my post-season roster – THIS YEAR. One of the reasons that we lost the WS (there were many reasons, actually), was that the Yankees could throw a few more hitters and athletes at us. We had the big guns, and then the drop off was extreme – this became especially evident with the DH. Imagine, for a minute that Brown could play LF and Ibanez would be the DH – does everyone understand, with the other players who are already in the line-up, how formidable this would make our team? One through nine we’d be a holy terror.

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23. As far as the Phillies rushing prospects based on their promotion of Santana to Lakewood – I don’t see how you can really pay attention to the Phils’ minor league system as a whole and reach that conclusion. One of the things that is most admirable about the team is that they do not rush prospects even when, at times, it might be in their best short-term interests to do so. That’s why Scott Mathieson, with his 95-98 MPH fastball and microscopic ERA is still at LHV. They don’t want to promote him until he’s mastered his secondary pitches. And this is just an example, but they are, on the whole, very cautious and careful and, if anything, they are generally too slow in giving prospects promotions. And, no, there’s been no organizational shift since Gillick left – to the contrary, more Gillick people have been brought in. They’re not rushing their prospects.

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24. I doubt Domonic Brown would have anymore impact on the playoff lineup than Ben Fransisco. No way do you have more confidence in a 22 year old, LH hitting, rookie call-up, facing Sabathia and Petit. Very disrespectful of Ben Fransisco. He has a career OPS+ over105 coming into the season.

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25. I look up ben francisco numbers he had over 400 abats in 2008 and 2009 average is around 260 with 15 homeruns and 54 rbi obs wasnt 105 or i read it wrong. I dont know if he is anything special. domonic brown by scouts account has a chance to be special. one drawback is he is lefthanded.

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26. My guess is that Brown is platooning in an outfield corner for the Phillies next season. Hopefully it’s left, where he replaces Ibanez whom the team will have traded for some salary relief.

    If that’s the case, whether he’s splitting time with Mayberry or Francisco (a question that itself might depend on what either of those two can bring back in trade), don’t you want him to have some big-league time under his belt? I think if he continues to perform close to what he’s done thus far in 2010, he comes up in September and even gets a few starts if the team is cruising toward the playoffs.

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27. I guess, when it comes to winning a World Series, I’m not all that concerned about Ben Francisco’s feelings.

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28. Dom Brown is definately playing well. What do you think for a call up? May…..Mid June or beginning of June or after the All Star break? What do you think?

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29. I’m starting to get the feeling that we’ll sign Werth at all costs. If that means trading Vic after this season to free up that money to give a hefty, backloaded contract…I think we’ll do it. This idea was mentioned on here, and I love it the more I look into it. As great as Vic is/can be, I don’t think he’s a guy we can’t do without. Gose is making steady (but unspectacular) strides in Clearwater, and I think Brown or Werth could be an acceptable CF in 2011 (not best case scenario defensively, but I think we could make it work).

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30. Victorino deserves more respect on this site; it is unlikely that any prospect currently in the system can give you the combination of fielding, speed, hitting and yes, power that he provides. Victorino has stepped up his power hitting and could easily hit 25 home runs this year; I wouldn ‘t expect that much power from Brown in his first or even second year. Victorino has a great arm and can play any outfield position. The last two years, he hit .293 and .292. In addition, he is signed for a reasonable salary ($5,000,000 this year. He also gets clutch hits; who can forget the grand slam against Sabbathia, or the one he just had against Santana. It is an axiom of baseball that you have to be strong up the middle and any way you slice it, moving Victorino reduces the Phillies strength up the middle and doesn’t save that much money.

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31. What are you, his agent?

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32. 25 home runs? Ahahaha.
    He won’t hit 25 on the season. 15, probably (and it’d be a career high). 20? maybe. But 25? I might as well say that he’ll only hit .250 on the year. You’re reading too much into a small sample size.

    And his salary goes up the next two years: he signed a 22 million contract extension, so he’ll average 8.5 million over the next two years.

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33. As a fan I would prefer to have Domonic Brown replace Ibanez, while keeping Werth and Victorino. Unfortunately I do not see that happening. There is no question that Domonic Brown’s potential talent level in RF, makes Werth the most likely to leave. When/if this happens, the impact on the lineup would be greater than the talent exchanged. I believe the ML lineup would suffer less in 2011, if Mayberry or Fransisco replaced Victorino, than if Brown replaced Werth.
    That is not meant as disrespect to Victorino. Victorino is many times better than Mayberry. However, I do not believe the lineup would suffer as much in the 5-6-7 with Werth, Ibanez and Mayberry, rather than Ibanez, Brown and Victorino. Not to mention it would give Brown more developement time if needed.

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34. Some good pitching results early.

    Colvin – 5 IP 1 hit no runs 3 BB and 3 K
    May – 3 IP – 2 hits, no runs, no walks and SIX ks

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35. Also, Anthony Hewitt going 3/3 with a 2B.

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36. 9 k’s through 5 for may

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37. Gillies 3-5 with a double and FINALLY a SB

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38. May is pitching well, what happen to knapp is he hurt, donald is hitting over 300 for cleveland triple a, like to see what former prospects are doing. I Got the feeling the other day that player personal forgot his name for phillies likes cosart a lot more than may, just by his talking. could be my imagination . Hope one of the two get here we need some young ace to develop. Man on a different note Halladay is something special never saw him pitch a lot, we havent had that since steve carlton a guy who can break losing streaks, a real ace.

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39. you guys who are jumping to conclusions after 1 month on prospects who jumped a level are ridiculous. i mean, there is so much counter evidence to support these guys taking a little while to adjust to a level. give the kids a chance. the season is long.

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40. Doesn’t the Brown thing depend on how the team is going.
    Happ comes back all is fine he stays in the minors. If the race slips away all bets are off.

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41. Dajafi,

    You know, there are reasons to think that Brown might be a full time outfielder for the Phillies next year, even if I don’t think it is particularly likely. And if you want to argue that he “should” be a platoon player next year, fine, you’re wrong, but go ahead, anyone is entitled to an opinion.

    But the chance that Brown actually will be a platoon player for the Phillies in 2011 (or any year, really, unless he regress as a prospect, and probably not even then) is zero. None, nil. It’s more likely that Jamie Moyer will win 30 games along with the Cy Young and MVP.

    Even apart from the arb and FA issues, almost no one platoons any more, because of expanded pitching staffs and thus fewer position players on the roster.

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42. Of course the people who think he is going to promoted to the majors THIS year are even more misguided.

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43. We have some nice arms coming up through the system… the cupboard is not that bare after all…Aumont, Hyatt, May, Pettibone, Cossart, etc…

    Having Brown replace Ibanez would be the best outcome if that allows us to keep Werth… to do that, we would probably have to eat part of Ibanez contract and Brown woud getthe majority of AB and split time with Mayberry possibly… to do that you would probably see Brown in Philly this fall some time (if he continous making strides). The cost of signing Werth, with money saved from trading Ibanez (for prospect & some salary relief) + Brown low salary.

    Trade Ibanez + Bring up Brown – Sign Werth= ???

    Then we keep Vic, which I agree, he is way more valuable than what he is given credit for… He plays an amazing CF… and is 5 tool athlete.

    That being said…what is the possibility of Werth playing CF? If I am not mistaken he did play CF last year when Vic was hurt with pretty good success…so maybe trading Vic would open a window to sign Werth as well and Brown could then take over RF with Ibanez in LF for a year…. After Brown what OF do you think would be ready for the Majors? Gillies/ Gose? If so, then maybe Werth would go back to RF, Brown moves to LF?

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44. i heard on mlb network the other day that they think that 2011’s jason heyward will be dominic brown

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45. Just to be clear, I’m not discounting the possibility he could be a break out star next year. He WON’T platoon though. And his chances of being a regular are diminished by factors beyond his control; the leftie tilt of the lineup and the presence of Ibanez.

    But if they manage to trade Ibanez, and if Brown keeps playing as well as he has, he should and will be a regular by May or June 2011.

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46. Earlier in this thread, someone said, ‘don’t you think Domonic Brown will get called up this season’ for major league experience. Unless about 3 or 4 outfielders get hurt, I think there is no chance that happens. Domonic Brown is playing well in AA, as everyone hoped. All that means is he has a chance to get promoted to AAA in June or July. Michael Taylor raked at Reading last year, then raked at LV. He was not promoted. If Brown was on the 40man, maybe, but it is not happening.

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47. I think Gose is trade bait, perhaps for a reliever.

    If you can dump Ibanez (not so easy with a trade restriction) and Moyer this winter you free up 20 million dollars for Werth, so it can be done. This is why you need good fill around the edges minor league guys, Schwimmer like guys who are cheap for their first three years.

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48. I have been coming to this site for a couple of years now and the constant habit of picking favorites and skewing their performance to meet your needs is pathetic. For example let’s look at 2 of the players above (this is not an attack on any player just making a point). I will compare Susdorf and Mitchell. According to the write up Susdorf has been productive and a clutch hitter. Mitchell has generally been unproductive and is on his way out. Susdorf has played pretty much every day batting in the 3 slot. Mitchell has at times played up to 2 maybe 3 games in a row and has exactly half of the number of at bats. Mitchell also normally bats in the 8 slot which reduces the number of RBI opportunities he will have. That being said double Mitchell’s stats and he would beat out or match Susdorf in every statistic except batting average. In my opinion sitting every other day could be the reason for the poor batting average. Mitchell has never performed well when sitting half the time. Last year is a perfect example where he got off to a slow start, started sitting half the games until the last 40 when he played every day. He batted over .300 those last 40 games.

    In short (too late), please stop cherry picking stats to support your favorites. We all have them but some of us count on this site for actual insight. If this is the wrong place to get it please let me know and I’ll move on.

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49. Just to clarify, a year of service for arbitration and free-agency purposes is 172 days of service during the regular season, including time on the DL and during suspensions. In any single season, a player cannot get credit for more than 172 days of service. Days of service in two or more seasons can be added together to get to 172.

    No matter how well Brown is performing in the minors, it should not be assumed that he can step right in and replace a player of the caliber of Werth. Since the Phils are trying to win championships, I think it’s a bad idea to let Werth walk. Brown may not even have Ibanez’ bat, but Ibanez is the guy Brown should be groomed to replace.

    I am in favor of eventually trading Vic to keep the payroll at a reasonable level. Before I make the trade, I want to be confident that Gillies/Gose will be a solid replacement(s) for Vic. I don’t have that confidence yet. As noted here, CF is a key position that we want to fill with a player as good as or better than Vic.

    From what I have read, Gillies/Gose can replace Vic defensively and maybe on the bases right now. Their hitting is in question. Once either one or both of these two show enough bat to be successful with the big club, I would trade Vic. That could be this offseason or next or even after 2012.

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50. Comparing others to Vic and Werth is difficult. Both were very late bloomers and were unproductive until 25 and 26. In fact Vic was offered back for 25k and denied. Does Gose shave yet?

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51. I wish people here who opine on the Phillies’ salary situation would take the simple step of spending 2 minutes on the very user friendly http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ site. You will learn that, because of commitments to other players, the Phillies can NOT afford Werth, unless they significantly increase their payroll, even if they manage to trade Ibanez, and even taking the Moyer contract situation into consideration. Not to mention the fact that trading Ibanez would probably require the Phils to pay a large chunk of his salary.

    I wish it were otherwise, but it’s not.

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52. Gose has been a monster in May.

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53. In order to keep Werth, Rollins and Hamels while maintaining a reasonable payroll level, I would shed the contracts of Ibanez, Lidge, Romero, Victorino, and Polanco as soon as we have suitable cheap replacements, preferably from the farm. Candidates include Brown, Gillies/Gose, Aumont, Bastardo, Mathieson, Schwimer and Stutes. May, Hyatt, Cosart, and Ramirez are candidates for spots in the rotation as early as 2012. Not all of the prospects will pan out, but we have to get some help from the farm to keep the payroll down.

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54. From looking at the payroll website for 2011, It seems like keeping Werth would be possible. It would take 2 big moves though.
    1) Trade Ibanez and a good prospect for pretty much nothing. The hope here is someone will take our prospect and not ask for us to pay any of Ibanezs contract. Obviously this would take some kind of miracle or good prospect.
    2) We trade Blanton for nothing in a salary dump. For this to happen we would open a hole in the rotation, but thats where the farm comes in to fill that gap.
    keeping Werth could work if we pulled off both of those moves so lets hope Phils can get creative.

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55. There is no pitcher in the Phillies’ minors capable of coming close to Joe Blanton in 2011. So #2 is out, James.
    Brown and Bastardo can replace Ibanez and Romero eventually, but I doubt anyone else would be ready until at least 2012. Just hope they win the WS, have a change of heart and increase slary for ONE season to keep Werth. After that, maybe they will take a page out of the Yankees book, and start saving money in the bull-pen.

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56. Rusty, you’re complaining about those cherry picking stats and then you cite Mitchell’s stats over the last 40 games of 2009? Mitchell has over 1,300 career plate appearances, his career batting average is .229 and his OPS is .667. Susdorf’s career batting average (641 plate appearances) is .303 and his OPS is .832. To take issue with their assessments strikes me as odd.

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57. Rusty, do you think the fact that Mitchell isn’t playing everyday in A-ball might give some indication of his standing in the organization? Fair or not, a guy not getting everyday playing time is probably not considered a prospect by the organization.

    Yes, everyone has their favorite players (as you also apparently do) which is fine but if you’re truely looking for insight, I would suggest that you approach all of the write-ups here and elsewhere with the understanding they come through the eyes of people with differing opinions and understand that those opinions do offer insight as to how other people see particular players.

    If you don’t agree, then make your case…

    As for me, I don’t see either Susdorf or Mitchell as much of a prospect and doubt that either player will get past AA-Ball.

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58. Rusty,
    Alan pretty much made my point. When placing comments next to players, their overall body of work in the Minors is considered. Sometimes I may be right, sometimes I may be wrong, but Im not ignorant enough to take one month of statistics and base an opinion on a players career. I hope Derrick Mitchell turns it around. History says he wont.

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59. Trade Ibanez? Who’s going to take an aging player making $10M+? There is no way that is happening unless Philly pays a huge chunk of his salary, and if they do, what would be the point? Ibanez is slumping a little but he’s not even close to that poor year Pat Burrell gave us. It’s asking a lot of Dom Brown to step into LF in 2011 and rip MLB pitching.

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60. Why trade Blanton? Moyer and his 8.5 mill will be gone next year. So only move #1 is necessary.

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61. Would Ibanez, Stutes, and $3-4M get Raul of the books (at least $6-7M of his contract)? Is there a team out there that needs OFers and would find that attractive? (Assuming Raul picks it up and has a decent year.)

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62. I don’t think that deal would move Ibanez. You figure he’s due $11 million next year and half more this year, so about $16.5 million. Stutes is no more than a middle reliever.

    As a Phillie fan, I wouldn’t want to trade for Ibanez and pay him over $12 million.

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63. Any discussion of trading Ibanez to make room for Domonic Brown would have to start with knowing who are the teams included in Ibanez’s ‘no trade’ clause. Ibanez plus a lesser player could be traded for a guy like Magglio Ordonez, if the idea is saving money on next year. That is the kind of trade the Phillies would have to look at if they feel Domonic Brown will be reaady next year and they want to keep Werth.

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64. Magglio Ordonez has a full no-trade clause and a vesting option for next season, which he will probably easily reach in Detroit so why should he approve a trade elsewhere? And since he demanded a full no-trade clause from Detroit that is probably where he wants to be. And he makes about 18 million a year which is more than Ibanez will, so if he comes here and it vests there will be even less for signing Werth.

    The expiration of Moyers contract has already been figured into the payroll projections for next year, it is still at their currently believed budgetary limit of 140 million, so either they have to dump more salary or increase payroll, anyhow.

    There is no reason to trade Ibanez, particularly not in the middle of this season. He will begin to hit soon, and carry it through to the end of the season. Substituting Francisco or Mayberry over that haul would prove to be a long term downgrade to the batting order, and there is no minor league alternative for this season. Next season will be the last of his contract and if he does not perform others can work in. No there is no guarantee if they would rush Brown in early in the season, he cuts it, around the middle of the season, should be about right, but they are not likely to go before that. Trading Ibanez in this upcoming offseason, especially if a major or even minor portion is picked up, Or even if the entire amount is picked up at about 10 million would do nothing towards the retention of Werth, since the payroll stands at the believed limit of $140 million. Even removing Ibanez salary makes it $130 million, and $10 million will not get worth . If they temporarily raise the limit to just under $160 million and resign Werth, they could start chipping away with minor contract adjustments to get it down to the $150 million range. The scheme to trade Ibanez does nothing, and , like I said, he will begin to hit soon, and there is an advantage to the veteran line-up they use, and they all have to be accounted for by the opposition.

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65. The Phillies are printing money at the Bank. The place is going to be sold out all season. People are spending money, as the lines are as long as ever. Parking increased, as did the ticket prices. I would imagine tickets go up for 2011 as well. The Phillies will put that into a payroll increase for next year. I think the contract with Comcast is also up for renewal after this year. That could be the way to get the revenue to resign Werth and extend Rollins.

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66. If it was up to me i would like to see the phils after this season trade blanton for fringe guy (9 mil), ibanez and 4.5 mil if he is able to pick it up a little ie .270-25-90, let Baez (2.75?) contreras(1.5?), Moyer (8.5?) romero (4.5?) become FA. that’s about 32 mil. I would sign Lee @ about 17 mil, replace ibanez w/ mayberry and francisco and bring up brown in june. This would be a step backward in left field but probably for only one year. I would pick up one stud reliever for about 4 mil, and use combination of mathieson zagurski, escalona schwimer, rosenberg, stutes, bastardo, chapman, whoever wins the job for final 2 spots-probably bastardo, mathieson. I think w/ the stud and combo we would be better in the pen a little weaker in the of and the starters would be halladay-lee-hamels-happ-Kendrick? Obviously stronger moving forward. That would be 21 of the 32 mil and the other 11 mil of the probable 15 mil in increases. So our payroll would be up about 4 mil even w/ increases and a better team.

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67. Just to clarify because it appears my information was not fully understood (probably due to poor explanation). I was not trying to say who is or is not a prospect. I was not trying to compare careers because this update on outfielders was not talking about players careers, it was talking about this season so far.
    The only reason I used the end of last season for Mitchell was to support my theory about playing time and the affects on batting average.
    I compared Susdorf and Mitchell because they are the about the same age, both played high A last year, and are on a team that I generally keep track of.
    I am fully understanding and OK with the people posting comments to have favorites. They should. My only and I do mean only point is that I wish the administrators of the site would demonstrate it less.

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68. Marfis taking a few games off may help his production .

    Moyer lives. Good for him.

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69. definatly being to hard on gillies and way to easy on gose. both are having a tough time so far.

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70. Baez is signed for 2 years and Contreras is one of the biggest bargains in the majors – having these guys allows you to free up other room for developing players such as Mathieson and Bastardo. It’s not about saving money with each and every player – it’s about getting fair value and generally keeping costs in line.

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71. Comcast contract is a huge hidden revenue source. It would not surprise me at all if the increase in that contract alone was worth $ 20 million a year or more. My sense is that they are not going to go hog wild, but they will re-sign Werth and Hamels (hello, people, now is the time to sign him, when his value is relatively low, not when he’s winning Cy Young awards). But enough about this – it has nothing to do with the minor leagues.

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