The next in the line of topics to discuss as the season approaches, I’m going to single out a few prospects that I feel are entering their make or break year. This is subjective, of course, some guys are just late bloomers, though many never bloom at all. I’m only going to highlight guys who need to be placed on the 40 man roster after 2010. Guys who will have at least one season left aren’t in danger so I’m not going to worry about those guys. College guys (19 and older) drafted in 2007 and prep players (18 and under) from the 2006 draft/international signing period are the guys we’re focusing on here. Check below for my list…
Joe Savery, LHP – We start right at the top. Since going #19 overall, Savery has failed to impress, posting mediocre peripherals along the way, and really kind of looking like a lost pick at this point. He’s struggled in the upper minors, and at this point its tough to figure out where he goes from here. He doesn’t miss enough bats (6.6 K/9 career) and walks too many (4.1 BB/9 career), but if he has one quality trait, its that he’s remained healthy the last two years, logging 150 IP in both 2008 and 2009. It seems reasonable that the Phillies will protect him, they did invest a lot in him, but he really needs to step it up in 2010, his 4th pro season. He got a 39 inning sample of AAA last season, and will likely spend the whole year there this season. More strikeouts, more groundballs, fewer walks, and great numbers against lefthanders are what we need to see.
Chance Chapman, RHP – Chapman has been a victim of being left in the low minors despite his very advanced age, but he made it to Reading in 2009, logging 52 innings with fairly strong peripherals. At this point, he’s maxed out projection wise, and we know what he is; a command/control righty (will be known as a “Condrey” from now on) who will have to live on the corners and at the bottom of the zone. Chapman hasn’t posted severe platoon splits in his career, so I think he could be more than just a specialist reliever, but he turned 26 a few days ago, and the time is now. With a great season at AA/AAA, he could give the Phillies a reason to protect him and add him, with an eye toward him pitching in the big league bullpen in 2011. If he’s just average, I think he falls off the radar almost all together.
D’Arby Myers, OF – Myers was a favorite of mine after his exciting debut in 2006, but it was all downhill after that. After putting up nice numbers in the GCL in 2006, 4 years later he is still stuck at Lakewood. His .690 OPS in 2009 was an “improvement”, but he’s a long way away from being a finished product, or even a legitimate quality prospect. Having just turned 21 in December, and still being very raw, he still has a chance to develop into something of a prospect, but he has to pick up the pace quickly. Though a modest season the FSL might not get him picked in the Rule 5 draft, it could cause the Phillies to give up on him, especially with the sheer number of similar outfielders behind him who need playing time.
Relatively Safe After 2010:
Justin De Fratus, RHP: He should be a no brainer, as he’s produced at every level. Because he was 19 when he signed, I believe he’ll have to be protected after 2010. If he’s fast tracked as a reliever, he should be in AA and have given the Phillies a good idea of what he can offer, and that should get him a 40 man spot.
Completely Safe After 2010:
Domonic Brown, OF – Short of him committing some sort of heinous crime against humanity, the Phillies will be adding Brown to the 40 man after 2010.
Likely Non-Factors After 2010:
Matt Rizzotti, 1B – Decent numbers the last two seasons, but way too old for his league both times, modest secondary skills for a position that requires a ton of secondary skills.
Tyson Brummett, RHP – He’s a poor man’s Drew Carpenter, and he’s already 25.
Jacob Diekman, LHP – His numbers after he converted to side arm were good at Lakewood, but he’s now 23 and hasn’t gotten past A ball, so he’d need to have an absolutely dominant year in 2010 and move up to at least Reading before the end of the season. Even though, its not likely that the team will use a 40 man spot on a LOOGY with no MLB experience.
Keep this name in mind; Eric Campbell, 3B. Back in December, Baseball America listed an “Eric Campbell, 3B” as signing with the Phillies. There is one other Eric Campbell in the minors, but he’s a Mets farmhand drafted in 2008, so I don’t think that’s the guy. The Eric Campbell I’m talking about was once considered one of the Braves best prospects, but he’s really had problems over the last 3 seasons. He had an excellent year in 2006, putting up solid numbers in Low A, but then struggled in 2007, including dealing with injuries, and he was reprimanded for some type of attitude issue multiple times, with his work ethic being drawn into question while rehabbing from an injury. Campbell dropped out of the Braves top 30 heading into 2009, and did little to prove that was a mistake, posting a .241/.308/.331 line in AA at age 23/24. His physical tools were always appealing to scouts, he has a solid frame with good hands defensively, and has shown the ability to both hit for power and draw walks in the past. Of course now he’s 24, and his original organization has given up on him. For some guys, it takes getting released to serve as a wake up call. If Campbell wants to make a career out of baseball, this is his fresh chance, with one of the best teams in baseball, a team that does not have a stud 3B prospect in its system. Though he did turn 24 in August, he still has time, and wouldn’t be the first late bloomer. He only has to look at current Phillie Jayson Werth as a shining example that you don’t have to be an established big league stud by age 25 to have a successful big league career. He could very well suck in 2010, and he probably will, but at the same time, he’s a guy with legitimate tools/talent at a position of great need, and he’d be a hell of a story if he got his head on straight and had a monster season to re-ignite his baseball career.
Next week we’ll dig into trying to figure out which prospects will start where in 2010.
Phuture Phillies 
The Eric Campbell info is certainly an interesting little tidbit, I’d add Edgar Garcia to this list as well, he needs to get his career back on track an headed in the right direction. His was the first name I thought of.
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I like the Werth thing. At this point lets thank the Dodgers for two allstars by giving them the “OMAR” award.
Carpenter should be considered. I believe he can do it. Gose in the sense that he needs to jump into the star status.
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I’ve been thinking about which prospects will be the biggest upside surprise and which might be the biggest disappointment. Savery is on the top of my list as a big upside surprise. James gives one of the major reasons. His back is up against the wall. Cream rises to the top. It’s time to show it.
The guy who might be the biggest diappointment could be because of his 5 star rating. Dom Brown has a bulls-eye on him. If he doesn’t have a Taylor-type year, people will cut him down. High expectations can make achievement impossible. I’m not worried but I expect some people to start bad-talking him.
Also the guys who came over in the Lee deal will have monstrous expectations. We’re already starting to hear it on Aumont. Gillies and Ramirez will also be under the microscope.
I hope everyone just let’s these young guys grow.
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This poll should be: ‘Is this a make or break year for Savery?’ The answer to that is yes. The other guys listed are already past break.
Anyway, I vote Edgar Garcia. He is still a prospect, and may have more potential than Savery. If he does not pass the AA test this year then he will not need a visa next year.
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I also pick Garcia.
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I’m a little surprised at how everyone has written Savery off. I understand the peripheral statistics and all, but, as I’ve explained before, I think this guy has a lot going for him, including, perhaps, continued recovery from injury and a high level of athleticism. If he can get to the point where he’s touching 90 on the gun, he could still become a decent pitcher. Look, I saw Gavin Floyd in SwB when he could only hit 90 or so on the gun and he completely stunk – horrible. Savery is stronger, is a better athlete, appears to be aggressive and may still be gaining velocity. He also was rushed through the system pretty quickly. I’m not saying he’s likely to be great, only that he has a chance to turn into something and it seems way to early to write him off.
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And, of course, he’s a lefty. Never hurts.
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Definitely a make or break year for Mattair. A repeat at Lakewood in 2009 and his number went down for the most part. If it doesn’t come together in 2010, then I’m guessing he’s let go.
– Jeff
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Another guy in the make or break category is Heitor Correa. This will be his 5th season with the Phillies and he should play it at age 20 in the FSL. I assume the missed year counts and he will be rule 5 eligible after this year. He was decent last year at Lakewood if you consider he was only 19. This is balanced however by scouting reports that were inferior to the ones when he was 17. It looks like he put on some weight during his year off and his fastball was a couple of miles slower (sitting at 90 rather than 92).
I’ve never known what to make of a kid with supposedly decent stuff but zero experience coming from Brazil. Then compound that with his missed year and most people do not consider him one of our top 30 prospects. But then you still look at his age and he did pitch decently at Lakewood. He needs a step forward this year to be considered a good prospect again.
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Agreed that Mattair is in make it or break it territory.
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Jeff,
Great call on Mattair. I just went back to the BA Draft Database and read the blurb on him. He’s another of the “great athlete/limited experience” guys. Only thing with him, to the positive, is he’s still young as he was a high school guy when drafted.
Now Savery….
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Mattair’s make or break season was last year. He has already shown he is not a prospect.
Correa is young enough and shown enough, that he is not in make or break territory yet.
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Will another pitcher from Rice ever be drafted? Should the coach be charged with assault for ruining so many arms?
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Don’t think Savery is in a make/break season simply because the Phillies will protect him based on his draft status regardless of performance.
If he has a so-so year in 2010 he is more likely to get traded for some role player vs being left unprotected.
Agree that Myers needs to show something significant in 2010. The team has too many OFs who need playing time for him to continue getting regular time in the OF after 2010 if he posts another sub-.700 OPS season.
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mike77 –
Sadly, I tend to agree with you. Mattair really should have shown us something when he repeated at Lakewood last year, and I don’t think his name popped up at all in our top 30 voting. This year, if he continues to perform at he has previously, I’d be surprised if he makes it through the year. And I’ve been one of his biggest boosters too.
– Jeff
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The team has no reason to get rid of Mattair. He doesn’t need protected until after 2011 and he playes a position that isn’t exactly brimming with prospects in the organization.
He will be given every change to prove that he won’t make it before he is released.
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How can Savery be make or break, when he just touched AAA last year for the first time? Half you guys bounce from one player to the next, claiming the next guys is the ‘prospect’. It’s an important year for Savery, just like many other guys. Imagine how many times Victorino was cast aside as a non-prospect? Bet he wasn’t on many Top 30 lists, when he was Rule-5’d to the Phillies. Some players do develop late. Players learn and develop at differently.
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Patrick Overholt has been in AA/AAA for two years now. I realize there aren’t high expectations for him at this point but I have to think he needs to show something this year in order to stick around.
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I agree that Mattair needs a bounceback year but to say he’s definitely not a prospect anymore at his age is silly. If you know what he looks like, he’s a chisled guy who looks like a player, you’d realize he only needs one good year to get it going. He’s clearly not shown enough yet hitting wise but his glove is very good and his arm is tremendous. He’s definitely been overwhelmed by the pitching to date but who knows, it can still happen for him. As for one of my picks for top 30 that no one agreed with, Naylor got himself off to a good start last night. We’ll see….
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By the way, Myers should get to start in Clearwater this year and get a steady diet of at bats. He’ll get his chance to show hat he can do. I don’t agree with the comments about Diekman. If he found something in the second half of the year that he can repeat this season, he’ll be protected because he could be a fast riser as a LOOGY. Chapman defintiely has a chance to be a Condrey and cheap Condreys are very valuable on a high payroll team.
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I guess it depends how you define make or break. If it’s guys who are likely out of here without a good season, then certainly D’Arby Myers, Overholt, Kennelly, possibly Mayberry, Edgar Garcia. If you define it as guys who will no longer be thought of as prospects, I’d say last year for Mattair (although it’s a stretch), Correa, Hewitt. Some of the guys who haven’t been with us long, like Hyatt, will likely sort into prospect or not if advanced this season.
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The problem is I don’t want to waste roster spots on a lot of guys that could be possible late bloomers, it takes away opportunities from other guys lower in the system and may turn a blind eye during the draft if the org is still holding out hope for certain position players. Its nice when teams hit on guys like werth and victorino but for every werth there are a million other guys with a boat load of talent that had potential to be late bloomers that never make it. I don’t want my team to be holding out hope on too many players. mattair, savery, myers, chapman, have gotten their chances already. I would give mattair and savery another yr or 2 but some of these other guys, sorry kid time to enter the real world with the rest of us working stiffs. its time for the dugan’s, james, hewitts to make their marks. Can’t wait for opening day.
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Sibs–
Who in the system is being blocked?
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Sibs,
Also don’t get why you say it’s time for dugan, who has all of 1/2 a season and James, with 1 season as a hitter, to make their marks, but Mattair and Savery get another year or two. Mattair has more time in the organization than any of the three hitters your mentioned.
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FYI – Franzke pronouced Gillies such that it rhymes with Phillies, not “Gilliss” as I’ve heard it before.
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Now he said “Jillies”
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Is it me, or does this just seem like the longest offseason ever (which is odd, because, for Phils fans, the season ended later than ever)? Perhaps it’s the ridiculously bad weather.
P.S. Did try to get through to WIP this morning to protect my man, Aumont, but couldn’t get through and had to start work.
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Have to think if an underperforming guy is still in the system then the Phillies consider them a prospect to some degree vs. an organizational filler.
Guys like Mattiar, Hewitt, Collier, etc. with obvious abilities but underwhelming results will be considered viable prospects for quite some time.
Thats why guys like Werth and Victorino continued to get opportunites, because they had noticeable talent.
Its guys like Chapman and Brummett who need to show results quickly because their skill set is more limited..
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Garcia and Correa are good choices too, I kind of blanked on international guys so thanks for adding those.
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Yeah, but . . . if you look at Victorino and Werth’s minor league numbers, the objectively showed promise. Victorino’s problem was that he was promoted too quickly and then forgotten. Werth was doing great, made it the the majors and then he hurt his wrist. Mattair has shown nothing thus far and has almost regressed. Hewitt and Collier are young and will get more chances. According to those in the know, Hewitt actually did a lot of improving last year, although it wasn’t always evident.
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It’s really nice to see the Phillies with a 40 man roster that you have trouble finding someone that you would be ready to DFA- big change from a few years ago. It forces us to think much harder about adding a marginal guy- who would you be willing to lose by DFAing to make room?
However, I find it frustrating when the Phillies release a young player that hasn’t quite lived up to expectations and then fill the roster at AAA or AA with flotsom and jetsom in their 30’s. I realize that it is nice to have winning minor league teams for a number of reasons, but I would rather keep younger players and give them another chance to break out, as long as they are not blocking a 40-man slot needed for someone more promising.
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“However, I find it frustrating when the Phillies release a young player that hasn’t quite lived up to expectations and then fill the roster at AAA or AA with flotsom and jetsom in their 30’s. I realize that it is nice to have winning minor league teams for a number of reasons, but I would rather keep younger players and give them another chance to break out, as long as they are not blocking a 40-man slot needed for someone more promising.”
I’m the opposite. At a certain point, I’d rather watch career baseball men play at a high level than watch yet another project flounder around the baseball diamond. I still regularly attend games in Scranton, and watching Eric Duncan pretend to be a prospect for three seasons was incredibly frustrating. Give me Jim Rushford anyday.
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By the way, MLB Network and Comcast of course are airing a Phillies’ Spring Training game tonight. Check out alumnis Greg Golson and Zach Segovia for the Yankees.
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“I agree Mattair needs a bounce back year… but to say he is not a prospect anymore, at this age, is silly”
Mattair can not have a bounce back year because he has never had a good year. How many “prospects” repeat Low A ball 3 times? He shows no power and yet strikes out at a Hewittesque pace. His stats from last year would be even worse than the previous season if he had not spent the 1st month of last season taking walks at ridiculous pace. He showed that was a fluke by not continuing anywhere near his early pace. Prospects show improvement, no matter the age. Especially at the low levels.
Mattair can not hit.
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Alan,
That’s an interesting take (and to be clear – I’m not being sarcastic). Since I don’t live all that close to any of the affiliates (I do make a few Reading games a year) I tend to think the opposite. While it’s nice to see the Tracy’s of the world have good years, and nice to see them get a shot at the majors even for a few at bats, I most definitely prefer the younger “upside” guys to the “know they are average, and the best they will be is average” kind of folks.
But like I said, I’m not the one sitting there game after game paying some bucks to watch the Greg Golson’s of the world flail away at pitches. Being an infrequent game attender, I wake up in the morning and check the box scores for the “prospects”, not the Andy Tracy’s, Jim Rushford’s, etc.
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SteveB, here’s the upside. The veterans in AAA provide a better training ground for the prospects in the league. A young pitcher learns from pitching against an experienced hitter, and young hitters learn from facing experienced hurlers. It’s a net benefit for baseball.
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Eric Campbell – first I’ve heard of him. Any idea where he’ll be starting? Reading or Lehigh Valley?
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allentown
i was making a generalization in the first part of my post. in regards to mattair someone made a good point earlier about there not being much in the pipeline at the 3b position so why not. savery…….he’s left handed…..thats all i got for him. i would rather have a dugan type player instead of myers who has been stuck in a ball for 3 yrs& i know myers is not gonna see much playing time. And no one in the system is being blocked with regards to the position players, my point was not to waste too much time waiting for a prospect to turn his potential into a reality, b/c the odds are against that guy turning into another werth.
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Why are guys comparing these slow developing minor leaguers to Jason Werth?
Jason Werth was not a late developing player. D’arby Myers and Travis Mattair are nothing like Jason Werth. Myers and Mattair have not produced at any level. Werth produced every year he was in the minors. Werth was a top 100 player in the minors from ’99 to ’03. Werth is a late blooming Major League All-star because he got hurt while in the Major Leagues. He did not struggle in the minors.
One person uses a bad analogy, and then others start repeating it, as if it is fact.
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Alan- I fully understand your sentiments as a paying customer to minor league games. However, the main role of the minor leagues is to provide a supply of ballplayers to the Major League team. I would rather have a roster full of youngsters at AAA- even if they are not all major prospects and let them learn facing the older hangers-on that will fill the rosters of the poorer minor league systems in baseball. I realize that grooming young players in losing atmosphere is also not good, but rare is the system that has a passable younger player to plug into every roster spot- so use your older players where you have nothing at all.
For example (and to throw in some controversy) I would rather have Brad Harmon in the infield at Lehigh Valley than some 35 year old. I know that he has stalled, and I certainly wouldn’t waste a 40 man spot on him, but I would keep running him out until either 1) he breaks through, 2) I have a better young player to use in his place or 3) he is an older guy.
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a few of you guys have mentioned kelly dugan. i saw kelly play a few times last year, he has a lot of work to do to be even considered a top prospect. give him time at the lower levels. he seems like a great kid that is willing to work hard and i’m pulling for him but he needs time
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I once talked to Eric Campbell and his family at a complex game in Clearwater between the Phillies and Braves. I remember telling them how good an organization the Phillies were. I wonder if he remembered that conversation?
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I can’t fault the Phillies for not wanting to give Harman more time to develop. He had a good year with the bat in low A, then faded in high A, then almost repeated his good year when given a repeat season at high A. Since then he put up a poor season at Reading and when given an opportunity to repeat at Reading, put up even worse numbers. That was last year, and his OPS fell to .581, which is horrible. The only thing he brings to the table is a very good glove. He had zero stolen bases, walked only a little over 8% of the time and struck out in over a quarter of his AB. Having spent two seasons in both high A and AA, I think the Phillies have been more than patient with him, but his bat just hasn’t developed.
I don’t see a big problem with a lot of older players in AAA. They are there to provide temporary injury replacements at the major league level. Where the Phillies have had good, or even mediocre prospects ready to advance to AAA, they have advanced. Taylor moved in midseason. I haven’t seen a single player at Reading in the past several seasons that I can point to as a guy who should have been at AAA, but was blocked by a minor league veteran.
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Don’t think there is ever a situation where a prospect gets blocked by a veteran minor leaguer. The veteran is there to fill holes in the roster and if/when they become a roadblock, there are either moved up/down a level or released.
Organizations don’t put minor-league wins ahead of prospect development and everyone involved, including the players themselves, understand that.
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who would you prefer i use anonymous? thanks pal
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I think its good to have a little veteran mix up in AAA.
Harman in no way, shape, or form should’ve been even considered for AAA considering he was near the Mendoza line two years in a row at Reading. You can only give a guy so much time before its time to let him go.
A guy I would love to see do well this year for the Pigs would be Neil Sellers. He’s pretty much maxed himself out in AA, and hopefully gets a good shot at starting at 3rd this year. I’m kinda shocked he didn’t get a callup last year really as Tiffee was a big disappointment. I just hope his tenure is better than Slayden’s was, as I wanted him to do real well last year in AAA, but it just didn’t work out.
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Speaking of breaking . . . putting unready Aumont and J.C. Ramirez into MLB spring training games while the media sharks embittered by the Lee deal are circling has to go down among the most stupid decisions of the spring. If you want these guys to get major league instruction, send your coaches over to the minor league camp for pointers. These guys should be kept as far from the spotlight this spring as possible.
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Ramirez is on the 40 man roster. Aumont reached AA last season. I’m wary about the pressure put on these players in light of the trade, but I don’t think you can coddle them either.
Ehren Wasserman struck out four batters in his two innings of work. He’s not techically rookie eligible though he has less than 50 big league innings under his belt. I think he is a real sleeper down the road this season as a reliever.
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