Phillies Top 10 at BA

Just remembered that the list will be posted tomorrow. The list itself will be free content, but the scouting reports will not be, so please don’t post them here. I was going to roll out the SONAR scores for pitchers today, but I haven’t had a chance to finish writing it up, and we’ll have other stuff to discuss with the Top 10 list, so I’ll hold off till Tuesday or Wednesday. I have no inside knowledge of the list, obviously, but I’m going to take a guess, based on BA’s tendencies.

01. Kyle Drabek
02. Domonic Brown
03. Michael Taylor
04. Anthony Gose
05. Travis D’Arnaud
06. Trevor May
07. Sebastian Valle
08. Yohan Flande
09. Kyrell Hudson
10. Brody Colvin

Im pretty sure the top 10 of my top 30 won’t look like this, but this is my expectation, or something close. We’ll see.

Check below the fold for the actual list

1. Domonic Brown, of
2. Kyle Drabek, rhp
3. Michael Taylor, of
4. Travis D’Arnaud, c
5. Trevor May, rhp
6. Anthony Gose, of
7. Sebastian Valle, c
8. Jarred Cosart, rhp
9. Antonio Bastardo, lhp
10. Domingo Santana, of

DO NOT POST THE SCOUTING REPORTS HERE.

Also, if you post anything about trades or the hot stove in this post, I’m flagging your comment as spam and that’s probably the last comment you’ll have shown up here.

62 thoughts on “Phillies Top 10 at BA

  1. Gose at #4 and Hudson at #9 — tools, tools, and more tools!

    That looks about right to me. I wonder if they might include someone like Santana, Cosart, or Singleton in place of Hudson and/or Flande, but it’s tough to gauge from the League Top 20 lists because different people do them.

  2. I expect it to be similar to this

    1. Domonic Brown OF
    2. Kyle Drabek SP
    3. Michael Taylor OF
    4. Trevor May SP
    5. Travis D’Arnaud C
    6. Anthony Gose OF
    7. Sebastian Valle C
    8. Jared Cosart P
    9. Freddy Galvis (I have no clue to be honest, anyone of Colvin, Flande, Singleton, Bastardo, Stutes, Galvis, Castro, etc. wouldn’t surprise me. But I figure the fact Freddy made the FSL top 20 may carry some weight for them.
    10. Domingo Santana OF

  3. Santana is indeed #10. I know Brown, Drabek, Taylor, D’Arnaud and Valle should easily crack the top ten. That leaves four names and my best guesses are Trevor May, Jarred Cosart, Anthony Gose and Jonathan Singleton.

  4. I’m a little surprised to see cosart, he has great stuff but I would think bastardo is still eligible. With the move of hewitt i wonder how it will affect his top 30 status.

  5. ba,s top ten. drabek, brown, taylor, galvis, gose, d,arnaud, may, valle, hewitt, castro,. not in order. buy the magazine. their genius,s.

  6. Bastardo is indeed still eligible. Hewitt’s status I think will remain unchanged by his positional move. BA often projects prospects to change positions as they advance and I think they always felt Hewitt would become an outfielder.

    Remember PP’s (and other’s) lists are just educated guesses at the actual list, which appears later this afternoon. I suspect all of the top ten will have appeared in BA’s league prospect lists.

  7. After watching Flande pitch, there’s no way he should be in the top 10. Bastardo on the other hand… Also what’s the ruling on Matheson’s eligibility?

  8. BA said by 2013 the phillies new probable 3rd baseman is sebastian valle catcher travis d’arnaud rightfielder dominic brown #3 starter kyle drabek no taylor in the lineup #5 starter trevor may

  9. Murray: Mathieson is technically eligible, since he hasn’t thrown 50 major league innings yet, but he’s not a classic “prospect” unorthodox career path (a result of all the injuries). But he’s fair game for the Reader Top 30 and any personal lists.

    And I wouldn’t read too much into the 2013 depth chart. I know BA mentioned under the Valle scouting report that both he and d’Arnaud had fielded some grounders at third, but the organization is smart enough to understand that moving someone off catcher who can stick there defensively is a last gasp scenario.

  10. It’s up now

    1. Domonic Brown, of
    2. Kyle Drabek, rhp
    3. Michael Taylor, of
    4. Travis D’Arnaud, c
    5. Trevor May, rhp
    6. Anthony Gose, of
    7. Sebastian Valle, c
    8. Jarred Cosart, rhp
    9. Antonio Bastardo, lhp
    10. Domingo Santana, of

    Man BA lists are getting too predictable.

  11. JSlasher88, file that in the “out of nowhere” department, along with this: Manuel mentioned in the chat that James is the best athlete in the entire system. That’s high praise from the scouting community, especially with Brown, Hewitt, Gose, Collier, and Hudson all around.

  12. Not sure if I’m allowed to include this (it’s not part of the scouting reports though) so take it down if you need to.

    Manuel says in his chat that he thinks the Phillies have a top ten system, although he admits he’s higher on it than most. He says it’s not top five because a lot of the talent’s still at low A or below.

    That’s pretty encouraging, considering we gave up four highly-rated prospects this year.

  13. You know, that’s a pretty accurate list. You could move a few guys up or down a few spots (I think that’s a bit high for Gose, yet I understand the rationale for putting him there), but if I made my own list it would be very similar.

  14. I’m not trying to relay a bunch of subscription-based material here, but I think Manuel’s response to this question should quiet a lot of the rampant speculation on here regarding the Valle-to-3B stuff.

    Kyle (Phillly): From the projected lineup in 2013, you have Valle as your 3b?? When does he make the switch, shouldnt he do this ASAP with the lack of 3B besides Mattair in the system.

    John Manuel: No, he should not do it ASAP. He has a lot more value at C, and he should try to get better at C. It’s no sure think that d’Arnaud would make it, either. Catching is hard. But, as I wrote, both players have taken grounders at 3b, and for the future lineup, that was good enough for me to move one there. It tells you that the Phils have no full-season 3Bs who project as regulars. The future lineups are supposed to be a fun guide, “what would this team look like if it had to rely completely on its farm system” kind of deal. Instead sometimes it’s taken very literally. Don’t take them literally.

  15. I am not sure they buy into Valle at 3B, but it is hard to project anyone from the system at 3B these days. Mattair and Hewitt are not realistic to project at the moment. Valle is as good a guess as any if you have to pick within the system.

    Not a bad list. I was expecting Brody Colvin somewhere on the list. While I like Cosart, I think Colvin projects higher at this point.

  16. James is similar to Dom Brown, big athletic outfielder. Also like Dom Brown had scholarship offers to D1 football teams.

  17. andy, thought I’d heard that they moved Hewitt to OF, I think starting in Instructional.

    Given how much work he has to do with the bat and the sub-.900 fielding percentage, this seemed like a prudent move.

  18. Until we see Hewitt in the outfield fulltime I’m not sure we should close the door on him playing 3B. Most of us think he is better suited tools-wise for the OF, but the Phillies may still want to see him in both places to further evaluate him.

    Reality is we probably acquire 1 or 2 more 3B rentals like Feliz, but at least the organization is being open-minded about D’Arnaud and Valle being potentially 2 major league bats with only 1 spot in the lineup.

  19. Hewitt is almost certainly done at 3B.

    And I think its for the best.

    This team really has a blind spot when it comes to 3B. I think the only way they find a legit 3B prospect is to have a top 15 pick in the draft and have a college guy just fall in their lap. And with the state of the MLB team being what it is, a top 15 pick doesn’t seem likely any time soon, and its tough to complain about that.

  20. I find it interesting y putting flande in top ten, dont know he was that good a prospect. Or is it lack of talent that makes y rate him this high/

  21. As long as the Phils are able to move players from an area of excess, of, to get a prospect at 3b, they can overcome their void at that position. I am sure other organizations have 3b prospects backed up like we do in the outfield.

  22. i dont think it is imperative to have a prospect at every position. Thanks to good ole Curt Flood we can always bring in free agents to play positions. We have been very lucky to develop legit superstars and because of this we can bring in role players cheaply to fill in the the holes.

    I think its almost like they have put all of their chips into drafting toolsy outfielders in hopes of landing a superstar or 2. They do this by neglecting the infield, but they also increase their odds of landing the golden ticket. Its just a different way of going, but not a bad one. And honestly, prospect for prospect trades happen VERY infrequently (mayberry for golson only happened because both teams were hoping new digs would salvage those kids). The only way we trade for a third base prospect is if we fall out of contention.

  23. Though rare, a prospect for prospect trade can happen, but more likely, we could trade for an established 3B, as we did for Lee. It would have to be a guy already making a hefty salary, but could well be a player who could be a star in Philly for half a decade.

  24. I think the most likely situation is dealing from strength to weakness. Where do we have organizational strength? outfield, pitcher, and catcher come to mind. there are numerous high-ceiling prospects at all of those positions, more prospects than cna legitimately aspire to have roster spots with philly at the major league level.

    essentially, michael taylor is probably most likely to be traded, as the highest-upside prospect who is most disposable. the other possibilities are guys like vance worley, but a package with four back of the rotation guys doesn’t really net you much of anything.

    obviously, the cheapest solution to the mind-numbing lack of infield prospects the phillies have would simply be to draft some infielders that can hit the ball and measure the strike zone.

  25. I am not sure I would trade either top catcher (D’Arnaud and Valle). Odds are at least one of them does not make it and each of them has an ETA around when Ruiz will be eligible for free agency. I like Ruiz, but he will probably be too expensive or just a backup in a couple of years.

  26. Yes, the d’arnauds are brothers. Yes, I would keep both D’Arnaud and Valle. That’s development insurance, plus the big team will need two catchers anyway. Two cheap ML catchers with talent and a future will be a major luxury. A little friendly on-going competition for playing time can be a good thing.

  27. I saw Flande late in the season. He was ripped around pretty well by New Britain but 2 plays in the field, that could have and should have been made, added 4 or 5 runs that could have been avoided. He was having trouble getting the breaking ball over and NB was sitting on the fastball. He had a lot of innings on his arm by that time of the season so he could have tiring. I’d like to see him when he’s going well to see if he has the pitches to play in Philly.

  28. Flande is a marginal guy at best. He doesn’t throw hard and isn’t very big but does have games where he’s on and pithes well. His margin for error is noticeably smaller than some others. The Phils’ Reading rotation should be pretty loaded again with Worley and Stutes repeating there and Cisco and Flande starting there after their late season promotions. The 5th starter will probably be Naylor but there are choices. That rotation with BJ and Shwim in the pen with Monastarios could be very good. What will really be fun will be to see where all the outfielders start next season. Some guys (Myers?) will ultimately get squezzed out because the college guys taken this year (Dugan, Hudson, Altherr) will play as will Collier, Hewitt, and Castro.

  29. Agree w/ PP on Hewitt, time to try OF. I would love to see a draft this year that focuses on 3b, ss, 2b, and pitching. Can the Phils take off one year from the OF toolshed mentality? Also, how about spending $$ on a latin american 3b?

  30. Where is Austin Hyatt ? He belongs in the top 10 before Flande and Hudson . He maybe the best relief pitcher in their system.

  31. It was interesting to note that Amaro said somewhere in the last few days that they would be open to extending a multi-year contract to whomever they end up signing for 3Base because there is no on the horizon in the system. At least they are willing to acknowlege the problem.

  32. You know, I started freaking out myself about our infield and then I looked at the Yankees and realized that some of their infield stars are a lot older than our guys. Yes, it’s a big need, particularly if someone gets injured, but if they begin addressing the problem now, it can be fixed. The bigger issue is that it’s extremely hard to find great hitting middle infielders. You can find good hitting first basemen and corner outfielders. Guys like Utley and Rollins, however, don’t come along every day, particularly Utley, who, in my view, will likely end up on the short list of greatest all-time second basemen provided he plays long enough.

  33. The good news is nobody in our infield was that highly sought after in the draft. We scouted them and signed them. Anyone could have had Rollins and Howard and almost everyone could have had Utley. Phillies’ scouts saw their true value. We need more of that in this year’s draft. Turn the US and international scouts loose with a strong budget. Utley and Howard were fairly hidden college gems. Find another of those and you can have a major leaguer in just a few seasons, but we can wait for the right HS prospect.

  34. Utley was a first rounder and from a major college program.

    Its crazy how this system has turned around in the last 3 years. Guys like colven, cosart, and may are young with huge potential. There is quite a bit of talent here beyond our top 3…it should be a fun year for phils minor leaguers

  35. I saw Flande pitch a game in Trenton this past season, probably around the midpoint. He had some command problems in the first inning but ended up settling in and rolling along pretty well through most of the game. He got a whole bunch of swings and misses on his changeup. Trenton got some runs off him late in his start but that was mostly due to poor defense. I came away fairly impressed with him.

  36. Keep in mind, Scott Rolen was a 2nd round pick, so the lack of a high first round pick, does not preclude the Phils from drafting a 3B that can be an All-Star and play 3B for 10+ years (albeit, let’s get someone that is less of a jerk). I would keep D’Arnaud and Valle at C for the time being. When they get closer to the majors, I would worry about it then. I would keep them comfortable and focused on progressing. As for the 2010 draft, I have to think the Phils will focus on the IF as that is clearly the area in need of the most improvement (especially considering Hewitt won’t be playing IF and Mattair hasn’t done much).

  37. Yes, the Phillies have had great luck with some of their second round picks. Rolen, Schmidt, and Rollins were all second round picks. However, some good luck over forty-odd years is not a replacement for high draft picks, nor does it mean that one can rest assured that the team will “strike gold” again with a lower round pick. Over time, the loss of high draft picks will tend to diminish the quality of the talent pool and we sure as heck cannot rely on the possiblity that another Scott Rolen will be sitting there the next time the team goes in to draft.

    Speaking of Scott Rolen, he would still look pretty darned good on the present squad, wouldn’t he? No hot stove talk, I promise, but it is intriguing.

  38. ed —
    I never said Utley wasn’t a first rounder or that he wasn’t from a major college program. The point I was making is that the Phillies drafted Chase with the 15th pick of the first round, after he was passed on by 14 other teams. He was the best player in that draft. Who knows how far he would have fallen in the first round had we not taken him? That is evidence of superior scouting by us.

  39. The next two years are among the most critical in team history.

    As we have seen and will continue to see, the Phillies are not the Yankees, they will not be the top payroll team, although they are will to spend a lot of money. Ultimately, in order to keep the team this successful, they are going to have to allow certain able talent to leave and replace that talent with younger players. It’s going to be a difficult balancing act, but one that is certainly possible with a bit of foresight and with continued strong drafts and signings.

    In my view, Ruben has to be careful not to fall into the very dangerous trap of constantly being in a position where he has to sacrifice a lot of top notch minor league talent in order to bring in missing pieces. He has to be selective and he has to allow top notch talent to mature and deveop on the big league team. If he doesn’t do that and we don’t become really big spenders, there is going to be a big hangover around 2012 or 2013.

    Here’s one vote for the balanced approach.

  40. Assuming a deal/expensive signing is made in some manner for a 3rd baseman. That would mean 6 of the 8 position players on next years team would have come through the draft or cheap free agents. Not exactly even trying to match the Yankees method of talent acquisition. It seems that Rub/Gillick have been careful about how they are acquiring talent.

  41. Comparing Phuturephillies projected list to the actual BA lists shows that the BA lists are better than many describe them to be, as their list is better than his. I agree they still love them some Golson, but even that has changed. The Phillies have drafted so many Golsons that even BA now looks at our minors and sees a flock of barely distinguishable raw, high risk, athletic, speedy OF who badly need to be taught how to hit. They also seem to have finally concluded that it does seem to matter much whether these guys are taken in the first round, second round or later round. What you have in all cases are basically the same raw high reward/really high risk player. In fact, they don’t think the first rounders are as good. They like Jiwan James best of the lot. But you take Hewitt, Duggan, James, Gose, Hudson, Myers, and the dearly departed Golson and you see not a ton of difference between them. You basically throw a big net over all of them. Brown was basically under the same net, other than bigness.

  42. Allentown – you are making my argument. I don’t mind the really risky picks with a big upside, but the use of first round picks for these players who are totally impossible to project AT ALL leaves me scratching my head. And may I remind you that, at least with high school hitters, the Phillies seem to be relatively bad at distinguishing which of these “toolsheds” will be good ballplayers and which will be back in their hometowns in 5 years looking for a job.

  43. By the way, I am fine with “toolsy” high school pitchers – because you can teach pitching and project growth a velocity to a certain extent. And I am fine with the big updside college players who didn’t hit on cylinders in college (for whatever reason), if for no other reason than the Phillies have an outstanding track record at developing these players (see Jason Donald, Michael Taylor and Ryan Howard – Utley doesn’t count because he was a first round pick – everyone knew he would be good, they just didn’t know how good).

  44. The questions about Utley were on defense. He was generally viewed as the best bat in his collegiate draft class.

  45. well, utley has been the best defender from his draft class as well. and any other draft class in this decade, for that matter.

  46. Yes, our scouts may have seen a defensive problem they knew was correctable. The questions about Utley leading up to the draft was whether he could remain at 2B or would have to move to 1B or OF.

  47. I don’t know how much you can credit our scouts for Utley’s defense. The reason his D improved so much was because he’s one of the hardest working players you’re going to find on the planet.

  48. B —
    I don’t see how your comment negates the scouting. His work ethic was observable by every team’s scouts, as was his defensive ability, which was generally viewed an inadequate. Our scouts saw something that most of the other scouts did not. That is how we got the best player in the draft picking out of the #15 spot.

  49. I think B has a point . Many players with “good worth ethic”
    drop them when they get some bucks in their pocket and have achieved being drafted. The credit belongs to Utley 90%.

  50. Allentown,
    If the Phillies had picked first the year they drafted Utley 15th would they have still picked Utley with the very first pick?

  51. This thread is reminding me of a pet idea of mine. Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Rolen are, in my view, the best drafted infield of contemporaries (players who could have all played together for multiple years) in baseball history. Dodgers of Cey, Garvey, etc. were good and a few others, but to me this infield 4 is phenomenal and best ever drafted in a common time frame.

  52. Hard to argue with that——wish Rolen was still here. He played hard and well while in Philadelphia.
    I am gettin excited about Gose—he looks like a real down in the dirt gritty player.

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