Daily Discussion

A rough outing last night in CLearwater for the recently promoted Tyler Cloyd who gave up 6 runs (4 earned), on 9 hits, in 5.2 innings in his Clearwater debut.  Justin DeFratus had similar troubles in his first start in Lakewood giving up three runs in three innings.  He was pulled after three as he is on a pitch count, as his arm needs to be stretched out.

In Reading, 4 more hits for Michael Taylor combined with Joe Savery’s 10th win of the year as he threw six more shutout innings, in the 12-2 Rwading drubbing of Trenton.

The decision on who will be called up from Lehigh Valley to take Antonio Bastardo’s rotation spot will be made today.  The Lehigh Valley rotation lines up with Kendrick throwing tonight, followed by Carrasco scheduled for tomorrow and Carpenter in Game One of a doubleheader on Friday.  I will be at Coca Cola Park tonight and will do my best to get some info posted before game time at 7:00 should I learn anything.

108 thoughts on “Daily Discussion

  1. Who has seen Taylor play this year? What weakness do you see in his approach and swing during ABs?

  2. I think it’s time to give Carpenter his first REAL shot at the big leagues for 2 reasons.

    1) He has earned the chance with a stellar record in AAA ball. I know that some people think his stuff is mediocre but there is nothing more for him to prove in the minors. Bring him up and let him sink or swim.

    2) Carrasco, after a tough start, looks like he is finally learning how to pitch in AAA ball. Let him continue to have success and build up his confidence. If Carpenter fails, there is still time to give Carrasco his chance this year.

  3. If someone said back in 2007 that in his second full season as a pro, Joe Savery would be 10-1 with a 3.08 ERA for Reading, I think people would be hyping him as a top-5 prospect. Yes, his walk rate is still high, but he’s getting people out and has lowered his WHIP by more than a quarter run.

    Glad to see Joe has turned it around this season.

  4. Not to worry on Cloyd. I always ignore the first apperance or two when a guy moves up in mid-season. It is disorientig for an inexperienced pro to change leagues, teammates, coaches and scenery when he just got used to the previous ones. Michael Taylor sturggled for two weeks in Clearwater before finding his comfort zone. I will look for Cloyd to throw some good games in the FSL in July and August and be at Reading next year as a starter.

  5. Very tough call between Carpenter and Carrasco callup, IMO.

    Carpenter could be a somewhat reliable #5, a little like Moyer, giving up 3 or 4 runs most games in 5-7 IP. Also, he is more experienced and has a better record this year.

    But you have to balance that against Carrasco having the potential to be a good bit better and throw a really nice game very 2 or 3 starts.

    I would not bet a nickel on which guy they call up. And there is a good case for both.

  6. Anonymous: saw the double header on Sat night in Trenton. as far as I can tell Taylor’s swing is primo.. .351 avg with 56 rbi’s and 14 hr’s..I would venture to say his swing is better than 3/4’s of the players in the majors..hope that alleviates any questions about his swing !!! I am tired of watching him in the minors..He belongs in Phila …….

  7. Anonymous,go back to arbuckle a cc park post,i answered your ?on taylor yesterday

  8. Would I be correct in stating that not one player who appeared in the Iron Pigs game last night is even a long shot prospect?

  9. yeah,i would almost bet that the Iron Pigs start an older lineup than the big club,anyone what to do the math?

  10. Sorry to burst the Savery bubble but he’s getting really lucky. His FIP is a run and a half higher than his ERA and his BABIP is a low .250. His walk rate is higher, K rate lower, and GO/AO is down as well. Regression is coming.

  11. I love the “X is getting lucky” stuff.

    FWIW on Savery: No reason to rush him. Glad to see the wins and the ERA moving down, but he does need to work on some things. There’s a lot of reason for optimism with him, but let’s let him work on things

  12. Pat,
    What do you mean Savery’s GO/AO is down?

    In April it was 1.04, in May it was 1.0 and now in June it is 2.1. If anything he is getting better. The fact that he is becoming a groundball pitcher makes even more valuable to the Phillies.

    His BB per 9 is much improved in Jun
    April: 4.0
    May: 5.0
    June: 3.3

  13. Maybe the two guys who got hit off Savery were lucky also.
    AB Says:

    Savery’s value is peaking just in time for Bedard to get off the DL, I like it
    Count me in also especially if we can sign him. That might not be too hard ,he is good at burning bridges. Someone else
    also said he like Bedard as a closer next year. If he will go along he could be lights out for a long time.

  14. Bedard as a closer?!

    The guy’s a stud starter, why the heck would you move him to the pen?

  15. There is no way they would sign Bedard before hitting FA if part of a trade. Why would he give up a chance to hit FA for the first time in his career when he is 2 months from the deadline?

    He’d be a pure rental, but still a potentially impact one. And the Phils would probably have to kick in another prospect since theoretically if he pitches well and stays there he’d earn Type A status and recoup and 1st or 2nd and a sandwich pick….so I am thinking Savery and Donald makes some sense, since Donald’s injury isn’t considered serious and the Ms are pretty barren at SS

  16. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=paS04017&position=P

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=paS04017&position=P&season=

    There’s his season stats and game logs, the high amount of walks, low amount of K’s and low BABIP tells me a regression is coming. The ten wins and low ERA are super but I’m telling you don’t be surprised to see him put up a couple ten hit, ten run, 3 inning jobbers where everyone starts to talk about how his stuff is that of a reliever again.

  17. The only problem with Taylor that I see is that he does not hit lefthanded pitching as well as righties. His average is over 100 points higher against righties than lefties this year. Even in Hawaii last fall when he was in the lineup he face more lefties than righties to work on the problem but still hit under .300.

  18. i think he’ll hit lefties in time with more experience. I’d be more concerned if his splits were reversed. The fact that he is raking on righties with balls breaking away makes it more impressive.

  19. Ah yes, his numbers are human against lefties. What a shame 😉 No offense to your observation, RB, just noting how much of a monster Taylor is.

  20. Bedrosian’s Beard Says:

    Bedard as a closer?!

    The guy’s a stud starter, why the heck would you move him to the pen

    To be a stud starter he has to stay off the DL. Just a thought

  21. From KG:

    Logically, he should have five hits tomorrow

    Michael Taylor, OF, Marlins (Double-A Reading)
    Monday’s stats: 4-for-5, 2 2B, RBI, K
    After two hits on Saturday and three on Sunday, Taylor upped the ante a bit with his second four-hit effort of the season (he also had a five-hit game in May). One of the more frequent names to show up on the Minor League Updates this year, it’s for good reason, as he’s now 18-for-33 in his last eight games and batting .351/.414/.600 overall. All of sudden, he’s in the picture for some kind of look at the end of the year, and could get the opportunity to at least force some difficult decisions by the Phillies next year in a crowded outfield picture.

  22. on sportscenter Peter Gammons said the Phillies farm system is loaded. Btw if we trade for a starting pitcher or any player, we have so many prospects that we don’t have to give up any of our top guys. No Drabek, Brown, Taylor, Knapp, and even no Marson, Carrasco, Donald, or Savery. For Bedard we can give up Carpenter, Mayberry,(Because we already have Taylor and Brown), and maybe Drew Naylor or a guy like Travis Mattair. We don’t have to give up a top ten or a top 15 prospect to get pitching. its smarter

  23. Peavy’s on the DL, he’s not a stud?

    max,

    You have to give something up to get something, espeically if we’re talking about a quality pitcher. I don’t see Carpenter, Mayberry and Naylor getting you Meche, let alone Bedard. Although, it’s not the Phillies fault the M’s gave up a lot to get him, the M’s want a nice haul in return.

  24. I dont think the Ms will offer a contract to Bedard and coming off the DL a lot of teams will shy away at least as far as whom they will offer. If he can stay healthy until the post season he will be worth it. BUT I dont know his head and management has to.
    Dont forget the Phils are not dealing with the sharpest bunch here just ask Silva etc.

  25. Bedrosian, I am pretty sure Meche would cost more in prospects than Bedard (even though the latter is a better pitcher when he’s out there) due to contollability….2.5 years I believe on Meche’s deal, vs .5 on Bedard’s

    Although I agree with you that we would need to give up some quality in a Bedard deal, at least enough to offset the potential for them to recoup the arb picks (but also, by trading him they circumvent the pretty decent chance he would accept arb for around 10mm that they wouldn’t necessarily want to pay).

    Which is why I threw out Savery and Donald, two solid but not spectacular prospects, pretty close to ML ready, and not among the Phils top 6 system prospects IMO. If they prefer Mayberry to Donald then I would go for that, I see them as being pretty comparable as prospects from the Phils end. Maybe have to throw in another filler piece, but I think that would lay the framework for discussion at least

  26. Daily Discussion
    June 30, 2009 — gregg

    A rough outing last night in CLearwater for the recently promoted Tyler Cloyd who gave up 6 runs (4 earned), on 9 hits, in 5.2 innings in his Clearwater debut.

    You have to wonder how minor league defense plays into the pitchers head and ERA

  27. From Pat Burrell from KG:

    “Michael Taylor, OF, Marlins (Double-A Reading)
    Monday’s stats: 4-for-5, 2 2B, RBI, K”

    Marlins? Whoops, haha.

  28. anyone have an idea on whats going on with Edgar Garcia? Sounds like this is a lost season for him?

  29. Adding to my last post, if they Ms were high on Carpenter, I’d be in favor of giving up both Carpenter and Savery for Bedard as well. IMO both of those prospects are very likely at peak value right now

  30. I thought Meche was hurt and had low velocity his last outing.

    I think you can get a guy like Bedard without giving up our top prospects. A package of Carpenter, Savery, Mayberry, and a minor guy like Naylor might well get it done.

  31. The interesting topic is what’s going on in Ruben’s head: Carpenter vs Carrasco vs a trade. If the Phils think Carrasco is ready, he should get the nod because of the higher upside and the real need. However, if they hope to trade him, what would a bad performance do to his trade value? But, if he pitches well, do you even need to do a trade? I’m guessing they start Carrasco and hope he does well and that the trade pressure will lessen a bit while the prices come down. As for Savery, he’s throwing the ball very well and he’s very competitive. He reaches back when men get on base, its not an accident he pitches well then. He needs to improve his control much more however to pitch in the majors.

  32. Murry I just hope he does whatever on his own. What i mean to say he has to be his own man. win or lose

  33. it just seems like a black cloud follows bedard, maybe he carries it with him. or as sometimes the case maybe he,s not the friendliest guy in the world and the media has a whipping boy. i seriously dont know, but i dont like the injuries. meche,s record is better than one would expect. someone above said he is hurt? i hope not, because i would lean that way.

  34. Per Diamond Notes:

    The Dodgers traded pitcher Brian Mazone to the Phillies for future considerations, according to the Albuquerque Isotopes.

    Mazone, 32, went 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA in 13 appearances for Albuquerque, going on the disabled list twice. The left-hander had impressed during the spring and was one of the final cuts for the Dodgers.

  35. We gave Schilling and Rolen away for complete duds (not Polanco). We will find a deal where they take crumbs or just work through it. Taylor is way too good to move for anything less than as part of a package for Haren or Cain.

  36. FYI – Sam Wells was released today (from the R-Phils). Good call, Marfis. Back to 12 pitchers on both Clearwater and Reading’s rosters!

    They also called up Escalona…again. Is the 33 y/o Mazone supposed to be a permanent replacement for Escalona?

  37. i am very happy for savery and i wish him all the best. i truly do. but needless to say, i am not a convert yet and i think that pat burrell’s concerns are correct.

    even if you don’t believe in FIP or DICE or BABIP or any of the other sabermetrics stats suggest he is not as good as his 10-1 record or 3.2 era suggest. answer me this…how many good starters in MLB put up 6.17 k/9 and 4.15 walks/9 in AA ball? name a few for me please.

    i think that people forget how hard it is to compete in the bigs. guys who are starters in the bigs for longer than a half a season are guys who DOMINATE in the minors. you don’t see guys who have some good stats and some bad stats in the minors make an impact at the mlb level.

    and i know the counter argument…he is getting better and give him a few more seasons to work as a pitcher and get stronger. Fair enough. i am totally fine letting him pitch in the minors for a few more seasons. but honestly ask yourself if you think either of the three scenarios will happen:
    1. he becomes a power pitcher with an electric fastball
    2. he becomes a control pitcher with pinpoint accuracy
    3. he becomes a pitcher with amazing secondary stuff including 2-3 off-speed/breaking pitches that are mlb quality.

    because if you don’t think that he will become one of the 3 above, (and personally, i don’t) he isn’t an mlb starter for longer than Kendrick was. you just can’t fool mlb hitters for very long. without an electric fastball, your margin of error is very low – everyone knows this. without pin point control or a great fastball, your margin of error at the mlb level is gone unless you can throw some nasty, breaking stuff that crosses the plate more than it doesn’t.

    For those who have seen him, please feel free to correct me if i am wrong, but i have not heard one mention of Savery having either: a. an electric fastball; b. pinpoint control or c. un-Godly breaking or off-spead stuff. which means, he ain’t going to be an mlb starter. sorry.

  38. Tom Glavine in AA: 4.3 BB9 and 7.1 K9.

    Did not have an electric arm or great breaking stuff but developed pin point accuracy in the bigs.

  39. I’d bring up Carpenter. He’s had a number of good outings, and wasn’t terrible in his one big league start this year.

  40. PP Fan-reasonable thoughts.

    But to be honest, you have been a little over-the-top in the past regarding Savery and trying to prove he can’t cut it.

  41. Agreede pp fan, although I do concede that Savery is continuing to develop and could be serviceable one day. Hopefully his secondary stuff and control develop. Let’s hope the Phillies don’t rush him.

  42. They said Meche might miss a start with a tired arm but he is still scheduled to go.

  43. Nick,

    Good example…. though you have to admit, like glavine, there are always players defying the odds… I wouldn’t put it past savery, but I think the haters are probably somewhat right… he’ll probably end the year closer to a 4 era then 3. If he proves me wrong then fine, he wouldn’t be the first player/pitcher to do so.

    Ryan Howard wasn’t drafted high or offered a ton of money, Chase Utley was never seen as a potential HOF at 2nd base (or any other base for that matter). Or thinking of more recent prospects, how about bastardo, the stat heads hated him even though he had a high k/9 and era.

    Maybe the best of all examples is Raul Ibanez… or Jamie Moyer… Guys who were basically told to retire or that they’d be career backups, and now one is putting up MVP numbers and the other is past 250 wins.

  44. The aces are falling like autumn leaves. I see no harm in giving Carpenter a start. If people like him in a trade one bad game isnt going to throw them off much. The upside has more appeal then a trade right now. Almost every ace discussed e.g. Peavy who some were ready to morgage the farm for ,is ailing.

  45. Well let’s hope the braves’ lack of hitting ability helps him. Would love him to put all those mentally weak questions behind him so we can have a quality righty on the staff to compliment the lefties and Blanton.

  46. you guys being so down on Savery is ridiculous. His Ga/AO is VERY significantly improving. He reminds me of a lefthanded Derek Lowe.

  47. Sam – Todd Zolecki says different.

    “J.A. Happ will pitch Thursday against Atlanta, which means TBA (Carrasco, Carpenter, etc.) will pitch Friday against the Mets in Philly.”

  48. Glavine had just turned 20 when he was in AA. Savery is 23. Enormous difference. PP Fan is dead on.

    The M’s are not giving up Bedard for Savery and Donald. They’re still only 3.5 games out in a mediocre division. They gave up Adam Jones for Bedard. They’re not going to turn around and trade him a year later for our 7th and 15th best prospects. Bedard’s going to cost Taylor, Brown, Knapp, or Drabek. If you exclude those guys, it’ll probably take something along the lines of Donald, Marson and Worley.

  49. age aside, which wasn’t one of PP Fan’s criteria, glavine never dominated in the minors with his peripherals but developed in the pros. I’m sure there are many other cases more age appropriate but I chose glavine since that was the comparison coming out of college. I was surprised to see just how average (maybe even below average) his numbers were prior to his promotion to the majors. Lefties develop a little slower than righties but I think Savery is on the right track.

  50. Also, Glavine pitched in a much tougher pitchers’ environment in AA. The average team in the 1986 Southern League scored 5.23 runs per game.

  51. i just saw a report that the mariners are looking at greg dobbs. even though hes struggled at times this year he was still the best pinch hitter in the league last year so a combination of him and savery and donald would probably get the job done

  52. I’d venture to say the stat line Savery put up in June is closer to being the real Joe Savery then the one in April/May who was giving up way more fly balls….

    Month of June line 56.1% GB – 3.30 BB/9 – 6.30 K/9 – 4.04 FIP – .60 HR/9

    Last year’s stat line 50.3% GB – 3.40 BB/9 – 6.92 K/9 – 3.91 FIP – .57 HR/9

    And as far as his overall low BABIP, check out the splits in it. His BABIP on righties is .272 which isn’t out the norm. His BABIP against lefties is .194. And his line drive % on lefties is 8.2% that means guys aren’t squaring up on the ball off him at all. I’d venture to say he’s doing something right and this isn’t just a result of “luck”. At worst he looks like he could be a good LOOGY out of the pen with his splits the past 2 years.

  53. as I have said before, do not be surprised tosee a trade with the Indians, and you very well could see three players go for a Cliff Lee. Even Perter Gammons has mentioned an interest from Philly to cleveland about Lee. The three players most likely would be Mahar, Taylor and a top farm pitcher. And , oh by the way, Mahar also had four hits yesterday and is hitting around 360 for June, and has major league experience with ability to play four postions, as he did in the majors. Just a thought.

  54. There is clearly a pattern to Savery’s stats. He is much more effective with runners on but he gives up more walks. What it seems in indicate he needs to work on throwing from the wind up or junk it.
    It is hard to complain about a .116 average with men in scoring position for the whole year. It would be interesting if someone can find out what that number was for June.

  55. I am trying to get into this WHIP thing

    With runners one Savery 1.000 as opposed to Drabek 1.46
    Bases empty Drabek is close to 1.00 Savery 1.56

    Two ways to get the job done.

  56. “The M’s are not giving up Bedard for Savery and Donald. They’re still only 3.5 games out in a mediocre division. They gave up Adam Jones for Bedard. They’re not going to turn around and trade him a year later for our 7th and 15th best prospects. Bedard’s going to cost Taylor, Brown, Knapp, or Drabek. If you exclude those guys, it’ll probably take something along the lines of Donald, Marson and Worley.”

    What they gave up for him in reality is meaningless. It is a sunk cost. Also, it was a different front office that acquired him, so the new regime has no reason to stubbornly hold on to him to justify anything

    As far as the M’s being competitive, for now true, but their offensive struggles combined with a Beltre injury and a -15 run differential do not portend good things. The Angels are beginning to peak as well. They may be one of those non-contenders that hold on too long with false hopes, but I am assuming that they come around to (considering strongly) dealing both Bedard and Washburn eventually. Bedard needs time to prove health anyway, so they have a couple weeks to fall out of it

    Past that, Bedard now is in his walk year. He is currently a B, could be a Type A with some decent health from here on out. So they realistically can assume that they will get either a talented and injury prone pitcher for around 1 year 10 mil if he accepts arb (very unlikely IMO if he does return healthy and pitch well), or two top 100 draft picks if they stand pat with him

    I think a factor in his availability is how much payroll flexibility they will have this offseason. If he has an injury prone second half, having Bedard on a one year deal to prove health in a pitcher’s park would not be a terrible thing if they can afford it. If they are unwilling or cannot afford 7 digits on Bedard coming off another injury-filled year (assuming he is hurt/struggles enough again to accept arb), then it is a huge risk NOT to trade him now

    After all that and assuming he does hit the market, it is possible still that he would recieve better offers. I just doubt a lot of teams would be coming up with Sabathia-like offers for Bedard, who is not only an inferior pitcher but a substantial health risk. I also think Donald and Savery fit organizational needs for SEA, and provide advanced talent (vs very projectable lowball guys)

    In a larger market view, some of the biggest market franchises like CHI-N, NYY, BOS, who may be the most aggresive in terms of giving up prospects, at this time don’t appear to be needy of SP

    I think we will definitely hear a lot more Bedard talk before the deadline, with the Phils in a good position (IMO) to get a crack at him

  57. I’ve started to salivate over some of Michael Taylor’s eye-popping numbers as well, and wanted to float a question out to the community. In addition to the gaudy avg, slg, ops, and hr numbers that Taylor is throwing up, I noticed he also has an incredibly high BABIP – currently at 378, compared to his 408 in A ball and 378 at A+ (both 2008). Basically my question is this: is this something he could reasonably replicate in the pros? And if not, what does that do to his potential as an MLB hitter? To give a little context, a 380 BABIP would put him ahead of Hanley this year, and just behind the likes of Wright, Suziki, and Upton.

    A couple of thoughts I’ve had: first, a batter’s BABIP seems to be partially influenced by LD% and speed, both of which Taylor has in abundance. But then again, not only will pitchers be better in the pros, but so will defenses. What do folks think this means for Taylor as a pro?

    Part of why this matters, to my eyes, is that Taylor maintains an obscene OBP mostly because he just tears the cover off the ball. But if his BABIP goes way down, will he manage to keep OBP and OPS up? Especially given that he doesn’t take a lot of walks? Any thoughts are appreciated. Thanks.

  58. One more thing: as for the walks, this is another area where it’s tough to get a good read on Taylor. Based only on his walk% you might imagine he lacks a great hitter’s eye, but then again, his BB/K is a very respectable .62 this year. So what’s the deal? Does he have a sharp eye or not? Again, curious because BB% is usually a good indicator of MLB success. Thanks again.

  59. BABIP is partially controlled by LD, FB, and GB rates. From my understanding there is still little understanding of how much control the batter has over it and what an average BABIP should be. Some guys maintain over their career high BABIPs while other guys maintain pedestrian ones.

    I don’t think though that Taylor can maintain a 370-410 BABIP, but even him at 310-320 is good and he would probably still have a High Batting average.

  60. Thanks for the feedback, Joe. I think you are correct that Taylor still has great value at a lower BABIP, but one of the things that seems great about Taylor is his OBP and OPS. It’s hard to imagine he can keep them so high if his BABIP goes down, unless, of course, he can draw more walks.

  61. So I was wondering if anyone had any information on TJ Warren at Williamsport, he spent all year at lakewood last year and batted about 250, nothing special but not horrible, and he really struggled the first two years in the organization but now he is at Williamsport and is raking, he is 20 now but maybe he is just a late bloomer from high school, any thoughts?

  62. They limiting Knapp’s innings? Or high PC? (can’t imagine with only 2 hits and 2 walks)

  63. yea but 12 strikeouts thats going to be a lot of pitches, but i would think its a combination of both cuz of his age. He has only been average about 5 innings a start all year tho, so I think its just limiting his innings, cuz there is no big rush on him

  64. Guys, Knapp threw 103 pitches in his 5 innings, which is why he came out. At one point he struck out eight straight hitters, seven of which were swinging.

    The only run that he gave up was on a first and third play where the runner scored from third after the throw down to 2nd. They got the guy at second but the ump said the runner from 3rd scored before the out was recorded (it was close, manager argued).

  65. mikemike great post just another way of telling you how much they know. its much easier to see someone and know ” shoot that boy can play ” theres no category for that in ba. or bp.

  66. mikemike, when you see a player like taylor you know he,s good. hits for average power speed good defense walks its not nuclear science and when you see a pitcher who gets lit up, walks batters, you know it. if anyone thinks scouts actually say his babip is good so,s his ld or his dice check his dc over ad, they havent sat behind the plate and talked with scouts. remember the old expression k,i,s,s. keep it simple stupid.

  67. LHV has 7 active infielders but only 3 active outfielders. Newhan’s been playing OF but Taylor will be up on or by 8/1. I’m a bit ticked about that because my son and I were hoping to see him play in New Britain in August (but his advancement and growth are what it’s all about). That’s the 1st time Reading comes to NB. Maybe I’ll get to see Brown by then.

  68. john what would those stats mean with clemente , he never walk just was great, and remember the catcher for pittsburg, he hit balls over his head, santiago I think was his name what were these guys baib and so on when they were in the minors? I just think you know a lot about someone by watching him.

  69. Knapp cumulative season stats on Strikeouts per Inning Pitched are looking good. 104 Strikeouts and dropoff from that on the innings pitched, can’t remember the number, but significant.

    Kyle Kendrick pitched well , yesterday, too bad for him he could not pitch Friday or Saturday. Followers can decide if that’s good or bad for them or Team. Pitched a complete game with only 5 flyball outs, and typically not so many Strikeouts, so it looks like he, at least has a good sinker going. The rest, I don’t know, maybe there’s a first hand account around.

  70. mikemike your talking about the roadrunner manny sanguillan. and your right. all of the things you hear today in sabremetric talk are not new, their just written down and given codes. 20 or 30 years the same things were memorized and written down on pen and paper. nothing changes. money ball is not new walter alston did the same thing 40 years ago. in the end it comes down to what players are dominant and which ones are not. baseballs a simple game really.

  71. a good example, knapp had 12 k,s in 5 innings last night. pretty damn good as long as his walks were low. whats that tell you? keep it up for another year or two and he,ll have a shot. jimmy rollins gets on base 1 every 2 games. terible for a lead off man. your wasting too many plate appearences. he should be hitting 8th if at all. it doesnt take a genius to see he uppercuts his swing,doesnt take pitches, and doesnt bunt, and goes way out of the strike zone. hence you have bobby wine.

  72. Taylor was hit in the head during his first at bat. Hit the ball extremely hard the next 3 times, struck out 3-2 count on slider and hit fly ball out for last at bat.
    He also lost out on another outfield assist at home when the ball came loose on the tag.
    Amaro was there.

  73. onto what to do, to all of the donald haters when he is healthy, which i read here will be next week, he should be ready to be up here by the break. i guarantee you he will do better than he did at aaa and he will hit better than rollins. and if donalds presence doesnt light a fire under rollins i ask jimmy to take a trip to allentown. and please dont give me lopez. carrasco or carpenter. i still like the sound of the meche talks, if any, ais with ibanez back howard will be pitched to again. move rollins to 8th until break and bat werth leadoff. they have to hit to win and charlie cant be taking blanton out after 5. he didnt pitch that badly. btw i wouldnt want to s.f. in the playoffs.

  74. i meant no lopez. but yes to carrasco or carpenter. but i,d prefer meche.

  75. The veiled insults towards us for talking about Sabermetrics is absolutely unnecesary. If you don’t believe in or want to acknowledge them then fine. But, I think there is a value to them and don’t cite them to “show how much I know”. Thanks.

  76. joe we were just talking about sometimes you just need to see a player. What I Don’t understand is how you and others can take these numbers on minor league players. How do these numbers related to a player if he is only facing a major league pitcher maybe once or twice a week. He could have outstanding games against the kendricks and brummett and woods , guys who aren’t really major league pitchers , so my point is bat speed and how he approach the game, pitch recognize is more important and to get a read on that you must see him. And I am sorry if you think I was insulting you, it was only a opinion. being older in my fifites maybe I Just don’t understand the new way players are scouted,

  77. I don’t think there has been a significant change, except that teams better understand the value of On Base Percentage and plate discipline as a whole. Sabermetrics and new statistics are valuable, provided you know and understand them. I think we overrely on stats like batting average on balls in play. We also use splits too often, particularly those in clutch situations. Meanwhile, does anyone know what the park factors are for Reading, Clearwater, etc.? Those are almost entirely unknown and knowing the home environment is extremely important when reading statistics. I tend to shy away from sabermetrics because I find very little that I could not see from the basic statistical categories.

    Stat tracking in the minor leagues has flourished the last several years. Five years ago, remember how difficult it was to track reliable minor league statistics on a daily basis? Now a few clicks will give us John Elway’s season in Oneonta in 1982. (He could play.)

  78. Sorry. I have been highly frustrated and annoyed lately and your comments caught me the wrong way. I am used to people giving me a hard time because I like talking about sabermetrics.

  79. The stats are tools. Your eyes are tools. There is value to each. And extreme value when you put the two together. If you go only one way or the other that’s up to you, but I think you’re cheating yourself. To each his own.

    BTW – I feel that it was good old john from the somewhere, famous radio personality, that was being insulting, no one else. No departure from the norm.

  80. Alan,

    Couple of points here. First, at the risk of overgeneralizing, and not necessarily talking about you here, is that many of the people on this board who ridicule sabremetric statistics happen to be the same people who to one extent or another:

    (1) Blindly project excellence in traditional statistical categories in AA to the majors;
    (2) Make basic logical errors in evaluating talent;
    (3) Overvalue our talent;
    (4) Constantly engage in tiresome advocacy to prematurely promote our minor league players to the majors.

    So Part of the frustration isn’t just the arguments themselves, but the source of the arguments. Add to that the fact that few of the scoffers bother to make reasoned arguments like yours, but rather just engage in the worst kind of unsupported ridicule, and you can see why some people get frustrated. (And then the same people engaing in such ridicule get all self rightous when their own feelings get hurt by a harsh comment).

    But personalities aside, on to substance. I think it’s certainly true that some people get carried away with sabremetric statistics, but consider the following:

    (1) You yourself acknowledge “that teams better understand the value of On Base Percentage and plate discipline as a whole.” But at least some of the people commenting here don’t seem to recognize that; in this particular thread, you had at least one person entirely dismissing the relevance of Taylor’s relatively low BB numbers (compared to his other stats).

    (2) I mostly agree about there being too much emphasis here on batting average on balls in play, but it can be valauable, e.g., Marson, who had an absurdly low batting average on balls in play by his own standards, but decent stats otherwise, and, sure enough, he is now hitting.

    (3) You say “knowing the home environment is extremely important when reading statistics.” True enough, but that is exactly the kind of thing that people didn’t fully realize before sabremetrics, and (ironically) precisely the kind of thing often ignored by the scoffers on this site – that specifically, and context more generally.

    Look, the people who raised the issue of Taylor’s sabremetric stats were simply trying to get a better handle on what kind of player that Taylor was likely to develop into. Some (not all IMO) of their reasoning may be flawed, but the people ridiculing that approach (by and large) are engaging in something even more flawed – projecting Taylor to be a superstar based upon raw performance in AA.

  81. And I see one comment above which further makes my point:

    “mikemike your talking about the roadrunner manny sanguillan. and your right. all of the things you hear today in sabremetric talk are not new, their just written down and given codes. 20 or 30 years the same things were memorized and written down on pen and paper. nothing changes. money ball is not new walter alston did the same thing 40 years ago. in the end it comes down to what players are dominant and which ones are not. baseballs a simple game really”

    I mean, that is wrong on SO many levels. Alan, who despite also criticizing sabremetric analysis, identifies the biggest way in which it has revolutionized the game – increased appreciation of the value of BB and OBP generally – but there is MUCH more than that. Certainly it is true that some people had similar insights before the modern era – though I think Earl Weaver is a much better example than Walter Alston – but the difference was a few people having brilliant insights versus a more systematic scientific approach that, apart from a few holdouts, has dramatically changed the way that teams are built.

    Sure, people go overboard. But what is frustrating is the apparent belief – and John is just articulating what a lot of peopel on this board apparently believe – that this revolution in knowledge … just didn’t happen. Or at least isn’t terribly relevant. Whereas by and large, with very few exceptions (I’m looking at YOU Dusty Baker), you can’t get a job managing or (especially) in the front office of a major league team these days without understanding at some level at least the insights of the sabremetric revolution. And rightfully so.

    Now, that said, OF COURSE traditional scouting and seeing a player in action are important too. But really gets me are the people here – and we all know who they are – who seem to scoff at BOTH, and just relay upon raw traditional stats and … I don’t know, gut feelings, which might have SOME credibility, except that in most instances those gut feelings don’t even seem to be supported by personal observation. I mean, some of the same people ridiculing the sabremetric analysis on Taylor also ridicule the scouting consensus on him. And few of them have seen him in person to draw their own impressions.

    I mean, for example, the commenter here who is obsessed with replacing Rollins with Donald. He ignores both statistical evidence (this year’s horrible stats) and scouting reports (which suggest that Donald is a decent prospect but not likely good enough to start for a contender, let alone be a star) in favor of … I don’t know what. It isn’t clear. Gut feelings I guess? Good but not really spectacular play last year in AA? It isn’t as if he has seen Donald actually play, or if he has he doesn’t talk about it.

    Okay, rant over. I have every respect int he world for someone who counters sabremetric analysis with specific, first hand, even second hand scouting reports about, things like approach at the plate, swing mechanics, etc. But I see little of that here. I see a bunch of people easiy impressed with the raw trditional stats of Phillies minor leaguers, and scoff at ANY kind of evidence, statistical or otherwise, tot he contrary.

  82. Glad T J Warren has been noticed.

    A lefty OFer whose body tells you that he has power lurking, to be forthcoming during his next 3 seasons on the farm.

    He is a “sleeper” who should be joining Lakewood soon.

    There, he’ll join Gose, and Collier to form an all-lefty hitting OF.

    Drafted out of high school, he has taken 2 seasons to begin to put it together.

    Another possible gem….

  83. nice book larry, your rant as usual is one redundancy after another. earl weaver was exactly the manager who did not rely on a sabremetric approach. btw ive seen donald quite a few times in person, please get your facts straight. joe i didnt mean to insult anyone but only to point out that as long as there has been bb people have said that kid hits alot of ground balls or that kid gets on base alot. and that is the same specialized approach in english for those who dont know the jargon of sabremetrics. sabremetrics has been around for years only it was not an endless array of abbreviations that the average fan doesnt understand.most people simply know if a players good or not. and larry if the therapy works im happy for you.

  84. My Bad: T J Warren is a RIGHTY hitter.

    Even better.

    He is listed at 6’4″ and 190 lbs.

    Bet he’ll develop power once his arms, legs, wrists, and torso work together.

    Keep an eye on this guy!

    P.S. Again, DON’T TRADE TAYLOR!! Keep him in Philoly for the next 8-9 years to be better than Burrell ever was; besides, Taylor is speedy in the field and on the bases; an extraordinary arm helps in the OF against base runners together with his high OBA and OPS. A solution for the coming maintenance of competitiveness for this team…for a fab future!

    These kiind of guys don’t come along often. Hold him to join with Brown as an outstanding OF…when joined by Vic.

    I wouldn’t trade him for Santana straight up.

    Think Mike Schmidt in the OF. But with a higher oba, ba, and ops.

    Good and satsfying for Phils Phans in these troubled economic times, especially, since sports diversions help hold equanimity for baseball fans against the big DIP!

  85. “earl weaver was exactly the manager who did not rely on a sabremetric approach”

    John, you have just lost what little credibility you may have had. Your comment reveals that either you don’t have much understanding of sabremetrics, you don’t know anything about Weaver, or both. Weaver was the quintessential sabremetric manager before the term was invented.

    Weaver was an early advocate of the notion that the way to construct an offense was to get people on base & hit home runs. He was also not a big believer in one-run strategies. He believed that “[o]n offense, your most precious possessions are your 27 outs”. The truth of those key insights was later confirmed by sabremetric research – in fact, one might almost say that those insights by Weaver are the CORE sabremetric insights. Certainly among the core sabremetric insights.

    Okay, maybe Weaver just had good instincts that happened to be congruent with sabremetric thought. No. He was also big advocate of using statistics to “create matchups that were favorable either for his batter or his pitcher. He had various notebooks with all sorts of splits and head-to-head numbers for his batters and against his pitchers and would assemble his lineups according to the matchups he had.” That’s quoting the wiki entry for him, but if you know the man at all you know darn well that his use of statistics was a well known part of his managerial philosophy.

    I could go on. In this case, you’r not just wrong, but a full 180 degrees fromt he truth.

  86. “btw ive seen donald quite a few times in person, please get your facts straight. ”

    Where? When? And what, specifically, did you see that makes you like him so much? What, specifically, did you see about his approach that should make us ignore both the scouting consensus and his horrible statistical performance this year?

    John, you seem to be under some sort of illusion that your vague claims to a prior association with the Phillies give your unsupported opionions some sort of credibility. They don’t. They wouldn’t under the best of circumstances. but they certainly don’t under the real circumstances, i.e., that you constantly reveal a lack of even the most basic baseball knowledge. Like anyone else here, if you want your opinions to be taken seriously, you need to provide EVIDENCE. Something that is notably lacking in your posts, especially regarding Donald.

  87. Beautiful. I must add that I would think that a good portion of the readers here do not get the opportunity to use their eyes to evaluate these prospects (I certainly don’t). This is a big reason that we are often using advanced statistical evidence during the discussions. We are reduced to using one tool, which is why I greatly value the insight of those who saw.

    More particularly, on BABIP, this is still an evolving statistic as far as how meaningful it is. I do not find it very often that someone here cites it as gospel. We will know more about the significance of it in another 10 years.

  88. What’s the word on Durant it appears he’s demonstrating good power but still striking out way to much. But he is only 22.

    Has anyone projected Rizzotti out? He’s seems to have an idea at the plate and also very good raw power?

    I’m on the record saying the time would be now to flip Howard for a true # 1 we can control for 3 years.

  89. for all of those that hammered me about putting savery in perspective, did you read the article today in the inquire?

    here is what his pitching coach has to say about him:

    “He gives you innings and he competes,” Schrenk said. “His stuff doesn’t jump out at you, but he finds a way to get hitters out. He makes pitches when he needs to. As he moves up, though, he’s going to have to throw more strikes because it’s harder to pitch out of trouble at higher levels.”

    not exactly a tom glavine clone

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20090702_Phillies_have_minor-league_pitching_talent.html

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