Day 3/Final draft thoughts

Its time to put a bow on the 2009 Draft. As is the case with every draft, you won’t know how good the draft was until the smoke clears at the deadline and you see who was signed and who went to school. The Phillies, as was pretty predictable, took a lot of college seniors today and also a bunch of high school kids. The college guys are picked to make up the numbers, if any of them get a cup of coffee in the bigs in the future, then that was a success. If the Phillies sign 1 of the high school kids, its a big bonus. So lets have a look at who was taken today and then wrap up all of the selections with a game plan for getting these guys signed.

Update: According to Todd Zolecki’s Twitter, the Phillies have signed Dugan.

I’m going to be brief on a lot of these guys, so lets just jump right in

R31 – David Doss, C (South Alabama) – College senior, ranked 13th in AL by Baseball America, nothing to add.

R32 – Kevin Angelle, LHP (San Jacinto JC, TX) – BA has nothing on him, no scouting bureau video, so I won’t speculate. He’s 6’3, 195. Thats all I can tell you.

R33 – Collin Kleven, RHP (Mountain SS, Canada) – A pure projection pick. He just turned 18 in April and is already 6’5, 200 pounds, which is the definition of a projectable frame. He’s extremely raw, as Canada isn’t a baseball hotbed (though it is improving), so college seems likely. If his delivery can be tweaked slightly (lots of moving parts, throws straight over the top), he could turn into something. He was ranked 15th out of the 17 Canadian prospects BA ranked, most likely due to just how much of a project he is.

R34 – Arthur Griffin, RHP (San Diego) – Griffin is a junior, and its tough to figure out why he lasted this long. He allowed less than 1 hit per inning, walked 32 and struck out 85 in 81 innings this year. He’s not overpowering, his bureau video had him in the 87-90 range and I didn’t see a breaking ball. He wasn’t ranked in CA.

R35 – Phil Aviola, C (Wilmington) – College senior, no real clue. BA ranked 52 guys in Deleware, but not him. So yeah, I don’t know.

R36 – Matt McConnell, 2B (Metro State, CO) – College senior. Unranked. I know nothing.

R37 – Brodie Greene, 2B (Texas A&M) – Greene is a junior, so he has some leverage, and BA’s writeup of him sounds intriguing. He was converted from the OF to 2B, can switch hit and has good speed. He seems like a grinder type, not someone who will wow you. But we’re talking about the 37th round here. Looking at his scouting video, he holds his hands real high and kind of forward, which creates a loop in his swing. I have to think that will hurt him against better pitching/velocity. Nevertheless, you can’t expect much here. If the Phillies offer him $5K to sign, he’s probably better off returning for his senior season. BA had him ranked 33rd out of 110 prospects in Texas, which makes him a bit of a find this late if he signed.

R38 – Cory Wine, 1B (Penn State) – College senior, Penn State. No info on him, sorry.

R39 – Samuel Kidd, RHP (Ohio County HS, KY) – He’s 6’2/180, decent frame, but wasn’t written up or mentioned by BA’s draft preview, so I have no clue how good he is. He’s got a commitment to Kentucky, Kentucky does a good job with retention, see ya in 3 years.

R40 – Robert Amaro, 3B (Penn Charter HS, PA) – Hey, its Ruben’s nephew! He’s going to UVA. Moving on.

R41 – Jeff Gelalich, OF (Bonita HS, CA) – Gelalich was overshadowed by prep teammate Jiovanni Mier who went early, but he’s a projectable athlete, not surprising, and looks like he’s headed to UCLA. BA had him at 110 out of 150 prospects rated in CA.

R42 – Matt Laney, LHP (Miami Dade CC, FL) – Laney is a JuCo guy from Florida in his second year, and I have no other info on him. He’s committed to Coastal Carolina.

R43 – Francois Lafreniere, RHP (Ahuntsic, Canada) – Like fellow Canadian Phillies pick Collin Kleven, Lafreniere is very raw. He was taken by the Giants last year 9 rounds earlier, and he’s still all projection. I suspect he’s not signing again this year.

R44 – Brian Feekin, LHP (Iowa Western) – JuCo guy, third year in this case, and again, I have no info on him. See a pattern developing here?

R45 – Richard Bain, OF (Trinity Christian Academy, FL) – Bain is 6’3/180, and that’s the extent of my knowledge on him. I’m not aware of a college commitment from him, and he went unranked.

R46 – Jeff Ames, RHP (Skyview HS, WA) – Ames is a bit of an underachiever, didnt really put it together, and ends up way down in the 46th round. He’s tall (6’4) and obviously has some projection, but his fastball is kind of flat and his delivery has a lot of moving parts. He’s committed to Oregon State, which seems like a safe bet. The Phillies really do love Washington state, don’t they? BA had him 29th out of 33 prospects ranked in Washington.

R47 – Ryan Bollinger, 1B (Magic City HS, ND) – I’ve found no writeup on Bollinger, but he’s a big kid already at 6’6/185, so who knows what he’s going to look like when he’s done adding weight to his frame. His draft video shows him pitching, but he was drafted as a 1B, which is kind of odd. His delivery looks kind of rough and he’s clearly all projection at this point. He’s committed to Iowa Western CC, which is where they grabbed 44th round pick Brian Feekin from.

R48 – Wander Nunez, OF (Frankford, PA) – No clue here. He looks like he can run a little bit, and he fouled off two balls into the batting cage net in his draft video, that’s always entertaining when they use THOSE swings to showcase the guy’s skills. No idea if he’s committed anywhere or if he’s anything to think about. BA has nothing on him.

R49 – Chris Gosik, 3B (Malven Prep, PA) – No clue. Committed to East Carolina though, so probably not worth worrying about.

R50 – David Hissey, OF (Emory, PA) – Hissey is the older brother of Pete Hissey, a guy the Red Sox gave a huge bonus to last year to keep him away from school. He’s a senior. He’s our last pick. That’s it.

There you go. Of this entire group, the only guys I’d be even remotely intrigued by are Kleven, Greene, Gelalich, and Bollinger. I’m assuming one or two of the college seniors will sign, but I doubt that any of the prep guys are signing unless they really just don’t want to go to college and will take a tiny sum to just start playing now. Doesn’t seem like there is a real Jared Cosart type guy in here, except maybe Gelalich.

I kind of outlined all of the financial implications of this draft yesterday in my Day 2 review. The 2007 estimated budget was around $4M, the 2008 estimated budget was about $6.5M. In 2008 there were 3 extra picks that had to be signed, hence a rise in the overall budget. So now you have to start to make guesses. Does the World Series win and all that comes with it (strong ticket sales this year, merchandise, etc etc) mean that the money spent in the draft this year will stay the same or, gasp, maybe even increase? You can make a good argument that the Phillies should, at least, keep spending the same. That would mean about $6-6.5M this year.

So let’s just start going down the list.

R2 – Dugan – Rumor is that he’s pumped to sign and start his career. It seems the Phillies may have overdrafted him in the 2nd round, but did so because his magic number (will be referred to as MN$ from here on out) was right around the slot recommendation for the Phillies pick in Round 2. Slot in that area is around $500K. Let’s just say he signs there for that amount.

R3 – Hudson – The slot here is around $300K. I think its going to take more than that to get him to sign. This seems like a pick the Phillies may have normally made much later, but took him here so that when they have to go over the slot recommendation, the number is only 100% higher than slot as opposed to 500% higher, if that makes sense. It looks better to give a guy $600K when the slot recommendation is $300K than to give a guy $600K when the recommendation is less than $25K. Let’s just assume he signs for $500K just to keep things simple.

At this point we’d be at $1M for our first two picks.

I’m going to assume that Buschini and Way will sign for below slot deals. The combined slot for these two picks is about $330K, I think Buschini gets slightly less than slot, and Way a bit less than slot. Lets just say Buschimi gets $175K (slot is $200K) and Way gets $100K (slot is around $150K), so add $275K to the tally and you’re at about $1.3M.

I don’t think Inch is going to sign. Its just a hunch. But that brings us to the biggest item in the draft, Brodie Colvin. As I mentioned in yesterday’s writeup, Colvin was ranked in the 40’s overall, which makes him a sandwich round talent. The signing bonus in the comp round is somewhere between $750K-1M. I think its going to take the upper end of that number to keep Colvin away from college. He’s a power arm, there isn’t much to not like about his profile. If the team had its first round pick at 27 and took him there, then offered him the $1.2M slot recommendation, I think its a fair bet he’d have turned pro. If they offer him $1M at this point, I think he signs. And if he does, then you can essentially consider him our first round pick. Just for giggles, let’s put a $1M tag on him, assume its offered, and assume its accepted. It could take less, but lets just assume. That brings the money spent to $2.3M.

Singleton is another guy that it seems they’ll make a run at. He’s not as tough a sign, though he’ll still take much more than the $100-125K you’d normally give an 8th round pick. Let’s just assume $500K here, which is what Pettibone got last year as a supplemental 3rd round pick. That’s $2.8M spent.

Altherr seems like a good bet to head to college, and then you’ve got a bunch of college guys in Zied, Barnes, and Hernandez, so its a nominal amount of money. They’d still be close to or right under $3M spent. A bunch of folks here seem excited by the Sasaki pick, I’m indifferent because I still don’t know enough to form an opinion. Sam Houston State isn’t exactly the University of Texas in terms of college commitments, but it gives him options. Is he a $250K type guy? That would be a 3rd/4th round type bonus. I’ll be adventurous and just assume its $250K, which seems high. That would bring us to, for round numbers sake, $3.3M.

So, if we stop for a second in this theoretical exercise, lets recap. I’ve spent $3.3M of the team’s money and signed

Dugan, Hudson, Buschini, Way, Colvin, Singleton, Zied, Barnes, Hernandez and Sasaki. I’m assuming that Inch (6th round) and Altherr (9th round) are going to school. So that’s 11 of the first 13 picks signed for $3.3M, or about $700K less than the team spent on their entire 2007 draft.

Now we have Jake Stewart. Stewart is another premium talent, he’s taken in the range where the Phillies have busted slot before (Sampson was a 12th round pick), and the team was heavily linked to him prior to the draft. There have been conflicting reports on him. The latest I’ve read is that he really wants to play baseball, and that’s where his future is. So that opens the door slightly. But he’s not going to come cheap, and its going to take a mid 6 figure deal (in my opinion) to even get him thinking. Does the team spend $750K on him in the 14th round? That would bring them up to their budget spent on the 2007 draft, but still well below the total outlay last year. I won’t make a decision here yet.

Hyatt will cost pennies (or nothing) as a 5th year senior. That brings us to the last big talking point of the draft, Andrew Susac. He was ranked #112 overall in the country, so obviously he’s going to be expensive, if hes even signable. He’s committed to Oregon State, a quality program, so its going to take big money to sign him away. Does he justify a mid 6 figures bonus? We’ll come back to that in a minute.

Our remaining 33 picks are, for the most part, uneventful in my opinion. The college guys they want to sign will be cheap as they are seniors, with the exception of a guy like Brodie Greene who still has eligibility left. The JuCo guys are slightly different, they have options. Chad Poe, taken last year, got $100K late to turn pro. Are any of our JuCo guys worth that type of deal? I can’t say, but if one of them is signed, it will be in that neighborhood, but more likely less. So if you evaluate these 33 picks, you’ve got 3 interesting flier types (Kleven, Gelalich, and Bollinger), but none of them will command near the money that it will take to land Stewart or Susac.

I paused at Stewart and the money spent (theoretically) was $3.3M. If you just add $200K total spent on the college guys/JuCo guys in rounds 18-50, that brings the total to about $3.5M. Then you address Stewart, Susac and then the trio of guys taken at the end. You can hit a home run, sign both Stewart and Susac, and then grab one of the high school guys in that last trio. Or sign one of Stewart/Susac and one of the late trio. Or sign none of them.

I think, looking at everything in general terms and comparing it to the last two years, the team could afford to sign the guys mentioned, plus Stewart and Susac, plus one of the late trio, and still be under the money they spent last year. I think priority #1 is figuring out a way to get Colvin to sign, even if it means a seven figure bonus.

As picks are signed, we can check back on this thought exercise and see what things look like. I’m not going to make any firm judgments on the draft until after the deadline. If the team uses its money and signs the premium talents it took, there’s a chance for this draft to be as good as last year’s. Last year was a perfect storm, lots of picks, lots of quality talent signed, and even some of the fringe guys (Stutes) having big years this year too. Its not really fair to expect every draft to be a home run, but if the Phillies don’t sign Colvin, Stewart or Susac, then I think it has to be looked at as a big missed opportunity. If they open their wallets and the players just decide school is too much to pass up (Gerrit Cole and the Yankees last year), then there’s not much you can do. But I do think a full court press is needed here, and I hope the Phillies take full advantage of being able to tell draftees “this is a lot of money we’re offering you to one day play for the World Champions”.

Check back in on August 17th and we’ll see what happens.

100 thoughts on “Day 3/Final draft thoughts

  1. Good summary of the thought process. If I were to guess, the Phillies see last year’s budget as a little bit of an aberration due to the extra picks. I would hope their internal thinking starts with a $4M minimum, though I would be shocked if they went past $5M.

    I don’t think they even think of Stewart unless they can’t get a few others done. In that respect I am thinking that if they could not sign both Colvin and Hudson, they would have extra cash and the desire to add a young CF.

  2. if we can sign 3 of 4 of colvin, stewart, susac, and singleton, then this will be a fantastic draft for a team that didnt have a first rounder and spent their first 2 picsk on players that could very well be garbage

  3. I’m reserving judgment… mlb draft is a completely different animal than the NBA or NFL draft. Very rarely do we have visibility to any of these players. That said, I’m interested to begin to identify how our draft strategy has changed with new leadership.

    James can you give any insight on that? Thanks very much for a great job; and poignant opinions.

  4. an absolutely tremendous write up PP. thank you. I am assuming you’re goin to have a listing of the players and their signing bonus like u did last year???

    I remember the mayhem that went down when Pettibone was heard to have signed via some USC website (or something)

    Not that you have all the time in the world, and i think this is of course asking a lot (possibly) but maybe also having 2 columns on what slot is for 2009 added and b/c of the ‘budget’ you just essentially outlined, another column of “red/black” vs what you just outlined the person getting.

    that way based on your #s, slot and last yrs budget we could see how much money is remaining, expected etc for “PLAYER X”

    REGARDLESS of what you decide to do: i thank you for your unbelievable efforts and dedication to the Phils farm system and this website.

    thank you

  5. I don’t think the strategy is all that different. Most teams leave the majority of the decisions based on picks to the Scouting Director. Basically, and this is my understanding of the general process, I have no direct knowledge of the Phillies individual situation.

    The GM has final veto power over picks. If he wants a player, he’ll make it happen. But the Scouting Director essentially runs the draft. The Scouting Director relies on his area scouts and his crosscheckers. If an area scout likes a guy, say a guy from Washington, then the Northwest crosschecker will try and see the guy play and send in a report, and then that report gets compared to the report from the area guy. The area guy then tries to gauge the signability of the player, he reports back with a number, and it goes from there. If the Scouting Director wants to take player X with the 27th pick, the slot recommendation is $1.2M, and the kid wants $2M, the SD then goes to the GM and explains the situation. The GM then needs to get approval from whoever sets the draft budget/deals with the idea of going over slot, which could be the President or CEO of the team. He then relays “yes or no” to the GM, who then talks to the SD about the pick.

    That’s the general process. Some GM’s are hands on, others aren’t. It seems Gillick was not involved much in the draft at all. Arbuckle was an assistant GM, his big philosophy it seemed was a preference for tall, projectable righthanded pitchers. Wolever certainly believes in that as well, the team targeted a number of those guys in this draft.

    So to answer your specific question, I don’t think the philosophy changed at all this year with Amaro taking over as GM and Arbuckle leaving. Wolever remains in charge of the draft, most of the scouts stayed I think, so not much changed at all.

  6. It seems like there strategy this draft is similar to last years draft take projects at the top of the draft easy signable players. And than draft top tier talent in the middle of the draft who are considered hard to sign. This will be another good draft I believe Colvin’s got to be a must sign and he will be the star of this draft class I would also like to see the phillies sign Susac.

  7. The Phillies have an opportunity with the increased budget to stock their farm system for years to come…what I do not understand about the process, and this is only an observation: If a team gets two Major League Players/starters out of each draft class it is deemed successful…why not draft high ceiling players across the board, bust slot, and if successful, you have good quality players making league minimum for 6 years if they make it to the show. We are paying more money to Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins not to play this year then we will end up spending on all of our drafted prospects last year, this year, next year & into 2011. Let Brett Myers walk next year and spend his 12 million on 12 1 million dollar studs in the next draft.

  8. James i know the draft is your baby, and you wear ur emotions on ur sleeve, and make quick heart felt reactions to picks…I want to now compliment you on a fantastic outline of how you (hope, me too)see this unfolding…Kudos to you for taking a deep breath and absorbing the draft as a whole and analyzing the picks and the money process wonderfully

  9. PP: I just read your DAY 2 breakdown and the charts you had there were fantastic. Addin those to this yrs “sign slot” chart would be a big help (to me at least)

    I love your write ups, and info. thanks for it

  10. PP: Thanks again for all of your hard work on this site. I’ve been a lurker here for a while, and this site was the best spot for info on the draft this year. Thanks to you and all who post.

  11. So of Colvin/Susac/Stewart I take it most want those players signed in the order?

  12. Thanks for the writeups. Even when some of us respectfully disagree, it is nice to read some informed opinions.

    Unrelated to the Phillies, but I’m glad to see the Seattle Mariners draft Mark Angelo from East Stroudsburg U. It is extremely rare to see a player taken from my school.

  13. James, did Keith steal this idea from you???

    Listening to Keith Law yesterday.. he said that he thinks the Nubinals should simply offer high on Strasburg, and put the pressure on him.. Saying we’ll give you ‘x’ million if you sign today, and for every day you wait it goes down half a million dollars.. Do you think this is a good idea? Is it practical?
    Rob Neyer

    I suspect that Scott Boras would not respond positively to such a ploy.

  14. Raul again shows he’s worth the 1 pick and if we sign the big names we drafted, baseball shows the uselessness of having a 1 pick. Colvin/Susac/Stewart. Our real draft right there.

  15. Raul again shows he’s worth the 1 pick and if we sign the big names we drafted, baseball shows the uselessness of having a 1 pick. Colvin/Susac/Stewart. Our real draft right there.

  16. Law has voiced that idea a few times over the last month. Yesterday wasn’t the first time I saw that from him…Great draft writeup. Lots of useful info.

  17. some info on Angelle. he was picked in the 13th round by texas in 2006.

    Angelle righted a somewhat erratic season when he had his best outing in a Southland Conference Tournament elimination game May 22 against UT-Arlington in Corpus Christi.Angelle gave up five hits and one run in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-3 victory. He also struck out five and walked one.

    “That’s when he became the Kevin Angelle we always thought he could be,” said baseball scout Steve Cohen, who followed Angelle since before his senior season of high school at Bridge City.

    With a fastball in the 90-92 miles per hour range, a changeup, curve and a slider developed this season, the 6-foot-3, 195-poundAngelle said he feels confident to join the professional ranks.

    That confidence showed against UTA.

    “He took ownership of the game and really competed,” said Cohen, in his sixth year as the Phillies regional scout. “He wasn’t going to give in. It was must-win for the team to go on. A great effort when they needed him.”

  18. PP,

    Thanks for all the hard work and dedication. I tend to think you’re a realist when it comes to the Phillies, but you painted quite an optimistic picture on how things could potentially unfold going forward. It could be a very interesting few weeks to say that least.

    If the Phillies managed to add Colvin, Singleton, Susac, Stewart, Dugan, Hudson, and perhaps one of the high school lefties…boy…an all of a sudden boring draft becomes quite an addition of young talent.

    Adding a guy like Colvin…boy…that’d be a treat. People get giddy with Knapp these days; Colvin, I think, is better than Knapp out of high school ceteris paribus.

  19. Small correction, PP, Hissey is from Emory University in Atlanta. Great write up as always.


  20. James, Do you think in the next week or 2 you could try to arrange a QandA with one of the talking heads like you have in the past? I would love to hear their opinions on the draft we’ve had and the progress our prospects have made so far this season.

  21. PP. is the brave pick 658 james webber the same kid who didn’t sign with us last year?

  22. Cory Wine is Bobbies grand son out of oklahoma, set career highs at pennstate for homruns 6, only got caught once stealing , played in summer plains coastal league and hit 298, bats fifth for pennstate. seems he plays only first, and had some good offense numbers, but don’t know what kind of Schedule penn state plays?

  23. Penn State’s schedule is pretty weak, mostly against Big Ten opponents. Occasionally they play a Rutgers, Bucknell or Lehigh. They did travel to Austin for a four game series against #1 and lost four games by a combined score of 25-4.

  24. PP: Awesome writeup – this clearly takes a lot of thought and time and is very well laid-out.

    The only differences that I would have would be in the analyses of Hudson, Inch and Susac.

    One article quotes a source close to Hudson that if he is drafted in rounds 2-4, he will sign. To me, that indicates that he would be willing to settle for round 3 money and may not cost much above slot, if at all. Savings anywhere the Phils can get it will help with Colvin.

    According to an article today about Inch, he seems to be suprised to have gone so early – he may be more inclined to sign, and may not cost much more than slot (obviously this is pure speculation on my part).

    Susac, meanwhile, I have no hope of signing unless Colvin doesn’t sign (two guys who may want 1st-round money). TPTB wouldn’t want to face the commish’s office twice for those types of contracts unfortunately.

  25. My naive guess: you’ll pay for Colvin, lose Susac and Stewart.

    Angelle was a big deal once upon a time – on the BA top 200 two drafts or so ago.

    “is the brave pick 658 james webber the same kid who didn’t sign with us last year?” Yes. Weber had kind of an off year.

  26. What to me is the most interesting thing is how a kid like Susac. who has a weak bat, can turn down 500 thousand or more to go to school. I have been going over the draft and a lot of these kids go to college, and don’t do a thing, take the money and start out life with no mortage payment, can you imagine not to have to worry about mortage payment , if you put that money in a account and let them take the mortgage out each month.

  27. This is the article that Comack15 is referring to, I believe:

    He’s definitely going to sign, and I think his comments in there (like Comack said) indicate it will be for slot or very close to it. We also get more clarity on the issues that were raised about his maturity – he was suspended from the football team for breaking team rules. That being said, it is very clear from the article that he likes baseball a lot and wants to be a major leaguer. Coming away from that article, I’m rooting for him now. Sounds like a guy that’s overcome some problems to get to where he is.

    He’s playing summer ball with the Vancouver Cardinals, but it looks like their website is kaput so no updates on how he’s hitting. Hopefully it won’t matter soon and he’ll report to the GCL Phils.

  28. I was just reading Mike Stanton’s scouting report form 2007. Him and Dugan have a lot things in common. Stanton was a standout football player and had slightly more power however. He was considered a project but had loads of potential. His bat was a question mark and struggled against good pitching.

    He obviously worked hard to figure out pitchers and now is one of the top prospects in that game.

    Dugan’s attitude leads me to believe he can figure stuff out quick as well. I’m looking forward to seeing him progress.

  29. It will be interesting to see what the Phillies do with Buschini. Although he is a senior in age, he has another year of college eligibility because of a medical redshirt in 2008. Thus, for negotiating purposes he’s more like a college junior and thus might get nearly all of slot.

  30. Here’s an article from CSN that has some quotes from a bunch of our draftees:

    Summary of the interesting points:

    Singleton’s coach guesses he’ll sign for less than he originally wanted. Apparently Singleton is friendly with Gose too, so that should work to the Phils’ advantage.

    Hernandez projects himself as either back of the rotation or a lefty specialist. Hey, at least he’s realistic.

    Sasaki is in the upper 80s with movement on his fastball and has a slurvy breaking pitch. Sounds like his competition was weak.

    Stewart’s coach thinks he’s going to Stanford.

  31. From the Q&A with him (linked to the article) Singleton sounds like a level-headed kid…Hope he signs.

  32. re: bruschini

    He has the chance to return to the Mustangs, but — wearing the solid red Phillies offering during interviews at Baggett on Wednesday — Buschini seemed all but certain he was packing up for a minor league assignment in the next few weeks.

    “I’m ready to go play pro ball,” said Buschini, who batted .422 with 11 home runs and 61 RBI and was 13 for 15 on stolen base attempts this season. “I had a good time at Cal Poly. I’ve been here four years.”

  33. Article on Kleven:

    Sounds like the Phils are treating him like a summer follow but that he wants to sign. He’s playing summer ball for the same team that Scott Mathieson played on: Go here for the team’s stats:

    He looks like he is unhittable and wild: 2-0 with 20.33IP, 7H, 4R, 2ER, 18BB (!!), 23K, 0.69ERA

  34. From John Sickels, interesting note on Buschini that the consensus is he can hit.

    Philadelphia: Second round pick Kelly Dugan headlines the draft class. He is toolsy, fast and strong, but the California prep outfielder is considered rather raw and was considered likely to attend college at Pepperdine before going this early. Third round pick Kyrell Hudson, out of high school in Washington, is even toolsier. . .and even rawer than Dugan; there are also concerns about his work ethic. He could be excellent, but he could also fizzle out in A-ball. Fourth round Cal Poly second baseman Adam Buschini put up excellent college statistics, and most scouts believe he can be a decent hitter. Fifth round Washington State southpaw Matt Way has a mediocre fastball, but his outstanding changeup made him very successful in college. Brody Colvin could be a bargain in the seventh round, if the Phillies can sign him. He has an LSU scholarship and was expected to go as high as the supplemental round. If he signs, he would help make up for the lack of a first round pick. This draft is long on tools and short on polish, typical for the Phillies in recent years.

  35. Love the work PP, also love the work of the commenters digging up additional information.

  36. What southern boys on our team can talk him out of it? Maybe Myers?

    Last year we had Hamels talk to Pettibone and that really seemed to influence him, so hopefully they can get somebody to talk to him(and the money being right).

    Maybe Hamels could do it again.

    I would also like the Phillies to make a fair offer too Stewart so when he comes out he might be more inclined to sign with us.

  37. I’m not worried about that Colvin article. All of his comments were from after Tuesday’s portion when he wasn’t picked through pick 110 or so. The Phillies know what it will take to get him signed because they talked to him on Tuesday night. The family could not be reached for comment by the reporter after he was selected. I think it will take between 1 and 1.5. I think the Phillies might be willing to do that but that’s something you do after you get the guys who will take slot in.

  38. Squire or other:

    Not that im upset or anything, but I trying to get the whole grasp of this draft thing: So I just mess around to see how the kids that the Phils drafted in previous years are currently doing: Workman at Texas (College W.S), Coy (who knows, left Ariz St) and others. Led me to KEON BROXTON whom we took at #886 last yr- I’m seeing he was drafted in the 3RD RD from JuCo….

    #1) am i mistaken
    #2) what are your thoughts?? big miss on our end? not a big deal?? he’s goin to go back to JuCo??

    thx to whomever

  39. Steve (Wilmington): My favorite team (the Phillies) seemed to manage the draft so that they wouldn’t go overslot with their first 4 picks (Rounds 2-5) but then might go over slot in later rounds. Is there something to this? I believe they will break slot in this draft. Does it matter to the Commissioner when (or where) you break slot?

    Jim Callis: I think the Phillies are going to be aggressive. MLB doesn’t want clubs busting slot, so where they do doesn’t matter, though it gets more expensive closer to the top of the draft. And I don’t agree on rounds 2-5, as I think OF Kyrell Hudson (third round) is going to get an above-slot deal. I think you’re right about them busting slot in the later rounds, with guys like Louisiana HS RHP Brody Colvin (seventh round), California HS 1B Jonathan Singleton (eighth) and California HS C Andrew Susac (16th).

  40. Sportssavant I have been doing the same thing, and in most cases the hs kids go to college and don’t get anybetter from the one I have seen, Workman we all know had signablility issue or he would have most likely gone in the first round, or early second, why did broxton move up ,so much, is a mystery to me ,

  41. Hey all,

    I’m bored on a Friday night, waiting for the BIG CLUB. So I’m doing some random stuff, like trying to find the best place to get info on some of the more ‘LIKEABLE’ draft picks we have.

    after reading a bunch on our draft picks, I thought that I’d search for a Univ of Kentucky forum that talks about their incoming recruits-especially after we found a similar site helpful in the “pettibone” signing LAST YEAR.

    He is one for the Univ of Kentucky, of which the Phils signed TWO of their pitchers.

  42. Broodie Green drafted in round 37 is a college ulitily man he played 4 different position . hit under 300 why do you draft this kid, please tell me.

  43. Because Williamsport needs a guy who can step in and play 4 different positions in case of injury or days off or things of that nature.

  44. Ducky this is why I will never understand the draft. I would take a high school kid who can run over this 21 year old ulitily guy, I would never draft older college kids, unless they were almost ready for the big club, you can always get retreads for org fillers off the waiver wire. just pass on the choice instead of these types, that’s if I was in charge.

  45. PP I know but to me it makes no sense to waste a pick on kids like this, that’s why I have so much trouble understanding the process.

  46. well, then maybe an IQ test would lay out the terms of your confusion. Ducky hit the nail on the head. Org. filler is way cheaper with slot-signed college kids. It’s the truth and has been the truth for years.

  47. Sometimes those org fillers make it too the bigs.

    Also a lot of HS players are going to want a decent amount of money. Even $25,000 is a lot more then say 1-2K when it’s all said and done.

    Another reason is that they might have 25 spots to fill. If you don’t take some guys that you know you can sign, you’re going to have holes on a roster somewhere.

  48. I just thought you could always find guys to fill hole. Look at reading and L. V. they got a lot of org fillers we didn’t draft.

  49. The team isn’t going to spend 25 million every year drafting every high ceiling High Schooler. They just aren’t. They have a budget and they draft accordingly.

  50. mikemike, this is the general rule.

    As I mentioned, teams have 4 full season affiliates (23-25 guys on the roster) and then at least 2 short season teams (25 guys on each roster). That means that come late June when the short season leagues start, there will be around 150 players in the organization, more if you count guys injured in extended spring training rebahhing injuries, guys signed out of Latin America who aren’t ready to play for a team yet, etc etc.

    Every year, teams take guys in the June draft with the intention of having them fill out the back end of their minor league rosters. You can’t realistically have 25 legit prospects on every affiliate at every level. Elite prospects need playing time. Gose and Collier need to play every day, you can’t have them playing only 2-3 days a week because you have 10 other prospects that need to get AB’s. The ideal situation, one that really no team in baseball even has, is that you’d have a legit prospect at the 8 positions on the diamond, 5 legit pitching prospects, and then 2-3 legit relief prospects at every affiliate. But add that up. That’s like 95 legit prospects in your system. No team has that.

    Teams draft guys they know won’t be legit major leaguers because they want their legit prospects to get to play against college players with experience. 4 year seniors who really don’t have the stuff to get out above average major leaguers can still dominate 18 year old rookies, and that acts as a teaching tool. These 4 year seniors and 5th year seniors turn pro because they love baseball and just want to put off having a “real job” for as long as they can, and sometimes, with persistence (Coste), you get a shot in the bigs and you make the most of it.

    The Phillies, like most every team, aim to take legit talents in the first 10 rounds, a bunch of guys to fill out the numbers in the middle and late rounds, and then a few flier type picks at the end of the draft. It makes sense. Complete sense.

  51. Brodie Greene batted .344/.398/,566 while playing in one of the best baseball conferences in the country. Oh and by the way, he also took a fastball to the face in March and missed 4 games having multiple mouth surgeries and then had to wear a mask when he came back. Seems like a decent use of a 37th round pick to me, especially since we used the 40th round pick just so that Rube’s nephew did not suffer the indignity of being drafted by a major league team other than the Phillies.

  52. the link to the UK message board about inch that sportsavant said he throws 87-91. and that sounds much better than mid 80s. they also seem to think that he’ll sign

  53. johnny coy plays basketball and baseball for witchita state, and dicky drives him to school every day.

  54. It seem last year we had guys sign fast. so far only dugan, are they just waiting to announce signing, Can’t believe the college kids aren’t signed , they don’t have any bargaining chips?

  55. Nunez out of franford seems interesting, eighteen year old freshman in high school, can’t speak english, came here to play ball, only uses wood bat, maybe he becomes something, its like taking a kid out of the latin market, if I read this story right, but my I.Q. is low according to some on here.

  56. “mikemike Says: What to me is the most interesting thing is how a kid like Susac. who has a weak bat, can turn down 500 thousand or more to go to school.”

    WEAK bat? Have you been misinterpreting some scouting reports? Susac was the best hitter (.443/8/34) on a Jesuit High School of California team stacked with DI signees, that won back-to-back DI Section championships in a tough California section. In addition, Susac simply scorched the ball in several high-profile wood bat tourneys throughtout the country in the past year (Minneapolis Metrodome, North Carolina, Jupiter Fl, Aflac All-American) against some of the pitching that just went in the first round….which really got him on the draft radar in the first place.
    This coupled with the fact that he was rated by several scouts as the BEST defensive catcher in this draft, college included, and $500K seems very conservative.
    In fact, if his pricetag to bypass Oregon State wasn’t so high, odds are high that he would have been a 1st round supplemental pick, 2nd round at worst, so IF the Phils are going to lure him away from college, my guess is after they sign a few more of their upper round picks, they’re going to
    have to come at Susac with the money that would have been commensurate with his overall baseball america,, and pgcrosschecker rankings.
    In fact, I am going to keep an eye on the results, and if he signs for less than a million, I will be stunned.

  57. I thought that his bat was the reason he was rated behind the other catcher stassi I believe is how it spelled. I read they weren’t sure if his bat would come around at the next level. but defensively he was terrifc. Maybe I missunderstood. but to turn down the money he could get to go to school and maybe never get another high offer to me is still crazy.

  58. Some guys just aren’t ready to play baseball and focus on baseball 24/7 for 9 months a year. Some kids want to experience college. Some kids want to play college baseball, enjoy what comes with being a high profile college athlete, and then worry about playing professionally 3 years later. If hes confident in his ability, he’ll get picked in the first 2 rounds in 3 years and get a huge bonus. Maybe his family wants him to attend school.

    Its just “well, you play baseball, you should want to turn pro for whatever we give you”

  59. PP Maybe I didn’t explain it right. My point is it’s hard to me, to think that at a young age you can turn down a lot of money, to play a game we all love, you can always go to school and with the money he will get now, it being a sure thing verus a chance, just doesn’t seem smart. he can yes become a higher choice, but also can go to college and do nothing, now if the phillies come in and offer 100.000 yes go to school but if its in the five hundred range that’s a lot,

  60. “mikemike Says: I thought that his bat was the reason he was rated behind the other catcher stassi I believe is how it spelled. I read they weren’t sure if his bat would come around at the next level.”

    Yes, this is true, and there are some concerns about his hitting “approach”….but nobody has said he has a “weak” bat. Also similarly, Stassi was universally pegged as a mid-1st rounder, yet fell to the A’s in the 4rd round because of his own salary demands. Stassi has committed to UCLA, and wanted $3M to bypass college. The A’s knew this, and STILL took him in the 4th round, so knowing Beane is not stupid, one can assume they made an agreement with Stassi north of $2M, or they absolutely would not have drafted him.
    With that said, I PERSONALLY heard two area scouts that had Susac rated higher than Stassi.
    Again, if Susac ends up signing and isn’t the Phillies biggest signing bonus of 2009, I will eat my hat, and will follow it with interest.

    You are spot on. There are many different dynamics involved as to whether a kid signs and goes pro, or goes on to the college experience, and it’s not just money. It will be very interesting to see how this all shakes out.

  61. I wonder why they aren’t announcing any signing of the lower choices, it seems last year they signed guys right away.

  62. mike, it just doesn’t work the way you think it does. Some guys just do not want to turn pro out of high school, and its for various reasons. Last year the Red Sox offered Alex Meyer a reported $2M to turn pro, that’s top 10 money, but his mother went to Kentucky and was affiliated with the school I believe, and she was adamant that he went to Kentucky as well. He turned down first round money because his commitment to his family was more important than the money.

    For some guys, its not just about money. If Susac is confident in his abilities, then he’ll be fine in 3 years if he doesn’t sign. Even if he never gets drafted that high again, or offered that much money, he’ll have an education from a quality school and he’ll have got to experience college like most people his age.

  63. pp Thanks I know what you are saying, but I think it’s because as you mention Meyer turning down two million at 18 years old. to me as a person who doesn’t have money, it just seems hard. I guess some people come from money and it isn’t a big thing, like dugan, but to me two million I take and go to college later, if my family wants me to really go. It’s just my opinion, but I respect your explanation and respect any kid who turns down that money to make his family happy, or to get the college experience.

  64. Skipping college to play a game that you might end up washing out of after 2 years has always seemed like a terrible choice to me. If it wasn’t for the fact that college coaches tend to ruin kids, I’d say that they should pull out the same rules on the draft that the NFL has. three years of colege. 2 million is a lot of money to turn down, but 2 million will only last so long. and if you wash out of baseball before you make it to the bigs (like so many do) then turning down four or five years of free college just makes you a complete idiot. that, mikemike, is why pro athletes go to college first. in case it doesn’t work out.

    don’t think of it as turning down a million dollars, think of it as free college, an education for a real job, and then a shot at baseball again.

  65. jpd, while I agree with what you, PP, and others are saying, your monetary argument is very weak. So, a kid takes the two million, washes out in two years, and then he gets to go back to school and pay his own way. Oh shucks, he will only have ~1.85 million left. Sure, it is not a free education, but the kid would come out the back end for the better. If a kid decides to go to school over taking the money, that is great, and I applaud them for doing what they feel is the right thing. However, a monetary argument cannot be made for going to school over taking two million dollars.

  66. Plus if the player goes back to school he could concentrate on academics.

  67. Jpd Going to college is great. but four years of not making a dime, verus 2 million, to start life and go to college in the off season. no mortrage, and at 100.000 a year to start that twenty years of work. I don’t think its stupid like you stated to take the money,and still go to college. And most of these kids get the team to pay for there college. And most college athlethes never graduate check out the rate. your monterary argument is not strong, take the money still go to college what is wrong with that, unless you don’t need two million then god bless them. I still say its because I dont have money,maybe That’s why I think this way . take that money put it in the bank at say 5% what would you get in interest every year without touching the princepal about 100.000 interest how many of you at 18 are making that?

  68. I am going over the picks. and a couple of times you will see for example brian feekin, nebraska has him going there, saying he is from a high school they have a pipeline too and so on, but he never gets here instead winds up a some Iowa college, What happens to these committes, do they not have the grades or not make the team?

  69. If every team drafted high potential high schoolers with all of their 50 picks and paid them 2 mil to skip college, that’s 100 mil each year. Most teams only sign 30 and I’m sure some of those players wouldn’t need that much convincing, but even at 500k that’s still a lot of money. The other factor teams have to consider is how much time and money it costs to develop these players. Another reason college seniors are more appealing is they don’t require as much coaching and if you pick the right ones, they might even help your high profile guys. Crash Davis?
    There’s also something to be said for the college environment and being the big man on campus. Bypassing college suddenly makes a game you love become your job and some kids aren’t ready for that change no matter how much money you offer. Lastly, a lot of high school players aren’t ready to give up pitching and hitting and get to do both in college.

  70. Sig, the college enviroment, you still get that you don’t play baseball year round, second, the biggest point to me is even at 500.000 put that in the bank and you never have a mortgage payment if you don’t make it and get your degree. I would love to not have to pay my mortages for thirty years, its a great start to life. or you can open a business, if you get your degree and come out without being drafted high again, then what go looking for a job with no money , My son in law back in 92 was getting looked at by the mets, he had a tryout before the draft then had to have surgery, and he couldn;t throw , he was a catcher, now he is a waiter struggling to make ends meet, got his 2 year degree but just like doing what he is doing, but, some weeks are great others you struggle.

  71. mikemike, I think you are just going to have to learn to accept that the MLB draft is what it is. What you are proposing is not realistic, nor is it ever going to happen. It is nice in theory, and that is about it. I think we all understand your thoughts on the subject, and that it may be time to move on.

  72. Another thing to consider, a lot of these kids would not have the opportunity to go to better colleges if not for their baseball abilities. Recall the opening chapter of Moneyball, where Stanford tells Billy Beane no thanks when he opts to play pro ball.

  73. Alan that is not true take the money and the club will pay your college. its in most contracts. if not you pay for your education,

  74. alan was pointing out, altho “some” contracts include the educational fees, that the same school is most likely not the same option for a player after he goes pro…just cuz they got into stanford on scholarship, most likely their grades alone will not be enough to get them back in afterwards, on their own merit

  75. So the college will black ball them even if they want to pay.Or they don’t have the grades and the school will cheat to get them in, if they accept the scholarship. That’s some great higher learning institutes

  76. no not necessarily cheating, but college athletes dont “always” have the same educational requirements that just the plain old student does…so a fair amount of these scholarship athletes, you can be assured, do not have the grade requirements to get into some of the elite academic institutions on their grades alone..(i.e. stanford)

  77. mikemike —
    Going to college in the off-season is easier said than done. The minor league ST starts in March, well before second semester is ended. Let’s say team allows you to wait until start of season. Still a lot of 2nd semester left on 2 April. So if you’re a HS kid, you are good to go on 2nd semester only in your freshman year, where you will presumably be assigned to Williamsport. If you are a really good prospect, you just missed out on the chance to start your first full season in low A. Once you’re a sophomore and beyond, you are out of luck, you choose college 2nd semester or minor leagues. If you choose college, maybe the team lets you start when the semester is over around end of May, but you are starting far behind the others.

    Fall semester would seem ok, except the team will want you to go to FIL when your freshman year is supposed to be starting. In later seasons, you will forego the opportunity to play in Arizona Fall League, Hawaii, or winter ball in Latin America.

    You trade off a lot of either school or baseball to try to do both simultaneously. Few HS kids seem to do this.

  78. I didn’t know that our 5th pick, Matt Way, set the WSU record for strikeouts in a season. Can anyone tell me what kinda stuff this kid has??? I heard he’s got a great change, but I don’t know much else

  79. Update on Susac, playing for the Corvallis Knights summer league team…still acclimating to this level of pitching, but the promise is definitely showing!
    Colwell advanced to second on the play, stole third and scored on catcher Andrew Susac’s monster home run to left, the Knights first homer at home this season.
    “There was a man on third and with a 3-1 count I figured he would throw me a fastball,” Susac said. “I was looking for something up in the zone to get elevated and get the runner to score. I swung hard and things worked out. These guys are saying this place is a graveyard – I don’t think so, it’s possible.”

    And from his very first game with them last week:
    Future Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac made his debut a memorable one as Susac threw out three would-be base stealers and delivered the game-winning hit, a bases loaded RBI single.

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