Keith Law with a draft quick hit

2009 Draft

From his latest blog entry

The Rays, Royals and Phillies are all heavy on Rocky Mountain outfielder Jake Stewart, either in the second or third rounds.

BA has Stewart ranked 74th overall. Hes a freakish two way athlete with a questionable hit tool. Sounds like a Phillies pick 😦

33 thoughts on “Keith Law with a draft quick hit”

  1. Ughh. It wouldn’t be the worst guy, but I would prefer somebody else. Hopefully there is someone better left at that spot.

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  2. Maybe he’ll already be off the board…screams Phillies pick.

    Though Wolever has had a good run of late so its hard to criticize him too too much.

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  4. With no 1st round pick, will the Phillies take some scholarship commitment players, offer them above slot money and convince them to go professional??

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  5. on BA Prospect chat today:
    Tom (NJ): Has Michael Taylor bridged the gap with Dominic Brown, or is Brown still well ahead of Taylor in terms of prospect status?

    J.J. Cooper: Still got to go with Brown, although Taylor’s quite an impressive prospect in his own right. Brown is matching Taylor in production hit for hit, and he’s doing it with a better set of tools. Brown is better in right field than Taylor has a slightly better hit tool and is a better runner. Plus his hit tool projects to be even better than Taylor’s.

    Tom (NJ): The Phillies seem to have many players having great success this year. Has their system moved up in the rankings from the pre-season?

    Matthew Eddy: That’s a fair assessment. Players like Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Jason Knapp and (don’t forget) J.A. Happ have really raised their profiles with their early play, answering questions that may have kept their prospect status in check.

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  6. Also BA Prospect hot sheet

    No. 6 MICHAEL TAYLOR, RF
    PHILLIES
    Team: Double-A Reading (Eastern)
    Age: 23
    Why He’s Here: .500/.500/.750 (14-for-24), 1 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 10 R, 6 BB, 5 SO, 1 HBP, 1-for-3 SB
    The Scoop: You could make a darn good argument that Taylor and high Class A right fielder Dominic Brown form the best duo of outfield prospects in any organization. While Brown got the acclaim as Philadelphia’s top prospect entering the season, Taylor continues to force his way up the rankings by barreling through the EL. He’s now up to .351/.412/.615 in 49 games with 10 home runs, 17 walks and 23 strikeouts. In other words, that’s one heck of a fifth-round pick.
    2009 Stats

    No. 10 KYLE DRABEK, RHP
    PHILLIES
    Team: Double-A Reading (Eastern)
    Age: 21
    Why He’s Here: 2-0, 0.00, 16 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 11 SO
    Drabek pitched his way into Double-A and kept right on rolling in his first start for Reading, tossing seven shutout innings while allowing just three hits. It looks like he’s back—and better than ever—after the Phillies tweaked his mechanics following last year’s Tommy John surgery. Drabeck always has been tabbed as a guy who would rise quickly, and his success in the Florida State League (4-1, 2.48, 74 strikeouts in 61 2/3 innings) seems to be translating to the next level as well.
    2009 Stats

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  7. The Phillies have done such a good job at the major league level and in their minor league system that I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

    But we will never forget Tim Moss…

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  10. Why outfielder first? It seems like that’s one of our org. strengths. Show me some corner infielders.

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  11. Not really what I’m hoping for. Can’t really field a team with 8 OFs. Too many good other good options at 75.

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  12. With a first pick at 75, we’re going to have to take a risk if we hope to grab a future star. Even another Greg Golson would be better than seven of the last ten players taken at that spot in the draft.

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  13. Also, I can not emphasize enough what a mistake it would be to avoid drafting a player at ANY position based on need.

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  14. If Renfroe is available, I really hope they take him. I love everything I read about him.

    Also, even though he won’t be available, I truly feel Bobby Borchering will be an allstar one day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sneak in to the top ten.

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  15. Re: Drafting for need. I agree in the first round but this is pick #75 and their are players are rated comparably. Right now the Phillies have so many OFs that they are struggling to find ABs for them in the lower level.

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  16. Geez,
    I am impressed with the last few years’ drafts, but another toolsy, raw outfielder when you drafted 3 last year?? Show me a guy that can play the infield that drops due to potential signability issues. We need to step up to grab someone to play the infield with tools. Other than Donald, the cupboard is bare.

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  19. Off of the top of my head, I can think of Mayberry, Taylor, Brown, Gose, and Collier as our legitimate OF prospects. Sure, it is a nice group, but I do not exactly see a logjam occuring… If Wolever and the group feel that an OF is the best prospect at 75, I have no problem with that.

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  20. Nice article in today’s Inquirer about Lakewood prospects Gose, Collier and Knapp. As I read it, I realized that the Phils will be loathe to trade any of these guys. Gose could become a 80 SB per year guy (is already doing that in Lakewood). They think Collier will put on muscle weight and gain power. And everybody knows that Knapp has tools. Each player was praised for his work ethic and character. As I’ve said before, there appears to be a very conscious effort to develop a brand of Phillies player. A type of player, who is has a certain level of maturity and is a very good and well-rounded team player and excellent teammate. It’s similar to the Steelers in football. I think it’s a fabulous idea and is the main reason why it’s unlikely you’ll ever see them sign a guy like Pedro Martinez or Manny Ramirez. They’ve got great players who are good guys (Utley, Ibanez, Howard, Hamels, etc. . . .). They specifically refuse to add divisive or selfish personalities to that mix. In fact, I think changing the personnel mix was a big factor in Burrell’s emergence from a sullen figure to a team leader.

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  21. And it’s why the team became immediately better the moment they traded Bobby Abreu, even though the loss of his statistical contributions would have lead you to believe that they would suffer immensely from his departure.

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  22. Back to being on point . . . .

    This draft well tell us a lot about how aggressive the team is going to be in going over slot to sign players with potential. If they do this consistently and draft wisely, in the long run, it will pay off.

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  23. The club has seen just how much their farm has helped them over the past couple of seasons. Stars like Utley, Howard and Hamels and great supporting cast players like Ruiz and Madson were all integral cogs in our Championship run.

    I just think the farm should always be strong. I think it’s much wiser to go out and bust slot with 500k than it is to go out and overspend 8M on a guy that could come in and not only screw up team chemistry but also play piss poor out on the field.

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  24. Catch 22 f/k/a H Man, in just two years we’ve seen the farm system go from relative obscurity and the bottom 3rd to the top 3rd.

    They should take that as a sign to keep doing what they’ve been doing in recent times.

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  25. amaro seems to be very aggressive. i expect them to draft some “hard to signs” and get them in the fold. as we have learned from this blog, their first pick isn’t often the most important.

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  26. The problem with “busting slot” to get good players is as follows:

    Almost all teams now do it. 26 teams ignored the slotting numbers for the 08 draft…I’d imagine it’ll be much the same this season. We will definitely bust slot on a couple picks and hopefully Wolever and his scouting dept will find some gems again. Knapp and Gose seem to have been great snags last year and it’ll be interesting to see where Shreve is when he comes back finally.

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  27. Well both Leandro Castro and T.J. Warren got squeezed out of Lakewood and are in extended. D’Arby Myers is down to a part time player and Damarii Saunderson got released. oung. Its easy to say all those guys stink but none of them is older than 20 which is the point of drafting them y Santana is down in Extended as well. I’d rather draft a comparably rated kid at a premium position like Catcher, SS or 3B but that’s me.

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  29. Squire, Castro, at the age of 20, put up a whopping .442 OPS in Lakewood in 2009. That is why he is no longer on Lakewood’s roster. TJ Warren had OPS’s of .527, .518, and .652 in his three professional seasons. The .652 OPS came at the age of 20 at Lakewood in ’08. And finally, D’Arby Myers had … well, I am just going to assume that was a joke. If these three players constitute a logjam, then the Phillies have a logjam at every position in the field. Also, if you were arguing for the position that the OF is crowded, why would you prefer we take a Catcher? We actually do have an abundance (if that is even possible) of catching prospects with Marson, Naughton, D’Arnaud, and Valle.

    Look, if everything is equal, then surely a prospect at a premium position is going to be better. But everything is not equal. The needs of the Phillies will surely have changed in 4-5 years when most of the ’09 prospects will be ready to contribute anyway. Also, if the Phillies feel they are deciding between a future Taylor or a future Marson, which would you prefer they take? Sure, Marson plays the more desirable defensive position, but I think we would all agree to take another Taylor and deal with the ramifications later. Finally, you also have to remember that the prospect’s defensive position and ability are both taken into account when a grade is given. So a corner outfielder with the same grade as a C, SS, or 3B will often have a better hit tool. In the end, there are just way to many factors involved to definitively say choose a “____”.

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  31. The MLB OPS average for ’08 was .749. Thus far in ’09 it is .752. That should give you some perspective.

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  32. League average OPS’s vary by league. Here’s what they look like so far.

    NL: .741
    IL: .717
    EL: .722
    FSL: .680
    SAL: .684

    The minors tend to be better leagues for pitchers, with the Florida State League being a notorious pitchers’ league. I’m surprised how much the pitching has dominated this season.

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  33. Bill: (South Jersey): Hey Keith, if you were Ruben Amaro trying to trade for a starter, rank these guys from who you would be willing to give up to guys you would want to hang on to. Happ, Bastardo, Victorino, Marson, Donald, Brown, Taylor, Carrasco, and Drabek.

    Keith Law: Happ, Marson, and Carrasco would all be guys I’d shop, and probably Donald just because I have no spot for him. I’m not a believer in Marson’s bat. Happ is a fringe 5th starter-type. I think those guys may have more value to other clubs, particularly, say, the Padres, who value performance highly.

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