The Clearwater Threshers finished another week with a 3-3 record and currently sit at 21-30 on the year twelve games out of first place with 19 games remaining until the end of the first half of the season. Barring a complete collapse by all five of the teams ahead of our club in the standings it seems unlikely that that team can secure a playoff berth in the first half of the season to try and defend their 2007 FSL crown. Of course as we say here just about every year, there’s always the second half .
Despite the team’s record the club is not as bad as their record would indicate. Offensively the team has made some strides while beginning to get some extra base hits which is certainly promising. After trailing the league most of the season they moved up three places to ninth (of twelve) in slugging percentage this week. Unfortunately the pitching also ranks ninth in ERA with a 4.11 mark on the year and the Threshers staff has surrendered the most HR in the league having given up 45 so far on the year while the offense has managed to hit just 23 HR of their own.
The week started with Joe Savery taking the mound and after struggling for so many games, he was very impressive with arguably his best outing of the year. Joe threw seven innings of baseball giving up just one run on five hits while fanning seven players and walking just one in route to a Threshers 5-1 win over the Daytona Cubs to end that series with a 2-2 split.
The team then headed to Vero Beach for a four-game set with the Devil Rays. Tyson Brummett got the start for the Threshers, but despite a nice pitching effort was tagged with his second loss in four starts while remaining winless at Clearwater as the team fell 2-0 in the game. In his four games since being promoted from Lakewood Tyson has thrown 26.0 innings with a 3.12 ERA. His line is 9R / 22H / 18K / 9BB and he has not given up more than three runs in a single game. Unfortunately the offense has simply not supported him as the team has scored a total of just five runs in the four games he has pitched.
The following night the Threshers were rained out at Vero and came back on Saturday night looking scheduled for a double header. In the first game of the night Andy Cruse got the nod in just his second start of the season. Cruse looked solid throwing four of the seven innings giving up two runs on four hits with four strikeouts and just one walk. Brian Schlitter would throw two scoreless innings, and Brett Harker would throw the final scoreless frame as the Threshers won 6-2 in the game. The win was highlighted by home runs from Fidel Hernandez and John Urick. For Hernandez it was his second home run in three games after having no home runs up to that point.
Unfortunately rain began to fall again and the teams were unable to get the second game of the night in, and so they returned on Sunday afternoon again scheduled for two seven-inning games. In the first game of the day Edgar Garcia got the start but left the game with the team trailing 3-2 after just 3.2 innings of work. Dan Brauer came on in relief for 1.1 innings of work, and Sam Walls closed out the final inning with the Threshers rallying for four runs in the fifth inning punctuated by a home run from Adrian Cardenas to end the game with a 6-3 win for the team.
In the second game of the day Adrian Cardenas would add another home run, but this time it was not enough as the team fell 5-3 in the end. Zack Segovia got the start in the game, but Reymond Cruz suffered the loss when he gave up two runs in the bottom of the sixth inning after the Threshers had rallied to tie the game at 3-3 in the top half of the frame.
After getting the day off on Monday for Memorial Day the Threshers were finally back in their home park on Tuesday to face the Dunedin Bluejays. Joe Savery would take the hill for the second time this week, and was looking to stay on track after his impressive performance last Wednesday night at Daytona. Unfortunately Savery immediately ran into trouble giving up three runs on four hits after just four batters in the game. He would settle down however, and the Threshers’ offense rallied in support of him to tie the game at 3-3. Unfortunately things once again unraveled for Savery in the fifth inning with the Jays picking up three more runs to go up 6-3. Bear Hill came in from the bullpen to get the Threshers out of the inning, but the Jays would follow that inning by tagging Hill for three runs in the sixth inning on two home runs to extend the Jays lead to 9-3. The following inning Matt German came out of the pen in relief and was initiated by the Jays offense by giving up another home run, the fourth of the game for the Jays, as they extended the lead to 10-3. German would end the game giving up no more runs over the final too innings, but the deficit proved too much for the offense to overcome as the team fell 10-5 in the end.
Get Daily Threshers recaps at http://clearwaterthreshers.jeffcrupper.com
Phuture Phillies 
I like the “progress” Savery is making. I feel that he will be a good pick but its probably gonna be 2010 or 2011 before we see him at the Show. The talent is there…he just needs consistency. Thanks for the update Jeff.
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I still think Savery’s best attribute is his bat. As a pitcher, he simply doesn’t have any dominant traits. His fastball merely average: 88-92 without significant movement. His breaking pitch is a slurve. He can throw his changeup for strikes, but doesn’t consistently fool hitters by changing speeds. He struggles with command and doesn’t miss many bats. Savery doesn’t have an out pitch, dominant command or even a great feel for pitching.
The fact that the Phillies need pitching doesn’t make Savery a pitcher. When Savery was at Rice, his offensive output impressed me more than his pitching. Look at Savery’s Junior year: 2.99 ERA 1.32 WHIP 5.3 K/9…with a .356 BA and .435 OBP…
Good starting pitchers are worth more than gold, but I think Savery’s best future is at the plate. I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t think he’ll ever become a great starting pitcher. His hitting seems much more advanced than his pitching…I see him as a #4 pitcher in 2011 or a 950 OPS right fielder by late 2009…
Maybe Joe just needs a really good pitching coach. If someone just taught Savery a better changeup or breaking pitch, he’d rise up quickly. Right now, Savery does nothing exceptionally well, and you need at least one dominant attribute to succeed in the big leagues. You can’t just be a good athlete who does everything ok.
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The comments on Savery over the last 2 months really blow my mind. Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but I wonder if anyone who is making these comments knew anything about Savery prior to him being drafted by the Phillies.
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As a freshman, he put up this line
118.2 IP — 104 H — 4 HR — 129 K — 37 BB
As a freshman. He was one of the best pitching prospects in college after his freshman year. Then he got hurt. The people saying that hes never really been impressive, or that they don’t understand why hes so highly rated just didn’t follow college baseball. He was one of the best prep pitching prospects in the 2004 draft, and had he been draft eligible after his freshman year, would have been a Top 5-8 pick. He wasn’t 100% healthy his junior year and was still coming back from surgery. College juniors who are 100% healthy don’t get drafted and make it to the majors the next year, on the whole, yet people somehow expected that from Savery.
This is the first time he’s ever focused solely on pitching in his baseball career. Obviously hes going to have ups and downs. But to question his talent, or why people think he’s destined to be a great pitcher blows my mind. Sure, he might not make it, the odds are against all young pitchers, but the raw stuff is there, and its been there since he was a junior in high school. The problem, I think, is unrealistic expectations.
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I’ll admit that I was caught up in the Savery hype to start the season, but on advice from James and others I’ve tried to temper that with reality. Savery has shown signs of greatness, or at the very least of “pretty goodness” and has struggled at times. Had it been anyone else but Savery doing what he did I probably would not have been overly dissappointed about it, so it is not fair I guess to hold Joe to a different standard (although when a guy is a first round pick, that does sort of skew the standard.)
If he is still throwing like he did last night at the end of the year, then I may be worried. If he can at least keep having some good outings it will show that the potential is still there, and that with some good coaching he will (hopefully) get on track.
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Plus, hasn’t Savery said something along the lines of “this is the first time he is able to concentrate solely on pitching.” It sounds like even he admits that he has a few things to learn. I think he’ll be fine.
– Jeff
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do you agree that some pitchers never fully recover their stuff after a major surgery to their pitching arm? if you do agree, then why are you so surprised that people look past his freshman stats?
also, i don’t think that it is unfair to have high expectations from a first round pick. if we took a flier on a guy in the 3rd or 4th round, i totally agree. but we gave this guy more than a million bucks. his BAA in single A is horrible. really horrible for right handed batters. they aren’t hitting him, they are crushing him. Add in the horrible record that Rice pitchers have in the bigs and you get why we are concerned.
i hope he improves. i hope he is a stud. but when do you ask yourself if he will ever return to his freshman form of 2005? how long do you give him a “pass” on his stats?
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PP Fan Says:
May 28, 2008 at 11:13 am e
” how long do you give him a “pass” on his stats? ”
At least through the end of this season, and if it is not good then see what he does in the offseason to try and return to better form in 2009. Then see if he can make improvements.
Baby steps…
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Til next year…he’s in Single A and learning how to be a pitcher…we all need to be patient.
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I give him until the end of NEXT season before I really really worry. We’ve given Greg Golson 5 years. I think Savery is entitled to at least 2.
Despite all of the worrying and complaining, Savery is doing 2 things really well
* He’s generating swings and misses. 7.98/9
* He’s generating tons of groundball outs. 2.38 GO:AO
Those are two of the biggest indicators of future success. He has a high BABIP (.354) and an abnormally high LD rate. I think both will begin to normalize.
If he finishes the season striking out around 8-8.5 per 9 and keeps his GB% above 2.30, I’m going to consider 2008 a success. We’re talking about a guy who probably, considering his injury history, could have started out at Lakewood, but was aggressively pushed to the FSL. He’s facing good hitters, and he’s focusing on pitching full time for the first time. The fact that hes generating swings and misses and getting a lot of groundballs is very encouraging to me.
It was foolish for people to assume he’d fly right through the system and make it to Philly this season or even next. The percentage of guys who get drafted and make the majors the following season is microscopic.
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PP…one thing I really like about you is that you are level-headed and you look at the long picture instead of freaking out over a couple bad games or a couple bad months.
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James, thanks for pointing to Joe’s freshman year stats, which I think a lot of people overlook when they question his raw talent.
The only thing this year has done is shown us that Joe isn’t ready to fly through the system as some (including him) hoped he’d be. We got our hopes up a bit with Joe stating his goal of being called up in September 2008, but as people have pointed out above, the reality is that he’s still working his way back from injury and is still learning how to pitch. He needs to tighten up his pitches and improve on his command, but this isn’t a guy that was touted as a bigger, stronger Randy Wolf for no reason.
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More Joe Savery freshman stats: .382 BA .471 OBP .559 SLG 1030 OPS
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Quick; what is tougher to find, a 1B or a #2/3 SP?
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This month’s espn magazine article about two way players (Markakis, Loney, Owings)made me fear another John Van Benschoten debacle. The Pirates need for pitching blinded them from recognizing Van Benschoten’s superior hitting skills, and his lack of a true “out” pitch. I don’t have a ton of confidence that the Phillies would’ve make the right call under similar circumstances. I tend to think the Phillies organization’s constant need for pitching would’ve prompted them to leave Markakis, Loney and Van Benschoten on the mound.
and no, I never saw Savery before his Junior year.
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PP- Thats exactly what I’m talking about. Of course starting pitchers are harder to find, but that doesn’t make Savery’s value higher on the mound. We need to look at Joe objectively; without our orginizational desperation for pitching.
Wasn’t Babe Ruth the youngest pitcher to 50 wins? Some recent article about 2 way players just cited that fact…was it BP?
I think Savery could be an excellent right fielder…with that arm, swing, approach and athleticism…I just don’t see that potential on the mound. Unless he gains velocity, sharpens his commmand, develops a change, throws a better breaking pitch etc. He could develop into a good pitcher, and I hope he does, but I think he’s already a better position player.
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I think Randy Wolf is a terrible comparison. Wolf throws true a 12-6 curve; one of the best lefty hooks in baseball. Savery throws a Jamie Moyeresque slurve. Wolf’s strength is essentially Savery’s weakness.
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The Phillies could have started him as a 1B, and if he couldn’t hit enough, they could have moved him to the mound. Going the other way, ie, pitcher first and then hitter, usually doesn’t work out as well. I think that assuming that Savery has a better chance at a pro career as a position player instead of a pitcher, based on half a season of stats, is short sighted. At this time next year, he might be one of the best LHP prospects in the minors, he might be what he is now, or he might have a major arm injury. But plenty of college sluggers have gone to High A and turned into .250 hitters with minimal power.
Savery is a pitcher. There are no indications that the org has any thought to using him as a position player, and assuming he’d have been a better hitter than pitcher is just speculation right now. I think its best to just monitor what he does on the mound right now. He has plenty of time to sharpen his curveball and improve his changeup.
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At this point, we’ve pretty much committed to him as a pitcher, and that won’t change unless Savery continues to struggle for the rest of the year. That being said, I don’t think the answer here is as obvious as it seems. Not every team preferred him on the mound. Savery was the best hitter on the #2 college team in the country. He’s a better pure hitter than some position players we’re considering at #24 and #35. If we moved him off the mound, he’d immediately become one of the best pure hitters in our system, and perhaps one of our best position prospects. His star could very well rise more quickly off the mound. He could silence these thoughts by pitching better, but until he does, it’ll continue to be an intriguing alternative.
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i find this exchange very interesting. both baxter and PP make some good points. except i disagree with the golson comparison as golson was a high schooler. and he is the same age as savery now and performing better at a much higher level.
here is my question. (and it is a genuine question). how do you analyze someone who is getting strike outs but also giving up a lot of hits/runs. my skeptical side says that he is getting lucky by getting A ball hitters to swing at bad pitches, but when they lay off that junk, his walk totals go up and so does his hit totals. compare that to a pitcher who has a high k rate and a high walk rate but a low BABIP. that is an easy one to analyze. but this guy is getting crushed when he gets the ball over the plate. does anyone know his first pitch strike percentage? does he get behind in the counts alot and thus is forced to throw strikes which the hitters hammer? or is his stuff weak like baxter suggests?
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i.e. the key question that only baxter seems to address is – why is he performing so poorly and what will change? does he need to build up arm strength? is he still not healthy? is it a mental thing? is it a maturity thing?
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I love this discussion, too. Baxter, Phuture, you’re both right, which is why I think the Phillies made the right pick. But I’m for leaving him on the mound as long as possible.
No position on the diamond impacts the game more than a starting pitcher. All roster decisions should revolve around the gravity of that fact.
If Savery switches to first base, I want to be absolutely certain he couldn’t have made it as an effective starting pitcher. He deserves a real chance; a few years rather than a few months.
Baxter, maybe you just see something we don’t and time will prove your vision correct, but decisions of that magnitude require consensus, and it is just too soon for that.
Meanwhile, imagine the damage Savery could do hitting ninth three times a night.
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btw- the Babe Ruth reference was in pgcrosschecker, not BP
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