Daily Discussion; 5/27

I don’t have time today to post all of the recaps from the weekend games, but feel free to discuss any of those results should the urge hit you. Here are a few talking points before we get to today’s games;

* Andrew Carpenter now has a 6.18 ERA in 55.1 IP. Is this just a case of him having a poor two months adjusting to AA? Is he carrying an injury? I raised the notion about 6 weeks ago that he could have trouble this year, as he violated the “Rule of 30” last season.

* Lou Marson has a 1.150 OPS in 36 AB v LHP. His .843 OPS against RHP is still impressive, but man is he destroying lefties. Overall, he’s hitting .424 in his last 10 games with 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 SB, and 8 BB to go with 8 K. Young Lou is on fire.

* While I’m normally the guy that stresses patience when everyone wants a guy promoted after 6 weeks, can someone explain to me why 24 year old Chance Chapman is still at Lakewood? Has he already ascended into “organizational filler” less than a year after being drafted? His peripherals are decent, but he’s pitching against guys 4-5 years younger than him. If anyone should be converted to a reliever and fast-tracked, its Chapman.

Now, onto today’s games

42 thoughts on “Daily Discussion; 5/27

  1. “Something to watch: Highly touted Reading lefty Antonio Bastardo is now lined up on the same day as Adam Eaton. Bastardo struggled in his last start, Friday night, and Eaton pitched well.

    There’s some belief in the Phillies organization that Bastardo, 22, could help in the majors this season, a la Kyle Kendrick last year. He is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 582/3 innings between single and double A. Bastardo and Eaton will pitch for their respective teams tomorrow night.”

  2. Have to believe that Happ would be the first minor leaguer to get a shot at the rotation in place of Eaton if necessary. Add in that Happ is already on the 40-man roster and Bastardo isn’t.

  3. Eaton couldn’t pitch his way out of a cardboard box. Although I’m unsure if that’s an actual expression, I think the Phils should bite the bullet and cut him outright. Happ was a top prospect last year and now he’s just wasting away in Lehigh Valley. Get him in the rotation now.

  4. Does Brandon Watson get any consideration? So Taguchi is terrible. Is there any possibility that Brandon Watson is better than him. Taguchi doesn’t even give us good D in the outfield. How is Watsons defense and speed. he started off slow but has picked it up offesnivly. I’m not looking for the guy to be anymore than the 25th man on a roster, but if Lou Collier and Chris Roberson can do it, I would have to imagine that can find someone better than Taguchi. I lump Taguchi right in there with Collier and Roberson. How does Watson compare?

  5. 1) Why is Michael Taylor still in Lakewood? The way he’s raking, I’d seriously consider a double jump to Reading.

    2) Anyone notice the slow but steady improvement in Freddy Galvis at the plate? He was 4 for 4 yesterday.

  6. Watson has good speed and is fairly good defensively. He is not on the 40 man roster which is why TJ Bohn was called up this passed week to take the place of Jayson Werth. As Taguchi is making nearly $1 million this year and led the league in pinch hits last year, I wouldnt expect to see Watson replace him.

  7. Brandon Watson is a slower version of Michael Bourn. No power, plently of speed, decent glove, no arm in the outfield…

  8. without that hit streak, watson is nothing more than org filler, he doesnt slug a bit

  9. Just for fun, compare golson’s stats to Jay Bruce, the #1 prospect in all of baseball. True, Bruce’s stats are at AAA and Golson’s are at AA, but not a huge difference in the talent level from AAA to AA. Very interesting to see. They compare pretty favorably. Bruce also strikes out a lot. Same # of walks. Power stats are comparable, but Bruce has a slight advantage. Golson has hin in SBs.

    Player  Jay Bruce Greg Golson
    R  34 35
    H  67 62
    2B  9 10
    3B  5 2
    HR  10 6
    RBI  37 29
    BB  12 12
    SO  45 55
    SB  8 16
    OBP  0.393 0.361
    AVG  0.364 0.325

  10. I’d call 40 points in average more than a slight advantage. I like Golson but he’s not even close to Jay Bruce. Besides some of those numbers would look much worse by the end of the season…Bruce would have around 30 HRs compared to 18 for Golson etc etc. Its a good gap.

  11. I agree with Watson over Bohn knowing that we’d have to release Bohn to add Watson to the 40 man and to that I say so what. I’m sure they could move Slayden up to AAA and Taylor to AA or Milner to AA and Taylor to high A. These are not young prospects and success against younger players might be a false positive. Also, please don’t sell Taguchi short, he’s a solid major league caliber back up who hasn’t hit this year before last night but probably will.

  12. i am not saying golson is as good as bruce. i am just saying, this guy is the #1 prospect in all of the minors. yes, he has him by 40 points in BA. clearly a win. and he has more power, but golson has more speed, so that is a wash. golson has him in defense too. the walk rate is comparable, which is a bit surprising.

    all i am saying is that side by side, he hangs with the #1 overall prospect. of course, golson still has to do it for a full year!!!!! but it shows how good of a start he is off to.

  13. Chapman needed to be bumped and converted to relief right after being drafted. He has two pitches, get him in a situation where he can use that to his advantage.

    Garcia’s injury makes me wonder if it’s not time to get him into the bullpen as well.

    Good news on Naylor. I was worried.

    Taylor has to be moved up, too. On Galvis – 2 of those hits were bunts (FWIW).

    Anyone know anything about Joe Valentine?

  14. Valentine is just minor league filler.

    Also, how about Bruce and Golson in 2007

    576 PA: .319/.375/.587 — 46 2B — 8 3B — 26 HR
    607 PA: .273/.305/.426 — 32 2B — 5 3B — 15 HR

    And Bruce spent a good chunk of time at 3A as a 20 year old accumulating those numbers.

  15. again, i am not saying golson is as good as bruce, and bruce is a year and a half younger, but:
    – while bruce showed more power in 2007, golson had more SBs, 30 vs. 8
    – golson is better defensively
    – bruce had more than 1k per game in 2007, so he strikes out a lot too

    we are also comparing him to the #1 overall prospect, so the bar is very high here. but i think that he holds his own this year, which shows how good of a year he is having.

  16. bruce is not a shab defensively and also has a good arm

    his worst tool is his speed and I hear its not even that bad, an average tool

    he is a year and a half younger and has done better at a higher level…. there really is no comparison.

    not bashing Golson, he is the man, I hope he continues to keep it up… buts its unfair to compare him with possibly the best prospect in the minors. that is all

  17. Between Brown, Golson and Marson which, if any, has a chance to crack BBA top 100?

  18. golson and marson would probably both make it.

    how is taylor still in lakewood? dude can’t stop hitting the ball.

  19. I don’t think anyone is saying Golson is better than Bruce, but Golson doesn’t seem to trail the #1 prospect in baseball by that much, according to the numbers, so that is a hopeful sign. That’s all anyone is saying and I’m not sure anyone would disagree with that.

  20. Wonder if the national guys would move up the farm system rating after the first 1/3 of the season ? Remember that Keith Law had the farm system rated something like 27th out of the 30 when the season started. Consider a comparison in strike outs: Happ, IL, Carrasco EL, Naylor SAL and Bastardo FSL/EL have led their respective leagues and in Bastardo’s and Naylor’s cases all minors in strikeouts at times during the season. In league hitting, Marson in the EL is second; Taylor leads SAL and if Cardenas had enough at bats he would be 4th in the FSL. It that enough to move the Farm up a slot or two?

  21. word from scout.com is that Golson was promoted to AAA….he’s still not on the 40-man, but does this indicate a future move? Maybe releasing Chris Snelling and adding GG to the 40 for a September call-up? We’ll see. Maybe the Pigs can get 20 wins by July.

  22. Callups in the lower levels tend to happen right after the all-star break, which in the SAL is a couple of weeks away. I would expect to see Chapman, Taylor and possibly Naylor promoted to Clearwater. Unfortunately that will leave us a bit dry here in Lakewood…but it definitely needs to happens soon for their development.

  23. Golson is playing for Reading tonight. I think it would be a mistake to promote him to AAA so quickly… he struggled last year when promoted, and I’d like to see him continue his success at AA before I think about bumping him up.

    Michael Taylor needs to be promoted. .361 average, .996 OPS… he’s absolutely killing Sally league pitching. I know there’s a glut in the outfield at Clearwater, but I’d promote Milner (who is 24 and needs to move quicker if he harbors hopes of ever making the majors) and let Taylor take his spot.

    And speaking of outfielders… at what point do we really start to worry about d’Arby Myers? I know he’s still only 19 (which makes him young for the SAL), but in his third year in pro ball, he seems to be regressing, while fellow youngsters Mattair, Galvis, and Warren seem to be getting their feet under them.

  24. “at what point do we really start to worry about d’Arby Myers?”

    I think its important to adjust expectations and just wait- most importantly he needs to add some strength. I’ve seen him last year and this- he looks to be handling breaking balls a little better where last year he couldn’t pick them up at all. But the reality is that his hitting ability in its current state is nothing special, and the rest of his tools- such as speed, while they may be good, they aren’t great. Some people rave about his speed, but i’ve never seen anything from him that has made him stand out on the diamond.

  25. Golson is being promoted to AAA Lehigh Valley. According to Scout, it may just be a temporary move to take Bohn’s place until Werth returns from the DL. The idea is to give Golson a little taste of AAA and see how he reacts.

  26. Watching the Phillies rake and knowing how good their bullpen is this year, it is clear we have to go for it THIS year. What do you guys think it will take to get a solid number two starter at the trade deadline? Personally I would trade CC, Golson, and Naylor in a second if we could get a number two starter.

  27. I don’t think that’s clear at all, Burrell. The Phillies will continue to have a strong lineup for as long as Jimmy Rollins is in his prime (Rollins being older than Utley and Howard). Rollins is 29, so he should have at least a couple more years, and that’s being conservative. The typical fan always thinks that THIS YEAR is the year to go for it, regardless of the circumstances.

  28. Do those who even mention Golson in the same breath as Bruce have any idea what is going on. I hope Golson comes out to be the cream of the crop but come on. It is like comparing apples to oranges. A stud who hit at AAA this year and crushed the ball at two levels last year versus Golson???. Bruce would have been up last year , and sooner this year, if the Reds were not so cheap (like the Phils with Howard) and worried about arbitration. Golson is not just older, he has been in pro ball even longer then the age difference, and has only 2 months of decent stats. Sorry do not mean to get on a persons case. I love the Phils and HOPE you are correct in your comparison.

  29. 1flyfan, you need to go back and read chocoburger’s comment of 4:12. The point is not that Golson is equal to Bruce. The point is that Golson is within shouting distance of Bruce, and that that is a very good sign.

    Personally I don’t even know that I would agree with that statement myself, but I don’t think it’s an unreasonable statement and the broader underlying principle shouldn’t be controversial: that Golson’s performance this year is very encouraging and provides a genuine basis for hope.

  30. Golson’s improvement is very encouraging, but it is a big stretch to say he is within shouting distance of Bruce. The difference in age matters a lot. And except for SB, Bruce’s numbers are significantly better across the board. I won’t make a huge point of difference between AA and AAA, since not sure it is very big at all, but age is crucial in prospect assessment. So is consistency. Golson may have just turned the switch, but we need more time to assess.

  31. taco pal, The main reason I said this year we need to go for it is simple, Burrell is going to be gone, Gordon will be gone, as will Lidge. Our bench and bullpen are deeper than they have been in years and our only weakness is our starting pitching. Next year there is a good chance our lineup will be a lot thinner, along with the bullpen. One more good starting pitcher and I truly believe we will be in the World Series. And yes I know there is not much out there, but if it’s there I would gladly trade a few prospects. At this time last year we did not have any prospects to deal I believe we do now and should if it presents itself.

  32. One problem with PP Fan’s post is that he/she does not express thoughts clearly. It says “for fun, compare golson’s stats to Jay Bruce, the #1 prospect in all of baseball. . . . They COMPARE PRETTY FAVORABLY. ”

    To “compare favorably” means to “BE BETTER THAN” who you are being compared to. Look it up. Or ask someone here. On forum’s like this, you have to consider your words carefully, or people take you to task. Something like “It’s nice to see that some of Golson’s stats even compare to the top prospect in all of baseball. That’s enouraging”–or something more like that, would be more palatable. Say whatever you want, but if you don’t take the care to express yourself precisely, the folks will jump on you. Just an FYI for future reference.

  33. From Today’s paper:

    ****Benson threw four-plus innings and allowed three hits, one unearned run, and one walk. He struck out four. His fastball hovered around 86 to 90 m.p.h., up from last week when he topped out at 87 m.p.h. in an extended-spring-training game.****

    The uptick in velocity is a very very good sign for Benson to be effective. If he can get back to the 90-93 range on his FB he will help this team.

  34. Next year I could see against lefties an outfield of Werth, Golson and Victorino and against righties Dobbs, Victorino and Jenkins. In the Arizona Fall League Golson hit over .400 against lefthanded pitching. This year he is hitting .326 ( .967 OPS) against lefties.

  35. DiamondDerby – i don’t mind people arguing my point. i like it. that is why i post. it doesn’t offend me at all. i only get offended when a counter point is made personal. argue the data all you want.

    to your specific point, i think that i made it clear several times that i am not suggesting that golson is better than bruce. further, i admitted that bruce is a year and a half younger. i am saying that golson’s stats side by side to the #1 prospect in all baseball hold their own, which is solely and indication of what a good year he is having.

    i also pointed out that people on this blog kill golson for his high strikeouts and low walks, but bruce also has a high strike out and the same walk totals. now, i am not saying that high k rates and low walk rates are good. far from it. clearly you would want the opposite. i am a big believer that BA is a worthless stat and OB% is much more telling. but it is interesting to see golson’s stats in those categories compared to bruces. Cameron Maybin also has a high K rate and everyone loves him. What is encouraging is what golson has been saying lately about the cause of his high k rate, which is that he has been pressing. trying to avoid the strike out so forcing himself to swing to avoid strike 2. he has been swinging at bad pitches. it is a mental thing and this year he is maturing and waiting on pitches more and his k rate is down. still has a way to go, and needs to go down further, but improving.

  36. the point is, Greg Golson this year in AA barely sniffsJay bruce this year in half a season in AAA being a year and a half younger….

    there is literally ZERO comparison….. at the age of 20 Jay bruce was destroying pitching at THREE different minor league levels…. .925 ops or higher at all 3, over 1.00 in his limited AA stop

    and was thus named Minor league player of the year at the end of that season

    at the age of 20 Greg Golson had a about a .600 ops at A and +A…

    Greg Golson has a high ceiling, we all know that, and root for him to get there…. But comparing him to Bruce is not the best way to show that Greg may be better than we thought, it actually makes him look worse…

    and yes “comparing favorably” sounded like you were saying golson is just as good if not better….

  37. D’Arby comes in the games late in the 8 or 9th inning getting only 1 AB, everyone else getting 3,4,or 5 AB’s. He gets taken out early after 3 AB’s, while every one else stays in, even if they are 0-4. He playes every other day some times every two to three days. Because of his speed he makes the other team make errors so a lot of his hits are scored as an error. Fielding error, throwing error. That is why his stats are so low. Example, Jun 5 there was error.
    Jun 6 sac bunt and 2 errors. Jun 7 single, triple and error. Lowering his adv and no RBI’s. The others you mention , the ones with their feet under them have never been put in late in their games, coming in the 8th or 9th getting 1 AB or taken out early. When he gets on a roll he does not play the next day or he comes in for defense only in the 8th or 9th. So we really don’t have to worry about D’Arby and he is not regressing.

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