Hot off the press
01. Carlos Carrasco
02. Adrian Cardenas
03. Joe Savery
04. Josh Outman
05. Kyle Drabek
06. Dominic Brown
07. Greg Golson
08. Lou Marson
09. Drew Carpenter
10. Jason Jaramillo
No real shocks here. I had guessed that Carpenter, Marson and Jaramillo would be close, and with the Lidge deal moving two of our guys out of the top 10, Carpenter and Jaramillo were logical choices. The chat at BA is scheduled for 2PM, let’s see how many questions we can get answered. Chat update below
My take on the chat
* Real high on Golson, despite the fact that he has no plate discipline. Thinks the light could go on at any minute.
* Originally Carrasco could be a #2 starter, but now he’s a #3 starter since Myers is back in the rotation. Which highlights just how silly “#2 or #3 starter” tags really are. Carrasco’s problem is control and composure.
* Edgar Garcia went from promising middle of the rotation candidate to reliever in 1 season.
* Freddy Galvis could be the next Omar Vizquel
* Dominic Brown has tons of tools and potential, and has a good idea at the plate.
* Naylor is a solid 3 pitch guy, but couldn’t crack the top 10 over Jaramillo, who he admits is likely to be a backup.
* Phillies are very high on Correa
* Bastardo is undersized but has decent velocity, nothing really great to say about him.
* No mentions of Tyler Mach. Shocked.
* Likes Outman because he throws hard, doesn’t seem too worried about his lack of control/command.
* Donald and Harman are destined for utility roles, Cardenas could be a left fielder
* Mattair being compared to Scott Rolen
* d’Arnaud needs to improve his game calling
* Savery will likely start at Lakewood. You have to be kidding me.
Phuture Phillies 
Shouldn’t Jason Donald be on that list?
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They’re writing Donald off as a role player.
I think I tend to disagree with much of what Kline has said in his chat, but that’s not too surprising.
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Sounds like the phils are high on Correra
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Can we get a summary of the chat?
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Sure. updated the first post to include my take on it. I wasn’t very impressed, to be honest.
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Didn’t have access to the chat, but saying an 18-year-old HS catcher needs to improve his game calling does not tell me that much (I am assuming your notes are a little sarcastic, especially the Mach comment). It seems they are taking what the Phillies say to them privately and repeating it rather than forming too many independent impressions. Maybe he was a little blunt, but Keith Law probably had more prescient things to say in his brief chat here.
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In the print edition of Baseball America.
Bourn was ranked #7 and Costanzo #8
Costanzo was also listed on Baseball America’s list of Top Phillies as their “Top Power Hitter” and “Best Infield Arm” in the projected 2011 lineup Costanzo was at 3rd base
and Golson suprising was missing from that list.
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Forgot to add, Kline thinks Savery is going to start at Lakewood. I sure hope not.
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I agree about Savery, lets face it if Carpenter went directly to Clearwater I would expect Savery would do the same. Is there anything he said that you can agree with or that you found revealing about the system?
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I don’t know really. It seems like the chat was done with Ruben Amaro, to be honest.
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An interesting list, and it’s good to get a third party perspective at times.
To echo what was already said, it would bother me if Savery starts at Lakewood. Fall league numbers don’t mean a ton, but he’s been nearly unhittable in Arizona (4 hits in 14 innings), and while he needs to work on his control, he’s not going to learn anything mowing down guys in the Sally league. I hope Gillick keeps with his aggressive nature and starts Joe in Clearwater.
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FWIW–not much, admittedly–everything I’ve read indicates that Savery is likely to start at Clearwater. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a September ’08 callup.
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I look thru the Phillies Farm System….after trading Costanzo they have absolutely no power or run production players at all….the closet is Greg Golson who hit 15Hr…12 shy of Costanza.
Golson is stud….he will be a 5-tool player….and very exciting to watch in the Phillies outfield.
Why didn’t BA have him in the projected 2011 line-up?
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I think the Phillies should really challenge Savery and start him at Reading. He came from a big time program I think he will be ready.
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That’s good news about Mattair – I wonder what if he will start ’08 in Lakewood or will he go to Williamsport.
Oh yeah, and I would start Savery in Clearwater, but move him up to Reading if (when) he dominates after a few starts. I think a September call up isn’t out of the question.
– Jeff
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I would be hesitant about rushing Mattair to Lakewood. The kid hit .235 with a 12/58 K/B ratio. He is extremely raw. While the tools might compare to Scott Rolen, the polish does not. I fear Mattair would hit .180 at Lakewood and suffer a setback if rushed. Derrick Mitchell showed enough at Williamsport last year where he probably should be the starting Lakewood 3B.
Moving Harman to 3B is maybe the more interesting question if we do not sign a free agent 3B this year. We probably will need a new 3B in 2009 after Helms is gone. Does Harman have enough bat to get a shot there?
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Given the Phillies offensive capacity in their infield, having a light offensive guy at 3b would be okay – so if Harman has the glove, arm, etc to handle third, and puts up offensive numbers similar to his Clearwater numbers this year, then he’d be a welcome addition.
– Jeff
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Mattair going to Williamsport is fine with me. I think Harman’s ultimate role has yet to be determined. If he duplicates his 2nd half in 2008, his prospect status will rise, and then the question will be whether he is able to handle 3B or not.
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I think the Phillies recognized their lack of power heading into last year’s draft and that is what lead to the selection of Mattair, Spencer, Taylor and Rizzotti. However, all of those guys only played short-seasons last year so that is why the system looks pretty barren for power. I also do think that both the Lakewood and Clearwater parks depress HR numbers.
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Add Bowman field in Williamsport. That is a big park. Spencer hit only two of his team leading 9 homers there.
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Lakewood is one of the toughest parks in the minors to hit HR. It’s also the main reason Carrasco’s ERA was as low as it was in 2006, as his HR rate shot up in 2007 when he moved to Clearwater, which is more neutral.
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Harman couldn’t play Shortstop and people want him to move 3rd Base, after playing 2nd in 2007.
Harman committed 33 errors in 2005 in Lakewood and 37 in 2006 he made 37 errors in Clearwater, prompting his move to 2nd Base.
Same for Jason Donald. He committed 25 errors last season at Short. He’s the most logical choice to move to 3rd base.
Only doesn’t have the power to be a corner infielder.
Mattair is very raw and the Phillies don’t even know if he can hit with wood yet. He will most likely start at Williamsport.
We have a huge void at 3rd in the minors.
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I wonder how many of these guys will be in BA’s overall top 100. Carrasco seems like a decent bet to be in the second half of the list. Probably Savery as well. Cardenas? He ranks on the team list ahead of Savery, but I could easily see the different voting for the MLB-wide list leaving him off.
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Brad Harman is one to watch if he can make the transitition to third. He was the top hitter for the Threshers in the FSL playoffs and is hitting .358 so far in the World Cup for the Aussies. And by the way Team Aussie’s PR guy considers him a “defensive prodogy” He just wrote about him in the game against Canada:
“After an intentional walk to “white-hot” leadoff man Trent Oeltjen, defensive prodigy Brad Harman showed he is more than capable of shouldering his fair share with the bat – stroking an RBI double to centerfield that gave the Aussies their first lead since the top of the third inning.”
.
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Well, Harman may indeed be a defensive prodigy, but we’re talking about pronouncements from people in Australia, hardly a hot bed of baseball activity.
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I don’t think Harman is viewed as a defensive prodigy as SS here in the US. He’s neve been mentioned as the Phillies best defensive IF prospect, best IF arm, etc. Moving to 3B requires a strong arm. If he was a great defensive SS, doubt the Phillies move him to 2B. I think he needs another very good season to be viewed as a top prospect, since he has been so up and down in his career. Really nothing to suggest he has a 3B bat. Not sure if he has a 3B arm, but suspect the Phillies would have mentioned it by now if he did.
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I don’t think we have any idea why Harman did not play third, but I can think of a lot of reason why he would not have been playing there that have nothing to do with his ability to man that position. To begin, the Phils had a hot shot third base prospect until a couple of days ago. Second, to date at least, Harman has not wielded a traditional corner IF bat – that might be changing. Finally, teams usually try to keep hot young prospects in the middle infield for as long as they can – as these positions are more challenging and add playing these slots adds to the player’s value. So, really, who the heck knows whether Harman can play third – if he keeps hitting like he did in the second half of the season, we may find out soon.
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Hey guys- took awhile to catch up on all of the list talk, but here are some general comments.
1. Savery will not be ready for the majors in ’08. While he came from a big-time program and has big-league stuff, he is pretty raw. He missed time due to injury in college and was not a full-time pitcher. He pitched well in the AFL (a sign of his great stuff) but had an 11-5 bb/k ratio, indicative of serious command issues. I see him as starting in Lakewood for half of year, learning the routine of being a full-time pitcher and working out some kinks in his delivery and then blistering through the system with a possible June ’09 ETA.
2. Neither Harmon nor Donald project as anything more than Greg Dobbs if placed at 3rd base. A problem that our system currently has is that three of our most intriguing prospects (Cardenas, Donald and Harman) ultimately project as prototypical average starting 2nd basemen (Cardenas better than prototypical), yet we have the best 2b in the game locked up forever. Cardenas will have to move to left where his power numbers will no longer be atypical for the position, lessening his value, while neither Donald nor Harman really project at 3rd due to average arm strength and lack of power numbers. One will become a much better-hitting Abe Nunez/Eric Bruntlett and one won’t pan out or will be traded.
3. After being a realist on those two fronts (and I’m not sold on Carrasco either), I do have some more positive projections. I think that Happ is going to be a very effective #3/4 in the mold of Cliff Lee (pre-decline). I believe that Outman will be a stud at the top of the rotation, he just has incredible stuff. Dominic Brown has tremendous upside potential (Chad Ford would be proud of the reference) and showing signs of developing it. I think Garcia bounces back ala-Carrasco a few years ago as well.
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The key to Cardenas, Donald or Harman moving to 3b is going to be defense. Their offensive numbers match up pretty close to those put up by guys like Lowell, Wright, Rolen, and Atkins at the same age/level. It’s a little early to say that they don’t have a corner infield bat.
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The guys you mention are good-sized 3B. The Phillies you mention are smallish 2B, SS guys. Cardenas likely has enough bat anyway, but he has not been discussed by Phillies as 3B-capable, corner OF is mentioned more.
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I’ll give you Lowell Atkins and Rolen on the size issue but all three of our guys are taller than Wright. Plus Rollins proved this year that you don’t need to be 6’6″ to hit for power. I’m not saying any of these guys ever will develop that type of power, I just think it’s a little early to write off their power potential.
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Wright is indeed smaller than the other guys you mentioned, but he still has 20# on Harman. Donald is his size, but has never shown the power Wright has. Donald has had quite a few years to show that power, if he is going to. Cardenas likely will grow to Wright size and likely will develop power. If you have ever seen a suggestion from Phillies or anyone else that he can play 3B, please reference it. Given how backed up the Phillies are at 2B, I think they would have moved Harman or Cardenas to 3B if they saw any chance they could handle it defensively.
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I’m sorry, what do people have against Jason Donald? He hit .310 in A-ball this year at 22, and hit 12 homers and added 31 doubles with a .470-ish SLG. That’s not bad at all for those parks. If he goes to Reading next year, his power numbers may well jump up quite a bit. He’s got great hands and reactions for a 3B, but an average arm. I’m pretty sure he could play the position well, but the Phils may not try him there because his arm is only average. I like Harman, too, but I think he may end up being a utility guy who can hit a bit. Golson will get every chance, but the strike-zone judgment is a fatal flaw, IMHO.
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Actually, I think they might be worried about his range at 3B. In college, his arm was considered his only plus tool. I think people are underselling Donald. Lakewood greatly suppresses power numbers. We’ll see what he can do at AA.
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I haven’t seen anything official that any of these players will be switching positions. (Although the prospect profile for Cardenas on this site does make mention of it.) I was more replying to the earlier posts that said they don’t have the bat to play 3b.
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It would not be the worst thing for Donald to stay at SS. Every scouting report seems to downgrade his power potential. If he is OK defensively at SS, it would not be the worst thing for him to stay at SS in the minors for the next 2 years, spend 1-2 years on the major league team backing up Rollins and then be the SS in 4 years when Rollins’ contract is completed.
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Phillychuck —
I think there are two questions on Donald. First, last season is an aberration offensively compared to his rookie season and college performance. He was expected to hit better in college than he did as a top HS prospect, so perhaps he has finally taken that step forward that was expected. But he really needs a good season in 2008 to validate the 2007 performance, which in and of itself was quite good. Second, there is the issue of whether he has the range to be a major league starting SS. If not, where does he play? For now, I think he is a top 10 – 15 prospect for us, who could go higher with a good 2008. To me, still a big stretch to say he has enough bat for 3B.
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