BA’s Top 10 Phillies prospects (guess)

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Baseball America is trotting out their team Top 10’s and started this year with the NL East. Atlanta, New York and Washington have already been unveiled, which means Philadelphia and Florida will come next Monday and Wedenesday. So, get your guesses in now. I’ll give it a shot, based on how I think they think

01. Carrasco
02. Cardenas
03. Savery
04. Brown
05. Outman
06. Drabek
07. Donald
08. Sampson
09. Galvis
10. Mattair

wildcards are d’Arnaud and Marson.

25 thoughts on “BA’s Top 10 Phillies prospects (guess)”

  1. Can’t quibble strongly with your guesses, or even with the list as the true top Phillies prospects. Now the quibbles:
    – Can’t see Mattair ahead of d’Arnaud
    – Sampson may turn up this high next year, but this seems to high a 2008 placement, even for BA. I think Marson takes his place

    Other than that I think you have nailed the guys who actually will appear on the BA top 10, and if you count your wild cards, you likely have them all. On positioning within the 10, I think both Brown and Donald slide down. I guess Garcia could edge out Donald. They are likely both in the 10 – 12 range.

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  2. You were pretty close, and I assume you did your list assuming they would not have Costanzo in it.

    In the print edition, which was done pre-trade, their list is:

    Carrasco
    Cardenas
    Savery
    Outman
    Drabek
    Brown
    Bourn
    Costanzo
    Golson
    Marson

    As stated in their Trade Tracker regarding the Lidge trade, Bourn only started 15 times and had 119 ABs, so that must be their rationale for having him on the list. They were originally going to post the online list on Nov 12th, but have pushed it back a day to the 13th. My guess is they are adjusting the list to push their 11th and 12th prospects up to 9th and 10th to replace Bourn and Costanzo, so the suspense will be who were the 11th and 12th prospects on their list. I suppose they have time to correct their 2008 Prospect Handbook where they list their top 30 prospects per team, so we may actually see who they initially thought were 31st and 32nd as well…

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  3. nice, I don’t get the print edition, so thanks for posting that.

    BA’s love for a guy like Golson is one reason why I do have to take things they write with a grain of salt. Their is certainly a value in considering a guy’s respective tools, but they seem to consider 97% tools and 3% performance. If they considered his numbers, relative to league averages, I don’t think he’d be in the Phillies Top 30, let alone the top 10.

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  7. Since we already know the Top 8, I’ll just post my prediction for 9 & 10.
    9) D’Arnaud
    10) Mathieson

    Mathieson is eligible on BA’s lists…I still don’t know why he wasn’t eligible for the Top 30 we just completed.

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  14. I don’t know how you can conclude that Galvis can’t hit. Or why you asume Mach is a good fielder, everything I’ve read about him says he isn’t. Galvis was extemely young for the NYP league. Mach was 5 years older. That is a huge difference. Galvis is also a very good defensive SS.

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  15. This is what the Williamsport Sun-Gazette’s beat writer said about Freddy at the end of the season:

    “Shortstop Freddy Galvis, who was among the leagues’s best defensive players before a shoulder separation ended his season, arrived and left Williamsport as a 17-year old. Provided he recovers properly from surgery, he’s a likely candidate to return here next season”

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  16. Mattair may mature into a Top 10 guy, but not now.

    K’s way too much, and is still growing into his puppy dog feet.

    d’Arnaud is definitely a Top 10 guy because he’s already coordinated and learned very quickly how to call games. His superhuman cuts will lead to a lot of extra base hits.

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  17. Glad to see some love for Marson from BA. He’s #5 on my list, but their ranking him at all suggests they see tools; I basically just have the numbers and second- or third-hand reports to go on. My list:

    Carrasco
    Cardenas
    Savery
    Outman
    Marson
    Carpenter
    Donald
    Brown
    Harman
    Garcia

    Next five: Bastardo, D’Arnaud, Bisenius, Happ, Golson

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  19. Myers who is just 18 should have been on the list. He is one of the youngest if not the youngest player in the NYP. He is also a very good defensive OF. Someone needs to talk to the guys who do the phillies list and give BA a better report.

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  21. I am not sure Myers is top 10 until he shows a little power. He does not seem to have great strike zone control either at this stage. It is hard to tell how much of his stats this year are hurt by the injury, but it was also apparent that Brown took a huge leap past him by showing some power (and even most of that was not really in games). I still like Myers, but he needs to show more hitting ability than solely hitting for average or he becomes a Juan Pierre type with little margin of error.

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  22. Power tends to come later and Myers is still pretty skinny. His numbers at start of season, prior to injury were quite good. Agree with you that he needs to develop more power and more walks. We do need to consider that he is more than a year younger than Brown, and that near the start of a baseball career this difference in age and experience makes a big difference.

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  23. Hopefully both Brown and Myers make the jump to Lakewood and get 500 at bats each. I have a feeling they are the type of players that will need maybe 2,000 total minor league at bats, so hopefully they can handle full season ball next year. I agree that the extra year is really important in terms of physical development with Myers. He could still be a top 10-quality prospect in a year with 10 extra pounds and a little more experience.

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  24. Here is the 2008 list, post Lidge trade:

    1. Carrasco
    2. Cardenas
    3. Savery
    4. Outman
    5. Drabek
    6. Brown
    7. Golson
    8. Marson
    9. Carpenter
    10. Jaramillo

    Chat at 2:00pm

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  25. It is apparrent that BA has the same love for Brown that they have for Golson, I think Brown is to high on the list. Brown did no better than Berry. Berry is a better OF than Brown and BA did not put him on their list. I saw Brown play in Williamsport he made a lot of erros in the OF and bad routing. He needs to work on his fielding before he is a #6 on the list or a top 10 prospect.

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