Thoughts on David Herndon

Spring Training 2010

Had my first good look at his in today’s game against Detroit. Though his minor league peripherals weren’t amazing last year, he generates a good amount of groundballs, and seeing his sinker today, its not tough to figure out how he does it. He also snapped off two nice sliders on the outer half to RHB, and then threw a softer slurvy type breaker on the inside corner which just missed. Without radar gun readings on the tv screen, it looked like he was able to add/subtract a bit on his sinker. The Phillies have to decide what to do in the bullpen, and it could be really tough to keep him. With the two injured pitchers out, the locks are

Madson, Baez, Contreras, Durbin

Bastardo is a near lock as the only healthy lefty.

That leaves Herndon and Mike Zagurski, the latter hasn’t thrown much at all. Zagurski has one option left, I believe, so he could be sent to the minors without losing him to waivers, while Herndon has to stay on the 25 man roster. Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer are battling for the 5th spot. Kendrick has options left, Moyer obviously doesn’t. When Lidge and Romero come back, it could set off a chain reaction which will ultimately lead to Herndon getting squeezed out. If the Phillies like him enough to think he could help later in the year, they’d have to work out a trade for his rights with Anaheim.

Thinning Ranks

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Three more Phils were sent from Major League Spring Training to the Minors late yesterday.  SS Brian Bocock, 1B Andy Tracy and Relief Pitcher Ehren Wasserman all were re-assigned to Minor League camp, leaving the Phils with 35 on their roster.  Both Wasserman and Tracy are expected to be on the Lehigh Valley opening day roster with Bocock’s assignment a bit more of a question mark depending on the Phils needs throughout the system.

Escalona Optioned

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Left Handed Reliever Sergio Escalona was optioned to the minors today after struggling this Spring.  With JC Romero almost a certainty to begin the season on the DL, the remaining competition for his roster spot as a late inning lefty out of the ‘pen is between Antonio Bastardo and Mike Zagurski.  Although Bastardo has more “upside” then Zagurski, Zagurski has been far more effective thus far in Spring Training. Last years minor leaguers remaining in Major League camp include: Pitchers: Kendrick, Herndon(Rule 5), Bastardo, Zagurski, and Wasserman. 

Infielders: Bocock, Chavez, Ransom, Valdez, Tracy.  Catcher: Sardinha  Outfield:  Mayberry and Wise.

Phillippe Aumont article

Aumont, Phillippe

Check it out here in the Toronto Sun. Basically, its been a best case scenario since Aumont got to spring training. In my Top 30 writeup and everything I wrote after the Halladay/Lee deals, I indicated that I’d love to see Aumont moved back to the rotation, and that his mechanics/arm action be cleaned up. So far, the changes appear to be taking, and Aumont seems to have a great attitude toward everything. This is obviously extremely promising, and had I known the Phillies were going to follow this plan, I’d have probably ranked Aumont a few spots higher in my Top 30. Good stuff.

Also, keep an eye on the Reading Phillies website. They’ve been posting recaps of the minor league games being played between the Phillies and other AA affiliates. In the 8-1 win yesterday there were solid performances from Tyson Gillies and Michael Schwimer, among others.

Update –> Thanks for the mention in comments, the Blue Claws Blog has updates from all the games. Check it out here.

Friday Poll Question/Scheduling update

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Tentatively I’m hoping to have my list of breakout guys for 2010 published on Monday, I’ll have my potential busts for 2010 for Tuesday, and then the SONAR stuff for pitchers on Wednesday or Thursday. This is subject to change of course based on the amount of time I have over the next few days, but its my hope.

Today’s poll question;

Which Phillies centerfield prospect do you expect to have the better 2010, Anthony Gose or Tyson Gillies? Both guys have gotten lots of positive press, they’ll start 1 level apart and both should log 550+ PA’s. Both have intriguing skill sets, and there is a debate to be had over how they should rank on the Phillies Top 30. I ranked Gillies higher, but I can see the arguments for Gose. So, make your pick and take your stand.

SONAR scores by position

SONAR Scores

I hope all of you have read my revised and updated piece on the SONAR score published a few days, but if you haven’t, check it out before proceeding here. After my initial release, I went through each position and did an examination of the top 20 at each position. I’m not going to do the same in depth analysis here, I’m just going to give you the Top 25 at each position, and then brief general thoughts underneath each chart. I’ve chosen here to also break down the OF spots into the more traditional LF, CF, and RF. As always, SONAR is an attempt to look at a player’s secondary skills (plate discipline, raw power, speed) and ignore the more superficial stats like batting average, which are more luck influenced. SONAR represents a data point, a means for further exploration, its not a replacement for scouting reports or other statistics. So check below and we’ll get started.

Continue reading SONAR scores by position →

A Quick Look Around

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Update 3:00 p.m. Since this post was published about two hours ago, both Andrew Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong have been sent down to Minor League camp.

As the Minor League Exhibition season begins and with many of those in major league camp being sent down to compete in the Minor League phase of Spring training, here is a look at how those players that have seen time in Major League “A” games fared thus far in the Spring.  Included are only those who will start the season in the minors and those who are competing for final roster spots in Philly.

Pitchers:

Starters-Kyle Kendrick:  9IP 4H 0ER 0BB 2K; 0.00 ERA, 0.44 WHIP; Andrew Carpenter 8 IP 5H 1ER 1BB 9K; 1.13 ERA, 0.75 WHIP; Ryan Vogelsong 3IP 7H 4ER 3BB 1K; 12.00 ERA; Phillipe Aumont, 2.2 IP 2H 0ER 1BB, 0K; 0.00 ERA; Joe Savery 3IP 4H 3ER 2BB 1K; 9.00 ERA; Drew Naylor 2IP 1H 0ER 0BB 2K; 0.00 ERA; Yohan Flande: 3IP 6H 2ER 0BB 1K; 6.00 ERA, Jesus Sanchez, 1 IP 0H 0ER 0BB 2K; JC Ramirez: 4.1 IP 6H 4ER 3BB 3K; 8.31 ERA 2.08 WHIP. Continue reading A Quick Look Around →

Feedback

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As you know, I have been writing columns at this site for about a year now and I would like your feedback about their content.  The columns to date have included my insights into the world of minor league baseball.  I have written several types of articles that include: Q and A, mailbag, pitching philosophy, daily life, pitching mechanics, and interaction with big league players.  Which type of column is your preference?  Is there a topic I haven’t covered that you would like to read about?   I have really appreciated your support during this past year and I would like to improve upon the content of my columns so that you get to read what is of interest to you.  If you would like to provide me with your feedback, or if you have other questions you would like for me to answer, please feel free to let me know in the comments section or via email at x

SONAR revised/revisited

SONAR Scores

This is something I’ve been spending a lot of time working on with the completion of my Reader Top 30, and I feel like I have things where I want them, so I wanted to make another detailed post talking about my new creation, the SONAR score. If you’ve been around for a while, you read my introduction pieces here and here back in November. Like any good social scientist, I set out with a goal; to try and figure out a way to evaluate minor league prospects across all leagues, factoring in all of the aspects of the game that can be accurately measured, to try and evaluate what prospects have done, and which players might succeed/struggle going forward based on their peripherals. Along the way, I encountered many difficulties, including the simple amount of work it entails to code over 5,000 players into a system, and then trying to figure out if the formulas I used were accurate, helpful, or off the mark. My test run was published in November, and then I started to do position by position breakdowns. It was during this process, when I was looking at the numbers in depth (and based on reader feedback) that I discovered some of the flaws in the system, and I set about fixing the errors, making adjustments, and trying to make the system the best it can be. As any person who tries to create something new, the first run (or first 10 in this case) rarely is ever perfect. But a good scholar always tries to improve, to figure out what is missing, and to try and make it the best it can be. So that is where we are now. Check below for the details.

Continue reading SONAR revised/revisited →

Phils Make Cuts

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The Phillies made their first round of cuts today, as Minor League camp opens and games begin shortly. Included in the cuts: P Phillipe Aumont and P JC Ramirez (both acquired in the CLiff Lee deal), P Jesus Sanchez, P Joe Savery, P Drew Naylor, P Yohan Flande, P Bill White, C Tuffy Gosewisch, C John Suomi, C Kevin Nelson, OF Quintin Berry and OF Tyson Gillies (also acquired in the Lee deal). The one somewhat surprising name to be sent down early was Scott Mathieson who made two appearances giving up a run in two innings of work.  With the question marks surrounding the health of  both Lidge and Romero in the back of the ‘pen to start the year, many expected (myself included) Mathieson to make a legitimate run at an opening day roster spot.  I would expect him to start the season potentially closing in Lehigh Valley.