Draft Retrospective – Projectable High School Pitcher

2013 Draft

The Phillies like many teams draft for projectability when it comes to high school players.  The Phillies over the past 5 years have shown that they have a type of high school pitcher that they value.  That pitcher tends to be taller than 6′ 3″ and have large projectable frames with rumors that their velocity will increase and that they can hold up for a full season.

The thing to keep in mind is that many things can go wrong for high school pitchers.  Pitcher get hurt and often for strange reasons, and sometimes for entirely predictable reasons.  The velocity does not always increase and a player can be caught with fringy velocity.  Pitchers can also lose velocity in professional ball, this can be because they need to throw less hard to gain control or the increased work load can decrease their ability to throw hard every start.  The reward can be great with a high school pitcher that works out especially when those picks are in the later rounds. Continue reading Draft Retrospective – Projectable High School Pitcher →

Taking Stock a Month In – Making Sense of Hot Starts

Other Stuff

It is hard to not get excited about hot starts for prospects because they bring so much promise and optimism.  The key as always, is to know why they are starting out how they are.  Sometimes regression is right around the corner and other times there is something there that has changed our view on them.

This isn’t a Hot Start This Is Who He Is:

Maikel Franco – Franco is by no means a finished product or a perfect prospect.  He has some limitations that will likely keep him from being a superstar.  At the plate he is a free swinger (not a hacker) and is going to have reasonable strikeout rates and walk rates but he is not going to be a high OBP guy.  His swing can get long and he can sell out for power exposing him to premium stuff, especially when pitchers can get inside on him.  But what he has, is special, Franco has a very quick bat that makes solid contact and projects to have a plus hit and plus power tool.  He should be able to be average to above defensively at third, and all round you have an occasional All-Star and well above average third baseman. Continue reading Taking Stock a Month In – Making Sense of Hot Starts →

Box Score Recap – 5/2/2013

Box Score Recap

Hoby Milner taking care of business, and a Manny Martinez sighting in the Clearwater bullpen. Can’t imagine that’s anything more than an inning from a guy who was in town and available to give one. And one more note there – Jose Mojica with 4 hits, raises his BA to .400. On May 2. He’s clearly outmatching the pitchers there as he repeats the league as a 24 year-old. There’s nowhere to go with him though, so he’s probably stuck there unless Duran goes down with an injury, or goes up to LV.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 5/2/2013 →

Box Score Recap – 5/1/2013

Box Score Recap

Yoel Mecias struck out eight of the 21 batters he faced. Chace Numata hit his first homerun of the year, and is now (after an admittedly “spike-enducing” game), OPSing .784 in a reasonably-age-appropriate league. He’s about a year younger than the average SAL hitter at around 20.7, compared to the league’s hitters, who average 21.6, (per BRef). Also in that contest, Roman Quinn stole his 11th base. He’s only been caught once, which puts him on pace for a success rate of 11/12. You’re welcome.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 5/1/2013 →

Hot or Not

Other Stuff

A look back at the April 24-30 time period.  Quick thoughts/questions…What should Biddle’s timeline for promotion be?….Very rough week for the Lakewood rotation….Cesar Hernandez remains on fire. As solely a 2B, what should the Phils do next year if he keeps it up?10 RBI week for Maikel Franco whose stock is clearly rising into the very top echelon of Phils prospects…Zach Collier is overmatched at AA(0-8, 7K’s the last two days)…Start paying attention to Mauricio Robles. He is on the 40 man roster and has been dominant this year, striking out 22 in 15.1IP, with a WHIP well below 1.

Hot Hitters:(12AB MIN) William Carmona (.500, 5R, 4RBI); Cesar Hernandez, (.458, 6R HR 3RBI, 3SB); Cameron Perkins (.412, 5R); Darin Ruf (.400, 3HR 9RBI); Kelly Dugan(.375, HR 3RBI); Tyler Henson (.368); Maikel Franco (.333, 5R 3HR 10RBI);   Honorable Mention: Castro, Rupp, Pointer

Not Hot Hitters: Edgar Duran (.059); Roman Quinn (.077); Zach Collier (.100); Logan Moore (.125); Larry Greene (.125); Albert Cartwright (.125); Dis (Honorable) Mention:  Orr, Overbeck, Martinez, Hudson Continue reading Hot or Not →

AA Pitching Transactions and Discussion

Colvin, Brody, Other Stuff

A couple reports from Mike Drago and Anthony Burkhart on Twitter, (sorry to them I don’t know who “scooped” who – they’re both getting the same info on these couple items, at least). Continue reading AA Pitching Transactions and Discussion →

Taking Stock a Month In – They Are Who We Thought They Were

Other Stuff

We often think of minor league players as needing to continuing to improve.  Sometimes it is almost as good to sustain success on a higher level.  the second part of this series taking stock in the system looks at  the guys where nothing has really changed this year.  Some of the stats may be slightly above or below but the profile has not changed.

Adam Morgan – Morgan has been dominant at times and has struggled during other times.  He is more the guy he was in Reading then Clearwater, which is a very solid #3 starter with some upside.  Despite clamoring for him to be called up, Morgan still has a lot to do on the AAA level.  He now has only about 66 innings (11 starts) above A ball, and could easily take the whole year to refine his secondary pitches without it affecting his value. Continue reading Taking Stock a Month In – They Are Who We Thought They Were →

Box Score Recap – 4/30/2013

Box Score Recap

Nice line from Seth Rosin, a little less nice from Nick Hernandez, and I’m not sure how to categorize the line from Ethan Martin – even “a lot less nice” seems a bit generous, though 4 walks and only 3 hits isn’t the worst day anyone’s ever had.   Continue reading Box Score Recap – 4/30/2013 →

Lehigh Valley Weekly Report

Other Stuff

Lehigh Valley completed their 8 game road trip with a 9-5 loss against Louisville yesterday, and after a long bus ride back to Allentown, have an off day today followed by an 8 game home stand that begins Thursday against Indianapolis.  Since the last report, Lehigh Valley went 3-5 and now stand at 10-15 on the year, 7 games behind division leading Buffalo.

‘Pigs League Leaders: Cesar Hernandez is 5th in AB’s (95), 8th in SB’s (7), 9th in OBP (.417); 3rd in avg. (.375), leads the league in triples (3), and leads the league in hits (36); Darin Ruf is 3rd in doubles (9); Cody Overbeck is 6th in HR(5).

Pitching: Justin DeFratus is 5th in wins(3), Tyler Cloyd is 5th in losses (5), 8th in HR allowed (4), has the 8th worst ERA (6.67), and 3rd worst WHIP (1.78); Ethan Martin has the 3rd worst ERA(7.66), 2nd worst WHIP (1.79) and leads the league in walks allowed (20); Adam Morgan is 7th in IP (30.2); Jake Diekman is 9th in walks allowed (14)

‘Pigs Prospects–Darin Ruf is now officially on fire, after slumping last week. In the series against Louisville, Ruf smacked 3 doubles and 3 HR’s while going 8-16 in the series.  After dropping to just over .200, Ruf is at .267/.319/.512 on the year with 4HR and 15RBI. Ruf is striking out in around 26% of his AB’s, but is showing a good deal of recent improvement. Some strange splits, as Ruf is at .091 vs. LH and .154 with RISP. His defense in LF has been surprisingly adequate. Continue reading Lehigh Valley Weekly Report →

Box Score Recap – 4/29/2013

Box Score Recap

Shane Watson hit around pretty badly in his start – 7R (6 earned) on 6hits, (four of them Homeruns), no walks and 2Ks in 3IP; Kelly Dugan goes yard to continue his good start back from injury; and Cesar Hernandez with another 3 hits to lift his AVG to .380. His BABIP is .443 – unsustainable, even with line drives ticking up a little over last year. He has had several seasons around .350-.360 BABIP, so while 2013 will come back to earth, (at least 80 points or so, most likely), he has played full years getting balls through or beating them out with his legs at an above average rate.

It doesn’t appear here, but Asheville stole 9 bases on Chace Numata and Kevin Brady/Jeb Stefan, which included a couple double steals and a throwing error by Numata. Anyway – not good.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 4/29/2013 →