All posts by giventofly41

Will Donald’s bat play at 3B?

Other Stuff

The reports on Jason Donald this fall remain the same. He’d be fine at shortstop, but he doesn’t have prototypical power to play third base, and he’d be more valuable to the Phillies in a trade. Well, lets consider the composite batting lines for the 3B position over the last few years

2008: .266/.336/.436
2007: .273/.342/.443
2006: .276/.347/.458
2005: .270/.338/.435

Of course, this line considers all players who appeared at 3B, its not a standard for players who started at the position and played a large chunk of games. So to do that, I looked at all 3B who had at least 400 PA in 2008. The line, when considering these 27 players, is

.271/.355/.457

This tells us a bit more, its not radically higher, but it is a bit higher. So then we have to figure out what kind of hitter Jason Donald is in the majors.

Career: .297/.384/.459
2008: .307/.391/.497

Donald’s 2008 was his best minor league season, betting his numbers across the board, while doing it in AA. Is he a .280/.360/.460 hitter in the majors? If he is, then he’d be a league average 3B. I guess time will tell.

Initial look at Rule 5 draft

Rule 5 Draft

As you know, the Rule 5 draft is next month, and the Phillies have had some success in that area, notably Shane Victorino in recent years. I believe the deadline to set 40 man rosters, ie, protect players, is sometime at the end of November. Here’s how things look right now

* The 40 man on the Phillies site doesn’t appear updated. 38 players on the 40 man roster, 2 open slots. This includes Burrell, Tad Iguchi and Jamie Moyer, who I believe have already filed for free agency, as well as Rudy Seanez, who isn’t coming back. Scott Eyre is also a FA and listed. So we’re at like 33, but its likely Eyre is coming back, as is Moyer. Burrell is less certain.

* The prospects currently protected; Bisenius, Carpenter, Happ, Mathieson, Jaramillo, Marson, Harman, and Golson.

* The rules, in terms of number of years a player can play before being placed on the 40 man relates to year drafted and age when drafted. 18 year olds (so basically prep players) must be placed on the 40 man after their 5th season, 19 year olds or older (college guys, essentially), must be placed on after their 4th season. I believe that’s accurate, based on what I’ve found before. So for the sake of the Phillies, we’re looking at guys who were drafted/signed out of high school or Latin America and debuted in 2004, and college guys drafted in 2005. By my count, that means

Carlos Carrasco, RHP (signed in 2003, debuted in 2004, which is when his contract started)
Brett Harker, RHP (5th rd, 2005, College of Charleston)
Jeremy Slayden, OF (8th rd, 2005, Georgia Tech)
Clay Harris, INF (9th rd, 2005, LSU)
Pat Overholt, RHP (22nd rd, Santa Clara)

Its pretty obvious why the Phillies sent Slayden and Overholt to Arizona. If they perform well, they are likely to be protected, if they struggle against better prospects, they might be left unprotected, depending on the number of spots needed for trades and the like. Its obvious Carrasco will be protected, the others, I’m not so sure.

Upcoming schedule/Question 1

Scheduling

Just a brief upate here, and then the first of a series of questions as we adresss the farm system. I’ll be out of town through the end of the weekend, and when I return I’ll get back into the swing of things. I’m planning to start the Reader Top 30 in the beginning of December, which will coincide with the end of the Arizona Fall League. Last year’s incarnation was a success, and it will be a fun exercise again this year, especially since we have more regular readers and contributors. I’m also going to get in touch with the contributors from this past season and try to figure out what next year will look like, and then I’ll search for new correspondants if they are needed. So, with that said, here is question #1.

With the Phillies winning the World Series, and with Carlos Ruiz seemingly handling the pitching staff in the manner he did, what does 2009 look like for Lou Marson?

State your case in the comments, and be respectful of the opinions of others.

Phillies promote Amaro, lose Arbuckle

Other Stuff

The guy who is largely responsible for overseeing the drafting of the nucleus of this team was allowed to walk out the door, and baseball lifer Ruben Amaro Jr was promoted to General Manager today. At least he was only given a 3 year deal. I’m too tired to rant about how bad a decision I think this is, but until he screws things up in a big way, I guess I won’t complain. I’m assuming I’ll have material by February. Then again, I was seemingly wrong about Chuck LaMar as well, so who knows.

The Phillies are world champions

Other Stuff

Hats off to the players, coaches, and everyone associated with the team. And a big tip of the cap to the Phillies scouting and player development guys who assembled this roster, loaded with homegrown talent. Soak it in everyone.

The Blanton Trade, revisited

Trade Discussion

At this point, I’m not sure if I should even devote a post to wrapping up Lehigh Valley. Happ pitched well, he made it to Philly, and at this point, he’s a finished product. Jason Jaramillo struggled early, hit for a decent average in the 2nd half of the season, and isn’t much of a prospect at this point, barring a big turnaround. Carlos Carrasco was promoted from Reading and pitched real well over a small sample. There ya go. So instead of devoting this space to Lehigh Valley, I figured I’d just mention a few things regarding the Joe Blanton trade.

Continue reading The Blanton Trade, revisited →

Affiliate Review; Reading

6. Reading

Let’s get back on track today with the review of the 2008 Reading Phillies. If you’re late to the party, you’ll want to read the other reviews, where you’ll learn more about the statistics I’m using.

GCL Phillies
Williamsport
Lakewood
Clearwater

So, here we go…

Continue reading Affiliate Review; Reading →

Technial difficulties with wordpress

Other Stuff

As you’ve noticed, the left side of the site is messed up. This seems to be a problem across wordpress, so I have no way to fix it. Hopefully wordpress gets this resolved soon. I’ll be back tomorrow with the Reading review. For today, here’s an open question for discussion. What will happen with Lou Marson next season? Will he start out on the 25 man roster? Will he be a mid season callup? Will he spend all year at AA or AAA? Will he be traded in the offseason? Make your case here, and we can re-visit this next winter to see who got it right.

Affiliate Review: Clearwater

5. Clearwater

Today we resume our look at the Phillies affiliates with a stop in Clearwater. As with before, I’ll hit on the key position players and pitchers at the level, both good and bad, to try and get a handle on the best and most disappointing performances. If you’re just tuning in, here’s the progress we’ve made thus far;

GCL Phillies
Williamsport
Lakewood

So, here we go

Continue reading Affiliate Review: Clearwater →

Affiliate Review: Lakewood

4. Lakewood

At this point, you know the drill, so lets not waste any time.

Michael Taylor, OF: .361/.441/.554

Taylor’s exploits have been well covered this season, and for good reason. Taylor couples a good walk rate (10.8%) with a fairly low K rate (14.9%) for a slugger, and then you add in the .193 ISO and the .345 SecA and you have the best prospect at Lakewood, and one of the better statistical seasons in the SAL. The big caveat for Taylor was his age, but he took some of that sting out by continuing to rake at Clearwater, where he was closer to age appropriate.

Continue reading Affiliate Review: Lakewood →