Today we’ll continue the review of the Phillies affiliates in 2008 with a stop in Williamsport. As with the GCL review, I want to hit on 5 key performances both on the offensive side and the pitching side and then maybe a few quick hits. Someone had mentioned in the GCL review a question about DICE and what it was. To get the full info, just read this. Its not accurate to assume that you can compare all ERA’s on one team and say that they are adjusted for defense because all the pitchers played in front of the same defense. DICE just eliminates this blip because its defense-independent. It makes it easier to compare players on different teams as well, which is really one of the biggest benefits of prospect evaluation and using a system like I’ve developed. So anyway, onto the review.
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Affiliate Review: GCL Phillies
Today I’m going to start my reviews of the 6 Phillies minor league affiliates. I was originally planning to do something more in depth, but I haven’t quite finished my new system yet. Its to the point where I can use it to discuss the players in fairly good detail, but I still have more work to do before I churn out Top 30’s and get into the final analysis of our prospects heading into 2009. So what I’m going to do is talk about the 5 best performances for hitters and the 5 best performances for pitchers at the level, and then cover any high profile players who didn’t fall in that range. It should be easy to follow, so lets get started.
Overvalued prospects in 2008
The last two days we looked at guys who may have performed better than their surface numbers would indicate, so today we’ll look at a few guys who maybe are overvalued based on their surface numbers. Don’t take offense if someone you love ends up here, as I’m sure we have different methods to evaluate prospects. Affiliate wrapups start Monday.
Undervalued pitchers in 2008
As promised, today we’ll dig into the pitching aspect and try to find out who might have performed a bit better that what we see on the surface, ie, just looking at ERA and WHIP and wins. The main statistic I’ll use today is DICE, which I’ve discussed before. DICE is basically a form of component ERA which tries to determine what a pitcher’s ERA should have been based on the hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs he allowed. It’s a good indicator of luck, which pitchers were fortunate and which got a bit unlucky. For a more detailed explanation, go here. And again, just a reminder, this is mainly to try and find guys who are undervalued. A guy like Carlos Carrasco was expected to pitch well, so he’s not really undervalued.
Undervalued positional players in 2008
Kind of a lame title for today’s article, but essentially I wanted to point out 3 players who kind of had under the radar seasons. Guys we didn’t focus on, or that we maybe focused on in a not so positive light. I’ll explain all of the choices using some of the new statistics I’ve been focusing on as well as using the more basic numbers. I decided to narrow it down to 3, so lets get started…
Scheduling note
Here is what I have in mind for the rest of the week:
Wednesday – Undervalued positional performances in 2008
Thursday – Undervalued pitching performances in 2008
Friday – GCL review/introduction of my new prospect evaluation system
I’ve been spending a lot of time working on my new system, and I’ll start to explain it/unveil it on Friday. My goal is to do a review of each affiliate, and my Top 30 this year will be heavily influenced by how the player fares in my new system. Eventually I’ll do a Top 30 prospects for every team, but obviously won’t go into the same detail as I will for the Phillies list. My plan is to start the Reader Top 30 for 2009 sometime after the AFL ends, in between the holidays when we have some down time.
Hawaii Winter Baseball update
Quick update on the progress of our 3 guys in Hawaii
Michael Taylor: 15 AB — .133/.350/.333 — 5 BB — 2 K — 1 HR — 1 SB
Dominic Brown: Has not played (at least I don’t see his name on the stat sheet)
Chris Kissock: 5.0 IP — 1.80 ERA — 0 H — 2 BB — 4 K
Off the grid, version 2.0
I’ll be moving tomorrow, and as a result, won’t be able to update the site for a little while. I have no clue when I’ll be back, it could be a week, maybe 2 weeks, maybe less. gregg has offered to post updates on the AFL once that gets started, and if any of the other contributors want to start a daily discussion thread, they’re free to do that as well. Once I get settled in at my new abode, I’ll have a bunch of things to discuss, including the minor league analysis tool I’ve been spending all my time building. So until then……
Michael Taylor in BA Top 20 for FSL
Coming in at 10th.
Nothing really new in the scouting report. Impressive tools, breakout performance, etc etc. Keeping things up to date.
GCL
4. Jason Knapp
7. Sebastian Valle
8. Zach Collier
13. Anthony Hewitt
NYPL
5. Travis D’Arnaud
SAL
15. Michael Taylor
FSL
10. Michael Taylor
And the nail in the coffin, Adrian Cardenas came in at #5. This was the most damaging part
The biggest question with Cardenas centers around his best defensive position. His struggles turning the double play limit his potential at second base, and his lateral movement and footwork probably won’t allow him to play shortstop. His arm is strong enough for his third base, and his bat would fit there as well.
bah.
My biggest surprise/disappointment of 2008
You’ve given your opinion on biggest surprise and biggest disappointment, now I’ll go ahead and give my take. I gave this a good deal of thought, and I tried to distinguish between guys I wasn’t that high on (Carpenter and Golson), guys I expected to struggle (Galvis, Mattair) and focus more on guys that I had real high hopes for. I’ll give my biggest disappointment/surprise as well as two runners’ up for each, and then a little bonus at the end. So, lets get to it.
Phuture Phillies 