As promised, today we’ll dig into the pitching aspect and try to find out who might have performed a bit better that what we see on the surface, ie, just looking at ERA and WHIP and wins. The main statistic I’ll use today is DICE, which I’ve discussed before. DICE is basically a form of component ERA which tries to determine what a pitcher’s ERA should have been based on the hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs he allowed. It’s a good indicator of luck, which pitchers were fortunate and which got a bit unlucky. For a more detailed explanation, go here. And again, just a reminder, this is mainly to try and find guys who are undervalued. A guy like Carlos Carrasco was expected to pitch well, so he’s not really undervalued.
1. Kyle Slate, RHP — Slate, an obscure 37th round pick in 2007, pitched only 2 innings last summer in his debut, and pitched 27 innings in 2008, again pitching in the GCL. Slate had a ridiculous 29:2 K to BB ratio, and allowed 28 hits in the 27.1 innings he pitched. He did allow 3 HR, which is a bit too high. His actual ERA was 4.55, but his DICE was only 2.96. He showed swing and miss ability, and even though he’s 19 and should have been in Williamsport, he’s still young enough to not be considered that out of line. He’s listed at 6’5, 200 lbs, a nice pitcher’s frame with some room to fill out. The one area of concern is that he induced only 30% groundballs compared to 46% flyballs.
2. Edgar Garcia, RHP — If you’ve been around here a while, you know I’m a big fan of Edgar Garcia. Based on all the reports, his stuff is very real, but his biggest issue is consistency, not only from start to start, but inning to inning. At 20 years old, he was one of the youngest pitchers in the Eastern League this year after being promoted. He predictably struggled, but he’s still shown flashes of his ability. He struggled with his control at AA, but prior to his promotion had flashed the same control we’ve come to know him for, issuing only 2.28 BB/9. He also struck out 7.96/9 at Clearwater, again a league in which he was younger than the average prospect. He didn’t carry those numbers over at Reading, but he struggled in general. His ERA at Clearwater was 3.97, compared to a DICE of 3.37, over half a run difference. His ERA at Reading was a bloated 8.22, compared to a DICE of 5.62, over a 2.5 run difference. So obviously on the surface, things didn’t go well. But he still has some of the best control in the system, his raw stuff is excellent, and as he matures, and if he can find a way to be more consistent, I still think we’re looking at a mid-rotation arm, not bullpen fodder/#5 starter.
3. Justin De Fratus, RHP — If you’re a phuture phillies veteran, you also know about my Justin De Fratus boosting tendencies. Following up on a nice GCL debut, De Fratus pitched very well in Williamsport. While he didn’t sustain his ridiculous 34:3 K to BB ratio, he still limited walks to 2.71/9, much better than the league average of 3.37, and he continued to generate swings and misses, striking out 8.01 per 9. De Fratus’ ERA was 3.67, not a bad number, but his DICE was only 2.35, a difference of about 1.3 runs per 9. If he continues to flash plus control and continues to rack up strikeouts as he moves up the ladder, he’ll continue to make these kinds of lists.
I actually changed my mind on tomorrow’s scheduled output. Instead of starting with league recaps, I’m going to just devote tomorrow to mentioning a few guys who might be overvalued, sticking with the theme of over/undervalued prospects. So check back for that tomorrow.
Phuture Phillies 
I’m a big fan of Slate. He’s extremely raw still, but last I heard, they took away his best pitch until he learned how to throw other pitches. I don’t know if they’ve let him go back to it or not, but I think he’s definitely a guy to watch. I hope he starts at Lakewood next year, but he’ll probably go to XST and W’Port.
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WOW!!!
Unlike yesterday, where all 3 of your guys would have been further down my list for the “discussion topic”, today you selected 3 guys that I believe have a future in the Bigs.
Maybe I am just more prone to select & project pitchers than position players.
Obviously, I agree with your selections & analysis.
Tx
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Ducky: here’s the article you’re referring to. I’d been wondering the same thing; if Slate’s best pitch really is the splitter, and he hasn’t thrown it in game situations, then he might not just be an undervalued prospect, but a Top 30 prospect in the system.
Honestly, that would be a great question for someone around instructs to ask. Would Laura, Jeff, airborneranger, or someone else mind asking Kyle if he’s throwing the split if they get a chance? Thanks in advance.
And James: I guess I’m willing to wait until next week for the affiliate review, but you’re really testing my patience here, man… (ha kidding).
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Slates g/f ratio doesnt concern me. One of the greatest
error is thinking ground ball pitchers are better in Philly.
Acutally a flyball pitcher like Happ can have a greater advantage if he keeps the ball in park(see Happ at Reading)
Since the outflield area is so much smaller any ball in the air
has a better chance of being caught then say Florida.
No one seems to talk about Mike Cisco so he is my choice.
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Don’t see how Garcia can make the list. He is one of the biggest studs on the pharm and one of our largest Latin American bonuses ($500K). His stats have always suffered from being super-young for his league — pitching in AA is just filthy. This is not a recent arrival on the prospect scene — BA had him as our #4 prospect after the 2006 season and slipping to #14 after 2007. With the trading of Cardenas and Outman and good numbers at CLW, I’m guessing Garcia comes in around #10 this year. Hardly under the radar.
I like Slate and have a little love for DeFratus.
Some unheralded pitchers to replace Garcia:
Justin Pope at Reading — age 28, but 1.07 WHIP
CLW 24-year olds Cruse, Walls, and Harker — old for A+, but nice numbers that could see them in Phillies middle relief some day
22-yr old Zack Sterner at Lakewood walks too many, but otherwise very nice numbers with a filthy oba
22-year old Yohan Flande at GCL CLW — too old for the year, but filthy stats
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Nowheels: a pitcher’s GB% should definitely concern you. Yes, fly balls are converted into outs a greater percentage of the time than are ground balls, but ground balls don’t become extra base hits and home runs. A fly ball pitcher doesn’t really have control over whether or not he keeps the ball in the ballpark — a certain percentage of fly balls (usually between 6% and 10%, I believe) invariably leave the yard, especially in a park like CBP.
Allentown: Garcia certainly isn’t under the radar, but I think he is undervalued. The kid made it to Double-A in his Age 20 season, but it seems like people spend more time talking about Carpenter, Stutes, Brummett, etc.
Oh, and completely agree on Flande. Certainly old for the GCL, but he’s a lefty who keeps the ball on the ground. He’s an intriguing name to watch going forward.
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Not always explain why Happ gave up 2 hr at small park
Reading. The point is some people think it is Gospel
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Phils batters have flourish in this park because they are low ball hitters. And this park is what we are all aiming at isnt it
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I agree with Garcia, no one seems to talk about him, but he is a person of interest for all the reasons listed. Even though he is ranked in the top teens/low 10’s you have to ask is that high enough after you really look at him, what he’s done and what he’s capable of doing.
I’m still curious why the Phillies take it slow with so many guys but threw Garcia into AA at 20? They must see something in his makeup that blows them away.
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In the past, the phillies position has been to take away the split from kids until they hit AA. Hard to say though, because the guys they took it away from never really amounted to much at AA or anything else. Lee Gwaltney was a guy in college who notably had a good split. In slate’s case, it get to a point, where if it were really that valuable of a pitch to him, they would allow him a few a game by the time he got to clearwater. More or less, they just don’t like young kids throwing a splitter.
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Good point Rodeo /the phils thinking is odd. They move a youngster and sit on college players
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Friar because 8% of flyballs go out doesnt mean they came off
of flyball pitchers that is comingling stats. I respect you view just think a little further for vyourself
e.g.higher then intended fastball vs higher then intended breaking pitch
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But nowheels: I’ll try to give a statistical example here. Let’s assume an average of 7% of flyballs leave the yard (I don’t have the exact numbers, but that’s in the ballpark); and further, that’s nothing a pitcher can really do to control whether the ball leaves the yard or not (it’s down to luck).
So let’s compare Vance Worley and Antonio Bastardo over a sample size of 200 batters faced (roughly a month and a half worth of hitters). Here are their respective GB and FB ratios…
Worley — 57.8% GB / 27.7% FB
Bastardo — 29.8% GB / 53.9% FB
Obviously a lot more balls hit in the air against Bastardo. Let’s even account for the fact that Bastardo strikes out more hitters than Worley by giving their K% and BB%…
Worley — 22% K / 3% BB
Bastardo — 27% K / 11% BB
Now let’s extrapolate that over 200 hitters. Worley will strike out 44 of those hitters and walk 6; Bastardo will strike out 54 and walk 22. That means that 150 balls will be in play against Worley (while he’s given up just 6 baserunners), while 124 balls will be in play against Bastardo (while he’s given up 22 baserunners). Here’s the numbers…
Worley — 87 GB / 19 LD / 41 FB
Bastardo — 37 GB / 16 LD / 67 FB
Okay, finally — sorry I’m rambling on here — let’s use that 8% number, and we arrive at this…
Worley — 3.3 HR
Bastardo — 5.3 HR
That may not seem like a ton, but consider that Bastardo’s putting a ton of men on base via the BB, and he’s very rarely wiping out baserunners with a GIDP, and you can see why this is a huge, HUGE problem. Worley may give up more seeing eye singles, but he’ll limit the big innings and put up a better line overall. Think of Worley as Derek Lowe, and of Bastardo as… well, there isn’t a starting pitcher in the majors with that kind of a FB%. So let’s say, think of Bastardo as a homeless man’s Oliver Perez — a lot more fly balls, home runs, and walks. (This is not to wish ill of Bastardo here; just making a point.)
Alright, apologies for rambling, but I wanted to get my point across: flyball ratios do matter, especially for borderline-type prospects.
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All I am saying is each player has to be looked at separately
If you could chart exactly where each FB landed it would define an envelop and if that envelop falls within the confines of a small stadium like philly he is your man.
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I see your point but fastball pitchers usually get more Ks.
I set the standard at 2.5 g.\f and those guys are rare e.g.
Romero (what the hell was Boston thinking besides activating
Timlin)
p.s funny off the grid note check out Romero’s last game for Boston
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