Arizona Fall League Update

While I am not going to get into the won-loss record of the Mesa Solar Sox, lets take a look at the performance of the Phillies prospects who are playing in the AFL, a league that clearly has good talent and competition.  Mesa has now played three games and Jason Donald has appeared in all three with a start at SS and a start at 3B.  Thus far he is hitting .143(1-7), with 2 strikeouts in his 7 at-bats.  He has also been caught stealing once.  So far, so good in the field, with limited chances thus far.  Outfielder Jeremy Slayden has received one start, going 2-4, with a double and an RBI.

Three pitching prospects has thrown thus far.  Tyson Brummett worked in relief, a role he is not used to and went 1.1 innings giving up a run on 2 hits, while striking out one, taking the loss in yesterdays’ game.  Sergio Escalona also threw 1.1 innings in relief giving up a run on one hit and struck out 2.  Pat Overholt, likely to be in Lehigh Valley next year, threw a shutout inning, allowing one hit and a walk in the game yesterday.

Look for another update Monday or Tuesday.

35 thoughts on “Arizona Fall League Update

  1. Another update, courtesy of a Keith Law chat on ESPN

    Robert (Philadelphia): I see Jason Donald is at 3B in AFL. Is that a realistic spot for him long-term- I guess there is little chance for him in Philly at SS or 2B unless Howard is traded.

    Keith Law: I don’t think his bat profiles at 3b. He can handle it defensively, but he has below-average power and he’s not likely to post a .400 OBP or 50 doubles to balance that out.

    …honestly, that’s good news in my mind. I’d like to see Donald as the utility infielder and primary RH pitch hitter on the Phils next year, so if he can handle 3B (and you’d have to assume he can handle 2B), then it’s a real possibility.

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  2. Agree, I don’t really care if his bat projects as a typical 3B.

    If he can hit .280 with an OPS around .800 and play solid defense that puts him in the upper half of regular major league 3B and is more than enough for what the Phillies need with the rest of their line-up.

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  3. Now I think that I am nuts. Donald doesn’t project at third.mostly based on his power . On phillies nation I was rip for not liking felix because of his offense and lack of range/ They said he isn’t expected to hit for this team. yet law a respected writer tells you need to have power and average to play the position.

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  4. I also don’t care if his bat projects as typical 3B power. Clearly Bell, Nunez, and Feliz don’t project as such either, so the Phillies have paid quite a lot of $ and foregone prospects for quite a few years now to bring in outsiders without the typical 3B bat. Does a home-grown kid get a chance only if he projects to be the next Schmidt or Rolen? Far better to lay out $10 mill for a couple of seasons of an iffy vet. I’ll regard Donald’s lack of HR power as eliminating him from 3B consideration when the Phillies brass trots out an alternative with a power bat. Don’t hold your breath.

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  5. I think the phillies will give donald a chance. Felix is not a big contract. So I believe going into spring it’s a open postion at third

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  6. Nice day for Phils prospects in the AFL

    Donald 2-3, 3B, 2 Runs, RBI, BB
    Slayden 1-3, HR, 3 RBI
    Overholt 2 Innings, 0 Hits, 0 Runs, 1 BB, 2 K’s

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  7. Feliz has demonstrated the ability to hit the long ball, drive in runs in the past and his defense is outstanding. So ask yourself, is Donald a marked improvement? He is not. So the best he can hope for is to win Bruntlett role. Maybe he should be play some outfield?

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  8. Robert (Philadelphia): I see Jason Donald is at 3B in AFL. Is that a realistic spot for him long-term- I guess there is little chance for him in Philly at SS or 2B unless Howard is traded.

    Keith Law: I don’t think his bat profiles at 3b. He can handle it defensively, but he has below-average power and he’s not likely to post a .400 OBP or 50 doubles to balance that out.

    …honestly, that’s good news in my mind. I’d like to see Donald as the utility infielder and primary RH pitch hitter on the Phils next year, so if he can handle 3B (and you’d have to assume he can handle 2B), then it’s a real possibility.

    This is something that has always killed me. This idea of what the Prototype 3B has to be. Sure it would be great if we had a young “Scott Rolen type” 3B prospect in the system but how many teams in the league have a 30+ home run 3B in the Majors right now. There are a heck of a lot more “David Bells” out there than what would fit in most peoples idea of what a 3B is supposed to be.
    With one more year of Pedro Feliz(not a prototype 3B) it would be just plain stupid to not give Jason Donald a shot to fill in at 3B.
    Keith Law needs to check and see how many 3B have either 30 HR’s, 50 2B’s or 400 OBP. He’s describing a star 3B, not a solid one.

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  9. Donald hit 14 hr in 362 abs I dont regard that as lack of power
    in a then 23 year old. The next two years will tell as he matures. He did hit two in a spring training game for the Phils and they were not dinkers. Patience

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  10. Airbornranger I can’t understand how people say felix defense is outstanding. He can’t charge a ball and make the play. he can’t go to his left. In the ninth inning in milk. did you see is reaction to the ball to his left ,

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  11. Sorry darn computer. I think if it’s at him he is good, and a accurate arm. but becasue of his lack of athlethism he has no guick relex to be consider outstanding. Wright is outstanding, cat guick great arm gets to balls felix wouldn’t touch.

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  12. rocky–feliz is a better fielder than you are a typer. Feliz had the second best fielding pct. in the NL, and the third best range factor and zone rating. He’s no Brooks Robinson, but I don’t think converting a shortstop with a limited offensive profile is the answer for a team that will be contending again. All that aside, the Phils have never shown a willingness to swallow contracts. Assuming they break form and do indeed eat Eaton’s contract, do you really think they’re going to dump Feliz’ $4.5MM as well? Highly doubtful. I think Donald profiles as a cheap alternative to Bruntlett next year.

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  13. Listen to puko, Feliz is actually very good at fielding, and I can’t remember who said it but he could play shortstop if needed. He has range. This is from Keith Law’s report on the Phillies.

    ” Utley and Feliz are among the best in the game at their positions; Feliz could easily play shortstop, while Utley combines sure hands and solid range at a position where many teams eschew defense for more thump.”

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  14. Puko you must be a college grad. First remark is about a persons grammer or typing. You are just like a lot of people who think they know baseball. Anyone who looks at fielding percentage and rates a play, Knows nothing about the game. Pat burrell made two errors. You want to tell me he is a great left fielder no range speed doesn’t get to most balls. other left fielder get to so take fielding percentage argument and sell it to someone else. Big red how can you come on this blog and try to sell a slow footed player who has no range and sell him as a shortstop .there must be a full moon tonight.

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  15. I stand by my judgement of Feliz. Rockey, I can think of a several slow footed shortstop who many thought didn’t have the tools. Cal Ripken comes to mind. I asked if Donald would be a marked improvement and the answer has to be no. I’m not saying that Donald won’t be a valuable player someday. I believe he will be. My take is that Dobbs moves to left replacing Burrell and either Bruntlett or Donald backup Feliz when they pinch hit for him. So in effect, if Donald shows up in spring training he get So or Bruntlett’s job.

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  16. No Bruntlett Ranger please! He was a second half flop.
    Stat show Feliz fielding about the same as Chipper that is not good. I could live with a lot except his OBP. With Ruiz in the lineup that is a big deep hole.

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  17. I got into a little discussion about Feliz with PP at the beginning of the year. I argued that Feliz was a decent, but limited, offensive player. I was wrong about that and PP was right – Feliz, while adept in the field, is really a pretty bad offensive player, although he seems to be okay in the clutch. Clearly, Feliz is a stopgap while the team finds another, better, long-term option.

    As for Donald, if he can handle it in the field, I would like to think that, beginning sometime next year, he will be a better option than Feliz. As for his lack of power, I saw Donald play and he crushed a ball out of the Reading park to the opposite field. You don’t see that happen unless a player has pretty good power. Donald is going to surprise people – he has a fairly complete package, and while he won’t hit 30 home runs, he could easily end up in the 16-25 range, with a lot of double and a fair number of walks. What I think is equally important is that this is precisely the type of player the team needs in order to balance the extraordinary number of strikeouts generated by the big bats in the line-up.

    One other thought – as I watch this team, I realize our current shortcomings are catcher and 3B. Marson will soon begin to solve the catching deficiency and I expect the team will want to give Donald the opportunity to solve the 3B problem or at least transition to that point over a year or two. I agree that having Donald as the utility guy over Bruntlett (I think I’ll scream the next time I see him hitting after Utley and Howard because he came in so early in the game as a defensive replacement) makes an awful lot of sense. Frankly, I really like the way the Phillies are setting this all up (Marson gets late call-up – Donald tries different positions in the AFL) – it makes a lot of sense.

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  18. I agree decent not outstanding. In my opinion cal ripken wasn’t a outstanding shortstop defensely. Great offense. Watch Jimmy Rollins play short. In the milaukee game everyone remembers the last play.To me the great play was when he was in position to field a grounder and it hit the cutoff. The ball went from knee high to head level and he made the play. I really haven’t seen a lot of donald but from what I have read. Can’t believe he wouldn’t hit enough to be a solid seventh hitter.I still think Mattair might become a player. All the scouting reports tend to say he will hit.Airbornranger how many times have you seen donald to get the opinion that he couldn’t handle the postion next year. What are his short comings in you judgement.

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  19. Good point about decisions Ranger. Everyone had a different screw up and they were all mostly true. The Phils won because of about ten good player not management. The thing that helped the Met management was worse and Florida’s management is still in wonderland until they start the stadium.
    Once they get all the Wayne/Braman stuff out of the way, then they will play baseball.
    In today’s game you have to balance older players and youth unless you are Boston or the Yanks

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  20. Has anyone seen the instructional league yet. Wonder if Cosart has got to throw in front of anyone on this blog.

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  21. rocky–exactly why I pointed to range factor and zone rating. I obviously know fielding pct. is a limited stat, which is why I pointed to some advanced metrics. Does your computer even have a question mark key? You pretty much read the first ten words I wrote and disregarded everything else. Makes your arguments that much less credible, but I’m not here to fight. Just curious if you really think a contending team would be better off with a converted rookie shortstop playing 3B than a guy who’s played it well for years. No hard feelings, bud.

    P.S. College degree and MBA, but I learned to type in high school. Peace!!!

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  22. Donald may not be a typical 3B if he can make the transistion, but does the Phils lineup really need someone who can hit 260+/30Hrs? If they added someone who just got hits 280+ or a high OBP, then he could add balance to the lineup. There is already alot of Hrs and XBH in the lineup, so taking a flier on someone who may or maynot be an improvement power wise but likely an improvement in OBP and BA is worth it. However I do not see him breaking with the team just yet as the 3B or as a Util IF either. With Bruntlett, Dobbs, Feliz, and maybe Iguchi on the roster there may not be room for him just yet.

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  23. Puko It’s a shame you didn’t learn the meaning of the word Respect. When you were in high school. You can almost allways tell the college people “no common sense’. Instead of the talking about the subject they try to win with downing someone ,grammer, or education.

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  24. From Espn’s Jason Grey on the Hawaii Winter Baseball:

    Michael Taylor is a big, 6-foot-6 outfielder the Phillies took in the fifth round in 2007. He hit .346 with 19 homers and a .557 slugging percentage across two levels of Class A ball this year. He looked in much better shape from when I saw him in the past, and is an intriguing name to watch. His swing is a bit long and his bat speed isn’t that great, but he has good pitch recognition and could start generating more buzz next year.

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  25. Echoing allentown, even though I may be in the minority here, in Philly, we have a luxury in that we have a 2B/SS combo that will hit somewhere between 45-60 HRs. As a result, in my opinion, we do not have to worry about power projections for guys like Jason Donald. On this team, we do not need to worry if he doesn’t hit 25-30 HRs. The fact of the matter is we need to try him at third to see if he has the glove and arm for third, a position of need. If he can maintain an above average OBP and play a good 3B, he may be the major league answer at 3B, as the only other prospect at 3B we have worth noting is Mattair and he is at least 3-4 years away based on the past 2 years. It is important that we get a good look at Donald at 3B in AAA.

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  26. I don’t think it’s a question of Donald replacing Feliz next year, it’s a question of can Donald replace Bruntlett next year? Yes, he can.

    Then Donald will have the opportunity to answer the question of can he replace Feliz when his contract is up. The big club has enough power, what it needs is better OBP from the bottom of the lineup. Feliz has been clutch and plays good defense but does that overshadow his low OBP? I don’t think so. If players like Marson and Donald can carry their strong OBP into the majors it will be a marked improvement on what has been a big part of the team’s ills this year.

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  27. Burrell I am wondering if Taylor doesn’t have great bat speed. That is a concern to me. Just thinking, most of the time when I read about prospects. Bat speed is mention when they talk about good hitting prospect. Am I wrong ?

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  28. Usually bat speed means a lot when catching up to a plus fastball, but the fact that he has good plate discipline and pitch recognition makes up for that. Basically, Greg Golson has good bat speed but zero discipline and recognition so all he can hit is fastballs right down the middle, but a guy like Taylor, although maybe unable to catch up with a great fastball (that not everyone has), will be able to recognize a changeup or breaking ball and be able to drive it somewhere. As opposed to Golson who can’t recognize a good breaking pitch, let alone hit it hard somewhere. So in a nutshell bat speed is important, but I would venture to say pitch recognition and plate discipline are more important.

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  29. In response to Rodeo, I understand what you are saying about replacing Bruntlett, but if we do not really have an idea abotu whether Donald can handle 3B now, it’s probably best he logs a number of games at 3B in Triple AAA and continue his progression at the plate (specifically OBP) rather than sit on the bench in Philly (at least for awhile). In otehr words, I’d rather see him play everyday at 3B in Allentown, then languish on the bench behind Feliz and Dobbs. Bruntlett only played 27 games there this season (presumably the majority came while Feliz was hurt). So even if Donald can beat out Bruntlett, he wouldn’t be getting a lot of time 3B, and we would not be in any position to properly evaluate him there. Presumably, we will be a contender next year as well and wouldn’t want him learning on the job in the majors in any event. I would want to see him go through at least 2-3 months of work at 3B in Triple A, before I think about recalling him. I would also want him to keep his confidence at the plate, which is easier in a Triple A than a jump to the majors, especially if we have an eye on him changing positions.

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  30. Valid point Macho. It’s probably more likely that he will start at AAA playing all over the infield. I don’t think anyone here projects him to be an elite player but I think it’s reasonable to wonder whether he can be a league-average 3B. As I noted I think that’s a question he’ll answer in the next year and will make the decision on replacing Feliz a lot clearer.

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  31. since this is the AFL update, its not too off-topic to note that Dominic Brown is 6-12 in his first four games in hawaii, and has hit safely in each of them. He seems to be healing well from his shoulder injury that ended his season.

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  32. once again lunacy rules. i see howards name being bantied about as trade bait. are any of you aware your watching the greatest 1st baseman in phillies history. a future hall of famer. as far as donald goes there is absolutely no other position but 3rd for him as ive said all year. a team that leads the nl in hr,s doesnt need another 30-35 hr man. they need a guy who will hit 300 with 20 hrs and 80 rbis who can play a very good 3rd. a guy who gets his uniform dirty, thats donald, have any of you ever seen him play? 3 NEW GUYS NEXT YEAR donald, marson, and carrasco. next years staff hamels,myers,blanton,happ,carrasco. CONGRATS TO THE BEST TEAM IN THE NL. THE 2008 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES.

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  33. Well friends and foes again JD is outhitting big name prospects. As of saturday morning he second in the league
    to a much older prospect. The song “respect” keeps running thru my head. lol

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